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Landlords And Corporations Are Renovating Their Office Spaces For “Hybrid” Work

Landlords And Corporations Are Renovating Their Office Spaces For "Hybrid" Work

After years of employees working from home thanks to the…

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Landlords And Corporations Are Renovating Their Office Spaces For "Hybrid" Work

After years of employees working from home thanks to the pandemic, some companies and commercial landlords are finding it difficult - and even unnecessary - to bring workers and new tenants "back to the office" the way they were prior to Covid.

This has resulted in landlords modifying workspaces and some corporations renovating their already existing office space to become "hybrid" workspace, according to a new article by Bisnow. The publication reported this week that supply chain issues and rising rates are likely also helping fuel the move. 

Even architects are paying attention to the new changes. American Institute of Architects Chief Economist Kermit Baker said this week that firms are making more income from renovating existing workspaces than from building new ones. "Architecture firms are drowning in work," he said. 

CBRE Global Head of Occupier Thought Leadership Julie Whelan noted that there is an "onslaught" of renovations taking place, as landlords look to change their properties to appeal to future tenants and existing tenants modify their workspaces.

767 Third Avenue, for example, is about to be in the midst of a "wholesale demo", led by Sage Realty, and costing $53 million. This renovation will allow for "a new lobby space and a reworked amenities program for tenants, including a library, terrace garden, cafés and communal spaces," according to the report. The hope is to attract boutique companies and maximize space for amenities for tenants. 

CEO Jonathan Iger commented: “The mindset right now is that you have to be reinvesting in your property. It’s about how you define quality.”

Another major renovation is being led by Brookfield and WatermanClark, who are investing $100 million into renovating the midcentury Lever House in Manhattan. Chicago’s Merchandise Mart and Boston's One Post Office Square are also getting multi-million dollar renovations. 

Baker continued, stating of the demand for work: “They’re so busy they’re having trouble finding staff, and there are project backlogs. The pipeline for new architects isn’t as quick and easy to expand as other professions.”

Whelan concluded: “Office construction is falling off a cliff. All that work going into a new build is going into renovating space now. Very few will take a risk with the way the debt market is now.”

“Real estate has never moved quickly. That’s the nature of the beast. Frankly, it never had to, with long-term leases. And the pandemic turned that on its head. It’s an inflection point, and you need to do it or buildings will just become obsolete.” 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/10/2022 - 21:05

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Economics

Morgan Stanley: SPX could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level

The S&P 500 index could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level in the coming months that translates to another 15% downside from here, warned a Morgan…

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The S&P 500 index could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level in the coming months that translates to another 15% downside from here, warned a Morgan Stanley analyst on Monday.

Don’t be fooled by the bear market rally

Michael Wilson dubs the recent bounce (about 4.0%) in U.S. equities a “bear market rally” and says investors should brace for more pain ahead as inflation and supply constraints remain a significant headwind. In his note, the analyst said:

With valuations now more attractive, equity markets so oversold an rates potentially stabilizing below 3.0%, stocks appear to have begun another material bear market rally. After that, we remain confident that lower prices are still ahead.

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics said inflation stood at 8.30% in April – a marginal decline versus the prior month but still ahead of the Dow Jones estimate.

How to navigate the current environment?

Wilson continues to see a recession as unlikely, but agrees that the risk of such an economic downturn has certainly gone up. The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank 1.40% in the first quarter of 2022.

That is just another reason why equity risk premium is too low, and stocks are still overpriced. The bear market won’t be over until valuations fall to levels (14 – 15x) that discount the kind of earnings cuts we envision, or earnings estimates get cut.

He recommends increasing exposure to real estate, health care, and utilities stocks to navigate the current environment, while tech and consumer discretionary stocks remain a big “no” for him.

The post Morgan Stanley: SPX could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level appeared first on Invezz.

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Real Estate

Is investor appetite for non-QM changing?

HousingWire chats with Steven Schwalb, Managing Partner of Angel Oak Lending about the changes investor appetite for non-QM products.
The post Is investor…

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In 2022’s changing market, non-QM has been a hot topic for many. HousingWire recently caught up with Steven Schwalb, managing partner of Angel Oak Lending, about the changes investor appetite has gone though for non-QM.

HousingWire: What is the investor appetite for non-QM and how has that changed over the past few years?

Steven Schwalb: The investor appetite continues to be strong even in today’s volatile market. Non-QM securitizations had their biggest supply year on record in 2021 and we are still hitting records today. In fact, in the first quarter of 2022, non-QM securitizations totaled $11 billion. Of that volume, $6.2 was in March. March just so happened to be a record month for Angel Oak as well.

As a leader in bringing back this asset class, we have continued to see more and more investors look to non-QM. One common criticism of these loans in the past was that they were not stress-tested and no one knew how they would perform under those conditions. Well, the COVID pandemic brought about economic conditions that tested the performance of non-QM and they came out quite well. Since then, we have seen more and more insurance companies and money managers become interested in investing with Angel Oak and the non-QM space. This bodes especially well for the future and non-QM’s anticipated growth.

HousingWire: With so many new lenders getting into non-QM, why is it more important than ever to work with the right non-QM lender?

Steven Schwalb: Non-QM is where we play, and we have laid a solid foundation as the leaders in non-QM. Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions focuses exclusively on non-QM and we have been setting records in volume. As an organization, Angel Oak has originated over $12B in non-QM. Recently we have seen an increased focus on non-QM, which has led a number of Agency lenders attempt to get into the space.

Since there are so many more options, it is more important than ever to work with the right firm. As we always say, wouldn’t you rather work with someone who has done 10,000 non-QM loans rather than 10? The key is to understand the important questions to ask. How long have they been doing non-QM? What percentage of their overall business is non-QM? What is their origination model? Do they need a pre-closing investor review? Those are but a few important ones.

Choosing the wrong lender puts not only your reputation at risk, but the relationship with your referral partner as well! What happens when the lender tells you they can do the loan with 20% down and then at the last minute, their end investor says no? They come back saying the borrower needs to put down 30%. We’ve heard many stories of that happening. How does that impact your relationship with that referral source? These examples do not happen at Angel Oak. Our vertical integration means our affiliate, Angel Oak Capital Advisors is the end investor. We know what they’re looking for when we issue a pre-qual, and we stand behind that. This relationship allows us to write our own guidelines and quickly update them based on market conditions. Our model is to originate to retain, not to sell. As well, we do not have to seek third party approval to do a loan – we are the end investor. Surety of execution, consistently enhancing guidelines and offering flexibility through our non-QM products sets us apart. Make sure to ask lenders you are considering these types of questions.

HousingWire: Non-QM is expected to grow significantly in 2022, where is that growth going to come from?

Steven Schwalb: A couple of areas. First, with increased education and awareness, more originators are beginning to offer non-QM. That means more opportunities for these underserved borrowers to qualify for a loan.

Second is from the significant growth in the number of borrowers who need it. Increased fees from the GSEs for second homes and high balance loans have borrowers looking for more affordable options. There is also a large population of self-employed in the U.S. today. Self-employed borrowers often need Bank Statement loans because they can’t qualify using tax returns. The Department of Labor estimates 30% of the U.S. workforce is self-employed. That is around 59 million people including gig economy workers. And this demographic continues to grow at a rapid rate. We also work with originators who close deals for real estate investors who own many properties and need options outside of Agency.

HousingWire: How have the changes in the agency space (GSEs/FHFA) impacted non-QM?

Steven Schwalb: A couple of changes have impacted the non-QM space. First, stricter guidelines including condos have caused more borrowers to fall out of Agency. We are seeing more condos deemed non-warrantable and we are helping originators with these fall-out scenarios. As well, Agency has increased fees for second homes and high-balance loans. As a result, our non-QM volume is increasing with originators looking for alternative solutions to get their deals closed. After all, this is what we do – helping borrowers left outside of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and giving them another chance. At the moment, the population of borrowers in this situation is increasing.

The bottom line is that our originator partners are telling us that Angel Oak and non-QM is providing them an opportunity in today’s market to capture more purchase volume. Investors see the growth and they feel more confident investing in our non-QM borrowers. There is ample growth ahead of us!

The post Is investor appetite for non-QM changing? appeared first on HousingWire.

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Spread & Containment

A Slowdown in Showings

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Slowdown in ShowingsA brief excerpt: The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a lin…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Slowdown in Showings

A brief excerpt:
The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their data.

The first graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

There was a huge dip in showings in 2020 (black) at the start of the pandemic, and then showing were well above 2019 (blue) levels for the rest of the year. And showings in 2021 (gold) were very strong in the first half of the year, and then were closer to 2019 in the 2nd half.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that there were dips in showings during holidays (July 4th, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas), and also dips related to protests and curfews related to the deaths of George Floyd and Daunte Wright.

2022 (red) started off solid but is now below the previous three years.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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