Connect with us

Economics

Kyle Bass Believes Fed Will Be Forced To Abandon Hiking Rates As Stocks Crash

Kyle Bass Believes Fed Will Be Forced To Abandon Hiking Rates As Stocks Crash

During an interview with CNBC Thursday afternoon, Hayman Capital founder Kyle Bass joined Jeffrey Gundlach and other astute observers of the market by postulating..

Published

on

Kyle Bass Believes Fed Will Be Forced To Abandon Hiking Rates As Stocks Crash

During an interview with CNBC Thursday afternoon, Hayman Capital founder Kyle Bass joined Jeffrey Gundlach and other astute observers of the market by postulating that the Fed won't be able to succeed with its planned 4 interest-rate hikes by the end of the year.

"Gundlach said that the Fed could get to 1.5% on the Fed funds rate, which might happen in the next 12 to 18 months. But that would trigger a recession," he said.

But by the time the Fed gets to the second hike, markets will tank, forcing the central bank to backtrack.

Speaking during his first CNBC interview of the year, Bass argued that there's a "huge mismatch, I think, between policy and reality...when you look at the reality of hydrocarbon demand...the reality is that...we've been pulling CapEx out of the oil patch because we so desperately want to switch to alternative energy. The problem is you can't just turn off hydrocarbons. It takes 40 or 50 years to switch fuel sources," Bass explained.

And as the global economy shakes off the impact of the pandemic, Bass predicted that "the same forces that applied to bring oil below zero [

Kyle Bass agrees with Gundlach (and the market): "The Fed can't raise rates more than a 100-125 bps before they have to stop"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 13, 2022 ">back in April 2020] will apply on the upside. We will get the world reopened by the middle of the year...you can't just flip on an oil well...the only people funding the oil patch are family offices."

As demand for oil intensifies,  the dynamic will send prices on front-month contracts "well above" $100/barrel", Bass projected.

"There are so few people out there funding CapEx...if we reopen, you're going to see numbers that people aren't ready for."

Bass's interlocutors then opted to switch gears with some questions about China. After Wilfred Frost gently accused Bass of being a China bear, Bass insisted that he considers himself a "China realist" before launching into a discussion of China's real-estate market.

As many investors may have learned from all the reporting about Evergrande and other deeply indebted China developers in recent months, roughly one-third of China's economy is driven by real estate.

The surge in prices has contributed to China's demographic nightmare, Bass said. "...the average birth rate of women in China fell below 1.2...you had an aggressive population decline because men can't afford to buy homes because they're priced at 20x to 30x their annual income."

This has become a problem for China's leaders.

"Xi needs real estate prices down and he needs them to stay down," Bass said.

As for those who are betting on a bounce in Chinese stocks, Bass characterized this as "a fool's game."

As for whether or not he'd ever invest in Chinese stocks again, Bass replied:

"Fool me once but you're not going to fool me twice...I feel like people who are investing in Chinese equities are breaking their fiduciary duty to their investors."

Circling back to a discussion about the Fed, Bass pointed to Goldman's call for 4 hikes this year. When the Fed does deliver on the rate hikes it has led the market to expect, "the curve is going to flatten, the long end of the curve will invert and the Fed" will likely need to throw it in reverse.

"My personal view is they can't raise short rates more than 100-125 basis points before they have to stop," Bass said.

Once this happens, a recession in the US will likely follow.

"I think they're going to have to back away from that plan once they start hiking...that's my view.

With all this in mind, "there's no way the stock market goes up this year and it probably goes down pretty aggressively," Bass concluded.

And once the Fed starts hiking rates, this, compounded by surging oil prices "will compound people's inflation problems." And that is already very modestly bring priced in... March rate-hike odds are rising to cycle highs but the odds of 4 rate-hikes by year-end are sliding...

So, after more than a decade of easy money policies, 2022 is shaping up to be a difficult year for American consumers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/13/2022 - 19:40

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE

Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

AgTech innovator taps integrated communications and marketing agency to drive global growth and brand awareness
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire…

Published

on

Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE

PR Newswire

AgTech innovator taps integrated communications and marketing agency to drive global growth and brand awareness

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Peppercomm, award-winning, strategic and integrated communications and marketing agency, today announced it has been named global PR agency of record for AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: AGRI; AGRIW), an AgTech company dedicated to advancing sustainable cultivation and crop processing to yield more nutritious food with limited environmental impact. AgriFORCE selected Peppercomm following a competitive evaluation of several firms.

Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, AgriFORCE is poised to disrupt the agriculture industry by building a portfolio of proprietary AgTech solutions to help growers achieve higher quality and more sustainably produced crops, alongside branded products and ingredients that unlock superior nutrition for consumers. With an agreement to acquire Delphy Group BV and a binding LOI to acquire Deroose Plants NV recently announced, the company's strategic and holistic approach aims to address key challenges facing the agriculture industry.

"We're pleased to work with a company that can have a real impact on our food and our planet," said Steve Cody, CEO of Peppercomm. "The global pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine have significantly affected the food supply chain and accelerated the need for solutions to address these extraordinary challenges. AgriFORCE's IP and expertise are coming to the marketplace at just the right time."

Peppercomm will help AgriFORCE build global brand awareness through an integrated approach that includes strategic counsel, messaging development, thought leadership, earned media and social media, and digital advertising. 

"AgriFORCE is excited to partner with Peppercomm as our agency of record," shared Mauro Pennella, President of AgriFORCE Brands and CMO of AgriFORCE Growing Systems. "Peppercomm has strong experience across agriculture, agtech, and consumer brands, including public companies with multinational operations. We are confident that their tight-knit and senior team, with existing industry and media relationships, can bring to life the vision and purpose of AgriFORCE in the months ahead."

About Peppercomm
Peppercomm is an award-winning strategic, integrated communications and marketing agency headquartered in New York City with offices in San Francisco and London. The firm, which was recently acquired by Ruder Finn, combines 27 award-winning years of expertise serving blue chip and breakout clients with forward-thinking new service offerings and the freshness of a start-up. This unique mix of experience and energy enables the firm to attract and empower teams with a creative edge, drive, and passion for promoting, protecting, and connecting clients in a fast-changing marketplace. Founded in 1995, Peppercomm has received numerous accolades, including Crain's Best Places to Work in NYC 2021, PRWeek's Best Places to Work 2020, the Agency Elite 100, SABRE Award (Integrated Campaign), PRSA Big Apple (2020, 2019 Winner Integrated Campaign), Platinum PR Awards (Media Relations), PRNews Digital Awards (CSR), the Bulldog PR Awards (Media Relations) and PR Daily's Top Agencies of 2022 among others. For more information visit peppercomm.com.

About AgriFORCE
AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: AGRI; AGRIW) is an AgTech company focused on the development and acquisition of crop production know-how and intellectual property augmented by advanced AgTech facilities and solutions. Looking to serve the global market, the Company's current focus is on North America, Europe, and Asia. The AgriFORCE vision is to be a leader in delivering plant-based foods and products through advanced and sustainable AgTech solution platforms that make positive change in the world—from seed to table. The AgriFORCE goal: Clean. Green. Better. Additional information about AgriFORCE is available at: agriforcegs.com.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/peppercomm-named-public-relations-agency-of-record-for-agriforce-301607856.html

SOURCE Peppercomm

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN’T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS

NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN’T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

66% of consumers are more mindful of spending on groceries85% of …

Published

on

NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN'T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS

PR Newswire

  • 66% of consumers are more mindful of spending on groceries
  • 85% of Americans are concerned or very concerned about inflation
  • 58%  believe the cost of living will be more expensive in the coming year
  • 46% of consumers say they're buying fewer non-essentials
  • 43% seek out sales and promotions to afford their favorite brands 

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Nearly half of Americans (45%) feel like they can't afford their previous lifestyle and 76% of American consumers say their family has changed how they buy food with prices on the rise. In addition, two-thirds (66%) are more mindful of how they are spending their money. These findings are part of a new consumer sentiment survey on inflation commissioned by NCSolutions (NCS), the leading company for improving advertising effectiveness.

Eighty-five percent of Americans are very concerned or extremely concerned about inflation and almost unanimously (93%) they said we're in an inflationary time. On the same economic theme, over half (57%) are concerned about the country's financial situation, while 47% say they're concerned about their family's financial situation. Eight out of 10 or 83% of Americans expect the cost of living will become somewhat more or much more expensive in the coming year. Sixty-five percent of Americans agree with the statement 'my income has not increased as fast at the cost of food, beverage and personal care products.'

"For the second time in a little over two years, consumers are pivoting to new purchasing behaviors at the grocery store," commented Alan Miles, CEO, NCSolutions. "Since the start of the pandemic, they've been swapping their favorite brands for what's available. Today, though, value is the centerpiece more often than availability, consumers are selecting brands and products to stretch their budgets as far as possible. CPG brands that meet customers where they are both in this inflationary moment and as prices ease have the best shot at keeping them for the long-term."

SIX YEARS OF PRICE TRENDS
NCSolutions' proprietary purchase data, which reflects the buying trends of consumers for CPG products, shows an almost 13% price increase on average. In a six-year price trend analysis, we see that price increases in 2022 are pacing at an accelerated rate compared to other years.  The survey findings bear this out with 58% of consumers believing the cost of living will be much more expensive in the coming year and 71% feeling the U.S. economy is declining. 

Six-year Inflation Trend

 

Percentage Inflation Change Year-Over-Year

On a consumer packaged goods category level, there are wide variations in percentage increases.

CONSUMERS REACT TO THE PINCH
Compared to one year ago, six in 10 Americans believe CPG product packaging has gotten smaller but costs the same. Consumers still feel the strain of supply chain issues as 69% say there are fewer items of the same product on the shelves. Thirty-six percent of Americans said there is less variety of  brands available on the shelf today compared with one year ago.

Over half (53%) of American consumers say they find basic food staples more expensive; 40% believe a recession will occur in 2023. For almost half of consumers (46%), this means buying fewer non-essential items on the food aisle, or for 43%, it means buying only the essentials.  Seventy-one percent of Americans say the increased price of groceries is straining their savings. For other American consumers, increased prices on the grocery aisle mean seeking out less expensive brands (45%).  Other ways consumers are coping with the increased price of groceries are loading up the pantry (27%) or freezer (26%) or shopping closer to home (24%).

When it comes to consumers' preferred brands, they have to make tough choices. Sixty percent of consumers seek less expensive alternatives when their favorite brands reach a price beyond their budget. Forty-six percent of consumers plan to go without their favorite brands, and 43% of consumers look for sales to offset the cost. In the survey, respondents could select multiple ways they react.

June 2021 vs. June 2022: Inflation Increases by category

"Though it may be tempting to pull back on advertising, a more effective strategy is to recognize and respond to consumer 'stress-flation.' Brands have an opportunity now to build loyalty and attract new customers with empathetic marketing," said Leslie Wood, Chief Research Officer, NCSolutions. "We're heading into a period of heavy CPG purchasing moments, such as back to school and the approaching holidays. Compelling, well-targeted advertising is a proven strategy for increasing brand equity and sales both in the short- and long-term."

CONSUMER PRIORITIES
Respondents were asked, "When shopping for groceries, which products are most important." The majority ranked:

  1. Affordable products that provide a clear value for my money 
  2. Finding food products that feed their families for several meals
  3. Products they know their families will enjoy eating

ABOUT THE CONSUMER SURVEY: The online survey of 2,141 respondents was fielded from June 17- 20, 2022.  Responses presented in this survey were weighted by location, education, income and other demographics to be representative of the overall population. To read more about the findings, you can download the full report

ABOUT NCS
NCSolutions makes advertising work better. Our unrivaled data resources powered by leading providers combine with scientific rigor and leading-edge technology to empower the CPG ecosystem to create and deliver more effective advertising. With NCS's proven approach, brands achieve continuous optimization everywhere ads appear through purchase-based audience targeting and sales measurement solutions that have impacted billions in media spend for our customers. NCS is a joint venture company with  Nielsen as the majority owner. 

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nearly-half-of-americans-feel-they-cant-afford-their-former-lifestyle-three-fourths-are-shifting-grocery-purchasing-behaviors-finds-ncsolutions-301608518.html

SOURCE NCSolutions

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge

Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The “Legal Services Market” report has been added to SpendEdge’s…

Published

on

Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Legal Services Market" report has been added to SpendEdge's library which is trusted by more than 100 CPOs and 500 category managers who use our insights daily.

The Legal Services market is poised to grow by USD 187.38 Billion, progressing at a CAGR of almost 3.64% during the forecast period

https://spendedge.com/sample-report/process-instrumentation-sourcing-and-procurement-intelligence-report

Key Highlights Offered in the Report:

  • Information on how to identify strategic and tactical negotiation levels that will help achieve the best prices.
  • Gain information on relevant pricing levels, and a detailed explanation of the pros and cons of prevalent pricing models.
  • Methods to help engage with the right suppliers and discover KPIs to evaluate incumbent suppliers.

Fetch actionable market insights on the post-COVID-19 impact on each product and service segment.

Some of the Top Legal Services suppliers listed in this report:

This Legal Services procurement intelligence report has enlisted the top suppliers and their cost structures, SLA terms, best selection criteria, and negotiation strategies.

  • Latham and Watkins
  • Allen and Overy
  • Hogan Lovells

Fetch actionable market insights on the post-COVID-19 impact on each product and service segment:

https://spendedge.com/sample-report/process-instrumentation-sourcing-and-procurement-intelligence-report

Top Selling Report:

  1. Asset Recovery Services - Forecast and AnalysisThe asset recovery services will grow at a CAGR of 9.49% during 2021-2025. Asia Asset Recovery Pte Ltd., TES-Amm Singapore Pte Ltd., and Iron Mountain Inc. are among the prominent suppliers in the asset recovery services market. Click the above link to download the free sample of this report.
  2. Vulnerability Management Sourcing and Procurement ReportVulnerability Management Procurement Market, prices will increase by 4%-6% during the forecast period and suppliers will have moderate bargaining power in this market. Click the above link to download the free sample of this report.
  3. Business Process Outsourcing Services- Sourcing and Procurement Intelligence ReportThis report offers key advisory and intelligence to help buyers identify and shortlist the most suitable suppliers for their Legal Services. Click the above link to download the free sample of this report.

To access the definite purchasing guide on the Legal Services that answers all your key questions on price trends and analysis:

  • Am I paying/getting the right prices? Is my Legal Services TCO (total cost of ownership) favorable?
  • How is the price forecast expected to change? What is driving the current and future price changes?
  • Which pricing models offer the most rewarding opportunities?

Register for a free trial today and gain instant access to 1,200+ market research reports.
SpendEdge's SUBSCRIPTION platform

Table of Content

  • Executive Summary
  • Market Insights
  • Category Pricing Insights
  • Cost-saving Opportunities
  • Best Practices
  • Category Ecosystem
  • Category Management Strategy
  • Category Management Enablers
  • Suppliers Selection
  • Suppliers under Coverage
  • US Market Insights
  • Category scope
  • Appendix

About SpendEdge:

SpendEdge shares your passion for driving sourcing and procurement excellence. We are the preferred procurement market intelligence partner for 120+ Fortune 500 firms and other leading companies across numerous industries. Our strength lies in delivering robust, real-time procurement market intelligence reports and solutions.

Contacts:

SpendEdge
Anirban Choudhury
Marketing Manager
Ph No:
+1 (872) 206-9340
https://www.spendedge.com/contact-us

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/legal-services-sourcing-and-procurement-market-by-2025-covid-19-impact--recovery-analysis--spendedge-301607767.html

SOURCE SpendEdge

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending