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Gratitude for a Day

(Editor’s Note: This essay is reprinted from the November 1997 issue of Forecasts & Strategies. It’s a bit dated, but the message is worth repeating.) …

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(Editor’s Note: This essay is reprinted from the November 1997 issue of Forecasts & Strategies. It’s a bit dated, but the message is worth repeating.) 

As we celebrate Thanksgiving today, I wonder how much we appreciate the blessings of the marketplace — how millions of people work together to make our lives more enjoyable. We often forget that the marketplace is based on cooperation, not just competition. The following is my tribute to the benefits of the marketplace.

I wake up to music from a radio clock, roll out of bed and take a shower. A simple procedure, but how much labor, know-how and machinery went into these little things we often take for granted? I eat a bowl of cereal while reading the local newspaper. Imagine all those reporters who stayed up all night getting the paper ready for me to read and the workers who printed the paper and delivered it to my door this morning — all for 25 cents. Well, I don’t even think about it. I kiss my wife and kids goodbye (think of all the things they do to make my life worthwhile) and get into my car.

How many work hours, capital and technology did it take so that I could jump into my car, turn on the ignition and drive away? Inside my car is every luxury — air conditioning, stereo and mobile phone. How much investment of people and money was involved in creating this automobile and its gadgets?

On my way to the airport, I stop at a convenience store to buy a few items. It’s incredible how many hundreds of goods they stock to suit my fancy. When I arrive at the airport, a skycap is here waiting to check my luggage, and I walk into the terminal. Upon entering the jet, a flight attendant greets me with a smile and asks if I would like a beverage. Pilots and mechanics are fast at work to make sure my flight is safe and arrives on time. The jet is fueled — imagine all the work and effort involved in that process alone — and off I go to my destination, San Francisco, thousands of miles away. High above the earth, at 35,000 feet, the airline attendant serves me a meal, including roast beef, potatoes, vegetables and fruit. I won’t even try to figure out how many people were involved in preparing this meal from scratch, from the farmer to the cook.

After several hours, I arrive, pick up my bags at baggage claim and quickly go to the car rental counter, where a smart young man helps me choose a new automobile, ready and waiting for me to drive. I fill out a form, give him my credit card, and off I go. Driving through the streets of San Francisco, I see all the stores filled with goods, and employees ready to help me buy.

I can’t help but think of all the public employees working to make my drive safe and enjoyable — the streetlights working, and the roads paved and properly repaired. Driving over the Bay Bridge, I marvel at this mechanical miracle that was built decades ago, men and women of yesteryear who sacrificed their time, money and muscle to make it all happen…for me…today.

In less than an hour, I arrive at my hotel, where a man offers to take my car to valet parking. I walk into the hotel lobby, where I register and go to my room. Inside, I relax on a clean bed, and see an array of services and products at my fingertips. The hotel telephone can do so many things. I can call room service, the concierge for dinner reservations, or listen to messages on voice mail. I call home and check on the family, who bring me up to date on all the goings-on in Orlando. My wife tells me that she had to take my daughter to the emergency room at the hospital — she took seven stitches from an accident at an ice-skating rink. I think of the doctor, the nurses, and all those tools and machines ready to help my daughter recover. Fortunately, she’s okay.

After hanging up, I pick up the TV remote control and push a button. One channel informs me of all the trading on Wall Street and the world for the day. A second channel runs a classic movie from the 1940s. A third is a sports channel. Can you imagine how many years of training it took for those athletes to compete?

Right before I go out for the evening, a fax message is delivered to my door. It’s from my publisher, who has prepared my latest marketing piece for my newsletter. People seem to be working overtime for me. I walk out of the hotel room, get into a taxi and go to a local Chinese restaurant. There they are, all these cooks and waiters, just waiting to serve me and my friends. Following dinner, we go to the theater and see a delightful musical play. The actors and the orchestra are magnificent. I think about all the years of training it took those actors and musicians to perform like that. What a wonderful evening.

On the way home, I see a military cemetery, filled with white crosses of soldiers who died so that I could live in a free country.

Coming back to my hotel room, I note that the maid has turned down my bed and left a chocolate on the nightstand. I walk into the bathroom and brush my teeth. I marvel at the little things the hotel management has arranged to make my visit a pleasurable stay. Just the plumbing itself is a modern miracle. Climbing into bed, I turn on the TV and see a comedian on a talk show. I wonder how long it took for her and her researchers to come up with those funny lines.

What an amazing day it has been. The marketplace is at my beck and call. All these things to enjoy. Of course, I had to pay for all those goods and services, and without money or credit, I could not have benefited from the commercial flight, car rental, hotel, taxi, telephone calls, dinner at the restaurant, theater, and a host of other things. But surely it was a small price to pay compared to the benefits received, most of which I could never have done myself. And for that I get on my knees and thank God for the world we live in.

The High Point of My Visit to North Carolina

Last week, my wife and I spent several days in North Carolina, where I gave lectures at Wake Forest University, High Point University and the AAII investment group in Raleigh.

The highlight was visiting the incredible campus of High Point University. Dr. Nido Qubein, a Lebanese immigrant and businessman/banker, returned to his alma mater to become president in 2005, and he has transformed a struggling little liberal arts college into a free-market powerhouse institution in North Carolina.

I gave two lectures there, one to the investment club and another to over 100 business/economics/finance students on gross output (GO) and “What drives the economy?”

Wow, what a beautiful campus! It is now home to over 100 buildings, and it is growing fast: Go here to find out why it is “the premier life skills university.” It just goes to show you how important a dynamic, growth-oriented college president can be.

Among others, Steve Wozniak (co-founder of Apple) is the Innovator in Residence at High Point.

Qubein is very pro-capitalist and anti-woke. He said High Point University was the only college that stayed open during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in North Carolina.

And the students are active and willing to learn. Students don’t normally buy books these days, but the investment students did — they bought a dozen of my “Maxims on Wall Street.”

Dozens of Subscribers are Buying ‘Maxims’ for the Holidays

I’m also delighted that many of you are ordering one or more copies of the “Maxims” as gifts for the holidays. You can give them to friends, clients and students. Over the past week, I received multiple orders.

The price of the 10th-anniversary edition is only $20 for the first copy and $10 for all additional copies. A whole box of 32 copies is priced at just $300. I autograph and number each one, and I even mail them at no extra charge if the address is inside the United States. To order, go to www.skousenbooks.com.

May you all have a wonderful Thanksgiving this week. We have much to be thankful for in this land of the free.

Yours for peace, prosperity and liberty, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

You Nailed It!

Election Integrity: The French Do It Right! 

At next year’s FreedomFest  (July 12-15, 2023, in Memphis, Tennessee) we are going to have a special session on the all-important question of election integrity.

It’s not often we turn to France to learn how to do things right, but when it comes to voting, the French are light years ahead of the United States.

Since the 2020 pandemic, most states have allowed and even encouraged voting by mail, which creates the possibility of voter fraud or rumors of voter irregularities.

The French are different, as Canadian Frenchman Jean-Benoit Nadeau and his wife Julie Barlow write in their book “Sixty Million French Can’t Be Wrong.” (I had them speak at FreedomFest several years ago, and they were a hit.)

I highly recommend their book, and you can buy it here.

The French vote on election day only — no early voting. And there is no absentee voting either. French men and women living or working abroad must go to the French embassy or consulate to vote on election day.

They don’t use electronic voting ballots, which may be compromised. They use paper ballots in paper envelopes.

And yet they are still able to count all the votes at the end of the day.

Check it out in this report.

Jean-Benoit Nadeau wrote me this week and added the following about the French voting system:

1) All citizens are automatically registered to vote. Voting is not mandatory, but it is facilitated by the fact that it always takes place on a Sunday, when most citizens have a day of rest.

2) There is also no gerrymandering. The electoral map corresponds exactly to the administrative map, and that’s it.

3) The rules are set by the Ministry of the Interior, and the vote is administered by towns, and it always takes place in primary schools (except abroad where it is administered by consulates).

Call it old school, but it works. Vive la France!

 

The post Gratitude for a Day appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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