Connect with us

International

Industry Icon Seeing Housing “Hyperinflation”

Industry Icon Seeing Housing "Hyperinflation"

It has been a week of staggering home prices increase news which has seen the median existing home price surge to a record $350,000…

… up a whopping 24% from a year ago…

… while…

Published

on

Industry Icon Seeing Housing "Hyperinflation"

It has been a week of staggering home prices increase news which has seen the median existing home price surge to a record $350,000...

... up a whopping 24% from a year ago...

... while today we learned that the median new home price surged 18%, also to a record $374,400 (the average selling price was also a record $430,600)...

... the result being a collapse in homebuyer sentiment...

... leading to a sharp slowdown in actual sale transactions, as the soaring prices start to adversely impact the broader market.

Remarkably summing up what's going on in the housing market, veteran housing analyst Ivy Zelman said she was seeing “hyperinflation” in the US housing "ecosystem" fraught with labor and materials bottlenecks.

Zelman’s warning comes as investors are closely watching whether a broad surge in inflation as the economy recovers from pandemic lockdowns will prove to be transitory. At least it validates one part of a recent Bank of America warning which said that the US is facing "hyperinflation" if transitory. Well we now have the hyperinflation part; for the sake of the dollar and cilivization, one can only hope that BofA is also right about the transitory part.

Speaking in a Wednesday webcast with Walker & Dunlop Chief Executive Officer Willy Walker, CEO of real estate research firm Zelman & Associates cited a truck-driver shortage along with shipping constraints and soaring costs as among the biggest problems homebuilders are facing. She underscored difficulty in moving shingles from Canada to the U.S. in particular, along with kinks in the supply chain for other staple building materials including drywall and insulation.

And, confirming the sudden drop in new transactions, Zelman also warned that home buyers are stretched.

"At some point the consumer cries uncle," she said, quoted by Bloomberg.

She also warned that surging prices today could lead to tumbling prices tomorrow, cautioning about the impact of higher interest rates on home prices and the prospects the Fed may start to taper asset purchases. While more supply is set to come on the market eventually, Zelman sees homebuilder stocks as expensive, and she envisions a tough second half. Her cautious stance would accelerate if rates were to rise.

Perhaps in response to her warning, or today's huge miss in new home sales, homebuilder stocks fell with the S&P homebuilding index closing down 1.2% on Wednesday after paring a drop of as much as 2.5%. Lennar Corp., M/I Homes Inc., PulteGroup Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. were among worst performers. The index has dropped more than 13% from its all-time high in May.

Zelman's "hyperinflation" warning echoes a recent analysis from Bank of America in which the bank's chief economist Michelle Meyer said that the US economy "is facing an imbalance: a burst in demand has been met with constrained supply. Economics 101 tells us that when the demand curve shifts more than the supply curve, prices will rise, which continues until the balance is restored from a combination of slowing demand and greater supply."

This narrative, Meyer said, describes the US housing market. Demand for housing climbed higher in the months following the onset of the pandemic, leaving existing home sales to reach a peak of 6.7 million saar in October, the highest since 2006. This has left builders to scramble to respond, sending building permits to a high of 1.9 million saar in January. The result: home prices and building costs have surged higher.

And while prices are soaring, the long journey to restore the equilibrium has at least started as existing home sales have come off the highs and housing starts have increased. For what it's worth, Bank of America thinks existing home sales will continue to moderate while starts run at a high 1.6 million pace through this year and next until supply has returned to the historical average between 5-6 months, eventually allowing home price appreciation to cool. But, as Meye warns, "this will not be resolved overnight – it will be a long journey to balance the housing market."

So yes, hyperinflation now... and utopia at some indefinite point in the future.

For those curious, BofA has summarized the recent housing trends in charts covering four key themes:

  • Signs from the recent data: Mortgage purchase applications and existing homes sales have been declining this year and are expected to slip further. In contrast, we see upside for new home sales and housing starts but with speed bumps due to high costs.
  • Surveys show discouraged buyers: As shown above, buyer sentiment has fallen to the lowest since 1982, reportedly due to high prices. But yet paradoxically homebuilder sentiment is holding close to record highs given exceptionally low inventory. This can only end in tears.
  • Builders are facing incredible cost pressure: All else equal, the rise in the price in lumber and related products has added over $34K to the price of a new home over the past year. The sharp gains in builder costs are starting to hold back production.
  • Double-digit home price gains are not sustainable: Home prices have soared over the year. The trajectory is unsustainable and price appreciation should cool next year but only slowly given the extreme imbalance between supply and demand

The latest data on the housing market

  • After roaring higher last year, mortgage purchase applications have seen a pullback suggesting a cooling off in housing demand. The 4-week moving average is nearly back to the pre-COVID highs.
  • Mortgage rates have risen this year with the 30yr fixed rate reaching as high as 3.3% in mid-March from a low of 2.8% in February before settling at its recent level of 3.1%. The timing of the rates move coincides with the drop in purchase applications.
  • Looking ahead, most rates strategists expect interest rates to move higher with the 10yr Treasury benchmark rising to 2.15% by 1Q22 from its current level around 1.6%. Higher rates will therefore remain a headwind going forward.

  • Existing home sales showed a similar trajectory as mortgage applications: running currently at 5.80mm saar which is down from the peak last fall but still up from 5.66mn in 2020.
  • The trajectory of new home sales has also cooled, but the data have seen more of a plateau than a pullback with new home sales of 863k saar in April. Through the first four months of 2021, new home sales are averaging 907k saar, which is well above 2020 sales of 828k.
  • Looking ahead, the risks are for existing home sales to head even lower due to the combination of declining affordability and tight inventories. Meanwhile, new home sales may grind higher as these supply challenges funnel demand towards new construction.

  • Housing starts slid by 9.5% mom in April to 1.57mn saar, although few consider this the start of a downturn. Building permits have remained elevated at 1.73mn saar suggesting robust underlying demand for new residential construction.
  • The components of building permits are also promising. Single family permits have been bouncing between 1.1-1.2mn saar and historically run close together with single family starts. Meanwhile, the noisier multifamily sector has been running just under 600k.
  • Housing starts are expected to remain at an elevated trend and grind higher, much like new home sales, totaling 1.6mn in 2021 versus 1.4mn in 2020.

What do the surveys say?

  • Given the demand-supply imbalance in housing, it has become a seller’s market. According to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the share of those believing it is a good time to sell has soared to a record high 80% while the share of those believing it is a good time to buy has dropped to 46%, the lowest since 1982.
  • Buyers have recently been pressured by dwindling affordability, reflecting a combination of higher prices and rising, albeit still low, interest rates. The share of those believing it was a good time to buy due to low prices dropped to a mere 7% in May, while those believing it is a good time due to low interest rates have moderated to 29%. The latter is still the primary buying reason.

  • The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey provides additional evidence that it has become a seller’s market. The net share of respondents who believe it is a good time to buy has dropped to -1% as of April, which is the lowest since the series goes back to 2010.
  • Conversely, the net share who think it is a good time to sell has rebounded to 41%. This compares to the historical high of 47% achieved in 2018.
  • The shifts in sentiment around market conditions supports our view that the trend is lower for existing home sales as the market needs to rebalance

  • The run up in home prices is partly a function of strong demand but also historically tight housing supply, which has been a decade in the making. In order to ease these price pressures, there is a strong need to build.
  • The NAHB housing index, a measure of homebuilder sentiment, reached a record high of 90 in November and has cooled to a robust 83 as of the past two months. Given the need for housing supply, homebuilders are feeling quite optimistic about the outlook.
  • The strength in homebuilder sentiment underpins our outlook for additional upside in housing starts and new home sales.

Rising Costs and Prices

  • While there are clear supply challenges in housing inventories, builders are also facing their own supply constraints, creasing challenges for new construction.
  • One of the major constraints is soaring lumber prices. Looking at the first expiring contract for lumber futures, prices soared to a peak of $1,686/1000 board feet in early May before cooling off below $1,400 more recently, which is multiples higher than the $400 pre-pandemic trend.
  • According to the NAHB, “the escalating lumber prices are largely due to insufficient domestic production and extremely large lumber mill curtailments that lasted well into the 2020 building season.”

  • Given the rapid rise in lumber prices, the total cost of lumber and manufactured lumber products for an average single family home has soared 184% from April 2020 to April 2021, rising to $48,316. Put another way, the rise in lumber has added $35,872 more to the price of a new home. This is according to an NAHB analysis using Random Lengths data.
  • The lumber costs for an average multifamily unit have spiked as well to $17,220, reflecting a $12,966 or 190% increase. The NAHB estimates that the rise in multifamily costs equate to a $119 per month increase in rents.
  • The NAHB notes that other costs have contributed to higher home prices including interest, brokers’ fees, and margins required to attract capital and get loans underwritten.

  • The rising cost of construction and therefore new home prices is evident when looking at the distribution of sales by price point. Builders are concentrating construction in the higher priced homes where the high costs can be more easily absorbed.
  • The share of homes sold over $500k rose to 26% in April, which is the highest since the data go back to 2002, from a 2019 average of 18%. In addition, the share of homes sold between $300-500k has risen to 47% from 39% over the same period.
  • Conversely, the share of homes sold below $300k reached a historic low of 27%, dropping from a 2019 average of 44%.

The path to normalize

  • The biggest challenge confronting the housing market is the lack of supply. Months supply of both new 1-family and total existing homes has dropped to historically low levels of 4.4 months and 2.4 months, respectively.
  • Prior to the pandemic, demand in the new home market was more balanced around 5-6 months. That said, this stat doesn’t tell the whole story as builders primarily targeted the upper-end of the price spectrum during the last business cycle. On the aggregate, the last decade was a period of underbuilding.
  • This put pressure on the existing home stock, with months supply generally trending lower and reaching historically tight levels of around 3 months even before COVID-19.

  • The supply/demand imbalance has contributed to a rapid rise in home prices, with home price appreciation (HPA) reaching 13.2% yoy in March according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
  • The current trajectory is likely unsustainable as higher prices weigh on affordability and therefore housing demand. We also expect housing starts to drive up inventory. We look for HPA to end this year at 12% yoy and next year at a still-elevated 6% yoy. Looking ahead, home price appreciation should set back to a lower trend, more consistent with the growth in income.

  • Reflecting the pressure from home price gains, we expect the NAR affordability index to slide this year. The boosts to household income from recent stimulus have provided a positive offset to affordability over the past year as home prices have surged, but will no longer be a factor.
  • Higher rates will be an additional headwind to affordability. As discussed earlier, our rates strategy team expects the 10y Treasury benchmark to reach 2.15% by 1Q 2022, which suggests roughly a 55bp increase.
  • The decline in affordability should lead to a moderation in existing home sales.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/23/2021 - 18:40

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

Published

on

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


Read More

Continue Reading

International

Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

Published

on

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

Published

on

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending