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Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Jobs, PMIs, And Central Banks

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Jobs, PMIs, And Central Banks

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 09:39

With just a handful of trading days left until the end of what has been an absolutely insane 2020, it’s shaping up to be a…

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Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Jobs, PMIs, And Central Banks Tyler Durden Mon, 11/30/2020 - 09:39

With just a handful of trading days left until the end of what has been an absolutely insane 2020, it’s shaping up to be a fairly busy week for data but as DB's Jim Reid writes, "how much markets will care is a moot point as everyone knows we’re on a short-term path to a double dip but that the short to medium term is a path covered in potential golden vaccine petals."

Data releases include the US jobs report (Friday) and the November PMIs (tomorrow and Thursday), while Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde will both be speaking through the week. Otherwise, attention will remain on the Brexit negotiations, with just a month remaining until the year-end deadline and less time given any deal has to be ratified across the continent.

A full breakdown of key events is shown below:

Looking into more detail, the US jobs report for October on Friday sees consensus at +500k and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% from 6.9%. Though this would be further progress from the situation in the spring, it would still be the slowest monthly jobs growth since the massive contractions in March and April, and leave the total nonfarm payrolls number over 9.5m beneath its pre-Covid peak back in February. Of some concern is the recent weekly initial jobless claims trend which have risen more than expected for the last couple of weeks. So it feels like a difficult month or so ahead for the US economy.

Meanwhile on the PMIs, the flash readings we’ve already had showed a noticeable deterioration in Europe as much of the continent headed into renewed lockdowns. It’ll be interesting to gauge what’s happening in the countries where there aren’t flash readings however, including a number of emerging markets. Also in focus will be the Euro Area’s flash CPI estimate for November tomorrow as for the previous 3 months it’s been in deflationary territory.

Elsewhere on Brexit, face to face talks are back with we are running low on days to ratify a deal. In terms of the current state of play, it has been reported that the last big remaining obstacle in the talks is fishing rights with the UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab asking the EU to recognize that regaining control over British waters is a question of sovereignty for the UK. Meanwhile, on other key obstacles of competition rules and state aid, Raab said that he could see “a landing zone”. If fishing is truly now the only stumbling block this is very good news as the numbers here are minuscule compared to the cost of no deal. Sterling is up +0.21% to 1.3339 overnight.

Finally, there are a number of important central bank speakers this week, with Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appearing before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Meanwhile ECB President Lagarde will be speaking today at the European Policy Center Forum, before she appears at an Atlantic Council event tomorrow. The Fed will also be releasing their Beige Book on Wednesday.

Below, courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 30

  • Data: China November composite, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, Japan October housing starts, UK October mortgage approvals, Italy preliminary November CPI, Germany preliminary November CPI, Canada October building permits, US November MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, October pending home sales, Japan October jobless rate (23:30UK time)
  • Central Banks: ECB President Lagarde and BoE’s Tenreyro speaks

Tuesday December 1

  • Data: November Manufacturing PMIs from Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, China, India, Russia, Turkey, Italy, France, Germany, South Africa, Euro Area, UK, Brazil, Canada, US and Mexico, Japan November vehicle sales, Germany November unemployment change, Euro Area November flash CPI estimate, Canada September GDP, US November ISM manufacturing
  • Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and the Fed’s Brainard, Daly and Evans speak, Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
  • Other: OECD publishes Economic Outlook

Wednesday December 2

  • Data: Euro Area October unemployment rate, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, November ADP employment change
  • Central Banks: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, Fed Chair Powell and Fed’s Williams speak

Thursday December 3

  • Data: November services and composite PMIs from Japan, China, India, Russia, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, Brazil and the US, Euro Area October retail sales, US weekly initial jobless claims, November ISM services index
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Bowman and BoE’s Tenreyro speak

Friday December 4

  • Data: Germany October factory orders, November construction PMI, Italy October retail sales, UK November construction PMI, Canada November net change in employment, US November nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, October trade balance, factory orders, final October durable goods orders, nondefence capital goods orders ex air
  • Central Banks: Reserve Bank of India monetary policy decision

Finally, looking at the US alone, the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing report on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing report and jobless claims on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here is Goldman's take on what to expect:

Monday, November 30

 

  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, November (GS 60.1, consensus 59.1, last 61.1); We estimate that the Chicago PMI edged down by 1.0pt to 60.1 in November. Our forecast reflects resilience in the manufacturing sector.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (GS -1.5%, consensus +1.0%, last -2.2%): We estimate that pending home sales declined by 1.5% in November, reflecting a further deceleration in regional home sales data.

Tuesday, December 1

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 56.7, last 56.7)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 58.3, consensus 57.8, last 59.3): We expect the ISM manufacturing index to edge down by 1.0pt to 58.3 in the November report, reflecting resilience in the manufacturing sector. Our GS Manufacturing Tracker stands at 57.2 in November, compared to 58.2 in October.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, October (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.3%): We estimate a 1.0% increase in construction spending in October, with scope for increases in private residential and public construction.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee to discuss the CARES Act. Prepared text is expected.
  • 12:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Brainard will take part in an online discussion of the modernization of the Community Reinvestment Act. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
  • 01:15 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak at a virtual economic forecast luncheon hosted by Arizona State University. Prepared text and Q&A with audience and media are expected.
  • 03:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will make opening remarks at a community forum on Milwaukee’s future hosted by the Chicago Fed.

Wednesday, December 2

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, November (GS 525k, consensus 440k, last 365k); We expect a 525k gain in ADP payroll employment, reflecting a decline in jobless claims and firmness in private payrolls in November.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee to discuss the CARES Act. Prepared text is expected.
  • 01:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President Williams will brief the press on the economic impact of Covid-19. Prepared text is not expected.

Thursday, December 3

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 28 (GS 760k, consensus 765k, last 778k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 21 (consensus 5,811k, last 6,071k):We estimate initial jobless claim decreased to 760k in the week ended November 28. Our forecast assumes that the worse virus situation continues to put upward pressure on initial claims, but that the DOL’s seasonal adjustment understates the decline in filings due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, November final (consensus 57.6, last 57.7)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, November (GS 55.5, consensus 56.1, last 56.6): We estimate the ISM non-manufacturing index declined by 0.6pt to 55.5 in November, reflecting a likely pullback in leisure, food services, and other services. Our GS Non-Manufacturing Tracker stands at 55.2, compared to 56.1 in October.

Friday, December 4

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, November (GS +450k, consensus +500k, last +638k); Private payroll employment, November (GS +525k, consensus +608k, last +906k); Average hourly earnings (mom), November (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), November (GS +4.2%, consensus +4.2%, last +4.5%); Unemployment rate, November (GS 6.8%, consensus 6.8%, last 6.9%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 450k in November after +638k in October. The broad-based resurgence of the coronavirus and related business restrictions are consistent with a deceleration in job growth, and Big Data employment signals were softer on net. While continuing claims declined during the payroll month, much of the drop reflected the expiration of program eligibility (as opposed to reemployment), and initial claims have started rising again. We also expect a 90k drop in Census jobs in Friday’s report. On the positive side, we estimate strong growth in the construction industry and in trucking, courier, and delivery categories, reflecting favorable weather and the accelerating shift to ecommerce this holiday season, respectively.
  • We estimate the unemployment rate declined a tenth to 6.8%, reflecting an increase in household employment and a pause in the labor force participation rebound (itself related to the third wave of the virus). We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month, lowering the year-on-year rate by three tenths to 4.2%. This forecast reflects negative calendar effects and a continuing unwind of the composition shift from lower-paid workers to higher-paid workers.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$65.0bn, consensus -$64.8bn, last -$63.9bn): We estimate the trade deficit increased by $1.1bn in October, reflecting an increase in the goods trade deficit. Goods imports have returned to their pre-pandemic level, but monthly goods exports are still about $15bn below their pre-pandemic level. Both imports and exports of services have recovered only slightly from their Q2 troughs.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.1%); Durable goods orders, October final (last +0.5%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October final (last +0.3%); Core capital goods orders, October final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, October final (last +2.3%): We estimate factory orders increased by 0.7% in October following a 1.1% increase in September. Durable goods orders rose by 1.3% in the October advance report, and core capital goods orders rose by 0.7%.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Bowman will discuss community banking and fintech in an online event hosted by the Independent Community Bankers of America. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: Deutsche Bank, BofA, Goldman

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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