Connect with us

Government

Key Events This Busy Week: Biden, Central Banks, PMIs And Earnings

Key Events This Busy Week: Biden, Central Banks, PMIs And Earnings

With the US closed for MLK day, it will be a quiet start to the week. After the lull today, the week ahead is a busy one with Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday an obvious…

Published

on

Key Events This Busy Week: Biden, Central Banks, PMIs And Earnings

With the US closed for MLK day, it will be a quiet start to the week. After the lull today, the week ahead is a busy one with Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday an obvious focal point. Outside of that, DB's Jim Reid writes that we have an array of central bank decisions to expect, including from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (both Thursday), while data highlight will be the flash PMIs for January. In addition, earnings season will begin to ramp up, with 43 S&P 500 companies reporting this week before the heavy couple of weeks after that.

Looking more into the week ahead now, with regards to Joe Biden, the clock will start on his first 100 days in office post the inauguration. He has already announced that he is aiming for 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office, as well as an economic package that includes topping up the recently passed $600 checks to individuals up to $2,000. In February, he is then expected to outline his “Build Back Better Recovery Plan” before a Joint Session of Congress, where he’ll push for investments in infrastructure, R&D and clean energy.

Staying on the political scene, the German CDU have elected Armin Laschet as the new party leader over the weekend and someone who was the closest politically to Chancellor Merkel. However, it’s far from a given that the new leader will necessarily be the chancellor candidate of the CDU/CSU in September’s federal election, with the CSU’s Markus Söder strongly tipped for that role which is expected to be decided upon in April. So from that respect there’s too much water to flow under the bridge before September for this to be a big market moving event at the moment.

This week sees an array of central bank decisions, with 7 of the G20 central banks deciding on rates. In terms of the highlights, the consensus is not expecting the ECB to make any changes in rates on Thursday following their easing package in December, and President Lagarde warned earlier this week against tightening simply on the back of inflation rising thanks to pent-up demand. Meanwhile, the BoJ will maintain their policy stance, but they’re likely to downgrade their economic outlook in light of the state of emergency declaration. The other monetary policy decisions to watch out will be from Canada and Brazil on Wednesday, and then Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia on Thursday.

As also discussed above, earnings season ramps up as 43 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. The highlights will be Bank of America, Netflix, Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs tomorrow, then on Wednesday, releases will come from Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth Group, ASML Holding, Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon. Finally on Thursday, we’ll hear from Intel, Union Pacific and IBM.

In Europe we have 30 reporting in the Stoxx 600 as the season slowly gets into gear. The median beat over the last 15 years is 3.4pp. The last two quarters have been 20pp and 17pp above consensus.

On the data side, the main highlight next week will be the release of the flash PMIs on Friday, which will be one of the first indications of how the global economy has fared into 2021. However, with the pandemic continuing to spread in numerous regions and fresh restrictions having been imposed, the consensus estimates are generally pointing to lower readings in January compared with December. Over the last couple of months of fresh lockdowns, growth had generally held up better than expected as more activity seems to be permissible relative to last spring. However it’s fair to say that these restrictions are likely to last longer than economists expected so calibrating what that means for revisions is tough. Probably less bad but for longer is the message.

Day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of Deutsche Bank

Monday January 18

  • Data: China Q4 GDP, December industrial production, retail sales. All now out.
  • Central Banks: Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks
  • Other: US equity and bond markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Tuesday January 19

  • Data: Germany January ZEW survey, US November foreign net transactions
  • Central Banks: Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane speaks
  • Politics: Janet Yellen has confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary at Senate Banking Committee
  • Earnings: Bank of America, Netflix, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs

Wednesday January 20

  • Data: UK December CPI, Euro Area final December CPI, Canada December CPI, US January NAHB housing market index, Japan December trade balance (23:50 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and Central Bank of Brazil, BoE Governor Bailey speaks
  • Politics: Inauguration of Joe Biden as US President
  • Earnings: Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth Group, ASML Holding, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon

Thursday January 21

  • Data: France January business confidence, Italy November industrial orders, industrial sales, US weekly initial jobless claims, December housing starts, building permits, January Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Euro Area advance January consumer confidence, preliminary January manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from Australia (22:00 UK time), Japan December nationwide CPI (23:30 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Central Bank of Turkey, Bank Indonesia and the South African Reserve Bank
  • Earnings: Intel, Union Pacific, IBM

Friday January 22

  • Data: Preliminary January manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US, UK January GfK consumer confidence, December retail sales, public sector net borrowing, Canada November retail sales, US December existing home sales

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and jobless claims reports, both on Thursday. There are no major speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.

Monday, January 18

  • Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also closed.

Tuesday, January 19

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Wednesday, January 20

  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, January (consensus 86, last 86)
  • 12:00 PM Presidential inauguration

Thursday, January 21

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, January (GS 10.0, consensus 11.3, last 9.1): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rebounded marginally in January to 10.0 from a downwardly revised 9.1. Our forecast reflects the decline in the Empire Fed measure but continued resilience in the industrial sector more broadly.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 16 (GS 935k, consensus 923k, last 965k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 9 (consensus 5,250k, last 5,271k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 935k in the week ended January 16.
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, December (GS +1.2%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.2%): Building permits, December (consensus -2.0%, last +6.2%): We estimate housing starts increased by 1.2% in December. Our forecast incorporates higher permits and stronger construction job growth, but a potential virus drag.

Friday, January 22

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, January preliminary (consensus 56.5, last 57.1)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, January preliminary (consensus 53.4, last 54.8)
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, December (GS -2.0%, consensus -2.1%, last -2.5%): We estimate that existing home sales declined by 2.0% in December after declining by 2.5% in November. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/18/2021 - 09:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

Published

on

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

Published

on

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

on

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending