Connect with us

International

Is the Tide Turning in the Pandemic, Politics and Stocks?

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett (“Maxims of Wall Street,” p. 123) Note: I have a special announcement today. See below. Are we seeing a turning of the tide this year when it comes…

Published

2 years ago

on

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett (“Maxims of Wall Street,” p. 123)

Note: I have a special announcement today. See below.

Are we seeing a turning of the tide this year when it comes to the fight against the pandemic, the November elections and the stock market?

A few days ago, I met up with Bert Dohmen, longtime editor of The Wellington Letter, at his home in California. He sent me his latest newsletter with the classic headline, “Turn of the Tide?”

That headline is famous because it’s the same headline that William Hamilton, editor of the Wall Street Journal, used on October 25, 1929, to announce to the world that the Dow Theory “gave the signal of a bear market in stocks.”

His declaration came within days of the crash on Wall Street. On Black Monday, October 28, 1929, the Dow declined nearly 13%. On the following day, Black Tuesday, the market dropped nearly 12%. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century and 89% below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.

Are We Headed for a Bear Market in 2022?

Bert Dohmen senses a bear market coming in 2022. He warned his subscribers that the stock market was topping out and would head south. “Reality is returning, at least to some sectors,” he wrote. “Eventually, it will return to most sectors. That will be painful. The technology sector continues to get hammered and should be shunned.”

The jury is still out, but there is no doubt that Wall Street has had an incredible run during this “Mother of All Bull Markets.”

We at Forecasts & Strategies have taken full advantage and have, until now, ignored the perma-bears who are constantly predicting the end of the world.

To quote J. Paul Getty, America’s first billionaire, “Businessmen can profit handsomely if they will disregard the pessimistic auguries of self-appointed prophets of doom.” (Maxims, p. 112)

Nevertheless, bear markets do raise their ugly head from time to time. As the French philosopher, Bertrand de Jouvenel, states, “A forecast is never so useful as when it warns man of a crisis.” (p. 112)

What Will the Future Bring?

I would not be surprised to see a major correction in the market this year. It’s long overdue. It may be in reaction to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in an effort to curtail inflation; another lockdown of the global economy in response to the never-ending pandemic; Biden pushing through sharply higher tax rates and regulations; geo-political instability in Asia or the Middle East or a natural disaster.

Alex Green, investment guru at the Oxford Club, states, “The market has turned more volatile in recent weeks as investors grapple with the lightning-fast spread of Omicron, high inflation, global supply chain issues and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates as early as March.”

Nevertheless, Green is optimistic: “The flip side of this, of course, is that Omicron is rapidly taking us closer to herd immunity, higher interest rates will moderate future inflation and supply chain issues are already beginning to abate.”

Making a Difference in the Classroom

As long-term subscribers know, I’ve made a career out of influencing our future generation into understanding how the real world works and what economic policies should be adopted to achieve: peace, prosperity and liberty.

I’ve taught at major universities around the world, including Columbia University in New York, and now at Chapman University in California. I’ve given lectures at around 50 colleges and universities, including Harvard, Stanford and the University of Chicago.

My two most popular textbooks are “Economic Logic,” which is now in its fifth edition, and “The Making of Modern Economics.”

The New, Fourth Edition of ‘Making of Modern Economics’ is Out!

Good news! The brand-new fourth edition of “The Making of Modern Economics” has just been published by the prestigious publisher Routledge (publisher of the works of Friedrich Hayek).

Guess who the hero is of my book?

It is now the most popular history textbook of the great economic thinkers used in the classroom. As Roger Garrison, professor at Auburn University, states, “My students love it. Skousen makes the history of economics come alive like no other textbook.”

It is the only history textbook that reads like a novel, with a hero (Adam Smith and his “system of natural liberty”) who constantly comes under attack by the socialists, Marxists and Keynesians. He is sometimes left for dead but then is miraculously resuscitated by the French laissez-faire school of thought, the Austrians, the supply-siders and the Chicago School of economics.

Spoiler Alert! It even has a good ending when the Adam Smith model triumphs with the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet socialist central planning model.

The fourth edition updates the dramatic story with the challenges of modern monetary theory, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, minimum wage debates, the new socialists and more.

Click here for more information.

The book is award-winning. It has won the Choice Book Award for Academic Excellence, and it was ranked #2 Best Libertarian Books in Economics by the Ayn Rand Institute (behind Henry Hazlitt’s “Economics in One Lesson”).

Here’s what reviewers are saying:

“The most interesting and lively book on the history of economic thought ever written.” — Douglas A. Irwin, Dartmouth College, UK.

“A story rarely told… It’s unputdownable!” — Mark Blaug, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands

“Provocative, engaging, anything but dismal!” — N. Gregory Mankiw, Harvard University, The United States

“All histories of economics are BS — Before Skousen! Live and accurate, a sure bestseller.” —Milton Friedman

“Mark’s book is fun to read on every page. I have read it three times. I love this book and have recommended it to dozens of my friends.” — John Mackey (CEO, Whole Foods Market)

“Mark Skousen is a great economist, great entrepreneur and great friend. His book brings history to life, with concise and incisive sketches of flesh and blood individuals. Read it!” — Steve Forbes

Get 50% Off by Ordering it from the Author

Routledge charges $54.95, plus shipping, but you can buy it directly from the author for only $35. Each copy is autographed, dated and mailed for no extra charge if mailed inside the United States.

To buy your copy, go to www.skousenbooks.com.

‘Turning the Tide’ in Las Vegas!

Speaking of “Turning the Tide,” that’s our theme this year at FreedomFest, July 13-16, 2022, at the Mirage Hotel & Casino.

One of our goals is to reverse this dangerous trend in the size and scope of government, both here and abroad:

Our liberties are under attack, that’s for sure.

We have a great lineup of speakers, including the return of Steve Forbes, Grover Norquist, Steve Moore, John Fund and many other top geopolitical activists who are experts in turning the tide in politics and economic policy.

We just confirmed Glenn Greenwald, the American journalist famous for revealing U.S. global surveillance programs based on classified documents provided by Edward Snowden. You won’t want to miss his talk.

FreedomFest is Famous for Its Debates

We also have Ben Stein and Arthur B. Laffer. In the famous scene in “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off,” Ben Stein plays the boring teacher who refers to the Laffer Curve as “voodoo economics.” To watch that memorable one-minute scene, go to Voodoo Economics — YouTube.

In 2002, Ben Stein was our keynote speaker at FEEFest, the precursor to FreedomFest. Now, 20 years later, he will make his second appearance… and he has agreed to debate Arthur B. Laffer, one of the founders of supply-side economics and the inventor of the famous Laffer Curve. They will appear together on stage at FreedomFest 2022 to debate the question, “Should the Rich Pay More in Taxes? Is the Laffer Curve Voodoo Economics?”

After the debate, Ben Stein will host a luncheon on the topic, “Rich and Famous: My Life in Beverly Hills and Hollywood.”

‘Is God Making a Comeback?’

In 1966, Time Magazine ran a famous cover story, “Is God Dead?” According to Time, modern science had eliminated the need for religion to explain the natural world, and God took up less and less space in people’s daily lives.

But now, religion is making a comeback, according to the New York Times bestselling author of the new book, “Is Atheism Dead?” Eric Metaxas provides new scientific and archeological evidence against the idea of a Creator-less universe. I’ve read it and find it compelling.

Eric Metaxas will be debating Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine and author of “Why Darwin Matters” and other important books, on “Is God Making a Comeback?” I look forward to it.

After their debate, both will be autographing their books at the FreedomFest bookstore.

Take Advantage of the Early Bird Special

Make plans now to attend the “greatest libertarian show on earth” by registering at www.freedomfest.com. Or call Hayley at 1-855-850-3733 ext. 202.

Use the code EAGLE to take advantage of our early bird special of $399 per person, and only $299 for guests (up to three guests). Register today!

Good investing, AEIOU,

You Blew It!

 Why We Left New York

Last year, we sold our home in New York and said goodbye to my favorite city in the United States. We had had enough of the lockdown, the loss of Broadway, the Lincoln Center and the university clubs. Crime was rising, and “Manhattanites” wanted out of the city.

It was time to move on.

I saw that Mark Ford of the Oxford Club wrote a column, “Goodbye Bill. I Won’t Miss You.”

He states in part:

“I’ve not lived there for 40 years, but in some ways, I still consider myself a New Yorker. Like most expatriates, I identify with everything that is great about the city. And there used to be so much. Lately, however, it has devolved in several critical respects. This is largely due to the woke politics of Bill de Blasio and a cast of cronies, including the infamous AOC. For example:

* From 2012 to 2018, 200,000 left the city. In 2021, 300,000 fled, most of them high-income earners.

* New York has also lost many big and vibrant businesses due to higher taxes and soaring crime. And it has lost hundreds of restaurants and retail stores due to the COVID lockdown.

* Murders are up 50%. Rapes are up 25%. Even my wokest friends, loyal denizens of the city, feel it’s unsafe to take a walk at night.

* Plus, New York has become the dirtiest city in the country. Its infrastructure is crumbling. Its sanitation is Third World.

“But it can recover. The Big Apple has been rotten before. It was dirty and dangerous when I was in my teens. And it came back beautifully from that. Its best hope is its new mayor, Eric Adams. He’s got his work cut out for him. But as a former policeman, he seems to understand that the first priority in fighting crime is a belief in law and order. Whether he will actually do anything about that remains to be seen.”

Even Mayor Eric Adams is going to have a hard time. Alvin Bragg, the newly elected district attorney, has issued a memo entitled “Achieving Fairness and Safety.” His policy includes de-prosecuting entire categories of crimes and slashing sentences. They are a “recipe of violence and disorder,” according to the Manhattan Institute.

Looks like New York is going the way of San Francisco. What a pity.

The post Is the Tide Turning in the Pandemic, Politics and Stocks? appeared first on Stock Investor.

Read More

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

International

The millions of people not looking for work in the UK may be prioritising education, health and freedom

Economic inactivity is not always the worst option.

Published

2 hours ago

on

March 15, 2024

By

Taking time out. pathdoc/Shutterstock

Around one in five British people of working age (16-64) are now outside the labour market. Neither in work nor looking for work, they are officially labelled as “economically inactive”.

Some of those 9.2 million people are in education, with many students not active in the labour market because they are studying full-time. Others are older workers who have chosen to take early retirement.

But that still leaves a large number who are not part of the labour market because they are unable to work. And one key driver of economic inactivity in recent years has been illness.

This increase in economic inactivity – which has grown since before the pandemic – is not just harming the economy, but also indicative of a deeper health crisis.

For those suffering ill health, there are real constraints on access to work. People with health-limiting conditions cannot just slot into jobs that are available. They need help to address the illnesses they have, and to re-engage with work through organisations offering supportive and healthy work environments.

And for other groups, such as stay-at-home parents, businesses need to offer flexible work arrangements and subsidised childcare to support the transition from economic inactivity into work.

The government has a role to play too. Most obviously, it could increase investment in the NHS. Rising levels of poor health are linked to years of under-investment in the health sector and economic inactivity will not be tackled without more funding.

Carrots and sticks

For the time being though, the UK government appears to prefer an approach which mixes carrots and sticks. In the March 2024 budget, for example, the chancellor cut national insurance by 2p as a way of “making work pay”.

But it is unclear whether small tax changes like this will have any effect on attracting the economically inactive back into work.

Jeremy Hunt also extended free childcare. But again, questions remain over whether this is sufficient to remove barriers to work for those with parental responsibilities. The high cost and lack of availability of childcare remain key weaknesses in the UK economy.

The benefit system meanwhile has been designed to push people into work. Benefits in the UK remain relatively ungenerous and hard to access compared with other rich countries. But labour shortages won’t be solved by simply forcing the economically inactive into work, because not all of them are ready or able to comply.

It is also worth noting that work itself may be a cause of bad health. The notion of “bad work” – work that does not pay enough and is unrewarding in other ways – can lead to economic inactivity.

There is also evidence that as work has become more intensive over recent decades, for some people, work itself has become a health risk.

The pandemic showed us how certain groups of workers (including so-called “essential workers”) suffered more ill health due to their greater exposure to COVID. But there are broader trends towards lower quality work that predate the pandemic, and these trends suggest improving job quality is an important step towards tackling the underlying causes of economic inactivity.

Freedom

Another big section of the economically active population who cannot be ignored are those who have retired early and deliberately left the labour market behind. These are people who want and value – and crucially, can afford – a life without work.

Here, the effects of the pandemic can be seen again. During those years of lockdowns, furlough and remote working, many of us reassessed our relationship with our jobs. Changed attitudes towards work among some (mostly older) workers can explain why they are no longer in the labour market and why they may be unresponsive to job offers of any kind.

Sign on railings supporting NHS staff during pandemic.
COVID made many people reassess their priorities. Alex Yeung/Shutterstock

And maybe it is from this viewpoint that we should ultimately be looking at economic inactivity – that it is actually a sign of progress. That it represents a move towards freedom from the drudgery of work and the ability of some people to live as they wish.

There are utopian visions of the future, for example, which suggest that individual and collective freedom could be dramatically increased by paying people a universal basic income.

In the meantime, for plenty of working age people, economic inactivity is a direct result of ill health and sickness. So it may be that the levels of economic inactivity right now merely show how far we are from being a society which actually supports its citizens’ wellbeing.

David Spencer has received funding from the ESRC.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal…

Published

5 hours ago

on

March 15, 2024

By

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding into U.S. hospitals for treatment and leaving billions in uncompensated health care costs in their wake.

The House Committee on Homeland Security recently released a report illustrating that from the estimated $451 billion in annual costs stemming from the U.S. border crisis, a significant portion is going to health care for illegal immigrants.

With the majority of the illegal immigrant population lacking any kind of medical insurance, hospitals and government welfare programs such as Medicaid are feeling the weight of these unanticipated costs.

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S. border have jumped 48 percent since the record in fiscal year 2021 and nearly tripled since fiscal year 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

Last year broke a new record high for illegal border crossings, surpassing more than 3.2 million apprehensions.

And with that sea of humanity comes the need for health care and, in most cases, the inability to pay for it.

In January, CEO of Denver Health Donna Lynne told reporters that 8,000 illegal immigrants made roughly 20,000 visits to the city’s health system in 2023.

The total bill for uncompensated care costs last year to the system totaled $140 million, said Dane Roper, public information officer for Denver Health. More than $10 million of it was attributed to “care for new immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Though the amount of debt assigned to illegal immigrants is a fraction of the total, uncompensated care costs in the Denver Health system have risen dramatically over the past few years.

The total uncompensated costs in 2020 came to $60 million, Mr. Roper said. In 2022, the number doubled, hitting $120 million.

He also said their city hospitals are treating issues such as “respiratory illnesses, GI [gastro-intenstinal] illnesses, dental disease, and some common chronic illnesses such as asthma and diabetes.”

“The perspective we’ve been trying to emphasize all along is that providing healthcare services for an influx of new immigrants who are unable to pay for their care is adding additional strain to an already significant uncompensated care burden,” Mr. Roper said.

He added this is why a local, state, and federal response to the needs of the new illegal immigrant population is “so important.”

Colorado is far from the only state struggling with a trail of unpaid hospital bills.

EMS medics with the Houston Fire Department transport a Mexican woman the hospital in Houston on Aug. 12, 2020. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Dr. Robert Trenschel, CEO of the Yuma Regional Medical Center situated on the Arizona–Mexico border, said on average, illegal immigrants cost up to three times more in human resources to resolve their cases and provide a safe discharge.

“Some [illegal] migrants come with minor ailments, but many of them come in with significant disease,” Dr. Trenschel said during a congressional hearing last year.

“We’ve had migrant patients on dialysis, cardiac catheterization, and in need of heart surgery. Many are very sick.”

He said many illegal immigrants who enter the country and need medical assistance end up staying in the ICU ward for 60 days or more.

A large portion of the patients are pregnant women who’ve had little to no prenatal treatment. This has resulted in an increase in babies being born that require neonatal care for 30 days or longer.

Dr. Trenschel told The Epoch Times last year that illegal immigrants were overrunning healthcare services in his town, leaving the hospital with $26 million in unpaid medical bills in just 12 months.

ER Duty to Care

The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act of 1986 requires that public hospitals participating in Medicare “must medically screen all persons seeking emergency care … regardless of payment method or insurance status.”

The numbers are difficult to gauge as the policy position of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is that it “will not require hospital staff to ask patients directly about their citizenship or immigration status.”

In southern California, again close to the border with Mexico, some hospitals are struggling with an influx of illegal immigrants.

American patients are enduring longer wait times for doctor appointments due to a nursing shortage in the state, two health care professionals told The Epoch Times in January.

A health care worker at a hospital in Southern California, who asked not to be named for fear of losing her job, told The Epoch Times that “the entire health care system is just being bombarded” by a steady stream of illegal immigrants.

“Our healthcare system is so overwhelmed, and then add on top of that tuberculosis, COVID-19, and other diseases from all over the world,” she said.

A Salvadorian man is aided by medical workers after cutting his leg while trying to jump on a truck in Matias Romero, Mexico, on Nov. 2, 2018. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

A newly-enacted law in California provides free healthcare for all illegal immigrants residing in the state. The law could cost taxpayers between $3 billion and $6 billion per year, according to recent estimates by state and federal lawmakers.

In New York, where the illegal immigration crisis has manifested most notably beyond the southern border, city and state officials have long been accommodating of illegal immigrants’ healthcare costs.

Since June 2014, when then-mayor Bill de Blasio set up The Task Force on Immigrant Health Care Access, New York City has worked to expand avenues for illegal immigrants to get free health care.

“New York City has a moral duty to ensure that all its residents have meaningful access to needed health care, regardless of their immigration status or ability to pay,” Mr. de Blasio stated in a 2015 report.

The report notes that in 2013, nearly 64 percent of illegal immigrants were uninsured. Since then, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have settled in the city.

“The uninsured rate for undocumented immigrants is more than three times that of other noncitizens in New York City (20 percent) and more than six times greater than the uninsured rate for the rest of the city (10 percent),” the report states.

The report states that because healthcare providers don’t ask patients about documentation status, the task force lacks “data specific to undocumented patients.”

Some health care providers say a big part of the issue is that without a clear path to insurance or payment for non-emergency services, illegal immigrants are going to the hospital due to a lack of options.

“It’s insane, and it has been for years at this point,” Dana, a Texas emergency room nurse who asked to have her full name omitted, told The Epoch Times.

Working for a major hospital system in the greater Houston area, Dana has seen “a zillion” migrants pass through under her watch with “no end in sight.” She said many who are illegal immigrants arrive with treatable illnesses that require simple antibiotics. “Not a lot of GPs [general practitioners] will see you if you can’t pay and don’t have insurance.”

She said the “undocumented crowd” tends to arrive with a lot of the same conditions. Many find their way to Houston not long after crossing the southern border. Some of the common health issues Dana encounters include dehydration, unhealed fractures, respiratory illnesses, stomach ailments, and pregnancy-related concerns.

“This isn’t a new problem, it’s just worse now,” Dana said.

Emergency room nurses and EMTs tend to patients in hallways at the Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital in Houston on Aug. 18, 2021. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Medicaid Factor

One of the main government healthcare resources illegal immigrants use is Medicaid.

All those who don’t qualify for regular Medicaid are eligible for Emergency Medicaid, regardless of immigration status. By doing this, the program helps pay for the cost of uncompensated care bills at qualifying hospitals.

However, some loopholes allow access to the regular Medicaid benefits. “Qualified noncitizens” who haven’t been granted legal status within five years still qualify if they’re listed as a refugee, an asylum seeker, or a Cuban or Haitian national.

Yet the lion’s share of Medicaid usage by illegal immigrants still comes through state-level benefits and emergency medical treatment.

A Congressional report highlighted data from the CMS, which showed total Medicaid costs for “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in fiscal year 2021 surpassed $7 billion, and totaled more than $5 billion in fiscal 2022.

Both years represent a significant spike from the $3 billion in fiscal 2020.

An employee working with Medicaid who asked to be referred to only as Jennifer out of concern for her job, told The Epoch Times that at a state level, it’s easy for an illegal immigrant to access the program benefits.

Jennifer said that when exceptions are sent from states to CMS for approval, “denial is actually super rare. It’s usually always approved.”

She also said it comes as no surprise that many of the states with the highest amount of Medicaid spending are sanctuary states, which tend to have policies and laws that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

Moreover, Jennifer said there are ways for states to get around CMS guidelines. “It’s not easy, but it can and has been done.”

The first generation of illegal immigrants who arrive to the United States tend to be healthy enough to pass any pre-screenings, but Jennifer has observed that the subsequent generations tend to be sicker and require more access to care. If a family is illegally present, they tend to use Emergency Medicaid or nothing at all.

The Epoch Times asked Medicaid Services to provide the most recent data for the total uncompensated care that hospitals have reported. The agency didn’t respond.

Continue reading over at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 09:45

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Fuel poverty in England is probably 2.5 times higher than government statistics show

The top 40% most energy efficient homes aren’t counted as being in fuel poverty, no matter what their bills or income are.

Published

5 hours ago

on

March 15, 2024

By

Julian Hochgesang|Unsplash

The cap set on how much UK energy suppliers can charge for domestic gas and electricity is set to fall by 15% from April 1 2024. Despite this, prices remain shockingly high. The average household energy bill in 2023 was £2,592 a year, dwarfing the pre-pandemic average of £1,308 in 2019.

The term “fuel poverty” refers to a household’s ability to afford the energy required to maintain adequate warmth and the use of other essential appliances. Quite how it is measured varies from country to country. In England, the government uses what is known as the low income low energy efficiency (Lilee) indicator.

Since energy costs started rising sharply in 2021, UK households’ spending powers have plummeted. It would be reasonable to assume that these increasingly hostile economic conditions have caused fuel poverty rates to rise.

However, according to the Lilee fuel poverty metric, in England there have only been modest changes in fuel poverty incidence year on year. In fact, government statistics show a slight decrease in the nationwide rate, from 13.2% in 2020 to 13.0% in 2023.

Our recent study suggests that these figures are incorrect. We estimate the rate of fuel poverty in England to be around 2.5 times higher than what the government’s statistics show, because the criteria underpinning the Lilee estimation process leaves out a large number of financially vulnerable households which, in reality, are unable to afford and maintain adequate warmth.

Blocks of flats in London.
Household fuel poverty in England is calculated on the basis of the energy efficiency of the home. Igor Sporynin|Unsplash

Energy security

In 2022, we undertook an in-depth analysis of Lilee fuel poverty in Greater London. First, we combined fuel poverty, housing and employment data to provide an estimate of vulnerable homes which are omitted from Lilee statistics.

We also surveyed 2,886 residents of Greater London about their experiences of fuel poverty during the winter of 2022. We wanted to gauge energy security, which refers to a type of self-reported fuel poverty. Both parts of the study aimed to demonstrate the potential flaws of the Lilee definition.

Introduced in 2019, the Lilee metric considers a household to be “fuel poor” if it meets two criteria. First, after accounting for energy expenses, its income must fall below the poverty line (which is 60% of median income).

Second, the property must have an energy performance certificate (EPC) rating of D–G (the lowest four ratings). The government’s apparent logic for the Lilee metric is to quicken the net-zero transition of the housing sector.

In Sustainable Warmth, the policy paper that defined the Lilee approach, the government says that EPC A–C-rated homes “will not significantly benefit from energy-efficiency measures”. Hence, the focus on fuel poverty in D–G-rated properties.

Generally speaking, EPC A–C-rated homes (those with the highest three ratings) are considered energy efficient, while D–G-rated homes are deemed inefficient. The problem with how Lilee fuel poverty is measured is that the process assumes that EPC A–C-rated homes are too “energy efficient” to be considered fuel poor: the main focus of the fuel poverty assessment is a characteristic of the property, not the occupant’s financial situation.

In other words, by this metric, anyone living in an energy-efficient home cannot be considered to be in fuel poverty, no matter their financial situation. There is an obvious flaw here.

Around 40% of homes in England have an EPC rating of A–C. According to the Lilee definition, none of these homes can or ever will be classed as fuel poor. Even though energy prices are going through the roof, a single-parent household with dependent children whose only income is universal credit (or some other form of benefits) will still not be considered to be living in fuel poverty if their home is rated A-C.

The lack of protection afforded to these households against an extremely volatile energy market is highly concerning.

In our study, we estimate that 4.4% of London’s homes are rated A-C and also financially vulnerable. That is around 171,091 households, which are currently omitted by the Lilee metric but remain highly likely to be unable to afford adequate energy.

In most other European nations, what is known as the 10% indicator is used to gauge fuel poverty. This metric, which was also used in England from the 1990s until the mid 2010s, considers a home to be fuel poor if more than 10% of income is spent on energy. Here, the main focus of the fuel poverty assessment is the occupant’s financial situation, not the property.

Were such alternative fuel poverty metrics to be employed, a significant portion of those 171,091 households in London would almost certainly qualify as fuel poor.

This is confirmed by the findings of our survey. Our data shows that 28.2% of the 2,886 people who responded were “energy insecure”. This includes being unable to afford energy, making involuntary spending trade-offs between food and energy, and falling behind on energy payments.

Worryingly, we found that the rate of energy insecurity in the survey sample is around 2.5 times higher than the official rate of fuel poverty in London (11.5%), as assessed according to the Lilee metric.

It is likely that this figure can be extrapolated for the rest of England. If anything, energy insecurity may be even higher in other regions, given that Londoners tend to have higher-than-average household income.

The UK government is wrongly omitting hundreds of thousands of English households from fuel poverty statistics. Without a more accurate measure, vulnerable households will continue to be overlooked and not get the assistance they desperately need to stay warm.

Torran Semple receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant EP/S023305/1.

John Harvey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending