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LCID Stock: Is Lucid Motors a Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Keep reading to learn what role Lucid Group plans to play in the EV market and what to expect from LCID stock.
The post LCID Stock: Is Lucid Motors a Buy…



After exploding on the scene last year, Lucid Group (Nasdaq: LCID) is trending again before earnings on February 28. With LCID stock down over 27% so far this year, is now the time to buy?

The luxury EV maker is often compared to rival Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) in the approach it’s taking. That said, Lucid’s first EV, “Lucid Air,” is being named MotorTrend’s 2022 Car of the Year. Also known as the “Golden Caliper’s,” the award is considered one of the most highly regarded honors in the industry.

With this in mind, EV stocks are taking a backseat after leading the market post-pandemic. The KraneShares EV ETF (NYSE: KARS) is down 13% as investors take profits in an overheated market.

At the same time, experts predict the EV market will be one of the fastest-growing markets in the next several years. Given that EV sales look to reach close to 30% of new car sales by 2030 from 3.4% in 2021, there’s a ton of room for growth.

Keep reading to learn what role Lucid plans to play in the EV market and what to expect from LCID stock.

LCID Stock: What to Expect From Lucid’s Q4 Earnings

Lucid Motors is at an exciting point in its business cycle. The company is transitioning from development to production as the Lucid Air Dream Edition begins hitting the streets. The deliveries began in October as the team personally welcomed customers.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts are expecting the following in Q4:

  • EPS: (-0.35)
  • Revenue: $36.74 million

Yet as the company ramps production, it will still be losing money. That said, it could be another year before we see a gross profit.

That being said, Lucid expects to sell 20,000 EVs in 2022. But the company also notes the target will depend on several ongoing issues like supply chain issues and production ability.

Speaking of supply chain issues, on Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk says multiple industry challenges exist. First, the most limiting factor is the chip shortage, making it hard to get the devices needed to power EVs.

Secondly, port challenges make it more expensive to get supplies on time. Tesla noted a “significant increase in expedited costs,” especially for unique parts.

On top of this, Lucid plans on launching another three models this year, all of which will require special parts. On the other hand, Tesla is sticking with its current models to focus on total vehicle output.

It will be interesting to see which strategy is more successful at the end of the year. Will Tesla hold on to its dominant lead in the EV market, or will Lucid creep into its market share?

Battle of The U.S. EV Makers

In case you missed the super bowl between the Rams and Bengals, (spoiler) the Rams won. But the biggest takeaway wasn’t from the game. It was from the commercials. It was evident of the changing times with EVs and crypto dominating ad time in the most popular sporting event in the U.S.

For a 30 second ad, the cost is around $7.5 million as over 100 million viewers tuned in. As the industry continues building momentum, this is likely the new normal.

Another key point to consider is Biden’s “Rebuilding our Manufacturing to Make More in America” speech. In the speech, Biden addresses his desires for America to become the global leader in EVs. In particular, he pointed out rivals Tesla, Rivian (Nasdaq: RIVN), GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F).

Even though Lucid didn’t get a shout-out, the company plans on playing a major role in the growing EV market. That said, the Lucid will face stiff competition as it looks to grab a piece of the luxury EV market.

Tesla is leading U.S. luxury vehicles with over 936,000 cars delivered in 2021. Lucid will have a long way to go in catching up, but it’s not impossible.

We will see if the company can overcome Tesla’s issues in what became known as “production hell.”

Lucid’s Advantage

Although Lucid is just getting its feet on the ground, it does have an advantage. The auto industry is famously known for slim margins and its high barrier to entry.

On the other hand, Lucid is making a higher-end vehicle in its award-winning Air. With this in mind, premium vehicles generally offer more revenue and higher margins. Not only that, but like Tesla, the EV maker is coming in with a strong reputation.

The company claims its Dream Edition R has a 520-mile range. If this is the case, it will beat out the Tesla Model S, known for its long-range ability (405 miles).

The extra 115 miles could be a huge draw for some. But, it’s also $74,000 more than the Tesla Model S, which you can order at any time. So, it really will come down to if buyers want the extra bells and whistles that come with the Air.

So far, Lucid is following in Tesla’s footsteps in many ways. Yet the company stands apart as well.

First of all, Lucid is doing well in delivering on its promises. Transparency can go a long way in attracting customers as well as investors.

LCID Stock Forecast: Will Lucid Bounce Back?

The upcoming quarter and year will be critical for Lucid Motors. So far, LCID stock is down over 30% this year, with EV stocks falling.

With this in mind, LCID stock is sitting below its 200-day SMA, a sign of further weakness. Nonetheless, the EV maker needs a solid quarter to give it any strength. Even though Lucid will not be turning a profit, the guidance going forward will be most important.

If Lucid continues delivering on its promises and stays on track this year, expect LCID to regain some momentum. On the other hand, investors are fleeing high-valued growth stocks with no profits to manage risk.

That said, if Lucid fails to deliver, we could see more pressure on LCID stock this year. Lucid shares are still up from their 52-week low of around $16. But they seem to have found support around $25-$28.

Until earnings on February 28, don’t expect too much. Then after earnings, we should see if LCID stock has any chance of bouncing back this year.

The post LCID Stock: Is Lucid Motors a Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings? appeared first on Investment U.

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Bitcoin price must break $31K to avoid 2023 ‘bearish fractal’

BTC price needs to recoup some more key levels before ditching longer-term bearish risk, the latest Bitcoin analysis says.



BTC price needs to recoup some more key levels before ditching longer-term bearish risk, the latest Bitcoin analysis says.

Bitcoin (BTC) held above $30,000 at the Oct. 23 Wall Street open as analysis said BTC price strength could cancel its “bearish fractal.”

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price preserves majority of early upside

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it hovered near $30,700, still up 2.5% on Oct. 23.

The largest cryptocurrency made snap gains after the Oct. 22 weekly close, stopping just shy of $31,000 in what became its highest levels since July. 

Now, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital is keen to see the $31,000 level break. 

“Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the Lower High resistance to confirm the breakout,” he commented alongside the weekly chart.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD could disregard the bearish chart fractal in play throughout 2023 next. This had involved the two year-to-date highs near $32,000 forming a doubletop formation, with downside due as a result.

Specifically, Bitcoin requires a “breach” of $31,000 in order to do so. 

More encouraging cues came from the True Market Deviation indicator from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

As noted by its lead analyst, Checkmate, on Oct. 23, the metric, also known as the Average Active Investor (AVIV) profit ratio, has crossed a key level.

Bitcoin’s True Mean Market price (TMM) — the level that BTC/USD spends exactly 50% above or below — is now below its spot price, at $29,780. 

“Have we now paid our bear market dues?” Checkmate queried, describing TMM as Bitcoin’s “most accurate cost basis model.”

Bitcoin True Market Deviation (AVIV) chart. Source: Checkmate/X

Institutions awaken in “Uptober"

Analyzing the potential drivers of the rally, meanwhile, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, flagged the potential approval of the United States’ first Bitcoin spot-price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Related: BTC price nears 2023 highs — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

While not yet awarded the green light, a U.S. spot ETF is being treated as an inevitability after legal battles resulted in regulators losing sway.

“The potential approval of a spot ETF for Bitcoin has spurred a significant increase in bullish inflows in the crypto market,” Van Straten wrote in an update published on Oct. 23.

He noted that Glassnode data shows inflows via over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks spiking since late September.

“In addition, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, with its holdings of approximately 25,000 Bitcoin, has observed consistent inflow throughout the past month. Even though these inflows might not be termed as ‘large,’ they denote a positive market sentiment,” he continued.

“This uptick in inflows across various platforms indicates an optimistic market response to the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF, bolstering the overall landscape of digital assets.”
Bitcoin transfers to OTC desk wallets. Source: CryptoSlate/Glassnode

The largest Bitcoin institutional investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), continues to see a lower discount to the Bitcoin spot price, having already seen its smallest negative margin since December 2021.

This stood at -13.12% as of Oct. 23, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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California bill aims to cap crypto ATM withdrawals at $1K per day to combat scams

A new legislative investigation found some crypto ATMs charging a premium as high as 33%, while a few ATMs had limits of up to $50,000.



A new legislative investigation found some crypto ATMs charging a premium as high as 33%, while a few ATMs had limits of up to $50,000. California legislators have proposed a new bill titled “Digital financial asset transaction kiosks,” calling for a cap on crypto ATM withdrawals of $1,000 per day in light of growing scams. Additionally, starting in 2025, the law would limit operators’ fees to $5 or 15% (whichever is higher). The bill, if approved, would come into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. The bill was introduced after legislative members visited a crypto ATM in Sacramento and found markups as high as 33% on some crypto assets compared with their prices on crypto exchanges. On average, a crypto ATM charges fees between 12% and 25%, according to a legislative analysis. Government officials also found ATMs with limits as high as $50,000, prompting them to take regulatory measures to curb such high premiums and withdrawal limits. There are more than 3,200 Bitcoin ATMs in California, according to Coin ATM Radar. Democratic State Senator Monique Limón, who co-authored the proposed legislation, said the “new bill is about ensuring that people who have been frauded in our communities don’t continue to watch our state step aside” when there are real issues happening. Another provision of the bill would require digital financial asset businesses to obtain a license from the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation by July 2025 Crypto ATMs are a popular way for people to exchange cash for their choice of cryptocurrency but have become a hub for scams and exploits because of the nature of transactions (i.e., hard cash). Unlike bank and wire transfers, each transaction leaves less of a trail. Related: CoinSmart president says crypto taxes are a ‘little bit more favorable’ outside US Some residents have recently been caught up in such scams, where the scammer persuades the victim to go to a nearby crypto ATM and deposit cash for the crypto of their choice. Some of those affected by ATM scams have lauded the bill and said the low transaction limit would give victims time to realize if they are being duped, reported the LA Times. On the other hand, crypto ATM businesses said the new bill would harm the small operators who must pay rent on their ATMs. The operators noted that the bill fails to address the core issue of the fraud and instead takes a punitive path focused on a specific technology. They warned such a move would shudder the industry and hurt consumers while doing nothing to stop bad actors. Magazine: Bitcoin is on a collision course with ‘Net Zero’ promises

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Fighting the Surveillance State Begins with the Individual

It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in…



It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in place, collecting data on the entire populace. This has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt by people like Edward Snowden, a National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower who exposed that the NSA was conducting mass surveillance on US citizens and the world as a whole. The NSA used applications like those from Prism Systems to piggyback on corporations and the data collection their users had agreed to in the terms of service. Google would scan all emails sent to a Gmail address to use for personalized advertising. The government then went to these companies and demanded the data, and this is what makes the surveillance state so interesting. Neo-Marxists like Shoshana Zuboff have dubbed this “surveillance capitalism.” In China, the mass surveillance is conducted at a loss. Setting up closed-circuit television cameras and hiring government workers to be a mandatory editorial staff for blogs and social media can get quite expensive. But if you parasitically leech off a profitable business practice it means that the surveillance state will turn a profit, which is a great asset and an even greater weakness for the system. You see, when that is what your surveillance state is predicated on you’ve effectively given your subjects an opt-out button. They stop using services that spy on them. There is software and online services that are called “open source,” which refers to software whose code is publicly available and can be viewed by anyone so that you can see exactly what that software does. The opposite of this, and what you’re likely already familiar with, is proprietary software. Open-source software generally markets itself as privacy respecting and doesn’t participate in data collection. Services like that can really undo the tricky situation we’ve found ourselves in. It’s a simple fact of life that when the government is given a power—whether that be to regulate, surveil, tax, or plunder—it is nigh impossible to wrestle it away from the state outside somehow disposing of the state entirely. This is why the issue of undoing mass surveillance is of the utmost importance. If the government has the power to spy on its populace, it will. There are people, like the creators of The Social Dilemma, who think that the solution to these privacy invasions isn’t less government but more government, arguing that data collection should be taxed to dissuade the practice or that regulation needs to be put into place to actively prevent abuses. This is silly to anyone who understands the effect regulations have and how the internet really works. You see, data collection is necessary. You can’t have email without some elements of data collection because it’s simply how the protocol functions. The issue is how that data is stored and used. A tax on data collection itself will simply become another cost of doing business. A large company like Google can afford to pay a tax. But a company like Proton Mail, a smaller, more privacy-respecting business, likely couldn’t. Proton Mail’s business model is based on paid subscriptions. If there were additional taxes imposed on them, it’s possible that they would not be able to afford the cost and would be forced out of the market. To reiterate, if one really cares about the destruction of the surveillance state, the first step is to personally make changes to how you interact with online services and to whom you choose to give your data.

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