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Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On Global Credit Conditions, Report Says

Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On Global Credit Conditions, Report Says
PR Newswire
LONDON, May 18, 2022

LONDON, May 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions, combined with heightened geopolitical uncertainty and linge…

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Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On Global Credit Conditions, Report Says

PR Newswire

LONDON, May 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions, combined with heightened geopolitical uncertainty and lingering COVID-19 lockdowns in China, fuel persistently high inflation, market volatility, and rising yields, and pose an increasingly challenging outlook for credit, S&P Global Ratings said today in a report "Global Credit Conditions Special Update: Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On."

"For now, credit ratings are showing resilience as they benefit from still largely growing economies, consumption supported by household savings, and record corporate cash balances," said Alexandra Dimitrijevic, S&P Global Ratings Global Head of Analytical Research and Development. "Rating actions globally in April and May were balanced, outside of countries directly impacted by the conflict, and the net outlook bias, which speaks to forward-looking rating trends, remains close to neutral. The distress ratio for U.S. speculative-grade borrowers, an indicator of future default trends, is increasing but remains well below the five-year average."

"Credit ratings could come under more pressure if the situation persists for more than one or two quarters, or deteriorates further, as households struggle with falling real incomes and rising energy and food prices, businesses face weaker demand conditions and margin erosion, and financing conditions ratchet tighter. Defaults could start picking up toward the end of the year as we get into 2023."

Our interim credit conditions update follows S&P Global economists' downward revisions to global macroeconomic base-case forecasts, reflecting that key forecast assumptions are likely to play out over a longer period and be more damaging than we previously expected. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and growing tensions with NATO are more protracted than expected. Inflation remains stubbornly high, fueled by food and rising commodity prices. The Chinese authorities are continuing to lock down major cities and regions to stem COVID-19. And the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks are ramping up their fight to rein in inflation pressures.

From a credit perspective, this represents a wind shift as credit prospects become more challenging. While widespread concerns relating to recessionary scenarios in advanced economies have not been realized so far, they are a growing downside risk for later in the year and into 2023, particularly if the war in Ukraine drags on and escalates, or the authorities struggle to contain the pandemic in China. The Fed is also treading a fine line in reining back inflation without destabilizing financial markets, undermining confidence, or triggering a hard landing for the economy.

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Media Contacts:

Michelle James, London  +44 (0)7971 123 692
michelle.james@spglobal.com

S&P Global Ratings is the world's leading provider of independent credit ratings. Our ratings are essential to driving growth, providing transparency and helping educate market participants so they can make decisions with confidence. We have more than 1 million credit ratings outstanding on government, corporate, financial sector and structured finance entities and securities. We offer an independent view of the market built on a unique combination of broad perspective and local insight. We provide our opinions and research about relative credit risk; market participants gain independent information to help support the growth of transparent, liquid debt markets worldwide.

S&P Global Ratings is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/ratings.

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis…

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Juan Gaertner/Shutterstock)

Surviving COVID-19 may leave you at heightened risk of developing debilitating autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and lupus for up to a year after infection, according to new research.

However, the study also found that vaccinating against the virus could significantly lower your chances of developing these potentially life-altering inflammatory conditions.

COVID-19 Infection Severity Plays a Big Role

The study, published in Annals of Internal Medicine, analyzed national claims data from over 10 million Korean and 12 million Japanese patients aged 20 and above diagnosed with COVID-19 between January 2020 and December 2021. The dominant strains were the wild-type virus and the delta variant during this period. COVID-19 patients were compared with matched flu patients and uninfected controls.

A little less than 4 percent of Korean participants had a history of COVID-19, and about 1 percent had a history of flu. Among Japanese participants, about 8 percent had been infected with COVID-19, and slightly less than 1 percent had been infected with flu.

Researchers found that COVID-19 patients had a 25 percent to 30 percent increased risk of new-onset autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRDs) 30 days after infection compared to uninfected individuals.

More severe COVID-19 was linked to a greater risk of new-onset, untreated, and treated AIRD, with both wild-type and delta variants associated with AIRD risk. The risk of new-onset AIRD seemed to decline over time and trailed off after the first year.

COVID-19 infection is associated with numerous autoimmune disorders, Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, a board-certified internist specializing in the treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia, told The Epoch Times. “For example, there is a marked increase in hyperthyroidism after COVID caused by autoimmune attack on the thyroid glands,” he said. With the immune system already on high alert from the virus and “having trouble shutting down,” it is not surprising that the body’s own tissues will often become collateral damage, he noted.

So this new study simply confirms what is already expected,” Dr. Teitelbaum added.

Vaccines Reduce Autoimmune Risk, but Only in Mild Cases

The findings also suggest that COVID-19 vaccination reduced the rate of AIRDs among patients who received one to two or more doses. This reduced risk was observed whether the vaccine used was mRNA-based or viral-vector type.

However, the reduced AIRD risk was only linked to patients with mild COVID-19 infection, not those with moderate or severe infection.

This is noteworthy, given growing evidence suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination could cause new-onset autoimmune diseases, including autoimmune glomerulonephritis, autoimmune hepatitis, and AIRDs.

AIRDs Increase Risk of Other Severe Conditions

AIRDs involve inflammation of the joints or connective tissue caused by attacks from the body’s immune system. These diseases can affect multiple organs and systems, leading to a wide range of symptoms and complications.

Some common AIRDs include:

  • Rheumatoid arthritis (RA): RA is a chronic autoimmune disorder that primarily affects joints, causing inflammation, pain, stiffness, and swelling. Untreated RA can lead to joint damage, deformities, disability, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and lung problems over time.
  • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): SLE is a systemic autoimmune disease affecting various organs and tissues like skin, joints, kidneys, heart, lungs, and brain. Symptoms may include fatigue, joint pain, skin rashes, fever, and organ inflammation. Complications involve kidney damage, cardiovascular disease, neurological disorders, and increased infection susceptibility.
  • Ankylosing spondylitis (AS): AS primarily affects the spine and sacroiliac joints, causing inflammation and eventual vertebrae fusion, leading to spinal stiffness and limited mobility. It can also impact other joints, eyes, and organs. Complications may include spinal deformities, eye inflammation, and cardiovascular problems.
  • Psoriatic arthritis (PsA): PsA is an autoimmune condition with joint inflammation and skin lesions (psoriasis). In addition to joint pain, swelling, and stiffness, PsA can cause nail changes, eye inflammation, and tendon inflammation (enthesitis). Complications could include diabetes and high blood pressure.
  • Sjögren’s syndrome: Sjögren’s syndrome primarily affects moisture-producing glands, leading to dry eyes and mouth. However, it can also cause systemic issues like joint pain, fatigue, and organ involvement of the kidneys, lungs, or nervous system. It increases the risk of lymphoma and other autoimmune diseases.
  • Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma): Scleroderma is characterized by excessive collagen production, causing thickening and hardening of skin and connective tissues. It can also affect internal organs like the lungs, heart, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. Complications may include gastrointestinal bleeding, lung and heart problems, and bowel obstruction.

Inexpensive Treatment Available but Ignored: Expert

AIRDs significantly impact quality of life and require long-term management with medications, physical therapy, and lifestyle modifications. Regular monitoring and comprehensive care from health care professionals are essential for managing these conditions and minimizing health risks.

However, effective yet inexpensive treatments for these conditions are largely ignored, Dr. Teitelbaum said.

Low-dose naltrexone, costing less than $1 a day, has been shown to help chronic pain or autoimmune conditions, he added. Additionally, highly absorbed curcumin and Boswellia serrata, found in curcumin, were proven as effective as Celebrex in treating rheumatic arthritis in a head-to-head study, he noted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/20/2024 - 02:45

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IVI starts technology transfer to Biological E. Limited to manufacture oral cholera vaccine for India and global markets

  Credit: IVI IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international…

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Credit: IVI

  • IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025
  • Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international markets

 

March 20, 2024, SEOUL, Republic of Korea and HYDERABAD, India — The International Vaccine Institute (IVI), an international organization with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health, today announced that it has commenced a technology transfer of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV-S) to Biological E. Limited (BE), a leading India-based Vaccines and Pharmaceutical Company.

 

Following the signing of a technology license agreement in November last year, IVI has begun providing the technical information, know-how, and materials to produce OCV-S at BE facilities and will continue to support necessary clinical development and regulatory approvals. IVI and BE entered this partnership during an unprecedented surge of cholera outbreaks worldwide and aim to increase the volume of low-cost cholera vaccine in India as well as the global public market.

 

IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 and the oral cholera vaccine will be manufactured for India and international markets by Biological E. Limited.

 

Dr. Jerome Kim, Director General of IVI, said: “In an era of heightened risk of poverty-associated infectious diseases such as cholera, the world needs a sustainable source of high-quality, affordable vaccines and committed manufacturers to supply them. We are pleased to partner with Biological E., a company with a proven history of making life-saving vaccines accessible globally, to address this supply gap and protect communities from this deadly, though preventable, disease.”

 

Ms. Mahima Datla, Managing Director, Biological E. Limited, said: “We are glad to be in collaboration with IVI for the manufacture of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine. Our efforts are aimed to not only combat the disease but to also be part of a sustained legacy of innovation, collaboration, and health stewardship. Together with IVI, we are happy to be shaping a healthier and more resilient future by making this vaccine accessible globally.”

 

This technology transfer and licensing agreement is the sixth of its kind for IVI, transferring such technology to manufacturers in India, the Republic of Korea, Bangladesh, and South Africa. All these partnerships have led to or seek to achieve, pre-qualification (PQ) from the World Health Organization, a designation that enables global agencies such as UNICEF to procure the vaccine for the global market. BE already has 9 vaccines with WHO PQ in its portfolio, and IVI and BE will pursue WHO PQ for OCV-S as well, following national licensure in India.

 

Dr. Julia Lynch, Director of IVI’s Cholera Program, said: “The cholera situation is dire, and the availability and use of oral cholera vaccine is an essential part of a multifaceted approach to cholera control and prevention, especially as outbreaks increase and the global vaccine supply remains strained. With more manufacturers like BE entering the market, the future supply situation looks strong. IVI remains committed to ensuring the availability of the oral cholera vaccine and to developing new and improved vaccines that are equally safe, effective, and affordable and made around the world, for the world.”

 

OCV-S is a simplified formulation of OCV with the potential to lower production costs while increasing production capacity for current and aspiring OCV manufacturers. IVI’s development of OCV-S and ongoing technology transfers are part of an institutional strategy to confront cholera with 3 main goals: 1) Ensure supply of OCV 2) Improve cholera vaccines 3) Support OCV use and introduction. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been supporting IVI’s cholera program since 2000 and is funding this latest technology transfer to BE.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)

The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO), and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that also achieved WHO prequalification in early 2024.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, an Africa Regional Office in Rwanda, a Country Office in Austria, and a Country and Project Office in Kenya. IVI additionally co-founded the Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute in Hong Kong and hosts Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

 

About Biological E. Limited

Biological E. Limited (BE), a Hyderabad-based Pharmaceuticals & Biologics Company founded in 1953, is the first private sector biological products company in India and the first pharmaceutical company in Southern India. BE develops, manufactures and supplies vaccines and therapeutics. BE supplies its vaccines to more than 130 countries and its therapeutic products are sold in India, the USA and Europe. BE currently has 8 WHO-prequalified vaccines and 10 USFDA approved Generic Injectables in its portfolio. Recently, BE has received Emergency Use Listing (EUL) from the WHO for CORBEVAX®, the COVID-19 vaccine. Recently, DCGI has approved BE’S 14-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine.

In recent years, BE has embarked on new initiatives for organizational expansion such as developing specialty injectable products for global markets as a means to manufacture APIs sustainably and developing novel vaccines for the global market.

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MEDIA CONTACTS

IVI

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int

 

Biological E. Limited

K. Vijay Amruth Raj
Email: Vijay.Kammari@biologicale.com
www.biologicale.com/news


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Apartment permits are back to recession lows. Will mortgage rates follow?

If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long.

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In Tuesday’s report, the 5-unit housing permits data hit the same levels we saw in the COVID-19 recession. Once the backlog of apartments is finished, those jobs will be at risk, which traditionally means mortgage rates would fall soon after, as they have in previous economic cycles.

However, this is happening while single-family permits are still rising as the rate of builder buy-downs and the backlog of single-family homes push single-family permits and starts higher. It is a tale of two markets — something I brought up on CNBC earlier this year to explain why this trend matters with housing starts data because the two marketplaces are heading in opposite directions.

The question is: Will the uptick in single-family permits keep mortgage rates higher than usual? As long as jobless claims stay low, the falling 5-unit apartment permit data might not lead to lower mortgage rates as it has in previous cycles.

From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.

When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.

Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.



On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.

From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.

As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.



Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.

Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.

If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.

Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.

The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.

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