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“I Feel Young Again” – Jeff Gundlach Annual Just Markets Webcast Live

"I Feel Young Again" – Jeff Gundlach Annual Just Markets Webcast Live

It’s that time of the year when Jeffrey Gundlach, the billionaire money manager and chief investment officer at DoubleLine Capital, gives his outlook for 2021 in his annual

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"I Feel Young Again" - Jeff Gundlach Annual Just Markets Webcast Live

It's that time of the year when Jeffrey Gundlach, the billionaire money manager and chief investment officer at DoubleLine Capital, gives his outlook for 2021 in his annual “Just Markets” webcast today at 4:15 p.m., this time titled "I feel young again. Readers can register for the free webcast which will only discuss markets here (or by clicking on the image below).

As Bloomberg reminds us, we last heard from Gundlach at the start of December when he focused heavily on inflation, saying that it was likely we could see a 7% print for the CPI reading (it will tomorrow). He also told us that he thought markets could be facing rougher, choppier waters after the Federal Reserve signaled that it was willing to quicken its tapering program.

Since then, we’ve learned -- through the release of meeting minutes -- that central bank officials might favor earlier and faster rate hikes as well as a balance-sheet runoff. Indeed, that’s caused a lot of choppiness in the stock market, with richly valued equities taking a big beating so far this year.

Gundlach’s talking points may overlap with the prominent themes we’ve been seeing discussed in 2022 outlooks. Listeners will want to know his take on the Federal Reserve’s path toward tightening and how it’ll play out in markets, as well as his outlook on inflation and what lingering impact the variants of the coronavirus may have.

We will highlight the key presentation notes in this post, which starts off with a bang, and a comparison between Biden and Carter...

... as part of his contrast of today’s negative real rates with the 1970s. Back then interest rates were high, and inflation even higher. Now, rates are low and inflation high. Gundlach says Powell today further acknowledged the inflationary problem. He’s referring to the Fed chairman’s appearance in front of Congress for his re-confirmation hearing.

Gundlach then goes straight to the big guns, showing the surge in the market via the famous JPM chart which goes back to 1996, and where Gundlach says “we had this huge run” that was largely uninterrupted from 1998-2018"....

... comparing it to pre- and post-covid goods spending, saying that we’ve had similar goods spending in the past two years as we did in the previous decade...

... and ultimately the Fed's balance sheet change.

Gundlach says Powell is dusting off the 2018 “playbook” in terms of shrinking the balance sheet, noting that autopilot-QT led to a selloff in the stock market in 2018 which ultimately caused the Fed to pivot. He says that it looks like Powell is talking about repeating the quantitative tightening formula, which of course will lead to the same policy error.

Remarkably, Gundlach says something we have been warning about for the past month, namely that the Fed is hiking into a slowdown, only he goes one step further saying that “I do think recessionary pressure is building.”

The Doubleline strategist then shows various cross-asset returns in 2021, pointing out that bank loans were his top bet from last year’s webcast and that those securities outperformed...

... as well as the return of the S&P vs commodities, with Gundlach suggesting that commodities are set for a massive melt up.

Oil was the big winner last year and oil and commodities have rebounded again. Commodities are coming “roaring back,” he says and indeed, Exxon just had its best day since Feb 2021.

Going back to his recessionary point, Gundlach says consumer sentiment has “given up the ghost,” and looks like a recessionary level when scouring the chart. “This bears watching,” he says, noting to the “freefalling” sentiment which Gundlach says looks “somewhat recessionary”

He attributes this to the collapsing affordability (i.e. surging prices) of autos, which has led to the lowest ever reading in the series whether this is a good time to buy a car (he notes that people can make money by buying cars and turning around and flipping them, which is “interesting” and “unbelievable")...

... or house.

One reason for this: mortgage rates are now well below wage growth rates. Gundlach says there are some signs that “mortgage financing looks pretty cheap” given high inflation and low rates. So far there hasn’t been much of an increase in mortgage rates.

“Home prices are still going up a lot,” Gundlach says, pointing out the obvious.

Gundlach then spends some time discussing soaring inflation, including still clogged-up west coast ports, and focuses on export and import prices. "They’re really high", he says, adding that a lot of people don’t think export prices matter but the things we export, we also consume domestically. He also says that with export prices at all time highs, nearly 20%, all those conspiracy theorists who claim that inflation is artificially suppressed are likely correct.

Gundlach also notes that the ISM manufacturing PMI series shows some positive signs on inflation, noting that prices paid are “rolling over." But not yet, noting that CPI will be around 7% in tomorrow's report.

The DoubleLine founder also looks at surging wage growth, pointing to the record quits rate and the high appetites among Americans to switch jobs before citing JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon who sees the biggest wage inflation in his lifetime. Gundlach predicts that gains in entry-level wages will push up costs.

Gundlach then shows the Citi Inflation Surprise index, noting that every region tracked by Citi has surprised to the upside on inflation. That according to Gundlach, is one of the impetuses for Powell to change his tone from “transitory” to where he is now.

Gundlach shifts topics, and is now discussing the US dollar, where he remains bearish over the long-term and neutral currently. He claims that the dollar is broadly correlated with the “twin deficits” - the current account and federal budget gaps.

He also shows a chart comparing the (inverted) dollar to the yield curve (via the 2s10s), which he says suggests more weakness is coming, and more USD weakness..

... and also shows the historical correlation of the USD vs commodities.

Addressing the yield curve chart, Gundlach says the yield curve is now starting to flash “weaker economy ahead,” adding that when it gets to 50 basis points, that will be a signal to watch. The 2/10s spread is currently 85 basis points, so not too far away from the 50 mark that Gundlach mentions. It’s up from 73 basis points late last month.

Moving away from the yield curve and the dollar, Gundlach says that he is "quite bullish" on gold over the long-term for the same reason he is bearish on the dollar. However, currently he is neutral.

Gundlach next shows a chart of the “shadow” Fed policy rate target which is far lower than it hit back in the Carter era, he says, at -8.7% (thanks to soaring inflation). This takes the near-zero nominal federal funds rate target and adds in an estimate of the impact of quantitative easing. “The most aggressive stimulus in the history of this data series,” he says, while noting this is “academic.”

In an interesting detour, Gundlach notes that the economy has “broken” at a lower and lower level of two-year yields over time, echoing the famous chart from BofA which shows that every tightening cycle ends in a crisis at a lower and lower rate.

Here Gundlach says the Fed will follow the two-year yield until the short end reads the “riot act” to policy makers. Two-year yields tend to lead both tightening and easing moves by the Fed, he says and make the key observation that the Fed may be able to get to 1.5% for the federal funds rate before it needs to stop, about a percent below where it ended its rate hike cycle in 2018.

His conclusion: “We’re going to be more on recession watch than we have been,” which leads straight to our observations that the Fed will never be able to do 4 or even 3 rate hikes this year as the economy will contract long before that.

There is much more in the full DoubleLine presentation below.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/11/2022 - 16:20

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Spread & Containment

Don’t believe the claim that only 17,371 people have died from COVID in England and Wales

A freedom of information request is only useful if you know how to read the data.

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There is no doubt that the pandemic has led to many deaths; however, in the past week, new claims have emerged that the true number of people who have died from COVID in England and Wales is much lower than previously thought. These claims have been widely shared on social media and even amplified by a senior MP. Can it really be true that new data shows that COVID has killed far fewer people than we previously thought?

To arrive at an answer, we first need to delve into the various ways that COVID deaths are counted in England and Wales. There are two main sources of this data: the first, published by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and featured prominently on the government’s coronavirus dashboard, is a simple count of all deaths that occur within 28 days of a positive COVID test.

The second, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is based on death certificates that list COVID as a cause of death. Being based on a medical assessment of the circumstances of each individual death, the ONS figures represent the gold standard.

The UKHSA figures will include some deaths that are clearly unrelated to COVID – for example, somebody who has a mild case of COVID and is involved in a car accident three weeks later – and exclude some COVID deaths where someone is in hospital for more than 28 days. The UKHSA data gives us a picture of what is happening now – albeit an imperfect one – while the ONS data takes several weeks to process.

We also need to understand how death certificates work in England and Wales. When somebody passes away, a medical professional completes a death certificate. This includes a field for the “disease or condition directly leading to death” – often called the “underlying cause”. It also includes the option to list one or two diseases or conditions that were not the underlying cause, but which contributed to the death (“contributory causes”).

The data that the ONS publishes shows that, in 2020 and 2021 combined, 157,889 deaths were registered where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate. Of these, 139,839 listed COVID as the underlying cause. In almost 90% of cases where COVID was a factor in somebody’s death, it was considered by medical professionals to be the primary reason they died. So where does the figure of 17,371 COVID deaths come from?

Freedom of information request

This figure originates from a freedom of information request to the Office for National Statistics that asked for the number of deaths where COVID was the only cause of death recorded. This is complicated by the fact that often COVID itself can cause complications, such as severe respiratory difficulties or organ failure, which will then be listed alongside COVID on the death certificate.

To exclude these deaths, the ONS responded by giving the number of deaths where no “pre-existing conditions” were listed on the death certificate. Which comes to 17,371 for the period up to the end of September 2021. But what is a “pre-existing condition”?

Pre-existing conditions and their International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes

Office for National Statistics

This list is extensive, including high blood pressure, asthma, COPD, diabetes and a wide range of other common conditions. The argument being made by some is that 17,371 is the true number of COVID deaths, because people with these pre-existing conditions, who make up the vast majority of deaths that list COVID on the death certificate, were already sick. But even a cursory glance at the list makes it clear that this will be incorrect for a great many people.

Over a quarter of adults have high blood pressure, 4 million people in England have diabetes and a similar number have asthma. Having one of these conditions is neither a death sentence nor a sign of being in poor health. You almost certainly know several people with one or more of them, or are living with one yourself.

The idea that people with a pre-existing condition are at death’s door is simply untrue. Over half of people aged 50 and over have at least one long-term health condition. But if someone with one of these conditions is unlucky enough to catch COVID and subsequently die, all it takes is for the condition to have some impact for it to end up being listed as a contributory cause on the death certificate.

Let’s take asthma as an example. COVID frequently attacks victims’ lungs, leading them to require ventilation. As a respiratory condition, asthma may well exacerbate these difficulties and will therefore be listed on the death certificate if the person dies. It would be bizarre to claim that the person died of asthma on this basis. Perhaps they would not have died if they didn’t have asthma, but they certainly wouldn’t have died if they hadn’t got COVID.

The vast majority of people who get seriously ill with COVID were living full, independent lives before they were hospitalised. And reasonable estimates suggest that the average number of years of life lost per COVID death is around ten. The idea that people who died from COVID are all extremely ill and would have died soon anyway is not borne out by the facts.

To argue that the deaths from COVID of people with pre-existing conditions don’t count as true COVID deaths is to say that people with pre-existing conditions don’t matter; that their lives are expendable and shouldn’t be considered when assessing the impact of the pandemic. Over 140,000 people with pre-existing conditions have died of COVID in the last two years. We should be mourning this tragic loss of life, not minimising it.

Colin Angus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Spread & Containment

As Omicron-specific boosters are in the news, BioNTech to expand German site workforce by 200 employees

BioNTech has added about 200 jobs to its Marburg, Germany manufacturing site since it took it over from Novartis in 2020. This year, it will add another 250, as demand for Covid-19 boosters has led to calls for an omicron-specific vaccine in adults.
Curre

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BioNTech has added about 200 jobs to its Marburg, Germany manufacturing site since it took it over from Novartis in 2020. This year, it will add another 250, as demand for Covid-19 boosters has led to calls for an omicron-specific vaccine in adults.

Currently, there are around 500 employees at the site, which is north of Frankfurt. The boost is expected to cost around €50 million, or $56.5 million, and will include the addition of office spaces in anticipation of future growth, the company said. The Marburg site has supplied 1.2 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses to the world so far, and a total of 4 billion doses are expected to be doled out by the end of this year.

The news came out of an interview with Bloomberg, a spokesperson for the company confirmed. The $56 million expansion is planned for just the Marburg site alone, the spokesperson confirmed. Before the sale to BioNTech, Novartis invested in the site heavily since 2016, equipping it with capabilities for cell and gene therapy, recombinant proteins, cell culture and viral vector production. In the future, once the need for Covid-19 boosters dies down, BioNTech has said it will other mRNA vaccines, antibody and C&G therapy candidates, as well as its cancer and infectious disease pipeline.

Testing for the vaccine tailored to the pesky variant — which has been deemed more transmissible with less severe symptoms for those that are vaccinated — began this week, BioNTech said along with Pfizer. The trial will test 1,420 healthy adults under the age of 55. Three groups of people, representing different levels of immunity,

In March 2021, Marburg began producing Covid-19 vaccines. It started with the production of mRNA, the active pharmaceutical ingredient for the vaccine. The first batch of doses shipped out in April.

Uğur Şahin

The site has become an example for further growth. BioNTech made waves in the summer of 2021 when it announced plans to collaborate with the African Union to manufacture doses for the continent amid a severe shortage, and in October, the company said that its Rwandan site, which construction is set to begin in the middle of this year, will be modeled after Marburg. Capacity for that one will start at 50 million doses a year, then increase with added manufacturing lines and sites as the project progresses.

CEO Uğur Şahin has already said that the Rwandan site will spin its production into malaria and tuberculosis vaccines once there is a less desperate need for Covid-19 manufacturing.

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Commodities

Metallum Resources to Present at the Sequire Metals & Mining Conference on January 27, 2022

(TheNewswire) January 26, 2022 TheNewswire – Vancouver, British Columbia – Metallum Resources Inc. (TSXV:MZN) ("Metallum" or the Company") is pleased to announce that it will be presenting virtually at the upcoming Sequire Metals & Mining Conference.

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(TheNewswire)



January 26, 2022 TheNewswire - Vancouver, British Columbia - Metallum Resources Inc. (TSXV:MZN) ("Metallum" or the Company") is pleased to announce that it will be presenting virtually at the upcoming Sequire Metals & Mining Conference on Thursday, January 27th, at 10:30 AM EST (Track 4).  Kerem Usenmez, President and CEO of Metallum Resources, will be giving the presentation and taking 1x1 meetings.

" I am excited to present at the Sequire Metals and Mining Conference as our first event of the year!  I look forward to telling our story and updating our plans for 2022 as we move forward toward developing the Superior Lake Project and taking steps to re-open the mine.  Zinc and Copper prices have been going up, and Metallum is very well positioned to fast track towards production to supply high quality Zinc and Copper concentrate," stated Metallum's President and CEO, Kerem Usenmez.

Event: Metallum Resources Presentation at the Sequire Metals & Mining Conference

Date: Thursday, January 27th, 2022

Time: 10:30 AM EST

Register to watch the presentation HERE . Investors can also request 1x1 meetings with Metallum Resources CEO on the event website.

Summary of Sequire Metals & Mining Conference

With a massive uptick in the mining industry and electric vehicles on the rise, Sequire is spending the entire day with public mining companies and industry experts exploring possibilities, opportunities, and the latest news.

Qualified Person

The technical information in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Andrew Tims, P.Geo., Exploration Manager of the Company, and a Qualified Person as defined by NI 43-101.

About Metallum

Metallum Resources (TSXV:MZN) is developing its Superior Lake Zinc and Copper Project located in Ontario, Canada.  Superior Lake Project is one of the highest grade zinc Projects in North America (2.35Mt at 17.9% Zn, 0.9% Cu, 0.4 g/t Au and 34 g/t Ag – Equivalent to 1Moz of 13 g/t Au), with a 9 year mine life and After Tax NVP 8% of $253M and IRR at 35% (Zn at US$1.55, Cu at $3.31) .  Metallum is a member of the Gold Group of companies, led by Simon Ridgway.

For further details about the Company and the Superior Lake Project, please visit the Company's website at metallumzinc.com .

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Kerem Usenmez,

President & Chief Executive Officer

Metallum Resources Inc.

Symbol: TSXV-MZN

For further information, contact:

Kerem Usenmez, President & CEO

Tel: 604-688-5288;  Fax: 604-682-1514

Email: info@metallumzinc.com

Website: metallumzinc.com

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this news release constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation. All statements included herein, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements and include, without limitation, statements about the Company's corporate property exploration and development activities. Often, but not always, these forward looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "estimate", "estimates", "estimated", "potential", "open", "future", "assumed", "projected", "used", "detailed", "has been", "gain", "upgraded", "offset", "limited", "contained", "reflecting", "containing", "remaining", "to be", "periodically", or statements that events, "could" or "should" occur or be achieved and similar expressions, including negative variations.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. Such uncertainties and factors include, among others, whether exploration and development of the Company's properties will proceed as planned; changes in general economic conditions and financial markets; the Company or any joint venture partner not having the financial ability to meet its exploration and development goals; risks associated with the results of exploration and development activities, estimation of mineral resources and the geology, grade and continuity of mineral deposits; unanticipated costs and expenses; risks associated with COVID-19 including adverse impacts on the world economy, exploration efforts and the availability of personnel; and such other risks detailed from time to time in the Company's quarterly and annual filings with securities regulators and available under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended.

Forward-looking statements contained herein are based on the assumptions, beliefs, expectations and opinions of management, including but not limited to: that the Company's stated goals and planned exploration and development activities will be achieved; that there will be no material adverse change affecting the Company or its properties; and such other assumptions as set out herein. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date hereof and the Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by law. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Copyright (c) 2022 TheNewswire - All rights reserved.

News Provided by TheNewsWire via QuoteMedia

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