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How LOs get into a real estate agent’s circle

“That partnership is everything,” Amy Breach, a Seattle-based Keller Williams agent, said. “The lender and LO can make or break the transaction….

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To get into an agent’s circle, an LO has to see problems before they manifest they need to communicate whether the news is good, bad or ugly, agents said.

Becca Summers does not typically include Wells Fargo on the lender recommendation list she gives to clients. However, when mortgage rates started rising in the spring, Summers encouraged her clients to take advantage of the bank’s mortgage rate lock product.

“Wells Fargo was doing a program where they would lock the rate indefinitely, so I had three of my clients transition from the builder’s lender to Wells Fargo because they were able to lock in back in March when the rates were still in the 4.0% range, versus closing on their mortgage now when their homes are finally finished being built and rates are around 7.0%,” said Summers, a Keller Williams agent in Provo, Utah.

Any time my buyers are the ones bringing a lender to the table who I am not familiar with, I am going to have some questions for that lender.

Amy Breach, Real Estate broker on the Hill Team in Seattle for Keller Williams

Looking back, Summers is glad she encouraged her buyers to swap lenders. It saved her clients a good chunk of change, but it also paid off in another, unexpected way.

“The builder’s real estate agent swapped in the middle of the transaction, so things got a bit mixed up and no one updated the clients’ files to reflect the change in lender,” Summers explained. “So, about two weeks before the closing was scheduled to take place, the builder reaches out to me and was like, ‘The loan officer on your client’s file got laid off and we are assigning a new one to it.’ At that point my client’s had been locked in their rate for months, but if we hadn’t swapped lenders their monthly mortgage payment would have skyrocketed and who knows what would have happened to the transaction.”

Successful transactions are becoming harder to come by due to lower homebuyer demand caused by rising mortgage rates, inflation and a high level of volatility in the stock market. In turn, real estate agents are doing everything they can to ensure they get their clients into their home of choice. A lot of this depends on the homebuyer’s lender.

“That partnership is everything,” Amy Breach, a Seattle-based Keller Williams agent, said. “The lender and LO can make or break the transaction.”

But some of those partnerships are getting turned on their head as the mortgage industry reckons with the housing market slowdown. In 2019, prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were 263,494 LOs, according to mortgage data technology company InGenius. Due to the historic refinance boom and massive uptick in homebuyer demand, the number of LOs nationwide ballooned to 353,119 in 2021, but by July 15 of this year, that number had dropped back down to 276,837.

Garth Graham, senior partner and manager of merger and acquisition activities for the Stratmor Group, projects that LO headcount should decline back to 2019 totals.

“Some 80% of the volume in our industry is done by about 40% of the LOs,” Graham told HousingWire in November. “And so, the bottom 20% of volume [handled by 60% of LOs] this is the part that has not yet shown up in [the layoff] data yet.”

Trouble in partnership paradise 

Operations staff, like processors and underwriters, are completely dependent on the sales people to generate their work, so if transactions aren’t coming through it isn’t good for anyone.

Fahad Janvekar, a loan officer at Fairway Independent Mortgage

“It’s tough right now to see so many people in our industry lose their jobs,” Fahad Janvekar, an LO at Fairway Independent Mortgage, said.

Although Janvekar feels insulated from the chaos due to a 100% commission based compensation structure, he still has his concerns.

“Operations staff, like processors and underwriters, are completely dependent on the sales people to generate their work, so if transactions aren’t coming through it isn’t good for anyone,” he said. “But my outlook isn’t that I am not worried about my role right now. If my numbers drop as the market slows further or are consistently super low then I should really start to worry.”

In 2022 alone, nearly every major mortgage lender shed a significant portion of their staff. Mortgage processors, underwriters, and other support staff were generally among the first to be cut. Tens of thousands have been laid off in 2022, and with production nowhere near the heights seen in 2020 and 2021, another 150,000 industry jobs could be shed in the next year. 

For agents, who often work just as hard to cultivate a strong rapport with reliable lenders and LOs as they do with the clients in their CRM, the upheaval in the lending space can be incredibly frustrating — and it makes them wary of working with unknown LOs, lenders or startups.

“Any time my buyers are the ones bringing a lender to the table who I am not familiar with, I am going to have some questions for that lender,” Breach said. “At the end of the day, I am there to be a guide and an advocate for my buyer, so I am going to make sure that I step out and talk with those lenders in kind of an interview process and then I am going to provide that feedback to my client and let them make the decision.”

While Summers said she is always open to working with a lender the buyer brings to the transaction, she feels things always run smoother and more seamlessly when she gets to work with her preferred LO and lender.

“Last month I closed a transaction with a first time buyer, and afterward I asked him what he thought about the process. He said it was way easier than he expected and the title officer said, ‘Well you had the ‘Dream Team’ working for you,’” Summers said. “When we work together the process for my clients is beautiful, it’s smooth and easy, but that is because the lender and I work really well together and solved problems that arose before my client even knew there was a problem.”

Number one is communication for sure. Whether it is good, bad or ugly, keeping me informed is essential.

Marcia Ricchio, a re/max agent in Racine, Wisconsin

Although Summers has her personal preferred LO, she tries to make recommendations based on who’s best suited for the client.

“I have one LO who does portfolio loans that only his company does and it is a great first-time homebuyer, no money down loan,” Summers said. “And then for my buyers who maybe have credit issues, I have another lender that I work with because he is really good at walking the buyer through more difficult situations to get them to their ultimate goal of buying a house, and then I have another LO who is great with really technical transactions and makes sure every little detail is in line.”

Andrew Wilson, a Raleigh-based eXp Realty agent who just started practicing real estate two months ago, was fortunate enough to have access to a list of pre-vetted preferred lenders from his team leader, but after hitting it off with an LO not on the list, he took a chance and recommended her to some of his clients. For Wilson, the LO felt like a good fit for the clients, not because of the type of loan she specializes in, but due to her personality.

“I was working with a personal friend who was a first-time home buyer,” Wilson explained. “I had really enjoyed talking with the LO on the phone, and I just thought she and my clients would click and I was right.”

Standing out from the crowd

But what makes an LO or a lender stand out to an agent — and what motivates them to add them to their list of recommendations?

“Number one is communication for sure,” Marcia Ricchio, a Racine, Wisconsin-based RE/MAX agent, said. “Whether it is good, bad or ugly, keeping me informed is essential.”

For Anne-Marie Wurzel, a Mainframe Real Estate agent based in Orlando, Florida, the ideal standard of communication with her lender is weekly check-in calls to discuss all the transactions they have in progress.

“I should never have to wonder what is going on with my transactions, and with my preferred lenders, I never have to because we communicate about them all at least once a week,” Wurzel said.

If you see big rate differences between lenders, sometimes that is a lender trying to buy business because they are bleeding money and struggling to stay afloat, so that is another big red flag for me.

Anne-Marie Wurzel, an agent with mainframe real estate in orlando, florida

“Some of these lenders only work Monday through Friday 8 to 5 and then they are done,” Mandy Nichols, a DFW-based BrixStone Real Estate agent, said. “If you are working with one of those lenders and you need someone at night or over the weekend, you might as well kiss a lot of deals goodbye, especially earlier this year when the market was crazy.”

Nichols said one of her favorite LOs to work with has even taken calls from her while on vacation in Cancun. 

“Even if it is 9 at night, he’ll find a way to get me a pre-approval letter,” she said.

In addition to lack of communication, agents said to be wary of lenders who are offering much lower rates than the competition, as some lenders struggle to generate business thanks to lower purchase origination volume and essentially non-existent refinance volume. Agents said that these lenders may be attempting to buy business in order to keep their operation up and running. 

“If you see big rate differences between lenders, sometimes that is a lender trying to buy business because they are bleeding money and struggling to stay afloat, so that is another big red flag for me,” Wurzel said. “If the rate seems too good to be true it probably is. I mean you might close, or the lender might go bankrupt before your client reaches the closing table and that just isn’t worth the risk to me.”  

As an agent with only two years in the real estate industry, Jenny Vergos, who is based in Memphis at Marx-Bensdorf, said there was some trial and error involved in finding LOs she felt confident recommending to clients.

“Most of the buyers coming to me asking for a lender recommendation are first time homebuyers,” she said. “I had an LO who had done a good job for some personal transactions a few years ago, and I recommended her to my niece, who was a first-time buyer. My niece is very detail oriented and wanted to know everything that was going on with the transaction and I think the lender assumed my niece knew more than she did, so toward the end of the process my niece wasn’t very satisfied and was frustrated with how things had gone. So that was a bit of a learning curve for me and now I have an LO who runs educational seminars for our local Realtor organization, who I met through another client who I was helping purchase their sixth property. That LO walks clients through every step, so I typically recommend her to my first-time buyers.”

As the housing market slows, Vergos says she is glad to have found experienced and stable LOs and lenders to work with, but is wary of how the changing market conditions could impact the lenders and LOs working on her transactions.

“I definitely have been a bit worried,” Vergos said. “I have noticed much more increased activity in lenders reaching out and seeing if I had any transactions, they could help me with. It is mostly lenders I don’t know, and they seem to be really trying to drum up business. So, while none of my transactions have been impacted by layoffs or lender shutdowns, all of this made me think that things must be really bad on that side of the business.”

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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