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Key Events In The Coming Week: Payrolls, PMIs And (Lack Of) Profits

Key Events In The Coming Week: Payrolls, PMIs And (Lack Of) Profits

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Key Events In The Coming Week: Payrolls, PMIs And (Lack Of) Profits Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2020 - 09:16

Looking ahead to this week now, the release of PMIs from around the world (today and Wednesday mostly) will set the tone, before the July US jobs report on Friday rounds out the week. On the central bank front, we will hear the monetary policy decision from the Bank of England and Governor Bailey’s ensuing press conference on Thursday. The market also enters the second half of Q2 earnings season, which has already seen a record number of beats in the S&P 500.

Looking at the current week, the data highlights will be Friday's payrolls and various high-frequency economic in the form of survey, with the majority of manufacturing PMIs out on today, before services and composite PMIs come out on Wednesday for the most part. There’ll also be the ISM manufacturing index from the US (today) and non-manufacturing ISM on Wednesday. The key here, according to DB's Jim Reid, will be to see how differentiated PMIs are given that some governments around the world are cautiously easing restrictions with others needing to tighten. For the countries where we already have a flash PMI reading, they generally showed that the recovery has more momentum in Europe than in the US. Many of the flash European levels were the strongest in at least two years, while both manufacturing and services PMIs in the US failed to meet expectations.

As ever caution is required as these are diffusion indices which simply monitor whether activity is better or worse than the previous month. And as the DB strategist notes, remember that the US was never as shutdown as Europe so momentum was always likely to be more in the latter’s favor regardless of the recent rise in cases.

In terms of payrolls on Friday, markets are generally expecting a third straight month of gains, though likely at a slower rate than we saw in June. DB economists are looking for a further +900k gain in the headline, below consensus estimates at +1.578m. This follows last month’s blowout +4.8m increase. The economists also see the unemployment rate falling to 10.5% from 11.1%, in line with the median estimate. This data will give some insight into how the renewed spread of the coronavirus through the US, especially in the South and West have affected the US economy. The rest of the key data can be found in the day by day week ahead guide at the end.

On the central bank front, one highlight will be the Bank of England meeting and Governor Bailey’s ensuing press conference on Thursday. While most economists do not expect any change to the policy rate this meeting, there is a chance for a dovish surprise on the overall commentary and tone. Focus will be on the central bank’s economic projections, the ongoing review of the effective lower bound, and the path of QE.

Elsewhere in central banks, India and Brazil are also releasing their policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The two countries have the highest confirmed coronavirus caseloads outside the US, and are expected to lower interest rates in light of the continued economic impact of the pandemic. Following the FOMC last week and the lifting of the blackout period, we will hear from the Fed's Bullard, Evans, Mester and Kaplan.

Earnings will continue to be in focus, with 133 companies reporting from the S&P 500 and a further 95 from the STOXX 600. Among the releases include HSBC, Heineken, Siemens, Berkshire Hathaway, and Ferrari today. Then tomorrow markets will hear from Bayer, Diageo, Fidelity, BP, Walt Disney and Activision Blizzard. Wednesday will see Deutsche Post, Allianz, Humana, Bayerische Motoren, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, CVS Health, MetLife and Fiserv release earnings. Following that, Thursday includes Merck, AXA, Siemens, adidas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, Becton Dickinson & Co, Zoetis, T-Mobile, Illumina. Finally on Friday, Standard Life Aberdeen, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Ventas. So another busy week.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday

  • Data: Japan final Q1 GDP; Japan, China (Caixin), Brazil, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US (Markit) final July manufacturing PMIs; US July ISM manufacturing index, June construction spending and July total vehicle sales
  • Central Banks: Fed's Bullard and Evans speak on economic outlook
  • Earnings: HSBC, Heineken, Siemens Healthineers, Berkshire Hathaway, Global Payments, Ferrari

Tuesday

  • Data: Euro Area June PPI; Canada July manufacturing PMI; US June factory orders, and final durable goods orders; Japan CPI, France June budget balance
  • Earnings: Bayer, Diageo, Fidelity, BP, Walt Disney, Activision Blizzard

Wednesday

  • Data: Japan, China (Caixin), Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US Markit final July services and composite PMIs; US July ISM non-manufacturing index, weekly MBA mortgage applications, June trade balance, and July ADP employment change; UK July new car registrations
  • Central Banks: Brazil Monetary policy decision; Fed's Mester speaks
  • Earnings: Deutsche Post, Allianz, Humana, Bayerische Motoren, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, CVS Health, MetLife, Fiserv

Thursday

  • Data: Germany June factory orders and July construction PMI; Italy June industrial production; UK July construction PMI; US July job cuts, weekly initials jobless claims and continuing claims
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from India and the Bank of England; BoE Governor Bailey speaks; Fed's Kaplan speaks
  • Earnings: Merck, AXA, Siemens, adidas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, Becton Dickinson & Co, Zoetis, American Electric, Booking Holdings, T-Mobile, Illumina

Friday

  • Data: Japan June labour cash earnings, real cash earnings, household spending, and preliminary June leading index; Germany June trade balance, June current account balance and June industrial production; France preliminary Q2 private sector payrolls, June industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance and Q2 wages; Spain June industrial output; US July change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, labour force participation rate, final June wholesale inventories, June consumer credit; China July trade balance, foreign reserves, and Q2 BoP current account balance
  • Central Banks: Reserve Bank of Australia statement on monetary policy
  • Earnings: Standard Life Aberdeen, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ventas

Finally as Goldman notes, focusing just on the US, the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Monday, August 3

  • 09:45 AM Markit US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 51.3, last 51.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 53.6, consensus 53.5, last 52.6); We expect the ISM manufacturing index to increase by 1.0pt to 53.6 in July, after rising by 9.5pt in June. Our manufacturing survey tracker increased from 51.2 to 53.6 in July.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -2.1%); We estimate a 0.7% increase in construction spending in June, with a faster recovery in non-residential than residential construction.
  • 12:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on monetary policy and the economy at a virtual event. Audience and media Q&A are expected.
  • 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event.
  • 02:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will provide a briefing on the economy to reporters on a conference call.

Tuesday, August 4

  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS +6.0%, consensus +5.0%, last +8.0%); Durable goods orders, June final (last +7.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June final (last +3.3%); Core capital goods orders, June final (last +3.3%); Core capital goods shipments, June final (last +3.4%): We estimate factory orders increased by 6.0% in June following an 8.0% rebound in May. Durable goods orders rose by 7.3% in the June advance report.

Wednesday, August 5

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, July (GS +1,600k, consensus +1,200k, last +1,000k); We expect a 1,600k gain in ADP payroll employment, reflecting a boost from lower jobless claims and prior-month payrolls.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$50.0bn, consensus -$50.3bn, last -$54.6bn); We estimate the trade deficit decreased by $4.6bn in June, reflecting a decline in the goods trade deficit.
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, July (GS 54.0, consensus 55.0, last 57.1); Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased by 49.4pt to 51.2 in July, following stronger regional service sector surveys. However, increased virus-related restrictions in some states are likely weigh on responses. We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to decrease by 3.1pt to 54.0 in the July report.
  • 05:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.

Thursday, August 6

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 1 (GS 1,300k, consensus 1,415k, last 1,434k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 25 (consensus 16,940k, last 17,018k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined but remain elevated at 1,300k in the week ended August 1.
  • 10:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will discuss the outlook for monetary policy and the economy at a virtual panel hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

Friday, August 7

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +1,000k, consensus +1,578k, last +4,800k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +800k, consensus +1,326k, last +4,767k); Average hourly earnings (mom), July (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.5%, last -1.2%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), July (GS +4.4%, consensus +4.2%, last +5.0%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 10.7%, consensus 10.5%, last 11.1%): We estimate nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +1.0mn in July after +4.8mn in June. Our forecast reflects an outright decline in employment in the Sunbelt that is more than offset by net gains in the rest of the country. We also believe education seasonality could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500-750k, as many end-of-school-year layoffs took place in April rather than in June/July. Because of difficulty measuring temporary business closures in the establishment survey, we note scope for nonfarm payrolls to outperform the household survey measure of employment in Friday’s report. We expect that household employment rose by slightly less than payrolls and that the labor force participation rate increased as a recovering labor market encouraged job searches, but that the unemployment rate still fell by four tenths to 10.7% in July. We estimate average hourly earnings declined 0.3% month-over-month (but remain up 4.4% year-over-year) as lower-paid workers were rehired and the composition shift toward higher paid workers continued to unwind.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June final (consensus -2.0%, prior -2.0%)

Source: DB, BofA, Goldman

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World Bank: Global Economic Growth Expected To Slow To 2008 Levels

World Bank: Global Economic Growth Expected To Slow To 2008 Levels

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Most people in the mainstream…

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June 7, 2023

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World Bank: Global Economic Growth Expected To Slow To 2008 Levels

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Most people in the mainstream concede that the economy is heading for a recession, but the consensus seems to be that downturn will be short and shallow. Projections by the World Bank undercut that optimism.

According to the World Bank, global growth in 2023 will slow to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

In other words, the World Bank is predicting the beginning of Great Recession 2.0.

You might recall that the Great Recession was neither short nor shallow.

In fact, World Bank Group chief economist and senior vice president Indermit Gill said, “The world economy is in a precarious position.”

According to the World Bank’s new Global Economic Prospects report, global growth is projected to decelerate to 2.1% this year, falling from 3.1% in 2022. The bank forecasts a significant slowdown during the last half of this year.

That would match the global growth rate during the 2008 financial crisis.

According to the World Bank, higher interest rates, inflation, and more restrictive credit conditions will drive the economic downturn.

The report forecasts that growth in advanced economies will slow from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.7% this year and remain weak in 2024.

Emerging market economies will feel significant pain from the economic slowdown. Yahoo Finance reported, “Higher interest rates are a problem for emerging markets, which already were reeling from the overlapping shocks of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They make it harder for those economies to service debt loans denominated in US dollars.”

The World Bank report paints a bleak picture.

The world economy remains hobbled. Besieged by high inflation, tight global financial markets, and record debt levels, many countries are simply growing poorer.”

Absent from the World Bank analysis is any mention of how more than a decade of artificially low interest rates and trillions of dollars in quantitative easing by central banks created the wave of inflation that continues to sweep the globe, along with massive levels of debt and all kinds of economic bubbles.

If you listen to the mainstream narrative, you would think inflation just came out of nowhere, and central banks are innocent victims nobly struggling to save the day by raising interest rates. Pundits fret about rising rates but never mention that rates were only so low for so long because of the actions of central banks. And they seem oblivious to the consequences of those policies.

But being oblivious doesn’t shield you from the impact of those consequences.

In reality, central banks and governments implemented policies intended to incentivize the accumulation of debt. They created trillions of dollars out of thin air and showered the world with stimulus, unleashing the inflation monster. And now they’re trying to battle the dragon they set loose by raising interest rates. This will inevitably pop the bubble they intentionally blew up. That’s why the World Bank is forecasting Great Recession-era growth. All of this was entirely predictable.

After all, artificially low interest rates are the mother’s milk of a global economy built on easy money and debt. When you take away the milk, the baby gets hungry. That’s what’s happening today. With interest rates rising, the bubbles are starting to pop.

And it’s probably going to be much worse than most people realize. There are more malinvestments, more debt, and more bubbles in the global economy today than there were in 2008. There is every reason to believe the bust will be much worse today than it was then.

In other words, you can strike “short” and “shallow” from your recession vocabulary.

Even the World Bank is hinting at this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/07/2023 - 15:20

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DNAmFitAge: Biological age indicator incorporating physical fitness

“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”…

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June 7, 2023

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“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”

Credit: 2023 McGreevy et al.

“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”

BUFFALO, NY- June 7, 2023 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 15, Issue 10, entitled, “DNAmFitAge: biological age indicator incorporating physical fitness.”

Physical fitness is a well-known correlate of health and the aging process and DNA methylation (DNAm) data can capture aging via epigenetic clocks. However, current epigenetic clocks did not yet use measures of mobility, strength, lung, or endurance fitness in their construction. 

In this new study, researchers Kristen M. McGreevy, Zsolt Radak, Ferenc Torma, Matyas Jokai, Ake T. Lu, Daniel W. Belsky, Alexandra Binder, Riccardo E. Marioni, Luigi Ferrucci, Ewelina Pośpiech, Wojciech Branicki, Andrzej Ossowski, Aneta Sitek, Magdalena Spólnicka, Laura M. Raffield, Alex P. Reiner, Simon Cox, Michael Kobor, David L. Corcoran, and Steve Horvath from the University of California Los Angeles, University of Physical Education, Altos Labs, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, University of Hawaii, University of Edinburgh, National Institute on Aging, Jagiellonian University, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, University of Łódź, Central Forensic Laboratory of the Police in Warsaw, Poland, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Washington, and University of British Columbia develop blood-based DNAm biomarkers for fitness parameters including gait speed (walking speed), maximum handgrip strength, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) which have modest correlation with fitness parameters in five large-scale validation datasets (average r between 0.16–0.48). 

“These parameters were chosen because handgrip strength and VO2max provide insight into the two main categories of fitness: strength and endurance [23], and gait speed and FEV1 provide insight into fitness-related organ function: mobility and lung function [8, 24].”

The researchers then used these DNAm fitness parameter biomarkers with DNAmGrimAge, a DNAm mortality risk estimate, to construct DNAmFitAge, a new biological age indicator that incorporates physical fitness. DNAmFitAge was associated with low-intermediate physical activity levels across validation datasets (p = 6.4E-13), and younger/fitter DNAmFitAge corresponds to stronger DNAm fitness parameters in both males and females. 

DNAmFitAge was lower (p = 0.046) and DNAmVO2max is higher (p = 0.023) in male body builders compared to controls. Physically fit people had a younger DNAmFitAge and experienced better age-related outcomes: lower mortality risk (p = 7.2E-51), coronary heart disease risk (p = 2.6E-8), and increased disease-free status (p = 1.1E-7). These new DNAm biomarkers provide researchers a new method to incorporate physical fitness into epigenetic clocks.

“Our newly constructed DNAm biomarkers and DNAmFitAge provide researchers and physicians a new method to incorporate physical fitness into epigenetic clocks and emphasizes the effect lifestyle has on the aging methylome.”
 

Read the full study: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.204538 

Corresponding Authors: Kristen M. McGreevy, Zsolt Radak, Steve Horvath

Corresponding Emails: kristenmae@ucla.edu, radak.zsolt@tf.hu, shorvath@mednet.ucla.edu 

Keywords: epigenetics, aging, physical fitness, biological age, DNA methylation

Sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article: https://aging.altmetric.com/details/email_updates?id=10.18632%2Faging.204538

 

About Aging-US:

Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

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For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

 

Aging (Aging-US) Journal Office

6666 E. Quaker Str., Suite 1B

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Phone: 1-800-922-0957, option 1

###

Journal

Aging-US

DOI

10.18632/aging.204538

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

DNAmFitAge: biological age indicator incorporating physical fitness

Article Publication Date

31-May-2023

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Martha Stewart Has a Spicy Take on Americans Who Want to Work From Home

This half-baked take might need to stay in the oven a little longer.

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6 hours ago

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June 7, 2023

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Lifestyle icon Martha Stewart has been on a roll when it comes to representing vivacious women over 60. Whether she's teaming up to charm audiences alongside her BFF Snoop Dogg, poking fun at Elon Musk, or starring as Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit Issue cover model, Martha stays busy. 

Her most recent publicity moment, however, doesn't have the same wholesome feeling Stewart brings to the table. In an interview with Footwear News, the DIY-queen had some choice words about Americans who want to continue working from home after covid-19 lockdown shut down offices.

“You can’t possibly get everything done working three days a week in the office and two days remotely," the cozy-home guru said. "Look at the success of France with their stupid … you know, off for August, blah blah blah. That’s not a very thriving country. Should America go down the drain because people don’t want to go back to work?”

Well, that's certainly a viewpoint. A lot to unpack there. Many online were confused--after all, didn't Stewart basically make her career by "working from home?"

Sitting down with The Today Show, Stewart elaborated on her controversial stance. It seems she's confusing "work from home" with a three-day workweek. 

"I'm having this argument with so many people these days. It's just that my kind of work is very creative and is very collaborative. And I cannot really stomach another zoom. [...But] I hate going to an office, it's empty. During COVID I took every precaution. We [...] set up an office at [...] my home[...] Now we're our offices and our three day work week, I just don't agree with it," Stewart tells viewers. 

"It's frightening because if you read the economic news and look at what's happening everywhere in the world, a three-day workweek doesn't get the work done, doesn't get the productivity up. It doesn't help with the economy and I think that's very important."

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