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Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: A Wednesday Data Dump For The Ages

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: A Wednesday Data Dump For The Ages

This week will be heavily compressed given Thanksgiving on Thursday. The highlight though will be the just announced White House decision to nominate Powell for a…

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Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: A Wednesday Data Dump For The Ages

This week will be heavily compressed given Thanksgiving on Thursday. The highlight though will be the just announced White House decision to nominate Powell for a second term as Fed Chair with Lael Brainard set to become Fed vice chair (suggesting Rich Clarida is out). Overnight it’s been announced that Biden will give a speech to the American people tomorrow on the economy and prices. Biden will likely discuss hiw decision here and perhaps plans to release oil from the strategic reserve.

Following that, DB's Jim Reid notes that Wednesday is especially busy as a pre-holiday US data dump descends upon us. We’ll see the minutes of the November 3rd FOMC meeting and earlier that day the core PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation metric), Durable Goods, the UoM sentiment index (including latest inflation expectations), new home sales and jobless claims amongst a few other releases.

In addition to the abovementioned Fed chair decision, there are also a number of other positions to fill at the Fed in the coming months, with Vice Chair Clarida’s term as an FOMC governor expiring in January, Randal Quarles set to leave the Board by the end of this year, and another vacant post still unfilled. So a significant opportunity for the Biden administration to reshape the top positions at the Fed.

More internationally, covid will be focus, especially in Europe as Austria enters lockdown today after the shock announcement on Friday. Germany is probably the swing factor here for sentiment in Europe so case numbers will be watched closely. Staying with Germany, there’s anticipation that a coalition agreement could be reached in Germany between the SPD, Greens and the FDP, almost two months after their federal election. Otherwise, the flash PMIs for November will be in focus, with the ECB following the Fed and releasing the minutes from their recent meeting on Thursday.

That said, the Fed chair decision is unlikely to have a material impact on the broad policy trajectory. Inflation in 2022 is likely to remain at levels that make most Fed officials uncomfortable, whilst the regional Fed presidents rotating as voters lean more hawkish next year, so there’ll be constraints to how policy could shift in a dovish direction, even if an incoming chair wanted to move things that way.

Another unconfirmed but much anticipated announcement this week could come from Germany, where there’s hope that the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP will finally reach a coalition agreement. The general secretaries of all three parties have recently said that they hope next week will be when a deal is reached, and a deal would pave the way for the SPD’s Olaf Scholz to become chancellor at the head of a 3-party coalition. Nevertheless, there are still some hurdles to clear before then, since an agreement would mark the start of internal party approval processes. The FDP and the SPD are set to hold a party convention, whilst the Greens have announced that their members will vote on the agreement.

On the virus, there is no doubt things are getting worse in Europe but it’s worth putting some of the vaccine numbers in some context. Austria (64% of total population) has a double vaccination rate that is somewhat lower than the likes of Spain (79%), Italy (74%), France (69%), the UK (69%) and Germany (68%). The UK for all its pandemic fighting faults is probably as well placed as any due to it being more advanced on the booster campaign due to an earlier vaccine start date and also due to higher natural infections. It was also a conscious decision back in the summer in the UK to flatten the peak to take load off the winter wave. Europe is a bit behind on boosters versus the UK but perhaps these will accelerate as more people get 6 months from their second jab, albeit a bit too late to stop some kind of winter wave.

There may also be notable divergence within Europe. Countries like Italy and Spain (and to a slightly lesser extent France) that were hit hard in the initial waves have a high vaccination rate so it seems less likely they will suffer the dramatic escalation that Austria has seen. Germany is in the balance as they have had lower infection rates which unfortunately may have encouraged slightly lower vaccination rates. The irony here is that there is some correlation between early success/lower infections and lower subsequent vaccination rates. The opposite is also true - i.e. early bad outcomes but high vaccination rates. The US is another contradiction as it’s vaccination rate of 58% is very low in the developed world but it has had high levels of natural infections and has a higher intolerance for lockdowns. So tough to model all the above.

Elsewhere, in light of the rising caseloads, the November flash PMIs should provide some context for how the global economy has performed into the month. We’ve already seen a deceleration in the composite PMIs for the Euro Area since the summer, so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s maintained. If anything the US data has reaccelerated in Q4 with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow series at 8.2% for the quarter after what will likely be a revised 2.2% print on Wednesday for Q3. Time will tell if Covid temporarily dampens this again. Elsewhere datawise, we’ll also get the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator for Germany on Wednesday, which has experienced a similar deceleration to other European data since the summer. The rest of the week ahead appears as usual in the day-by-day calendar at the end.

Courtesy of DB here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 22

  • Data: US October Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, Euro Area advance November consumer confidence, Australia flash November manufacturing, services and composite PMIs (22:00UK time)
  • Central Banks: ECB’s Holzmann, Kazaks and Kazimir speak

Tuesday November 23

  • Data: Flash November manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US, US November Richmond Fed manufacturing index
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Haskel speaks
  • Other: President Biden to speak on economy and prices

Wednesday November 24

  • Data: Japan flash November manufacturing, services and composite PMIs, Germany November Ifo business climate indicator, US weekly initial jobless claims, preliminary October wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, core capital goods orders, October personal income, personal spending, new home sales, final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, second estimate Q3 GDP
  • Central Banks: FOMC release meeting minutes, BoE’s Tenreyro speaks

Thursday November 25

  • Central Banks: Bank of Korea monetary policy decision, ECB release meeting minutes, ECB President Lagarde, ECB’s Villeroy, and Elderson, BoE Governor Bailey and BoE’s Haskel speak
  • Other: US markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday

Friday November 26

  • Data: France November consumer confidence, Euro Area October M3 money supply, Italy November consumer confidence index
  • Central Banks: ECB President Lagarde, ECB’s Schnabel, Panetta and Lane, and BoE’s Pill speak

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the second Q3 GDP release, the October durable goods report, and the October core PCE report, all on Wednesday morning. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are no speaking engagements from Fed officials this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Monday, November 22

  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, October (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.8%, last +7.0%); We estimate that existing home sales declined by 2.0% in October after increasing by 7.0% in September. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.

Tuesday, November 23

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, November preliminary (consensus 59.1, last 58.4); Markit Flash US services PMI, November preliminary (consensus 59.0, last 58.7)
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus 11, last 10)

Wednesday, November 24

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 20 (GS 245k, consensus 261k, last 268k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 13 (consensus 2,052k, last 2,080k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 245k in the week ended November 20.
  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, October (GS -$98.5bn, consensus -$95.0bn, last -$96.3bn); We estimate that the goods trade deficit increased by $3.6bn to $98.5bn in October compared to the final September report, reflecting an increase in imports.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, November preliminary (consensus +1.1%., last -0.2%): Retail inventories, November (consensus +0.2%, last +1.4%)
  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q3 second (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.0%): Personal consumption, Q3 second (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.6%): We estimate a five-tenths upward revision to Q3 GDP growth to +2.5% (qoq ar). Our forecast reflects the upward revisions to inventory data since the advance Q3 reading, as well as firmer-than-expected services consumption details in Friday’s Census QSS survey.
  • 8:30 AM Durable goods orders, October preliminary (GS -0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, October preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, October preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.4%); We estimate durable goods declined 0.5% in the preliminary October report, reflecting a pullback in commercial aircraft and defense orders. However, we estimate firm gains in core capital goods orders (+1.0%) and core capital goods shipments (+0.7%), reflecting strong goods demand and higher prices.
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, October (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Personal spending, October (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.6%); PCE price index, October (GS +0.59%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.32%): Core PCE price index, October (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.21%) PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +4.95%, consensus +5.1%, last +4.38%); Core PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +4.02%, consensus +4.1%, last +3.64%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.37% month-over-month in October, corresponding to a 4.02% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.59% in October, corresponding to a 4.95% increase from a year earlier. We expect that personal income was flat and personal spending increased by 0.2% In October.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November Final (GS 67.1, consensus 66.8, last 66.8); We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased by 0.3pt to 67.1 in the final November reading.
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, October (GS flat, consensus flat, last +14.0%); We estimate that new home sales were flat in October, reflecting an increase in housing permits offset by expected mean reversion following last month’s sharp increase in sales.
  • 02:00 PM Minutes from the November 2-3 FOMC meeting; The FOMC announced the start of tapering at its November meeting today at a $15bn per month pace. The FOMC statement noted that the Committee is “prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted,” but language like this that expresses flexibility is routine, and we think the hurdle to accelerating the pace is high.

Thursday, November 25

  • Thanksgiving holiday. NYSE closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also close.

Friday, November 26

  • NYSE will close early at 1:00 PM. SIFMA recommends an early 2:00 PM close to bond markets.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/22/2021 - 09:32

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Spread & Containment

TV Show Mysteriously Deletes Poll After Vast Majority Oppose Mandatory Vaccination

TV Show Mysteriously Deletes Poll After Vast Majority Oppose Mandatory Vaccination

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A major morning television show in the UK deleted a Twitter poll asking if vaccines should be made mandatory..

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TV Show Mysteriously Deletes Poll After Vast Majority Oppose Mandatory Vaccination

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A major morning television show in the UK deleted a Twitter poll asking if vaccines should be made mandatory after the results showed that 89% of respondents oppose compulsory shots.

Yes, really.

Good Morning Britain, which often tries to set the news agenda, posted the poll which asked the public, “With Omicron cases doubling every two days, is it time to make vaccines mandatory?”

The last screenshots Twitter users were able to obtain before the poll was wiped showed 89% oppose mandatory vaccinations, with just 11% in favor after a total of over 42,000 votes.

People demanded to know why the poll had been pulled, although it wasn’t exactly hard to guess.

Why did you delete this poll, is it because you were asked? Or because it shows the people don’t support this s**t, this tyrannical future your colleagues seem to want. We see you,” commented one respondent.

“Guess that wasn’t the answer they were looking for,” remarked another.

Good Morning Britain has failed to explain why it removed the poll.

However, it’s unsurprising given that the broadcast has been a vehicle for pushing pro-lockdown messaging since the start of the pandemic.

For most of that time, it was hosted by Piers Morgan, an aggressive proponent of lockdowns, mandatory vaccines and face masks.

The show also regularly features Dr. Hillary Jones, someone who at the start of the pandemic warned that face masks could make the spread of the virus worse, before getting the memo and doing a complete 180.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 12/09/2021 - 03:30

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Science

Life Sciences Expansions Take Off as 2021 Wraps Up

Several life sciences companies and life science-focused real estate firms announced expansion plans as 2021 comes to an end.

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Life Sciences Expansions Take Off as 2021 Wraps Up

Several life sciences companies and life science-focused real estate firms have announced expansion plans as 2021 comes to an end. Here’s a look.

Novavax to Expand Maryland Campus

Novavax, on the cusp of getting its COVID-19 vaccine authorized in numerous countries around the world, is expanding its footprint in Gaithersburg, Md., where it is headquartered. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is expected to authorize the company’s vaccine soon, and so is the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Czechia has already ordered 370,000 doses, with deliveries expected at the beginning of 2022. The company also has a deal with Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies to manufacture millions of doses of the Novavax vaccines at its facilities in Billingham, U.K., with a £400 million investment in expansion.

Four Corners Acquired 150,000-Square-Foot Complex in Belmont, Calif.

Four Corners Properties acquired a 150,000-square-foot office building in Belmont, Calif., called the Shoreway Innovation Center. The seller was Westlake Group. Westlake bought it in 2016 for $61 million. The company plans to expand its use for life sciences, noting that 82% of it is currently leased to a mix of tenants with an average of less than three years lease term remaining.

“Shoreway Innovation Center offers the opportunity to bring office and life sciences space to a market where tenant demand is far outpacing available supply,” said Mike Taquino, executive vice president of CBRE’s Northern California Capital Markets team.

Genentech Leases Building Under Construction in South San Francisco

Source: BioSpace

Boston Properties and Alexandria Real Estate Equities are leasing a building under construction in South San Francisco to Genentech. It will be the first phase of a life sciences campus. The building is at 751 Gateway and is 229,000 square feet. The campus will be called Gateway Commons and is a joint venture between the two real estate firms. They expect initial occupancy toward the end of 2024. Genentech has been headquartered in South San Francisco for forty years, with a large corporate headquarters made up of 4.7 million square feet of five neighborhood hubs. The new site is about one mile’s distance from their main campus.

Mispro Biotech to Open New Facility in North Carolina in Early 2022

Mispro Biotech Services plans to open a new facility in Research Triangle Park (RTP), N.C., in early 2022. Mispro is a leading contract vivarium organization (CVO). The new facility, a full-service vivarium research facility, will be central to one of RTP’s biopark campuses.

“Since we first opened our doors here in 2013, we have seen incredible growth in the RTP cluster,” said Philippe Lamarre, chief executive officer of Mispro. “The time was right to expand into a new facility with more space and modern amenities where we can support the influx of biotechs who are seeking in vivo lab space.”

Laura Gunter, president of NCBIO, representing the life sciences industry in North Carolina, noted, “Mispro has become a cornerstone of the Triangle ecosystem as contract research and support companies are finding increased favor. Biotechs of all sizes and therapeutic disciplines are focusing more on their core competencies, which is opening the door to innovation like Mispro’s contract vivarium option. We are pleased to see their decision to expand here and support more North Carolina companies.”

BioSpace source:

https://www.biospace.com/article/life-science-companies-announce-expansion-plans-as-they-wrap-up-2021

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Government

Over 170 companies delisted from major U.S. stock exchanges in 12 months

  Over the years, United States-based exchanges have remained an attractive destination for most companies aiming to go public. With businesses jostling to join the trading platforms, the exchanges have also delisted a significant number of companies….

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Over the years, United States-based exchanges have remained an attractive destination for most companies aiming to go public. With businesses jostling to join the trading platforms, the exchanges have also delisted a significant number of companies.

According to data acquired by Finbold, a total of 179 companies have been delisted from the major United States exchanges between 2020 and 2021. In 2021, the number of companies on Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stands at 6,000, dropping 2.89% from last year’s figure of 6,179. In 2019, the listed companies stood at 5,454.

NYSE recorded the highest delisting with companies on the platform, dropping 15.28% year-over-year from 2,873 to 2,434. Elsewhere, Nasdaq listed companies grew 7.86% from 3,306 to 3,566. Data on the number of listed companies on NASDAQ and NYSE is provided by The World Federation of Exchanges.

The delisting of the companies is potentially guided by basic factors such as violating listing regulations and failing to meet minimum financial standards like the inability to maintain a minimum share price, financial ratios, and sales levels. Additionally, some companies might opt for voluntary delisting motivated by the desire to trade on other exchanges.

Furthermore, the delisting on U.S. major exchanges might be due to the emergence of new alternative markets, especially in Asia. China and Hong Kong markets have become more appealing, with regulators making local listings more attractive. Over the years, exchanges in the region have strived to emerge as key players amid dominance by U.S. equity markets. As per a previous report, the U.S. controls 56% of the global stock market value.

A significant portion of the delisted companies also stems from the regulatory perspective pitting U.S. agencies and their Chinese counterparts. For instance, China Mobile Ltd, China Unicom, and China Telecom Corp announced their delisting from NYSE, citing investment restrictions dating from 2020.

Worth noting is that the delisting of firms was initiated due to strict measures put in place by the Trump administration. The current administration has left the regulations in place while proposing additional regulations. For instance, a recent regulation update by the Securities Exchange Commission requiring US-listed Chinese companies to disclose their ownership structure has led to the exit of cab-hailing company Didi from the NYSE.

Impact of pandemic on the listing of companies

The delisting also comes in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic that resulted in economic turmoil. With the shutdown of the economy, most companies entered into bankruptcies as the stock market crashed to historical lows.

Lower stock prices translate to less wealth for businesses, pension funds, and individual investors, and listed companies could not get the much-needed funding for their normal operations.

At the same time, the focus on more companies going public over the last year can be highlighted by firms on the Nasdaq exchange. Worth noting is that in 2020, there was tremendous growth in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), mainly driven by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. With the uncertainty of raising money through the traditional means, SPACs found a perfect role to inject more funds into capital-starving companies to go public.

From the data, foreign companies listing in the United States have grown steadily, with the business aiming to leverage the benefits of operating in the country. Notably, listing on U.S. exchanges guarantees companies liquidity and high potential to raise capital. Furthermore, listing on either NYSE or Nasdaq comes with the needed credibility to attract more investors. The companies are generally viewed as a home for established, respected, and successful global companies.

In general, over the past year, factors like the pandemic have altered the face of stock exchanges to some point threatening the continued dominance of major U.S. exchanges. Tensions between the US and China are contributing to the crisis which will eventually impact the number of listed companies.

 

Courtesy of Finbold.

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