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Key Developments are Shaping Bullish Sentiment

Halfway through the month of January, the market landscape is much more constructive, even though the last half of December saw a flood of selling pressure…

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Halfway through the month of January, the market landscape is much more constructive, even though the last half of December saw a flood of selling pressure that was a huge disappointment to what was a down year for the major averages. 2023 is off to a strong start, with the S&P higher by 4.15% as of last Friday’s close. The Dow is ahead by 3.49%, the Nasdaq up 5.85% and the Russell 2000 is the big winner — up by 7.14%.

There are several key developments contributing to the sudden change in sentiment and stock performance. Here are some of the catalysts for an improving outlook:

2023 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA): Based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index, there will be an 8.7 percent rise in the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients and for most retired pay and Survivor Benefit Plan annuities effective December 1, 2022. Retirees will see the change in their December 30, 2022, payment and annuitants in their January 3, 2023, payment. The increase was set right at the peak of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and will be a big net positive to retirees with the rate of inflation falling fast. It’s the largest increase since 1981, which saw an hike of 11.2% in the COLA.

Rate of Inflation Moving Lower: Total CPI declined 0.1% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%), paced by a 9.4% m/m decline in the gasoline index. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month as expected. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 6.5% — the smallest increase since October 2021 — versus 7.1% in November. Core CPI was up 5.7% versus 6.0% in November.

Dollar Weakness Reflects Risk-On Sentiment – The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) contains six component currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. The DXY has broken key technical levels and is now in a protracted downtrend, as investors that were seeking super safe havens in 2022 are taking on more risk in stocks and other currencies.

It’s interesting to see that the DXY was breaking down in mid-November just as the year-end selling of equities was accelerating. The steep correction in the dollar is a boon to multinational corporations that should show up during the current fourth-quarter earnings season. What was a major Forex headwind (strong dollar) is now a solid tailwind (weak dollar). This fact looks likely to extend the selloff in the near term.

Housing Market Is Resilient: The market for available homes remains undersupplied, even as mortgage rates hit 20-year highs. Housing listings are still down 29% nationwide in the five years ending in October, according to Realtor.com data. Policy experts and economists estimate that the nation’s total housing shortage ranges from 1 to 5 million homes — a shocking number during a time of soaring mortgage rates.

Based on the Fed’s likelihood to hike interest rates at least once more and then pause, one can argue that mortgage rates should land at around 5.5% for the 30-year fixed rate in late 2023.

Margin Debt Is Way Down: After peaking at more than $1 trillion in December 2021, when the market hit historic highs. This is a healthy sign in that investors have solid buying power. But with margin rates up considerably, investors are likely to use margin debt more for short-term trading purposes, as opposed to buy-and-hold strategies when compared to when interest rates were super low and the bull market was in full motion.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margin-debt.php

High Yield Market Shows Bullish Price Action – The largest Junk Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), with $18.49 billion in assets. In the world of investing, bonds trade out of fear and stocks trade out of greed. High-yield bonds have been in rally mode and piercing an overhead technical level as of last week on pretty good volume.

Lastly, the S&P 500 closed barely above its 200-day moving average. This fact is getting a lot of technical chatter, but the prior four attempts to break out failed. All of this makes this attempt off of a higher low somewhat more encouraging. I think it will take a wave of companies providing assurance about business conditions for the current quarter and further out to see a clean break above this key trend line. If this succeeds, this action will send the bears back to their caves.

Coming into this week, most sectors and stocks are technically overbought on a short-term basis. There were impressive upside moves in the small-caps, airlines, Bitcoin, gold and high-yield debt, all of which reflect a 180-degree turn in the risk profile of market participants, who are buying into the soft-landing narrative hand over fist.

There is definitely a growing amount of data to get more optimistic about, but the Fed isn’t done raising rates, the yield curve remains very inverted and personal savings are at a pre-pandemic low. The latest data show Americans are saving just 2.3%, or $2.30 of every $100 they earn after paying taxes, down from 7.5% as recently as December 2021. Historically, that’s very low. From 2015 to 2019, for example, this rate averaged around 7.6%.

As of the third quarter of 2022, Americans hold $925 billion in credit card debt, which is a rise of $38 billion since Q2 2022. The Federal Reserve of New York says this is a 15% year-over-year rise — the biggest jump we’ve seen in more than 20 years. How this will all play out next month will be intriguing, given the U.S. is a consumer-driven economy. But for now, unemployment is at 3.5%, inflation is coming under control and the market is voting with both feet that a recession is going to be averted. Now, its up to earnings season to keep the party going.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: We are having our Eagle Virtual Trading Event on Thursday, Jan. 19. If you haven’t signed up for this yet, there’s still time. Just click here now to sign up for free. Believe me, you won’t want to miss this online event — as we bring together all of Eagle’s investment experts at the same time to reveal our Top 6 Picks for 2023. Reserve your seat now by clicking here.

The post Key Developments are Shaping Bullish Sentiment appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Lower mortgage rates fueling existing home sales

To understand why we had such a beat in sales, you only need to go back to Nov. 9, when mortgage rates started to fall from 7.37% to 5.99%.

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Existing home sales had a huge beat of estimates on Tuesday. This wasn’t shocking for people who follow how I track housing data. To understand why we had such a beat in sales, you only need to go back to Nov. 9, when mortgage rates started to fall from 7.37% to 5.99%.

During November, December and January, purchase application data trended positive, meaning we had many weeks of better-looking data. The weekly growth in purchase application data during those months stabilized housing sales to a historically low level.

For many years I have talked about how rare it is that existing home sales trend below 4 million. That is why the historic collapse in demand in 2022 was one for the record books. We understood why sales collapsed during COVID-19. However, that was primarily due to behavior changes, which meant sales were poised to return higher once behavior returned to normal.

In 2022, it was all about affordability as mortgage rates had a historical rise. Many people just didn’t want to sell their homes and move with a much higher total cost for housing, while first-time homebuyers had to deal with affordability issues.



Even though mortgage rates were falling in November and December, positive purchase application data takes 30-90 days to hit the sales data. So, as sales collapsed from 6.5 million to 4 million in the monthly sales data, it set a low bar for sales to grow. This is something I talked about yesterday on CNBC, to take this home sale in context to what happened before it. 

Because housing data and all economics are so violent lately, we created the weekly Housing Market Tracker, which is designed to look forward, not backward.

From NAR: Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – vaulted 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February. Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022).




As we can see in the chart above, the bounce is very noticeable, but this is different than the COVID-19 lows and massive rebound in sales. Mortgage rates spiked from 5.99% to 7.10% this year, and that produced one month of negative forward-looking purchase application data, which takes about 30-90 days to hit the sales data.

So this report is too old and slow, but if you follow the tracker, you’re not slow. This is the wild housing action I have talked about for some time and why the Housing Market Tracker becomes helpful in understanding this data.

The last two weeks have had positive purchase application data as mortgage rates fell from 7.10% down to 6.55%; tomorrow, we will see if we can make a third positive week. One thing to remember about purchase application data since Nov. 9, 2022 is that it’s had a lot more positive data than harmful data. 

However, the one-month decline in purchase application data did bring us back to levels last seen in 1995 recently. So, the bar is so low we can trip over.



One of the reasons I took off the savagely unhealthy housing market label was that the days on the market are now above 30 days. I am not endorsing, nor will I ever, a housing market that has days on the market at teenager levels. A teenager level means one of two bad things are happening:

1. We have a massive credit boom in housing which will blow up in time because demand is booming, similar to the run-up in the housing bubble years.

2. We simply don’t have enough products for homebuyers, creating forced bidding in a low-inventory environment. 

Guess which one we had post 2020? Look at the purchase application data above — we never had a credit boom. Look at the Inventory data below. Even with the collapse in home sales and the first real rebound, total active listings are still below 1 million.

From NAR: Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January & up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February ’22. #NAREHS



However, with that said, the one data line that I love, love, love, the days on the market, is over 30 days again, and no longer a teenager like last year, when the housing market was savagely unhealthy.

From NAR: First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in January; Individual investors purchased 18% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions; Distressed sales represented 2% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 34 days.



Today’s existing home sales report was good: we saw a bounce in sales, as to be expected, and the days on the market are still over 30 days. When the Federal Reserve talks about a housing reset, they’re saying they did not like the bidding wars they saw last year, so the fact that price growth looks nothing like it was a year ago is a good thing.

Also, the days on market are on a level they might feel more comfortable in. And, in this report, we saw no signs of forced selling. I’ve always believed we would never see the forced selling we saw from 2005-2008, which was the worst part of the housing bubble crash years. The Federal Reserve also believes this to be the case because of the better credit standards we have in place since 2010. 

Case in point, the MBA‘s recent forbearance data shows that instead of forbearance skyrocketing higher, it’s collapsed. Remember, if you see a forbearance crash bro, hug them, they need it.

Today’s existing home sales report is backward looking as purchase application data did take a hit this year when mortgage rates spiked up to 7.10%. We all can agree now that even with a massive collapse in sales, the inventory data didn’t explode higher like many have predicted for over a decade now.

I have stressed that to understand the housing market, you need to understand how credit channels work post-2010. The 2005 bankruptcy reform laws and 2010 QM laws changed the landscape for housing economics in a way that even today I don’t believe people understand.

However, the housing market took its biggest shot ever in terms of affordability in 2022 and so far in 2023, and the American homeowner didn’t panic once. Even though this data is old, it shows the solid footing homeowners in America have, and how badly wrong the extremely bearish people in this country were about the state of the financial condition of the American homeowner.

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SVB contagion: Australia purportedly asks banks to report on crypto

Australia’s prudential regulator has purportedly told banks to improve reporting on crypto assets and provide daily updates.
Australia’s…

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Australia’s prudential regulator has purportedly told banks to improve reporting on crypto assets and provide daily updates.

Australia’s prudential regulator has purportedly asked local banks to report on cryptocurrency transactions amid the ongoing contagion of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has started requesting banks to declare their exposures to startups and crypto-related companies, the Australian Financial Review reported on March 21.

The regulator has ordered banks to improve their reporting on crypto assets and provide daily updates to the APRA, the Financial Review notes, citing three people familiar with the matter. The agency is aiming to obtain more information and insight into banking exposures into crypto as well as associated risks, the sources said.

The new measures are apparently part of the APRA’s increased supervision of the banking sector in the aftermath of recent massive collapses in the global banking system. On March 19, UBS Group agreed to buy its ailing competitor Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion after the latter collapsed over the weekend. The takeover became one of the latest failures in the banking industry following the collapses of SVB and Silvergate.

Barrenjoey analyst Jonathan Mott reportedly told clients in a note that the situation “remains stable” for Australian banks but warned confidence could be quickly disrupted, putting pressure on bank margins.

Related: Silvergate, SBV collapse ‘definitely good’ for Bitcoin, Trezor exec says

“Our channel checks indicate deposits are not being withdrawn from smaller institutions in any size, and capital and liquidity buffers are strong,” Mott said, adding:

“But this is a crisis of confidence and credit spreads and cost of capital will continue to rise. At a minimum, this will add to the margin pressure the banks are facing, while credit quality will continue to deteriorate.”

The news comes soon after the Australian Banking Association launched a cost of living inquiry to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions on Australians. The inquiry followed an analysis of the rising inflation suggesting that more than 186 banks in the United States are at risk of a similar shutdown if depositors decide to withdraw all funds.

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Delta Move Is Bad News For Southwest, United Airlines Passengers

Passengers won’t be happy about this, but there’s nothing they can do about it.

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Passengers won't be happy about this, but there's nothing they can do about it.

Airfare prices move up and down based on two major things -- passenger demand and the cost of actually flying the plane. In recent months, with covid rules and mask mandates a thing of the past, demand has been very heavy.

Domestic air travel traffic for 2022 rose 10.9% compared to the prior year. The nation's air traffic in 2022 was at 79.6% of the full-year 2019 level. December 2022 domestic traffic was up 2.6% over the year-earlier period and was at 79.9% of December 2019 traffic, according to The International Air Transport Association (IATA).

“The industry left 2022 in far stronger shape than it entered, as most governments lifted COVID-19 travel restrictions during the year and people took advantage of the restoration of their freedom to travel. This momentum is expected to continue in the New Year,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.

And, while that's not a full recovery to 2019 levels, overall capacity has also not recovered. Total airline seats available actually sits "around 18% below the 2019 level," according to a report from industry analyst OAG.

So, basically, the drop in passengers equals the drop in capacity meaning that planes are flying full. That's one half of the equation that keeps airfare prices high and the second one looks bad for anyone planning to fly in the coming years.

Image source: Getty Images.

Airlines Face One Key Rising Cost

While airlines face some variable costs like fuel, they also must account for fixed costs when setting airfares. Personnel are a major piece of that and the pandemic has accelerated a pilot shortage. That has given the unions that represent pilots the upper hand when it comes to making deals with the airlines.

The first domino in that process fell when Delta Airlines (DAL) - Get Free Report pilots agreed to a contract in early March that gave them an immediate 18% increase with a total of a 34% raise over the four-year term of the deal.

"The Delta contract is now the industry standard, and we expect United to also offer their pilots a similar contract," investment analyst Helane Becker of Cowen wrote in a March 10 commentary, Travel Weekly reported.

US airfare prices have been climbing. They were 8.3% above pre-pandemic levels in February, according to Consumer Price Index, but they're actually below historical highs.

Southwest and United Airlines Pilots Are Next

Airlines have very little negotiating power when it comes to pilots. You can't fly a plane without pilots and the overall shortage of qualified people to fill those roles means that, within reason, United (UAL) - Get Free Report and Southwest Airlines  (LUV) - Get Free Report, both of which are negotiating new deals with their pilot unions, more or less have to equal (or improve on) the Delta deal.

The actual specifics don't matter much to consumers, but the takeaway is that the cost of hiring pilots is about to go up in a very meaningful way at both United and Southwest. That will create a situation where all major U.S. airlines have a higher cost basis going forward.

Lower fuel prices could offset that somewhat, but raises are not going to be unique to pilots. Southwest also has to make a deal with its flight attendants and, although they don't have the same leverage as the pilots, they have taken a hard line.   

The union, which represents Southwest’s 18,000 flight attendants, has been working without a contract for four years. It shared a statement on its Facebook page detailing its position Feb. 20.

"TWU Local 556 believes strongly in making this airline successful and is working to ensure this company we love isn’t run into the ground by leadership more concerned about shareholders than about workers and customers. Management’s methodology of choosing profits at the expense of the operation and its workforce has to change, because the flying public is also tired of the empty apologies that flight attendants have endured for years."

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