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Manhattan Apartments With Doorman Soar To New Record High

Manhattan Apartments With Doorman Soar To New Record High

What’s stunning is that median apartment rents in Manhattan are back to pre-pandemic highs. Rents for apartments with door attendants soared to a new record high while ones without…

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Manhattan Apartments With Doorman Soar To New Record High

What's stunning is that median apartment rents in Manhattan are back to pre-pandemic highs. Rents for apartments with door attendants soared to a new record high while ones without door attendants are still below 2019 levels. Some argue New York City's most expensive borough is back, but the "back-to-work" barometer tells a different story. 

Appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate released a new report Thursday that highlighted median rent in the borough increased 16% to $3,475 in December compared to a year ago. The rents are back to levels last seen right before the pandemic crash. 

The overall increase in rents was primarily due to a sizeable increase for apartment buildings with a doorman, which climbed 23% to a staggering $4,298 (a new record high). In comparison, buildings without doorkeepers rose 7.8% to $2,695 (still below 2019 levels). 

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said demand for luxury buildings is a prime example of polarization in the market, with prices for apartment buildings without a doorman still lagging pre-pandemic levels. 

Rental inventory is tight for luxury buildings as landlords slashed generous concessions. Inventory has plunged 81% from a year ago in December, and the vacancy rate is 1.7%. There was also a 39% plunge in new leases for the month. 

Miller said, "the market is coming off of unsustainable activity levels and trending toward more sustainable patterns in the coming months. Omicron is in the mix for sure, just slowing down activity too." 

Meanwhile, Kastle Systems, whose electronic access systems secure thousands of office buildings across NYC, showed only 17% of workers were back at their desks in early January, compared with 37% on Dec. 2. Omicron has certainly impacted back-to-work as employers have recently sent workers home. 

Still, the good news is that Morgan Stanley has called the top on Omicron, and it could peak in the next month. So maybe soaring rental demand is workers returning to the city with the hopes the virus pandemic will end this year. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/15/2022 - 15:00

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Economics

Prioritizing home equity solutions in a rising rate environment

HousingWire recently spoke with Barry Coffin, managing director of home equity title/close at ServiceLink, about the ways lenders can capitalize on these…

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The 2022 housing market has been underscored by interest rate spikes and refi decline and lenders are working hard to adjust to new borrower trends. HousingWire recently spoke with Barry Coffin, managing director of home equity title/close at ServiceLink, about the ways lenders can capitalize on these trends by revving up their home equity solutions.

HousingWire: Between inflation and additional interest rate hikes coming down the line from the Fed, why is now a smart time for lenders to start prioritizing home equity products? 

Barry Coffin: It’s a good time to prioritize home equity transactions for a couple of reasons. First, with the decline in refinance transactions caused by rising rates, origination volume is declining at a rapid rate. Secondly, home prices continue to surge, giving homeowners more tappable equity than they have had in several years. The combination of both allows lenders to seamlessly shift resources from refinance operations into home equity operations. 

In addition, the combination of the loss of refinance cash out transactions and also government stimulus payments due to the pandemic will prompt homeowners to use the equity in their home when needing to access cash.

We are seeing many lenders take advantage of this opportunity by increasing their share of the fast-growing home equity market.

HW: As lenders adapt their strategies to better align with our rising rate environment, prioritizing home equity options could prove pivotal, especially for older Americans. What are some of the most valuable home equity solutions lenders can add to their arsenal of offerings?

BC: With the increase in home equity volume, lenders should be looking to add the same type of digital solutions they focused on adding to their refinance business, to their home equity offerings. Over the last few years, lenders have focused on digitizing their processes with the goal of reducing the cycle time from application to closing. These digital solutions, especially those offered by ServiceLink, work just as well in the home equity title/close process. They include automated title, digital signing solutions and eClosing offerings.

Technology equals efficiency. A lot of lenders haven’t spent much money on technology for home equity processes. They’re still using legacy in-house technology for their loan origination system and their processes simply aren’t efficient. When you think of efficiency as a way of managing the cost of the product, investing in technology makes sense. Home equity lenders are paying the fees, unlike a first mortgage transaction where fees are paid as part of closing costs, home equity lenders generally will pay the costs of the transaction for their borrowers.

ServiceLink provides the technology to keep the process efficient and keep in-house costs down while helping lenders reduce the time it takes to close a loan. During recent years, even though home equity volume was less when compared to refinance, our home equity groups still participated in the development of the technology and refinement of the services and the products that we offer.

HW: As life expectancies continue to rise and more older homeowners face the possibility of outliving their retirement savings, the demand for home equity services is likely to increase. What should lenders be doing now to upgrade their home equity options and educate their customers about the risks and benefits of these products?

BC: As previously mentioned, from a home equity perspective, it is important to focus on efficiencies to reduce the cycle time to close a loan. There are lenders out there that are still taking 35, 40, 45 days or longer to close a home equity loan.

A lot of our lender clients are working with us to reduce the cycle time by taking advantage of our products and seeing major improvements in compressing the closing cycle, reducing it by several days. We have lenders talking to us continually about their goal of closing a home equity loan in as few as three to five days with our technology being the key to bringing speed and accuracy to the process.

HW: In a housing market that is constantly shifting and evolving, how can ServiceLink help lenders better serve the changing needs of their home equity clients? 

BC: A lot of what we’ve built in our Home Equity Operations is focused on customer service and on technology. From a customer service perspective, we focus on ensuring clients are getting the high end service they expect from a dedicated team of experienced, trained operators. From a technology perspective, our EXOS technology is specifically based on the changing needs of lenders and the demands of borrowers. 

Our EXOS Title offering allows us to provide an automated title product and we’ve streamlined many other steps along the way. From the borrower side, either lenders or consumers can schedule their closing appointment for the exact date and time of their choice using EXOS Close based on real-time signing agent availability. That way, they can control their own closing timeline. We give them the technology to be able to schedule that appointment, and we send a mobile notary to their home. They get the loans signed much quicker by using our technology and our data shows that consumers often select the earliest date and time available to them.

We also offer a variety of eClosing solutions, for wherever lenders are on their digital journey. We’ve seen increased interest from lenders and borrowers alike in virtual closing for home equity loans. ServiceLink offers to help lenders with the transition to eClosing with our array of products, with hybrid products for lenders that are not ready to commit to a full eClosing. We have multiple options for both insured and uninsured title, and we can offer eClosings that still facilitate in-branch or face-to-face closings.

The post Prioritizing home equity solutions in a rising rate environment appeared first on HousingWire.

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Real Estate

These Are The Places You Can (Still) Get A Cheap Beach Property

Many affordable beach towns are just a short drive away from the expensive cities and resorts.

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Many affordable beach towns are just a short drive away from the expensive cities and resorts.

Almost everyone wants a seaside vacation house but, when you start looking at prices, the dream starts to feel a whole lot less achievable. 

In places like Malibu or Nantucket, the average price of a "little place by the beach" now easily runs upward of several millions.

The most popular destinations do have prices that have completely pushed out even people with above-average incomes.

But the country has numerous quaint seaside towns with average properties below $400,000 and lots of options on the market. 

For its annual list of the country's affordable beach towns, Realtor.com looked at median prices of cities that had no fewer than 30 listings in April.

In many cases, they are just a short drive away from expensive resorts that many will not look beyond when looking for a place.

"Most people, when they think of beach towns, they focus on a few dozen destinations," George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com, said in a statement. 

"However, there are a lot of hidden gems, which offer all the benefits of seaside living at a much lower price."

Atlantic City, New Jersey:

While hardly under-the-radar, Atlantic City's kitsch reputation makes it a relatively affordable place to satisfy that beachside living dream. 

The median listing price is $161,754 and there is no shortage of homes on the market.

Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Due to its status as East Coast's gambling and entertainment mecca, Atlantic City is a safe bet for would-be Airbnb  (ABNB) - Get Airbnb, Inc. Class A Report investors who need a steady stream of visitors.

The city is currently in the middle of a visitor boon both amid and after Covid-19 travel restrictions; home prices have jumped 18.8% since April 2021.

"The high-rises right by the beach are doing good," local broker Nancy Vasta told Reatlor.com "Now, you'll see one condo left in each high-rise, where before you could go and see five or six."

Deerfield Beach, Florida:

Florida is the quintessential beach state.

For those who are priced out of the most expensive destinations, there are endless other options for those who want to break into the vacation property business.

Just a few miles outside of the more affluent Boca Raton and Palm Beach, Deerfield Beach is attractive not only for its proximity to the water but also for its real estate prices. 

The median listing price is $230,071 and, while that may not get you a seafront estate, some Northeasterner will surely want to rent whatever you buy for a winter getaway.

"Older buyers can find some of the most affordable waterfront options, including this two-bedroom condo on the Intracoastal Waterway asking just $299,222 for 55-plus buyers," reads the report. 

"Younger buyers can also find their own bit of beach without breaking the bank, including this $400,000 one-bedroom condo right on the ocean."

New London, Connecticut:

Connecticut is another state that, in the eyes of many, has given up on affordability entirely. 

But while that may be the case in New Canaan or Greenwich, the median listing price in New London is only $242,392.

There are even a few properties below $150,000 on the market.

Deerfield Beach, Florida.

Why is it so cheap? 

It often has to do with demand and New London has not yet received the PR push of a popular beach destination. The flip side is that this could mean growth potential for investors.

"Water babies can find homes with a view starting in the mid-$100,000 range," reads Realtor.com. 

"For example, this two-bedroom condo is asking $149,900 while this two-bedroom condo with a seasonal dock space available (for a fee) is listed at $255,000."

Mastic Beach, New York

You're probably surprised to see a town in The Hamptons on this list as in places like Water Mill the average home price is nearly $4 million. 

A 40-minute drive from Southampton, Mastic Beach is yet to shake its working class roots and has a median list price of $334,907. 

That may not get you a place right by the water but it will get you  — or, if you're doing this as an investment, your Airbnb guests — a place to crash in the Hamptons in the summer.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

"In the notoriously exclusive Hamptons on Long Island, Mastic Beach doesn’t get the same sort of rich and famous resort crowd as its world-famous neighbor," reads the report. 

"But this working-class beach town has a lot to offer ocean lovers who can’t afford a multimillion-dollar 'summer cottage.'"

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina:

Myrtle Beach makes lists of the best beach towns again and again in large part because, for a relatively affordable entry price, one gets access to not just a picturesque beach but an endless array of dining and entertainment options.

The median listing price is $347,875 and, as the endless array of Airbnb and VRBO listings show, investors will not struggle to find people who'll want to rent a property during the popular seasons.

Myrtle Beach real estate prices rose by 21% since April 2021.

"There are tons of waterfront homes to choose from, whether buyers are making a full-time move or seeking a vacation rental," reads the report. 

"Such as this two-bedroom condo on the market for $289,900 with killer views of the ocean or this historic five-bedroom beach house with views of the ocean and a pier from the front porch for $595,000." 

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Economics

Key Events This Week: Global PMIs, US Durables and PCE

Key Events This Week: Global PMIs, US Durables and PCE

It is a relatively quiet week, and the biggest highlight for investors following the…

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Key Events This Week: Global PMIs, US Durables and PCE

It is a relatively quiet week, and the biggest highlight for investors following the growth concerns that have roiled markets of late will be the global preliminary PMIs for May tomorrow. Central banks will also remain in focus as we will get the latest FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday) and the US April PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation proxy, on Friday. An array of global industrial activity data will be another theme to watch.

Consumer sentiment will be in focus too, with a number of confidence measures from Europe and personal income and spending data from the US (Friday). Corporates reporting results will include spending bellwethers Macy's and Costco. After last week’s retail earnings bloodbath (e.g. Walmart and Target) these will get added attention.

On the Fed, the minutes may be a bit stale now but it’ll still be interesting to see the insight around the biases of 50bps vs 25/75bps hikes after the next couple of meetings. Thoughts on QT will also be devoured.

Staying with the US, for the personal income and spending numbers on Friday, our US economists expect the two indicators to slow to +0.2% and +0.6% in April, respectively. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, will be another important metric released the same day and DB’s economics team expects the April core reading to stay at +0.3%. Other US data will include April new home sales tomorrow and April durable goods orders on Wednesday.

A number of manufacturing and business activity indicators are in store, too. Regional Fed indicators throughout the week will include an April gauge of national activity from the Chicago Fed (today) and May manufacturing indices from the Richmond Fed (tomorrow) and the Kansas City Fed (Thursday). In Europe, the May IFO business climate indicator for Germany will be out today, followed by a manufacturing confidence gauge for France (tomorrow) and Italy (Thursday). China's industrial profits are due on Friday.

This week will also feature a number of important summits. Among them will be the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos that has now started and will run until next Thursday. It'll be the first in-person meeting since the pandemic began and geopolitics will likely be in focus. Meanwhile, President Biden will travel to Asia for the first time as US president and attend a Quad summit in Tokyo tomorrow. Details on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are expected. Finally, NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s 2022 Spring Session will be held in Vilnius from next Friday to May 30th.

In corporate earnings, investors will be closely watching Macy's, Costco and Dollar General after this week's slump in Walmart and Target. Amid the carnage in tech, several companies that were propelled by the pandemic will be in focus too, with reporters including NVIDIA, Snowflake (Wednesday) and Zoom (today). Other notable corporates releasing earnings will be Lenovo, Alibaba, Baidu (Thursday) and XPeng (Monday).

Source: Earnings Whispers

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 23

  • Data: US April Chicago Fed national activity index, Germany May IFO business climate
  • Central banks: Fed's Bostic speaks, ECB's Holzmann, Nagel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
  • Earnings: XPeng, Zoom

Tuesday May 24

  • Data: May PMIs for the US, Japan, UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, April new home sales, Japan April nationwide, Tokyo department sales, UK April public finances, France May manufacturing confidence
  • Central banks: Fed's George speaks, ECB's Villeroy speaks
  • Earnings: Best Buy, Intuit
  • Other: Quad summit in Tokyo

Wednesday May 25

  • Data: US April durable, capital goods orders, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, Q1 private consumption, government spending, capital investment, France May consumer confidence
  • Central banks: Fed FOMC meeting minutes, ECB's Lagarde, Rehn, Panetta and Holzmann speak, BoJ's Kuroda speaks, ECB's Finance Stability Review
  • Earnings: NVIDIA, Snowflake

Thursday May 26

  • Data: US May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, April pending home sales, initial jobless claims, Japan April services PPI, Italy May consumer, manufacturing, economic confidence, March industrial sales, Canada May CFIB business barometer, March payroll employment change, retail sales
  • Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada, Dollar General, Lenovo, Alibaba, Baidu, Macy's, Dollar Tree, Costco, Marvell, Autodesk

Friday May 27

  • Data: US April advance goods trade balance, April wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE deflator, China April industrial profits, Japan May Tokyo CPI, Eurozone April M3
  • Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks
  • Earnings: Pinduoduo
  • Other: NATO Parliamentary Assembly begins, until May 30th

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Wednesday, the Q1 GDP release on Thursday, and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. The minutes from the May FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including remarks by Chair Powell on Tuesday and a speech by Vice Chair Brainard on Wednesday.

Monday, May 23

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
  • 12:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at an event in Atlanta. Audience and media Q&A are expected. On May 10th, President Bostic argued that a 50bp pace of hiking is “the pace we need to stay at—getting 50bp increases, maybe for the next two or perhaps three meetings, and let’s just keep this moving to make sure that we’re doing all we can to get inflation under control,” while also stressing that he does not think “we need to be moving even more aggressively” than a 50bp pace.
  • 07:30 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech at an agricultural symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed. Audience Q&A is expected. On May 19th, President George noted that she was “very comfortable right now with 50 basis points,” and argued that “what’s more important [than estimates of the neutral rate] is at what point will we see inflation level out and begin to decelerate. That, I think, will tell us something about where we need to go with monetary policy.”

Tuesday, May 24

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 57.8, last 59.2); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 55.3, last 55.6)
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus 10, last 16)
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.7%, last -8.6%): We estimate that new home sales declined 2.0% in April, following an 8.6% decline in March.
  • 12:20 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver welcoming remarks to the National Center for American Indian Enterprise Development 2022 Reservation Economic Summit. Text is expected. On May 17th, Chair Powell noted that “during the course of the [May FOMC] meeting it became clear that there was broad support in the committee for having on the table the idea of doing additional [50bp] rate increases … at each of the next two meetings.” Chair Powell noted that the Fed is looking to “have financial conditions tighten to the point where growth will moderate and still be positive, but moderate to the point where supply and demand can get back into alignment and where we can get inflation back down to 2%,” and stressed that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we're going to keep pushing until we see that.” Chair Powell argued that “there are a number of plausible paths to having a softish landing,” although he warned that “there could be some pain” as the Fed tightens monetary policy.

Wednesday, May 25

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, April preliminary (GS -0.4%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods orders, April preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, April preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 0.4% in the preliminary April report, following a 1.1% increase in March. Our forecast reflects lower commercial aircraft orders and a possible slowdown in new orders of core capex equipment.
  • 12:15 PM Fed Vice Chair Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will deliver remarks at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advance International Studies 2022 commencement ceremony in Washington. Text is expected. On April 12th, Vice Chair Brainard said that she expects “the combined effect of moving the policy rate to a more neutral level and commencing balance sheet reduction to have the effect of bringing inflation down, seeing some moderation in demand while the supply side catches up.” Vice Chair Brainard also noted that “core goods, which has been the source of an outsized amount of core inflationary pressure, moderated more than I had anticipated. It’s very welcome to see the moderation in this category. And I will be looking to see whether we continue to see moderation in the months ahead.”
  • 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, May 3-4 meeting: The FOMC increased the federal funds rate by 50bp at its May meeting. Chair Powell said that further 50bp increases in the funds rate should be on the table at the next couple of meetings, but that a “75bp increase is not something the committee is actively considering.” We expect the FOMC to deliver two additional 50bp hikes in June and July, and to hike by 25bp at its remaining meetings this year.
  • The FOMC also announced the start of balance sheet runoff at the May meeting, with peak caps of $60bn for Treasury securities and $35bn for mortgage-backed securities. We expect that UST runoff will always hit its cap until the balance sheet reaches its terminal size, but MBS runoff will never hit its cap, especially following the very sharp recent rise in mortgage rates.

Thursday, May 26

  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 second (GS -1.7%, consensus -1.3%, last -1.4%); Personal consumption, Q1 second (GS +2.0%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.7%): We estimate a three-tenths downward revision to Q1 GDP growth to -1.7% (qoq ar) following Friday’s weaker-than-expected Quarterly Services Survey (QSS). Our forecast assumes downward revisions to consumption related to Omicron, partially offset by upward revisions to intellectual property investment and inventories.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 21 (GS 218k, consensus 210k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 14 (consensus 1,310k, last 1,317k): We estimate initial jobless claims were unchanged at 218k in the week ended May 21.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS -2.3%, consensus -2.0%, last -1.2%): We estimate that pending home sales declined 2.3% in April, following a 1.2% decline in March.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus 18, last 25)

Friday, May 27

  • 08:30 AM Personal income, April (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Personal spending, April (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.1%); PCE price index, April (GS +0.14%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.87%); PCE price index (yoy), April (GS +6.13%, consensus +6.2%, last +6.59%); Core PCE price index, April (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.29%); Core PCE price index (yoy), April (GS +4.75%, consensus +4.9%, last +5.18%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import prices reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.20% month-over-month in April, corresponding to a 4.75% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.14% in April, corresponding to a +6.13% increase from a year earlier. We expect that personal income increased by 0.6% and personal spending increased by 1.1% in April.
  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, April (GS -$114.0, consensus -$114.7bn, last -$127.1bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit decreased by $13.1 to $114.0 in April compared to the final March report, reflecting a decrease in imports.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, April preliminary (consensus +1.9%, last +2.3%): Retail inventories, April (consensus +2.0%, last +2.0%)
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April final (GS 58.1, consensus 59.1, last 59.1): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased by 1.0pt to 58.1 in the final May reading.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 05/23/2022 - 10:25

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