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Markets Are “Sea Of Red” Amid “Total Meltdown In Anything Tech And Pandemic Winners”

Markets Are "Sea Of Red" Amid "Total Meltdown In Anything Tech And Pandemic Winners"

Futures, yields, oil, dollar, cryptos – everything is lower on this $3.1 trillion option expiration day…

… as US traders relocate from their bedroom..

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Markets Are "Sea Of Red" Amid "Total Meltdown In Anything Tech And Pandemic Winners"

Futures, yields, oil, dollar, cryptos - everything is lower on this $3.1 trillion option expiration day...

... as US traders relocate from their bedroom to their basement on the last day of the week, discovering a sea of red in most assets and a "total meltdown" in others. Emini S&P futures are down 0.5% or 22 points to 4,452 which by the way is well off the session lows which saw the S&P plunge as low as 4,429. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% or 122 and Dow futures are lower by 95 points or 0.25%, while European stocks touched the lowest level in a month weighed by miners, travel and leisure and automakers. 10Y TSY yields are at 1.778%, rising from 1.76% at the session lows, but down from Thuesday's close around 1.80%.

Cryptocurrencies crashed with Bitcoin trading below $38,000, the level that Mike Novogratz said is where he would be buying. Presumably he isn't doing so. Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, extends its decline to trade at around $2,750, in its longest daily losing streak since late July. Meanwhile, oil extends declines, with Brent falling 1.7% to below $87, while WTI falls over 2% to below $84 a barrel. Spot gold -0.4% to $1,832/oz, while the dollar also slips 0.1%.

“Risk appetite is widely down, and the cautious trading mood reflects the global uncertainty investors are now facing,” said  Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Sentiment is being driven down by monetary policies, uneven corporate results, a bigger Omicron impact on economies as well as rising geopolitical tensions between the USA and Russia over Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, a report that Washington is allowing some Baltic states to send U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine stoked concerns about a standoff with Russia. 

“The 2022 outlook for risky assets is likely to be more challenging as central bank accommodation is withdrawn,” said Mohit Kumar, managing director at Jefferies International. “We would wait for more clarity from the Fed before shifting our cautious stance on equities.”

Besides the huge negative gamma overhang (much of which will fade by EOD as trillions in options expire) and the prospect of rising interest rates weighing on investor sentiment, corporate earnings aren’t helping the mood with disappointing earnings from PPG Industry and CSX, while Netflix plunged 21% in premarket trading  as analysts cut their ratings and slash price targets after the streaming company’s first-quarter subscriber outlook missed estimates, prompting worries over slowing growth. Alibaba Group dropped in U.S. premarket trading as market participants weigh the stock impact of a report that China’s state broadcaster has implicated Jack Ma’s Ant Group in a corruption scandal. Expected data on Friday include Leading Index, while Huntington Bancshares, IHS Markit, Schlumberger are among companies reporting earnings. Here are all notable premarket movers:

  • Peloton (PTON US) shares rise 8.6% in U.S. premarket trading, set to rebound following Thursday’s 24% tumble in the wake of a CNBC report saying the company is temporarily halting production of bikes and treadmills over slow demand, which CEO John Foley later disputed in a memo to staff.
  • Apple’s (AAPL US) price target and estimates are raised at Wells Fargo ahead of the tech giant’s results next Thursday. The shares edge 0.1% lower in U.S. premarket trading.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) drops as much as 1.5% in U.S. premarket trading as market participants weigh the stock impact of FT report saying China’s state broadcaster has implicated Jack Ma’s Ant Group in a corruption scandal.
  • PPG (PPG US) fell 3% postmarket after the chemicals maker forecast adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate and cited “significantly higher operating costs.”
  • CSX (CSX US) shares dropped over 3.8% in postmarket trading as fourth-quarter profit and revenue beat was overshadowed by a miss in operating ratio, a measure of the railroad’s efficiency.

In Europe, stocks dropped to the lowest level in a month echoing Asia’s slump. Euro Stoxx 600 drops as much as 1.7% with most European cash indexes ~1% in the red.  Cyclical sectors such as basic resources, autos and travel led the declines, along with tech, while defensive stocks such as food, personal care and utilities outperformed. European e-commerce stocks fall on Friday, with Markets.com chief market analyst Neil Wilson noting the “total meltdown in anything tech and pandemic winners.” There’s a “huge momentum unwind” and “no one wants to touch them now,” with investors looking for defensive cash flows and value, Wilson writes in emailed comments: Naked Wines -6%, Home24 -5.4%, Global Fashion Group -5.2%, THG -3.5%, Moonpig -3.3%, Asos -3.2%, Made.com -2.9%, Allegro 2.6%, AO World -2.5%, Zalando -2.4%, Westwing -2.1%.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities resumed declines after a one-day reprieve, as global inflation concerns and the impact on borrowing costs weighed on technology stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.4%, dragged down by shares of chipmakers TSMC and Samsung, as the global tech selloff deepened. The regional benchmark was headed for a weekly drop of more than 1.7%, its steepest since late November. Read more: A Year’s Worth of Nasdaq Tumult Gets Jammed Into Three Weeks   Benchmarks fell across Asia, with Australia’s main gauge sliding more than 2% and Japan’s Topix narrowly missing a technical correction. Elevated energy costs and rising prices of other goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks have added to worries about faster-than-expected monetary-policy tightening. “A world shaped by supply constraints will bring more macro volatility,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Elga Bartsch wrote in a note. “Monetary policy cannot stabilize both inflation and growth: it has to choose between them.” Toyota also ranked among the biggest drags on the regional benchmark after the auto giant announced more production halts on rising Covid-19 cases. Alibaba dropped after a Financial Times report said China’s state broadcaster has implicated Jack Ma’s Ant Group in a corruption scandal

Indian stocks completed their biggest weekly decline since November, as concerns about policy moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a rally in crude oil prices dented investors’ appetite for riskier emerging market assets.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.7% to 59,037.18 in Mumbai, extending this week’s losses this to 3.6%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also fell 0.8% on Friday. Technology stocks were hammered for a fourth consecutive session, with the sector gauge ending with the worst weekly performance since April 2020. Infosys Ltd., down 2.1%, was the biggest drag on the key indexes. All but one of 19 sub-indexes fell, led by a gauge of realty stocks. As the Federal Reserve looks at tackling higher inflation, investors are grappling with the prospect of reduced stimulus that had driven flows into emerging markets and bolstered riskier assets.   “The likely Fed action and crude surge have been negative for sentiment after the market had a strong start to the year, and we expect this downward pressure to continue,” said A. K. Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital Ltd. “In earnings, tech results have been strong, but attrition is high, while for others, higher raw material costs are a drag.” Of the 13 Nifty 50 companies that have announced results so far, six have either met or exceeded expectations, six have missed and one can’t be compared. Reliance Industries Ltd., the nation’s most-valuable company, is scheduled to announce results in the day

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index slumped 2.3% to close at 7,175.80, its lowest level since June 1, following U.S. shares lower after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped into a correction. The Australian benchmark shed 3% this week amid anxiety over interest rates and the outlook for corporate earnings, capping its worst weekly performance since October 2020. Paladin Energy was the worst performer on Friday, plunging 11%, and Whitehaven fell after trimming its full-year managed ROM coal production forecast.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.2% to 12,348.00. The gauge lost 3.5% this week in its biggest such loss in 11 months

In rates, demand for havens pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 1.80%. Treasury futures are off session highs reached during Asia trading hours, hold modest gains from belly to long end, trimming yields by ~1bp vs Thursday’s closing levels. 10-year TSY yield around 1.775% is ~2bp richer on the day after dropping as low as 1.763% during Asia session; German 10- year outperforms by 1.2bp with Estoxx50 down 1.7%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; three-deal docket Thursday consisted entirely of banks for combined $5.4bn. Bunds bull flatten, richer by ~3bps at the long end; gilts bull steepen with the belly outperforming.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot dips 0.2% into the red. SEK and CHF are the best performers in G-10; NZD, AUD and GBP lag, with cable near session low of 1.3562, one tick above the 21-DMA at 1.3561. The Bloomberg dollar index slipped as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. The pound lagged most of its Group-of-10 peers, extending declines after data showed U.K. retail sales plummeted in December. BOE’s Mann to speak later. Sweden’s krona is the best G-10 performer as it retraces about half of yesterday’s deep losses that took it to an 18- month low against the greenback in the U.S. session after a triggering stop-losses and options barriers. Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened amid risk-off price action in stocks and commodities. The yen strengthened on haven demand; BOJ minutes of its December meeting showed one board member noting that policy adjustment now would be too early.

In commodities, crude futures are deep in the red, but off worst levels, after a surprise climb in U.S. crude stockpiles. The White House also said it can work to accelerate the release of strategic reserves. WTI regained a $84-handle, Brent trades back above $87. Spot gold drops ~$5 before finding support near $1,830/oz. Base metals are mostly in the green and up on the week. LME lead and tin outperform.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases included UK retail sales for December, which missed badly, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for December. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Mann.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,467.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 476.89
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 191.91
  • MXAPJ down 1.0% to 630.82
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,522.26
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,927.18
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 24,965.55
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,522.57
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 58,998.67
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.3% to 7,175.81
  • Kospi down 1.0% to 2,834.29
  • Brent Futures down 1.9% to $86.66/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,832.94
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.14% to 95.60
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.05%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1344
  • Brent Futures down 2.0% to $86.63/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve officials will signal next week they’ll raise interest rates in March for the first time in more than three years and shrink their balance sheet soon after, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said
  • The European Union is ripping up the green investing playbook with plans to allow some gas and nuclear projects to be called sustainable. The bloc is poised to include these kinds of power generation with conditions in its rulebook for sustainable activities, or taxonomy. That’s divided the fund community, as some worry their holdings will no longer be in line with the rules, while others think it’s a necessary compromise.
  • China is quietly urging banks to increase lending after a slow start to the year, ramping up efforts to combat the weakest economic expansion since early 2020
  • Italy’s papal-style vote for a new president each seven years is the culmination of Rome’s political intrigues and power games. For the first time, the process is attracting international interest as Prime Minister Mario Draghi is touted as a top contender for the job. Voting will start on Jan. 24 at 3 p.m. local time, and it is expected to last a few days
  • Iron ore futures climbed to the highest intraday level since October as China made it clear that it will take action to stabilize the economy, bolstering the demand outlook for the raw material

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia Pacific

  • APAC markets traded lower amid wide-spread risk aversion after late Wall Street selling . ASX 200 (-2.3%) underperformed as miners led the broad downturn.
  • Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) dropped more than 500 points intraday on currency strength but finished off lows
  • Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) downside was somewhat cushioned on subsequently confirmed reports of further PBoC action.
  • US equity futures traded with losses across the board: NQ underperformed post-Netflix earnings.

Top Asian News

  • Rising Cases Spark Covid Superspreader Fears in Hong Kong
  • Alibaba Drops in U.S. Premarket on Corruption Report Speculation
  • Playtech Sinks as Former F1 Boss Jordan Pulls Possible Offer
  • Coal Soars to $300 a Ton as Asia Scrambles for Power Plant Fuel

Europe

  • Major European bourses are pressured Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%; Stoxx 600 -1 5%. as the Wall St rally faded and reverberated through APAC trade . Although, the Stoxx 600 remains -0.5% on the week.
  • US futures have been lifting off overnight lows, though the NO continues to lag post-Netflix.
  • European sectors are all in the red. but defensives are faring slightly better than cyclicals

Top European News

  • U.K. Retail Sales Drop as Omicron Keeps Shoppers Away
  • Lotus Explores Electric-Car Battery Tie-Up With Britishvolt
  • Amazon’s Alexa Voice Assistant Reportedly Suffers Europe Outages
  • Greece Is Great Place to Be in Rough January for Europe Stocks

FX

  • Franc finally evades SNB clutches to rally and outshine other safe-haven currencies.
  • Pound discounted after dire UK retail sales data and deterioration in consumer sentiment.
  • Buck betwixt and between as USTs rebound, but risk aversion gathers momentum.
  • Kiwi and Aussie lag due to unfavorable market conditions and their high beta characteristics but Yuan continues to rally as PBoC adds SLFs to the list of official rates being cut to support the Chinese economy Click here for a detailed summary.

Fixed Income

  • USTs extend rebound from post-20 year auction highs on amidst more pronounced risk-off positioning.
  • Bunds play catch up with Treasuries as demand for safe-havens picks up
  • Gilts also correct higher and pay some heed to downbeat UK fundamental

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent March contacts remain pressured by the broader risk tone, with focus on geopolitics
  • Morgan Stanley has increased its Q3 Brent price forecast to USD 100/bbl vs prev. viev; of around USD 90/bbl.
  • Spot gold looks heavy as traders booked some profits from yesterdays rally, while the yellow metal found support around the USD 1 830/oz.
  • LME copper re-tested USD 10k/t to the upside but failed to mount the level

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Don’t tell anyone but I’m going to betray my first love this weekend. It’s with someone 5 years younger but much less attractive on the eye and with far, far, far less money. I’ll also be introducing them to my kids but will be meeting up in a place that it is far less likely I’ll be seen. Yes as Liverpool fight to keep alive in the Premier League title race I'll be taking the twins to their first football match at non-league Woking Town who are around 105 places lower in the English football structure. Anfield was just too long a journey to be stuck with them for that length of time! The twins play for Woking Cubs although at this stage persuading them to not pick up the ball and run off with it mid-practise is an achievement.

The bears took control of the ball last night as markets followed the recent script whereby equities showed some stability only to take a turn late in the New York session. The S&P 500 was as much as +1% higher intraday, before selling off in the US afternoon, finishing the session down a steep -1.10% and is now -6.48% lower year-to-date. Consumer discretionary (-1.94%) and technology (-1.33%) were again among the biggest decliners, as big tech stocks underperformed. The NASDAQ fell -1.30%, and is down -9.53% YTD, -11.85% from all-time highs and closed below its 200 day average for the first time since the March 2020 Covid-induced volatility.

The S&P declines were broad-based though with 84% of the constituents lower after as much as 90% of the index was in the green intraday. The S&P 500 is on track for a 3rd consecutive weekly decline for the first time since September 2020. The story only got worse for tech stocks after the close, as Netflix posted poor earnings, missing subscriber estimates. The stock declined more than -20% in after hours trading.

Europe saw a stronger performance, but this was before the weak US close with the STOXX 600 ending the day up +0.51%.

Having experienced the highest levels in yields for many months earlier this week, sovereign bonds also rallied yesterday, with the 10yr Treasury yield down -6.1bps to 1.80%. True to form, most of the declines took place later in the New York session. About half of the declines came from real yields, down -3.4bps. These moves also occurred alongside a further flattening in the yield curve, with the 2s10s slope down -2.8bps to 77.5bps, which is its lowest closing level of the year so far, and not far off the recent low of 73.6bps we saw in late December. As a reminder, whether or not you’re in agreement as to its explanatory power, every US recession in recent times has been preceded by an inversion of the 2s10s curve, and our analysis shows that in the Fed hiking cycles since 1955 you generally see a flattening in the curve of around 80bps in the first year (see our rate hike primer here for more on this). So if the Fed hikes in March and things play out in line with that historic playbook, then that would imply a curve inversion in H1 next year. For the record 10yr yields are currently -3bps in the Asian session and the curve another couple of basis points flatter.

Central bankers will be hopeful they can avoid yield curve inversion, and ECB President Lagarde emphasised yesterday that the ECB had “every reason to not react as quickly and as abruptly as we could imagine the Fed might”. Nevertheless, the minutes from the ECB’s Governing Council meeting in December were released yesterday, which said “it was cautioned that a “higher for longer” inflation scenario could not be ruled out.” The minutes noted that the 2023 and 2024 inflation forecasts were “already relatively close to 2% and, considering the upside risk to the projection, could easily turn out above 2%.” It came as the final reading of December’s Euro Area inflation matched the initial estimate of +5.0%, the highest since the single currency’s formation, whilst sovereign bond yields in Europe followed the US lower, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-3.7bps) all declining.

Overnight in Asia, all major stock indexes are sharply lower. The Nikkei (-1.49%) is weak, giving up the gains in the previous session as Japan’s headline inflation (+0.8% y/y) in December failed to surpass market expectations of a +0.9% reading and may quell some of the recent policy normalisation stories. The core-CPI remained unchanged at +0.5% y/y in December below the market forecast of +0.6% rise. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-1.48%), Shanghai Composite (-0.82%), CSI (-0.85%) and the Hang Seng (-0.75%) are also down. Looking ahead, stock futures in the DM world continue to paint a weaker picture with S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq (-1%) and DAX (-1.25%) contracts trading lower again.

After remaining buoyant most of the session yesterday, Oil was also a victim of the late sell-off. Brent crude fell by -1.13% to $87.44/bbl, while WTI was only a smidge lower, declining -0.07% to $86.90/bbl. However the Asian session hasn't been kind with WTI trading in the low $84s as we type. Other commodities kept the trend going before the late sell-off. Agricultural prices saw fresh gains, with Bloomberg’s agriculture spot index (+0.68%) advancing to a post-2012 high, and both industrial and precious metals generally moved higher on the day as well.

In terms of yesterday’s data, Germany’s PPI inflation accelerated to +24.2% year-on-year in December (vs. +19.3% expected), marking the fastest increase since that statistic was introduced in 1949. Over in the US meanwhile, the weekly initial jobless claims rose to a 3-month high of 286k in the week through January 15. That was some way above the 225k reading expected and potentially reflects the growing impact of the Omicron variant on the labour market. Furthermore, the 4-week rolling average of claims rose to 231k as a result, marking its 3rd consecutive move higher. When it comes to other US data, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for January was more promising at 23.2 (vs. 19.0 expected), but the existing home sales for December fell for the first time in 4 months to an annualised rate of 6.18m (vs. 6.42m expected). There were some indications that this was a lack of supply rather than demand issue.

For what it's worth, after the US close Treasury Chief Janet Yellen lent her support to the Biden administration by expressing confidence in its ability along with the Fed to bring back inflation closer to 2% by the end of 2022.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for December, the Euro Area’s advance consumer confidence reading for January, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for December. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Mann.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/21/2022 - 08:03

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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Government

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A…

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CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) paper released Thursday found that thousands of young children have been taken to the emergency room over the past several years after taking the very common sleep-aid supplement melatonin.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images)

The agency said that melatonin, which can come in gummies that are meant for adults, was implicated in about 7 percent of all emergency room visits for young children and infants “for unsupervised medication ingestions,” adding that many incidents were linked to the ingestion of gummy formulations that were flavored. Those incidents occurred between the years 2019 and 2022.

Melatonin is a hormone produced by the human body to regulate its sleep cycle. Supplements, which are sold in a number of different formulas, are generally taken before falling asleep and are popular among people suffering from insomnia, jet lag, chronic pain, or other problems.

The supplement isn’t regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and does not require child-resistant packaging. However, a number of supplement companies include caps or lids that are difficult for children to open.

The CDC report said that a significant number of melatonin-ingestion cases among young children were due to the children opening bottles that had not been properly closed or were within their reach. Thursday’s report, the agency said, “highlights the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight,” including melatonin.

The approximately 11,000 emergency department visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestions by infants and young children during 2019–2022 highlight the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight.

The CDC notes that melatonin use among Americans has increased five-fold over the past 25 years or so. That has coincided with a 530 percent increase in poison center calls for melatonin exposures to children between 2012 and 2021, it said, as well as a 420 percent increase in emergency visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestion by young children or infants between 2009 and 2020.

Some health officials advise that children under the age of 3 should avoid taking melatonin unless a doctor says otherwise. Side effects include drowsiness, headaches, agitation, dizziness, and bed wetting.

Other symptoms of too much melatonin include nausea, diarrhea, joint pain, anxiety, and irritability. The supplement can also impact blood pressure.

However, there is no established threshold for a melatonin overdose, officials have said. Most adult melatonin supplements contain a maximum of 10 milligrams of melatonin per serving, and some contain less.

Many people can tolerate even relatively large doses of melatonin without significant harm, officials say. But there is no antidote for an overdose. In cases of a child accidentally ingesting melatonin, doctors often ask a reliable adult to monitor them at home.

Dr. Cora Collette Breuner, with the Seattle Children’s Hospital at the University of Washington, told CNN that parents should speak with a doctor before giving their children the supplement.

“I also tell families, this is not something your child should take forever. Nobody knows what the long-term effects of taking this is on your child’s growth and development,” she told the outlet. “Taking away blue-light-emitting smartphones, tablets, laptops, and television at least two hours before bed will keep melatonin production humming along, as will reading or listening to bedtime stories in a softly lit room, taking a warm bath, or doing light stretches.”

In 2022, researchers found that in 2021, U.S. poison control centers received more than 52,000 calls about children consuming worrisome amounts of the dietary supplement. That’s a six-fold increase from about a decade earlier. Most such calls are about young children who accidentally got into bottles of melatonin, some of which come in the form of gummies for kids, the report said.

Dr. Karima Lelak, an emergency physician at Children’s Hospital of Michigan and the lead author of the study published in 2022 by the CDC, found that in about 83 percent of those calls, the children did not show any symptoms.

However, other children had vomiting, altered breathing, or other symptoms. Over the 10 years studied, more than 4,000 children were hospitalized, five were put on machines to help them breathe, and two children under the age of two died. Most of the hospitalized children were teenagers, and many of those ingestions were thought to be suicide attempts.

Those researchers also suggested that COVID-19 lockdowns and virtual learning forced more children to be at home all day, meaning there were more opportunities for kids to access melatonin. Also, those restrictions may have caused sleep-disrupting stress and anxiety, leading more families to consider melatonin, they suggested.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 21:40

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International

Red Candle In The Wind

Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by…

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Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by printing at 275,000 against a consensus call of 200,000. We say superficially, because the downward revisions to prior months totalled 167,000 for December and January, taking the total change in employed persons well below the implied forecast, and helping the unemployment rate to pop two-ticks to 3.9%. The U6 underemployment rate also rose from 7.2% to 7.3%, while average hourly earnings growth fell to 0.2% m-o-m and average weekly hours worked languished at 34.3, equalling pre-pandemic lows.

Undeterred by the devil in the detail, the algos sprang into action once exchanges opened. Market darling NVIDIA hit a new intraday high of $974 before (presumably) the humans took over and sold the stock down more than 10% to close at $875.28. If our suspicions are correct that it was the AIs buying before the humans started selling (no doubt triggering trailing stops on the way down), the irony is not lost on us.

The 1-day chart for NVIDIA now makes for interesting viewing, because the red candle posted on Friday presents quite a strong bearish engulfing signal. Volume traded on the day was almost double the 15-day simple moving average, and similar price action is observable on the 1-day charts for both Intel and AMD. Regular readers will be aware that we have expressed incredulity in the past about the durability the AI thematic melt-up, so it will be interesting to see whether Friday’s sell off is just a profit-taking blip, or a genuine trend reversal.

AI equities aside, this week ought to be important for markets because the BTFP program expires today. That means that the Fed will no longer be loaning cash to the banking system in exchange for collateral pledged at-par. The KBW Regional Banking index has so far taken this in its stride and is trading 30% above the lows established during the mini banking crisis of this time last year, but the Fed’s liquidity facility was effectively an exercise in can-kicking that makes regional banks a sector of the market worth paying attention to in the weeks ahead. Even here in Sydney, regulators are warning of external risks posed to the banking sector from scheduled refinancing of commercial real estate loans following sharp falls in valuations.

Markets are sending signals in other sectors, too. Gold closed at a new record-high of $2178/oz on Friday after trading above $2200/oz briefly. Gold has been going ballistic since the Friday before last, posting gains even on days where 2-year Treasury yields have risen. Gold bugs are buying as real yields fall from the October highs and inflation breakevens creep higher. This is particularly interesting as gold ETFs have been recording net outflows; suggesting that price gains aren’t being driven by a retail pile-in. Are gold buyers now betting on a stagflationary outcome where the Fed cuts without inflation being anchored at the 2% target? The price action around the US CPI release tomorrow ought to be illuminating.

Leaving the day-to-day movements to one side, we are also seeing further signs of structural change at the macro level. The UK budget last week included a provision for the creation of a British ISA. That is, an Individual Savings Account that provides tax breaks to savers who invest their money in the stock of British companies. This follows moves last year to encourage pension funds to head up the risk curve by allocating 5% of their capital to unlisted investments.

As a Hail Mary option for a government cruising toward an electoral drubbing it’s a curious choice, but it’s worth highlighting as cash-strapped governments increasingly see private savings pools as a funding solution for their spending priorities.

Of course, the UK is not alone in making creeping moves towards financial repression. In contrast to announcements today of increased trade liberalisation, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has in the recent past flagged his interest in tapping private pension savings to fund state spending priorities, including defence, public housing and renewable energy projects. Both the UK and Australia appear intent on finding ways to open up the lungs of their economies, but government wants more say in directing private capital flows for state goals.

So, how far is the blurring of the lines between free markets and state planning likely to go? Given the immense and varied budgetary (and security) pressures that governments are facing, could we see a re-up of WWII-era Victory bonds, where private investors are encouraged to do their patriotic duty by directly financing government at negative real rates?

That would really light a fire under the gold market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 19:00

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