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July Payrolls Smash Expectations Soaring To 528K, Wages Come In Red Hot As Unemployment Rate Drops

July Payrolls Smash Expectations Soaring To 528K, Wages Come In Red Hot As Unemployment Rate Drops

We are now well and truly in bizarro world.

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July Payrolls Smash Expectations Soaring To 528K, Wages Come In Red Hot As Unemployment Rate Drops

We are now well and truly in bizarro world.

In a time when the US is in a technical recession, and when tech companies are mass laying off thousands of people, moments ago the BLS reported that in July the US added a whopping 528K jobs, more than double the 250K expected, up solidly from last month's upward revised 398K (up from 372K) and the highest since February's 714K!

The number means that all the post-covid job losses have now been recovered.

Just how ridiculous was the last monthly cooking of the books by the BLS? So ridiculous that the reported number was a 6 sigma beat to expectations:

One caveat: for the 4th month in a row, the household survey came in far worse than the Establishment survey, and showed a far more modest gain in July employment, at just 179,000 jobs created - notably fewer than the payroll report, but a lot stronger than the 315,000 drop for June.

Reading between the lines, there was 471,000 new private payroll jobs added, more than double the 230k estimates. Not surprisingly, the bulk of new jobs came from the service sector.

But not only did July blow away expectations, but both previous months were revised higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from +384,000 to +386,000, and the change for June was revised up by 26,000, from +372,000 to +398,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 higher than previously reported.

The unemployment rate also declined, sliding to 3.5%, from 3.6%, and below the 3.6% estimate as the number of unemployed persons edged down to 5.7 million. These measures have returned to their levels in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.1 percent) and Whites (3.1 percent) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.2 percent), teenagers (11.5 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics (3.9 percent) showed little change over the month.

The participation rate declined again from 62.2% to 62.1%, as the number of people in the job market -- either working or looking for work -- declined again last month. What the Fed really wants is to see people flocking back in, driving up the unemployment rate and easing pressure on wages. Instead what we are seeing is people leaving the job market and employers fighting to grab those that remain, luring them with higher wages.

It wasn't just payrolls that smashed expectations however, as wages also came in red hot: July Average Hourly Earnings rose 5.2% Y/Y, smashing expectations of 4.9% and increased 0.5% M/M; also beating estimates of 0.3%.

Additionally, the Average workweek was 34.6 hours the fifth month in a row, beating expectations of a decline to 34.5. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees held at 40.4 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained unchanged at 34.0 hours.

That said, once again there was a stark divergence between the Establishment (+528K) and the Household Survey (+179K). In fact, as shown below, according to the Household survey there has been no jobs growth since March, while according to the Establishment survey the US has added 700K jobs!

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Rates Strategist Ira Jersey, said “It’s hard to see how the yield curve doesn’t invert further as market will have to re-evaluate the Fed’s reaction to a labor market being as strong as it is. Regardless of a 50 vs. 75 in September, we think the market has to increase the terminal rate more than is priced, up to over 4% at least."

Bloomberg commentator Ven Ram echoed the sentiment, writing that "this is a phenomenally strong jobs report, way stronger than forecast and more than the average payrolls expansion for the year through June. This will increase chatter for a 75-bp move from the Fed, and the reaction should be along those lines."

Needless to say, and as we previewed, this jobs number which came in well above all sellside expectations, will surely boost expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, because as Bloomberg notes, "this is not at all what the Fed wanted to see. The job market if anything is getting even hotter, not cooling." The only thing that could reverse the narrative is if next week's CPI print comes in far below expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/05/2022 - 08:35

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Tesla rival Polestar reveals production plans for electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

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35 mins ago

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September 28, 2023

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Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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SEC delays spot Bitcoin ETF decision for BlackRock, Invesco and Bitwise

Invesco, Bitwise and Valkyrie were also hit with delays by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The United States Securities…

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36 mins ago

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September 28, 2023

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Invesco, Bitwise and Valkyrie were also hit with delays by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed its decision on several proposals for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including BlackRock, ahead of an anticipated government shutdown.

The spot Bitcoin ETF applications of Invesco, Bitwise and Valkyrie were also delayed by the SEC, according to separate Sept. 28 filings, while Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is expecting the applications from Fidelity, VanEck and WidsomTree to also be pushed back by the securities regulator.

Seyffart expected the delays due to a U.S. government “shutdown” potentially taking place on Oct. 1.

Both chambers of Congress — the House and Senate — haven’t agreed on various funding bills to finance government operations, which has put the short-term future of the U.S. government in jeopardy.

Congress needs to pass 12 separate full-year funding bills by Oct. 1 to avoid a shutdown.

The latest delays came two weeks earlier than the scheduled second deadline date for many applicants, many of whom were expecting to hear from the securities regulator by Oct. 16–19.

The SEC delayed a bundle of spot Bitcoin ETF applicants in early September, when the first deadline was approaching.

Meanwhile, the third set of deadlines for the seven firms is around mid-January, and they could also be delayed. The SEC will have to make a final decision by mid-March at the very latest.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs or not, don’t expect a ‘sexy’ crypto bull run — Concordium founder

In late August, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated that the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the end of 2023 had increased to 75% (from an earlier 65%).

He cited the unanimity and decisiveness at which the U.S. Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in Grayscale’s court win over the SEC as the main reason behind the odds increasing.

Balchunas further raised those odds to 95% by the end of 2024.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

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International

Polestar plans production date for its Tesla rival electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

Published

1 hour ago

on

September 28, 2023

By

Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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