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Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio

Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to Technavio, the glo…

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Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the global gallium arsenide components market size is estimated to grow by USD 3266.55 million from 2022 to 2027. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.19% during the forecast period. APAC held the largest share of the global market in 2022, and the market in the region is estimated to witness an incremental growth of 79%. For more Insights on market size, Request a sample report

Gallium arsenide components market - Five Forces

The global cloud data warehouse market is fragmented, and the five forces analysis covers– 

  • Bargaining Power of Buyers 
  • The threat of New Entrants
  • Threat of Rivalry
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • Interpretation of porter's five models helps to strategize the business, for entire details – buy the report!

Gallium arsenide components market – Customer Landscape 

The report includes the market's adoption lifecycle, from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their growth strategies.

Gallium arsenide components market - Segmentation Assessment

Segment Overview

Technavio has segmented the market based on the type (LEC grown GaAs and VGF grown GaAs), application (mobile devices, wireless communication, and others), and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa). 

  • The market growth will be significant in the LEC Grown GaAs segment during the forecast period. The segment is driven by the high usage of semi-insulating GaAs single crystals in the semiconductor industry. Also, growing developments in wireless communication, satellite technology, and other wireless networks are expected to contribute to the growth of the segment during the forecast period.
Geography Overview

By geography, the global gallium arsenide components market is segmented into APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global gallium arsenide components market.

  • APAC will account for 79% of the market growth during the forecast period. The growth of the regional market can be attributed to the high demand for gallium arsenide components from communication device manufacturers. Also, the increasing demand for various consumer electronics such as smartphones and laptops is driving the growth of the gallium arsenide components market in APAC.

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Gallium arsenide components market – Market Dynamics

Key factor driving market growth

  • The market is driven by the rising adoption of smartphones and tablets.
  • The increasing availability of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets such as China and India and the growing penetration of the internet have led to a growth in the shipment of smartphones worldwide.
  • For instance, the shipment of smartphones reached more than 1.3 billion units in 2021 compared with 1.2 billion in 2020.
  • The global rise in the adoption of smartphones and tablets is increasing the demand for gallium arsenide components, especially GaAs power amplifiers, thereby driving the growth of the market.

Leading trends influencing the market 

  • The emergence of high-powered electronic devices is one of the major trends in the market.
  • Electronic device manufacturers are replacing silicon-based wafers with gallium arsenide (GaAs) components.
  • Integration of GaAs components delivers high speed, accuracy, and reliability, which are essential in high-powered devices.
  • GaAs components are energy-efficient and are small enough to fit into compact devices. Also, they offer a reduction in cost in the long run and substantial improvement in device characteristics that allow the addition of new performance capabilities to the device, enabling vendors to introduce better offerings in the market.
  • With the growing adoption of high-powered electronic devices, the demand for GaAs components will increase during the forecast period.

Major challenges hindering market growth

  • The availability of alternative devices is a major challenge hindering market growth.
  • Over recent years, GaN, SiGe, LDMOS, and CMOS devices have emerged as alternatives to GaAs devices. These are widely used in a wide range of applications in the electronics industry.
  • For instance, CMOS power amplifiers are being used in entry-level phones and are expected to be used in smartphones as well.
  • Thus, many end-user applications served by GaAs components are now being targeted by these alternative technologies, which could reduce the demand for GaAs components during the forecast period.

Driver, trend, and challenges are the factors of market dynamics that state about consequences & sustainability of the businesses, find some insights from a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this gallium arsenide components market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the gallium arsenide components market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the gallium arsenide components market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the gallium arsenide components market industry across APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of gallium arsenide components market vendors

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  • The GaN RF devices market size is expected to increase by USD 1.19 billion from 2021 to 2026, and the market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 17.3%. The increasing use in broadcasting applications is notably driving the GaN RF devices market growth, although factors such as the high cost of raw materials and the production process may impede the market growth.

Gallium Arsenide Components Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

162

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.19%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 3266.55 million

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

5.62

Regional analysis

APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

APAC at 79%

Key countries

US, South Korea, China, India, and Taiwan

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Analog Devices Inc., AXT Inc., Broadcom Inc., CMK Ltd., DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd, Edmund Optics Inc., Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH, Furukawa Denshi Co. Ltd., Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV, II-VI Inc., Logitech Ltd., MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc., Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd., NXP Semiconductors NV, Qorvo Inc., Reade International Corp., Skyworks Solutions Inc., Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd., Umicore NV, and Western Minmetals SC Corp.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global gallium arsenide components market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global gallium arsenide components market 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.2 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.3 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Type 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 6.3 LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on LEC grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on LEC grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on VGF grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on VGF grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Type ($ million)

7 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 7.3 Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Mobile devices - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Mobile devices - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Wireless communication - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Wireless communication - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.6 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 59: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 60: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on Taiwan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on Taiwan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 105: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 106: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 107: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 108: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 109: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 110: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 111: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Analog Devices Inc. 
    • Exhibit 112: Analog Devices Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: Analog Devices Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 114: Analog Devices Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 115: Analog Devices Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 AXT Inc. 
    • Exhibit 116: AXT Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 117: AXT Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 118: AXT Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Broadcom Inc. 
    • Exhibit 119: Broadcom Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 120: Broadcom Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 121: Broadcom Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 122: Broadcom Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 123: Broadcom Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.6 DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd 
    • Exhibit 124: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 126: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Key offerings
  • 12.7 Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH 
    • Exhibit 127: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 129: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV
    • Exhibit 130: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Overview
    • Exhibit 131: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 132: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Key offerings
  • 12.9 II-VI Inc. 
    • Exhibit 133: II-VI Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 134: II-VI Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 135: II-VI Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 136: II-VI Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 137: II-VI Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 Logitech Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 138: Logitech Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 139: Logitech Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 140: Logitech Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.11 MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.
    • Exhibit 141: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 142: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 143: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.12 Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 144: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 146: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 147: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 148: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.13 NXP Semiconductors NV 
    • Exhibit 149: NXP Semiconductors NV - Overview
    • Exhibit 150: NXP Semiconductors NV - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 151: NXP Semiconductors NV - Key news
    • Exhibit 152: NXP Semiconductors NV - Key offerings
  • 12.14 Qorvo Inc. 
    • Exhibit 153: Qorvo Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 154: Qorvo Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 155: Qorvo Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 156: Qorvo Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Skyworks Solutions Inc. 
    • Exhibit 157: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 158: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 159: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 160: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 161: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 162: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 163: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 164: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.17 Umicore NV 
    • Exhibit 165: Umicore NV - Overview
    • Exhibit 166: Umicore NV - Business segments
    • Exhibit 167: Umicore NV - Key news
    • Exhibit 168: Umicore NV - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 169: Umicore NV - Segment focus

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 170: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 171: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 172: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 173: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 174: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 175: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 176: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Technavio Research
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US: +1 844 364 1100
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Email: media@technavio.com
Website: www.technavio.com/

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Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

----- Monday, January 30th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, January 31st -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, February 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Thursday, February 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
----- Friday, February 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December.

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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

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The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.

“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.

“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”
Interest rates on U.S. government debt chart (screenshot). Source: Wall Street Silver/ Twitter

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.

The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.

Crypto pain before pleasure?

Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.

Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.

If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Stay Ahead of GDP: 3 Charts to Become a Smarter Trader

When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report…

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When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the quarter, and Wall Street wasn't disappointed. The day the report was released, the market closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) up 0.61%, the S&P 500 index ($SPX) up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.76%. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Energy were the top-performing S&P sectors.

Add to the GDP report strong earnings from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and a mega announcement from Chevron Corp. (CVX)—raising dividends and a $75 billion buyback round—and you get a strong day in the stock markets.

Why is the GDP Report Important?

If a country's GDP is growing faster than expected, it could be a positive indication of economic strength. It means that consumer spending, business investment, and exports, among other factors, are going strong. But the GDP is just one indicator, and one indicator doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's a good idea to look at other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment, before making a conclusion.

Inflation appears to be cooling, but the labor market continues to be strong. The Fed has stated in many of its previous meetings that it'll be closely watching the labor market. So that'll be a sticky point as we get close to the next Fed meeting. Consumer spending is also strong, according to the GDP report. But that could have been because of increased auto sales and spending on services such as health care, personal care, and utilities. Retail sales released earlier in January indicated that holiday sales were lower.

There's a chance we could see retail sales slowing in Q1 2023 as some households run out of savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, as a slowdown in retail sales could mean increases in inventories. And this is something that could decrease economic activity.

Overall, the recent GDP report indicates the U.S. economy is strong, although some economists feel we'll probably see some downside in 2023, though not a recession. But the one drawback of the GDP report is that it's lagging. It comes out after the fact. Wouldn't it be great if you had known this ahead of time so you could position your trades to take advantage of the rally? While there's no way to know with 100% accuracy, there are ways to identify probable events.

3 Ways To Stay Ahead of the Curve

Instead of waiting for three months to get next quarter's GDP report, you can gauge the potential strength or weakness of the overall U.S. economy. Steven Sears, in his book The Indomitable Investor, suggested looking at these charts:

  • Copper prices
  • High-yield corporate bonds
  • Small-cap stocks

Copper: An Economic Indicator

You may not hear much about copper, but it's used in the manufacture of several goods and in construction. Given that manufacturing and construction make up a big chunk of economic activity, the red metal is more important than you may have thought. If you look at the chart of copper futures ($COPPER) you'll see that, in October 2022, the price of copper was trading sideways, but, in November, its price rose and trended quite a bit higher. This would have been an indication of a strengthening economy.

CHART 1: COPPER CONTINUOUS FUTURES CONTRACTS. Copper prices have been rising since November 2022. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

High-Yield Bonds: Risk On Indicator

The higher the risk, the higher the yield. That's the premise behind high-yield bonds. In short, companies that are leveraged, smaller, or just starting to grow may not have the solid balance sheets that more established companies are likely to have. If the economy slows down, investors are likely to sell the high-yield bonds and pick up the safer U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why the flight to safety? It's because when the economy is sluggish, the companies that issue the high-yield bonds tend to find it difficult to service their debts. When the economy is expanding, the opposite happens—they tend to perform better.

The chart below of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) shows that, since the end of October 2022, the index trended higher. Similar to copper prices, high-yield corporate bond activity was also indicating economic expansion. You'll see similar action in charts of high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK).

CHART 2: HIGH-YIELD BONDS TRENDING HIGHER. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) has been trending higher since end of October 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Small-Cap Stocks: They're Sensitive

Pull up a chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you'll see similar price action (see chart 3). Since mid-October, small-cap stocks (the Russell 2000 index is made up of 2000 small companies) have been moving higher.

CHART 3: SMALL-CAP STOCKS TRENDING HIGHER. When the economy is expanding, small-cap stocks trend higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Three's Company

If all three of these indicators are showing strength, you can expect the GDP number to be strong. There are times when the GDP number may not impact the markets, but, when inflation is a problem and the Fed is trying to curb it by raising interest rates, the GDP number tends to impact the markets.

This scenario is likely to play out in 2023, so it would be worth your while to set up a GDP Tracker ChartList. Want a live link to the charts used in this article? They're all right here.


Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan

Director, Site Content

StockCharts.com

 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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