I think that the phrase “out of touch with reality” doesn’t even come close to describing what we are witnessing here. We all knew that the Biden administration was completely out of touch with what is going on in Real America, but it appears that things are even worse than we thought. Right now, inflation is the number one political issue in the entire country, and the persistent shortages that we have been experiencing are right up there as well. But the Biden administration apparently has other priorities.
The Biden administration has just released the “Economic Report Of The President” for 2022, and you can find it on the official White House website right here. But unless you are a glutton for punishment, I would strongly advise against reading the entire thing, because it is dreadfully boring.
Thankfully, there are others that have already gone through the entire document for us, and one eagle-eyed researcher discovered that the word “gender” is used 40 more times than the word “inflation” is used in the report, and the word “inequality” is actually used more than either one of them…
President Joe Biden released his annual Economic Report on Thursday where he mentioned the word “gender” significantly more than “inflation” as the country faces the highest prices in over 40 years.
Biden used the word “gender” 127 in his economic plan, while he mentioned “inflation” just 87 times. Meanwhile, the report mentioned “inequality” 147 times and “emissions” nearly 100 times.
Obviously, Biden administration officials are far more concerned about “social justice issues” than they are about our growing economic problems.
As for Biden himself, he is so incoherent at this point that a guy in a giant bunny suit scares the living daylights out of him.
If you are expecting Biden and his minions to save the day, you are going to be waiting for a really long time.
Meanwhile, prices just continue to rise. On Monday, the price of corn reached the highest level in almost a decade…
The surging price of corn hit another milestone on Monday morning as the cost of global commodities continues to push higher.
The contracts for July corn futures were trading above $8 per bushel on Monday, the highest level since September 2012. The contracts were trading near $6 per bushel at the start of the year.
And the price of natural gas has surged to a level that we haven’t seen since just before the financial crisis of 2008…
U.S. natural gas prices hit the highest level since 2008, with the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub edging close to $8 per million British Thermal Units on Monday afternoon.
The last major Henry Hub price spikes in 2008 and 2006 were partly due to hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, the Epoch Times reports. Prices in 2008 peaked at $13.32 per million on July 3rd.
Even more frightening is the fact that this is just the beginning.
In particular, food prices will eventually go much higher than they are now. I visited a local supermarket earlier today, and I was astounded by all of the price changes. What we are witnessing is already unprecedented, but I believe that there are several factors that will actually accelerate the increase in food prices in the months ahead.
One of those factors is the horrific bird flu pandemic that has erupted inside the United States. According to an expert that was interviewed by the Washington Post, this pandemic is spreading at a much faster pace than the outbreak that caused so much chaos back in 2015…
WaPo spoke to Gro Intelligence (ag data experts) senior research analyst Grady Ferguson who tracked the last outbreak in 2015, saying this one could be more disruptive to the poultry and egg markets.
Ferguson said that 66 days into the outbreak, 1.3% of all US chickens had been affected, and 6% of the US turkey flock. In 2015, he said, only .02% of total chickens were affected at this same time. The number rose to 2.5% of chickens infected at the outbreak’s peak, and more than 50 million were culled.
So what will happen if we get six months down the road and the total death toll for chickens and turkeys reaches 100 million?
What do you think that will mean for our food supply?
As I have been documenting for months, we were already heading for a major global food crisis even without the bird flu and even without the war in Ukraine.
Now both of those factors are making things a whole lot worse.
And instead of trying to find a way to end the war, our leaders continue to talk like they want to escalate matters. In fact, U.S. Senator Chris Coons is openly calling for U.S. troops to be sent into Ukraine…
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) signaled that he wants the US to send troops into Ukraine to fight Russia in an interview on Sunday. When pressed about the issue, Coons said Russian President Vladimir Putin “will only stop when we stop him.”
Coons was asked on CBS News’s Face the Nation about comments he made last week in an address to the University of Michigan. In the speech, Coons said the Biden administration and Congress should “come to a common position about when we are willing to go the next step and to send not just arms but troops to the aid in defense of Ukraine … If the answer is never, then we are inviting another level of escalation in brutality by Putin.”
That is complete and utter insanity.
But Coons and Biden are apparently really good friends, and many other top Democrats are also pushing for Biden to do more to help defend Ukraine.
I still remember the “old days” when many on the left were actually “anti-war”.
I don’t know what happened, but these days the biggest warmongers of all seem to be on the left.
Of course there are many warmongers on the right as well. It is almost as if something is in the water in Washington. I have never seen so many of our leaders act as if they have completely lost their minds.
Needless to say, similar things could be said for society as a whole. I really like how Mike Adams made this point in one of his recent articles…
Humanity is intoxicated to the point of suicidal collapse.
Note the word root “toxic” found in the word “intoxicated.” It doesn’t just refer to consuming alcohol, but to a long list of behaviors, substances and desires that turn off rational thought and thrust people into bad decision making.
If it appears to you that the whole world is going crazy, that is because it really is going crazy.
Global events are starting to spiral out of control, and a whole lot of people out there are having a really hard time coping with it all.
Unfortunately, global events will continue to become more intense in the months ahead, and so will the emotional breakdowns.
* * *
Coronavirus dashboard for October 5: an autumn lull as COVID-19 evolves towards seasonal endemicity
– by New Deal democratBack in August I highlighted some epidemiological work by Trevor Bedford about what endemic COVID is likely to look like, based…
- by New Deal democrat
Back in August I highlighted some epidemiological work by Trevor Bedford about what endemic COVID is likely to look like, based on the rate of mutations and the period of time that previous infection makes a recovered person resistant to re-infection. Here’s his graph:
JOLTs jolted: Did the Fed break the labour market?
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) August release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the number of job openings, a measure…
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) August release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the number of job openings, a measure of demand for labour, fell to 10.1 million. This was short of market estimates of 11 million and lower than last month’s level of 11.2 million.
It also marked the fifth consecutive month of decreases in job openings this year, while the August unemployment rate had ticked higher to 3.7%, near a five-decade low.
In the latest numbers, the total job openings were the lowest reported since June 2021, while incredibly, the decline in vacancies of 1.1 million was the sharpest in two decades save for the extraordinary circumstances in April 2020.
Healthcare services, other services and retail saw the deepest declines in job openings of 236,000, 183,000, and 143,000, respectively.
With total jobs in some of these sectors settling below pre-pandemic levels, the Fed’s push for higher borrowing costs may finally be restricting demand for workers in these areas.
The levels of hires, quits and layoffs (collectively known as separations) were little changed from July.
The quits rate (a percentage of total employment in the month), a proxy for confidence in the market was steady at 2.8%.
From a bird’s eye view, 1.7 openings were available for each unemployed person, cooling from 2.0 in the month prior but still above the historic average.
The market still appears favourable for workers but seems to have begun showing signs of fatigue.
Ian Shepherdson, Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that it was too soon to suggest if a new trend had started to emerge, and said,
…this is the first official indicator to point unambiguously, if not necessarily reliably, to a clear slowing in labour demand.
Nick Bunker, Head of Economic Research at Indeed, also stated,
The heat of the labour market is slowly coming down to a slow boil as demand for hiring new workers fades.
Ironically, equities surged as investors pinned their hopes on weakness in headline jobs numbers being the sign of breakage the Fed needed to pull back on its tightening.
Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth’s head of North American investments added,
(In the past, in) 8 out of the 10 bear markets, we have seen bounces off the lows of 10%…and not just one but several, this is very common in this type of environment.
The worst may be yet to come
As for the health of the economy, after much seesawing in its projections, which swung between 0.3% as recently as September 27 and as high as 2.7% just a couple of weeks earlier, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was finalized at a sharply rebounding 2.3% for Q3, earlier in the week.
Rod Von Lipsey, Managing Director, UBS Private Wealth Management was optimistic and stated,
…looking for a stronger fourth quarter, and traditionally, the fourth quarter is a good part of the year for stocks.
As I reported in a piece last week, a crucial consideration that has been brought up many a time is the unknown around policy lags.
Cathie Wood, Ark Invest CEO and CIO noted that the Fed has increased rates an incredible 13-fold in a span of just a few months, which is in stark contrast to the rate doubling engineered by Governor Volcker over the span of a decade.
Pedro da Costa, a veteran Fed reporter and previously a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, emphasized that once the Fed tightens policy, there is no way to know when this may be fully transmitted to the economy, which could lie anywhere between 6 to 18 months.
The JOLTs report reflects August data while the Fed has continued to tighten. This raises the probability that the Fed may have already done too much, and the environment may be primed to send the jobs market into a tailspin.
Several recent indicators suggest that the labour market is getting ready for a significant deceleration.
For instance, new orders contracted aggressively to 47.1. Although still expansionary, ISM manufacturing data fell sharply to 50.9 global, factory employment plummeted to 48.7, global PMI receded into contractionary territory at 49.8, its lowest level since June 2020 while durable goods declined 0.2%.
Moreover, transpacific shipping rates, a leading indicator absolutely crashed, falling 75% Y-o-Y on weaker demand and overbought inventories.
Steven van Metre, a certified financial planner and frequent collaborator at Eurodollar University, argued,
“…the next thing to go is the job market.“
A recent study by KPMG which collated opinions of over 400 CEOs and business leaders at top US companies, found that a startling 91% of respondents expect a recession within the next 12 months. Only 34% of these think that it would be “mild and short.”
More than half of the CEOs interviewed are looking to slash jobs and cut headcount.
Similarly, a report by Marcum LLP in collaboration with Hofstra University found that 90% of surveyed CEOs were fearful of a recession in the near future.
It also found that over a quarter of company heads had already begun layoffs or planned to do so in the next twelve months.
Simply put, American enterprises are not buying the Fed’s soft-landing plans.
A slew of mass layoffs amid overwhelming inventories and a weak consumer impulse will result in a rapid decline in price pressures, exacerbating the threat of too much tightening.
On Friday, the markets will be focused on the BLS’s non-farm payrolls data. Economists anticipate a comparatively small addition of jobs, likely to be near 250,000, which would mark the smallest monthly increase this year.
In a world where interest rates are still rising, demand is giving way, the prevailing sentiment is weak and companies are burdened by excessive inventories, can job cuts be far behind?
The post JOLTs jolted: Did the Fed break the labour market? appeared first on Invezz.recession unemployment pandemic equities stocks fed governor recession interest rates unemployment
Trade Deficit decreased to $67.4 Billion in August
From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in August, down $3.1 billion from $70.5 billion in July, revised.August exp…
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in August, down $3.1 billion from $70.5 billion in July, revised.Click on graph for larger image.
August exports were $258.9 billion, $0.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $326.3 billion, $3.7 billion less than July imports.
Exports increased and imports decreased in August.
Exports are up 20% year-over-year; imports are up 14% year-over-year.
Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and have now bounced back.
The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.
The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.
The trade deficit with China increased to $37.4 billion in August, from $21.7 billion a year ago.
Trudeau shouldn’t be raising payroll taxes
Buchanan: Is ‘Our Democracy’ Failing Our Country?
How data is crucial to the relaunch of the Cancer Moonshot
Consumer debt index highlights impact of affordability crisis
Pound recovers but remains at low levels – how to assess the long-term value of sterling
Roche hires new diagnostics chief from within, ahead of C-suite shake-up
RON’s competitive advantage in today’s housing market
“Market Instability” Causes BOE To Reverse QT. Is The Fed Next?
Mapping disease risk at human-wildlife ‘hotspots’
What Is the Lipstick Index? Which Stock Market Trends Does It Predict?
Economics13 hours ago
Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck
Economics24 hours ago
US Ports and Terminals Sustain Increased Cybersecurity Attacks
Spread & Containment15 hours ago
What’s next for ancient DNA studies after Nobel Prize honors groundbreaking field of paleogenomics
Economics22 hours ago
Consumer Savings Shrink to 2008 Lows
International19 hours ago
Four States Deploy National Guard To US-Mexico Border
Spread & Containment18 hours ago
A Policy Mistake In The Making
Government6 hours ago
Three Infrastructure Investments to Buy as War and Inflation Rage
Spread & Containment23 hours ago
COVID and the cost of living crisis are set to collide this winter – the fallout will be greatest for the most vulnerable