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Is America Doomed To Replicate Europe’s Energy Crisis?

Is America Doomed To Replicate Europe’s Energy Crisis?

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

What is happening in Europe – including the UK, by the way, one of the most active energy transitioners – right now is a cautionary tale of…

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Is America Doomed To Replicate Europe's Energy Crisis?

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • What is happening in Europe - including the UK, by the way, one of the most active energy transitioners - right now is a cautionary tale of magnificent proportions.

  •  Europe was in no particular rush to top up its gas reserves at the time, and neither was Asia.

  • The quick deterioration in the energy situation in Europe should make anyone planning major energy system overhauls think twice before following the exact same scenario that Europe did.

For weeks now, there has been virtually no other news but the energy crunch that surprised Europe in September and has since then gone on to roil every market and industry and spur fears of blackouts, astronomical utility bills, and rising food prices.

The official version of events is that rising energy demand coincided with tight energy supply. The unofficial version has to do with Europe’s energy transition agenda and the possibility it may have rushed to it without enough long-term planning. And now, the U.S. has basically an identical agenda, focusing on boosting wind and solar power generation capacity, reduce demand for oil and gas, and encourage people to buy EVs instead of cars with internal combustion engines.

David Blackmon wrote earlier this week for Forbes that “The energy crisis in Western Europe this summer has been brought on by premature retirements of hundreds of coal and natural gas power plants in favor of massive over-reliance on wind power and, to a lesser extent, solar.”

He went on to note that, “Ironically, this crisis is taking place just as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and congressional Democrats attempt to ram through their massive $3.5 “budget reconciliation” bill that is in large part designed to recreate the European model in the United States.”

Europe currently has some 220 GW in wind power, according to Wind Europe. Solar capacity stood at close to 131 GW at end-2019 but rose strongly last year, prompting media praise of how not even the pandemic could slow down the rollout of cheap solar farms that would bring Europe closer to its net-zero ambitions for 2050. And then suddenly all changed.

Right now, there are factories closing in Europe—including greenhouses in the Netherlands that produce, not to put too fine a point on it, food—and utilities desperately looking to buy coal—those lucky enough to still have coal-fired power plants. Some are switching from gas to oil derivatives, as the latter have become cheaper than natural gas. And official figures such as the IEA’s head Fatih Birol are cautioning against anyone blaming renewables. If anything, the narrative for ever more renewables remains as strong as ever, at least in some circles.

What is happening in Europe—including the UK, by the way, one of the most active energy transitioners—right now is a cautionary tale of magnificent proportions. Even Bloomberg, which a few weeks ago came out with an article stating that Europe’s Energy Crisis Shows the Downside of Fossil Fuels, recently published another, cautioning that Global Energy Crisis Is the First of Many in the Clean-Power Era.

The energy crisis in Europe and, to a considerable extent in China, is showing the rest of the world how not to do an energy transition at a time when many parts of that rest of the world are planning their own transitions. The American plan is, by all means, the most ambitious and generous one, as befits the world’s largest economy. But this also makes it the riskiest transition plan in light of recent European events.

“This massive piece of legislation [the $3.5-trillion Biden administration bill] is loaded up with hundreds of billions of dollars in new subsidies, mandates and incentives for these very same intermittent, low-density energy sources, along with new taxes and draconian regulatory actions designed to drive up the cost of fossil fuels in power generation and transportation,” Blackmon wrote.

Essentially, then, the current U.S. administration is repeating the mistake that the EU made in its ambition to green itself up and cut emissions both deeply and quickly. The consequences of this rushed transition will begin with higher emissions, by the way, as the continent leans heavily on fossil fuels and supply remains tight because of transition efforts that led to years of underinvestment in new production.

In all fairness, there has been a speculative element to the gas price crisis in Europe. In mid-September, Reuters’ Clyde Russell wrote a column that must have passed relatively unnoticed as the noise around price began getting louder. What Russell noted in the column was despite rising prices for LNG on the spot market, flows of the fuel to both Asia and Europe were steady.

In other words, Europe was in no particular rush to top up its gas reserves at the time, and neither was Asia. Everything was business as normal. Europe was importing LNG at a rate of 5-6 million tons monthly over the second quarter, which, Russell said, was the usual seasonal amount. There was no crisis until September.

The speculative element of the crisis deserves separate attention. Its mention here is for the sake of fairness. Because something else happened this year: the wind didn’t blow as much as everyone expected. Major wind power industry players suffered profit drops because of that, and utilities suffered output drops. Demand, however, did not drop, and apparently, solar farms could step in to shoulder the weight, so it was gas that had to be used, however grudgingly, to keep the lights on.

The quick deterioration in the energy situation in Europe should make anyone planning major energy system overhauls think twice before following the exact same scenario that Europe did. It should motivate the development of alternative paths to net zero or maybe even reconsider the necessity for net-zero commitments. Sadly, this is unlikely to happen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/12/2021 - 05:00

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DAX index forecast ahead of the ECB meeting

European stocks rose on Friday on a surge in technology stocks; still, rising inflation became a concern for investors. European inflation was confirmed at 3.4% YoY in September, and concerns grew that the European Central Bank could change its monetary..

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European stocks rose on Friday on a surge in technology stocks; still, rising inflation became a concern for investors. European inflation was confirmed at 3.4% YoY in September, and concerns grew that the European Central Bank could change its monetary policy.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that ECB would maintain its accommodative policy for as long as necessary, but this could change soon. Germany’s DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, but it is still trading below its recent highs.

Germany’s recovery from the pandemic has been strong so far, and the country will release the preliminary estimates of its October Inflation data and its Q3 GDP next week.

Results from many big companies provided a strong start to third-quarter earnings, and investors’ focus will remain on the third-quarter earnings season because many companies have yet to publish their reports.

Next week, Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen,  Linde, MTU Aero Engines, and Daimler are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results.

According to the German Economic Ministry, the outlook for the industry remains positive, but the world’s supply chains crisis represents a serious problem for Germany because of its dependence on exports.

The German economy is particularly vulnerable to shortages of key parts and raw materials, and more than 40% of companies reported they had lost sales because of supply problems.

Many big companies scaled back production of some of their most profitable models, while Opel announced last month that it would shut down a factory in Eisenach until the beginning of 2022.

It is important to say that nearly half of Germany’s economic output depends on exports of cars, machine tools, and other goods, while the semiconductor shortage throttling global car production suggests more pain for the automotive industry.

Despite this, the German Economic Ministry reported that it expected this effect to be temporary while the German central bank expects that the German economy could grow 3.7% this year. The German Economic Ministry added:

Healthy order books give us reason to expect strong recovery impulses from industry, and thanks to that strong overall economic growth

The European Central Bank recently reported that exports from Eurozone would have been at least 7% higher in the first half of the year if not for supply bottlenecks. The European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy next Thursday, which could significantly influence on DAX index in the near term.

15,000 points represent support

Data source: tradingview.com

DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, and if the price jumps above 15,800 points, the next target could be at 16,000 points.

On the other side, if the price falls below strong support that stands at 15,000 points, it would be a strong “sell” signal, and the next target could be around 14,500 points.

Summary

The European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy next Thursday, which could significantly influence on DAX index in the near term. DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, and if the price jumps above 15,800 points, the next target could be at 16,000 points.

The post DAX index forecast ahead of the ECB meeting appeared first on Invezz.

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Poland Will Not Be “Blackmailed” Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Poland Will Not Be "Blackmailed" Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday that his country will not bow to the Europe

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Poland Will Not Be "Blackmailed" Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday that his country will not bow to the European Union’s “blackmail” on deciding legal frameworks of member states, but is open to constructive dialogue.

Arriving at a summit of the 27-member bloc, Morawiecki said that Poland “was as faithful to the rule of law as others and as the EU institutions are.” He added,

“Some EU institutions assume the right to decide on issues to which they have not been entitled to decide. They assume competencies which have not been handed over to them in the treaties.”

Morawiecki said that EU laws maintain supremacy over national laws on matters transferred to the EU. “We don’t agree to the constantly broadening range of competencies but we will, of course, talk about it.”

On Oct. 7, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that some elements of EU law were incompatible with the country’s constitution. This ruling, criticized by Brussels, essentially gave national law primacy over that of the EU.

“It has to be clear: You are a member of a club, you have to abide by the rules of the club. And the most important rule of the club is that the European law is over national law,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told Reuters.

Since the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party took over power in 2015, the ideological conflicts have incrementally increased.

European Parliament President David Sassoli said the Polish tribunal’s ruling challenged “the legal bedrock of our Union,” and that, “never before has the Union been called into question so radically.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen laid out three options as a response.

The first option, “infringement,” is where the commission legally challenges the verdict of the Polish court.

The second option, which is active currently, involves the withholding of funds. Warsaw will not be able to access the 36 billion euros ($42 billion) of COVID-19 pandemic recovery grants. This could lead to a further blockage of around 70 billion euros ($81 billion) set aside for development projects in the 2021-2027 budget.

The third option would be the implementation of Article 7 of the EU treaty which suspends member states of certain rights, including the right to vote on EU decisions.

Morawiecki, however, maintained his country’s stance under repeated criticism in the tense debate on Tuesday. This led to the idea of Poland exiting the bloc which the prime minister dismissed. He said that there were no plans for a “Polexit” as there is considerable support among the Polish for remaining within the EU.

A majority of European countries, including Ireland, France, Sweden, Finland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands were critical of Poland, barring staunch ally Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has not been a supporter of excessive European Union interference in the laws and decisions of member states.

“Poland is one of the best European countries. There is no need for any sanctions, it’s ridiculous,” Orban said.

Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Knapen implied the issue will soon need to be addressed.

“The time for talking is never over, but it doesn’t mean that you cannot take action in the meantime,”  Knapen said. “It’s going to come soon.”

Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for finding “ways of coming back together,” and warned against isolating Poland, the largest ex-communist EU country of 38 million people.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/23/2021 - 09:20

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Should I invest in Coca-Cola shares after a positive view from Morgan Stanley?

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, registered in August 2021, and the current price stands at $54.45. Coca-Cola declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend last week, and Morgan Stanley continues…

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The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, registered in August 2021, and the current price stands at $54.45. Coca-Cola declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend last week, and Morgan Stanley continues to have a positive view on KO shares.

Morgan Stanley has a positive view

Coca-Cola continues to improve its position in the market, and the board of directors declared a $0.42/quarterly share dividend last week, which will be payable on December 15.

Coca-Cola reported better than expected second-quarter results in July; total revenue has increased by 42% Y/Y to $10.1 billion, which was more than expected, while the GAAP EPS was $0.61 (beats by $0.05).

Through the second quarter, volume trends steadily improved each month, driven by the recovery in markets from the pandemic, and the company’s management expects another EPS beat in Q3.

Coca-Cola expects to deliver organic revenue growth for the 2021 fiscal year of 12% to 14% and comparable EPS growth of 13% to 15% compared with the previous year.

According to the latest news, Molson Coors has signed an exclusive agreement with Coca-Cola to manufacture, market, and distribute Topo Chico Hard Seltzer in Canada. The product is scheduled to launch in the summer of 2022, less than two years after the successful launch in the United States.

Topo Chico Hard Seltzer has garnered a 2.4% share of the U.S. market, and this deal will certainly help Coca-Cola to expand its revenue base further.

Last month, Coca-Cola introduced a new global brand platform called Real Magic with a new campaign, “One Coke Away From Each Other.” This is the first new global platform since 2016, and the company’s stability in a variety of market conditions has revealed its true staying power.

Morgan Stanley has a positive view on KO shares with a price target of $65, representing 20% upside potential. Dara Mohsenian, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, added:

The outlook for Coca-Cola remains positive; we see some headwinds from the recent increase in global COVID cases and slightly lower our FY21 topline forecasts, but remain above consensus in 22/23. We expect a return to outsized sales growth vs. peers post COVID, with improved execution and higher margins.

Technically looking, Coca-Cola shares could advance above the current price levels, but this company is not undervalued with a market capitalization of $234 billion. The book value per share is around $5, and Coca-Cola trades at more than seventeen times TTM EBITDA.

$60 represents strong resistance

Data source: tradingview.com

Coca-Cola shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, and if the price falls below $50 support, the next target could be at $45. On the other side, if the price jumps above the strong resistance that stands at $60, the next target could be at $65 or even above.

Summary

Coca-Cola shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, but Morgan Stanley continues to have a positive view on KO shares with a price target of $65. Coca-Cola continues to improve its position in the market, but this company is not undervalued with a market capitalization of $234 billion.

The post Should I invest in Coca-Cola shares after a positive view from Morgan Stanley? appeared first on Invezz.

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