January 13, 2020

Jan 14 05:01 2020 Print This Article

The big argument against market timing is chaos theory. But can chaos be mitigated?

Half a century ago, the pioneers of chaos theory discovered that the “butterfly effect” makes long-term prediction impossible. Even the smallest perturbation to a complex system (like the weather, the economy or just about anything else) can touch off a concatenation of events that leads to a dramatically divergent future. Unable to pin down the state of these systems precisely enough to predict how they’ll play out, we live under a veil of uncertainty.

But now the robots are here to help.

In a series of results reported in the journals Physical Review Letters and Chaos, scientists have used machine learning — the same computational technique behind recent successes in artificial intelligence — to predict the future evolution of chaotic systems out to stunningly distant horizons. The approach is being lauded by outside experts as groundbreaking and likely to find wide application.

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About Article Author

PrefBlog

PrefBlog is presented as a public service by Hymas Investment Management Inc., Manager / Trustee of Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fundand publisher of PrefLetter, a monthly newsletter directed towards long term buy-and-hold retail investors. James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management Inc, with years of experience designing quantitative investment technology and applying this technology to conservative portfolios, seeks to provide institutions and retail investors with the information and advice necessary to produce top quartile returns in the preferred share market without the assumption of excess risk.

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