Key Events In The Coming Week: Payrolls, PMIs And (Lack Of) ProfitsTyler DurdenMon, 08/03/2020 - 09:16
Looking ahead to this week now, the release of PMIs from around the world (today and Wednesday mostly) will set the tone, before the July US jobs report on Friday rounds out the week. On the central bank front, we will hear the monetary policy decision from the Bank of England and Governor Bailey’s ensuing press conference on Thursday. The market also enters the second half of Q2 earnings season, which has already seen a record number of beats in the S&P 500.
Looking at the current week, the data highlights will be Friday's payrolls and various high-frequency economic in the form of survey, with the majority of manufacturing PMIs out on today, before services and composite PMIs come out on Wednesday for the most part. There’ll also be the ISM manufacturing index from the US (today) and non-manufacturing ISM on Wednesday. The key here, according to DB's Jim Reid, will be to see how differentiated PMIs are given that some governments around the world are cautiously easing restrictions with others needing to tighten. For the countries where we already have a flash PMI reading, they generally showed that the recovery has more momentum in Europe than in the US. Many of the flash European levels were the strongest in at least two years, while both manufacturing and services PMIs in the US failed to meet expectations.
As ever caution is required as these are diffusion indices which simply monitor whether activity is better or worse than the previous month. And as the DB strategist notes, remember that the US was never as shutdown as Europe so momentum was always likely to be more in the latter’s favor regardless of the recent rise in cases.
In terms of payrolls on Friday, markets are generally expecting a third straight month of gains, though likely at a slower rate than we saw in June. DB economists are looking for a further +900k gain in the headline, below consensus estimates at +1.578m. This follows last month’s blowout +4.8m increase. The economists also see the unemployment rate falling to 10.5% from 11.1%, in line with the median estimate. This data will give some insight into how the renewed spread of the coronavirus through the US, especially in the South and West have affected the US economy. The rest of the key data can be found in the day by day week ahead guide at the end.
On the central bank front, one highlight will be the Bank of England meeting and Governor Bailey’s ensuing press conference on Thursday. While most economists do not expect any change to the policy rate this meeting, there is a chance for a dovish surprise on the overall commentary and tone. Focus will be on the central bank’s economic projections, the ongoing review of the effective lower bound, and the path of QE.
Elsewhere in central banks, India and Brazil are also releasing their policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The two countries have the highest confirmed coronavirus caseloads outside the US, and are expected to lower interest rates in light of the continued economic impact of the pandemic. Following the FOMC last week and the lifting of the blackout period, we will hear from the Fed's Bullard, Evans, Mester and Kaplan.
Earnings will continue to be in focus, with 133 companies reporting from the S&P 500 and a further 95 from the STOXX 600. Among the releases include HSBC, Heineken, Siemens, Berkshire Hathaway, and Ferrari today. Then tomorrow markets will hear from Bayer, Diageo, Fidelity, BP, Walt Disney and Activision Blizzard. Wednesday will see Deutsche Post, Allianz, Humana, Bayerische Motoren, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, CVS Health, MetLife and Fiserv release earnings. Following that, Thursday includes Merck, AXA, Siemens, adidas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, Becton Dickinson & Co, Zoetis, T-Mobile, Illumina. Finally on Friday, Standard Life Aberdeen, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Ventas. So another busy week.
Here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Data: Japan final Q1 GDP; Japan, China (Caixin), Brazil, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US (Markit) final July manufacturing PMIs; US July ISM manufacturing index, June construction spending and July total vehicle sales
Central Banks: Fed's Bullard and Evans speak on economic outlook
Earnings: HSBC, Heineken, Siemens Healthineers, Berkshire Hathaway, Global Payments, Ferrari
Data: Euro Area June PPI; Canada July manufacturing PMI; US June factory orders, and final durable goods orders; Japan CPI, France June budget balance
Earnings: Bayer, Diageo, Fidelity, BP, Walt Disney, Activision Blizzard
Data: Japan, China (Caixin), Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US Markit final July services and composite PMIs; US July ISM non-manufacturing index, weekly MBA mortgage applications, June trade balance, and July ADP employment change; UK July new car registrations
Central Banks: Brazil Monetary policy decision; Fed's Mester speaks
Earnings: Deutsche Post, Allianz, Humana, Bayerische Motoren, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, CVS Health, MetLife, Fiserv
Data: Germany June factory orders and July construction PMI; Italy June industrial production; UK July construction PMI; US July job cuts, weekly initials jobless claims and continuing claims
Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from India and the Bank of England; BoE Governor Bailey speaks; Fed's Kaplan speaks
Earnings: Merck, AXA, Siemens, adidas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, Becton Dickinson & Co, Zoetis, American Electric, Booking Holdings, T-Mobile, Illumina
Data: Japan June labour cash earnings, real cash earnings, household spending, and preliminary June leading index; Germany June trade balance, June current account balance and June industrial production; France preliminary Q2 private sector payrolls, June industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance and Q2 wages; Spain June industrial output; US July change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, labour force participation rate, final June wholesale inventories, June consumer credit; China July trade balance, foreign reserves, and Q2 BoP current account balance
Central Banks: Reserve Bank of Australia statement on monetary policy
Earnings: Standard Life Aberdeen, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ventas
Finally as Goldman notes, focusing just on the US, the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.
Monday, August 3
09:45 AM Markit US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 51.3, last 51.3)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 53.6, consensus 53.5, last 52.6); We expect the ISM manufacturing index to increase by 1.0pt to 53.6 in July, after rising by 9.5pt in June. Our manufacturing survey tracker increased from 51.2 to 53.6 in July.
10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -2.1%); We estimate a 0.7% increase in construction spending in June, with a faster recovery in non-residential than residential construction.
12:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on monetary policy and the economy at a virtual event. Audience and media Q&A are expected.
01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event.
02:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will provide a briefing on the economy to reporters on a conference call.
Tuesday, August 4
10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS +6.0%, consensus +5.0%, last +8.0%); Durable goods orders, June final (last +7.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June final (last +3.3%); Core capital goods orders, June final (last +3.3%); Core capital goods shipments, June final (last +3.4%): We estimate factory orders increased by 6.0% in June following an 8.0% rebound in May. Durable goods orders rose by 7.3% in the June advance report.
Wednesday, August 5
08:15 AM ADP employment report, July (GS +1,600k, consensus +1,200k, last +1,000k); We expect a 1,600k gain in ADP payroll employment, reflecting a boost from lower jobless claims and prior-month payrolls.
08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$50.0bn, consensus -$50.3bn, last -$54.6bn); We estimate the trade deficit decreased by $4.6bn in June, reflecting a decline in the goods trade deficit.
10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, July (GS 54.0, consensus 55.0, last 57.1); Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased by 49.4pt to 51.2 in July, following stronger regional service sector surveys. However, increased virus-related restrictions in some states are likely weigh on responses. We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to decrease by 3.1pt to 54.0 in the July report.
05:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
Thursday, August 6
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 1 (GS 1,300k, consensus 1,415k, last 1,434k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 25 (consensus 16,940k, last 17,018k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined but remain elevated at 1,300k in the week ended August 1.
10:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will discuss the outlook for monetary policy and the economy at a virtual panel hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
Friday, August 7
08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +1,000k, consensus +1,578k, last +4,800k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +800k, consensus +1,326k, last +4,767k); Average hourly earnings (mom), July (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.5%, last -1.2%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), July (GS +4.4%, consensus +4.2%, last +5.0%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 10.7%, consensus 10.5%, last 11.1%): We estimate nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +1.0mn in July after +4.8mn in June. Our forecast reflects an outright decline in employment in the Sunbelt that is more than offset by net gains in the rest of the country. We also believe education seasonality could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500-750k, as many end-of-school-year layoffs took place in April rather than in June/July. Because of difficulty measuring temporary business closures in the establishment survey, we note scope for nonfarm payrolls to outperform the household survey measure of employment in Friday’s report. We expect that household employment rose by slightly less than payrolls and that the labor force participation rate increased as a recovering labor market encouraged job searches, but that the unemployment rate still fell by four tenths to 10.7% in July. We estimate average hourly earnings declined 0.3% month-over-month (but remain up 4.4% year-over-year) as lower-paid workers were rehired and the composition shift toward higher paid workers continued to unwind.
08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June final (consensus -2.0%, prior -2.0%)
In this specific predicament, U.S. officials have to choose a strategy to deliver the aid without the perception of benefiting Hamas, a group the U.S. and Israel both classify as a terrorist organization.
When aiding people in war zones, you can’t just send money, a development strategy called “cash transfers” that has become increasingly popular due to its efficiency. Sending money can boost the supply of locally produced goods and services and help people on the ground pay for what they need most. But injecting cash into an economy so completely cut off from the world would only stoke inflation.
So the aid must consist of goods that have to be brought into Gaza, and services provided by people working as part of an aid mission. Humanitarian aid can include food and water; health, sanitation and hygiene supplies and services; and tents and other materials for shelter and settlement.
Due to the closure of the border with Israel, aid can arrive in Gaza only via the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border.
The U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, will likely turn to its longtime partner on the ground, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, to serve as supply depots and distribute goods. That agency, originally founded in 1949 as a temporary measure until a two-state solution could be found, serves in effect as a parallel yet unelected government for Palestinian refugees.
USAID will likely want to tap into UNRWA’s network of 284 schools – many of which are now transformed into humanitarian shelters housing two-thirds of the estimated 1 million people displaced by Israeli airstrikes – and 22 hospitals to expedite distribution.
Since Biden took office, total yearly U.S. assistance for the Palestinian territories has totaled around $150 million, restored from just $8 million in 2020 under the Trump administration. During the Obama administration, however, the U.S. was providing more aid to the territories than it is now, with $1 billion disbursed in the 2013 fiscal year.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency is a U.N. organization. It’s not run by Hamas, unlike, for instance, the Gaza Ministry of Health. However, Hamas has frequently undermined UNRWA’s efforts and diverted international aid for military purposes.
Humanitarian aid professionals regularly have to contend with these trade-offs when deciding to what extent they can work with governments and local authorities that commit violent acts. They need to do so in exchange for the access required to help civilians under their control.
Similarly, Biden has had to make concessions to Israel while brokering for the freedom to send humanitarian aid to Gaza. For example, he has assured Israel that if any of the aid is diverted by Hamas, the operation will cease.
This promise may have been politically necessary. But if Biden already believes Hamas to be uncaring about civilian welfare, he may not expect the group to refrain from taking what they can.
Security best practices
What can be done to protect the security of humanitarian aid operations that take place in the midst of dangerous conflicts?
Under International Humanitarian Law, local authorities have the primary responsibility for ensuring the delivery of aid – even when they aren’t carrying out that task. To increase the chances that the local authorities will not attack them, aid groups can give “humanitarian notification” and voluntarily alert the local government as to where they will be operating.
Under the current agreement between the U.S., Israel and Egypt, the convoy will raise the U.N. flag. International inspectors will make sure no weapons are on board the vehicles before crossing over from Arish, Egypt, to Rafah, a city located on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
The aid convoy will likely cross without militarized security. This puts it at some danger of diversion once inside Gaza. But whether the aid convoy is attacked, seized or left alone, the Biden administration will have demonstrated its willingness to attempt a humanitarian relief operation. In this sense, a relatively small first convoy bearing water, medical supplies and food, among other items, serves as a test balloon for a sustained operation to follow soon after.
In that case, the presence of U.S. armed forces might provoke attacks on Gaza-bound aid convoys by Hamas and Islamic jihad fighters that otherwise would not have occurred. Combined with the mobilization of two U.S. Navy carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, I’d be concerned that such a move might also stoke regional anger. It would undermine the Biden administration’s attempts to cool the situation.
On U.N.-approved missions, aid delivery may be secured by third-party peacekeepers – meaning, in this case, personnel who are neither Israeli nor Palestinian – with the U.N. Security Council’s blessing. In this case, tragically, it’s unlikely that such a resolution could conceivably pass such a vote, much less quickly enough to make a difference.
Topher L. McDougal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
Credit: 2023 Barbarewicz et al.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
BUFFALO, NY- October 20, 2023 – A new research perspective was published in Oncoscience (Volume 10) on October 4, 2023, entitled, “Diagnosis and management of postoperative wound infections in the head and neck region.”
In everyday clinical practice at a department for oral and maxillofacial surgery, a large number of surgical procedures in the head and neck region take place under both outpatient and inpatient conditions. The basis of every surgical intervention is the patient’s consent to the respective procedure. Particular attention is drawn to the general and operation-specific risks.
Particularly in the case of soft tissue procedures in the facial region, bleeding, secondary bleeding, scarring and infection of the surgical area are among the most common complications/risks, depending on the respective procedure. In their new perspective, researchers Filip Barbarewicz, Kai-Olaf Henkel and Florian Dudde from Army Hospital Hamburg in Germany discuss the diagnosis and management of postoperative infections in the head and neck region.
“In order to minimize the wound infections/surgical site infections, aseptic operating conditions with maximum sterility are required.”
Furthermore, depending on the extent of the surgical procedure and the patient‘s previous illnesses, peri- and/or postoperative antibiotics should be considered in order to avoid postoperative surgical site infection. Abscesses, cellulitis, phlegmone and (depending on the location of the procedure) empyema are among the most common postoperative infections in the respective surgical area. The main pathogens of these infections are staphylococci, although mixed (germ) patterns are also possible.
“Risk factors for the development of a postoperative surgical site infection include, in particular, increased age, smoking, multiple comorbidities and/or systemic diseases (e.g., diabetes mellitus type II) as well as congenital and/ or acquired immune deficiency [10, 11].”
Continue reading the paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/oncoscience.589
Correspondence to: Florian Dudde
Keywords: surgical site infection, head and neck surgery
Oncoscience is a peer-reviewed, open-access, traditional journal covering the rapidly growing field of cancer research, especially emergent topics not currently covered by other journals. This journal has a special mission: Freeing oncology from publication cost. It is free for the readers and the authors.
To learn more about Oncoscience, visit Oncoscience.us and connect with us on social media:
A year after the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, he presented a new scheme to the Department of Education on Tuesday. While it is less aggressive than the prior plan, this proposal would cost hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, doing more harm than good.
As the legendary economist Milton Friedman noted, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
Higher education in America is costly, and this “forgiveness” would make it worse.
Signing up for potentially life-long student loans at a young age is too normalized. At the same time, not enough borrowers can secure jobs that offer adequate financial support to pay off these massive loans upon graduation or leaving college. These issues demand serious attention. But “erasing” student loans, as well-intentioned as it may be, is not the panacea Americans have been led to believe.
Upon closer examination, the President’s forgiveness plan creates winners and losers, ultimately benefiting higher-income earners the most. In reality, this plan amounts to wealth redistribution. To quote another top economist, Thomas Sowell described this clearly: “There are no solutions, only trade-offs.”
Forgiving student loans is not the end of the road but the beginning of a trade-off for a rising federal fiscal crisis and soaring college tuition.
When the federal government uses taxpayer funds to give student loans, it charges an interest rate to account for the cost of the loan. To say that all borrowers no longer have to pay would mean taxpayers lose along with those who pay for it and those who have been paying or have paid off their student loans.
Let’s consider that there will be 168 million tax returns filed this year. A simple calculation suggests that student loan forgiveness could add around $2,000 yearly in taxes per taxpayer, based on the CRFB’s central estimate.
Clearly, nothing is free, and the burden of student loan forgiveness will be shifted to taxpayers.
One notable feature of this plan is that forgiveness is unavailable to individuals earning over $125,000 annually. In practice, this means that six-figure earners could have their debts partially paid off by lower-income tax filers who might not have even pursued higher education. This skewed allocation of resources is a sharp departure from progressive policy.
Inflation remains high, affordable housing is a distant dream, and wages fail to keep up with soaring inflation. Introducing the potential of an additional $2,000 annual tax burden at least for those already struggling, mainly to subsidize high-income earners, adds insult to injury.
Furthermore, it’s vital to recognize that the burden of unpaid student loans should not fall on low-income earners or Americans who did not attend college. Incentives play a crucial role in influencing markets.
By removing the incentive for student loan borrowers to repay their debts, we may encourage more individuals to pursue higher education and accumulate debt without the intention of paying it back. After all, why would they when it can be written off through higher taxes for everyone?
The ripple effect of this plan could be far-reaching.
It may make college more accessible for some, opening the floodgates for students and the need for universities to expand and hire more staff, leading to even higher college tuition. This perverse incentive will set a precedent that will create a cycle of soaring tuition, which would counteract the original goal of making higher education more affordable.
While the intention behind President Biden’s student loan forgiveness may appear noble (in likelihood, it is a rent-seeking move), the results may prove detrimental to our nation’s economic stability and fairness. And if the debt is monetized, more inflation will result.
Forgiving student loans will exacerbate existing problems, with the brunt of the burden falling on lower-income Americans. Instead of improving the situation, it will likely create an intricate web of financial consequences, indirectly affecting the very people it aims to help. But that is the result of most government programs with good intentions.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is president of Ginn Economic Consulting, chief economist or senior fellow at multiple state thinks across the country, host of the Let People Prosper Show, and previously the associate director for economic policy of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20. Follow him on X.com @VanceGinn.