During Powell confirmation hearing today, the Fed chair said something notable which explains the Fed's aggressive tightening posture: "the economy no longer needs highly accommodative policies" adding that "it is really time for us to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level."
To be sure, this observation may actually be correct, and indeed in his latest presentation Citi's Matt King agreed, noting that "for the economy alone neutral rates may well be much higher now."
However, while the economy - with its rip-roaring inflation and ultra-tight labor market may indeed be able to absorb several rate hikes and even a material trim in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, the same can not be said about the market. Here we once again go to the latest Matt King slideshow, in which he warned that "neutral rates for markets likely well below neutral for the economy"...
... as "markets are much closer to late-cycle than the economy".
In other words, the Fed's tightening - whether in the form of rate hikes or balance sheet runoffs - while long overdue for the broader economy, will have dire effects on a market which is now used to the Fed's billions in monthly monetary injections; anything less, and certainly a drain of liquidity, and markets will unleash a major tantrum.
But while stocks may have no choice but to find what the strike price on the Fed's put is, which as Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson recently said is about 20% below all time highs, some market elements are already signaling that not even the economy will be able to sustain just a handful of rate hikes.
Take the dollar: as we noted earlier, a new conundrum has emerged in recent months, with the dollar now sliding despite "good" economic news such as rising real yields and falling equities.
And while we analyzed a recent note from Standard Chartered FX strategist Steven Englander looking at what may be causing this paradoxical USD response to an increasingly more hawkish Fed, the answer may be far simpler: FX traders are now pricing in the coming economic slowdown that will take place in the coming quarters as the Fed tightening further slows the stagflating economy, which if not contained in time, would lead to recession.
Or, even simpler, look at the December NFIB Small Business Optimism report which printed this morning, and which found that the share of small business expecting the economy to improve in the near future remains stuck at all time lows!
And when it comes to future of the economy, we will take the assessment of small businesses - those who actually transact every single day inside the US economy - over that of the Fed, which is a bunch of ideologically-driven economists who never exist their Marriner Eccles ivory tower, every day.
Which brings us to the gist of this article: what are the two things that will determine not only the end of the current market correction, but when the Fed will capitulate on its aggressive hawkish rhetoric, as it is forced to realize the US economy is slowing at an ever faster rate.In short, what are the two key things to watch to determine if economic growth is once again slowing.
For the answer we go to the latest Weekly Warm Up note from Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, whose persistent bearish bias appears to finally have been validated in recent days, and who writes that "with rates having adjusted, our focus now turns to growth".
As Wilson explains, "the Fire part of our narrative is in full gear with both nominal and real rates moving sharply higher so far this year. This is having a disproportionate impact on expensive growth stocks, as it should," but as the Morgan Stanley bear correctly stipulates, the real determinant of how long and deep this correction lasts will be growth.
And to assess where the US economy is in the all important business cycle, the Morgan Stanley chief strategist is laser focused on just two things: i) PMIs and ii) earnings revisions, both of which are heading lower in Wilson's view (who sees software as s a good case study and possible leading indicator in this regard for the broader market).
But let's step back for a second before we get to the meat of the argument, and instead let's take a look at some of the recent market context where, as noted above, just the threats of the Fed's liftoff and/or runoff have already wreaked havoc.
Summarizing the recent market situation, Wilson writes that 2022 is "off to a blazing start" with some of the biggest rotations ever witnessed at the beginning of the year, although in reality "much of this rotation in the equity markets began back in November with the Fed's more aggressive pivot on tapering and rate hikes. More specifically, and as shown below, the most expensive stocks were down almost 30 percent in the last 2 months of 2021. Year to date, this cohort is down another 10%, prompting the number one question Morgan Stanley's clients ask "is it over yet?"
In response to this question, the equity strategist writes that what's changed since the turning of the calendar year "is the move in back end rates— both nominal and real. In fact, the move in 10-year real rates is one of the sharpest on record and harkens back to the original taper tantrum in 2013." Indeed, even Goldman over the weekend pointed out that while the absolute move in yields is hardly jarring, the speed with which yields have spiked is the kind of two-sigma event that sends stock lower in the ensuing weeks.
Wilson then notes that there is little doubt that such a move is garnering the attention of investors even though it's something equity markets have been thinking about for months. Indeed, if one looks again at the de-rating chart above, it's easy to see that the equity market has been discounting this inevitable rise in real rates for months. This fits Wilson's infamous "Fire" narrative, as well as his view that "the equity market is smart enough to know that the rates market has been influenced by QE, and therefore using the stated rate structure for one's discount rate would be a mistake for any longer term valuation assessment."
The obvious question to ask then is why is the rates market suddenly waking up to the reality of inflation and the Fed's response to it. After all, this has been telegraphed for months. Morgan Stanley thinks this has to do with several technical support mechanisms that are now being lifted:
- First, the Fed itself likely increased its liquidity provisions at year end to deal with the typical constraints in the banking system at this time of the year.
- Second, many macro speculators and trading desks likely shut down their books in December despite most views that long duration rates should be higher.
This combination has now reversed and ignited what seems like an inevitable move that many risky assets have been discounting ahead of time. So based on the move in 2013, Wilson predicts that "real rates still have further to run, potentially much further". Referencing Morgan Stanley's rates strategists, he believes that real rates are headed back toward 50bps which is another 25bps higher (Goldman's own forecast is for -0.70% real yields so a bit lower). Wilson notes that "real rates are unreasonably negative given very strong real GDP growth. Therefore, the Fed is absolutely correct to be trying to get them higher. It's also why tapering may not be tightening for the economy even though it is the epitome of tightening financial conditions for markets. Of course, the speed of this move is likely as important as the magnitude."
But while the market "Fire" is already raging, the good news (for the bulls) is that "winter is coming", or in other words the economic slowdown that inevitably accompanies all rate hikes by the Fed and which allows the Fed to resume its generous liquidity which in turn sends all risk assets soaring again.
This is the part which you should focus on even if you skip everything else in this post.
As Wilson explains, with the first part of his Fire and Ice narrative in full gear, it is time to turn our attention to the Ice. As already noted, growth is slowing and while most appreciate this dynamic, there is a lot of debate as to how much it will slow and whether it will matter for stocks. To be sure, growth is likely to remain positive (absent major shocks) but for some companies that remains to be seen given how difficult the comparisons are vs. last year especially in 1H 2022.
Here, as the title suggests, Morgan Stanley is focused on two metrics in particular as key drivers of stocks—PMIs and earnings revisions.
First on PMIs, both the manufacturing and services headline indices reached cycle highs and topped in 2021. Manufacturing PMIs peaked in the spring, while Services has more recently from an all time record high of 70. Given this survey is an oscillating/diffusion index, it typically returns toward 50 after the initial surge following a recession. This time will be no different, and it looks like we are headed there now. Wilson's guess is that by the spring of this year, we will see a Mfg PMI in the low 50s, if not slightly worse given how high it got this time—every action entails a comparable reaction.
In addition to the normal mean reversion we typically get in PMIs at this stage of the recovery, Wilson is also looking at other indicators that suggest "this reversion is imminent and could be sharper than normal."
- First, limited supply has been one of the major constraints to growth for the past 6 months. Some of this is due to real supply chain issues and shortages but most of it is due to the excessive level of demand that was created by the extraordinary fiscal stimulus. As noted over the past few months, there have been more anecdotes about improving supply (although little actual results as even Powell noted during his testimony today). While this will help companies meet some of the extraordinary demand they haven't been able to fulfill, it may also lead to less tightness and therefore worse pricing and even cancellation of some of the double orders that make up a good part of the demand companies are seeing. On this score, the inventory and orders sub components suggest this is exactly the risk for the headline index. As inventories catch up to orders, the overall strength of the orders will likely fade.
- Second, the internal weakness in the market has been extraordinary. From weak breadth to extreme leadership in quality stocks, a deteriorating economic and earnings situation that is likely worse than most investors expect is being depicted within market internals—i.e., PMIs, economic and earnings growth will decelerate further than investors expect during the first half of 2022...the Ice part of Wilson's narrative. In fact, according to the MS strategist, some of the extraordinary price damage we are seeing beneath the surface of the index is foreshadowing this likely disappointment
Another subcomponent of the PMI surveys that has significant signaling power is prices paid which tends to lead the headline index by approximately 12 months. It also fits Morgan Stanley's mid-cycle transition narrative nicely but has yet to fully play out. Similar to the charts above, the record increase in prices paid suggests the reversion to the mean for the headline PMI index should be imminent and sharper than normal.
From a market standpoint, this is important because as Wilson notes, manufacturing PMIs tend to predict equity risk premiums (higher PMIs = lower ERPs), and is one of the reasons why the y/y change in PMIs lines up so well with the y/y change in the S&P 500
However - for now - the S&P 500 is still diverging from the deceleration we have already seen in the Mfg PMI to date. So if Wilson is right about PMIs falling further over the next few months, stocks still have material downside before this correction is over. This is very much in line with his outlook that tightening financial conditions with decelerating growth leads to falling valuations, particularly when the starting point is so high. Of course, it also leads to Fed panic and an even more aggressive stimulus down the line.
The good news, according to Michael Wilson, is that a good chunk of the de-rating has already happened at the individual stock level, even if the de-rating hasn't yet begun for the broader index. And while the equity strategist admits that he has been wrong (for now) at how well the index has held up in the face of so much damage to other asset prices and other mounting evidence (largely the results of an extremely narrow market leadership group in the face of the FAAMGs), this relationship with the PMI appears to be a smoking gun if it starts to fall more meaningfully.
2. Earnings Revisions Breadth.
In addition to PMIs, the 2nd key signal Wilson also tracks is earnings revision breadth closely as a gauge of growth acceleration/ deceleration. It also has a high positive correlation vs. stock prices. In this case, the S&P 500 is trading in line with the current earnings revision breadth. While Morgan Stanley's work suggests the risk is to the downside for earnings revision breadth, it bears close watching as a possible offset to falling PMIs. In this regard, earnings revisions and PMIs will be more important than the direction of interest rates from here.
As an aside, Wilson brings readers' attention to what's been going on with Software and Services earnings revisions recently. Relative earnings revisions for the sector peaked in late October and have fallen decisively ever since. This coincided with the relative underperformance of the sector and may explain its underperformance even more so than the recent rise in rates. In other words, "Software stocks are simply reacting to what are deteriorating earnings revisions, at least relative to the S&P 500" and until this reverses, software as an overall cohort should continue to underperform, particularly if rates are still headed higher. Conversely, it does look like relative revisions are trying to bottom so if this can fully reverse during 4Q earnings season, so should the stocks, at least on a relative basis assuming rates stabilize, too. At this stage, Wilson says he would not recommend investors try to be too early here given how extreme valuations and positioning remain for the sector.
One final, and ominous, observation from Wilson which suggests the S&P 500 may finally be ready to catch up to the weak breadth under the surface is the recent divergence with IG credit spreads. For most of 2020-21, credit led the rally in stocks, as it typically does coming out of a recession. However, as shown below, "on the last two highs made by the S&P 500 in November and then December, IG credit spreads did not confirm them with new tights." Given the importance of credit spreads to equity valuations via the risk premium channel, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist would simply chalk this up as yet another thing to watch for the all clear sign that this correction is over, or that it is about to get much worse... and culminate with another Fed panic.
Top Trending Stocks to Buy Today
A few companies have started the season off strong. Let’s examine the top trending stocks investors are excited about.
The post Top Trending Stocks to Buy Today appeared first on Investment U.
There is a ton of uncertainty in the investing world right now. First, new COVID-19 strains have turned into an ever-present threat to the entire economy. Second, many companies are still struggling with supply chain issues. Finally, analysts expect interest rates to rise at any minute. However, despite all of this turmoil, a few companies have started the season off strong. This is much-needed good news for investors. Let’s examine a few of these top trending stocks and see why investors are excited about them.
NOTE: I’m not a financial advisor and am just offering my own research and commentary. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
What Creates Top Trending Stocks?
When you hear the word “trending”, most people think of a viral social media post. These are posts that everyone is talking about and sharing with each other. Honestly, trending stocks are not that different.
There are tons of factors that could lead to a stock starting to trend. Stocks can also trend for both good and bad reasons. For example, a stock might start trending in a good way because it announced a brand new service (Walt Disney Company and Disney Plus). A stock could also start trending in a bad way because of a CEO scandal (Activision and Bobby Kotick). A stock could even start trending for reasons that have nothing to do with the company (i.e. The GameStop Short Squeeze).
The most important thing is to figure out why a stock is trending, whether the news is good or bad, and how to react to it.
For this article, I’ve focused on stocks that recently crushed their Q4 2021 earnings reports. These stocks are all trending because they are performing better than investors expected them to. Let’s take a look.
No. 4 Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE: LEVI)
Levi’s was founded in 1853. When things are looking bleak, it’s a good idea to invest in companies that have been around since 1853. They have a very proven ability to overcome tough times.
Apparently, even after 169 years, Levi’s are still in. In Q4 2021, Levi’s posted multi-decade records for revenue and profitability. Chip Bergh, President & CEO, attributed this success to a few factors. First, he praised Levi’s strong brand equity. This allows it to maintain pricing control and refrain from discounting too heavily. He also mentioned that Levi’s is expanding its direct-to-consumer business. This DTC division has much higher margins than Levi’s traditional business. It has helped to increase Levi’s profitability.
For Q4 2021, Levi’s reported revenue of $1.7 billion. This was up 22% from 2020 and 7% from 2019. Levi’s also beat both its earnings per share (EPS) expectations (2.43%) and revenue expectations (0.32%).
In more good news, Levi’s set super high growth expectations for 2022. It forecasted growth of 11-13% for next year. Chip even went so far as to say, “As good as this past year has been, I’m confident the future will be even better.”
In even more good news, Levi’s increased its dividend. This is usually the ultimate sign of security for investors. It shows that the business has so much money that it can afford to pay some back to investors. In total, Levi’s paid out $104.4 million in dividends during 2021.
No. 3 Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)
Tesla is rarely not one of the top trending stocks. Usually, Tesla only trends because of Elon Musk and his antics. This time around, however, Tesla is trending because of very substantial news. Namely, it crushed its earnings report.
Of all industries, electric vehicles were one of the hardest hit by supply chain issues. There are so many pieces (literally) that go into building a car. These pieces are sourced from all over the globe. This leads to a massive supply chain. Additionally, the average EV uses 2,000 processing chips. This means that the EV industry also had to battle the ongoing global chip shortage. A little surprisingly, Tesla was able to navigate these issues with no problem.
In Q4 2021, Tesla produced 305,000 vehicles. It also delivered 308,000 vehicles in Q4 and 936,000 for the year. This resulted in $17.72 billion in Q4 revenue. This was enough to beat both its revenue expectations (6.49%) and EPS expectations (6.88%). In total, Tesla reported a yearly gross profit of $4.8 billion. This was a 135% year-over-year (YOY) increase.
Interestingly, Elon Musk spent a good portion of the earnings call not discussing electric cars. Instead, his focus on was a new humanoid robot called Tesla Bot. Musk described Tesla Bot as, “the most important product that Tesla is developing this year.” He sees it as a potential answer to the current labor shortage.
No. 2 ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW)
ServiceNow is a cloud computing company. It focuses on managing workflows for IT, employees, creators, and customers. Essentially, ServiceNow creates digital experiences to make life easier for your company. Out of all of the top trending stocks, ServiceNow is the most relieving. Let me explain…
In recent months, the technology sector has been beaten down. Badly. It’s been the toughest stretch for tech stocks since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Many once-popular names like Peloton, Roku, and Fiverr are down 70% or more from their all-time high. This is the case for most Nasdaq. This is why ServiceNow’s earnings report was so critical. ServiceNow sells critical software for businesses. It also works with 80% of the companies in the Fortune 500. If ServiceNow’s business was slowing down, it could be a very bad sign for the economy overall. Luckily, that wasn’t the case.
In Q4 2021, ServiceNow reported revenue of $1.5 billion. This was a 29% increase from 2020. It was also enough to beat both its revenue expectations (2.1%) and EPS expectations (0.59%). The management team at ServiceNow also expects this growth to continue into 2022. They’ve forecasted revenue growth of 26% for 2022.
This earnings beat came at the perfect time. ServiceNow is one of just a few tech stocks that has notched any green days at all lately.
Top Trending Stocks No. 1 Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
Intel falls into a very similar category as ServiceNow. It is one of the world’s largest companies and sells a wide variety of different business solutions. Due to this, a slowdown in Intel’s business can be viewed as a bad sign for the overall economy. Luckily, Intel also just recently beat earnings. It also helps us round out this list of top trending stocks.
Intel reported Q4 revenue of $19.45 billion. This was enough to beat both revenue expectations (6.4%) and EPS expectations (19.75%). Notably, Intel trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of under 10 right now. This means that it is valued incredibly cheaply for the amount of money it makes. Most companies of Intel’s size trade at P/E ratios of closer to 20 or 30.
One reason why Intel is trading so cheaply might be due to investor uncertainty. Intel recently got a new CEO (Pat Gelsinger) in February 2021. He is currently investing heavily to help Intel increase its production capacity. The company plans to present more detailed plans on February 17, 2022. To read more on Intel, check out my Intel stock forecast.
I hope that you’ve found this article valuable in learning a few of the top trending stocks to buy. Please base all investment decisions on your own due diligence.nasdaq stocks covid-19 interest rates
Best Penny Stocks to Buy Next Month? Check These 3 Out
Can these penny stocks push up next month?
The post Best Penny Stocks to Buy Next Month? Check These 3 Out appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | PennyStocks.com.
3 Penny Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist in February 2022
With February only a few days away, trading penny stocks remains extremely popular. Now, to make money with penny stocks in 2022, investors need to have a thorough understanding of what is going on in the stock market. Right now, the most pressing factors include Covid, inflation, the Fed monetary policy, and certain geopolitical tensions. And because penny stocks are so speculative, these factors all have a major and material effect on how they trade.
[Read More] Why These 3 Penny Stocks Are Exploding Today
So, when you’re making a penny stocks trading strategy, having all of these in mind will help immensely. And, your strategy should also be able to adapt to the ever changing conditions of the stock market. As we all know, trading penny stocks in 2022 is not easy. And in the past week or so, the market has been in a major downtrend. But, with a lot to look forward to regarding the future, investors are excited about the next few months. With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at three penny stocks to add to your watchlist in February 2022.
3 Penny Stocks to Watch in February 2022
- Gingko Bioworks Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DNA)
- Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP)
- Root Inc. (NASDAQ: ROOT)
Gingko Bioworks Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DNA)
Today, shares of DNA stock managed to climb by almost 7% at midday. While many large gains like this occur without news, there are a few reasons why DNA stock is climbing right now. Today, Bank of America Securities announced coverage of Gingko Bioworks, initiating a Buy rating and an $8 price target.
While price targets are simply that, they are still crucial for investors to consider. This seems to be the main reason that DNA stock is climbing right now. However, the company did make an exciting announcement a week or so ago. On January 19th, Gingko announced the acquisition of Project Beacon Covid-19 LLC. This is a Boston-based social organization that is working on increasing the availability of Covid testing in Massachusetts.
“As we embark on a new wave of the pandemic and grapple with the spread of the Omicron variant, large-scale testing will be critical to help keep kids in schools and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. ntegrating Project Beacon’s capabilities with our Concentric by Ginkgo offering will enable us to further empower communities in Massachusetts and beyond with the tools they need to make important public health decisions.”The Chief Commercial Officer of Gingko, Matt McKnight,
This is very exciting news, and any company involved in treating, diagnosing, or curing Covid-19, has come into the public eye in the past few months. So, with that in mind, will DNA stock make your list of penny stocks to watch?
Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP)
Today, shares of SHIP stock managed to climb by almost 12% at midday. It’s tough to say why SHIP stock is moving so heavily right now, but, it did make an exciting announcement on January 24th. On Monday, the company stated that it expects its Q4 TCE (time charter equivalent) to exceed $36,000 per ship per day. This is above the previous guidance of $35,200 per ship per day.
“As a result of our pro-active hedging strategy in 2H21, we estimate that we will overperform the current spot market rate by approximately 50% in the first quarter. Moreover, our robust EBITDA generating capacity in multiple freight environments attests to our firm belief that our shares are currently significantly undervalued.”The CEO and Chairman of Seanergy, Stamatis Tsantanis
This is great news and could be the reason that SHIP stock is moving right now. In the past five days, shares have climbed by around 16%, which is no small feat. Considering all of this, will SHIP stock be on your penny stocks watchlist next month?
Root Inc. (NASDAQ: ROOT)
Another sizable gainer of the day is ROOT stock, which shot up by over 15%. Before we get into why, it’s important to understand what Root Inc. does. The company is a provider of insurance, revolutionizing the industry through data science and technology.
[Read More] 5 Top Penny Stocks To Buy Under $5 Right Now
It works to provide customers with a personalized and fair experience in modern insurance. The big news for the company came today when it announced a new term loan facility with BlackRock Financial Management Inc. The deal, with $300 million, will provide the company with ample credit to move forward with certain operations.
“We are pleased with the successful execution of this new term facility. It accomplished several important objectives including extending our debt maturity and further enhancing our liquidity position with a partner focused on the long-term success of Root.
We are executing on a disciplined strategy to create enduring value through strong underwriting results, the development of our embedded product, and prudent capital management.”The CEO and Co-Founder of Root, Alex Timm
Specifically, this deal with carry an interest rate of around 9% and includes an issuance of warrants from Root to Blackrock equal to 2% of issued and outstanding shares. This includes an exercise price of $9 per share. This is exciting news for the company and should help to stimulate growth for it in the short and long term. Considering that, will ROOT be on your buy list in February or not?
Which Penny Stocks Are You Watching Right Now?
If you’re looking for the best penny stocks to buy, there are hundreds to choose from. While it can be complicated given the sheer number of penny stocks out there, with research on hand, it is much easier than previously imagined.
Now, to find the best penny stocks to buy, investors need to know exactly what is going on in the stock market and how to take advantage. This involves looking at the news, understanding how it may affect different industries and considering the future. With all of that in mind, which penny stocks are you watching right now?
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Is it too late to buy Visa after shares jumped 9.0% on record revenue?
Wedgewood Partners’ CIO says Visa Inc (NYSE: V) is a promising reopening stock a day after the financial services company reported record revenue for its fiscal first quarter. Rolfe’s bull case for Visa Inc Visa reported a 40% YoY increase in its…
Rolfe’s bull case for Visa Inc
Visa reported a 40% YoY increase in its quarterly cross-border volume last night that David Rolfe sees as a positive catalyst for the stock. This afternoon on CNBC’s “TechCheck”, he said:
Now that the world is opening up post-COVID-19 pandemic, the all-important cross-border revenues are coming back. On top of it, it’s a stock that’s trading at 28 times this year’s earnings and about 24 times 2023. Probably one of the most dominant business models in the world.
His outlook is similar to Gradient Investments’ Jeremy Bryan, who also expects 2022 to be a great year for Visa. The stock jumped nearly 10% this morning and wiped its entire year-to-date loss. A double-digit single-day gain is fairly unusual for Visa; seen last in April 2020.
Fintech startups are not a threat for Visa
The chief investment officer does not see the rise of fintech solutions as a threat for Visa, which is now a sizable position for his investment management company. He added:
The narrative that Visa is going to lose market share versus some of these startup fintech companies just isn’t the case. These companies are partners; they ride on Visa’s rails. Square, PayPal, Coinbase, Strip; they are all partners.
Rolfe agreed the stock was a bit on the pricier side last year, but said it’s not anymore. “V” traded at a high of about $250 in July 2021 versus $222 at present. According to Rolfe, Wedgewood Partners has been loading up on “V” in recent weeks.
La notizia Is it too late to buy Visa after shares jumped 9.0% on record revenue? era stato segnalata su Invezz.reopening pandemic covid-19
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