Week Ahead – Phase-one trade deal and UK election aftermath

Dec 13 20:12 2019 Print This Article

The US dollar remains at a critical juncture as Fed policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future and as we start to see an economic rebound come out of Europe. The world’s largest and strongest economy is likely to start to see economic growth slow in the fourth quarter, further cementing the belief that the Fed will have no changes in policy for the foreseeable future.  With Europe starting to have some major macro events fall into place for them, we could see the dollar react more to rebounding European data than to sluggish numbers from the US.

The overall tone with risk appetite will focus on both the aftermaths of the UK General election and the details with the phase-one deal agreement between the US and China.  The focus will also fall onto the whether we see an improvement in China’s November activity data and a plethora of rate decisions.  The BOJ and BOE are widely to keep policy unchanged, but we could see Sweden’s Riksbank tighten policy while Mexico’s Banxico cuts rates.

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