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“It’s Global Govt Re-Engineering” – Austin Fitts Warns Fed Actions Are “100% Power Politics… It’s A War”

"It’s Global Govt Re-Engineering" – Austin Fitts Warns Fed Actions Are "100% Power Politics… It’s A War"

 Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Catherine…

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"It's Global Govt Re-Engineering" - Austin Fitts Warns Fed Actions Are "100% Power Politics... It's A War"

 Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says what is coming for the economy is pain... and lots of it. 

CAF explains, “We are either in a major correction or we are going to go into a bear (market), and a lot of it depends on many different politics..."

"If you look at the money being pumped out... on climate change, on green energy, environment and all theses and all these different new sort of scams, it depends on how they inject money.  It’s either a major correction or it could turn into a bear (market).  There is no way to tell because it is purely political.”

Various Fed presidents are repeatedly saying the central bank is going to continue raising interest rates.  Why?  CAF says,

I think they are going to keep raising interest rates.  If you are Federal Reserve, you are playing a global game, and what you have to do is protect the reserve currency status. 

It looks like to me they have decided that all the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) members need to be in the dollar channel.  They are doing everything they can to collapse the market share of the euro and then move that into the dollar syndicate. 

I think they have to keep driving the dollar up.  The U.S dollar index is up to 113, and at one point it was at 114.  One analyst said it was going to 120.  They have the entire frontier market and the emerging markets in a bear trap, and that is very significant power. 

If you are going to go into the woods and shoot the bear, you can’t wound the bear, you have to kill the bear. 

So, I think the Fed is going to keep doing this for some time now.  They don’t mind, as you learned from the pandemic, collapsing the small business side of the economy or collapsing the middle-class...

They are implementing the ‘Going Direct Reset.’ 

They are doing a currency reset. 

What you are looking at is a fundamental reengineering of the governance system on planet Earth. 

Most of the benefits in the dollar system come from the benefits of having the reserve currency and being able to swap money you print out of thin air for real labor and real commodities worldwide. 

That’s an enormous benefit, and they are going to protect that benefit.  If they don’t protect that benefit, they run the risk of everybody moving out of the channel.  This is what the Chinese and Russians are trying to do. 

They are trying to move out of the dollar channel and trying to create economic resiliency and trade outside the channel.  What the Fed is trying to do and the dollar syndicate is trying to do is protect that channel...

It’s global government reengineering.  It’s 100% power politics, and it’s a war.”

In short, the Fed will defend the dollar and the world reserve currency status no matter how hard the stock market crashes, no matter how much the economy crashes, no matter how much the bond market crashes and no matter how much the housing market crashes.

In closing, CAF says,

“Stop helping them... Don’t bank at the big banks... use cash whenever you can, and pray...

This is first and foremost a spiritual war, and prayer is the best navigation tool possible.  With this level of uncertainty and change, there is no way there is enough experts to help you and enough time to listen to them all.  You have to focus on what is important.  You have to decide are you here to be free or are you here to be a slave?  There is no more middle of the road.  There are two sides, one leads to freedom and one leads to slavery.  You have to choose.

There is much more in the 58-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts. (10.15.22)

*  *  *

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There is much free information on Solari.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/16/2022 - 12:30

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Futures Rise To New Record High Ahead Of Data Deluge

Futures Rise To New Record High Ahead Of Data Deluge

Another day, another all time high on deck. US equity futures are higher ahead of today’s…

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Futures Rise To New Record High Ahead Of Data Deluge

Another day, another all time high on deck. US equity futures are higher ahead of today’s PPI / Retail sales data, which we expect to be a big miss to expectations based on real-time card spending data. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were 0.3% higher trading around 5,250 while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, led by tech with the Mag7 stocks higher premarket (ex-NVDA, TSLA) as semis outperform pre-market. Europe trades mainly higher led by France while Asia is mixed on light overnight news. The yield curve is seeing some bear steepening with 10Y yield unchanged at 4.19%; keep an eye on the backend of the curve as we approach next week’s BOJ. The USD is stronger and commodities are mixed: energy is leading as WTI crude futures rise higher by almost 1% on the day after IEA projected a supply deficit for the rest of 2024.  Today’s macro data focus includes Retail Sales (consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%), PPI (cons +0.2%, last +0.5% core PPI m/m) and Jobless Claims (exp. 218k, last 217k).

In premarket trading, Netflix and Meta Platforms rose with analysts flagging potential benefits to social-media and streaming companies from legislation targeting TikTok. Dollar General jumped after an upbeat forecast. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Citigroup shares rise 1.9% as Goldman Sachs raised the recommendation on the lender to buy from neutral. The broker sees “a realistic path” to higher returns and “compelling valuation support.”
  • Hello Group the parent firm of Chinese dating apps Momo and Tantan, trades 16% lower after reporting a drop in paying users for both apps.
  • Fisker shares plunge 38% after the Wall Street Journal reported the electric-vehicle startup has hired advisers to assist with a possible bankruptcy filing.
  • Robinhood shares rise 12% after the online brokerage platform reported positive operating data in February including rising assets under custody and surging trading volume.
  • SentinelOne shares drop 11% after the security software company gave a full-year revenue forecast that was weaker than expected at the midpoint of the range.
  • Turtle Beach shares soar 27% after the sound technology company reported its fourth-quarter results and said it would buy PDP at an enterprise value of $118 million.
  • UiPath shares rise 7.0% after the automation software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
  • Under Armour shares are down 7.2% after the company announced the return of Kevin Plank as chief executive officer, replacing Stephanie Linnartz, who was in the role for just over a year. Jefferies said the surprise change in leadership suggests uncertainty on the strategic direction of the sportswear maker.
  • Weibo ADRs climb 5.5% after the Chinese social media company declared its second special cash dividend of $200m in a year, offsetting adjusted earnings and active users that missed analyst expectations.

While traders have been trimming bets on deep and imminent rate cuts, that hasn’t dampened enthusiasm for stocks, with the S&P 500 setting new records in its longest stretch since 2018 without a decline of at least 2%, according to Bloomberg data. Today's PPI data will be the final inflation report before next week’s Fed policy meeting. Officials are expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but the question is when they’ll start lowering borrowing costs.

We’ve just upgraded our price target on the S&P 500, European stocks and Japanese equities because underlying data continues to be pretty resilient,” said Grace Peters, head of global investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, who sees the US benchmark reaching 5,600 in a bull-case scenario. “The most realistic bull case is that corporate profits are stronger than expected.”

In politics, Donald Trump floated hedge fund titan John Paulson as possible Treasury secretary if he wins the November presidential election, and has held a series of meetings with other potential cabinet picks. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it’s “unlikely” that market interest rates will return to levels that prevailed before the Covid-19 pandemic.

ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras recommended two interest-rate cuts before the August summer break, and another two by the end of the year. Money markets maintained wagers on the scope for rate cuts this year, with the first quarter-point move seen by June, followed by two more and a 70% chance of a fourth. Bunds trimmed a small decline and the euro was steady.

Sentiment remained fragile in Chinese markets despite officials pledging central government funds to encourage consumers and businesses to replace old equipment and goods. Shares linked to Asian copper miners advanced after the metal jumped to an 11-month high on likely capacity cuts at Chinese smelters.

European stocks rose for a third day as Stoxx 600 touches a fresh record even as tech firms extend their decline for a second session. The mood points to a sector rotation in the background as retail, real estate and consumer products lead this month’s Stoxx 600 gains. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

  • Encavis gains as much as 28% and trades slightly below the value of KKR’s recommended cash offer for the renewable-energy producer. Analysts see a high likelihood of deal completion, even as the offer price is below their respective PTs.
  • Trainline shares jump as much as 12%, reaching the highest intraday since September 2022, after the train-ticketing platform reported full-year net ticket sales that topped estimates. Morgan Stanley highlighted the company’s performance in the UK, which was a main driver of the beat to net ticket sales.
  • K+S shares rise as much as 9% after the German agricultural chemicals firm posted results which Citi called “encouraging” and guidance that showed scope for further earnings growth. Analysts pointed to the cash flow outlook as bringing some relief.
  • NEL shares rise as much as 5.9% after the Norwegian hydrogen technology firm received $84 million of funding from the State of Michigan and the US Department of Energy, which RBC said confirms the company as a key green hydrogen player.
  • IG Group rises as much as 4.9% after the UK trading platform reported third-quarter earnings which RBC said were better-than-expected and showed resilient trading revenues, client numbers and cash balances.
  • RWE gains as much as 3.7% after the German utility reiterated its guidance, which Morgan Stanley said will trigger renewed interest in the stock. The company also expects to raise its dividend for the current fiscal year.
  • OSB Group shares slump as much as 30%, the biggest drop since July, as the British banking group’s weaker-than-expected guidance for net interest margin overshadowed a full-year results beat.
  • Basic-Fit drops as much as 16% as the health and fitness club operator’s growth plans disappoint.
  • Lanxess shares fall as much as 11% after the German specialty chemicals firm’s 2023 sales and margins fell short of estimates, while its first-quarter adjusted Ebitda outlook also undershot consensus.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, with the regional gauge on track for its first weekly drop in two months, weighed down by losses in Chinese technology shares and Australian banks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.2% amid choppy trading. Financial names including Westpac Banking and ANZ were among the biggest drags on the index after Macquarie downgraded the Australian lenders. Copper miners were a bright spot in the region after the metal jumped to an 11-month high. BHP was the top positive contributor to the Asian gauge as Citigroup raised the stock to buy.

Equities in mainland China and Hong Kong ended lower, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling more than 1% despite officials pledging central government funds to encourage consumers and businesses to replace old equipment and goods. Shares linked to Asian copper miners advanced after the metal jumped to an 11-month high on likely capacity cuts at Chinese smelters. The US House of Representatives passed a bill to ban TikTok in the country unless its Chinese owner sells the video-sharing app.

In FX, bloomberg dollar spot index gained 0.1% to erase Wednesday’s decline. The yen reversed an initial gain as Treasury yields turned higher and ahead of Rengo wage outcomes on Friday, which may affect the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. SEK and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and GBP outperform.

In rates, treasuries were narrowly mixed after yields edged to new weekly highs ahead of economic data slate including PPI and retail sales. US yields slightly richer from front-end out to belly of the curve and slightly cheaper across long-end, steepening 2s10s by almost 1bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.19% with gilts outperforming by 1.2bp in the sector. Gilts outperform slightly, and core European rates drew support from comments by ECB’s Yannis Stournaras, who recommended two interest-rate cuts before the summer break in August. S&P 500 futures advance toward last week’s all-time high and WTI crude oil futures top $80/bbl; peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 2.9bps to 119.8bps amid dovish remarks from ECB speakers. German, gilt and Treasury 10-year yields are steady as traders await US producer-price data, which comes after a sticky consumer reading earlier this week.

In commodities, crude oil added to the biggest gain in about five weeks after the International Energy Agency said global oil markets face a supply deficit throughout 2024 as OPEC+ looks set to continue output cuts. Iron ore extended its decline toward $100 a ton, with few signs of a turnaround in Chinese steel demand. Gold edged lower. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $2,170/oz.

Bitcoin took a breather after soaring to highs yesterday, and currently holds just shy of USD 73.5k.

The US economic data calendar includes February retail sales and PPI and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and January business inventories (10am). No scheduled Fed speakers due before March 20 policy decision. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, along with the ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, Knot and Stournaras.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,184.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 508.44
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 176.55
  • MXAPJ little changed at 540.98
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 38,807.38
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,661.59
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 16,961.66
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,038.23
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 73,006.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,713.63
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,718.76
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.38%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0941
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $84.19/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,169.72
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 102.85

Top Overnight News

  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it’s “unlikely” that market interest rates will return to levels that prevailed before the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a wave of inflation and higher yields. BBG
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will likely take his time normalizing ultra-loose monetary policy after ending negative interest rates, former central bank executive Hideo Hayakawa said on Thursday. RTRS
  • Japan's largest industrial union said on Thursday the average pay rise offered by 231 firms for both full-time and part-time employees was the biggest since 2013, amid signs wage hikes were broadening. RTRS
  • Chinese wheat importers have cancelled or postponed about one million metric tons of Australian wheat cargoes, trade sources with direct knowledge of the deals said, as growing world stockpiles drag down prices. RTRS
  • The crude market faces a supply deficit throughout 2024 — instead of the surplus previously expected — as OPEC+ looks set to continue output cuts in the second half, the IEA said. The agency bolstered forecasts for global demand growth by 9% to 1.3 million barrels a day, on a stronger US outlook. BBG
  • The ECB must lower borrowing costs twice before its August summer break and two more times before the end of the year, without being swayed by the US Federal Reserve, according to Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras. BBG
  • The US has held secret talks with Iran this year in a bid to convince Tehran to use its influence over Yemen’s Houthi movement to end attacks on ships in the Red Sea, according to US and Iranian officials. FT
  • Tuesday’s CPI report shouldn’t fundamentally alter expectations that the Fed will cut rates around three times this year because it isn’t likely to justify a meaningful revision in officials’ forecasts for inflation as measured by that index, said Eric Rosengren, who headed the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021. WSJ
  • Donald Trump has talked about hedge fund titan John Paulson as Treasury secretary if he wins the November presidential election, and has held a series of meetings with potential cabinet picks. Other potential names in the mix for the top Treasury post, should Trump defeat incumbent President Joe Biden, include former US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, Susquehanna International Group LLP founder Jeff Yass and Key Square Group LP founder Scott Bessent. BBG
  • Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) expand partnership to satisfy global demand for oracle database Azure.
    MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) - The crypto investor announced its intention to offer USD 500mln of convertible senior notes due 2031, with an additional option for purchasers to buy up to USD 75mln more. MSTR intended to use the proceeds to purchase additional bitcoin and for general corporate purposes. Shares +4.5 pre-market trade
  • Under Armour (UAA) - Kevin Plank will assume the roles of President and CEO from April 1st, succeeding Stephanie Linnartz. Mohamed El-Erian will become the non-executive Chair of the Board. Plank, founder of Under Armour, transitions from the Executive Chair role, while Linnartz will remain to advise until April 30th. Shares -4.5% in pre-market trade

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after the indecisive performance stateside amid light catalysts and tech weakness, with participants lacking conviction ahead of next week's central bank bonanza. ASX 200 was subdued as losses in financials and tech overshadowed the gains in the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively after a slew of BoJ-related source reports suggesting a policy shift next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid tech-related headwinds after the US House approved the bill which threatens to ban TikTok, while the mainland was indecisive with downside initially cushioned after China issued plans to promote trading in consumer goods and equipment upgrades.

Top Asian news

  • BoJ will discuss whether to end its negative interest rate policy as pay hikes by major companies bring the central bank's 2% price stability target within reach. Furthermore, with more BoJ policymakers embracing the idea, the decision is seen coming down to the results of Japan's annual wage negotiations, to be published by top labour confederation Rengo on Friday, according to Nikkei.
  • Japanese Federation of Textile, Chemical, Commerce, Food and General Services Workers' Unions which is the largest industrial union and known as UA Zensen stated that the average pay increase offered by 231 firms reached the biggest on record since 2013 compared with the same period last year.
  • Taiwan Central Bank Governor said they are concerned potential electricity price hikes will result in a chain reaction effect on inflation expectations and they will be very prudent about discussions on interest rates this time, while he added that they will not likely cut interest rates before June, according to Reuters.
  • Foxconn (2317 TT) sees 2024 revenue to increase significantly Y/Y; sees Q1 revenue to slightly decline Y/Y, sees Q1 revenue for smart consumer electronics to slightly decline Y/Y. Q4 net profit TWD 53.14bln (exp. 43.5bln; prev. 43.1bln Q/Q). Sees Q1 revenue for cloud and networking products to be flat Y/Y. Sees Q1 revenue for computing products to be flat Y/Y. Says major growth momentum this year will be AI servers, expects the servers business to grow strongly this year; sees very strong demand in AI from clients. AI server growth in 2023-25 could be stronger than the market average, potentially above 30% or higher annually. Semiconductor revenue will surpass TWD 100bln this year.
  • China's Commerce Ministry on the review into Australian wine tariffs says the final ruling will be made in accordance with the investigation procedures.
  • Chinese State Planner has issued a draft rules to support high-quality firms to take on medium and long-term foreign debt.

European bourses are mostly in the green, with sentiment lifted after dovish remarks from ECB's Stournaras. The SMI (-0.3%) underperforms, hampered by post-earnings weakness in Swiss Life (-5.7%). European sectors are mixed, with Basic Resources found at the foot of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in base metals, whilst Energy benefits from firmer crude prices. US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.5%, RTY +0.2) are trading on a firmer footing, with slight outperformance in the NQ, attempting to pare back some of its losses from the prior session.

Top European news

  • ECB's Stournaras says they have to cut rates twice prior to the summer break, via Bloomberg; four cuts in 2024 seems reasonable. Need to begin cutting soon; policy must not become too restrictive. Dismisses the idea that the ECB cannot cut before the Fed. Don't exaggerate the risk of a wage-price-spiral. Structural portfolio will include government bonds. Remarks which sparked a modest uptick in EGBs.
  • ECB Chief Economist Lane says the ECB has a bit more confidence that they are heading towards the inflation goal, more data will help gain more confidence, via CNBC; Better not to analyse whether it is April or June when it comes to lowering rates
  • Norges Bank Regional Network Report Q1 2024 : Expects overall activity to remain virtually unchanged in the first half of 2024. Prospects have been revised up somewhat since the previous survey.Employment plans for 2024 Q1 have been revised up slightly since the previous survey. Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.9% in 2024, which is an upward revision from the 4.5% estimate in November.

FX

  • DXY is broadly flat vs. peers ahead of a slew of Tier 1 US data, with the index contained within yesterday's 102.66-103.02 range. Strong data could see DXY reclaim 103 and approach the weekly high at 103.17. A soft release could see the index approach the post-NFP low at 102.35.
  • EUR is steady vs. the USD and contained within yesterday's 1.0920-1.0963 range. ECB's Stournaras sparked modest pressure for the Single-Currency, though the move quickly faded.
  • JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD but ultimately contained within yesterday's 147.23-148.05 range. Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of tomorrow's Rengo announcement which will likely shape expectations for next week's BoJ decision.
  • AUD/USD is flat vs. the USD in what has been a week of contained price action, and currently sits within yesterday's 0.6599-0.6635 range. NZD is trivially firmer vs. USD after edging above yesterday's peak at 0.6170.
  • SEK is weaker vs. peers given soft inflation metrics which has seen odds of a May cut creep higher. EUR/SEK made a new high for the week at 11.218 but still some way off March highs.

Fixed Income

  • Once again, USTs are marginally in the red within the European morning. Specifics since the 30yr auction (strong) have been light and USTs are now back to pre-auction levels of 110-30; data and 20yr announcement due.
  • Gilts are the relative laggard as they continue to pare from the outperformance seen on Tuesday's labour data, with few fresh drivers able to change the narrative. Gilts hold towards the lower end of a 99.01-98.80 range.
  • Bunds are in the red but off the 132.42 trough after remarks from ECB's Stournaras who said that two cuts are needed before the summer break and four for 2024 is reasonable. Commentary which has helped to lift Bunds to a 132.66 high. Comments from ECB's Lane failed to spark any price action in Bunds.

Commodities

  • Crude is firmer with gains facilitated by Russian facility outages, bullish US energy inventory data and several geological updates. Brent May rose from support at USD 83.98/bbl and currently holds just shy of USD 84.75/bbl.
  • A subdued morning thus far for precious metals and with overall trade rangebound, awaiting impetus from US Tier 1 data. XAU trades within a tight range between USD 2,167.47-2,177.05/oz.
  • Base metals are mostly subdued as a function of the Dollar and quiet macro updates. Copper holds onto a bulk of the prior day's gains (following reports that major Chinese copper smelters agreed to curb output) whilst iron ore overnight continued trundling lower amid ongoing Chinese demand woes.
  • IEA OMR: Raises 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 110k BPD to 1.3mln BPD; says if OPEC+ voluntary cuts remain in place through 2024, market is seen in a slight deficit rather than a surplus. While 2024 growth has been revised up by 110 kb/d from last month’s Report, the pace of expansion is on track to slow from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.3 mb/d, as demand growth returns to its historical trend while efficiency gains and EVs reduce use. World oil production is projected to fall by 870 kb/d in 1Q24 vs 4Q23 due to heavy weather-related shut-ins and new curbs from the OPEC+ bloc. Refining margins improved through mid-February before receding, with the US Midcontinent and Gulf Coast as well as Europe leading the gains. In this Report, we are now holding OPEC+ voluntary cuts in place through 2024 – unwinding them only when such a move is confirmed by the producer alliance (see OPEC+ cuts extended). On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US Secretary of State Blinken held a video call with officials from Cyprus, Britain, UAE, Qatar, EU and the UN to discuss getting a new maritime corridor for delivering humanitarian aid into Gaza up and running, according to Reuters.
  • US is expected to impose new sanctions on two illegal outposts in the occupied West Bank that were used as a base for attacks by extremist Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians, according to three US officials cited by Axios.
  • US CENTCOM said Iranian-backed Houthis fired one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden although the missile did not impact any vessels and there was no damage reported, while its forces successfully engaged and destroyed four unmanned aerial systems and one surface-to-air missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Taiwan and China authorities both dispatched teams to join a rescue mission after a Chinese fishing boat capsized near Taiwan-controlled Kinmen Islands on Thursday morning, according to Taiwanese press.
  • Philippines President Marcos and US Secretary of State Blinken to meet on March 19th to discuss cooperation and security matters, while Marcos vowed to defend maritime rights in the face of a 'more active attempt by China to annex some territories'.
  • North Korean leader Kim guided a military demonstration involving a tank unit on Wednesday, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
    • Feb. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior -0.4%
    • Feb. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.6%
  • 08:30: March Initial Claims, est. 218K, prior 217K
    • March Continuing Claims, est. 1.91m, prior 1.91m
  • 08:30: Feb. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0..3%, prior 0.3%
    • Feb. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.2%, prior 0.9%
    • Feb. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.0%
    • Feb. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
  • 10:00: Jan. Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets struggled to keep up their momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) falling back from its all-time high, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (+3.9bps) moved up for a third day running. That came amidst growing concern about how stretched the rally was becoming, with the S&P 500 having risen by more than +25% in less than 100 trading days. Moreover, there’s still quite a bit of focus on inflation, and the US CPI release this week has led to some scepticism about whether the Fed will be able to cut rates by June after all.

That focus on inflation is likely to remain today, as we’ll get the US PPI release at 12:30 London time. That’s an important one, because several components from the PPI feed into the PCE measure of inflation, which is the one that the Fed officially targets. According to our US economists, one category to focus on will be portfolio management and investment advice, which tends to follow equity prices with a one-month lag, and added about 8bps to the core PCE print in January. So even though we won’t get the PCE inflation data until March 29th, the reading today will offer a better sense of what that’s likely to be.

Ahead of that release, there was a further selloff for sovereign bonds, which came as investors dialled back the chance of near-term rate cuts again. For instance, the chance of a rate cut by June was down to 73%, down from 78% the previous day. And for the year as a whole, the number of cuts priced by the December meeting came down by -4.9bps to 80bps, the lowest in a couple of weeks. In turn, that helped yields rise further, and the 2yr yield rose +4.8bps to 4.63%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield was up +3.9bps to 4.19%. The sell-off in Treasuries came despite a strong 30yr auction, which saw $22bn of bonds issued 2bps below the pre-sale yield, with the highest bid-to-cover ratio since last June. And in overnight trading, the 10yr Treasury yield has risen by another +1.2bps, and is currently at 4.20%.

Over in Europe, there were also losses for sovereign bonds across most of the continent. That was led by gilts, where the 10yr yield rose +7.4bps after data showed UK GDP rose by +0.2% in January, up from a -0.1% contraction in December. Elsewhere, 10yr yields on bunds (+3.7bps) and OATs (+2.7bps) also moved higher. But I talian BTPs (-1.2bps) continued to outperform, and their spread over 10yr bund yields tightened to 123bps, the lowest since November 2021. Speaking of spreads, there was also a further tightening in credit spreads yesterday, with both European and US HY spreads down to their lowest since January 2022.

Elsewhere in Europe, one notable event in the central bank space was the outcome of the ECB’s operational framework review. In line with expectations, the ECB will take a hybrid approach to providing the liquidity needed to operate a floor-type system. Among the details, it will shrink the gap between the depo and the refi rate from 50bp to 15bp starting in September, while keeping banks’ required minimum reserves (which earn zero interest) at 1% of eligible deposits. The review has few immediate market implications, but will have long-term ramifications for the direction of ECB balance sheet policy and functioning of Euro Area money markets. See our economists' reaction note here for more.

For equities, there was a mixed performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) moving off from its all-time high the previous day. However, that was driven by weakness among tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down -0.54%, whilst the Magnificent 7 fell -0.74%. The latter was led by a -4.54% decline for Tesla, which overtook Boeing as the weakest performer in the S&P 500 year-to-date with a -31.79% decline. Otherwise though, there was a better performance, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 marginally up by +0.01% to an all-time high, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +0.30%. Meanwhile in Europe there were further all-time highs, with new records for the STOXX 600 (+0.16%) and the CAC 40 (+0.62%).

Overnight in Asia we’ve also seen a divergent performance for equities. On the one hand, there’ve been gains for the Nikkei (+0.21%) and the KOSPI (+0.86%). But the CSI 300 (-0.10%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.09%) and the Hang Seng (-0.87%) have all lost ground. Elsewhere, US equity futures are indicating a positive start, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.12%.

Finally in the commodity space, Brent crude oil prices rose to their highest level since November, up +2.58% to $84.03/bbl, while WTI rose +2.78% to $79.72/bbl. The moves came amid Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and with data showing that US crude stockpiles declined for the first time in seven weeks. Higher oil prices have been filtering through to consumer prices since the start of the year, and the AAA’s measure of US daily gasoline prices has already risen from $3.110 per gallon at the end of 2023 to $3.396 per gallon yesterday.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US PPI and retail sales for February, along with the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, along with the ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, Knot and Stournaras.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 08:19

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Good news and bad news Thursday: the good news is jobless claims . . .

  – by New Deal democratThis morning brought us both good and bad economic news.The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000,…

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 - by New Deal democrat


This morning brought us both good and bad economic news.


The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000, down -1,000 from last week, while the four week average declined -500 to 208,000. Even better, after major downward revisions, continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.811 million:



Recall that continuing claims had been reported over 1.900 million, so as I said above, this was major!

On the more important YoY basis for forecasting, initial claims are down -14.3%, the four week average down -7.2%, and continuing claims, which before revisions had been running at about 10% higher YoY, are now only up 2.2%:



This is all very positive for continued good employment numbers in the months ahead (but see my next post today!).

Last week the unemployment number very much did NOT do what I expected, which was to remain steady or decline. Instead it rose to a new 2+ year high of 3.9%. I wondered whether, because unemployment includes both new and existing job losses, it followed continuing claims more than initial claims (although initial claims lead both).

Here’s the long term pre-pandemic trend (divided into two parts for easier viewing)(continuing claims /8 for scale):




Historically, as I’ve always pointed out, initial claims lead both continuing claims and the unemployment rate. The above graph shows that continuing claims also lead the unemployment rate, although with much less of a lead time.

So here is the post-pandemic record:



The divergence between initial and continuing claims beginning this past autumn looks like it indeed has passed through into the unemployment rate. Since the historical record remains that initial claims lead continuing claims, and in the past three weeks (post revisions!) continuing claims have declined sharply, we’ll see how this shakes out after the full month of March.

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The best real estate coaching programs for 2024

Hone your skills and level up your business this year by investing in an expert real estate coaching program

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Real estate is a vibrant, dynamic and competitive industry. From the thrill of a sale to the pursuit of new leads, it keeps you on your toes. That said, it can also be incredibly isolating, and it can be hard to stay motivated. As a way to deal with this, many agents and brokers seek out professional mentorship as a means to gain insight and level up their performance. Across the country, the best real estate coaches serve as valuable mentors who can help agents and brokers achieve the success they deserve. 

“It’s really hard for independent business owners to get unbiased advice from themselves,” says Kyle Scott, President of SERHANT. Ventures. “So they need unbiased experts to work with that will help them grow their business — someone who has been there, who has done it, and who is able to see their business from both the 35,000-foot view and down in the weeds.” 

A quick internet search will prove that real estate coaching programs are plentiful. Whether you’re looking to expand your team or client network or figure out how to delegate work so you can focus on the tasks you do best, a real estate coaching program could be a valuable launchpad. But when it comes to choosing the right one for your unique needs, there’s a lot to consider. Here, we highlight some of the best real estate coaches in the industry and their programs.

Summary

Who can benefit most from real estate coaching?

An unbiased view is worth millions. Often, we turn to our closest friends and family for guidance. Unfortunately, they’re usually not familiar with the ins and outs of the real estate industry and can’t provide you with the relevant feedback you need. As a result, many independent contractors rely on themselves, which generally doesn’t work either.

You can’t advise yourself, you’re too close to it. A coach works best for someone who is actually looking to grow their business, someone who is looking to put in the time and the energy to make a difference in achieving more income this year. Hire a coach if you want to start taking your business to the next level for any reason — you want to make more money, have more freedom with your time, or stop riding the ins and outs of the commission cycle.President of SERHANT. Ventures

1. Sell It Like Serhant

Key Facts

Grown throughout the pandemic, the Sell It Like Serhant program has been carefully adapted to the current market. It follows a weekly and bi-weekly platform featuring one-on-one virtual coaching from Serhant’s proprietary video platform. After a half-hour or hour-long group meeting every week or every other week, participants follow actionable steps to help them grow their business. Thus far, more than 22,000 enrollees in 128 countries have been through the Sell It Like Serhant program.

What We Love

Serhant offers daily office hours so participants can pop into virtual sessions to ask questions or get expert advice between their regularly scheduled sessions. A community platform also allows participants to pass referrals to each other. Thus far, it seems to have worked: To date, participating agents have closed over $250 million of referral deals.

Pricing

There are different membership tiers, depending on the level of guidance you need. The introductory Real Estate Core Course starts at $497. Prices are higher for a more specific course or one with 1:1 coaching.

Who’s it Best For?

If you’re looking to build a memorable personal brand, SERHANT. is the way to go. “The number one differentiator about our program is we understand that as a real estate agent, you have one job: to generate leads,” says SERHANT. Ventures President Kyle Scott. “Our number one focus is helping you build a clear, compelling, memorable personal brand and put your lead generation on autopilot. So that way, you can do what you do best, which is build relationships and close deals.”

Visit Sell It Like Serhant

2. Tom Ferry International

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

For good reason, Ferry International refers to itself as the real estate industry’s leading coaching and training company. Focused on Ferry’s “8 Levels of Performance,” the programs are a staple of real estate coaching. Their new group coaching sessions cover various aspects of real estate sales.

Prospecting Bootcamp is a 14-hour program comprised of seven two-hour group coaching sessions, and includes a peer-to-peer collaboration space. It involves independent work pulled from training videos and downloadable resources.

Recruitment Roadmap consists of hour-long sessions each week for ten weeks. Completed over Zoom and through the Tom Ferry video platform, each group coaching program offers a high level of specialization.

Finally, their Fast Track program offers 12 interactive group coaching sessions designed to help new agents build the necessary skills to succeed — like mastering listing presentations and handling objections. 

What we love 

If you’re looking for the gold standard of real estate coaching, Tom Ferry has the goods to back up the bravado. Because of their many years in the biz, Tom Ferry has a huge base of coaches, which means there are plenty of options to find the program best suited for your specific needs.

Pricing

Tom Ferry’s Prospecting Bootcamp and Fast Track coaching programs cost $999 but can be broken down into three monthly payments. The Recruitment Roadmap group coaching costs $1,499 but can be split into three monthly payments of $500. Consider their free coaching consultation if you want to dip your toes in the water. Check out their customer reviews, where several coaching program alums rave about the program.

Who’s it Best For?

If you thrive in a group setting that allows you to feed off the energy of others, Tom Ferry might be right for you. Their group coaching programs are new and more affordable alternatives to often costly 1:1 coaching fees.

Visit Tom Ferry

3. Tim and Julie Harris

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

The dynamic duo of real estate coaching, Tim and Julie Harris are a major name in the industry. Under their business, Harris Real Estate Coaching, their programs are divided into three tiers: Premier, Premier Plus, and VIP, all of which rely on a user-friendly online platform.

Pricing 

Premier platform costs $197 per month, but a 30-day free trial is available. Premier Plus costs $599 per month, while VIP costs $999 per month. Of course, their wildly successful podcast is a great free resource to tap into, as well as Tim and Julie’s many written contributions to HousingWire.

Who’s it Best For? 

If you’re constantly on the go, the ability to access the course from any device is a major asset.


4. Candy Miles-Crocker

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

Newbies are welcome at Candy Miles Crocker’s program. Known as the “Real Life Realtor,” she’s the brain behind Real Life Real Estate Training. With a variety of courses in her offerings, including a plethora of self-paced online courses, Miles-Crocker gives new agents a leg-up on the rest.

What we love

Miles-Crocker is still an active agent, working with clients to close deals. Her 20+ years of experience practicing in Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have helped her build “systems, strategies and scripts” that she shares with her coaching clients.

Pricing

The CORE Essentials Blueprint program retails for $1,597. Smaller, more specific courses, such as The Buyer Presentation, are priced at $347.  While all pricing isn’t listed on her website, Miles-Crocker also offers a free course that includes her 6-point system for growth.

Who’s it Best For?

Miles-Crocker’s courses could be beneficial if you are new to agent life or looking to get your business reorganized. She even has one specifically for your first 30 days as a real estate agent.


5. Ashley Harwood

Ashley Harwood_headshot

Key Facts

Boston-based Ashley Harwood inspires introverts with her convincing, heartfelt and high-touch approach to practicing real estate. Her very human, very relatable Move Over Extroverts coaching approach is the perfect antidote for cheerleader-style coaches that urge you to door-knock, chase down divorce leads or become a social media superstar.

What we love

Harwood is a licensed agent coaching agents week-in and week-out at no less than three Keller-Williams offices in the great Boston metro. We love her humanity, inspiring videos, and her latest enterpise — The Quiet Success Club. Inspired by Susan Cain’s New York Times bestseller Quiet, about the power of introverts, Harwood brings together a community of like-minded real estate agents wanting a more client-centric approach to succeeding as an agent.

Pricing

Join The Quiet Success Club for $45 per month (paid monthly) or get two months free when you pay for an annual subscription (for $450). The club is currently offering founding member pricing for $25 per month or $250, but it’s a limited-time offer available only under April 30, 2024. Or get a lifetime membership to Harwood’s suite of courses, called IntrovertU, for a one-time cost of $997.

Who’s it Best For?

Introverts, of course! While you may not count yourself as one, if you read Susan Cain’s book, you may unearth your more introverted traits — like recharging your battery by being alone. Ok, even if you don’t bask in solitude, Harwood promises a calming community where agents can be themselves, be seen, and where they don’t have to be the loudest voice in her mastermind group, purposefully (and quietly) designed to teach successful lead generation and other strategies.


6. Levi Lascsak

If you’re looking to improve your social media game, Levi Lascsak is the YouTube master. The author of Passive Prospecting specializes in helping real estate professionals embrace the video platform, and he does so in jam-packed, 2-day virtual events. Discover how he earned over $4 million in gross commission income as a new agent.

What we love  

Lascsak’s social media marketing skills are top-of-the-line. While he may not be part of the traditional world of real estate coaching, Lascak’s ability to relate to younger audiences is an asset that Millennial and Gen Z agents might appreciate.

Pricing

The live, 2-day events are available at a discount for $47. But as you can expect, he’s got endless information available for free on YouTube.

Who’s it best for?

If you’re a digital native looking to pack a bunch of education into a short period, a Lascsak course is particularly beneficial.


7. Jess Lenouvel

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

Promising to help agents scale from six to seven figures, The Listings Lab founder Jess Lenouvel is the author of More Money, Less Hustle. A strong example of a coach with a significant understanding of social media, Lenouvel hosts vibrant live events that hype up the audience and prepare them to take their career to the next level.

What we Love

Lenouvel emphasizes the significant power of mindset to achieve one’s goals. She understands how quickly the market shifts and emphasizes staying on top of trends to succeed.

Pricing

Tickets to The Listings Lab retail for $997, but Lenouvel offers a variety of free resources as well, like her Listing Lab guide.

Who’s it best for?

Lenouvel’s live events focus on messaging. For those looking to solidify their brand and develop a clear, concise message, her events might be what you need.


8. Buffini & Company

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

Another giant of the real estate coaching industry, Buffini & Company is one of the largest coaching and training companies in the United States. They have two major coaching programs:  The Leadership Coaching program includes three monthly coaching calls, free admission to a 2-day conference, and curriculums and training led by Brian Buffini. There are also bi-monthly coaching sessions and a monthly web series with a live Q&A.

Buffini & Company also performs a REALstrengths profile — an in-depth personality assessment. In the One2One Coaching program, there are two coaching calls per month, a monthly marketing kit, the REALStrengths profile, and as with the SERHANT. program, Buffini features the Buffini Referral Network, allowing participants to send and receive referrals with other agents.

What We Love

Buffini coaches aren’t independent contractors. Instead, they’re full-time employees who go through intense training. Thus far, they’ve conducted 1.7 million coaching calls and more than one million hours of coaching.

Pricing

The Leadership Coaching program costs $1,499 a month. Private coaching, referred to as One2One Coaching, costs $549 per month. Two tiers of Referral Maker courses are available from $45 to $149 each per month.

Who’s it Best For?

Team spirit is the name of the game for Buffini’s Leadership Coaching program. If you’re a team leader looking to improve your coaching skills and assist your team in leveling up, the Leadership Coaching program might be right for you. If you want a more personalized path as a solo agent, the One2One Coaching program may be a better fit.


9. Vanda Martin

Key Facts

A popular name in the real estate coaching industry, Vanda Martin’s VIP Coaching Program follows three components: coaching, content, and community. Martin doesn’t shy away from mistakes – instead, she emphasizes avoiding indecision that puts you behind the pack. 

What we love

Positive vibes are plentiful in Martin’s world, and her energy is tangible. Just check out her Instagram videos.

Pricing

Martin’s pricing isn’t listed.

Who’s it best for?

If you’re looking for a female leader who emphasizes loving your job and building habits that will take you to a greater level of success, Martin’s ability to convey those feelings is clear. Just check out the endless testimonials on her website.


9. Tat Londono

Key Facts

Tatiana Londono is the founder and CEO of Londono Realty Group Inc. The author of Real Estate Unfiltered, she offers a variety of programming that ranges from free templates to intensive coaching sessions. The Millionaire Realtor Membership provides weekly input from Londono, while the intensive Millionaire Real Estate Agent Coaching Program focuses on building 12-month objectives using a custom success action plan. It uses live programming and workshops with Londono herself, as well as an exclusive online community and referral network for members.

What we love

Londono’s keen sense of social media and her posts are a masterclass in how to boost your engagement on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Don’t miss her takes on Taylor Swift’s real estate portfolio.

Pricing

There are several tiers of Londono’s programs. The Millionaire Realtor Membership costs $97 per month, while the intensive Millionaire Real Estate Agent Coaching Program doesn’t publicly list its price tag. However, you can access her “six-figure real estate scripts” for free on her website.

Who’s it Best For?

Londono’s programs specifically target agents who are looking to scale their business. If you’re struggling with lead generation or want to increase the number of views you’re racking up on social media, Londono is a valuable source within the industry.


10. Steve Shull

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

Steve Shull’s Performance Coaching focuses on using consistent execution to achieve your goals. With options ranging from 1:1 private coaching to small group coaching for 10 to 20 agents, the groups have 30-minute Zoom calls three times a day, but the number of sessions you choose to attend is up to you.  Several self-directed courses are also available on the website, focusing on topics ranging from mindset to time blocking.

What we love

If you’re not positive you want to make the investment, Performance Coaching allows a 14-day free trial of daily accountability calls. 

Pricing

Small group coaching costs $6,000 a year, and while 1:1 coaching prices aren’t listed online, you should prepare for a hefty price tag. 

Who’s it Best For?

If you have a specific area you’re looking to improve upon, Performance Coaching offers coaches with unique areas of expertise, ranging from CRMs to business strategy. Tailoring your program to your greatest areas of weakness can help you become a more well-rounded agent.


11. Aaron Novello

Headshot-Serhant

Key Facts

Aaron Novello of Elite Real Estate Coaching has several programs tailor-made for agents looking to hone their craft. A Masterclass in Systems works to teach agents how to scale their real estate business, organize their team, and use programming like Follow Up Boss to manage their business.

The Role Play Mastermind is for agents looking to prepare themselves for tough discussions by working with a role-play partner for 15 to 30 minutes, five days a week. The group coaching option includes a variety of scripts Novello used to close on homes, as well as mindset guides, skill sheets, and expert guidance from experts in the field.

What we love

Novello’s exclusive accountability group allows active members and former coaching clients to share everything from guidance to motivation. If you’re looking to save money, Novello also has a free podcast available on YouTube.

Pricing

Group coaching costs $250 per month and comes with a money-back guarantee. Novello’s masterclass also retails for $250. The Role Play Mastermind costs $500 per year.

Who’s it best for?

If you struggle with having difficult conversations and are looking for solid templates to guide you, Novello’s Role Play Mastermind is a solid investment. The group coaching option emphasizes taking the educational portion and putting it into practice in the real world rather than just watching videos.


12. Krista Mashore Coaching

Key Facts

Filled with energy and known for popping up in the press, Krista Mashore is the mind behind Unstoppable Agent, her 3-day mastery class. It includes over 15 hours of coaching, group workshops, breakout sessions, and skill-building workshops to provide you with the skills to implement digital marketing successfully into your real estate business. 

What we love 

A positive attitude counts for a lot, and Mashore’s personality is a key component of the success of her course.

Pricing

Mashore’s accessibility is another one of her program’s best assets. Her 3-day class is currently priced at $47, but pricing occasionally varies.

Who’s it best for?

If you crave energy and enthusiasm, Krista Mashore has the goods. She’s also an expert on working in today’s low-inventory market, which is ideal for someone struggling with the current housing shortage. But she’s also got a good sense of humor, which shines through in her social media presence.


The full picture: The best real estate coaches for 2024

Hiring a top real estate coach goes far beyond just expanding your skills. While growing and educating yourself as you navigate your career is essential, hiring a coach is all about seeking to achieve more. Whether you’re looking to boost lead generation, build a solid personal brand, or make more commission income, having the input of a seasoned expert is a priceless step in the right direction. As you can see through the endless reviews and testimonials on coaches’ websites, agents who want to scale their business and take their profits to a higher level often seek the outside guidance of a coach. While the cost of hiring someone may be significant, the return on investment is equally as monumental.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • How much does real estate coaching cost?

    Real estate coaching programs vary in price significantly. Most cost over $500 per month, with others charging several thousand dollars per month. “Oftentimes, it is the case that you get what you pay for,” said Kyle Scott, President of SERHANT. Ventures.

    However, prices can also vary depending on the specific niche of real estate coaching you’re focusing on. The more specificity you’re seeking, the higher the financial investment. Of course, self-led courses are likely to cost much less.

  • When is the best time to take advantage of real estate coaching?

    Does your career feel stalled right now? Are you ready to take your career to the next level, but you’re not sure where to start? In a down market, you can channel your time and energy into actively improving your business skills so that you’ll be sufficiently prepared for when the market changes.

    “When things pick up again, you’re ready to capture the climbing market,” says Scott. “If that’s the case, then the best time to embrace coaching is now. At the same time, a thriving market presents agents with new challenges, ranging from having to turn away business or being unable to service your existing business in a way you’re proud of,” Scott noted. “In that type of market, a real estate coach can help you determine what kind of junior agent or assistant would serve you best. How do I figure out how to manage my business in a way that I can keep up with the volume?”

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