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Key Event This Week: Geopolitics, Retail Sales, Housing, And Who Is The Next Fed Head

Key Event This Week: Geopolitics, Retail Sales, Housing, And Who Is The Next Fed Head

After a fast and furious week in earnings, economic news and central bank developments, it’s a quieter week ahead in terms of the calendar, though market…

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2 years ago

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Key Event This Week: Geopolitics, Retail Sales, Housing, And Who Is The Next Fed Head

After a fast and furious week in earnings, economic news and central bank developments, it’s a quieter week ahead in terms of the calendar, though market attention will continue to focus on the question of who might be appointed as the next Fed Chair, as well as the latest inflation statistics from a number of countries, including the UK (Wednesday). As DB's Jim Reid summarizes, there is a reasonable amount of Fedspeak so it’ll be especially interesting to hear those on the transitory side to see if last week’s shocking print has impacting their thinking. Otherwise, geopolitics will be in focus, with today’s virtual meeting between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi, alongside continued speculation about whether the UK might trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol even if tensions have eased a touch in the last few days.

Starting with today’s virtual meeting between President Biden and President Xi, it is set to take place at 7:45 PM Washington time (well past Joe's bedtime), which will be 8:45 AM on Tuesday in Beijing. While both the presidents spoke over the phone twice this year, this is the first time it is being dubbed as a summit. There is some thought that tariff reductions could be on the agenda, especially given current US inflation levels but it might be a bit early for that in any relationship rebuild. We’ll know more in time for tomorrow’s EMR.

Moving onto the rest of the week, there are a few decisions from EM central banks over the week ahead, including Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia (all Thursday). However, the main focus for investors will be the speculation about who might be the next Fed Chair, particularly in light of the news out last week that both incumbent Fed Chair Powell and Governor Brainard had been interviewed for the position. Powell’s current four-year term comes to an end in February, and whoever’s nominated would require senate confirmation for another term. At this point 4, 8 and 12 years ago, the announcement of who’d be nominated had already been made, but we still don’t have a date for when we might get the news. However, it may not be too far away, with President Biden saying in Glasgow on November 2 that it would be “fairly quickly”.

On the data side, there’ll be an increasing amount of hard data out of the US for October, including retail sales, industrial production (both Tuesday) and housing starts (Wednesday). Meanwhile, there’ll also be some important UK data as the Bank of England mulls over their monetary policy settings ahead of their meeting next month. On Tuesday, there’s the latest employment report, and then on Wednesday, we’ll get the latest CPI reading for October.

Turning to politics, it’s worth keeping an eye out for any developments on Brexit, with speculation rising that the UK government could trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Over the last 3 or 4 days the mood music has moved a little towards compromise so we’ll see if this gathers some momentum.

Lastly on the earnings front, it’s the tail end of the season now, but there are still a few major companies left to report. Tomorrow we’ll hear from Walmart and Home Depot, before Wednesday brings reports from Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target. Then on Thursday, we’ll hear from Intuit, Applied Materials and TJX.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 15

  • Data: China October retail sales, industrial production, US November Empire State manufacturing survey
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Haskel speaks

Tuesday November 16

  • Data: Japan tertiary industry index, UK September unemployment, Euro Area second Q3 GDP estimate, US October retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, November NAHB housing market index, Japan September core machine orders (23:50 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Barkin, Bostic, George and Daly speak
  • Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot

Wednesday November 17

  • Data: UK October CPI, US October housing starts, building permits, Canada October CPI
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic speak
  • Earnings: Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target

Thursday November 18

  • Data: US weekly initial jobless claims, October Conference Board leading index, November Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Japan October nationwide CPI (23:30 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank, ECB’s Centeno, and Fed’s Bostic, Evans and Daly speak
  • Earnings: Intuit, Applied Materials, TJX

Friday November 19

  • Data: UK November GfK consumer confidence, October retail sales, Germany October PPI
  • Central Banks: Fed Vice Chair Clarida, Fed’s Waller and BoE’s Pill speak

* * *

Finally, here is Goldman with a focus just on the US, where the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a speech by Vice-Chair Clarida on global monetary policy coordination on Friday.

Monday, November 15

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, November (consensus +21.6, last +19.8)

Tuesday, November 16

  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.8%):  We estimate a 0.5% increase in core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) in October (mom sa). The Census measure is somewhat elevated relative to other high-frequency spending measures, and we believe the sunset of income-support programs weighed on some discretionary retail categories in the month following the strong back-to-school shopping season. We estimate a 1.1% increase in headline retail sales, reflecting rebounding auto sales and higher auto and gas prices.
  • 08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus +1.0%, last +0.4%)
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.8%, last -1.3%); Manufacturing production, October (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.9%, last -0.7%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 76.0%, consensus 75.8%, last 75.2%): We estimate industrial production rose by 1.1% in October, reflecting strength in oil and gas production and motor vehicle output, and a post-Hurricane rebound in areas affected by Ida. We estimate capacity utilization rose by 0.8pp to 76.0%.
  • 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, November (consensus 80, last 80)
  • 12:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter), Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter), and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speak: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a discussion on racism and the economy, hosted by the Minneapolis Fed.
  • 03:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at the Commonwealth Club. Media Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, November 17

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.6%, last -1.6%); Building permits, October (consensus +2.8%, last -7.8%): We estimate housing starts increased by 1.0% in October, reflecting lower permits in September.
  • 09:10 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Treasury Market Conference, hosted by the Treasury Department and the Fed’s Board of Governors. Prepared text is expected.
  • 11:00 AM Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver introductory remarks at a virtual roundtable on the Fed’s Accounting Communication Network, hosted by the Dallas Fed.
  • 11:20 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) and Governor Waller (FOMC voter) speak: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will introduce Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who will discuss stablecoins at the Cleveland Fed’s 2021 Financial Stability Conference. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
  • 12:40 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak to Rostin Behnam (acting chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission) in a fireside chat hosted by the New York Fed.
  • 4:05 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will take part in a moderated Q&A hosted by the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America.
  • 4:10 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will make closing remarks at a virtual conference on community development hosted by the Fed.

Thursday, November 18

8:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the regional outlook at a virtual event hosted by the Metro Atlanta Chamber.

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 13 (GS 265k, consensus 260k, last 267k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 6 (last 2,160k)

We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 265k in the week ended November 13; 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November (GS 23.0, consensus 24.0, last 23.8): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 0.8pt to 23.0 in November, reflecting continued production constraints.

9:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks; New York Fed President John Williams will speak on the transatlantic economic policy responses to the pandemic at an event hosted by the European Commission, the New York Fed, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus 30, last 31)

2:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will take part in a moderated Q&A hosted by the BKD Financial Services Symposium. Audience and media Q&A are expected.

3:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a Fed Listens event about the pandemic recovery and care work.

Friday, November 19

  • 10:45 AM Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Chris Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Financial Stability Club in New York. Prepared text and Q&A are expected.
  • 12:15 PM Fed Vice-Chair Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida will discuss global monetary policy coordination, cooperation, and collaboration at a virtual event hosted by the San Francisco Fed. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: DB, BofA, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/15/2021 - 09:33

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Government

Buried Project Veritas Recording Shows Top Pfizer Scientists Suppressed Concerns Over COVID-19 Boosters, MRNA Tech

Buried Project Veritas Recording Shows Top Pfizer Scientists Suppressed Concerns Over COVID-19 Boosters, MRNA Tech

Submitted by Liam Cosgrove

Former…

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March 12, 2024

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Buried Project Veritas Recording Shows Top Pfizer Scientists Suppressed Concerns Over COVID-19 Boosters, MRNA Tech

Submitted by Liam Cosgrove

Former Project Veritas & O’Keefe Media Group operative and Pfizer formulation analyst scientist Justin Leslie revealed previously unpublished recordings showing Pfizer’s top vaccine researchers discussing major concerns surrounding COVID-19 vaccines. Leslie delivered these recordings to Veritas in late 2021, but they were never published:

Featured in Leslie’s footage is Kanwal Gill, a principal scientist at Pfizer. Gill was weary of MRNA technology given its long research history yet lack of approved commercial products. She called the vaccines “sneaky,” suggesting latent side effects could emerge in time.

Gill goes on to illustrate how the vaccine formulation process was dramatically rushed under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization and adds that profit incentives likely played a role:

"It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that."

Leslie recorded another colleague, Pfizer’s pharmaceutical formulation scientist Ramin Darvari, who raised the since-validated concern that repeat booster intake could damage the cardiovascular system:

None of these claims will be shocking to hear in 2024, but it is telling that high-level Pfizer researchers were discussing these topics in private while the company assured the public of “no serious safety concerns” upon the jab’s release:

Vaccine for Children is a Different Formulation

Leslie sent me a little-known FDA-Pfizer conference — a 7-hour Zoom meeting published in tandem with the approval of the vaccine for 5 – 11 year-olds — during which Pfizer’s vice presidents of vaccine research and development, Nicholas Warne and William Gruber, discussed a last-minute change to the vaccine’s “buffer” — from “PBS” to “Tris” — to improve its shelf life. For about 30 seconds of these 7 hours, Gruber acknowledged that the new formula was NOT the one used in clinical trials (emphasis mine):


“The studies were done using the same volume… but contained the PBS buffer. We obviously had extensive consultations with the FDA and it was determined that the clinical studies were not required because, again, the LNP and the MRNA are the same and the behavior — in terms of reactogenicity and efficacy — are expected to be the same.”

According to Leslie, the tweaked “buffer” dramatically changed the temperature needed for storage: “Before they changed this last step of the formulation, the formula was to be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. After they changed the last step, we kept them at 2 to 8 degrees celsius,” Leslie told me.

The claims are backed up in the referenced video presentation:

I’m no vaccinologist but an 80-degree temperature delta — and a 5x shelf-life in a warmer climate — seems like a significant change that might warrant clinical trials before commercial release.

Despite this information technically being public, there has been virtually no media scrutiny or even coverage — and in fact, most were told the vaccine for children was the same formula but just a smaller dose — which is perhaps due to a combination of the information being buried within a 7-hour jargon-filled presentation and our media being totally dysfunctional.

Bohemian Grove?

Leslie’s 2-hour long documentary on his experience at both Pfizer and O’Keefe’s companies concludes on an interesting note: James O’Keefe attended an outing at the Bohemian Grove.

Leslie offers this photo of James’ Bohemian Grove “GATE” slip as evidence, left on his work desk atop a copy of his book, “American Muckraker”:

My thoughts on the Bohemian Grove: my good friend’s dad was its general manager for several decades. From what I have gathered through that connection, the Bohemian Grove is not some version of the Illuminati, at least not in the institutional sense.

Do powerful elites hangout there? Absolutely. Do they discuss their plans for the world while hanging out there? I’m sure it has happened. Do they have a weird ritual with a giant owl? Yep, Alex Jones showed that to the world.

My perspective is based on conversations with my friend and my belief that his father is not lying to him. I could be wrong and am open to evidence — like if boxer Ryan Garcia decides to produce evidence regarding his rape claims — and I do find it a bit strange the club would invite O’Keefe who is notorious for covertly filming, but Occam’s razor would lead me to believe the club is — as it was under my friend’s dad — run by boomer conservatives the extent of whose politics include disliking wokeness, immigration, and Biden (common subjects of O’Keefe’s work).

Therefore, I don’t find O’Keefe’s visit to the club indicative that he is some sort of Operation Mockingbird asset as Leslie tries to depict (however Mockingbird is a 100% legitimate conspiracy). I have also met James several times and even came close to joining OMG. While I disagreed with James on the significance of many of his stories — finding some to be overhyped and showy — I never doubted his conviction in them.

As for why Leslie’s story was squashed… all my sources told me it was to avoid jail time for Veritas executives.

Feel free to watch Leslie’s full documentary here and decide for yourself.

Fun fact — Justin Leslie was also the operative behind this mega-viral Project Veritas story where Pfizer’s director of R&D claimed the company was privately mutating COVID-19 behind closed doors:

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 13:40

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International

Association of prenatal vitamins and metals with epigenetic aging at birth and in childhood

“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging…

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March 12, 2024

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“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”

Credit: 2024 Bozack et al.

“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”

BUFFALO, NY- March 12, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 4, entitled, “Associations of prenatal one-carbon metabolism nutrients and metals with epigenetic aging biomarkers at birth and in childhood in a US cohort.”

Epigenetic gestational age acceleration (EGAA) at birth and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in childhood may be biomarkers of the intrauterine environment. In this new study, researchers Anne K. Bozack, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Andrea A. Baccarelli, Robert O. Wright, Diane R. Gold, Emily Oken, Marie-France Hivert, and Andres Cardenas from Stanford University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Columbia University, and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai investigated the extent to which first-trimester folate, B12, 5 essential and 7 non-essential metals in maternal circulation are associated with EGAA and EAA in early life. 

“[…] we hypothesized that OCM [one-carbon metabolism] nutrients and essential metals would be positively associated with EGAA and non-essential metals would be negatively associated with EGAA. We also investigated nonlinear associations and associations with mixtures of micronutrients and metals.”

Bohlin EGAA and Horvath pan-tissue and skin and blood EAA were calculated using DNA methylation measured in cord blood (N=351) and mid-childhood blood (N=326; median age = 7.7 years) in the Project Viva pre-birth cohort. A one standard deviation increase in individual essential metals (copper, manganese, and zinc) was associated with 0.94-1.2 weeks lower Horvath EAA at birth, and patterns of exposures identified by exploratory factor analysis suggested that a common source of essential metals was associated with Horvath EAA. The researchers also observed evidence of nonlinear associations of zinc with Bohlin EGAA, magnesium and lead with Horvath EAA, and cesium with skin and blood EAA at birth. Overall, associations at birth did not persist in mid-childhood; however, arsenic was associated with greater EAA at birth and in childhood. 

“Prenatal metals, including essential metals and arsenic, are associated with epigenetic aging in early life, which might be associated with future health.”

 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205602 

Corresponding Author: Andres Cardenas

Corresponding Email: andres.cardenas@stanford.edu 

Keywords: epigenetic age acceleration, metals, folate, B12, prenatal exposures

Click here to sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article.

 

About Aging:

Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Facebook
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  • YouTube
  • LinkedIn
  • Reddit
  • Pinterest
  • Spotify, and available wherever you listen to podcasts

 

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

 

Aging (Aging-US) Journal Office

6666 E. Quaker Str., Suite 1B

Orchard Park, NY 14127

Phone: 1-800-922-0957, option 1

###

Journal

Aging-US

DOI

10.18632/aging.205602

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Associations of prenatal one-carbon metabolism nutrients and metals with epigenetic aging biomarkers at birth and in childhood in a US cohort

Article Publication Date

26-Feb-2024

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International

A beginner’s guide to the taxes you’ll hear about this election season

Everything you need to know about income tax, national insurance and more.

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March 12, 2024

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Cast Of Thousands/Shutterstock

National insurance, income tax, VAT, capital gains tax, inheritance tax… it’s easy to get confused about the many different ways we contribute to the cost of running the country. The budget announcement is the key time each year when the government shares its financial plans with us all, and announces changes that may make a tangible difference to what you pay.

But you’ll likely be hearing a lot more about taxes in the coming months – promises to cut or raise them are an easy win (or lose) for politicians in an election year. We may even get at least one “mini-budget”.

If you’ve recently entered the workforce or the housing market, you may still be wrapping your mind around all of these terms. Here is what you need to know about the different types of taxes and how they affect you.

The UK broadly uses three ways to collect tax:

1. When you earn money

If you are an employee or own a business, taxes are deducted from your salary or profits you make. For most people, this happens in two ways: income tax, and national insurance contributions (or NICs).

If you are self-employed, you will have to pay your taxes via an annual tax return assessment. You might also have to pay taxes this way for interest you earn on savings, dividends (distribution of profits from a company or shares you own) received and most other forms of income not taxed before you get it.

Around two-thirds of taxes collected come from people’s or business’ incomes in the UK.

2. When you spend money

VAT and excise duties are taxes on most goods and services you buy, with some exceptions like books and children’s clothing. About 20% of the total tax collected is VAT.

3. Taxes on wealth and assets

These are mainly taxes on the money you earn if you sell assets (like property or stocks) for more than you bought them for, or when you pass on assets in an inheritance. In the latter case in the UK, the recipient doesn’t pay this, it is the estate paying it out that must cover this if due. These taxes contribute only about 3% to the total tax collected.

You also likely have to pay council tax, which is set by the council you live in based on the value of your house or flat. It is paid by the user of the property, no matter if you own or rent. If you are a full-time student or on some apprenticeship schemes, you may get a deduction or not have to pay council tax at all.

Quarter life, a series by The Conversation

This article is part of Quarter Life, a series about issues affecting those of us in our 20s and 30s. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.

You may be interested in:

If you get your financial advice on social media, watch out for misinformation

Future graduates will pay more in student loan repayments – and the poorest will be worst affected

Selling on Vinted, Etsy or eBay? Here’s what you need to know about paying tax

Put together, these totalled almost £790 billion in 2022-23, which the government spends on public services such as the NHS, schools and social care. The government collects taxes from all sources and sets its spending plans accordingly, borrowing to make up any difference between the two.

Income tax

The amount of income tax you pay is determined by where your income sits in a series of “bands” set by the government. Almost everyone is entitled to a “personal allowance”, currently £12,570, which you can earn without needing to pay any income tax.

You then pay 20% in tax on each pound of income you earn (across all sources) from £12,570-£50,270. You pay 40% on each extra pound up to £125,140 and 45% over this. If you earn more than £100,000, the personal allowance (amount of untaxed income) starts to decrease.

If you are self-employed, the same rates apply to you. You just don’t have an employer to take this off your salary each month. Instead, you have to make sure you have enough money at the end of the year to pay this directly to the government.

Read more: Taxes aren't just about money – they shape how we think about each other

The government can increase the threshold limits to adjust for inflation. This tries to ensure any wage rise you get in response to higher prices doesn’t lead to you having to pay a higher tax rate. However, the government announced in 2021 that they would freeze these thresholds until 2026 (extended now to 2028), arguing that it would help repay the costs of the pandemic.

Given wages are now rising for many to help with the cost of living crisis, this means many people will pay more income tax this coming year than they did before. This is sometimes referred to as “fiscal drag” – where lower earners are “dragged” into paying higher tax rates, or being taxed on more of their income.

National insurance

National insurance contributions (NICs) are a second “tax” you pay on your income – or to be precise, on your earned income (your salary). You don’t pay this on some forms of income, including savings or dividends, and you also don’t pay it once you reach state retirement age (currently 66).

While Jeremy Hunt, the current chancellor of the exchequer, didn’t adjust income tax meaningfully in this year’s budget, he did announce a cut to NICs. This was a surprise to many, as we had already seen rates fall from 12% to 10% on incomes higher than £242/week in January. It will now fall again to 8% from April.

Read more: Budget 2024: experts explain what it means for taxpayers, businesses, borrowers and the NHS

While this is charged separately to income tax, in reality it all just goes into one pot with other taxes. Some, including the chancellor, say it is time to merge these two deductions and make this simpler for everyone. In his budget speech this year, Hunt said he’d like to see this tax go entirely. He thinks this isn’t fair on those who have to pay it, as it is only charged on some forms of income and on some workers.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for this to happen however, and even if it did, there are huge sums linked to NICs (nearly £180bn last year) so it would almost certainly have to be collected from elsewhere (such as via an increase in income taxes, or a lot more borrowing) to make sure the government could still balance its books.

A young black man sits at a home office desk with his feet up, looking at a mobile phone
Do you know how much tax you pay? Alex from the Rock/Shutterstock

Other taxes

There are likely to be further tweaks to the UK’s tax system soon, perhaps by the current government before the election – and almost certainly if there is a change of government.

Wealth taxes may be in line for a change. In the budget, the chancellor reduced capital gains taxes on sales of assets such as second properties (from 28% to 24%). These types of taxes provide only a limited amount of money to the government, as quite high thresholds apply for inheritance tax (up to £1 million if you are passing on a family home).

There are calls from many quarters though to look again at these types of taxes. Wealth inequality (the differences between total wealth held by the richest compared to the poorest) in the UK is very high (much higher than income inequality) and rising.

But how to do this effectively is a matter of much debate. A recent study suggested a one-off tax on total wealth held over a certain threshold might work. But wealth taxes are challenging to make work in practice, and both main political parties have already said this isn’t an option they are considering currently.

Andy Lymer and his colleagues at the Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing at Aston University currently or have recently received funding for their research work from a variety of funding bodies including the UK's Money and Pension Service, the Aviva Foundation, Fair4All Finance, NEST Insight, the Gambling Commission, Vivid Housing and the ESRC, amongst others.

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