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Here are 7 trends to watch in the 2022 appraisal market

The tides of the mortgage industry are changing as we head into 2022, and just like the sand under the waves, we can expect the appraisal landscape to shift along with it.
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The tides of the mortgage industry are changing as we head into 2022, and just like the sand under the waves, we can expect the appraisal landscape to shift along with it. Appraisers, like many other service providers, must adapt to market changes to accommodate their clients’ needs. Whether it is providing appraisal services, underwriting services or title services, a mortgage application cannot proceed without their input. 

We have reviewed and analyzed recent stakeholder and government data, and we are pleased to deliver the following analysis and predictions for 2022.

Current volume and trends

It is fairly well-known that the appraisal industry has a supply and demand issue. Freddie Mac recently released trend analysis of appraisal activity for appraisals submitted to the Uniform Collateral Data Portal. This data clearly illustrates the issue: 

  • Appraisal volume exceeded the high-water mark of 700,000 monthly submissions to the appraisal data warehouse on multiple occasions in 2021. Prior to 2020 it was a rare occurrence for volume to exceed 600,000 per month. 
  • The number of appraisers completing appraisals for transactions eligible for sale to the GSEs has remained relatively flat.  

In addition to the supply and demand issue in 2021, we also saw continued challenges around appraiser throughput, appraisal turn times and appraisal fees. 2021 also introduced change at the policy level, as appraisal waivers began to slow down and the FHFA’s announcement to allow desktop appraisals. 

We’ll dig deeper into each of those topics below, but first we’ll explore one of the biggest driving forces on appraisal: market volume.   

2022 Outlook for volume

Mortgage rate predictions for 2022 by industry stakeholders show rates for 30-year fixed mortgages to range from 3% to 4%. As of this writing, in 2021, 31 of 45 weeks had mortgage rates below 3%. The last time the 30-year mortgage rate was at or above 3.5% was in March of 2020. Prior to that, we have to go back to October 2016 to see rates at 3.5% or below.  

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting purchase mortgage originations to increase 9% in 2022 and refinance originations to decrease by 62%. Appraisal demand from generators (i.e., HELOC and private clients) is expected to remain stable to slightly declining. 

How does this impact appraisal volume? Mathematically, the MBA predictions result in a loss in demand between 30% to 35% for appraisals associated with mortgage originations. As application volume is anticipated to shift from predominantly refinance activity to purchase activity, we anticipate the demand for appraisals in the mortgage sector to decline 15% to 20% with other demand generators pointing toward stability or slightly declining.

In a recent Fitch Ratings analysis on nonbank mortgage origination outlook, analysts stated that “rising rates fueled by the tapering of Fed asset purchases and home price appreciation from the growing disparity between housing supply and burgeoning demand are also expected to contribute to lower volumes and margins into 2022.”

Appraiser supply

It is worth addressing the overall appraiser supply here as well. Analysis of appraiser credentials in the U.S. shows continued decline. According to 2021 data from the Appraisal Institute, the current number of state-issued appraiser credentials is 93,309, which is more than 3,000 fewer credentials cited in a 2019 Appraisal Institute study, which put the number of credentials at 96,856 in 2016. Attrition and supply continue to be a market concern. 

Efforts to date to bolster the ranks of credentialed appraisers has resulted in reducing the rate of decline, but decline continues nonetheless. Perhaps diversity, equity and inclusion efforts by industry stakeholders and the Appraisal Foundation’s PAREA efforts may bear fruit in the future; however, significant impacts to increase the ranks of qualified appraisers are not anticipated in 2022.  

Appraiser productivity

According to our analysis of data released by both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the count of active appraisers based on mortgage activity has been mostly flat since 2018, with minor fluctuations. The rise in sales and refinancing activity in 2021 resulted in increased appraiser productivity, ranging between 50% to 100% per appraiser. 

How does this convert on a per appraiser basis? With 40,000 appraisers having their appraisal work submitted to the GSE appraisal portal, the median throughput level pre-2020 was approximately 10 appraisals per month, or 2.5 per week. From 2020 through 2021, that throughput level increased to 15 to 20 appraisals per month, or 3.75 to 5 appraisals per week.   

And while appraisers have shown they have adjusted processes to produce at a higher level of output on a weekly basis, no significant process changes are anticipated to contribute to be a drag on productivity.   

Turn times

Unfortunately, a centralized source measuring market-level appraisal turn times does not exist. Data is often limited to anecdotal experience by individual lenders, users of appraisal services and reporting by a handful of appraisal management companies. In general terms, prior to 2021, it was common for appraisals to have an average turn time between 9 and 12 days. Based on analysis of three national AMC quoted turn times on their websites, in 2021, the turn time range expanded to 8 to 21 days. Those states having the fewest number of appraisers often show the longest cycles. These numbers are in line with what we see lenders experiencing using the Reggora platform. 

While pipeline volume plays a large part in the equation, the geography and the supply of appraisers in particular markets are contributing factors and the range of turn times can vary significantly across localities within the marketplace. 

The National Association of Realtors projects 2022 home sales activity to be slightly lower than 2021. As a result, we should expect to see overall appraisal turn times improve. To keep this in perspective, a 20% decline in demand when production is 3.75 appraisals per week results in a decline of one appraisal per week per appraiser. For locations where the supply of appraisers is abundant and the appraisal process itself can be completed in a standardized amount of time, we anticipate a return to pre-2021 levels with turn times of 8 to 10 days.

In locations where there are limitations on the supply of appraisers, or the amount of time it takes to complete an appraisal is extended due to lengthy drive times and data-challenged locations, only modest gains are anticipated and extended turn times will continue to be the norm.

Of course, fluctuations will occur due to seasonality, as the appraiser supply is anticipated to remain fixed and demand is variable. If there is heightened risk of either supply side or demand side variations, then the above predictions would need to be revised. 

Appraisal fees

Due to the supply and demand crunch, appraisal fee escalations and upward pressure on fees has received much attention in 2021. As we expect market volume to drop by at least 20% to 30% moving into 2022, it is anticipated that some relief of fee pressure will occur; however, complex submarkets, complex properties and appraisals in locations deemed difficult, where the appraiser is required to expend more time on an assignment, will continue to see fee pressure. The introduction of desktop and potentially of alternative products, should also assist in helping fees to come down from their 2021 levels, but they will most likely stay elevated compared to historic norms.

GSE Appraisal Policy

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have underwriting programs that allow lenders to waive the requirements for an appraisal in certain circumstances. No or low cash-out refinance applications receive the largest share of waivers. From June 2020 through May 2021 the percentage of appraisal waivers increased, and activity averaged approximately 385,000 per month. However, when looking at waiver activity measured from January 2021 through June 2021, the data show a decline of approximately 11.5%. We expect that number to continue to decline as refinance activity slows down. 

In addition to appraisal waivers, desktop appraisals have also been a topic of conversation among the GSEs. In October, the FHFA announced that desktop appraisals, similar to what was allowable during the COVID-19 appraisal flexibilities, will be allowed as we move into 2022. We also expect desktop appraisals to replace some of the loans that were previously qualifying for appraisal waivers. Finally, we also see a possibility for the introduction of an even broader set of alternative appraisal products that incorporate new technology and processes to further address issues with turn times, racial bias and supply constraints.

Racial bias

The topic of racial bias in real estate, and in appraisal, has been a hot one. 2021 brought forward the Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) Interagency Task Force to address inequity in home appraisals. PAVE is required to bring forward a final action report in 2022. And while it is unknown what the final recommendations will be, PAVE’s focus is multi-pronged, and recommendations are anticipated revolving around government oversight, industry practice, consumer and practitioner education and making available high-quality data to combat racial inequality. 

Conclusion

There’s a lot of change happening across the industry, and the foundation for appraisal is more like sand than stone. As we head into 2022, we can expect some balancing and displacement to occur. While demand for appraisal services is anticipated to drop due to less refinance activity, we will also see increased demand stemming from fewer appraisal waivers and more desktop appraisal products. And while turn times and fee pressures are anticipated to retreat back to pre-2020 levels, there remain supply pressures, particularly in geographically challenged markets. There will also be a focus on responding to the anticipated PAVE task force recommendations, whether they be on a regulatory front or through establishing new industry practice. 

One thing is for certain: As change happens in 2022, appraisers will need to rely on their skillset to measure, analyze and navigate that change. 

The post Here are 7 trends to watch in the 2022 appraisal market appeared first on HousingWire.

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About 35% of People Who Received Placebo in Vaccine Trials Report Side Effects and More COVID-19 News

According to a recent study conducted by researchers at Harvard Medical School and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 76 percent of the adverse side effects (such as fatigue or headache) that people experienced after receiving their first COVID-19…

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About 35% of People Who Received Placebo in Vaccine Trials Report Side Effects and More COVID-19 News

The placebo effect is where a person who received a placebo instead of a drug or vaccine shows clinical signs, positive or negative, associated with the actual treatment. Much has been made about the side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines, but a new study found a startlingly high number of adverse events associated with people who received placebos in clinical trials. For that and more COVID-19 news, continue reading.

COVID-19 Vaccine Side Effects: Real or Placebo Effect?

A recent study out of Harvard Medical School and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center evaluated 12 COVID-19 vaccine trials with a total of 45,380 participants. The study found that 76% of the adverse side effects reported, such as fatigue or headache, after the first shot were also reported by participants who received a placebo. Mild side effects were more common in people receiving the vaccine, but a third of those given the placebo reported at least one adverse side effect. The statistics from the study showing that 35% of placebo recipients reported adverse side effects is considered unusually high. Several experts suspect that there’s such a high report of adverse events because of the amount of misinformation found on social media about the dangers of the vaccines and the amount of media coverage.

This is not to say that the adverse side effects felt by people who received the vaccines are all in their heads. People do have side effects to vaccines, but this study reports on an unusually high level of the placebo effect. Nocebo is used to describe a negative outcome associated with the placebo.

Source: BioSpace

“Negative information in the media may increase negative expectations towards the vaccines and may therefore enhance nocebo effects,” said Dr. Julia W. Haas, an investigator in the Program in Placebo Studies at Beth Israel Deaconess and the study’s lead author. “Anxiety and negative expectation can worsen the experience of side effects.”

Four Factors for Long COVID

A study published in Nature Communications identified specific antibodies in the blood of people who developed long COVID. Long COVID is not well understood and has a range of up to 50 different symptoms, and it is difficult to diagnose because there is no one test for it. The study, conducted by Dr. Onur Boyman, a researcher in the Department of Immunology at University Hospital Zurich, compared more than 500 COVID-19 patients and found several key differences in patients who went on to present with long COVID. The most obvious was a significant decrease in two immunoglobulins, IgM and IgG3. The study found that a decrease in these two immunoglobulins, which generally rise to fight infections, combined with other factors, such as middle age and a history of asthma, was 75% effective in predicting long COVID.

75% of COVID-19 ICU Survivors Show Symptoms a Year Later

A study out of the Netherlands found that a year after being released from an intensive care unit (ICU) for severe COVID-19, 75% of patients reported lingering physical symptoms, 26% reported mental symptoms, and up to 16% noted cognitive symptoms. The research was published in JAMA. The research evaluated 246 COVID-19 survivors treated in one of 11 ICUs in the Netherlands. The mental symptoms included anxiety (17.9%), depression (18.3%), PTSD (9.8%). The most common new physical symptoms were weakness (38.9%), stiff joints (26.3%), joint pain (25.5%), muscle weakness (24.8%), muscle pain (21.3%) and shortness of breath (20.8%).

Pennsylvania Averaging Most COVID-19 Deaths Per Day in a Year

In general, COVID-19 deaths are dropping across the country. However, in two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the numbers are increasing. Pennsylvania is averaging 156 COVID-19 deaths per day over the past seven days, which is a 17% uptick compared to two weeks ago. The number of deaths per day in Pennsylvania is below what was hit in January 2021, largely due to the availability of vaccines. New Jersey averages 111 deaths from COVID-19 per day, an increase of 61% over the last two weeks and the highest since May 2020. Similarly, New Jersey cases and hospitalizations are declining.

Omicron Surge: Shattering Cases and Hospitalizations, but Less Severe

According to the CDC, although the current Omicron surge is setting records for positive infections and hospitalizations, it’s less severe than other waves by other metrics. Omicron has resulted in more than 1 million cases per day in the U.S. on several occasions, and reported deaths are presently higher than 15,000 per week. However, the ratio of emergency department visits and hospitalizations to case numbers is lower compared to COVID-19 waves for Delta and during the winter of 2020–21. ICU admissions, length of stay, and in-hospital deaths were all lower with Omicron. They cite vaccinations and booster shots as the likely cause. Although the overall result is that Omicron appears less severe, it’s not completely clear if that’s because the viral variant doesn’t infect the lower lung as easily as other variants, or because so much of the population has either been vaccinated or exposed to the virus already. It is clearly far more infectious than other strains, which is placing a real burden on healthcare systems. The number of emergency department visits is 86% higher than during the Delta surge.

J&J Expects Up to $3.5 Billion in COVID-19 Vaccine Sales This Year

Johnson & Johnson projected annual sales of its COVID-19 vaccine for 2022 to range from $3 billion to $3.5 billion. This was noted during the company’s fourth-quarter 2021 report. In December 2021, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended the PfizerBioNTech or Moderna shots over J&J’s due to a rare blood condition observed with the J&J shot. By comparison, Pfizer and BioNTech project their vaccine will bring in $29 billion in 2022, after having raked in almost $36 billion in 2021. Moderna expects approximately $18.5 billion this year, with about $3.5 billion from possible additional purchases. Although final figures for Moderna aren’t in yet, they projected 2021 sales between $15 and $18 billion.

BioSpace source:

https://www.biospace.com/article/about-35-percent-of-people-receiving-placebo-in-vaccine-trials-report-side-effects-and-more-covid-19-news

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Oil Could Be The Haven Stocks Traders Need To Shelter From Fed

Oil Could Be The Haven Stocks Traders Need To Shelter From Fed

By Nour Al Ali, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

Oil is starting to look like an unlikely haven from the stocks selloff in the run-up to anticipated Fed tightening.

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Oil Could Be The Haven Stocks Traders Need To Shelter From Fed

By Nour Al Ali, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

Oil is starting to look like an unlikely haven from the stocks selloff in the run-up to anticipated Fed tightening.

Traders are pricing lower volatility in the commodity than in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Barometers of market anxiety for both indexes have shot up recently, suggesting trader sentiment is souring. Meanwhile, the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index, which measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility of crude oil prices applying the VIX methodology to USO options, shows that oil prices are expected to remain relatively muted in comparison.

With a producer cartel to support prices, the outlook for oil is more sanguine, even if the Fed raises rates. The commodity has ample support, with global oil demand expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. The U.S. administration has been pushing oil-producing nations under the OPEC+ cartel to ramp up output, while the group has stuck to a modest production-increase plan and is expected to rubber-stamp another 400k b/d output hike when they meet next week. This means that oil is likely to stay a lot more stable than in recent years.

The relatively low correlation between the asset classes provide diversification benefits. The relationship between the S&P 500 and the global oil benchmark is weak and lacks conviction; it’s even weaker between the Nasdaq 100 and Brent crude contracts. The divergence in price action this week could indicate that stocks have been tumbling in fear of a hawkish Feb, more so than geopolitical risk alone. That would perhaps offer traders an opportunity to seek shelter amid stock volatility in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.

Oil might have tracked the decline in stocks at the beginning of this week, but the commodity is back to its highs now. It’s up close to 15% this year, while the S&P 500 is struggling to reclaim its footing after plunging as much as 10%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/26/2022 - 13:45

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Economics

AT&T down 10% despite topping estimates

AT&T (NYSE: T) has revealed that Q4 results indicated continued users for the HBO MAX, wireless and fiber segments. In addition, the company gained more postpaid phone users for the whole year than the last ten years adding one million fiber subscribe

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AT&T (NYSE: T) has revealed that Q4 results indicated continued users for the HBO MAX, wireless and fiber segments. In addition, the company gained more postpaid phone users for the whole year than the last ten years adding one million fiber subscribers. Similarly, the company beat its high-end outlook for international HBO Max and HBO users with almost 74 million subscribers as of December 31, 2021.

CEO John Stankey said:

We ended 2021 the way we started it – by growing our customer relationships, running our operations more effectively and efficiently, and sharpening our focus. Our momentum is strong and we’re confident there is more opportunity to continue to grow our customer base and drive costs from the business.

Q4 2021 revenue dropped 10% YoY

Consolidated revenue in Q4 2021 was $40.96 billion beating consensus estimates $40.68 but dropping 10% YoY, which reflects the impact of divested segments and low Business Wireline revenues. In the third quarter, the company divested US Videos, and in Q4, it divested Vrio. The drop was partially offset by high Warner Media revenues, recovery from pandemic impacts, and high Consumer Wireline and Mobility revenues. Stankey commented:

We’re at the dawn of a new age of connectivity. Our focus now is to be America’s best connectivity provider and also ensure our media assets are positioned to grow and truly become a global media distribution leader. Once we do this, we’ll unlock the true value of these businesses and provide a great opportunity for shareholders.

AT&T reported Q4 net income (loss) attributable to $5 billion or $0.69 per diluted shared share. On an adjusted basis, including merger-amortization fees, a share of DirecTV intangible amortization, gain on benefit plans, and related items, the company had an EPS of $0.78 topping consensus estimate of $0.76 per share.

AT&T had total revenue of $168.9 billion in 2021

AT&T’s consolidated revenues were $168.9 billion in 2021, compared to $171.8 billion a year ago, reflecting the split of the U.S Video division in Q3 2021, as well as the effects of other divested operations. However, higher revenues in WarnerMedia and Communications somewhat offset these declines.

For the full-year, net income (loss) attributable to commons shares was $19.9 billion or $2.76 p were per diluted share. On an adjusted basis, FY 2021 earnings per share were $3.4.

La notizia AT&T down 10% despite topping estimates era stato segnalata su Invezz.

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