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Kroger, Target, Covid: The 4 Biggest Retail Stories of 2022

Target, Walmart, Amazon, Albertson’s, and Kroger all had huge years despite (or maybe because of) the covid hangover.

Target, Walmart, Amazon, Albertson's, and Kroger all had huge years despite (or maybe because of) the covid hangover.

Covid created havoc for retailers in 2021. After a year when Americans suffered through lockdowns and most of us largely stayed at home, the great reopening of 2022 made it really hard for chains to decide what inventory they needed to stock. Add in rising costs in both goods and labor along with supply chain problems and retailers of all sizes faced unique challenges.

This past year was a period when the biggest retailers generally got stronger. Walmart (WMT) - Get Free Report, Amazon, (AMZN) - Get Free Report, and Target (TGT) - Get Free Report had the customer reach and buying power to avoid many of the supply-chain issues that plagued smaller rivals. Costco (COST) - Get Free Report and Dollar General (DG) - Get Free Report also had strong years driven by the ability to keep prices in check in the warehouse club's case and its low-cost model and massive footprint in the discount retailers.

In most cases, strength was not reflected in stock prices as fear of a recession, worries about inflation, and inventory concerns tended to be a drag on share prices. It was a unique year for retailers--one likely to not ever be repeated again--and these are the biggest stories from the retail world in 2022.

Kroger, Albertsons Plan to Merge

Rival supermarket companies Kroger (KR) - Get Free Report and Albertsons (ACI) - Get Free Report shocked many in October when they shared plans for a merger that is one of the largest deals in the grocery industry's history. Subject to regulatory approval, Kroger would purchase Albertson's for about $24.6 billion.

The combined company would give Kroger stores in 48 states and create a supermarket chain that would compete with non-grocery companies such as Walmart and Amazon that have squeezed the industry in recent years.

Together, Kroger and Albertsons have 710,000 employees with nearly 5,000 stores, about 60 distribution centers, and 50 manufacturing plants. They also operate approximately 4,000 pharmacies and 2,000 fuel centers.

In a move designed to satisfy regulators, Albertsons is preparing to establish a subsidiary before the merger's completion. The subsidiary would operate as a standalone public company and would operate more than 100 stores.

"An argument can be made that a stronger combined company could possibly help reduce food inflation as it would have more negotiating power to push back against food producers’ proposed price increases,” said Krisztina Katai, equity research analyst at Deutsche Bank. "It would also mean greater competition for food manufacturers. This comes at a time when consumers are increasingly looking for value and trading into private brands to help reduce the strain of higher food prices."

Kroger Chairman and CEO Rodney McMullen would remain in both leadership positions assuming the merger is completed.

Image source: TheStreet

Target, Walmart Turn Inventory Lemons Into Lemonade

During the pandemic, Americans spent their money on things for their homes. That's why it was a banner year for jigsaw puzzles, as well as televisions, appliances, furniture, and certain electronics. No retailer knew exactly when that trend would end which left Walmart and Target sitting in warehouses full of large, big-ticket items that weren't what customers were looking to buy.

Both companies could have held that inventory and hoped to sell it during the holiday season at decent, if not premium prices. Instead, both Target and Walmart made the tough decision to sell off excess inventory at big discounts. Wall Street did not like that decision, but it was a move that strengthened both companies' ties with their customers while also allowing them to bring in the merchandise that will sell well during the holiday season.

That's essentially what Amazon does each year with its Prime Day event (events this year). It cleans out the warehouse, sells off goods that weren't moving fast enough, and opens up space for the items it expects to be in demand going forward. Only the biggest, most successful retailers can make that kind of call, but by doing it Walmart and Target took a margin hit that set them up for holiday season success.

Five Major Retailers File Bankruptcy in 2022

The retail industry has faced some headwinds in 2022 with rising inflation and worries of a recession taking hold. The inflation rate was 7.7% for the 12 months ending Oct. 31, 2022. Despite the highest inflation rates that the country has seen in about 40 years and several tech firms laying off thousands of workers in recent weeks, the U.S. unemployment rate has been stable. The rate was unchanged in November from October at 3.7% after recording 3.5% in September, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

These economic worries, however, have not led to a wave of retail bankruptcies similar to what the industry endured at the start of the covid pandemic with about 30 major retail bankruptcies filed in 2020, according to Retail Dive, or the financial crisis when about 441 retailers filed for bankruptcy in 2008, S&P Global reported.

Few retail companies have filed for bankruptcy with about five notable retailers filing so far in 2022. The first half of the year had the lowest amount of Chapter 11 filings in 12 years, BDO U.S.A. reported. The biggest name to file was cosmetics company Revlon, which filed Chapter 11 reorganization on June 16. Sporting goods retailer Olympia Sports Acquisition, which operated about 150 stores at one time in the Northeast, filed for Chapter 11 liquidation on Sept. 11 with plans to close down its remaining 35 stores.

Computer retailer Simply Inc., which operated 42 Simply Mac stores in 18 states, filed for Chapter 11 on June 14, home furnishings retailer Cherry Man Industries filed for bankruptcy on March 18, and BH Cosmetics Holdings filed Chapter 11 on Jan. 18.

Drive-Up: From Pandemic Necessity to Required Service

As the pandemic settled in as a stark reality in early 2020, retailers scrambled to adapt to a landscape where people were afraid to enter stores for fear of contracting the virus. But those businesses also needed their customers to thrive, so they had to scramble to find a way to continue to bring in money.

While many big-name retailers embraced drive-up to keep their businesses alive during this frightening time, the availability of the service quickly spawned the realization that people could not only stay safer in this way, but also cut down on stress and time spent by simply ordering online and having their groceries or household items delivered to their car. 

Target saw an opportunity in the service and decided to expand it in 2022, dedicating a full row in its parking lot to drive up and also offering returns and Starbucks orders directly to the car. 

While curbside services are still offered everywhere from Walmart to Kroger, Target embraced it in a way that few other retailers did, locking the service in as a permanent fixture. This has raised the bar for the rest of the industry--meaning it's likely we'll see other retailers that offer drive-up adding more features to the service come 2023.

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
  • Aging Facebook
  • Aging Instagram
  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
  • Aging Pinterest
  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.


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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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