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In 2023, Bitcoin Will Enter The ‘And Then They Fight You’ Stage

As the macroeconomic debt spiral is set to spin out of control in 2023, Bitcoiners should prepare for the fight to intensify.

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As the macroeconomic debt spiral is set to spin out of control in 2023, Bitcoiners should prepare for the fight to intensify.

This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before transitioning to the Finance Corps.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” 

Attributed to Mahatma Ghandi

At the time of this writing, the U.S. Senate had just introduced the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2022. The bill contains many threatening aspects, such as KYC laws for self-custody wallets and money-transmitter licensing requirements.

This bill also comes on the heels of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent revelation that Bitcoin is on an “artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance.” About a week later, an official from the bank announced it was considering a Bitcoin and crypto ban in order to mitigate environmental damage.

But as the energy crisis in Europe deepens, don’t you think European regulators have bigger fish to fry, like Germany’s rising use of coal power? Or maybe politicians and officials are starting to understand Bitcoin and how it tips the scales of power? On second thought… maybe not.

The below is a thread by Level39 depicting testimony from the recent Senate Banking Committee hearing.

 I think this is just the beginning of the “then they fight you stage” and it will only get worse in 2023. Stay vigilant this year. While a ban and much of the regulations would be comically impossible to actually enforce, they would serve as a significant speed bump to widespread adoption. I would keep an ear to the ground (and probably to Bitcoin Twitter) to stay abreast of situations that could be influenced by a sea of calls to your governmentally-elected representatives, just like what happened with the infrastructure bill in 2021.

The Debt Spiral… Spirals

Luckily, I think more and more people will begin to wake up from the matrix and realize just how bad the situation really is. The fact is, it’s getting pretty hard to obscure at this point.

Top central bank balance sheets

The above chart is essentially my new favorite picture. When people ask me about Bitcoin lately, all I do is show them this graph and they pretty quickly understand the magnitude of money creation during the 2020 COVID-19 era. What they don’t quite understand, just yet, is that it is going to continue, and probably at increasing rates and intervals.


The U.S. federal government is already projected to run a $1 trillion deficit in 2023 (that’s 12 zeroes, folks). Even if the U.S. government shut down the entire military and eliminated the Department of Defense’s projected $800 billion budget, the budget would still be projected to be operating in the red for 2023. The real kicker in this is that the deficit is likely to be much higher, meaning that more debt will have to be issued, and that would be in a period of increasing interest rates due to Federal Reserve tightening.

Source

The Congressional Budget Office is projecting that negative growth in GDP is about as likely as lower-than-expected positive growth. Couple that with an expected increase in unemployment, and you get yourself a fiscal double whammy. First, unemployment and negative GDP growth imply less tax receipts to the federal government, meaning a potentially bigger deficit, i.e., more debt. You add in the fact that the debt is being issued at a significantly higher rate, and you’ve got yourself the ingredients for an accelerating debt spiral.

Even if everything goes completely to plan, a trillion-dollar deficit is certainly nothing to celebrate. I think the numbers speak for themselves. People I work with and am friends with are really starting to notice and get worried; people who have never previously given a lick of interest to economics before.

And when all of the proverbial stuff hits the spinning thing, you can bet that the Fed steps right in with more money printing. Adding a trillion or so dollars to the debt at 5% interest? I don’t think it’s gonna happen. I’m betting interest rates won’t be much higher for much longer. Quantitative easing three is dead. Long live quantitative easing infinity.

Source: TBL Substack

Coincidentally, as I write this article, I received the above article in an email from the Bitcoin Layer. Looks like they agree with me. Rate hikes can’t hike much more than they’ve already hiked. They’re basically off of the trail.

Bitcoin Reignites The Pioneer Spirit

Once upon a time, in a place called America, people used to take responsibility for their actions, traveling off to seek adventure and opportunity in the West. The Oklahoma Sooners’ namesake hails from the Oklahoma Land Rush of 1889, where nearly 50,000 Americans lined up on the edge of the “Unassigned Lands” to race to claim their stakes in the undeveloped wildlands that became Oklahoma.

Much like homesteading in the 19th century, Bitcoin is both a team sport and a race. It’s a race in the sense that if you do not take responsibility to claim your stake in cyberspace before someone else, you may have missed an opportunity of a lifetime. It’s a team sport in the sense that successfully adopting Bitcoin into your life will likely require a degree of help from others.

How many BTC Sessions videos did you watch before setting up your first hardware wallet? How long after that did you actually send any UTXOs to your self-custody address? How long did it take before you even knew what a UTXO is?

Bitcoin is the new frontier, the digitalization of the Unassigned Lands in the old American West. The journey is fraught with dangers and pitfalls, but the payoff is an opportunity that we will likely never see again during our lifetimes. Everyone gets bitcoin at the price that they deserve, yes, but that doesn’t mean you can’t help them accelerate the learning process.

Let’s make 2023 the year we drained the exchanges; auditing them for paper bitcoin through sheer blunt force trauma. I challenge you to try and embody the homesteading pioneer spirit to help make this happen; to help your friends and family understand this phenomenon and opportunity. To help them take self custody and preserve their wealth in a self-sovereign way. Help lead the horse to water, so to speak. You can’t save everybody, but you can at least try to help them see what’s coming, and stake their claim in the new Wild West in cyberspace.

This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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