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Key Events In THe Coming Holiday-Shortened Week

Key Events In THe Coming Holiday-Shortened Week



Key Events In THe Coming Holiday-Shortened Week Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2020 - 09:40

As the mid-summer sun rises, we see a shortened trading week with Friday a US holiday in lieu of Independence Day on Saturday, and as DB's Jim Reid predicts, Thursday will likely see activity wind down early and rapidly ahead of the weekend.

That said, the last major act of the week will be the all-important payrolls report brought forward to Thursday, where DB's economists are looking for a further +2m gain in non-farm payrolls, following last month’s unexpected +2.509m increase, along with a further reduction in the unemployment rate to 12.6% (unclear if this assume the BLS will continue making the same admitted mistake it has been doing for the past two months). This improved labor market performance chimes with what we’ve seen in other indicators, such as the weekly initial jobless claims that have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks now. That said, it’s worth remembering that given the US shed over 22m jobs in March and April, even another +2m reading would still mean that payrolls have recovered less than a quarter of their total losses, suggesting there’s still a long way to go before the labor market returns to normality again.

The other main data highlight will be the final June PMI releases from around the world. The manufacturing numbers are out on Wednesday before the services and composite PMIs come out on Friday for the most part (ex US), while there’ll also be the ISM manufacturing index too from the US (on Wednesday). For the countries where we already have a flash PMI reading, they generally surprised to the upside, even as many remained below the 50-mark. It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on the numbers for China, given they’re some way ahead in the reopening process relative to the US and Europe.

In politics, a key highlight this week will be a meeting between Chancellor Merkel and President Macron taking place today, where both the EU budget and the recovery fund will be on the agenda. That comes ahead of another summit of EU leaders scheduled for the 17-18th July, where the 27 leaders will meet in person in Brussels for further discussions on the recovery fund. Meanwhile, the start of July on Wednesday formally sees Germany take over the rotating EU presidency, which they’ll hold for the next six months.

Staying with politics, Reid points out that Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU on their future relationship will return once again. This will be the first set of intensified talks that are taking place every week over the next five weeks, as the two sides look to come to an agreement following fairly slow progress in the talks thus far. Since the last round of negotiations, a high-level meeting took place between Prime Minister Johnson and the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament, where the two sides agreed in their statement that “new momentum was required” in the discussions. There does seem a bit more positivity now than there was a month ago but much work still needs to be done.

Elsewhere we have the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting on Wednesday, along with an appearance by Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, speakers next week include the BoE’s Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, along with the ECB’s Schnabel and New York Fed President Williams.

Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events:


  • Data: Japan May retail sales; Spain preliminary June CPI; UK May consumer credit, mortgage approvals, M4 money supply; Euro area June economic, industrial, services and consumer confidence; Germany preliminary June CPI; US May pending home sales and June Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.
  • Central Banks: BoE's Bailey, Breeden and Vlieghe speeches; Fed's Daly and Williams speeches; IMF's Georgieva speech.
  • Politics: German and French leaders meet to discuss clinching a deal on the EU recovery fund.
  • Others: EU Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier meets UK counterpart David Frost for further talks on a trade deal.


  • Data: Japan preliminary May industrial production; China June official PMIs; UK final June GfK consumer confidence, June Lloyds business barometer, final 1Q GDP, private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports, business investments, current account balance, imports; France preliminary June CPI, May PPI and consumer spending; Spain final 1Q GDP; Italy preliminary June CPI and May PPI; Euro area preliminary June CPI and Core CPI; US April S&P CoreLogic house price index, June Chicago Fed PMI, Conference board consumer confidence, expectations and present situation index.
  • Central Banks: ECB Schnabel speech; BoE Cunliffe and Haldane speeches; Fed Williams speech; Colombia rate decision.
  • Others: Fed's Powell and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testify before the House Finance Panel.
  • Politics: European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in a virtual summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks on the geopolitical implications of Covid-19.


  • Data: Japan 2Q Tankan survey results, June consumer confidence and final June manufacturing PMI; China June Caixin manufacturing PMI; Spain June manufacturing PMI; Italy June manufacturing PMI; France final June manufacturing PMI; Germany final June manufacturing PMI, June unemployment claims rate and unemployment change; Euro area final June manufacturing PMI; UK final June manufacturing PMI; US latest weekly MBA mortgage applications, June Challenger job cuts and ADP employment change, final June manufacturing PMI, May construction spending, June ISM manufacturing, new orders, prices paid and employment, June FOMC meeting minutes, June Wards total vehicles sales.
  • Central Banks: Sweden rate decision, BoE Haskel speech; Fed Evans speech.
  • Politics: Russia holds the final day of voting on changes to the nation’s constitution.
  • Others: The head of Germany’s BaFin financial regulator testifies before the German parliament on the accounting scandal at payment-processing firm Wirecard AG; the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is due to take effect.


  • Data: Euro area May PPI and unemployment rate; US May trade balance, June nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, latest weekly initial and continuing claims, May factory orders, final May durable goods and capital goods orders.
  • Others: SIFMA has recommended an early close (14:00 EDT) for the fixed-income market before the U.S. Independence Day holiday


  • Data: Final June services and composite PMIs for Japan, China (Caixin), Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro area and UK; France May YtD budget balance; UK June official reserve changes.
  • Central Banks: ECB Knot speech.
  • Others: US Independence Day holiday

* * *

Finally, courtesy of Goldman, here is a preview of events in the US, where as Jan Hatzius notes, key events this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday and the employment report on Thursday. The minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, June 29

  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +33.0%, consensus +18.0%, last -21.8%): We estimate that pending home sales rebounded by 33.0% in May based on regional home sales data, following a 21.8% drop in April. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one-to-two-month lag.
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus -22.0, last -49.2)
  • 11:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak on a panel discussion on higher education. Prepared text is not expected. Audience and media Q&A are expected.
  • 3:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion with IMF Managing Director Georgieva.

Tuesday, June 30

  • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, April (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.47%); We estimate the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased by 0.7% in April, following a 0.47% increase in March.
  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, June (GS 46.0, consensus 44.0, last 32.3); We estimate that the Chicago PMI rebounded by 13.7pt to 46.0 in June—following a 3.1pt decline in May—reflecting improved June readings for other manufacturing surveys.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, June (GS 94.0, consensus 90.5, last 86.6): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index increased to 94.0 in June from 86.6 in May.
  • 11:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give a speech via webinar on central banking during the pandemic. Prepared text and moderator Q&A are expected.
  • 12:30 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Prepared text is TBD and questions from Members are expected.
  • 02:00 PM: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a virtual panel discussion on race and social justice in economics. Prepared text is not expected. Audience Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, July 1

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, June (GS +2,500k, consensus +2,950k, last -2,760k); We expect a 2,500k gain in ADP payroll employment, reflecting a boost from falling jobless claims and higher oil prices. We expect the “active” employment input to understate actual job gains in the ADP model.
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, June (GS 49.0, consensus 49.5, last 43.1); We expect the ISM manufacturing index to increase by 5.9pt to 49.0 in June, after rebounding by 1.6pt in May. While we expect the key components – new orders, production, and employment – to improve; faster delivery times will likely weigh on the degree of recovery in the composite index.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, May (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last -2.9%): We estimate a 0.8% increase in construction spending in May, with a faster recovery in non-residential than residential construction.
  • 10:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will host a forum on the future of the city of Chicago. Prepared text is not expected, nor is discussion of monetary policy. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 02:00 PM Minutes from the June 9-10 FOMC meeting: At its June meeting, the FOMC left the target range for the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; and in the Summary of Economic Projections, participants expected high unemployment, low inflation, and a flat funds rate through 2022. In the minutes, we will look for further discussion of the economic outlook and the Fed’s toolkit, including the Committee’s discussion of yield curve control.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 13.1m, consensus 13.0m, last 12.2m)

Thursday, July 2

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, June (GS +4,250k, consensus +3,000k, last +2,509k); Private payroll employment, June (GS +4000k, consensus +2,519k, last +3,094k); Average hourly earnings (mom), June (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.8%, last -1.0%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), June (GS +5.3%, consensus +5.3%, last +6.7%); Unemployment rate, June (GS 12.7%, consensus 12.4%, last 13.3%): We estimate nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from the +2.5mn record gain in May to +4.25mn in June. With much of the economy reopening, our forecast reflects a rapid albeit partial reversal of temporary layoffs. While jobless claims remain elevated, alternative data suggest unprecedented increases in the number of workers at work sites. We also expect a seasonal bias in education categories to boost job growth by roughly 0.5mn.
  • We expect that about half of the 4.9mn excess workers that were employed but not at work for “other reasons” in May will be reclassified as unemployed in the June household survey, applying upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Additionally, we expect the labor force participation rate increased as business reopenings encouraged job searches. Taken altogether, we estimate the unemployment rate as reported will fall by 0.6pp to 12.7% in Thursday’s report. Correcting for misclassification of unemployed workers, we estimate the “true” unemployment rate declined more significantly, but to an even higher level (-2.4pp to 14.0% in June from 16.4% in May).
  • We estimate average hourly earnings declined 1.0% month-over-month and 5.3% year-over-year as lower-paid workers are rehired and the associated composition shift unwinds.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, May (GS -$54.0bn, consensus -$53.0bn, last -$49.4bn): We estimate the trade deficit increased by $4.1bn in May, reflecting a rise in the goods trade deficit.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 27 (GS 1,375k, consensus 1,336k, last 1,480k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 20 (consensus 18,904k, last 19,522k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined but remained elevated at 1,375k in the week ended June 27.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, May (GS +11.1%, consensus +7.9%, last -13.0%); Durable goods orders, May final (last +15.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May final (last +4.0%); Core capital goods orders, May final (last +2.3%); Core capital goods shipments, May final (last +1.8%)

Friday, July 3

  • US Independence Day holiday observed. US equity and bond markets are closed.

Source: DB, BofA

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Glimpse Of Sanity: Dartmouth Returns Standardized Testing For Admission After Failed Experiment

Glimpse Of Sanity: Dartmouth Returns Standardized Testing For Admission After Failed Experiment

In response to the virus pandemic and nationwide…



Glimpse Of Sanity: Dartmouth Returns Standardized Testing For Admission After Failed Experiment

In response to the virus pandemic and nationwide Black Lives Matter riots in the summer of 2020, some elite colleges and universities shredded testing requirements for admission. Several years later, the test-optional admission has yet to produce the promising results for racial and class-based equity that many woke academic institutions wished.

The failure of test-optional admission policies has forced Dartmouth College to reinstate standardized test scores for admission starting next year. This should never have been eliminated, as merit will always prevail. 

"Nearly four years later, having studied the role of testing in our admissions process as well as its value as a predictor of student success at Dartmouth, we are removing the extended pause and reactivating the standardized testing requirement for undergraduate admission, effective with the Class of 2029," Dartmouth wrote in a press release Monday morning. 

"For Dartmouth, the evidence supporting our reactivation of a required testing policy is clear. Our bottom line is simple: we believe a standardized testing requirement will improve—not detract from—our ability to bring the most promising and diverse students to our campus," the elite college said. 

Who would've thought eliminating standardized tests for admission because a fringe minority said they were instruments of racism and a biased system was ever a good idea? 

Also, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out. More from Dartmouth, who commissioned the research: 

They also found that test scores represent an especially valuable tool to identify high-achieving applicants from low and middle-income backgrounds; who are first-generation college-bound; as well as students from urban and rural backgrounds.

All the colleges and universities that quickly adopted test-optional admissions in 2020 experienced a surge in applications. Perhaps the push for test-optional was under the guise of woke equality but was nothing more than protecting the bottom line for these institutions. 

A glimpse of sanity returns to woke schools: Admit qualified kids. Next up is corporate America and all tiers of the US government. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/05/2024 - 17:20

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Four burning questions about the future of the $16.5B Novo-Catalent deal

To build or to buy? That’s a classic question for pharma boardrooms, and Novo Nordisk is going with both.
Beyond spending billions of dollars to expand…



To build or to buy? That’s a classic question for pharma boardrooms, and Novo Nordisk is going with both.

Beyond spending billions of dollars to expand its own production capacity for its weight loss drugs, the Danish drugmaker said Monday it will pay $11 billion to acquire three manufacturing plants from Catalent. It’s part of a broader $16.5 billion deal with Novo Holdings, the investment arm of the pharma’s parent group, which agreed to acquire the contract manufacturer and take it private.

It’s a big deal for all parties, with potential ripple effects across the biotech ecosystem. Here’s a look at some of the most pressing questions to watch after Monday’s announcement.

Why did Novo do this?

Novo Holdings isn’t the most obvious buyer for Catalent, particularly after last year’s on-and-off M&A interest from the serial acquirer Danaher. But the deal could benefit both Novo Holdings and Novo Nordisk.

Novo Nordisk’s biggest challenge has been simply making enough of the weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes therapy Ozempic. On last week’s earnings call, Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said the company isn’t constrained by capital in its efforts to boost manufacturing. Rather, the main challenge is the limited amount of capabilities out there, he said.

“Most pharmaceutical companies in the world would be shopping among the same manufacturers,” he said. “There’s not an unlimited amount of machinery and people to build it.”

While Novo was already one of Catalent’s major customers, the manufacturer has been hamstrung by its own balance sheet. With roughly $5 billion in debt on its books, it’s had to juggle paying down debt with sufficiently investing in its facilities. That’s been particularly challenging in keeping pace with soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs.

Novo, on the other hand, has the balance sheet to funnel as much money as needed into the plants in Italy, Belgium, and Indiana. It’s also struggled to make enough of its popular GLP-1 drugs to meet their soaring demand, with documented shortages of both Ozempic and Wegovy.

The impact won’t be immediate. The parties expect the deal to close near the end of 2024. Novo Nordisk said it expects the three new sites to “gradually increase Novo Nordisk’s filling capacity from 2026 and onwards.”

As for the rest of Catalent — nearly 50 other sites employing thousands of workers — Novo Holdings will take control. The group previously acquired Altasciences in 2021 and Ritedose in 2022, so the Catalent deal builds on a core investing interest in biopharma services, Novo Holdings CEO Kasim Kutay told Endpoints News.

Kasim Kutay

When asked about possible site closures or layoffs, Kutay said the team hasn’t thought about that.

“That’s not our track record. Our track record is to invest in quality businesses and help them grow,” he said. “There’s always stuff to do with any asset you own, but we haven’t bought this company to do some of the stuff you’re talking about.”

What does it mean for Catalent’s customers? 

Until the deal closes, Catalent will operate as a standalone business. After it closes, Novo Nordisk said it will honor its customer obligations at the three sites, a spokesperson said. But they didn’t answer a question about what happens when those contracts expire.

The wrinkle is the long-term future of the three plants that Novo Nordisk is paying for. Those sites don’t exclusively pump out Wegovy, but that could be the logical long-term aim for the Danish drugmaker.

The ideal scenario is that pricing and timelines remain the same for customers, said Nicole Paulk, CEO of the gene therapy startup Siren Biotechnology.

Nicole Paulk

“The name of the group that you’re going to send your check to is now going to be Novo Holdings instead of Catalent, but otherwise everything remains the same,” Paulk told Endpoints. “That’s the best-case scenario.”

In a worst case, Paulk said she feared the new owners could wind up closing sites or laying off Catalent groups. That could create some uncertainty for customers looking for a long-term manufacturing partner.

Are shareholders and regulators happy? 

The pandemic was a wild ride for Catalent’s stock, with shares surging from about $40 to $140 and then crashing back to earth. The $63.50 share price for the takeover is a happy ending depending on the investor.

On that point, the investing giant Elliott Investment Management is satisfied. Marc Steinberg, a partner at Elliott, called the agreement “an outstanding outcome” that “clearly maximizes value for Catalent stockholders” in a statement.

Elliott helped kick off a strategic review last August that culminated in the sale agreement. Compared to Catalent’s stock price before that review started, the deal pays a nearly 40% premium.

Alessandro Maselli

But this is hardly a victory lap for CEO Alessandro Maselli, who took over in July 2022 when Catalent’s stock price was north of $100. Novo’s takeover is a tacit acknowledgment that Maselli could never fully right the ship, as operational problems plagued the company throughout 2023 while it was limited by its debt.

Additional regulatory filings in the next few weeks could give insight into just how competitive the sale process was. William Blair analysts said they don’t expect a competing bidder “given the organic investments already being pursued at other leading CDMOs and the breadth and scale of Catalent’s operations.”

The Blair analysts also noted the companies likely “expect to spend some time educating relevant government agencies” about the deal, given the lengthy closing timeline. Given Novo Nordisk’s ascent — it’s now one of Europe’s most valuable companies — paired with the limited number of large contract manufacturers, antitrust regulators could be interested in taking a close look.

Are Catalent’s problems finally a thing of the past?

Catalent ran into a mix of financial and operational problems over the past year that played no small part in attracting the interest of an activist like Elliott.

Now with a deal in place, how quickly can Novo rectify those problems? Some of the challenges were driven by the demands of being a publicly traded company, like failing to meet investors’ revenue expectations or even filing earnings reports on time.

But Catalent also struggled with its business at times, with a range of manufacturing delays, inspection reports and occasionally writing down acquisitions that didn’t pan out. Novo’s deep pockets will go a long way to a turnaround, but only the future will tell if all these issues are fixed.

Kutay said his team is excited by the opportunity and was satisfied with the due diligence it did on the company.

“We believe we’re buying a strong company with a good management team and good prospects,” Kutay said. “If that wasn’t the case, I don’t think we’d be here.”

Amber Tong and Reynald Castañeda contributed reporting.

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Petrina Kamya, Ph.D., Head of AI Platforms at Insilico Medicine, presents at BIO CEO & Investor Conference

Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb….



Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb. 26-27 at the New York Marriott Marquis in New York City. Dr. Kamya will speak as part of the panel “AI within Biopharma: Separating Value from Hype,” on Feb. 27, 1pm ET along with Michael Nally, CEO of Generate: Biomedicines and Liz Schwarzbach, PhD, CBO of BigHat Biosciences.

Credit: Insilico Medicine

Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb. 26-27 at the New York Marriott Marquis in New York City. Dr. Kamya will speak as part of the panel “AI within Biopharma: Separating Value from Hype,” on Feb. 27, 1pm ET along with Michael Nally, CEO of Generate: Biomedicines and Liz Schwarzbach, PhD, CBO of BigHat Biosciences.

The session will look at how the latest artificial intelligence (AI) tools – including generative AI and large language models – are currently being used to advance the discovery and design of new drugs, and which technologies are still in development. 

The BIO CEO & Investor Conference brings together over 1,000 attendees and more than 700 companies across industry and institutional investment to discuss the future investment landscape of biotechnology. Sessions focus on topics such as therapeutic advancements, market outlook, and policy priorities.

Insilico Medicine is a leading, clinical stage AI-driven drug discovery company that has raised over $400m in investments since it was founded in 2014. Dr. Kamya leads the development of the Company’s end-to-end generative AI platform, Pharma.AI from Insilico’s AI R&D Center in Montreal. Using modern machine learning techniques in the context of chemistry and biology, the platform has driven the discovery and design of 30+ new therapies, with five in clinical stages – for cancer, fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and COVID-19. The Company’s lead drug, for the chronic, rare lung condition idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, is the first AI-designed drug for an AI-discovered target to reach Phase II clinical trials with patients. Nine of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies have used Insilico’s AI platform to advance their programs, and the Company has a number of major strategic licensing deals around its AI-designed therapeutic assets, including with Sanofi, Exelixis and Menarini. 


About Insilico Medicine

Insilico Medicine, a global clinical stage biotechnology company powered by generative AI, is connecting biology, chemistry, and clinical trials analysis using next-generation AI systems. The company has developed AI platforms that utilize deep generative models, reinforcement learning, transformers, and other modern machine learning techniques for novel target discovery and the generation of novel molecular structures with desired properties. Insilico Medicine is developing breakthrough solutions to discover and develop innovative drugs for cancer, fibrosis, immunity, central nervous system diseases, infectious diseases, autoimmune diseases, and aging-related diseases. 

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