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Key Events This Very Busy Week: Fed, ECB, Apple And April Payrolls

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Fed, ECB, Apple And April Payrolls

The busiest week of Q1 earnings season is now in the history books, and…

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Key Events This Very Busy Week: Fed, ECB, Apple And April Payrolls

The busiest week of Q1 earnings season is now in the history books, and contrary to widespread expectations of collapse several blowout earnings reports by the megacaps helped push spoos to 4,200. And while earnings season slows down a bit this week (Apple is the last GAMMA stock set to report on Thursday), we have a sharp pick up in economic data with the ISM manufacturing report today (it beat expectations modestly but was still in contraction), the May FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed is expected to hike another 25bps to 5.25%, the highest rate since 2007, the ECB decision on Thursday where most expect a 25bps hike in the deposit rate to 3.25%, but there is some chance that a 50bps hike could happen, before finally we get the April payrolls report on Friday which may surprise many with a sharp dip to the downside.

Courtesy of Rabobank and Bank of America, here are the key events this week:

  • Monday: We get the April ISM manufacturing survey. Markets will be looking for confirmation of a slowdown in manufacturing activity that was presaged by the Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed data released last week.
  • Tuesday: House price data will be released for New Zealand and the UK. UK prices are seen declining 3.7% in the year to April. No estimate is published for NZ, but the prior month recorded a y-o-y fall of 10.5%, and that was before the RBNZ’s surprise 50bps rate hike.
    • In Australia the RBA meets to set monetary policy for the first time since pausing in April. The market is 100% priced for no-change to the cash rate, a view that we share here at Rabo. Governor Phil Lowe will be giving a press conference in the evening following the rates decision.
    • In Europe we will get the preliminary read for April Eurozone CPI. Here a headline figure of 7% y-o-y is expected, while the core figure is seen softening by 1 tick to 5.6%. US factory orders for the month of March will be released later in the day.
    • In the US, we will get the April auto sales which BofA expects to pick up to 15.1mn saar from 14.8mn in March. Unadjusted sales should be down 6% on a m/m basis. Sales at this level would imply solid y/y growth, although they would still be below trend. The BofA auto analysts note that industry commentary suggests that demand remains solid. However, they are concerned that regional bank stress could lead to a tightening in lending standards, which would weigh on sales going forward.
  • Wednesday: Aussie retail sales for the month of March will be released during the Asian session, but the main event for the day will be the FOMC rates decision where a final 25bps hike will end the Fed’s tightening cycle.  Note that the Fed will have the results of the 2Q Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) in hand for the May meeting, although the survey results will only be made public in the following week. The Beige Book shows that six of the 12 regional Fed banks reported further credit tightening since the January survey. This suggests that the SLOOS data will reinforce the case for a pause in June. However, there are two employment and CPI reports between the May and June meetings. Therefore, the Fed will not want to completely rule out a June hike, in case the data surprise strongly to the upside
    • The US ISM services index is also due out and expected to have improved slightly from 51.2 to 51.8 in April. The March report was a negative surprise as consensus was looking for the index to come in closer to 54.4. However, the index can be volatile at times and big swings in one direction are typically partially reversed in the following months
  • Thursday: The Caixin China manufacturing PMI will be released during the Asian session, but the ECB policy rate decision will be the headliner on the day. As noted above, we expect a 25bps hike in the deposit rate to 3.25%, but there is some chance that a 50bps hike could happen. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference after the release.
    • On Thursday we get the latest initial jobless claims which are expected to increase to 238k in the week ending April 29 after last week’s surprising 16k decrease to 230k. Last week, the 4 week moving average also moved down to 236k from 240k. Continuing claims also edged down 3k in the week ending April 15. That could potentially be payback for the rise in the last few weeks and reflect the still existing labor market tightness.
    • On Thursday we will also get the Q1 nonfarm productivity which is expected to fall by 2% q/q saar in 1Q 2023 owing to a relatively soft headline GDP growth and strong growth in hours worked during the quarter. BofA's forecast would imply productivity declined by 0.8% on a y/y basis, which would be its fifth consecutive decline. Meanwhile, we look for unit labor costs to rise by 5.8% q/q saar or 5.6% y/y.
  • Friday: The RBA Statement on Monetary policy will be released. This will include updates to the forecasts released back in February.
    • Rounding out the week we will see March German factory orders and April employment data for the US and Canada. US non-farm payrolls are expected to have added 180,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate moving one tick higher to 3.6%. In Canada 20,000 new jobs are expected and the rate also up 1 tick to 5.1%.

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing report on Monday and the employment situation report on Friday. The May FOMC meeting is this week, with the release of the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. There are a few speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.

Monday, May 1

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 50.4, last 50.4)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.1%)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 47.3, consensus 46.8, last 46.3): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 1pt to 47.3 in April, as rebounding global industrial activity more than offset a sentiment drag from US banking stress. Our GS manufacturing tracker rebounded by 0.6pt to 48.2.

Tuesday, May 2

  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.3%, last -0.7%); Durable goods orders, March final (last +3.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March final (last +0.3%); Core capital goods orders, March final (last -0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, March final (last -0.4%): We estimate that factory orders increased 1.1% in March following a 0.7% decrease in February. Durable goods orders increased by 3.2% in the March advance report, and core capital goods orders decreased by 0.4%.
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 9,500k, consensus 9,690k, last 9,931k); We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 9,500k in March.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 15.4mn, consensus 15.0mn, last 14.8mn)

Wednesday, May 3

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, April (GS +150k, consensus +150k, last +145k): We estimate a 150k rise in ADP payroll employment in April, reflecting mixed Big Data indicators and the persistent underperformance of ADP relative to nonfarm payrolls in recent months.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, April final (consensus 53.7, last 53.7)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, April (GS 51.8, consensus 51.8, last 51.2): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded by 0.6pt to 51.8 in April, reflecting a waning sentiment drag from banking stresses. Our survey tracker declined 0.5pt to 50.2.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, May 3-4 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to deliver a widely-expected 25bp hike at its May meeting. We also expect the Committee to signal that it anticipates pausing in June but retains a hawkish bias, stopping earlier than it initially envisioned because bank stress is likely to cause a tightening of credit.

Thursday, May 4

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 29 (GS 235k, consensus 240k, last 230k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 22 (consensus 1,873k, last 1,858k); We estimate that initial jobless claims edged up to 235k in the week ended April 29.
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 preliminary (GS -1.9%, consensus -1.8%, last +1.7%); Unit labor costs, Q1 preliminary (GS +5.6%, consensus +5.4%, last +2.3%): We estimate nonfarm productivity growth of -1.9% in Q1 (qoq saar) and unit labor cost—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—growth of +5.6%.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, March (GS -$65.0bn, consensus -$63.5bn, last -$70.5bn): We estimate that the trade deficit narrowed by $5.5bn to $65.0bn in March.

Friday, May 5

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +225k, consensus +180k, last +236k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +200k, consensus +157k, last +189k); Average hourly earnings (mom), April (GS +0.35%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), April (GS +4.25%, consensus +4.2%, last +4.2%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 3.5%, consensus 3.6%, last 3.5%); Labor force participation rate, April (GS 62.6%, consensus 62.6%, last 62.6%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in April (mom sa). We believe high but falling labor demand more than offset layoffs in the information and financial sectors and a modest hiring drag from reduced credit availability. The April seasonal factors have also evolved favorably relative to the pre-pandemic period and represent a tailwind worth 50-100k, in our view. Big Data employment indicators were mixed in the month but are generally consistent with solid or strong job growth. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%). We estimate a 0.35% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that boosts the year-on-year rate slightly to 4.25%, reflecting waning upward wage pressures and positive calendar effects.
  • 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak at the Economic Club of Minneapolis. Audience and media Q&A are expected. On April 18th, President Bullard argued that the FOMC should be “responsive to the incoming data through the summer into the fall,” and warned the Committee against “giving forward guidance that said we’re definitely not doing anything and then have inflation coming in too hot or too sticky.” On March 24th, after the FOMC’s March meeting, President Bullard noted that he had revised his terminal rate projection to 5.625% in the March SEP “in reaction to the stronger economic news and also on the assumption that the financial stress abates in the weeks and months ahead."
  • 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a commencement address at Michigan State University. Text is expected. On April 21st, Governor Cook argued that “if tighter financing conditions are a significant headwind on the economy, the appropriate path of the federal funds rate may be lower than it would be in their absence. But if data show continued strength in the economy and slower disinflation, we may have more work to do.” Earlier, on March 31st, Governor Cook had noted that “inflation in [nonhousing services] looks quite persistent amid strong post-pandemic demand for travel, dining out, and medical care.”

Source: BofA, Goldman, Rabobank

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/01/2023 - 12:25

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Government

Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr…

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September 24, 2023

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Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy - who commands a battalion of neo-Nazis - honored an actual WWII Nazi with a standing ovation on Friday.

Yaroslav Hunka, 98, fought in a Third Reich military formation accused of war crimes.

On Friday, he was honored during a session of Canadian parliament in which Zelenskyy addressed the lawmakers to thank them for their support since Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that Canada has always been on "the bright side of history."

Hunka stood for standing ovation and saluted, according to Canadian television.

According to the Associated Press, Hunka "fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada," another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the Nazi party's military wing, also known as the SS Galichina.

Related:

Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was comprised of Ukrainians from the Galicia region in the western part of the country. It was armed and trained by Hitler's Nazis and commanded by German officers. The next year, the division received a visit from SS head Heinrich Himmler, who had high praise for the unit's effectiveness at slaughtering Poles.

The SS Galichina subunits were responsible for the Huta Pieniacka massacre, in which they burned 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive.

One of several photos on a blog by an SS Galichina veterans’ group that shows Yaroslav Hunka, the Ukrainian immigrant honored by the Canadian Parliament during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hunka is in the front row, middle.

In fact, during the Nuremberg Trials, the Waffen-SS was declared to be a criminal organization responsible for mass atrocities.

Following the war, thousands of SS Galichina veterans were allowed to leave Germany and resettle in the West - with around 2,000 moving to Canada. By that time, they were known as the First Ukrainian Division.

A blog by an association of its veterans, called “Combatant News” in Ukrainian, includes an autobiographical entry by a Yaroslav Hunka that says he volunteered to join the division in 1943 and several photographs of him during the war. The captions say the pictures show Hunka during SS artillery training in Munich in December 1943 and in Neuhammer (now Świętoszów), Poland, the site of Himmler’s visit. 

In posts to the blog dated 2011 and 2010, Hunka describes 1941 to 1943 as the happiest years of his life and compares the veterans of his unit, who were scattered across the world, to Jews. -Forward

So, the same leftists who called Trump supporters Nazis for years are now honoring an actual Nazi - while Germany has notably locked up several concentration camp guards in their 90s for their involvement in Nazi activities.

University of Ottawa Political Scientist Ivan Katchanovski lays it out...

Meanwhile, here's Ukraine's Azov Battalion of neo-Nazis that everyone with a Ukraine flag in their bio is supporting...

Odd, they don't look like Trump supporters.

Maybe these Nazis can shed some light? Careful, "X" thinks this is sensitive material (that might redpill people?).

Meanwhile...

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 14:25

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Government

Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

While…

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September 24, 2023

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Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

While addressing an Atlantic Council meeting on nuclear energy, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry made it clear he doesn't think wind and solar alone will be sufficient to meet global energy needs while achieving policy plans to rapidly scale back the use of hydrocarbons in the name of addressing climate change risks as outlined by the United Nations.

"You will have to have some component of nuclear—yet to be determined how big or where it'll go. That's going to be a market-based reaction," said Mr. Kerry, who served as a Democratic senator from Massachusetts before serving as Secretary of State under former President Barack Obama.

The 2004 Democratic candidate for president said that "most scientists will tell you" the goal of Net Zero 2050 cannot be achieved "unless we have a pot, a mixture of energy approaches."

"Clearly, we're going to need nuclear to be a part of that," he said on Monday.

Mr. Kerry's pro-nuclear remarks come as climate-related diplomacy and other climate-themed events overtake New York City.

Over the weekend, protesters demonstrated against fossil fuels in the streets of New York City, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) among the participants.

Mr. Kerry voiced support for those demonstrators in his speech to the Atlantic Council.

In addition, the U.N. will hold its inaugural Climate Ambition Summit on Sept. 20.

A U.N. statement on the event states it "will showcase leaders who are 'first movers and doers' from government, business, finance, local authorities, and civil society who have credible actions, policies and plans to keep the 1.5°C degree goal of the Paris Agreement alive and deliver climate justice to those on the front lines of the climate crisis."

The Climate Ambition Summit comes ahead of the next annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will begin in late November. It's taking place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Even as he praised climate protesters, Mr. Kerry noted that a previous generation of environmental activists had fought hard against nuclear power, now seen as a pragmatic solution by many climate hawks.

"In my state of Massachusetts, where there was a huge fight over Seabrook Nuclear Plant in New Hampshire, we now happily get about 20 percent of all our energy from Seabrook, and nobody's complaining—maybe about the prices a little bit, because that's normal in today's world," he said.

A view of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant in Seabrook, N.H., on March 21, 2011. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images)

"The United States is now therefore committed, based on experience and based on reality, to trying to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy, as part of the Biden program," he added.

The diplomat, who came under fire from Republicans earlier this summer for his unwillingness to share details of his staff at a Congressional hearing, commented positively on Bill Gates' TerraPower, which plans to build the next-generation Natrium nuclear reactor in Wyoming.

He also drew attention to his recent trip to Romania, where he visited a control room simulator for a small modular reactor developed by the American firm NuScale.

Mr. Kerry took issue with the continued construction of unabated coal-fired power plants and with the existence of subsidies for fossil fuels.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) study identified $1.3 trillion in "explicit" subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022, a stark increase from $500 billion in 2020. Such subsidies are ascribed to fossil fuel prices when they are lower than they would otherwise be if producers fully bore supply costs. The IMF authors attributed a substantial proportion of the increase to "temporary price support measures," in line with surging fossil fuel prices during that period.

Whitehouse Touts ADVANCE Act

Mr. Kerry wasn't the only high-level Democratic politician who addressed the Atlanticist forum on Monday.

In pre-recorded remarks, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) touted the bipartisan, nuclear power-related ADVANCE Act, which passed the Senate as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in July. The bill has not moved ahead in the House.

"Our legislation would strengthen the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's ability to safely and efficiently review the expected influx of applications and prepare them to license HALEU [high-assay low-enriched uranium] fuels," the lawmaker said.

Russia currently dominates the production of HALEU fuels, which are key for most next-generation nuclear reactors. Uncertainty about Russian supplies of HALEU has been a worry for TerraPower and a central motivation for the Nuclear Fuel Security Act, another successful NDAA amendment.

"We spend nearly $1 billion each year on Russian uranium. Russia uses these revenues to fund its invasion of Ukraine," Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in the Senate as the measure was under consideration.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) in Washington on Dec. 1, 2020. (Bill O'Leary-Pool/Getty Images)

'Decarbonize Beyond Electricity'

Other speakers at the event expanded on how nuclear energy could be used to cut carbon emissions.

"We need to decarbonize beyond electricity," said John Wagner, director of the Idaho National Laboratory. He cited industrial heating and hydrogen production as examples of such applications for nuclear energy.

Sama Bilbao y León, director general of the World Nuclear Association, concurred.

"Yes, we need to electrify as much as we can of our economy, but it is not going to be possible to electrify everything," she said.

Ben Pickett of Nucor Corporation, which operates mills that recycle scrap steel using electric arc furnaces, explained that his company's operations require "billions and billions of kilowatt hours per year."

Earlier this year, Nucor signed a memorandum of understanding with NuScale Power. The latter could potentially develop small modular reactors for use in conjunction with Nucor's steel production facilities.

"We've got customers now that are demanding much cleaner steels," Mr. Pickett said.

He conceded that the idea of running steel production on advanced nuclear has met with a "mixed" reaction in his industry.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 15:00

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Government

Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help ‘Rebuild Schools’

Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help ‘Rebuild Schools’

Authored by Chris Menahan via Information…

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September 24, 2023

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Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help 'Rebuild Schools'

Authored by Chris Menahan via Information Liberation (emphasis ours),

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is recruiting spirit cooker Marina Abramovic to serve as an ambassador for Ukraine and help "rebuild schools."

From The Telegraph, "Zelensky asks Marina Abramovic to be ambassador for Ukraine":

Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Marina Abramovic, the performance artist, to be an ambassador for Ukraine.

‌Ms Abramovic, a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin's illegal invasion, said the Ukrainian president had asked for her help in rebuilding schools.

[...] ‌"I have been invited by Zelensky to be an ambassador of Ukraine, to help the children affected by rebuilding schools and such."

‌She added: "I have also been invited to be a board member of the Babyn Yar organisation to continue to protect the memorial."

‌The Holocaust memorial centre to Jews murdered by Nazis in Ukraine was damaged by Russian missile attacks in March last year.

The "bombing" of the Babyn Yar memorial was confirmed to be a lie last year.

‌Ms Abramovic installed her work Crystal Wall of Crying at the memorial centre in Kyiv four months before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

‌The wall, 40 metres long and three metres high, is made of coal and has large quartz crystals sticking out of it. Visitors can touch the installation, which mirrors the western wall in Jerusalem.

Zelensky said last year his goal is to turn Ukraine into a "Greater Israel."

In Dec 2022, Zelensky made a deal with BlackRock's Larry Fink to help "rebuild" Ukraine after the war and just last week the Biden regime announced Penny Pritzker would become their Special Representative for "rebuilding" Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Abramovic's pals, the Clintons, are also salivating over helping to 'rebuild' Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 16:10

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