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Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio

Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to Technavio, the glo…

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Gallium arsenide components market 2023-2027; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the global gallium arsenide components market size is estimated to grow by USD 3266.55 million from 2022 to 2027. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.19% during the forecast period. APAC held the largest share of the global market in 2022, and the market in the region is estimated to witness an incremental growth of 79%. For more Insights on market size, Request a sample report

Gallium arsenide components market - Five Forces

The global cloud data warehouse market is fragmented, and the five forces analysis covers– 

  • Bargaining Power of Buyers 
  • The threat of New Entrants
  • Threat of Rivalry
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • Interpretation of porter's five models helps to strategize the business, for entire details – buy the report!

Gallium arsenide components market – Customer Landscape 

The report includes the market's adoption lifecycle, from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their growth strategies.

Gallium arsenide components market - Segmentation Assessment

Segment Overview

Technavio has segmented the market based on the type (LEC grown GaAs and VGF grown GaAs), application (mobile devices, wireless communication, and others), and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa). 

  • The market growth will be significant in the LEC Grown GaAs segment during the forecast period. The segment is driven by the high usage of semi-insulating GaAs single crystals in the semiconductor industry. Also, growing developments in wireless communication, satellite technology, and other wireless networks are expected to contribute to the growth of the segment during the forecast period.
Geography Overview

By geography, the global gallium arsenide components market is segmented into APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global gallium arsenide components market.

  • APAC will account for 79% of the market growth during the forecast period. The growth of the regional market can be attributed to the high demand for gallium arsenide components from communication device manufacturers. Also, the increasing demand for various consumer electronics such as smartphones and laptops is driving the growth of the gallium arsenide components market in APAC.

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Gallium arsenide components market – Market Dynamics

Key factor driving market growth

  • The market is driven by the rising adoption of smartphones and tablets.
  • The increasing availability of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets such as China and India and the growing penetration of the internet have led to a growth in the shipment of smartphones worldwide.
  • For instance, the shipment of smartphones reached more than 1.3 billion units in 2021 compared with 1.2 billion in 2020.
  • The global rise in the adoption of smartphones and tablets is increasing the demand for gallium arsenide components, especially GaAs power amplifiers, thereby driving the growth of the market.

Leading trends influencing the market 

  • The emergence of high-powered electronic devices is one of the major trends in the market.
  • Electronic device manufacturers are replacing silicon-based wafers with gallium arsenide (GaAs) components.
  • Integration of GaAs components delivers high speed, accuracy, and reliability, which are essential in high-powered devices.
  • GaAs components are energy-efficient and are small enough to fit into compact devices. Also, they offer a reduction in cost in the long run and substantial improvement in device characteristics that allow the addition of new performance capabilities to the device, enabling vendors to introduce better offerings in the market.
  • With the growing adoption of high-powered electronic devices, the demand for GaAs components will increase during the forecast period.

Major challenges hindering market growth

  • The availability of alternative devices is a major challenge hindering market growth.
  • Over recent years, GaN, SiGe, LDMOS, and CMOS devices have emerged as alternatives to GaAs devices. These are widely used in a wide range of applications in the electronics industry.
  • For instance, CMOS power amplifiers are being used in entry-level phones and are expected to be used in smartphones as well.
  • Thus, many end-user applications served by GaAs components are now being targeted by these alternative technologies, which could reduce the demand for GaAs components during the forecast period.

Driver, trend, and challenges are the factors of market dynamics that state about consequences & sustainability of the businesses, find some insights from a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this gallium arsenide components market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the gallium arsenide components market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the gallium arsenide components market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the gallium arsenide components market industry across APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of gallium arsenide components market vendors

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  • The GaN RF devices market size is expected to increase by USD 1.19 billion from 2021 to 2026, and the market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 17.3%. The increasing use in broadcasting applications is notably driving the GaN RF devices market growth, although factors such as the high cost of raw materials and the production process may impede the market growth.

Gallium Arsenide Components Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

162

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.19%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 3266.55 million

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

5.62

Regional analysis

APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

APAC at 79%

Key countries

US, South Korea, China, India, and Taiwan

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Analog Devices Inc., AXT Inc., Broadcom Inc., CMK Ltd., DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd, Edmund Optics Inc., Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH, Furukawa Denshi Co. Ltd., Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV, II-VI Inc., Logitech Ltd., MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc., Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd., NXP Semiconductors NV, Qorvo Inc., Reade International Corp., Skyworks Solutions Inc., Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd., Umicore NV, and Western Minmetals SC Corp.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global gallium arsenide components market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global gallium arsenide components market 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.2 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.3 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Type 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 6.3 LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on LEC grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on LEC grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on LEC grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on VGF grown GaAs - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on VGF grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on VGF grown GaAs - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Type ($ million)

7 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 7.3 Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Mobile devices - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Mobile devices - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Mobile devices - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Wireless communication - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Wireless communication - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Wireless communication - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.6 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 59: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 60: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on Taiwan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on Taiwan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on Taiwan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 105: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 106: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 107: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 108: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 109: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 110: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 111: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Analog Devices Inc. 
    • Exhibit 112: Analog Devices Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: Analog Devices Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 114: Analog Devices Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 115: Analog Devices Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 AXT Inc. 
    • Exhibit 116: AXT Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 117: AXT Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 118: AXT Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Broadcom Inc. 
    • Exhibit 119: Broadcom Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 120: Broadcom Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 121: Broadcom Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 122: Broadcom Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 123: Broadcom Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.6 DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd 
    • Exhibit 124: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 126: DOWA Electronics Materials Co Ltd - Key offerings
  • 12.7 Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH 
    • Exhibit 127: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 129: Freiberger Compound Materials GmbH - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV
    • Exhibit 130: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Overview
    • Exhibit 131: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 132: Hanergy Thin Film Power EME BV - Key offerings
  • 12.9 II-VI Inc. 
    • Exhibit 133: II-VI Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 134: II-VI Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 135: II-VI Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 136: II-VI Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 137: II-VI Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 Logitech Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 138: Logitech Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 139: Logitech Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 140: Logitech Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.11 MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.
    • Exhibit 141: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 142: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 143: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.12 Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 144: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 146: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 147: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 148: Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.13 NXP Semiconductors NV 
    • Exhibit 149: NXP Semiconductors NV - Overview
    • Exhibit 150: NXP Semiconductors NV - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 151: NXP Semiconductors NV - Key news
    • Exhibit 152: NXP Semiconductors NV - Key offerings
  • 12.14 Qorvo Inc. 
    • Exhibit 153: Qorvo Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 154: Qorvo Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 155: Qorvo Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 156: Qorvo Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Skyworks Solutions Inc. 
    • Exhibit 157: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 158: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 159: Skyworks Solutions Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 160: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 161: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 162: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 163: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 164: Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.17 Umicore NV 
    • Exhibit 165: Umicore NV - Overview
    • Exhibit 166: Umicore NV - Business segments
    • Exhibit 167: Umicore NV - Key news
    • Exhibit 168: Umicore NV - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 169: Umicore NV - Segment focus

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 170: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 171: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 172: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 173: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 174: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 175: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 176: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Email: media@technavio.com
Website: www.technavio.com/

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming…

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'Bougie Broke' - The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming to be Bougie Broke share pictures of their fancy cars, high-fashion clothing, and selfies in exotic locations and expensive restaurants. Yet they complain about living paycheck to paycheck and lacking the means to support their lifestyle.

Bougie broke is like “keeping up with the Joneses,” spending beyond one’s means to impress others.

Bougie Broke gives us a glimpse into the financial condition of a growing number of consumers. Since personal consumption represents about two-thirds of economic activity, it’s worth diving into the Bougie Broke fad to appreciate if a large subset of the population can continue to consume at current rates.

The Wealth Divide Disclaimer

Forecasting personal consumption is always tricky, but it has become even more challenging in the post-pandemic era. To appreciate why we share a joke told by Mike Green.

Bill Gates and I walk into the bar…

Bartender: “Wow… a couple of billionaires on average!”

Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and other billionaires make us all much richer, on average. Unfortunately, we can’t use the average to pay our bills.

According to Wikipedia, Bill Gates is one of 756 billionaires living in the United States. Many of these billionaires became much wealthier due to the pandemic as their investment fortunes proliferated.

To appreciate the wealth divide, consider the graph below courtesy of Statista. 1% of the U.S. population holds 30% of the wealth. The wealthiest 10% of households have two-thirds of the wealth. The bottom half of the population accounts for less than 3% of the wealth.

The uber-wealthy grossly distorts consumption and savings data. And, with the sharp increase in their wealth over the past few years, the consumption and savings data are more distorted.

Furthermore, and critical to appreciate, the spending by the wealthy doesn’t fluctuate with the economy. Therefore, the spending of the lower wealth classes drives marginal changes in consumption. As such, the condition of the not-so-wealthy is most important for forecasting changes in consumption.

Revenge Spending

Deciphering personal data has also become more difficult because our spending habits have changed due to the pandemic.

A great example is revenge spending. Per the New York Times:

Ola Majekodunmi, the founder of All Things Money, a finance site for young adults, explained revenge spending as expenditures meant to make up for “lost time” after an event like the pandemic.

So, between the growing wealth divide and irregular spending habits, let’s quantify personal savings, debt usage, and real wages to appreciate better if Bougie Broke is a mass movement or a silly meme.

The Means To Consume 

Savings, debt, and wages are the three primary sources that give consumers the ability to consume.

Savings

The graph below shows the rollercoaster on which personal savings have been since the pandemic. The savings rate is hovering at the lowest rate since those seen before the 2008 recession. The total amount of personal savings is back to 2017 levels. But, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it’s at 10-year lows. On average, most consumers are drawing down their savings or less. Given that wages are increasing and unemployment is historically low, they must be consuming more.

Now, strip out the savings of the uber-wealthy, and it’s probable that the amount of personal savings for much of the population is negligible. A survey by Payroll.org estimates that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

More on Insufficient Savings

The Fed’s latest, albeit old, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households from June 2023 claims that over a third of households do not have enough savings to cover an unexpected $400 expense. We venture to guess that number has grown since then. To wit, the number of households with essentially no savings rose 5% from their prior report a year earlier.  

Relatively small, unexpected expenses, such as a car repair or a modest medical bill, can be a hardship for many families. When faced with a hypothetical expense of $400, 63 percent of all adults in 2022 said they would have covered it exclusively using cash, savings, or a credit card paid off at the next statement (referred to, altogether, as “cash or its equivalent”). The remainder said they would have paid by borrowing or selling something or said they would not have been able to cover the expense.

Debt

After periods where consumers drained their existing savings and/or devoted less of their paychecks to savings, they either slowed their consumption patterns or borrowed to keep them up. Currently, it seems like many are choosing the latter option. Consumer borrowing is accelerating at a quicker pace than it was before the pandemic. 

The first graph below shows outstanding credit card debt fell during the pandemic as the economy cratered. However, after multiple stimulus checks and broad-based economic recovery, consumer confidence rose, and with it, credit card balances surged.

The current trend is steeper than the pre-pandemic trend. Some may be a catch-up, but the current rate is unsustainable. Consequently, borrowing will likely slow down to its pre-pandemic trend or even below it as consumers deal with higher credit card balances and 20+% interest rates on the debt.

The second graph shows that since 2022, credit card balances have grown faster than our incomes. Like the first graph, the credit usage versus income trend is unsustainable, especially with current interest rates.

With many consumers maxing out their credit cards, is it any wonder buy-now-pay-later loans (BNPL) are increasing rapidly?

Insider Intelligence believes that 79 million Americans, or a quarter of those over 18 years old, use BNPL. Lending Tree claims that “nearly 1 in 3 consumers (31%) say they’re at least considering using a buy now, pay later (BNPL) loan this month.”More tellingaccording to their survey, only 52% of those asked are confident they can pay off their BNPL loan without missing a payment!

Wage Growth

Wages have been growing above trend since the pandemic. Since 2022, the average annual growth in compensation has been 6.28%. Higher incomes support more consumption, but higher prices reduce the amount of goods or services one can buy. Over the same period, real compensation has grown by less than half a percent annually. The average real compensation growth was 2.30% during the three years before the pandemic.

In other words, compensation is just keeping up with inflation instead of outpacing it and providing consumers with the ability to consume, save, or pay down debt.

It’s All About Employment

The unemployment rate is 3.9%, up slightly from recent lows but still among the lowest rates in the last seventy-five years.

The uptick in credit card usage, decline in savings, and the savings rate argue that consumers are slowly running out of room to keep consuming at their current pace.

However, the most significant means by which we consume is income. If the unemployment rate stays low, consumption may moderate. But, if the recent uptick in unemployment continues, a recession is extremely likely, as we have seen every time it turned higher.

It’s not just those losing jobs that consume less. Of greater impact is a loss of confidence by those employed when they see friends or neighbors being laid off.   

Accordingly, the labor market is probably the most important leading indicator of consumption and of the ability of the Bougie Broke to continue to be Bougie instead of flat-out broke!

Summary

There are always consumers living above their means. This is often harmless until their means decline or disappear. The Bougie Broke meme and the ability social media gives consumers to flaunt their “wealth” is a new medium for an age-old message.

Diving into the data, it argues that consumption will likely slow in the coming months. Such would allow some consumers to save and whittle down their debt. That situation would be healthy and unlikely to cause a recession.

The potential for the unemployment rate to continue higher is of much greater concern. The combination of a higher unemployment rate and strapped consumers could accentuate a recession.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 09:25

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The most potent labor market indicator of all is still strongly positive

  – by New Deal democratOn Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently…

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 - by New Deal democrat


On Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently than not indicated a recession was near or underway. But I concluded by noting that this survey has historically been noisy, and I thought it would be resolved away this time. Specifically, there was strong contrary data from the Establishment survey, backed up by yesterday’s inflation report, to the contrary. Today I’ll examine that, looking at two other series.


Historically, as economic expansions progress and the unemployment rate goes down, average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers improve at an increasing rate (blue in the graph below). But eventually, inflation (red) picks up and overtakes that wage growth, and a recession occurs shortly thereafter. Not always, as we’ll see in the graph below, but usually:



As you can see, there have been a number of exceptions to the rule, chiefly where inflation outstripped wage growth, but no recession happened anyway. Typically this has occurred because of the entry of so many more people (like women in the 1980s and early 1990s) into the labor force.

And we certainly see that inflation outstripped wages in 2022, not coincidentally when there were several negative quarters of real GDP. But with the decline in gas prices, in 2023 inflation subsided much more sharply than wage growth, and the economy improved more substantially. That has remained the case in the first two months of 2024.

But an even more potent indicator is one I have come to rely on even more: real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. Here’s its historical record up until the pandemic:



There’s not a single false positive, nor a single false negative. If YoY aggregate payroll growth is stronger than YoY inflation, you’re in an expansion. If it’s weaker, you’re in a recession. Period.

And here is its record since the pandemic:



Real aggregate nonsurpervisory payrolls are positive, and they got more positive in 2023 compared with 2022. Currently they are 2.6% higher YoY than inflation.

In addition to the YoY comparison, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls have always declined, at least slightly, from their expansion peaks before every single recession in the past 50 years except for when the pandemic suddenly shut down the economy:



Not every slight decline means a recession is coming. But if real aggregate payrolls are at a new high, you’re not in a recession, and one isn’t likely to occur in the next 6 months, either.

And in case it isn’t clear from that long term graph, here’s the short term graph of the same thing:



Real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls made a new all-time high in February. Despite the negative metrics in the Household survey, this is *very* potent evidence that not only are we not in a recession, but one isn’t likely in the immediate future either.


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