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Inside the Iranian Bitcoin mining industry

ViraMiner is an Iranian company that sets up Bitcoin mining farms and maintains them. It has two offices in western Tehran, located in separate adjacent buildings.When Magazine visits, its old office is busy on a Monday afternoon. This place is now offici

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ViraMiner is an Iranian company that sets up Bitcoin mining farms and maintains them. It has two offices in western Tehran, located in separate adjacent buildings.

When Magazine visits, its old office is busy on a Monday afternoon. This place is now officially dedicated to its repairing services alone.

Mining devices are stored upon each other in yellow, green and red shelves raised against a wall facing the company secretarys desk. Across the entrance, there is a busy repair room where devices are opened. Power supplies, hash boards and control boards are passed around, discussed and modified.

Bitmain Antminer and MicroBT Whatsminer are a specialty for repairs by the company, whose personnel are all young tech enthusiasts. Mina Jahanbakhshi, one of the three female employees present there, gives a tour around the office and leads me to a room next to the repair section, which is being prepared for new employees who have been hired to help the company keep up with its growing demand.

Electricity consumption peak in Irans hot summer has just passed and a presidential ban on power-intensive crypto mining has recently been lifted. The company, therefore, expects busy days ahead.

White new desks are put next to a wall toward the end of the quiet room and the extra repairing equipment has yet to arrive.

The waiting period for repairing equipment is currently two weeks, she says. We are adding new personnel to speed up the repairing process.

Mining has grown significantly in Iran over the past few years.

People are getting more familiar with mining, Jahanbakhshi says. Its an interesting and attractive field. It is growing worldwide, and likewise in Iran.

 

 

Iran mine
ViraMiner is an Iranian company. (Supplied)

 

Small community

As another sign of a growing business, the company is preparing an additional office in a separate building nearby. The air in the under-construction workplace is teeming the odor of fresh paint.

Omid Alavi, ViraMiners CEO, is having a meeting a few steps from construction workers doing plasterwork on the walls.

There is no place to have an interview, so we move to the neighboring apartment where an office for another company is being prepared. Alavi exchanges a few jokes with the people in the neighboring office. A person unfamiliar with their relationship would assume the two offices belong to the same company.

These are our competitors, Alavi says jokingly as we walk past a desk across the entrance. The crypto community is really small.

Alavi tells Magazine that he established the company with two other partners back in 2016.

In 2017-2018, the Bitcoin hype gained momentum. Many got interested in cryptocurrency and this led to the building of many mining farms in Iran. We put our focus on the setting up and the maintenance of the farms. We generally became a specialized company in this sector.

Despite ups and downs, ViraMiner has seen overall growth in recent years.

In the past four to five years, the number of our personnel has increased to nearly 70. We created a specialized repair services unit, where 16-17 trained personnel repair mining equipment, he says.

 

 

 

 

We had some of our staff do courses in Chinas Bitmain Technologies Ltd and MicroBT. We also invited experts from China to train our staff here.

ViraMiner was initially established as an underground company. But, in 2019, when mining was recognized by the authorities as an industry, Alavi and his colleagues received permits to be an authorized company active in the field.

Simultaneously, we have tried to help the government make regulations for mining, he says.

According to the Iranian Mining Association, two-thirds of Iran’s Bitcoin mining is unauthorized.

 

 

Bitcoin mining is big business in Iran.

 

Government supervision

Iran accounts for an estimated 4.5% to 7% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. The extensive reach of the industry has prompted the Iranian government to increase its supervision of mining.

However, the government has concerns with the industry due to the sector’s consumption of Irans heavily subsidized electricity, as well as a sneaking suspicion that illegal miners are evading taxes and duties.

 

 

 

 

Moreover, the government has shown a desire to turn mining into an opportunity to compensate, at least in part, for an almost-complete embargo on its banking and oil industries due to international sanctions.

Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said in May that Iran’s Bitcoin production had hit revenues close to $1 billion a year at the countrys then-level of mining.

The former head of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Abdonasser Hemmati said in March that authorized farms will need to deposit their mined Bitcoin on exchanges specified by the CBI. Importers can then use Bitcoin as a source of foreign currency to pay for the goods purchased from overseas sellers.

But, despite many efforts to make laws efficient and clear, the regulations have still failed to satisfy mining businesses.

Miners complain that the governments tariff scheme paying the export price for electricity is unreasonable and that it makes mining less attractive in Iran.

Regulations, especially those proposed by the CBI, are unclear and not yet operational, miners say.

So far, the government hasnt created operational infrastructures for this, says Alavi.

 

 

 

 

The government legislation puts forth two options for Bitcoin miners. They say either you can import products under the supervision of the Central Bank and be exempt from taxes or if you want to keep your Bitcoin, you need to pay your taxes even though tax instructions for mining are unclear, too.

Javad, a Tehran-based mining expert, tells Magazine he believes that clear regulations are crucial for the growth of the mining industry in Iran. He requests anonymity due to security concerns in Iran over speaking to foreign media, but he’s a hardware engineer with five years of experience in Irans mining industry.

Mining is very attractive in terms of its revenue in countries like Iran, where income per capita is relatively low and there is a struggle with a high inflation rate, he says,

The role of regulations is utterly important to assure the robustness of the industry and to keep it from slipping into the shadows. If we have regulations that are a win-win for both the government and the businesses, miners would definitely be willing to come out of the shadows. Though, at the moment, the Energy Ministry has a one-sided view of this issue.

He hopes that the government would recognize the potential in the sector for creating jobs and prosperity in Irans ailing economy.

Bitcoin mining could be used by Iran to evade sanctions. But, if we decide to use this potential, we need to accept it completely. It means that Iran should have the required regulations to create domestic mining pools in case international pools decide to block Iranian miners, he says.

If Iran wants to use transactions on Bitcoins network in favor of its national interest, it needs to pay special attention to mining and make certain local rearrangements.

 

 

Tehran
Part of the Tehran city skyline

 

Massive crackdown

Despite the governments newly found use for domestically mined Bitcoin, Irans poor power infrastructures have forced it to seasonally unplug farms that are on its watch.

In late May, authorities banned crypto mining for nearly four months as the country faced major power cuts in many cities.

This led to a drop in revenue for many mining businesses, including that of ViraMiner.

We went into seasonal hibernating for four months, Alavi says laughing. We didnt have much revenue through unauthorized miners either because the government was putting so much pressure on them and they were mostly scared off.

So far, Iranian authorities have seized 221,390 mining devices according to Irans State News Agency IRNA, citing the state-owned Iran Grid Management Company.

 

 

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The report said that the seized miners would have consumed 624.7 megawatts of electricity.

The Energy Ministry says Irans electricity consumption can hit a peak of 66 gigawatts in the summer. This is much higher than the countrys 55-gigawatts power generation capacity.

Meanwhile, according to Irans Blockchain Association, the overall mining consumption could be less than 1 gigawatt. This includes more than 600 megawatts consumed by unauthorized mining alongside more than 300 megawatts related to authorized farms.

Mining accounts for less than 10% of electricity issues and power cuts in Iran, Javad explains.

The Energy Ministry has not been able to increase the number of its power plants. This should have taken place as part of a plan to raise power generation capacity to keep pace with annual growth both in domestic and industrial electricity consumption.

He says that the mining industry has become a scapegoat for poor power infrastructures, as well as mismanagement on the part of the government.

Many private power plants have not been able to undertake maintenance and overhaul operations on their worn-out facilities. This is because their payments have been long overdue, he says, referring to payments due from the state. So, they are not able to operate at full capacity.

Difficult to trace

While authorities have focused on big farms operating at industrial and agricultural facilities, small-scale mining has had much of a chance to evade the governments radars.

Home miners, in particular, are more difficult to trace.

Tehran
Electricity consumption is a big issue in Iran.

Many Iranians have tried, in recent years, to set up one or two mining devices at home to be able to earn extra income at a time of economic hardship and high unemployment.

In 2019, home mining accounted for 2% of total unauthorized mining in Iran, according to Irans Moj News Agency. The number rose to 6% and 12% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

I used my miner for nearly six months at home, Hoda, a Tehran-based miner, tells Magazine.

The 28-year-old art graduate makes handmade ceramics and pottery for a living.

I dont think the government can trace one or two miners set up at home, she says. Ive been able to mine 0.1 Bitcoin and Im planning to continue.

Mostafa, who has been mining Bitcoin at his apartment in Tehran, says: It is profitable, indeed, because both the value of the equipment and the price of Bitcoin go up over time.

But, it is difficult to do this at home because of the noise and the heat that it gives off. It could really become annoying.

Both interviewees wanted their last names undisclosed due to concerns over the illegal nature of mining in Iran.

Mostafa says that the government would finally need to accept crypto mining and trading as legal businesses.

No matter how much you confront technology, youll lose anyway. The government has to come to terms with crypto. It helps create revenue. Many countries are compensating for some part of their economic difficulties with crypto, he says.

12 million traders

Despite profiting from crypto mining and having sold his mined Bitcoin on Iranian online exchanges, Mostafa expresses concern over lax operations of exchanges in Iran.

One of the exchanges shut down its business a while ago. They stole peoples money. I dont know where its office was, he says.

You cant really trust these exchanges. If you go to their website, few of them have an address or a telephone number.

The number of Iranian online exchanges has risen significantly alongside the growing number of Iranians investing in cryptocurrencies.

A study published in May said that nearly 12 million Iranians, out of a population of 85 million, had invested in crypto. It said 62% of the investors entered six months prior to the study when cryptocurrencies were seeing an increase in value.

Mohsen, an Iranian trading expert, emphasizes the role of the pandemic and the shutting down of many small businesses as reasons for public attention toward investment in cryptocurrencies.

Crypto has been the most accessible market for Iranians as sanctions restrict their access to other international financial markets, he says.

 

 

 

 

Many enter the crypto market during a bull run and get a Wolf of Wall Street kind of impression. But, I think people would not have a good memory of crypto in the end, as they are mostly unaware of the technicalities of trading.

He expresses doubts about the possibility of the government creating effective regulations for trading.

Crypto could be a stepping stone for Irans economy. But, this opportunity will eventually go to waste because our regulating system is flawed, he says.

Much greater potential

My interview with Alavi, ViraMiners CEO, becomes interrupted when he receives a phone call.

The office is now quieter. It takes only a minute before he hangs up, complaining half-jokingly about the conversation that he had on the phone.

In the mining industry, nothing goes based on a plan. Seriously. In the past four to five years, I havent done one single project that was orderly, routine and standard, he says.

The mining sector is always in a rush. The investor wants its rigs immediately turned on and they want the farm to start operating as soon as possible. This is because network difficulty might suddenly see an extreme surge and this could cause a drop in revenue. Your business plan is volatile.

Much capital has, so far, been brought to the mining industry by investors in and outside Iran.

Irans largest farms are run through Chinese investment. They are set up in Free Economic Zones, where companies are offered exemption from taxes and duties.

The biggest farm in Iran, established by Iran and China Investment Development Group, is based in a free zone in the southern Kerman Province. It is a 200-megawatts farm with a 2,000,000 terahash data center and 70,000 ASIC miners, according to the firms website.

A 30-40-megawatts farm set up by the Chinese in Maku FEZ in Irans northwestern region comes next, followed by smaller 4 to 5-megawatts farms, according to Alavi.

 

 

 

 

He estimates that $180 million to $220 million has been invested in authorized mining in Iran, though the potential for investment is much higher if obstacles on the governments end are removed.

Regulations related to the price of power have a few flaws. One of them is that the government set the export price as the price of electricity for mining, which we think is high. The other is the correlation between the price of power and the US dollar to rial rate. The government said in its instructions that, if rials value against the US dollar fluctuates more than 10%, the price of power will change too, he says.

This causes investors to feel uneasy. Due to a continuous increase in the value of the dollar against rial, the price of power has kept rising. Its not a stable factor to include in your calculations as an investor. So, big investors never touch this sector.

Even Bitcoins increasing value could fail in shielding investors from losing profit. Any profit can be cut by a hike in the price of exported electricity due to a decline in the value of the rial.

Whenever crypto prices increase, rial loses value, resulting in a rise in the cost of power. The price of electricity has risen since the beginning of this year. Previously we would give $0.04-0.05 per kilowatt, which has reached $0.07-0.08. This spooks investors, he says.

Despite dissatisfaction about the circumstances that authorized mining is currently struggling with, Alavi says he is optimistic about minings future in Iran.

I dont think Iran will be able to afford the costs of crypto assets going underground. So, it will create proper regulations for them, he says.

 

 

 

 

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis…

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Juan Gaertner/Shutterstock)

Surviving COVID-19 may leave you at heightened risk of developing debilitating autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and lupus for up to a year after infection, according to new research.

However, the study also found that vaccinating against the virus could significantly lower your chances of developing these potentially life-altering inflammatory conditions.

COVID-19 Infection Severity Plays a Big Role

The study, published in Annals of Internal Medicine, analyzed national claims data from over 10 million Korean and 12 million Japanese patients aged 20 and above diagnosed with COVID-19 between January 2020 and December 2021. The dominant strains were the wild-type virus and the delta variant during this period. COVID-19 patients were compared with matched flu patients and uninfected controls.

A little less than 4 percent of Korean participants had a history of COVID-19, and about 1 percent had a history of flu. Among Japanese participants, about 8 percent had been infected with COVID-19, and slightly less than 1 percent had been infected with flu.

Researchers found that COVID-19 patients had a 25 percent to 30 percent increased risk of new-onset autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRDs) 30 days after infection compared to uninfected individuals.

More severe COVID-19 was linked to a greater risk of new-onset, untreated, and treated AIRD, with both wild-type and delta variants associated with AIRD risk. The risk of new-onset AIRD seemed to decline over time and trailed off after the first year.

COVID-19 infection is associated with numerous autoimmune disorders, Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, a board-certified internist specializing in the treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia, told The Epoch Times. “For example, there is a marked increase in hyperthyroidism after COVID caused by autoimmune attack on the thyroid glands,” he said. With the immune system already on high alert from the virus and “having trouble shutting down,” it is not surprising that the body’s own tissues will often become collateral damage, he noted.

So this new study simply confirms what is already expected,” Dr. Teitelbaum added.

Vaccines Reduce Autoimmune Risk, but Only in Mild Cases

The findings also suggest that COVID-19 vaccination reduced the rate of AIRDs among patients who received one to two or more doses. This reduced risk was observed whether the vaccine used was mRNA-based or viral-vector type.

However, the reduced AIRD risk was only linked to patients with mild COVID-19 infection, not those with moderate or severe infection.

This is noteworthy, given growing evidence suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination could cause new-onset autoimmune diseases, including autoimmune glomerulonephritis, autoimmune hepatitis, and AIRDs.

AIRDs Increase Risk of Other Severe Conditions

AIRDs involve inflammation of the joints or connective tissue caused by attacks from the body’s immune system. These diseases can affect multiple organs and systems, leading to a wide range of symptoms and complications.

Some common AIRDs include:

  • Rheumatoid arthritis (RA): RA is a chronic autoimmune disorder that primarily affects joints, causing inflammation, pain, stiffness, and swelling. Untreated RA can lead to joint damage, deformities, disability, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and lung problems over time.
  • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): SLE is a systemic autoimmune disease affecting various organs and tissues like skin, joints, kidneys, heart, lungs, and brain. Symptoms may include fatigue, joint pain, skin rashes, fever, and organ inflammation. Complications involve kidney damage, cardiovascular disease, neurological disorders, and increased infection susceptibility.
  • Ankylosing spondylitis (AS): AS primarily affects the spine and sacroiliac joints, causing inflammation and eventual vertebrae fusion, leading to spinal stiffness and limited mobility. It can also impact other joints, eyes, and organs. Complications may include spinal deformities, eye inflammation, and cardiovascular problems.
  • Psoriatic arthritis (PsA): PsA is an autoimmune condition with joint inflammation and skin lesions (psoriasis). In addition to joint pain, swelling, and stiffness, PsA can cause nail changes, eye inflammation, and tendon inflammation (enthesitis). Complications could include diabetes and high blood pressure.
  • Sjögren’s syndrome: Sjögren’s syndrome primarily affects moisture-producing glands, leading to dry eyes and mouth. However, it can also cause systemic issues like joint pain, fatigue, and organ involvement of the kidneys, lungs, or nervous system. It increases the risk of lymphoma and other autoimmune diseases.
  • Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma): Scleroderma is characterized by excessive collagen production, causing thickening and hardening of skin and connective tissues. It can also affect internal organs like the lungs, heart, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. Complications may include gastrointestinal bleeding, lung and heart problems, and bowel obstruction.

Inexpensive Treatment Available but Ignored: Expert

AIRDs significantly impact quality of life and require long-term management with medications, physical therapy, and lifestyle modifications. Regular monitoring and comprehensive care from health care professionals are essential for managing these conditions and minimizing health risks.

However, effective yet inexpensive treatments for these conditions are largely ignored, Dr. Teitelbaum said.

Low-dose naltrexone, costing less than $1 a day, has been shown to help chronic pain or autoimmune conditions, he added. Additionally, highly absorbed curcumin and Boswellia serrata, found in curcumin, were proven as effective as Celebrex in treating rheumatic arthritis in a head-to-head study, he noted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/20/2024 - 02:45

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IVI starts technology transfer to Biological E. Limited to manufacture oral cholera vaccine for India and global markets

  Credit: IVI IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international…

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Credit: IVI

  • IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025
  • Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international markets

 

March 20, 2024, SEOUL, Republic of Korea and HYDERABAD, India — The International Vaccine Institute (IVI), an international organization with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health, today announced that it has commenced a technology transfer of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV-S) to Biological E. Limited (BE), a leading India-based Vaccines and Pharmaceutical Company.

 

Following the signing of a technology license agreement in November last year, IVI has begun providing the technical information, know-how, and materials to produce OCV-S at BE facilities and will continue to support necessary clinical development and regulatory approvals. IVI and BE entered this partnership during an unprecedented surge of cholera outbreaks worldwide and aim to increase the volume of low-cost cholera vaccine in India as well as the global public market.

 

IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 and the oral cholera vaccine will be manufactured for India and international markets by Biological E. Limited.

 

Dr. Jerome Kim, Director General of IVI, said: “In an era of heightened risk of poverty-associated infectious diseases such as cholera, the world needs a sustainable source of high-quality, affordable vaccines and committed manufacturers to supply them. We are pleased to partner with Biological E., a company with a proven history of making life-saving vaccines accessible globally, to address this supply gap and protect communities from this deadly, though preventable, disease.”

 

Ms. Mahima Datla, Managing Director, Biological E. Limited, said: “We are glad to be in collaboration with IVI for the manufacture of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine. Our efforts are aimed to not only combat the disease but to also be part of a sustained legacy of innovation, collaboration, and health stewardship. Together with IVI, we are happy to be shaping a healthier and more resilient future by making this vaccine accessible globally.”

 

This technology transfer and licensing agreement is the sixth of its kind for IVI, transferring such technology to manufacturers in India, the Republic of Korea, Bangladesh, and South Africa. All these partnerships have led to or seek to achieve, pre-qualification (PQ) from the World Health Organization, a designation that enables global agencies such as UNICEF to procure the vaccine for the global market. BE already has 9 vaccines with WHO PQ in its portfolio, and IVI and BE will pursue WHO PQ for OCV-S as well, following national licensure in India.

 

Dr. Julia Lynch, Director of IVI’s Cholera Program, said: “The cholera situation is dire, and the availability and use of oral cholera vaccine is an essential part of a multifaceted approach to cholera control and prevention, especially as outbreaks increase and the global vaccine supply remains strained. With more manufacturers like BE entering the market, the future supply situation looks strong. IVI remains committed to ensuring the availability of the oral cholera vaccine and to developing new and improved vaccines that are equally safe, effective, and affordable and made around the world, for the world.”

 

OCV-S is a simplified formulation of OCV with the potential to lower production costs while increasing production capacity for current and aspiring OCV manufacturers. IVI’s development of OCV-S and ongoing technology transfers are part of an institutional strategy to confront cholera with 3 main goals: 1) Ensure supply of OCV 2) Improve cholera vaccines 3) Support OCV use and introduction. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been supporting IVI’s cholera program since 2000 and is funding this latest technology transfer to BE.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)

The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO), and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that also achieved WHO prequalification in early 2024.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, an Africa Regional Office in Rwanda, a Country Office in Austria, and a Country and Project Office in Kenya. IVI additionally co-founded the Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute in Hong Kong and hosts Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

 

About Biological E. Limited

Biological E. Limited (BE), a Hyderabad-based Pharmaceuticals & Biologics Company founded in 1953, is the first private sector biological products company in India and the first pharmaceutical company in Southern India. BE develops, manufactures and supplies vaccines and therapeutics. BE supplies its vaccines to more than 130 countries and its therapeutic products are sold in India, the USA and Europe. BE currently has 8 WHO-prequalified vaccines and 10 USFDA approved Generic Injectables in its portfolio. Recently, BE has received Emergency Use Listing (EUL) from the WHO for CORBEVAX®, the COVID-19 vaccine. Recently, DCGI has approved BE’S 14-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine.

In recent years, BE has embarked on new initiatives for organizational expansion such as developing specialty injectable products for global markets as a means to manufacture APIs sustainably and developing novel vaccines for the global market.

Please follow us on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter

 

 

MEDIA CONTACTS

IVI

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int

 

Biological E. Limited

K. Vijay Amruth Raj
Email: Vijay.Kammari@biologicale.com
www.biologicale.com/news


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Apartment permits are back to recession lows. Will mortgage rates follow?

If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long.

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In Tuesday’s report, the 5-unit housing permits data hit the same levels we saw in the COVID-19 recession. Once the backlog of apartments is finished, those jobs will be at risk, which traditionally means mortgage rates would fall soon after, as they have in previous economic cycles.

However, this is happening while single-family permits are still rising as the rate of builder buy-downs and the backlog of single-family homes push single-family permits and starts higher. It is a tale of two markets — something I brought up on CNBC earlier this year to explain why this trend matters with housing starts data because the two marketplaces are heading in opposite directions.

The question is: Will the uptick in single-family permits keep mortgage rates higher than usual? As long as jobless claims stay low, the falling 5-unit apartment permit data might not lead to lower mortgage rates as it has in previous cycles.

From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.

When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.

Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.



On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.

From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.

As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.



Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.

Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.

If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.

Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.

The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.

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