It was another rollercoaster week - the 11th drop in the past 13 - which however ended with a monster rally in bonds and stocks as markets priced in the coming Fed rate cuts, and although it'll likely be on the quieter side in markets today, we won't be able to escape the near-term recession risks for very long. As we noted last week, the Atlanta Fed Q2 tracker is now at -2.08% after slumping into negative territory at the end of last week, and if this is close to the mark that would mean two negative quarters and a technical recession.
The official definition is owned by the NBER and they will likely need more evidence (and a political green light or three) before they would declare it as they look at a broader range of indicators than just headline growth. However we'll likely know we're in it before it's declared so it'll be crucial to work out if this is the start to a descent into bigger problems or if that's still some months away. Note, as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes, it continues to be "when not if".
A big swing factor here could be employment and this week is jam packed with US labor data. Payrolls (Friday) will be the headliner but JOLTS (Wednesday), ADP and claims (Thursday) will also be very important. As Jim Reid notes, labor markets remain strong around the world and although this is a generally a lagging indicator, some kind of turn should occur before we can declare what is absolutely the inevitable dive into recession (there is an outside chance of a negative print as soon as this Friday).
For what it's worth, DB economists expect payrolls to slow (+225k forecast vs. +390k previously) but with unemployment falling a tenth to 3.5%. In many ways JOLTS (Wednesday) is the preferred employment measure although it has the disadvantage of being even more delayed as it is a month behind so we'll only get May's data this week. In the report, job openings have remained roughly 4.5mn above where they were prior to the pandemic so unless this dips there will still be a lot of demand for labor and the tightness will continue, leaving the Fed with a huge dilemma as growth slows. June's US services ISM on Wednesday will be watched for the headline growth implications and also the employment component which has been 'only' hovering around 50 in recent months.
It's worth noting, as DB's Reid does, that the increased growth pessimism towards the end of last week stabilized equities as a big rally in bonds and a more dovish repricing of the Fed kicked in. 10yr Treasuries rallied -25.0bps last week (-13.3bps Friday), their largest weekly decline since March 2020, and although the S&P 500 finished -2.21% lower, it did rally +1.06% on Friday on lower yields as Fed expectations kicked in.
Back to the week ahead and we'll see how central banks were thinking about this weak growth vs labor tightness dilemma in the minutes from the Fed's (Wednesday) and ECB's (Thursday) June meetings but this will be slightly dated in light of how rapidly the macro is evolving.
Elsewhere, trade and industrial data will be due from key economies globally. May trade data will be out for the US (Thursday), Germany (today), Japan and France (Friday). For the US, May factory orders will be released tomorrow, followed by June's ISM services index on Wednesday. In Europe, the Eurozone's PPI for May is due today, followed by May industrial production for Germany (Thursday) and France, June PMIs for Italy (Tuesday), and Germany's May factory orders (Wednesday).
In Asia, the highlight will perhaps be the Caixin services and composite PMIs for China and the RBA meeting taking place tomorrow. Our economists expect the central bank to hike by +50bp.
Courtesy of DB, here is the full week ahead calendar day-by-day
Monday July 4
- Data: Japan June monetary base, Germany May trade balance, Eurozone May PPI, Canada June PMI
- Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Guindos speak, BoC's Business Outlook
Tuesday July 5
- Data: US May factory orders, China June services and composite Caixin PMIs, Japan May labour cash earnings, France May industrial and manufacturing production, Italy June services and composite PMI, deficit to GDP Q1, UK June new car registrations, official reserves changes, Canada May building permits
- Central banks: BoE's financial stability report, BoE's Tenreyro speaks. RBA meeting.
Wednesday July 6
- Data: US June ISM services index, May JOLTS report, China June foreign reserves, Germany May factory orders, June construction PMI, UK June construction PMI, Eurozone May retail sales
- Central banks: FOMC June meeting minutes, ECB's Rehn speaks, BoE's Pill and Cunliffe speak
Thursday July 7
- Data: US May trade balance, June ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, Japan May leading and coincident index, Germany May industrial production, Canada May international merchandise trade
- Central banks: ECB's account of June meeting, Fed's Waller and Bullard speak, BoE's decision maker survey, BoE's Mann speaks, ECB's Lane, Stournaras, Centeno and Herodotou speak
Friday July 8
- Data: US June nonfarm payrolls report, unemployment rate, participation rate, average hourly earnings, May wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, Japan June Economy Watcher survey, bank lending, bankruptcies, May household spending, trade balance, France May trade balance, Italy May industrial production, Canada June net change in employment, unemployment rate, hourly wage rate, participation rate
- Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Lagarde and Villeroy speak
* * *
Finally, looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS job openings and ISM services reports on Wednesday, and the employment situation report on Friday. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday and there are several speaking engagements from Fed officials, including Governor Waller and presidents Williams and Bullard.
Monday, July 4
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Tuesday, July 5
- 10:00 AM Factory orders, May (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Durable goods orders, May final (last +0.7%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, May final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, May final (last +0.8%): We estimate that factory orders increased 0.6% in May following a 0.3% increase in April. Durable goods orders increased 0.7% in the May advance report, and core capital goods orders increased 0.5%.
Wednesday, July 6
- 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will make remarks at a virtual event on bank culture hosted by the New York Fed. On June 28, President Williams said, “In terms of our next meeting, I think 50 to 75 [basis points] is clearly going to be the debate. He added, “We’re far from where we need to be [regarding the federal funds rate]. My own baseline projection is we do need to get into somewhat restrictive territory next year given the high inflation...” He also indicated his growth forecast falls on the lower range among Fed officials: “I am expecting growth to slow this year, quite a bit, relative to what we had last year, and actually to slow to probably 1% to 1.5% GDP growth.”
- 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, June final (consensus 51.6, last 51.6)
- 10:00 AM ISM services index, June (GS 54.4, consensus 54.0, last 55.9): We estimate that the ISM services index declined 1.5pt to 54.4 in June. Our forecast reflects sequential weakness in construction and real estate activity and the decline in our services tracker (-2.6pt to 53.9).
- 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, May (consensus 11,000k, last 11,400k)
- 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 14-15 meeting: The FOMC increased the federal funds rate target range by 75bp to 1.5%-1.75% at its June meeting. The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a funds rate midpoint of 3.375% at end-2022. The statement dropped the expectation of a strong labor market, instead emphasizing that the Committee is “strongly committed” to returning inflation to target. The SEP showed a 0.5pp increase in the unemployment rate by end-2024 and below-potential GDP growth in 2022 and 2023.
- On June 22, Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed will make “continued expeditious progress toward higher rates,” and noted “financial conditions have already priced in additional rate increases, but we need to go ahead and have them.” Chair Powell also noted that the Fed would not engage in active sales of mortgage-backed securities anytime soon. He emphasized that while the FOMC is “not trying to provoke and do not think we will need to provoke a recession,” it remained “absolutely essential” for the Fed to restore price stability, and noted that it would be “very challenging” for the Fed to achieve a soft landing.
Thursday, July 7
- 08:30 AM Trade Balance, May (GS -$84.7bn, consensus -$84.9bn, last -$87.1bn): We estimate that the trade deficit decreased by $2.4bn to -$84.7bn in May, reflecting an increase in exports in the advanced goods report.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 2 (GS 225k, consensus 230k, last 231k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 25 (consensus 1,330k, last 1,328k); We estimate initial jobless claims ticked down to 225k in the week ended July 2:
- 01:00 PM Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in an interview during a virtual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) event. A moderated Q&A is expected. On June 18, Governor Waller said, “This week, the FOMC took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points. In my view, and I speak only for myself, if the data comes in as I expect I will support a similar-sized move at our July meeting.” He added, “The Fed is ‘all in’ on re-establishing price stability.”
- 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Little Rock Regional Chamber. A Q&A with media and audience is expected. When discussing the US economy on June 24, President Bullard said, “I actually think we will be fine. It is a little early to have this debate about recession probabilities in the US” and reiterated his call for “front-loading” rate hikes. He noted, “this is in the early stages of the US recovery – or US expansion, we are beyond recovery. It would be unusual to go back into recession at this stage. Interest-rate increases will slow down the economy, but will probably slow down to more of a trend pace of growth as opposed to going below trend. I don’t think this is a huge slowing. I think it is a moderate slowing in the economy.” On June 28, he published an essay on lessons from the 1974 and 1983 US policy responses to inflation.
Friday, July 8
- 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, June (GS +250k, consensus +273k, last +390k); Private payroll employment, June (GS +200k, consensus +240k, last +333k); Average hourly earnings (mom), June (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), June (GS +5.0%, consensus +5.0%, last +5.2%); Unemployment rate, June (GS 3.6%, consensus 3.6%, last 3.6%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in June (mom sa), a slowdown from the +390k pace in May. Job growth tends to be strong in June when the labor market is tight as firms aggressively hire youth summer workers. However, the June seasonal factors have evolved significantly more restrictive—perhaps overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in June 2020 and June 2021—and represent a headwind of roughly 200k in our view. Additionally, Big Data employment indicators were generally weaker in the month, consistent with a possible drag from tighter financial conditions and modestly higher layoffs in the retail and tech sectors. We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.6%, reflecting a solid rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.4%. We estimate a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that lowers the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 5.0%. The arrival of the youth labor force may have eased some of the upward pressure on wages, but we see scope for supervisory earnings to rebound after two weak months (we assume neutral calendar effects).
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (consensus +2.0%, last +2.0%)
- 11:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will make remarks at an event hosted by the University of Puerto Rico. A Q&A with media and audience is expected.
Source: DB, BofA, Goldman Sachs
Yom Kippur is coming soon – what does Judaism actually say about forgiveness?
Many religions value forgiveness, but the details of their teachings differ. A psychologist of religion explains how Christian and Jewish attitudes co…
The Jewish High Holidays are fast approaching: Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur. While the first really commemorates the creation of the world, Jews view both holidays as a chance to reflect on our shortcomings, make amends and seek forgiveness, both from other people and from the Almighty.
Jews pray and fast on Yom Kippur to demonstrate their remorse and to focus on reconciliation. According to Jewish tradition, it is at the end of this solemn period that God seals his decision about each person’s fate for the coming year. Congregations recite a prayer called the “Unetanah Tokef,” which recalls God’s power to decide “who shall live and who shall die, who shall reach the ends of his days and who shall not” – an ancient text that Leonard Cohen popularized with his song “Who by Fire.”
Forgiveness and related concepts, such as compassion, are central virtues in many religions. What’s more, research has shown that it is psychologically beneficial.
But each religious tradition has its own particular views about forgiveness, as well, including Judaism. As a psychologist of religion, I have done research on these similarities and differences when it comes to forgiveness.
Person to person
Several specific attitudes about forgiveness are reflected in the liturgy of the Jewish High Holidays, so those who go to services are likely to be aware of them – even if they skip out for a snack.
In Jewish theology, only the victim has the right to forgive an offense against another person, and an offender should repent toward the victim before forgiveness can take place. Someone who has hurt another person must sincerely apologize three times. If the victim still withholds forgiveness, the offender is considered forgiven, and the victim now shares the blame.
The 10-day period known as the “Days of Awe” – Rosh Hashana, Yom Kippur and the days between – is a popular time for forgiveness. Observant Jews reach out to friends and family they have wronged over the past year so that they can enter Yom Kippur services with a clean conscience and hope they have done all they can to mitigate God’s judgment.
The teaching that only a victim can forgive someone implies that God cannot forgive offenses between people until the relevant people have forgiven each other. It also means that some offenses, such as the Holocaust, can never be forgiven, because those martyred are dead and unable to forgive.
To forgive or not to forgive?
In psychological research, I have found that most Jewish and Christian participants endorse the views of forgiveness espoused by their religions.
As in Judaism, most Christian teachings encourage people to ask and give forgiveness for harms done to one another. But they tend to teach that more sins should be forgiven – and can be, by God, because Jesus’ death atoned vicariously for people’s sins.
Even in Christianity, not all offenses are forgivable. The New Testament describes blaspheming against the Holy Spirit as an unforgivable sin. And Catholicism teaches that there is a category called “mortal sins,” which cut off sinners from God’s grace unless they repent.
One of my research papers, consisting of three studies, shows that a majority of Jewish participants believe that some offenses are too severe to forgive; that it doesn’t make sense to ask someone other than the victim about forgiveness; and that forgiveness is not offered unconditionally, but after the offender has tried to make things right.
Take this specific example: In one of my research studies I asked Jewish and Christian participants if they thought a Jew should forgive a dying Nazi soldier who requested forgiveness for killing Jews. This scenario is described in “The Sunflower” by Simon Wiesenthal, a writer and Holocaust survivor famous for his efforts to prosecute German war criminals.
Jewish participants often didn’t think the question made sense: How could someone else – someone living – forgive the murder of another person? The Christian participants, on the other hand, who were all Protestants, usually said to forgive. They agreed more often with statements like “Mr. Wiesenthal should have forgiven the SS soldier” and “Mr. Wiesenthal would have done the virtuous thing if he forgave the soldier.”
It’s not just about the Holocaust. We also asked about a more everyday scenario – imagining that a student plagiarized a paper that participants’ friends had written, and then asked the participants for forgiveness – and saw similar results.
Jewish people have a wide variety of opinions on these topics, though, as they do in all things. “Two Jews, three opinions!” as the old saying goes. In other studies with my co-researchers, we showed that Holocaust survivors, as well as Jewish American college students born well after the Holocaust, vary widely in how tolerant they are of German people and products. Some are perfectly fine with traveling to Germany and having German friends, and others are unwilling to even listen to Beethoven.
In these studies, the key variable that seems to distinguish Jewish people who are OK with Germans and Germany from those who are not is to what extent they associate all Germans with Nazism. Among the Holocaust survivors, for example, survivors who had been born in Germany – and would have known German people before the war – were more tolerant than those whose first, perhaps only, exposure to Germans had been in the camps.
Forgiveness is good for you – or is it?
American society – where about 7 in 10 people identify as Christian – generally views forgiveness as a positive virtue. What’s more, research has found there are emotional and physical benefits to letting go of grudges.
But does this mean forgiveness is always the answer? To me, it’s an open question.
For example, future research could explore whether forgiveness is always psychologically beneficial, or only when it aligns with the would-be forgiver’s religious views.
If you are observing Yom Kippur, remember that – as with every topic – Judaism has a wide and, well, forgiving view of what is acceptable when it comes to forgiveness.
Adam B. Cohen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.white house pandemic covid-19 germany
EasyJet share price has collapsed by 53% in 2022. Is it a buy?
The EasyJet (LON: EZJ) share price has hit turbulence as concerns about demand and soaring costs remain. It dropped to a low of 293p, which was the lowest…
The EasyJet (LON: EZJ) share price has hit turbulence as concerns about demand and soaring costs remain. It dropped to a low of 293p, which was the lowest level since November 2011. It has plummeted by more than 82% from its all-time high, giving it a market cap of more than 2.5 billion pounds.
Is EasyJet a good buy?
EasyJet is a leading regional airline that operates mostly in Europe. It has hundreds of aircraft and thousands of employees. In 2021, the firm’s revenue jumped to more than 1.49 billion pounds, which was a strong recovery from what it made in the previous year.
EasyJet’s business is doing well as demand for flights rises. In the most recent results, the firm said that forward bookings for Q3 were 76% sold and 36% sold for Q4. For some destinations, bookings have been much higher than before the pandemic.
EasyJet’s business made more than 1.75 billion in revenue in the first half of the year. This happened as passenger revenue rose to 1.15 billion while ancillary revenue jumped to 603 million pounds. The firm managed to make a loss before tax of more than 114 million pounds. It attributed that loss to higher costs and forex conversions.
As I wrote on this article on IAG, EasyJet share price has collapsed as investors worry about the soaring cost of doing business. Besides, jet fuel and wages have jumped sharply in the past few months. Also, analysts and investors are concerned about flight cancellations in its key markets.
Still, there is are two key catalysts for EasyJet. For one, as the stock collapses, it could become a viable acquisition target. In 2021, the management rejected a relatively attractive bid from Wizz Air. Another bid could happen if the stock continues tumbling.
Further, the company could do well as the aviation industry stabilizes in the coming months. A key challenge is that confidence in Europe and the UK.
EasyJet share price forecast
The daily chart shows that the EasyJet stock price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. During this time, the stock has tumbled below all moving averages. It has also formed what looks like a falling wedge pattern, which is usually a bullish sign.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the oversold level while the Awesome Oscillator has moved below the neutral point.
Therefore, in the near term, the stock will likely continue falling as sellers target the support at 270p. In the long-term, however, the shares will likely rebound as the falling wedge reaches its confluence level.
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August data shows UK automotive sector heading for a “cliff-edge” in 2023
With an all-out macroeconomic storm brewing in the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) has been forced to intervene in the tumultuous gilt markets, particularly…
With an all-out macroeconomic storm brewing in the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) has been forced to intervene in the tumultuous gilt markets, particularly towards the tail end of the yield curve (details of which were reported on Invezz here).
Car manufacturing is a key industry in the UK. Recently, it registered a turnover of roughly £67 billion, provided direct employment to 182,000 people, and a total of nearly 800,000 jobs across the entire automotive supply chain, while contributing to 10% of exports.
Just after midnight GMT, data on fresh car production for the month of August was released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited (SMMT).
Strong annual growth but monthly decline
Car production in the UK surged 34% year-over-year settling at just under 50,000 units. This marked the fourth consecutive month of positive growth on an annual basis.
However, twelve months ago, production was heavily dampened by a plethora of supply chain bottlenecks, work stoppages on account of the pandemic, and a worldwide shortage of microchips. The August 2021 output of 37,246 units was the lowest recorded August volume since way back in 1956.
Although the improvement in output is a good sign, equally it is on the back of a heavily depressed performance.
To place the latest data in its proper context, production is still 45.9% below August 2019 levels of 92,158 units, showing just how far adrift the industry is from the pre-pandemic period.
Since July, production in the sector fell 14%.
The fact that the UK is facing a deep economic malaise becomes even more evident when we look at full-year numbers for 2020 and 2021.
In 2020, total output came in at 920,928 units, while 2021 was even lower at 859,575. The last time that the UK automotive sector produced less than one million cars in a calendar year was 1986.
Unfortunately, 2022 has seen only 511,106 units produced thus far, a 13.3% decline compared to January to August 2021.
In contrast, the 5-year pre-pandemic average for January to August output from 2014 – 2019 stands well above this mark at 1,030,527 units.
With car manufacturers tending to pass price rises on to consumers, demand was dampened by surging costs of semiconductors, logistics and raw materials.
The SMMT noted,
The sector is now on course to produce fewer than a million cars for the third consecutive year.
Ian Henry, managing director of AutoAnalysis concurred with the SMMT’s analysis,
It is expected that by the end of this year car production will reach 825,000, compared to 850,000 a year ago, but that’s 35% down on 2019 and a whopping 50% on the high figure of 2017.
Other than the obvious fact that the UK’s economic atmosphere is in hot water, the automotive industry (including component manufacturers) has been struggling to stave off the high energy costs of doing business.
In a survey, 69% of respondents flagged energy costs as a key concern. Estimates suggest that the sector’s collective energy expenditure has gone up by 33% in the last 12 months reaching over £300 million, forcing several operations to become unviable.
Although the government enacted measures to cap the price of energy and ease obstacles to additional production, Mike Hawes, the CEO of SMMT, said,
This is a short-term fix, however, and to avoid a cliff-edge in six months’ time, it must be backed by a full package of measures that will sustain the sector.
Due to the meteoric rise in costs across the automotive supply chain, 13% of respondents were cutting shifts, 9% chose to downsize their workforce and 41% postponed further investments.
Uncertainties around Brexit and the EU trade deal are yet to be resolved.
Moreover, the energy crisis is poised to get even more acute unless Russia withdraws from the conflict, or international leaders ease restrictions on Moscow. Last week, I discussed the evolving energy crisis here.
With global central banks expected to tighten till at least the end of the year, demand is likely to be squeezed further pressurizing British car manufacturers.
Electric vehicles made up 71% of car exports from the UK in August, but robust growth in the sector looks challenging in the near term, in the absence of widespread charging infrastructure, high electricity prices and globally low consumer confidence.
Although energy subsidies could provide some relief in the immediate future, the industry will remain in dire straits while investments stay low and the shortage in human capital persists, particularly amid the push for EVs.
Given the prevailing macroeconomic environment, and severe market backlash to Truss’s mini-budget (which I discussed in an earlier article), the sector is unlikely to turn the corner any time soon.
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