Connect with us

Uncategorized

Futures Steady Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Futures Steady Ahead Of Fed Minutes

US equity futures were steady, trading in a narrow 15 point range before the release of minutes from the…

Published

on

Futures Steady Ahead Of Fed Minutes

US equity futures were steady, trading in a narrow 15 point range before the release of minutes from the latest Fed meeting which may signal that the pace of rate hikes may slow. S&P500 futures up 0.1% by 7:30 a.m. ET, swinging between gains and losses, after the underlying index closed above 4,000 for the first time since Sept. 12 amid lighter trading before Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% after the tech-heavy index climbed 1.5% on Tuesday. Credit Suisse shares plunged below their record closing low after the bank warned of a fourth-quarter loss. Oil fell as the EU discussed imposing a price cap on Russian oil between $65 and $70 a barrel (which Russia will never comply with). The Bloomberg dollar index erased earlier declines. Ten-year US Treasury yields rose by one basis point.

In premarket trading, Nordstrom sank 10% after reporting late Tuesday that gross margin for the fiscal third quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate. The department-store operator also reiterated its full-year outlook despite topping analysts’ expectations for adjusted earnings per share and revenue. The stock had ended Tuesday’s regular session at the highest level in three months amid a rally among retail shares. Tesla gained after Citigroup upgraded the electric-vehicle maker to neutral from sell. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Manchester United shares jump 11% in US premarket trading as the owners of the football club, the Glazer family, work with financial advisers on a partial sale of the club or investments including stadium and infrastructure redevelopment.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rally anew as Bitcoin extended its rebound into a second session, though investors were keeping an eye out for signs of any contagion from the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire. Coinbase +3.6%, Riot Blockchain +3.8%, Marathon Digital +4%, Core Scientific +11%
  • Keep an eye on Medtronic as the stock was cut to neutral from buy at Citi, with the broker saying the medical-equipment group’s quarterly results were the “straw that broke the camel’s back.”
  • MacroGenics shares gained about 4% in postmarket trading on Tuesday after Guggenheim Securities raised its rating on the stock to buy from neutral, citing a stronger balance sheet and near-term clinical data catalysts.

The publication of minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 1-2 meeting -- due at 2 p.m. in Washington -- will be studied for how united policymakers were over a higher peak for interest rates than previously signaled in their inflation fight. Some investors anticipate that lower-than-estimated inflation figures could prompt the Fed to temper the size of its rate hikes as early as at next month’s gathering. After an initial shock from Chair Jerome Powell’s comments earlier this month, US equities have turned higher on expectations that lower-than-estimated inflation figures could prompt the Fed to tame the size of its rate hikes.

The minutes are “likely to shed some light into how many FOMC members are becoming concerned about policy lags and the impacts of such lags on the US economy,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “With Fed Chair Powell keen to impress on the market that he wants to limit the scale of advances in the equity markets, it will be interesting to see how many other Fed officials share that view.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 crept 0.1% higher to a fresh three-month high as travel and leisure and mining stocks gained. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.5%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.3%. Miners, travel and energy are the strongest performing sectors.  Credit Suisse Group shares dropped below their record closing low after the bank warned of a fourth-quarter loss and revealed a record $88 billion outflow. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Britvic shares rise as much as 4.9% after the UK soft-drinks maker reported full-year sales and earnings that beat estimates. Goodbody said the results bode well for the year ahead.
  • Glencore gains as much as 4.8%, the most since Nov. 4, after Bernstein analysts upgraded the miner to outperform from market perform, saying it is best positioned to take advantage of thermal coal prices amid the gas shortage in Europe.
  • CTS Eventim shares climb as much as 5%, touching the highest since June, after Baader raised the ticket seller to add from reduce, saying it is delivering a “very strong business recovery.”
  • Rotork shares rise as much as 4.5%. The industrial valve maker’s reiterated guidance and in-line results should be welcome, while the margin outlook is also positive, analysts said.
  • Endesa shares drop as much as 6.5%, the most intraday since June, after the Spanish utility gave guidance for lower-than-expected profits for the next two years.
  • Credit Suisse drops as much as 6.2% after the troubled lender said it will book a loss of up to 1.5b Swiss francs for the fourth quarter and reported further outflows of wealth management funds. Vontobel said massive net outflows in wealth management are “deeply concerning.”
  • Siemens Healthineers shares fall as much as 4.5% after it was cut to hold from buy at Jefferies, with the broker seeing limited scope for any upside in the medtech group’s FY23 guidance.
  • EMS-Chemie shares drop as much as 4.7% after the chemicals company warned on profits, citing worsening demand from the automotive sector.

European investors digested data showing that private-sector activity in Germany and France -- the euro area’s top two economies -- contracted in November, painting a bleak picture for a region that may already be in recession. A separate survey showed that the UK economy is in recession, with the downturn expected to worsen into 2023.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s minutes to assess the US rate-hike path while weighing risks from China’s Covid lockdowns and regulatory crackdown.  The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 0.7%, led by gains in tech and energy stocks. Alibaba and other Chinese internet firms were the biggest individual contributors to the measure’s gain.  Equities in Hong Kong snapped a five-day losing streak while those in mainland China closed with a small gain as investors analyze impact of virus curbs. Traders were also cautious following a report that Chinese authorities are planning to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on Jack Ma’s Ant Group. Elsewhere, benchmarks in Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and Indonesia posted moderate gains. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.  In a move to fight the spread of Covid, Shanghai will ask new arrivals into the city to stay away from public venues for five days starting from Thursday, as Chinese authorities revert to tougher virus restrictions amid a nationwide surge in infections. “China Covid will continue to create volatility, but it wasn’t completely unexpected and is somewhat priced in,” said Charu Chanana, senior markets strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “For now, equities are getting a push from weaker yields overnight and expectations that FOMC minutes may be dovish.”  The minutes of the Fed’s November meeting will likely reveal a consensus among policymakers that the central bank needs to slow rate hikes. Investors are also digesting a slew of corporate earnings from Asia.

Indian shares rose for a second straight day, helped by gains in banking stocks. A drop in index-heavy Reliance Industries and software firms trimmed gains.  The S&P BSE Sensex gained rose 0.2% to 61,510.58 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index added 0.1%. Twelve of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sector sub-gauges gained, led by a measure of banking stocks, trading close to a record high after climbing about 21% this year.  Foreign investors have largely been buyers of local shares since end of September. However, the global funds are also taking profit from some of top performers regularly.

Australian stocks rose to the highest since June as miners gained. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,231.80, extending gains for a second session, following Wall Street higher amid positive earnings and a focus on Federal Reserve minutes due later Wednesday.  Mining and bank shares contributed most to the benchmarks advance.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 11,323.80, as the central bank raised interest rates by a record 75 basis points and signaled further tightening ahead, stepping up its inflation fight even as it forecasts a recession next year

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index flatlined as G-10 peers moved in narrow ranges. Scandinavian currencies were the best G-10 performers while the yen and the Canadian dollar were the worst.

  • The New Zealand dollar pared gains after earlier advancing by as much 0.7% versus the greenback. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 75 basis points, as expected, and said rates will peak at 5.5% instead of 4.1%, and forecasts a recession next year as it seeks to contain inflation. The nation’s 2-year bond yield added 20bps
  • The euro steadied around $1.03. European bond curves flattened and underperformed Treasuries as markets priced in more ECB tightening following RBNZ’s hawkish move. 2-year Bund yields added 7bps while the 10-year yield rose 1bp. Italian bonds outperformed bunds.
  • The pound traded little changed against the US dollar and the euro. Currency traders are focusing on an upcoming Supreme Court ruling on whether the semi-autonomous Scottish government can call a second independence referendum without approval from the UK government

In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the curve continuing to flatten; long-end yields traded slightly richer on the day, front-end and belly cheaper. 10-year Treasury yields were cheaper by 1bp on the day at around 3.765% with bunds trading cheaper by 1bp in the sector; 30-year dipped below 3.81% for first time since Oct. 7, aided by prospect of a big index duration extension at next week’s month- end rebalancing. Bunds underperformed with long-end yields cheaper by over 5bp on the day following PMI numbers and German 30-year bond sale. US session features heavy economic data slate including PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment. The Gilt curve bull flattens with 2s10s narrowing 5.7bps. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany.

In commodities, Bloomberg reported that EU is considering a price cap on Russian oil of $65-70bbl; several EU diplomats reportedly said the proposed level was too high. Subsequently, the G7 is looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the $65-70/bbl level, via Reuters citing a European official. Crude was capped by the latest oil cap reports ahead of a potential EU Ambassadors discussion; benchmarks gave up their initial modest consolidation and now post downside of near 2.0%. WTI and Brent Jan’23 futures fell to session lows $78.94/bbl and $85.96/bbl vs $81.30/bbl and $88.80/bbl respectively prior to the below source reports. Spot gold fell roughly $4 to trade near $1,737/oz, base metals were pressured by China's latest crackdown measures..

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the global flash PMIs for November, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, preliminary durable goods orders for October, and new home sales for October. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC meeting earlier this month, and there’ll be remarks from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s de Cos and Centeno, and BoE chief economist Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Deere & Company.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,019.00

Brent Futures up 1.1% to $89.29/bbl

Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,737.60

U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% 107.05

 

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The ECB should move carefully as it starts shrinking its balance sheet, opting for a “passive” approach to so-called quantitative tightening, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos
  • The EU watered down its latest sanctions proposal for a price cap on Russia’s oil exports by delaying its full implementation and softening key shipping provisions
  • Europe PMI manufacturing and services unexpectedly rose in November, according to S&P Global. While it still firmly indicates a recession in the 19-nation region is underway, it offers some room to think the downturn may be shallower than previously predicted.
  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suffered a blow to his authority as he struggled to quell Conservative rebellions on multiple policy fronts, and downcast MPs threatened an exodus from Westminster ahead of the next election
  • The UK economy is in recession with the downturn expected to worsen heading into 2023, a key survey warned. S&P Global said its poll of purchasing managers suggests the economy is shrinking at a quarterly rate of 0.4%. Gloom was widespread in November, with services firms seeing new business fall at the fastest pace for almost two years
  • China’s purchases of machines to make computer chips fell 27% last month from a year earlier as the US imposed new, sweeping sanctions to try and derail the country’s chip ambitions

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St where sentiment was underpinned amid a global risk revival despite the lack of fresh catalysts but with upside capped amid Japan's holiday closure, tighter COVID rules in China and following the RBNZ's historic rate hike. ASX 200 was led by strength in the mining-related industries and with the energy sector front running the advances although the index is limited by underperformance in tech. NZX 50 was the laggard following the RBNZ’s 75bps rate hike and hawkish revisions to its OCR view which it now expects to peak at 5.50% (prev. 4.10% view), while the Committee had considered either a 75bps or 100bps move compared with analysts’ forecasts of either a 50bps or 75bps hike heading into the meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both higher, albeit with price action in the mainland choppy amid COVID concerns after several key cities tightened restrictions and testing requirements.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC adviser Wang Yiming sees China's 2023 GDP growth to likely be above 5% if the impact of COVID ends but noted growth will depend on the rollout of support measures and that support measures are needed to lift market confidence and consumption. Wang stated there is limited room for China to cut interest rates and slower Fed hikes in H1 2023 will provide China with more policy room.
  • Shenzhen will require 48-hour COVID tests to access public venues and Chengdu will conduct mass testing on November 23rd-27th, while Tianjin is to conduct complete city testing on November 24th-25th.
  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 75bps to 4.25%, as expected, while it stated that monetary conditions need to tighten further and that the Committee considered a 75bps or 100bps rate increase. RBNZ said consumer price inflation is too high and the Committee agreed the OCR needs to reach a higher level and sooner than previously indicated. Furthermore, the RBNZ noted near-term inflation expectations have risen and it raised its OCR projections with the OCR expected to peak at 5.5% by December 2023 vs prev. forecast of 4.10%.
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said during the press conference that there will be a shallow recession but noted economic activity remains high and spending is strong, while the RBNZ also noted that they are mature in the tightening cycle and closer to the end than the beginning but added that new shocks are arriving all the time.
  • Beijing is set to maintain COVID curbs until a turning point appears, according to reports via Bloomberg; requests residents do not unnecessarily leave the city.
  • China's cabinet will make adjustments to the RRR at an appropriate time, via Reuters citing State Media; will encourage commercial banks to issue loans to guarantee the delivery of homes.

UK Chancellor Hunt and BoE Governor Bailey are to reduce the maximum authorised size of the APF to GBP 871bln (prev. GBP 886bln), according to a BoE statement. Moody's said the UK government set out an ambitious consolidation plan but added that low confidence in the delivery hampers its credibility, according to Reuters. UK Supreme Court rules that Scotland cannot hold an independence referendum without approval from the British government. ECB's de Guindos says it is likely we will see negative Q4 growth rates within the EZ. Upcoming inflation projections will still be high, before starting to slow in Q1-2023; will show core also remains high.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Hunt and BoE Governor Bailey are to reduce the maximum authorised size of the APF to GBP 871bln (prev. GBP 886bln), according to a BoE statement.
  • Moody's said the UK government set out an ambitious consolidation plan but added that low confidence in the delivery hampers its credibility, according to Reuters.
  • UK Supreme Court rules that Scotland cannot hold an independence referendum without approval from the British government.
  • ECB's de Guindos says it is likely we will see negative Q4 growth rates within the EZ. Upcoming inflation projections will still be high, before starting to slow in Q1-2023; will show core also remains high.

Fixed Income

  • UK debt rampant ahead of DMO supply and comments from BoE's Pill, with Gilts posting a fresh 107.00+ post-mini budget collapse high
  • Bunds tag along, but lag BTPs, former flat between 140.59-139.77 parameters and latter nearer top of 119.42-118.31 range
  • US Treasuries trailing with no cash trade overnight and a hectic agenda looming on the eve of Thanksgiving, T-note subdued within a 112-21+/112-12 band

Commodities

  • Crude capped by oil cap reports ahead of a potential EU Ambassadors discussion; benchmarks gave up their initial modest consolidation and now post downside of near 2.0%.
  • WTI and Brent Jan’23 futures fell to session lows USD 78.94/bbl and USD 85.96/bbl vs circa. USD 81.30/bbl and USD 88.80/bbl respectively prior to the below source reports.
  • US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.8mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing -1.4mln, Gasoline -0.4mln (exp. +0.4mln), and Distillate +1.1mln (exp. -0.6mln).
  • OPEC+ delegates said Saudi's denial of a production increase at the December meeting reflected an unease with public discussion of the group's decision-making before an agreement with Russia was struck, according to WSJ.
  • US Treasury Department issued new guidance on the implementation of a price cap policy for Russian crude and said the price cap will be set after a technical exercise is conducted by the price cap coalition. A Treasury official also noted hopes that the EU price cap consultation is concluded relatively soon to allow the coalition to announce a price, while the official added there is no reason to expect Russia will retaliate to a price cap by cutting oil output and warned that violation of price cap could be subject to civil or criminal penalties, according to Reuters.
  • EU is considering a price cap on Russian oil of USD 65-70bbl, according to Bloomberg sources; several EU diplomats reportedly said the proposed level was too high. Subsequently, the G7 is looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the USD 65-70/bbl level, via Reuters citing a European official.
  • EU Ambassadors will revert to the oil price cap discussion this afternoon in an attempt to agree on legislation for it today, according to WSJ's Norman's understanding.
  • For metals, spot gold and silver are diverging modestly but remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark as sentiment struggles for clear direction alongside a gradual pick-up in the USD, with base metals pressured by China's latest crackdown measures.

FX

  • Kiwi flies as RBNZ lives up to hawkish hype, and more, NZD/USD eyes 0.6200 and AUD/NZD cross breaches 1.0800 as Aussie lags vs Buck around 0.6650 in wake of weaker PMIs and more Chinese COVID contagion
  • DXY clings to 107.00 ahead of packed US agenda on the eve of Thanksgiving, Euro faded from 1.0300+ against Greenback after post-EZ PMI pop, but may glean support from hefty option expiries
  • Sterling underpinned around 1.1900 after better than forecast UK flash PMIs and Supreme Court rules against Scotland holding Independence vote independently
  • Yen flags following flirt above 141.00 in Japanese holiday-impacted trade
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1281 vs exp. 7.1307 (prev. 7.1667)

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications 2.2%, prior 2.7%
  • 08:30: Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; - Less Transportation, est. 0%, prior -0.5%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -0.5%
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0%, prior -0.4%
  • 08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 222,000
    • Continuing Claims, est. 1.52m, prior 1.51m
  • 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 50.0, prior 50.4
    • Global US Services PMI, est. 48.0, prior 47.8
    • Global US Composite PMI, est. 48.0, prior 48.2
  • 10:00: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55.0, prior 54.7
    • U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 57.8, prior 57.8
    • U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 52.5, prior 52.7
    • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.1%, prior 5.1%
    • U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
  • 10:00: Oct. New Home Sales, est. 570,000, prior 603,000
    • New Home Sales MoM, est. -5.5%, prior -10.9%
  • 14:00: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a taxi on the way to the airport and to Frankfurt. Germany are playing their first World Cup game today so I'm not sure anyone will be at the event I'm presenting at! However at least i have an excuse if they are not. Shame I'm not off to Saudi Arabia as they have declared today a national holiday after the shock defeat of the team I have in the office sweepstake, namely Argentina!

Markets have been a bit more Saudi than Argentina over the last 24 hours, with bonds and equities moving higher despite the negative mood music that continues to overshadow markets. It perhaps hints at the technicals in the market that our equity strategists have repeatedly highlighted in recent weeks. See their updated thoughts here on how long the bear market rally might last.

In fact, not only did the Covid situation in China take a fresh turn for the worse yesterday, but we also had a fresh round of threats about a cut-off in the remaining flow of Russian gas to Europe. Both of these could have significant ramifications for the global economy more broadly, since China plays a critical role in supply chains that could have ramifications for global inflation in the event of further lockdowns, whilst Europe is already facing a critical energy situation this winter. Our German economics team did though acknowledge the improved outlook of late in a note here last night but they still believe a recession is baked in the sand with a notable real incomes squeeze. The flash PMIs today will be an important barometer in terms of how Europe is fairing.

When it comes to the latest developments in China, restrictions ramped up further yesterday against the backdrop of steadily rising case numbers. Shanghai said that new arrivals would not be allowed to enter public venues for the first five days, and would also be required to take three PCR tests within three days of their arrival. Meanwhile, Beijing said that residents would need a negative PCR test in the previous 48 hours to enter public venues and take buses, and Guangzhou said they would be extending Covid restrictions in parts of Haizhu district until the end of November 27. China-exposed stocks continued to struggle on the back of this. For instance, the NASDAQ’s Golden Dragon China index fell a further -1.43% yesterday, thus bringing its losses over the last 3 sessions to -7.77%, albeit +26.13% of the lows on October 24 after the reopening speculation started to build. That index contains US-listed stocks for whom most of their business is done in China, so offers a barometer of sentiment outside of trading hours in Asia. Overnight, Chinese equities themselves are trading in negative territory with the Shanghai Composite (-0.38%) and the CSI (-0.36%) edging lower as the daily Covid-19 infections continue to climb.

As we said yesterday it can be possible for China to tighten restrictions quite firmly in the near term but loosen them more sustainably by the spring. So its a difficult one to trade but I suspect what they do from spring onwards should be the most important.

Indeed, the negative developments in China failed to dampen risk appetite more broadly however, and the major equity indices climbed on both sides of the Atlantic. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 had advanced +1.36%, and Europe’s STOXX 600 even hit a 3-month high thanks to a +0.73% advance. To be fair in Europe, sentiment was boosted by some better-than-expected consumer confidence data, with the European Commission’s number for the Euro Area hitting a 5-month high of -23.9 (vs. -26.0 expected). Oil prices also benefited from the risk-on moves, with Brent crude (+1.03%) ending a run of 4 consecutive declines to close at $88.35/bbl. It dipped to $82 late on Monday as OPEC+ cuts were speculated upon before a subsequent Saudi denial.

Speaking of energy, the European Commission outlined their proposals for an emergency break on natural gas prices yesterday. But the cap was set at €275 per megawatt-hour (more than twice the current level), and would only come into force if futures on the front-month TTF exceed that for two weeks, and if TTF prices are also €58 higher than the LNG reference price for 10 consecutive trading days in the last two weeks. So even during the summer spike when gas prices peaked above the €275 level, the cap wouldn’t have come into force since prices didn’t remain there for two weeks. The measures still require approval from EU member states, and EU energy ministers are set to discuss the proposal in Brussels tomorrow.

Those proposals from the EU came as Gazprom threatened to cut gas flows to Europe via Ukraine yesterday, with Gazprom saying that Ukraine had taken gas that was meant for Moldova. In response, they warned they may limit volumes from November 28 based on the amount of gas not getting to Moldova. But the concern for the rest of Europe will be that previous threats from Russia to reduce volumes by a small amount end up resulting in much larger reductions, and this could be the start of a total shutdown that cuts off the last remaining pipeline to western Europe. In response, natural gas futures ended the day up by +7.21% at €124 per megawatt-hour, marking their third consecutive daily increase.

Adding to the downbeat backdrop, the US 2s10s curve pressed deeper into inversion territory for an 8th consecutive session yesterday, hitting a post-1981 low of -76.27bps. That trend wasn’t just confined to the US however, with the German 2s10s curve similarly hitting a post-2009 low of -13.8bps. That came as policymakers continued to strike a firm tone on the need to rein inflation back in, with Cleveland Fed President Mester saying that “restoring price stability remains the number one focus of the FOMC”. The November FOMC Minutes are due today. The big takeaway from the meeting was that the Fed was ready to break their streak of +75bp hikes by stepping down to a +50bp hike in December, a message well-received by the market in subsequent weeks, with +52.0bps now priced for the December meeting. While stale in that regard, the Chair also paired the stepdown to +50bp hikes with a higher terminal rate, so we’ll be looking for any indication that the rest of the Committee agrees, and if so, how much higher terminal may need to go to restrict financial conditions adequately.

Over in Europe, the debate also continued on whether the ECB should raise rates by 50bps or 75bps as well. Austria’s Holzmann echoed his hawkish remarks from the previous day, saying that he was in favour of a 75bps hike based on the current data. But Bundesbank President Nagel said “it would be too hasty to commit to how big the next rate hike could be”. Finally, Lithuania’s Simkus said that “50 basis points is a must”, and that since “we still see very strong inflation pressures and we need to dampen them as soon as possible to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. 75 is also possible.” By the close of trade, yields on 10yr Treasuries (-7.1bps), bunds (-1.3bps) and OATs (-1.5bps) had all moved lower.

Outside of China, Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning following the overnight rally on Wall Street. As I type, the Hang Seng (+0.42%) is trading higher, recovering from its earlier losses with the KOSPI (+0.46%) also in the green. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday.US stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.07%) are little changed.

A big surprise came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as the central bank delivered a 75bps hike, its biggest rate hike on record as it struggles to contain rising inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.5% to 4.25% while signalling further tightening ahead. At the same time, it also warned that economic growth will slow in the near-term due to the shock of rising interest rates and elevated inflation. Shortly after the decision, yields on the policy-sensitive 2yr bond moved sharply higher (+26 bps), trading at 4.58% with the 10yr yields briefing touching 4.27% before retracing back to 4.20% as we go to print.

Separately we have data from Australia showing that the preliminary PMI indices all weakened in November. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.5 from the prior month’s level of 52.7 but more importantly the services sector PMI contracted further to a weak looking 47.2 following a level of 49.3 in October.

There wasn’t much data of note yesterday, although the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for November came in at -9 (vs. –8 expected). Otherwise, the OECD released their latest economic outlook, projecting global growth of just +2.2% in 2023 and +2.7% in 2024. If that +2.2% number is realised, that would make 2023 the third-worst year of the 21st century so far for global growth, behind only 2020 with the pandemic and 2009 with the GFC.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the global flash PMIs for November, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, preliminary durable goods orders for October, and new home sales for October. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC meeting earlier this month, and there’ll be remarks from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s de Cos and Centeno, and BoE chief economist Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Deere & Company.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/23/2022 - 08:04

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Futures Jump Above Key CTA Trigger Level Ahead Of PPI Data

Futures Jump Above Key CTA Trigger Level Ahead Of PPI Data

After sliding 8 of the previous 9 days, US stock futures extended yesterday’s…

Published

on

Futures Jump Above Key CTA Trigger Level Ahead Of PPI Data

After sliding 8 of the previous 9 days, US stock futures extended yesterday’s gains as investors awaited today's PPI data (ahead of next week's critical CPI print) and the Fed's final meeting for 2022 next week. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.6% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%; more importantly spoos were back above the critical and closely watched medium-term CTA trigger of 3976. Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year rate just below 3.5%. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped.

And maybe even notable is that in its latest market commentary, Goldman's trading desk warned that "L/Os I speak with telling me they are bumping up against their cash ceilings." Are we about to see a flood of year-end buying as there is just too much cash on the sidelines as funds continue to dump assets. Underlying indexes rallied on Thursday after almost 9 straight days of losses, and are still on track to post a weekly decline amid fears of a hawkish-for-longer central bank and the risk of a recession in 2023.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, Activision Blizzard fell after the US Federal Trade Commission sought to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of the videogame publisher, saying the deal would harm competition. DocuSign Inc. jumped after the e-signature company reported third-quarter billings that were stronger than expected. Analysts noted that results were boosted by early renewals. Piper Sandler upgraded to neutral from underweight. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Coinbase drops 2.8% in US premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded its rating on the cryptocurrency exchange to underperform from neutral. Analysts say that consensus expectations are “too optimistic” for the company’s 2023 revenue.
  • Netflix rises 2.3% after the streaming company is upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo, with analysts seeing a path of positive catalysts in 2023 driven by lower churn and stable subscribers. Separately, Cowen names Netflix as its top large- cap stock pick for 2023.
  • Lululemon slides 6.8% in light volumes as lower-than-expected profitability raised concerns about a pileup of inventory, while the the yogawear maker’s full-year sales forecast disappointed Wall Street.
  • Pharvaris drops 14%, erasing some of yesterday’s gains, when the stock more than quadrupled in price. The surge followed the firm’s announcement that the RAPIDe-1 Phase 2 clinical study of PHVS416, an oral on-demand treatment for angioedema attacks, met primary endpoint and all secondary endpoints.
  • Take-Two Interactive has “bright” long-term prospects through owning iconic IPs such as Grand Theft Auto and a track record of successful releases, though Citi starts coverage on the video game developer on the sidelines on the expectation of consensus FY24 estimates falling.
  • Rally in Chinese stocks listed in the US continued, with major internet stocks making fresh gains in premarket trading on Friday as steps to relax pandemic curbs gain momentum.
  • Apple analysts are trimming their sales estimates for the iPhone maker’s fiscal first quarter as disruptions at its factories in China are expected to hit sales. With delivery times for iPhone recovering over the past week, analysts note that demand for the top-end smartphone models is still holding up and expect the backlog to benefit subsequent quarters. Shares gained about 1%.
  • Broadcom shares are up 4% after the semiconductor device company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that was ahead of consensus. Analysts were positive about the company’s consistent execution amid a tough macro environment.
  • Carvana Co. slumps 6% after Needham cut its recommendation on the stock to hold from buy saying “confidence is low on the path forward.” The latest downgrade follows similar moves from at least five other brokerages in recent months, including Wedbush, William Blair and Cowen.
  • Chewy’s fiscal 3Q results look strong, though its conservative guidance may disappoint some investors, analysts say. Chewy shares fell 1.1%.
  • Erasca is 2.9% lower after its stock offering priced via JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

Focus this morning will be on US producer prices data amid optimism that inflation peaked earlier this year. The Fed has signaled it’s ready to start slowing the pace of rate hikes at its meeting next week, and investors will look for clues about its policy outlook for next year. CMC Markets market analyst Michael Hewson said “the big question” from hereon is whether the trend of cooling prices “can be maintained against a US central bank that doesn’t want to be seen as going soft on inflation, and services and wages data that points to a US economy that is slightly more resilient than originally thought.”

“Traders will be closely watching today’s PPI data, with S&P 500 options markets pricing the largest potential move around any PPI release this year,” said Hugo Bernaldo, senior cross-asset trader at Optiver. “Investors will also be looking for clues in today’s data of how Tuesday’s more important CPI figures will come in.”

A Bloomberg News survey showed fund managers are optimistic about a stock recovery next year, expecting low double-digit gains, although they cite a strong recession and stubborn inflation as the biggest risks. Top market strategists are more cautious, saying equities are likely in for a rough ride in the first half of the year as they price in a possible economic contraction. Bank of America Corp. strategists also warned that investors betting on a rally after the Fed’s last rate hike could be in for disappointment due to the impact of higher inflation. Their note, citing EPFR Global data, showed outflows of $5.7 billion from global equity funds in the week through Dec. 7.

Fed officials are leery of fanning stock rallies that ease financial conditions too much and thwart their inflation-fighting mission. Strategists have lined up to warn investors against piling back into risk on hopes the Fed is getting close to pivoting to easier policy. “Central banks will rather be on the safe side when it comes to future inflation after having underestimated inflationary pressures last year,” Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd., wrote in a note to clients, adding that a pause in rate hikes is some way off.

European stocks also rose: travel, media and construction are the strongest-performing equity sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.2%. FTSE MIB is flat but underperforms peers. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • BICO Group shares jump as much as 75% after the Swedish biotech issued shares to Germany’s Sartorius and agreed on a strategic collaboration with the lab-equipment group.
  • Man Group shares rose as much as 6.5% after the UK investment group announced a new share buyback program of up to $125m.
  • ABN Amro shares rise as much as 4.2% after it was upgraded to outperform at Credit Suisse
  • Credit Suisse shares rise 3.7% after the troubled lender completed its 4 billion-franc capital increase, giving the bank the funds needed to go ahead with its restructuring.
  • Pendragon shares drop as much as 28% after the auto dealer says Hedin Group no longer intends to make a bid for the company due to challenging market conditions and the uncertain economic outlook.
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec shares drop as much as 11%, the most intraday since October 2019, after the medical optical manufacturer said its first quarter 2022/23 Ebit margin is expected to fall significantly year-on-year amid higher costs and China’s Covid lockdowns.
  • Ipsen falls as much as 7.0%, the most since Oct. 27, after a phase III trial evaluating its Cabometyx in combination with another drug failed to meet its primary endpoint of overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer.
  • Worldline falls as much as 6.0% after it was cut to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan, with the broker saying a key pillar of its bullish view on the stock is deteriorating.
  • TotalEnergies shares retreated as much as 2.0% after the French energy group said it would take a $3.7 billion impairment hit in its fourth-quarter results following a decision to no longer consolidate its 19.4% stake in Russia’s Novatek.

Asian equities also gained Friday as most regional markets followed US shares higher, while reopening moves in China kept overall sentiment upbeat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, heading for a sixth-straight week of gains, lifted by technology shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed more than 2%, leading gains in the region, while gauges in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 1%. Shares of Chinese developers led the advance in Hong Kong as expectations grew for more policy support. Macau casino shares also rallied as the city followed the mainland to relax some of its Covid restrictions.  Read: China Stocks Cap Another Week of Hefty Gains on Reopening Moves

“A significant easing of Covid measures could happen in the second half of the year after gradual, piecemeal measures in the first quarter,” said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING Groep NV. Still, “there are likely downside risks associated with the higher number of Covid cases.”  The Asian stock benchmark was on track for its longest weekly run of gains in two years, amid expectations for China’s reopening and the Federal Reserve’s pivot from its aggressive tightening. The gauge has risen more than 18% from its October low, on the cusp of entering a technical bull market. Traders are focusing on US producer prices data due later in the day, which may offer cues on the Fed’s tightening path

Japanese equities climbed, tracking a rebound in the S&P 500 Index, as investors awaited US inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s tightening path.  The Topix rose 1% to 1,961.56 as of the 3 p.m. market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.2% to 27,901.01. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Asian gaming stocks rose as the US Federal Trade Commission seeks to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard.  Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 1,633 rose and 420 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “The immediate focus of market participants is on PPI, CPI and the FOMC,” said Shogo Maekawa, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Australian stocks gained as miners advance, tracking Asian peers. Australia’s key equity benchmark index rose 0.5%, boosted by miners and consumer staples shares, as regional stocks followed Wall Street higher. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 7,213.20 on Friday but declined 1.2% for the week In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,596.03.

Indian stocks were an outlier on Friday, among the biggest decliners in Asia on Friday,  with key gauges falling more than 1% as as tech shares dropped and investors booked some profits ahead of the year-end with economic growth expected to be under pressure. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.6% to 62,181.67 as of 3:45 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped by a similar magnitude. Both gauges fell 1.1% for the week, their biggest declines since late September. Tech shares contributed the most to Friday’s falls after management of HCL Technologies said fiscal 2023’s revenue growth will be at the lower end of the 13.5% to 14.5% band, triggering concerns about the industry’s prospects next year. Infosys was the biggest drag on the Sensex, with the company dropping 3.1%.

In FX, the dollar trims some of its earlier losses, though still lower on the day; CHF and JPY outperform in G-10 FX. The Bloomberg dollar index fell as much as 0.3% before paring much of that drop; it’s closed lower for the past two sessions.

  • The euro was little changed at 1.056 while the pound gained 0.2%, leaving it unchanged on the week at about $1.226
  • USD/JPY fell 0.5% to around 136; spot dollar was sold for the daily Tokyo fixing but Japanese banks continued after the event and in large amounts, according to Asia-based FX traders
  • Asian currencies “are buoyed on the back of overall risk on, a softer USD and China cheer” on re-opening hopes, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics & strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “This is at least partly owed to the fact that markets as of now are ignoring the ‘for longer’ threat embedded in the Fed’s rate hike dial-back,” he said

In rates, Treasuries outperform bunds and gilts at the 10-year mark. Treasury 10-year little changed around 3.475% with front-end richer and long-end cheaper; bunds lag by additional 5bp on the 10-year sector vs Treasuries, gilts by 3bp. The TSY curve was near steepest levels of the day heading into early US session with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 3bp and almost 4bp as long-end underperforms. Bigger losses across long-end of the German curve weigh on Treasuries, while US front-end recovered some of Thursday’s losses during Asia session. European bonds fell, led by Italy; 10-year German yield heads 4 basis points higher to 1.86%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 4.3bps to 191.5bps.

In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.4% to near $72.49. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade near $1,795/oz. Most base metals trade in the green.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, although data releases include the US PPI reading for November, as well as the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 3,989.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 436.37
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 159.01
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 518.83
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,901.01
  • Topix up 1.0% to 1,961.56
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 19,900.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,206.95
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 62,154.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,213.18
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,389.04
  • German 10Y yield up 2.1% to 1.86%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0550
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $76.80/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,791.17
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 104.83

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The dollar is seen staying in defensive mode versus its major peers next year, according to analysts. Options traders remain bullish on its prospects yet topside bets continue to lose traction.
  • Three-month Euribor extends its advance as traders wager the European Central Bank will raise interest rates for a fourth successive meeting to a 13-year high at 2% next week.
  • The Bank of England said the expectations that British consumers have about where inflation is headed drifted further above its 2% target, and more people were dissatisfied with the way the central bank is doing its job.
  • The Riksbank may be near a peak level for borrowing costs after a string of key rate hikes, Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson said.
  • China faces a daunting task after abruptly giving up on Covid Zero, with infections set to surge and deaths predicted to top 2 million.
  • China will sell 750 billion yuan ($108 billion) worth of special sovereign bonds next Monday to “support economic and social” development, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement late on Friday.

A more detailed summary of markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the major indices found some relief during a quiet session ahead of next week's key risk events. ASX 200 was marginally positive with the index led higher by strength in the mining sector, but with gains capped by weakness in defensives and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 moved closer to the 28,000 level amid the momentum from the US and after PM Kishida denied they were planning to increase the income tax for defence spending, although a separate report noted that Japan is considering raising corporate tax instead to fund the defence spending. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive in which the Hong Kong benchmark whipsawed and the mainland was lacklustre as participants digested the latest inflation data which showed a slowing pace of CPI growth and slightly narrower-than-expected fall in producer prices, while property names were underpinned on reports that China is mulling further property market easing measures at next week's economic meeting.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Premier Li said inflation remains high in some countries and that the world economy faces grim challenges with the risk of a global recession increasing. Li also noted that the domestic economy is currently in a stable state after reversing the Q3 economic decline and said China is to further smooth logistics, while he added that China cannot stop opening up and will continue at a high level.
  • Canadian police suspended a contract with a China-linked firm amid concerns regarding potential Chinese access to Canadian police communications, according to SCMP.
  • Japan is considering raising corporate taxes to fund defence spending, according to Yomiuri.
  • Iron Ore Climbs to Four-Month High on Optimism Over China Policy
  • Xi Visit to Saudi Arabia Brings Pledge of More Oil Trade
  • SoftBank Group Cuts SenseTime Stake to 17.97% From 18.02%

Equities in Europe trade with no firm direction in what has been a quiet morning session thus far in holiday-thinned volumes, with little follow-through experienced from the gains in APAC. In Europe, sectors are mostly firmer with no overall bias and again with a narrow market breadth. Stateside, action is in-fitting with European peers as macro catalysts are light ahead of next week's blockbuster docket. China November vehicle sales fell 7.9% Y/YY vs prev. increase of 6.9% in October, according to the industry association, while CAAM suggests an extension of purchase tax cut on combustion engine vehicles to 2023. CAAM forecasts China 2023 vehicles sales +3% YY, large scale COVID infections will have an adverse influence in 2023. Tesla (TSLA) is to suspend Model Y production at Shanghai Plant between December 25th and January 1st; to reduce output in December by around 30% from November for Model Y, according to an internal memo cited by Reuters

Top European News

  • UK Treasury publishes the 'Edinburgh reforms': to reform short selling regulation. To consult on removing rules for capital deduction at banks. To review senior manager certification rules. Click here for more detail.
  • BoE/ Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey - November 2022: median public inflation expectation for the coming year at 4.8% in Nov (prev. 4.9% in Aug); 1-2yr inflation 3.4% (prev. 3.2%), 5yr 3.3% (prev. 3.1%).
  • UK Sets Out Post-Brexit Finance Plan to Spur City of London
  • Two More ECB Rate Hikes Seen Before QT Goes Live Early Next Year
  • Arnault’s Son Antoine Takes Wider Role at LVMH Luxury Empire

FX

  • DXY managed to derive some support after losing 104.50 in early trade, currently the index is lower but in proximity to the 104.86 peak.
  • Peers are generally fairly contained with modest outperformance in safe-haven JPY and CHF as US yields slip slightly.
  • Petro-FX continues to lag as the broader complex is once again consolidating with minor gains in the context of recent price action.
  • NOK knocked on soft CPI ahead of the Norges Bank while NZD was underpinned overnight despite mixed domestic data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9588 vs exp. 6.9604 (prev. 6.9606)

Fixed Income

  • EGBs and USTs continue to diverge, though overall action has been limited given a lack of drivers and thin volumes.
  • EZ periphery is cognisant of the looming TLTRO.III repayment publication, though the impact may not be felt until the January window.
  • Stateside, yields are modestly softer across the curve, with action slightly more evident at the short-end.

Commodities

  • WTI Jan and Brent Feb remain firmer intraday but in the grander scheme are consolidating with modest gains, the former around USD 72.50/bbl (vs low 71.32/bbl), and the latter just above the USD 77/bbl mark (vs low 75.95/bbl).
  • Kuwait set January KEC crude OSP for Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 2.10/bbl, according to Reuters.
  • Russia is to decide on whether to increase oil production after Q1 following the introduction of the price cap, via Tass citing an official.
  • China's Securities Regulatory Commission is to allow overseas investors in DCE soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options from December 26th.
  • Canada to review regulatory framework for critical mineral mines and other cleans growth projects to make them faster and more predictable; seeking regulatory harmonization opportunities with the US in a new critical mineral strategy.
  • Spot gold remains capped by USD 1800/oz while base metals are off best levels after deriving modest support overnight.

Geopolitics

  • US is preparing to send a USD 275mln military aid package to Ukraine, according to AJA Breaking.
  • Lithuanian PM Simonyte says Russian President Putin wants a break in the Ukrainian invasion, in order to regroup.
  • US is to sanction entities from China and Russia related to human rights abuses, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 7.2%, prior 8.0%
    • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 5.4%
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%; YoY, est. 5.9%, prior 6.7%
  • 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 57.0, prior 56.8
    • U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 54.5, prior 55.6
    • U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 58.8, prior 58.8
    • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.9%, prior 4.9%
    • U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
  • 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 12:00: 3Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior -$6.1t

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk appetite returned to markets over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 snapping a run of 5 consecutive losses to advance +0.75%, whilst bond yields moved higher as well. That came in spite of fresh jitters about the state of the US economy, with the latest data on continuing jobless claims showing a further increase to 1.671m in the week ending November 26 (vs. 1.618m expected). That’s their highest level since early February, and follows a noticeable increase over recent weeks that’s seen them rise by nearly a quarter since mid-September.

With growing concern about a potential recession, attention today will turn to another couple of data points that may give a steer on how aggressively the Fed will lift rates over the coming months. The first is the US PPI inflation reading for November at 13:30 London time. Usually the producer price release gets less market attention compared to consumer prices, but in part that’s because the CPI number is normally out first. This month however, PPI is out first, so should offer a signal on inflation in November ahead of the all-important CPI release on Tuesday. Our economists forecast that both headline and core PPI will come in at +0.2% on a monthly basis, in line with consensus.

The second data point will be the preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for December. That fell back in November after having risen for the 4 previous months, so the question will be whether that was just a blip or the start of a more pronounced downturn. We’ll also get their measure of longer-term inflation expectations that is closely watched. That’s begun to tick back up over the last couple of months, so any further rises would be concerning from the Fed’s point of view, who thus far have been reassured by the fact that longer-term expectations have remained anchored.

Ahead of those releases, we got some fresh signs of elevated US inflation pressures from the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker, with the main measure of median hourly wage growth remaining unchanged at 6.4% in November. That’s a bit beneath the peak of 6.7% between June and August, but isn’t suggesting a meaningful deceleration in wage inflation as we move deeper into Q4, and this data is normally highly correlated with the Employment Cost Index.

With upcoming data providing the main focus today, markets remained in something of a holding pattern as investors looked forward to the packed calendar of events next week, including the Fed and ECB decisions. For instance, expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate continued to hover around the 5% mark, where they’ve been for nearly a couple of months now. Sovereign bond yields did see a noticeable bounceback yesterday, but that was coming off from their lowest levels in a couple of months, with 10yr Treasury yields up +6.5bps on the day to 3.48%. The 2s10s curve also moved to become slightly less inverted with a +1.3bps move to -83.0bps, but again that was coming off a multi-decade low for the curve the previous day.

Elsewhere yesterday, the downward trajectory in oil prices continued, with Brent crude falling a further -1.32% to $76.15/bbl. That left it at its lowest levels of the year so far, despite a brief surge in prices intraday after the Keystone oil pipeline was shut following a leak. WTI similarly pared back its brief gains to close -0.76% lower at $71.46/bbl. These lower prices are flowing through to the real economy as well, with US gasoline prices now down by just over a third from their peak in mid-June, currently at $3.329/gallon. Furthermore, the energy price declines were seen in European natural gas futures as well, which fell -6.94% on the day to €139 per megawatt-hour.

For US equities, there was a decent bounceback yesterday, with the S&P 500 up +0.75% as technology stocks led the advance. For instance, the NASDAQ was up a larger +1.13%, and the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks rose +2.51%. Over in Europe, the tone was much more subdued for equities, with the STOXX 600 (-0.17%) losing ground for a 5th consecutive day. However, sovereign bonds traded more in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.7bps), OATs (+4.5bps) and BTPs (+8.6bps) all moving higher on the day.

Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have mostly followed the US higher, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.27%), the Hang Seng (+1.64%), the CSI 300 (+0.24%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) and the Kospi (+0.47%). The moves came as Chinese inflation remained subdued in November, with year-on-year CPI down to +1.6% as expected, down from +2.1% in October, which was seen as offering policymakers more space to stimulate the economy if required. That continued to be driven by food prices, which were up +3.7%, compared to non-food prices which only rose +1.1%. Elsewhere, the PPI reading was slightly higher than expected, but was still at a deflationary -1.3% over the last year (vs. -1.5% expected).

To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, although data releases include the US PPI reading for November, as well as the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/09/2022 - 08:11

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels

  – by New Deal democratConsumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The…

Published

on

 

 - by New Deal democrat

Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The news was mainly good, although not good enough to likely dissuade the Fed from its current course of interest rate hikes.


This is one of those cases where YoY measures give a false picture in comparison with seasonally adjusted monthly data.

YoY producer price growth decelerated, but is still very high: final demand prices increased 7.4%, “core” final demand less food and energy increased 8.1%, and commodity prices are up 8.2%:



That’s down from their respective peaks, but still very high compared with the last 40 years pre-pandemic.

But now let’s look at the seasonally adjusted monthly changes:



Since June there’s been a marked deceleration in final demand prices, and an outright decline in commodity prices.

So let’s norm June to 100, and see what we get:



Final demand prices are only up 0.4% in 5 months; less food and energy up 1.4%; and commodities are down -6.1%. Onan annualized basis, the first measure is trending at 1.0% rate, while the “core” second measure is slightly problematic, increasing at a 3.4% annualized rate.

A similar pattern appears when we break final demand down into goods vs. services. While YoY goods prices are up 9.6% and services prices up 5.9%:




Final good services prices are up 1.5% in the past 5 months, while final demand goods prices are actually down -1.3%:



In short, most of the upstream inflation problem in producer prices has been abating rapidly. Only “core” services prices remain elevated above levels tolerated without alarm before the pandemic.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Remote work triggers move to DAOs in the post-pandemic world: Survey

A survey from a sample of the general U.S. public suggests that millennials are more likely to join a DAO than any other age group.

Published

on

A survey from a sample of the general U.S. public suggests that millennials are more likely to join a DAO than any other age group.

A survey sample of working Americans suggests that millennial and Generation Z workers are far more in favor of joining decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and working remotely in the post-Covid-19 world.

Over 1,100 Americans took part in a survey conducted by MetisDAO Foundation which explores trends in remote working preferences and the emergence of DAOs in recent years. A key consideration is the effect that Covid-19 has had on worker sentiment and the growth of DAOs in corporate governance.

Citing a research report on DAOs published by the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, the results of the survey highlight how DAOs saw their treasuries swell from $400 million to $16 billion in 2021.

This coincided with growing participant figures, up from 13,000 to 1.6 million people during the same period. Drawing comparisons to some of the largest multinational corporations, global DAO workforce numbers are equal to one Amazon, 18 Facebooks, seven Microsofts or 11 Google.

Related: Toss in your job and make $300K working for a DAO? Here’s how

The impact of Covid-19 is a primary driver of Metis’ report investigating workers readiness for decentralized employment opportunities. The unexpected, rapid shift to remote working conditions of the pandemic has seemingly driven knowledge and understanding of DAOs and decentralized autonomous companies (DAC), particularly among millennial and generation Z workers.

A major takeaway from the results is that nearly 75% of respondents believe that companies will need to adapt how they run their businesses to offer more remote work options. Millennials working in hybrid or remote settings offered the most positive responses on how DACs offer workers opportunities to help govern a company.

47% of the respondents also indicated that they would be open to working for a DAO or DAC as a contracted employee. The survey also indicates that millennial workers are more willing to work for a DAO or DAC than any other age group.

Meanwhile, Gen Z respondents most accurately defined a DAO compared to respondents from other age groups and a majority of Gen Z participants also defined DAOs as ‘revolutionary movement changing the future of work’.

MetisDAO concludes by highlighting the influence of prolonged remote working conditions driving the desire for more decentralized and autonomous work environments.

“The survey results show that a majority of respondents seek all of the things that DACs provide; remote work opportunities, independence from management, and influence over the organizations they work in.”

MetisDAO’s survey came from a sample of 1112 respondents through SurveyMonkey in November 2022. The DAO forms part of Metis, an Ethereum layer-2 rollup solution.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending