Housing Crash Imminent: As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses
Housing Crash Imminent: As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses
A little over a month ago, when mortgage rates…

A little over a month ago, when mortgage rates were still "only" 5% we shared several devastating anecdotes from real estate agents and industry execs who validated our worst fears: US housing was imploding... fast, with subsequent observations only confirming this dire conclusion about the state of the most popular asset class among the US middle class.
Fast forward to this week when things have gone from worse to catastrophic, because with 30Y mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to above 6%, or levels last seen just before the housing bubble burst...
.... sending the average mortgage payment on a median mortgage up by almost $800 in just the past 6 months...
making housing the most unaffordable in history...
... sending new home sales plunging at the fastest pace since the peak of the covid crisis after the longest negative streak since 2010...
... and homebuyer sentiment imploding to the lowest level in generations...
Which brings us to the latest housing market summaries from real-estate brokerage RedFin, which are not pretty.
The first shows that after the period of unprecedented gains for home prices and a uniformlly sellers market, has flipped, and according to Redfin, the highest share of sellers on record dropped their list price during the four weeks ending June 12 as mortgage rates shot up to levels not seen since 2008, collapsing the pool of potential home shoppers.
In the Austin, Texas, and Nashville, Tennessee, metro areas, the share of new-construction offerings with price cuts has quadrupled from a year earlier, according to Redfin. They tripled in Phoenix and doubled in the Tampa, Florida, region.
“We are in a different place — the builder can no longer name a price and say, ‘pay it or move along,” said Nicole Freer, a Houston agent who has slashed prices by $2,000 to $20,000 on homes she lists for builders. “They’re telling us: ‘Our managers have allowed us to negotiate again.’”
Still, despite the clear cracks in housing, homebuying has never been more expensive. Due to delays in pricing, the typical buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is looking at a monthly payment of $2,514, up from $1,692 a year ago!
But those who remain in the market may notice they face less competition from other buyers.
Homes are more likely to sit on the market for a few weeks, compared to last year when they would go under contract within a week...
... and home prices are being bid up less often than they were earlier in the spring.
“The housing market isn’t crashing, but it is experiencing a hangover as it comes down from an unsustainable high,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. “Housing demand has already cooled significantly to the point that the industry has begun facing layoffs. This week’s rate hikes will further stretch homebuyers’ budgets to the point that many more may be priced out. While a lot of home sellers are already dropping their prices, more homeowners will likely decide to stay put now that the mortgage rate on a new home is significantly higher than their current one.“
“If it weren’t for the surge in mortgage rates, the housing market would still be in a boom right now,” said Redfin Bay Area real estate agent James Cappello. “Demand from homebuyers was still extremely high as recently as February, but rates are making it really tough. Going from 3% to nearly 6% almost instantly has scared a lot of people out of the market.”
There's more. In a subsequent report, Redfin reports that competition for existing inventory is collapsing with 57.8% of home offers written by Redfin agents facing competition on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, the lowest level since February 2021. That’s down sharply from a revised rate of 60.9% one month earlier and a pandemic peak of 68.8% one year earlier, and marks the fourth-consecutive monthly decline. On an unadjusted basis, May’s bidding-war rate was 60.8%, down from 67.8% in April and 71.8% in May 2021.
As a result of declining competition, the typical home in a bidding-war received 5.3 offers in May, down from 6.8 in April and 7.4 in May 2021.
“Homes are now getting one to three offers, compared with five to 10 two months ago and as many as 25 to 30 six months ago,” said Jennifer Bowers, a Redfin real estate agent in Nashville.
“Offers also aren’t coming in as high above the list price as before. I recently listed a three-bedroom, three-bathroom home in a super cute neighborhood for $399,900. It ended up going under contract for $12,000 above the list price with an inspection, whereas three months ago, the buyer probably would have paid $60,000 over asking and waived the inspection.”
In light of the above, it's not surprising that today Bloomberg reports that "the fastest-rising mortgage rates in decades have cooled demand so abruptly in many hotspots that it took the industry by surprise. Builders that were artificially limiting sales and auctioning houses to the highest bidder now have inventory to move."
It’s part of a rapid shift in the US housing market as the Federal Reserve sharply raises interest rates to tame inflation, sending home-loan costs to the highest level since 2008 and straining buyers whose affordability limits were already being tested. Just this week, brokerages Compass and Redfin said they would slash jobs, as economic data showed housing starts dropped to the lowest level in more than a year and homebuilder sentiment is at a two-year low while homebuyer sentiment is the lowest on record.
The market has certainly noticed the collapse in housing, and share prices for builders have collapse, with the Supercomposite Homebuilding Index tumbling 42% this year through yesterday, almost double the 23% drop in the S&P 500.
Builders, who last year had so much power that people would wait in line overnight for homes they would meter out, are now contending with both falling demand and high material and labor costs. And with the Fed signaling more big rate hikes in coming months, they’re eager to get contracts signed before house hunters pull back even more.
In Sarasota, Florida, would-be buyers are hesitating because homes are taking so long to build, and it’s impossible to know where borrowing costs will land by the time they’re completed, said Donnette Herring, a Realtor with Keller Williams.
“Inflation makes them nervous,” Herring said.
The signs of a shift are still early. Conditions vary from region to region and even between subdivisions, including many where demand still far outpaces supply. And rather than cutting prices, many builders are offering incentives such as free upgrades, money toward closing costs and subsidized mortgage rates. But the market is changing fast, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda. Her company, which tracks new construction, began hearing of price cuts toward the end of May and into June.
“The builders that are cutting prices are also those that raised prices the most over the past six to 12 months,” she said.
Many of those are in areas that were favored destinations for pandemic migrants who have been moving from pricey regions in search of cheaper homes and more space. In the Phoenix metropolitan area, 22% of new-home listings had price cuts from May 9 through June 5, up from 7% a year earlier, according to data from Redfin. In Tampa, the share jumped to 21% from 9% a year earlier, and in Austin, it climbed to 13% from just 3%.
The cuts have come from both small private builders and big public ones, including D.R. Horton, Meritage Homes and Lennar according to listings in Florida, Texas and Arizona publicly available on sites such as Redfin and Realtor.com. A PulteGroup website shows 146 finished homes in Arizona, mostly with price reductions. Jim Zeumer, vice president of investor relations, said those appeared to be typical incentives used to sell spec houses - those built without a buyer in place - that are complete or will be finished soon.
“We will typically have one or two finished specs in a community but use incentives to manage inventory levels over the life of a community,” Zeumer said.
During the recent boom, many builders were waiting until homes were nearing completion before allowing buyers to purchase them because of uncertainty around materials and labor costs. As a result, they have a flood of new homes that need to be matched up with buyers.
In the Houston region, it’s the fast-growing areas further from the city, such as Conroe to the north and Alvin to the south, that are cooling the most, said Freer, the local agent. Builders who were only selling homes that were almost done now are telling her that they’ll take orders for “dirt.”
Of her roughly 120 listings for builders, about 70% now have cuts, she said. Soon it will be 100%.
A key metric to watch is the contract cancellation rate, said Rick Palacios, research director at John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California. It topped 9% nationally in May, according to his company’s survey of builders, up from 6.6% in April. That’s still short of the 16% pace after the pandemic lockdowns first took hold two years ago.
“The writing is on the wall that more supply is coming, no matter how you slice and dice the data,” Palacios said. “Builders are trying to get in front of that wave. We could have the double-whammy of the economy cooling and a lot of supply coming on. That’s not the best recipe to sell homes.”
Uncategorized
This Hack Makes Flying Spirit Better Than JetBlue Or Southwest
It’s possible to make the no-frills, low-cost carrier as nice as flying much more expensive airlines (for less money).

It may seem impossible that the low-cost, no-frills air carrier could be an improvement over Southwest Airlines or its would-be merger partner JetBlue, but it’s possible.
Before the covid pandemic, I flew Southwest Airlines fairly religiously in order to maintain my A-List status. You need 25 one-way flights each year (or 35,000 miles) to keep that status and I flew just enough to keep eking out my renewal each year.
A-List has some meaningful perks for Southwest Airlines (LUV) - Get Free Report passengers. You get same-day standby for free, which was very convenient when I was flying for work and a meeting got canceled allowing me to leave earlier. In addition, A-List members can change their flights with no fees or penalties, and most importantly, they get priority boarding status.
Southwest boards based on its A, B, and C boarding groups with 60 slots in each group. A-List members got checked in early and were guaranteed that if they don’t get an “A” spot, they could check in between the A and B groups. They can also do that if they fly standby and missed the check-in window altogether.
Every year, I tried really hard to keep those perks, but in 2022, it simply was not possible. I didn’t travel anywhere close to the amount I did before covid and had to let my A-List status expire as the year ended.
I was not super happy about it, but as my travel ramped up, I was being forced to fly like a regular person with no status. That changed, however, when Spirit Airlines ran a quick promotion where people with top-tier status at a number of major airlines and hotels could buy Spirit’s top-tier Gold loyalty status for $100.
It’s the best $100 I have ever spent because it elevates the experience on the no-frills airline.
Image source: Shutterstock
Why Spirit Airlines Gold Status Is So Valuable
A low-cost carrier, Spirit charges for everything. Your basic fare gives you the right to get on the plane with a personal item (think a purse or a small backpack). Fares are very low because you pay for everything from checked bags to a full-size carry-on to getting an actual seat assignment. Spirit passengers even pay for water and soda, and they can opt to pay for snacks and perks like being able to get through airport security faster.
As a Gold member, I pay the basic fare price and then get bags and a premium seat assignment for free. On the three Spirit flights I have booked, I was able to get an exit row seat, with much more legroom for no extra charge. I also got access to a priority security line at the airport and got to board in the first group.
In addition, I also got one flight change (for each leg of my trip) free (which I did not need to use on this trip).
What It’s Like Flying As a Spirit Gold Member
Spirit tends to fly out of the least convenient terminal at every airport (at least that has been my experience). That was true of my Fort Lauderdale flight where the airline flies from Terminal 4, which has a small parking lot that never seems to have any spaces. That forces you to park in a garage that’s farther away, but it’s well marked and walkable or there’s a tram if you are willing to wait.
My flight was a 9:30 p.m. non-stop to Las Vegas on a Saturday night. There were very few people in the security line and while I had access to a priority Spirit line, I’m also a Clear member and opted to go with that experience instead.
Once I cleared security, I made my way to my gate passing a few shops and some restaurants. I stopped to buy some snacks, as my first boss drilled the idea of never getting onto a plane without an emergency snack into my head before my first business trip 30 years ago (I was 19).
The gate had plenty of seats and we were scheduled to board at 8:45. When boarding was called, at roughly 8:47, the woman at the desk called for people needing extra assistance, families flying with kids under two, and active military members. There were none of those, so she then called for Group 1 and since I was standing near the gate, I was literally the first person on the plane.
In my multiple years of being Southwest A-List, I had never had fewer than 20 people board before me. I found my seat and while the actual seat was hard and not all that comfortable (Spirit skimps on the padding to save on fuel) the exit row legroom was impressive. In fact, the distance between my seat and the seat in front of me was so great that I actually had to lean forward to type on my laptop given the very narrow fold-down tray.
My flight was not without problems. It did not have WiFi, which the airline did not announce until we were in the air (so I could not text my wife to let her know I would be out of touch for five hours). Aside from that, however, my Gold status also got me a free soda, water, coffee, or juice, as well as a choice of snacks.
So, for my very lucky $100 purchase of Gold status, I had a roomier seat than I have ever had on Southwest. I was also paying a price that was less than half what I would have paid on Southwest or JetBlue, neither of which offered a comparable direct flight.
Spirit may be no-frills for infrequent flyers, but for its elite passengers, the airline offers value and meaningful perks. It also offers 10X points for Gold members, so even with the cheap fares I’m paying, the first two Spirit flights I have booked will earn enough points to allow me to keep my status for another year.
gold pandemicInternational
Who Can You Trust?
Who Can You Trust?
Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
“I’m sick and tired of hearing Democrats whining about Joe Biden’s…

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
“I’m sick and tired of hearing Democrats whining about Joe Biden’s age. The man knows how to govern. Just shut up and vote to save Democracy.”
- Rob Reiner, Hollywood savant
Perhaps you’re aware that the World Health Organization (WHO) is cooking up a plan to impose its will over all the sovereign nations on this planet in the event of future pandemics.
That means, for instance, that the WHO would issue orders to the USA about lockdowns, vaccines, and vaccine passports and we US citizens supposedly would be compelled to follow them.
Why the “Joe Biden” regime would go along with this globalist fuckery is one of the abiding mysteries of our time - except that they go along with everything else that the cabal of Geneva cooks up, such as attacks on farmers, and on oil production, and on relations between men and women, and on personal privacy, and on economic liberty throughout Western Civ, as if they’re working overtime to kill it off. And all of us with it.
I think they are working overtime at that because the sore-beset citizens of Western Civ are onto their game, and getting restless about it. So, the Geneva cabal is in a race against time before the center pole of their circus tent collapses and the nations of the world are compelled to follow the zeitgeist in the direction of de-centralizing, foiling all their grand plans.
The “Joe Biden” regime is pretending to ignore the reality that this WHO deal is actually a treaty that would require ratification by a two-thirds vote in the senate, an unlikely outcome. In any case, handing over authority to the WHO — in effect, to its chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus — to push around American citizens like a giant herd of cattle would be patently unlawful.
That center pole of the circus tent is the wobbling global economy. It’s barely holding up the canvas over the three rings of the circus. In the center ring, the death-defying spectacle of the Biden Family crime case is playing out before a huge audience (us). This week, a gun went off at the FBI and smoke is curling out of the barrel. FBI Director Christopher Wray was forced to verify that he’s been sitting on an incriminating document for three years from a “trusted” confidential human source, i.e., an informant, stating that the Biden Family received a $5-million bribe from a foreign entity when “JB” was vice-president.
That’s only one bribe of many others, of course, as documented in the Hunter Biden laptop, and it must be obvious it represents treasonous behavior that will demand resignation or impeachment. As this spools out in the weeks and months ahead, do you think Americans will be in the mood to accept further insults such as “Joe Biden” surrendering our national sovereignty to the WHO?
Anyway, you must ask yourself: why on earth should I trust the WHO about anything? Did they not participate in laying a trip on the world with Covid-19? How did those lockdowns work out? Do you think they destroyed enough businesses and ruined enough households? How’s the vaccination program doing? Effective? Safe? Yeah, maybe not so much. Maybe killing a lot of people, wrecking immune systems, sterilizing reproductive organs, causing gross disabilities, shattering lives.
Of course, in over three years neither the WHO nor the US medical authorities showed the slightest interest in helping to figure out how the Covid-19 virus was made in a lab, and exactly how it got loose in the world. Lately, Dr. Ghebreyesus has warned the world about much worse future pandemics supposedly coming down at us. Oh? Really? What does he know that we don’t? That possibly new efforts to concoct chimeric diseases are ongoing in labs around the world? (You know that dozens of such labs were discovered in Ukraine as the war got underway there in 2022.) What’s Dr. Ghebreyesus doing to stop that?
If US orgs and citizens are involved in this “research,” why doesn’t the WHO alert our government leaders so they can stop it? (Would they? I’m not so sure.) And, who is behind it this time? The Eco-Health Alliance again, like with Covid-19? By the way, that outfit got another whopping grant last fall from the NIH to “study” bat viruses — right after the NIH terminated a previous grant on account of The Eco-Health Alliance failing to turn over notebooks and other records.
No, you cannot trust the WHO about anything. The “trust horizon” (a concept introduced by the great Nicole Foss, late of The Automatic Earth dot com) is shrinking. You can no longer trust any distant authorities. You also cannot trust the US federal government (especially the executive branch behind “Joe Biden”). And notice: the trust horizon is shrinking just as the world is de-centralizing. This, you see, is the main contradiction behind all the Globalists’ twisted ambitions to control everything, including you. They are working against the current tide of human history which is pushing everything toward down-scaling, re-localization, and re-assertion of the sovereign individual person.
That trend will become increasingly evident as things organized at the giant scale start to implode — giant retail chains, medical behemoths, hedge funds, big banks, you name it. The world no longer has the mojo for globalism. There’s reason to wonder these days whether the USA has the mojo to remain a unified national polity of states. Our federal government is not only financially bankrupt beyond any coherent reckoning, it is also morally bankrupt, and it has decided to make war against its own people. None of this is satisfactory and none of this is working. It’s time to figure out who and what you can trust and act accordingly.
Spread & Containment
Removing antimicrobial resistance from the WHO’s ‘pandemic treaty’ will leave humanity extremely vulnerable to future pandemics
Drug-resistant microbes are a serious threat for future pandemics, but the new draft of the WHO’s international pandemic agreement may not include provisions…

In late May, the latest version of the draft Pandemic Instrument, also referred to as the “pandemic treaty,” was shared with Member States at the World Health Assembly. The text was made available online via Health Policy Watch and it quickly became apparent that all mentions of addressing antimicrobial resistance in the Pandemic Instrument were at risk of removal.
Work on the Pandemic Instrument began in December 2021 after the World Health Assembly agreed to a global process to draft and negotiate an international instrument — under the Constitution of the World Health Organization (WHO) — to protect nations and communities from future pandemic emergencies.
Read more: Drug-resistant superbugs: A global threat intensified by the fight against coronavirus
Since the beginning of negotiations on the Pandemic Instrument, there have been calls from civil society and leading experts, including the Global Leaders Group on Antimicrobial Resistance, to include the so-called “silent” pandemic of antimicrobial resistance in the instrument.
Just three years after the onset of a global pandemic, it is understandable why Member States negotiating the Pandemic Instrument have focused on preventing pandemics that resemble COVID-19. But not all pandemics in the past have been caused by viruses and not all pandemics in the future will be caused by viruses. Devastating past pandemics of bacterial diseases have included plague and cholera. The next pandemic could be caused by bacteria or other microbes.
Antimicrobial resistance

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is the process by which infections caused by microbes become resistant to the medicines developed to treat them. Microbes include bacteria, fungi, viruses and parasites. Bacterial infections alone cause one in eight deaths globally.
AMR is fueling the rise of drug-resistant infections, including drug-resistant tuberculosis, drug-resistant pneumonia and drug-resistant Staph infections such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). These infections are killing and debilitating millions of people annually, and AMR is now a leading cause of death worldwide.
Without knowing what the next pandemic will be, the “pandemic treaty” must plan, prepare and develop effective tools to respond to a wider range of pandemic threats, not solely viruses.
Even if the world faces another viral pandemic, secondary bacterial infections will be a serious issue. During the COVID-19 pandemic for instance, large percentages of those hospitalized with COVID-19 required treatment for secondary bacterial infections.
New research from Northwestern University suggests that many of the deaths among hospitalized COVID-19 patients were associated with pneumonia — a secondary bacterial infection that must be treated with antibiotics.

Treating these bacterial infections requires effective antibiotics, and with AMR increasing, effective antibiotics are becoming a scarce resource. Essentially, safeguarding the remaining effective antibiotics we have is critical to responding to any pandemic.
That’s why the potential removal of measures that would help mitigate AMR and better safeguard antimicrobial effectiveness is so concerning. Sections of the text which may be removed include measures to prevent infections (caused by bacteria, viruses and other microbes), such as:
- better access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene;
- higher standards of infection prevention and control;
- integrated surveillance of infectious disease threats from human, animals and the environment; and
- strengthening antimicrobial stewardship efforts to optimize how antimicrobial drugs are used and prevent the development of AMR.
The exclusion of these measures would hinder efforts to protect people from future pandemics, and appears to be part of a broader shift to water-down the language in the Pandemic Instrument, making it easier for countries to opt-out of taking recommended actions to prevent future pandemics.
Making the ‘pandemic treaty’ more robust
Measures to address AMR could be easily included and addressed in the “pandemic treaty.”
In September 2022, I was part of a group of civil society and research organizations that specialize in mitigating AMR who were invited the WHO’s Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) to provide an analysis on how AMR should be addressed, within the then-draft text.
They outlined that including bacterial pathogens in the definition of “pandemics” was critical. They also identified specific provisions that should be tweaked to track and address both viral and bacterial threats. These included AMR and recommended harmonizing national AMR stewardship rules.
In March 2023, I joined other leading academic researchers and experts from various fields in publishing a special edition of the Journal of Medicine, Law and Ethics, outlining why the Pandemic Instrument must address AMR.
The researchers of this special issue argued that the Pandemic Instrument was overly focused on viral threats and ignored AMR and bacterial threats, including the need to manage antibiotics as a common-pool resource and revitalize research and development of novel antimicrobial drugs.
Next steps
While earlier drafts of the Pandemic Instrument drew on guidance from AMR policy researchers and civil society organizations, after the first round of closed-door negotiations by Member States, all of these insertions, are now at risk for removal.
The Pandemic Instrument is the best option to mitigate AMR and safeguard lifesaving antimicrobials to treat secondary infections in pandemics. AMR exceeds the capacity of any single country or sector to solve. Global political action is needed to ensure the international community works together to collectively mitigate AMR and support the conservation, development and equitable distribution of safe and effective antimicrobials.
By missing this opportunity to address AMR and safeguard antimicrobials in the Pandemic Instrument, we severely undermine the broader goals of the instrument: to protect nations and communities from future pandemic emergencies.
It is important going forward that Member States recognize the core infrastructural role that antimicrobials play in pandemic response and strengthen, rather than weaken, measures meant to safeguard antimicrobials.
Antimicrobials are an essential resource for responding to pandemic emergencies that must be protected. If governments are serious about pandemic preparedness, they must support bold measures to conserve the effectiveness of antimicrobials within the Pandemic Instrument.
Susan Rogers Van Katwyk is a member of the WHO Collaborating Centre on Global Governance of Antimicrobial Resistance at York University. She receives funding from the Wellcome Trust and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
treatment pandemic coronavirus covid-19 deaths canada world health organization-
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Who Can You Trust?