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How to fix the pensions triple lock but still protect pensioners from high inflation

The reintroduction of the pensions triple lock means the increase in weekly payments could vastly outpace earnings growth

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The triple lock increases some benefits payments by inflation, earnings or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Max_Z / Shutterstock

Plans to increase state pension payments in line with inflation have been reinstated by the UK government and are supported by both of the contenders for the Conservative party leadership. But even if inflation was not always at the 40-year high we are currently seeing, a more sustainable way of calculating pensioners’ state income is needed.

The pensions triple lock was first introduced in the June 2010 budget. It means annual increases in payments are made in line with the highest out of earnings growth (6.2% as of May 2022), price inflation (currently 9.4%) or 2.5%.

The triple lock was suspended for one year in April 2022 as the end of the COVID-19 furlough scheme inflated average earnings growth. The government is now bringing it back in time for the annual update in pension and other state payments, which will come into effect in April 2023. The annual increase will be set by the government in the autumn. With inflation high and rising (the Bank of England expects it to reach 13% by October), it will be the measure used for the increase.

Inflation of more than 10% will see the value of a full basic state pension climb past £155 a week, while that of the new state pension – available to those reaching the state pension age since April 2016 – will increase to more than £200 a week. Since earnings are currently growing less quickly than inflation, a rise in pension income will be greater than any increase in average earnings. In other words, people receiving state pension payments will typically see stronger income growth than those relying on earned income.

As a result, the current period of higher growth in prices than in earnings has brought the triple lock into question. This is because it protects the value of state pensions when earnings growth is weak (as it is now) but will also continue to increase with any subsequent recovery in earnings.

A recent report from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) shows why this approach is unsustainable. While inflation is spiking at the moment, the OBR believes it will average 2% over the long term and that average earnings growth will be around 3.8%. But it also thinks the triple lock will imply an average annual increase of 4.3% for pensions. This is because of volatility in the two sets of figures: while often earnings will grow faster than prices, on occasion that is not the case.

Unexpected expense

As such, maintaining the triple lock would see the value of the basic state pension and new state pension continue to grow faster than average earnings, pushing up government spending on state pensions. Overall, the OBR report projects that state pension spending will increase from 4.8% of national income in 2021–2022 to 8.1% in 50 years time, an increase of 3.2% of national income, which is equivalent to more than £80 billion a year in today’s terms. This is despite further rises in the state pension age. And the use of the triple lock will be a key driver of this increase, not average earnings growth.

When the triple lock was first introduced in the June 2010 Budget it was not expected to be this expensive. If the triple lock had been used over the 19 years prior to its launch, from 1991 to 2009, it would only have been more generous than increases in line with average earnings growth on three occasions. And so, overall, it would have caused state pension increases averaging just 0.1% a year more than if it was calculated using average earnings indexation.

In contrast, over the 12 years from 2010 to 2021, since the policy was first implemented, triple lock indexation would have been more generous than average earnings indexation on eight occasions, according to my calculations based on ONS figures. This would have caused state pension increases averaging 1% a year faster than average earnings indexation.

As such, the triple lock has already been significantly more expensive than expected. It was initially estimated to have cost £450 million in 2014–15, but subsequent OBR analysis suggests that it actually cost six times more – or £2.9 billion. This is clearly not sustainable, particularly amid the current economic downturn.

Older man at laptop with phone
There are more sustainable ways to calculate state pension payments in the current economic environment. astarot / Shutterstock

Finding more sustainable solutions

One solution put forward in the Conservatives’ 2017 general election manifesto was to move to a double lock, where the pension would increase by the greater of growth in prices or earnings. So the 2.5% underpin would no longer exist. In recent years inflation has been greater than earnings or 2.5%, and sometimes both earnings and inflation have been below 2.5%. So the triple lock has been more generous than earnings indexation, and a double lock would also have been more generous than earnings indexation (but not as generous as a triple lock).

But over the period from 2010 to 2021, a double lock still would still have seen the state pension increase by an average of 0.7% a year more than average earnings growth, according to my calculations. So while it would not be as expensive as the triple lock, it’s still not fiscally sustainable over the longer term.

Another option is to move to directly link pensions to average earnings. This was legislated by the Labour government in 2007 following the recommendations of the Pensions Commission. Such a policy could be fiscally sustainable over the long term, if implemented alongside state pension age increases due to rising longevity. But it would mean that in periods where earnings growth was running below inflation (such as now) there would be a real squeeze on pensioners’ incomes.

There is an alternative that would both be as generous as (but not more generous than) earnings indexation over the long term, but that would also preserve the real (inflation-adjusted) value of state pensions in years in which earnings were not keeping pace with prices. Instead of a triple lock, the government could set a target level for the state pension relative to average earnings – let’s say that pensions should be worth 25% of average earnings every year. If this target was 10% more than current pension payments, for example, the government could set a longer-term strategy for meeting that target by increasing payments in smaller annual increments. If prices grow faster than earnings one year, the government could make pension payments price-indexed and then adjust in subsequent years to remain on track for the target, if needed.

This would preserve the real value of state pensions without locking in unsustainable increases at times when earnings are growing faster than prices (as happens under a triple or double lock). It would protect pensioners from inflation while following a target. For whoever ends up being chancellor in the autumn, this could be a way to help improve long-term public finances.

The support of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is gratefully acknowledged (grant reference ES/W001594/1), as co-funding from the Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (ES/T014334/1) at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Over the last three years, I have also received research grants from the following parties, who may be interested in the topic and findings but who have had no material interest in this work nor any engagement with it: • Centre for Ageing Better • Department for Work and Pensions • Social Security Administration • Nuffield Foundation • As part of a consortium of funders of research into retirement and savings: Age UK, Aviva UK, Association of British Insurers, Association of Consulting Actuaries, Canada Life, Chartered Insurance Institute, Department for Work and Pensions, Interactive Investor, Investment Association, Legal and General Investment Management, Money and Pensions Service, and Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association. I am Deputy Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. In addition I am a member of the Social Security Advisory Committee and of the advisory panel of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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