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Futures Spooked By Hottest Chinese Factory Inflation Since 2018

Futures Spooked By Hottest Chinese Factory Inflation Since 2018

US equity future struggled for direction after hitting an all time high of 4,102 as investors assessed economic growth prospects against renewed inflation concerns after Beijing.

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Futures Spooked By Hottest Chinese Factory Inflation Since 2018

US equity future struggled for direction after hitting an all time high of 4,102 as investors assessed economic growth prospects against renewed inflation concerns after Beijing reported that in March China experienced the fastest factory inflation since 2018, which weighed on Asian stocks, and dragged contracts on the duration-heavy Nasdaq 100 lower, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterating late on Thursday that inflation was not a worry. Emini futures were steady after the S&P 500 rose 0.42% to a record high on Thursday when the Nasdaq Composite added 1.03%. Treasury yields rose, as did the dollar, while oil was flat and the VIX dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2020 at 16.55.

"U.S. equities are holding on to recent highs with U.S. interest rates remaining stable and the economic outlook improving," Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank A/S, said in a client note. "We do not expect wild things in today’s trading session as everyone is waiting for the first-quarter earnings season to start next week."

The big overnight event was the latest Chinese CPI and PPI prints, which both came in hot for March, as China's CPI inflation picked up to +0.4% yoy in March after two months of deflation, primarily on higher fuel costs; in month-on-month terms, headline CPI prices increased 3.0%.In year-on-year terms, food inflation moderated to -0.7% yoy in March from -0.2% yoy in February, primarily on lower inflation in vegetable and pork prices. Deflation in pork prices widened to -18.4% yoy in March from -14.9% yoy in February primarily on a sequential decline, and inflation in fresh vegetables moderated to +0.2% yoy in March from +3.3% yoy in February. In contrast, non-food CPI inflation picked up to +0.7% yoy in March from -0.2% yoy in February, primarily on a significant rebound in fuel costs. Fuel costs increased notably by 11.5% yoy in March, from -5.2% yoy in February. Core CPI inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) increased mildly as well to +0.3% yoy in March from 0% yoy in February.

But most of the attention was on China's PPI inflation, which picked up notably to 4.4% yoy in March from +1.7% yoy in February, the highest since July 2018. PPI inflation in producer goods increased to 5.8% yoy in March from 2.3% yoy in February, while PPI inflation in consumer goods, which matters more for CPI inflation, inched up to +0.1% yoy in March from several months of deflation. Among major sectors, inflation in the petroleum industry picked up the most, followed by the metal sectors and chemistry sector. Goldman expects PPI inflation to continue to accelerate with limited spillover to CPI.

Elsewhere, Powell signaled at an IMF event that the central bank was nowhere near reducing support for the U.S. economy, saying that while economic reopening could result in higher prices temporarily, it will not constitute inflation. Deutsche Bank analysts said the comments “offered fresh reassurance to investors who’d begun to price in earlier rate increases on the back of some very strong economic data in recent weeks”.

Looking at global markets, MSCI’s broadest gauge of world stocks set a record high in Asian trading, though it was down 0.1% at 0755 GMT. The index has gained more than 1.5% this week.

“As long as monetary stimulus is easy, as long as fiscal policy is easy, any hiccups in stocks are probably only going to find buyers,” said Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM.

Europe's Stoxx 600 index edged higher, led by consumer-focused firms and construction and on course for a sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since November 2019 even though Germany and France, the euro area’s two largest economies, both saw unexpected declines in industrial production in February, suggesting that coronavirus restrictions are increasingly harming parts of the economy that have proved resilient so far. Germany has doubled its pace of Covid-19 vaccinations after a sluggish start, while Italy is set to ease lockdown curbs. Britain’s FTSE 100 hit its highest in more than a year, bringing gains for the week to nearly 3%, helped by the country’s speedy vaccine rollout. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Fuchs Petrolub shares jump as much as 5.7% after Baader Helvea upgraded the company to add, citing higher-than-anticipated demand for lubricants used in the automotive industry.
  • Puma shares surge as much as 4.6% to a record high, as UBS increased the price target on the sportswear brand, predicting a “strong start to the year” despite U.S. port congestions and recent issues in China.
  • Lonza shares rise as much as 3.1% as Tages- Anzeiger reported Swiss Interior Minister Alain Berset and company President Albert Baehny had a telephone conversation. Both parties are interested in intensifying cooperation, newspaper cites government spokesman Peter Lauener as saying.
  • JD Sports shares gain as much as 3.2% after Berenberg raised its price target to a joint Street-high, saying the impact of “sneakerheads” should not be underestimated. Surprisingly, while it has been perceived as a lockdown winner, JD Sports has not traded like one -- or as a vaccine beneficiary, the broker said in note.
  • TUI shares drop as much as 7.9% after the company kicked off a EU350m sale of senior unsecured convertible bonds. Jefferies said the move is “a very short-term and insufficient liquidity fix.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as benchmark gauges in China led declines, with investors spooked by the fastest Chinese inflation prints. Japan’s Topix gained 0.6% and Australian stocks hovered near a 13-month high, with technology stocks providing the biggest boost after the Federal Reserve played down inflationary risks. South Korea’s Kospi touched the highest intraday level since mid-February.

Chinese shares, however, slid 1.5%, as robust domestic inflation data raised worries over policy tightening. Factory gate prices rose at their fastest annual pace since July 2018 in March. The Chinext index of Chinese small caps and the CSI 300 index each retreated more than 1%. SF Holding was the biggest decliner on the CSI 300 after reporting downbeat earnings. China Great Wall Technology and Shenzhen Inovance Technology also slumped. Tokyo’s Mothers index for startups outperformed, climbing more than 1%. Sector-wise for the region, information-technology firms contributed the most to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s slide, while telecommunications companies rose, providing support.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index dipped 0.05% to close at 6,995.20, cooling off after five straight days of gains that capped its longest winning streak since Dec. 9. The benchmark added 2.4% over the holiday-shortened week, its best since Feb. 5. Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. was the worst performer on Friday, falling the most since March 24. Gold miners were among the top performers as the metal headed for the first weekly advance in three. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 12,574.35

Treasuries were lower, unwinding Thursday’s gains which were capped by NY Fed's Lori Logan hinting the Fed could purchase more 20Y TSYs, as next several trading days bring key economic data and auction cycle beginning Monday. 10-year Treasury yields rebounded from Thursday’s two-week trough near 1.6%, to print at 1.6674% following the hot Chinese inflation data. As Bloomberg reports, most of the declines occurred during London session, with swap spreads widening into the move higher in yields; earlier, stronger-than-forecast Chinese PPI numbers were digested; selling is broadly consistent with profit-taking ahead of next week’s CPI report and front-loaded Treasury auction cycle starting with 3- and 10-year notes Monday and including 30-year bond Tuesday. 10Y yields had surged to the highest since Jan 2020 at 1.776% at the end of March as a string of strong U.S. economic data stoked fears of a spike in inflation that could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than policymakers had so far signalled.

Bond yields across the euro region also rose. Italy’s 10-year yield jumped the most since February after Bloomberg reported Prime Minister Mario Draghi is bringing forward plans for as much as 40 billion euros ($48 billion) in new borrowing. German 10-year bond yields rose 2 basis points, moving away from the previous session’s 10-day lows.

In FX, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.2% but was set for its worst week of the year, weighed down by lower Treasury yields. The euro dipped 0.2% after hitting two-week highs in the previous session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced after China said March PPI climbed the most since July 2018; the greenback gained versus all of its Group-of-10 peers, with commodity currencies such as the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar leading losses. The euro fell below $1.19 after reaching a more than a two-week high Thursday. Australia’s dollar slid by as much as 0.9% against the greenback, driven in part by iron ore which fell for the first day in the last seven.

In commodities, oil prices edged down as investors weighed rising supplies from major producers and the impact on fuel demand from the COVID-19 pandemic. WTI fell 0.35% to $59.38 a barrel, while Brent lost 0.5% to $62.87 a barrel. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,747 an ounce after jumping to a more than one-month peak of $1,758 on Thursday.

Looking at the day ahead now, we’ll get the PPI reading for March. In addition, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,091.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 437.30
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 206.69
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 688.48
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 29,768.06
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,959.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 28,698.80
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,450.68
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 49,518.79
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,995.17
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 3,131.88
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $62.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,746.45
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 92.28
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to -0.313%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1891

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.K. said it will decide by early next month whether Britons can resume taking international holidays on May 17, while implementing coronavirus testing rules that airlines criticized as too costly
  • U.K. house prices rose at the strongest pace in six months as buyers eyed a path out of lockdown and the government extended a temporary tax break on purchases, mortgage lender Halifax said
  • Italy is set to ease lockdown restrictions, lifting some curbs that have been weighing on the economy in the region surrounding Milan and across the country as the latest virus resurgence slows, officials said
  • Germany and France both saw unexpected declines in industrial production in February, suggesting that coronavirus restrictions are increasingly harming parts of the economy that have proved resilient so far
  • France’s budget deficit won’t fall below 3% of gross domestic product until 2027, the finance ministry said. While progress could have been faster, targeting a drop below 3% in 2025, that would have involved major spending cuts and tax increases, an official at the ministry said
  • Italy is bringing forward plans for as much as 40 billion euros in new borrowing as the cost of keeping the economy afloat drains the state’s coffers and street protests heap pressure on the government

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac markets end the week with a cautious tone as regional bourses failed to sustain the early momentum from the tech-led gains in the US where sentiment was underpinned as yields eased and Fed Chair Powell stuck to the dovish script. US equity futures thereafter pulled back from session highs after the E-mini S&P briefly breached the 4,100 level for the first time. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was lacklustre with strength in tech, telecoms and gold miners offset by a subdued broader market amid concerns that the vaccination programme could be hindered after Australia recommended to halt the use of the AstraZeneca (AZN LN) vaccine for people under the age of 50 which also placed doubts on local partner CSL that has a contract to produce 50mln doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was positive after an attempt to reclaim the 30k level although has partially retraced the advances with the government and expert panel set to discuss COVID-19 measures for Tokyo today. There were also mixed earnings from retailers as Seven & I posted a decline in its full year net and although Fast Retailing reported improved results, its shares were subdued with the Co. said to be facing pressure from the US to take a clear stand against the human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) weakened amid continued US-China tensions after the US Commerce Department added 7 Chinese supercomputing bodies onto its entity list for alleged support to the Chinese military and with the US Senate’s legislation draft stating that the US must encourage allies to do more in balancing and checking China’s aggressive behaviour, while the latest Chinese inflation data was mixed as CPI and PPI topped estimates Y/Y with factory gate prices at its highest in more than 2 years amid rising commodity prices, but CPI M/M was at a wider than anticipated contraction. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as they took a breather from the prior day’s gains with demand subdued as Japanese stocks remained afloat and amid the absence of the BoJ purchases in the market today, while Australian yields were relatively unmoved following the 2025 Aussie government bond auction. PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.20% for a net neutral daily position. (Newswires)

Top Asian News

  • Didi Chuxing Plans to File for New York IPO in April: Reuters
  • For the Rich, Living in Asia Is Costlier Than Anywhere Else
  • Tencent- Backed Linklogis Rises 9.9% in Hong Kong Debut
  • TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Deman

Bourses in Europe trade mixed and continue to lack a firm direction (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%), with ranges of the price action also relatively narrow and contained following a directionless and uninspiring cash open. US equity futures meanwhile are similarly mixed/contained with modest underperformance experienced in the NQ (-0.1%) amid headwinds from rising yields and following the tech sector’s outperformance on Wall Street yesterday. Back to Europe, Spain’s IBEX (-0.2%) narrowly underperforms amid pressure from its financials exposure – with the banking sector among the laggards. Conversely, Switzerland’s SMI (+0.3%) gleans support from its vast healthcare exposure as the sector resides as the top performer. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear theme nor risk biases. The tech sector is firmer with potential tailwinds from TSMC reported a third straight quarter of record sales, with revenue narrowly ahead of forecasts reporting a third straight quarter of record sales, revenue narrowly ahead of forecasts. In terms of individual movers, Credit Suisse (-1.3%) is pressured after the bank tightened financing terms it offers hedge funds following the Archegos situation, with the bank moving from static margining to dynamic margining which could reduce profitably for traders and force them to post more collateral. On the flip side, Tui (-5.3%) trades at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after it commenced a convertible bond offering of EUR 350mln which can be extended to EUR 400mln – with the proceeds to be used to improve its liquidity position.

Top European News

  • U.S. Tax Proposal Is ‘Very Interesting’, EU’s Breton says
  • U.K.’s Sunak Under Pressure Over Handling of Greensill Aid Bid
  • ECB’s Visco: EU Recovery Fund, Faster Vaccinations Are Crucial
  • Italy Set to Ease Lockdown Restrictions in Most of the Country

In FX, nothing new from Fed chair Powell to augment FOMC minutes or fresh catalyst for a rebound in US Treasury yields amidst relatively mild re-steepening, but enough it seems for the Dollar to regain some composure as the week draws to a close. Indeed, the index has rebounded from Thursday’s 91.995 low to probe above 92.300, with the ripples reaching all DXY components and spreading beyond to other Greenback counterparts as several psychological and key technical levels are being breached or rigorously tested. However, the Buck still has a long way to go before getting back on track, and the nearest hurdles come in the form of 200 and 21 DMAs at 92.330 and 92.363, then recent highs and 92.500 before the index even considers staging an attempt to revisit Monday’s 93.000+ peak. Turning to fundamentals, PPI data is due and could provide a guide for CPI next week.

  • AUD/NZD - The Aussie is underperforming across the board, with Aud/Usd struggling to retain grasp of the 0.7600 handle and Aud/Nzd fading below 1.0850 as the Kiwi maintains 0.7000+ status against its US rival ahead of the RNBZ next week. Hence, at this stage hefty option expiry interest in Nzd/Usd at the 0.6950 strike (1.2 bn) does not appear influential in contrast to expiries between 0.7600-20 (almost 1 bn) that could keep Aud/Usd capped amidst a suspension of AZN vaccinations in the state of NSW.
  • JPY - Having touched, but failing to pierce 109.00 vs the Dollar yesterday, the Yen has subsequently retreated through 109.50 on the aforementioned resumption of UST bear steepening that leaves JGBs with some catching up to do. However, 110.00 may continue to keep Usd/Jpy firmly in retracement mode after 2 consecutive rejections of the round number on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR/CAD - All conceding ground to the mini Greenback revival, as Sterling strives to pare declines from a deeper reversal to circa 1.3670 and under the 100 DMA at one stage (1.3687), but the Pound looks destined to give up more 2021 gains against the Euro as the cross approaches 0.8700 following a bullish close over 0.8670. Nevertheless, the single currency remains locked in its own battle vs the Buck around 1.1900 and the 200 DMA that comes in at 1.1896 today, while the Franc is pivoting 0.9250 and 1.1000 against the Dollar and Euro respectively in wake of lower than expected Swiss jobless rates. On that note, the Loonie is eyeing Canada’s labour report for independent direction between 1.2611-1.2555 parameters vs its US peer, and is also mindful that 1.2 bn option expiry interest at 1.2600 will be withdrawn barring execution at the NY cut.
  • SCANDI/EM - A bit of a double whammy for the Norwegian Krona as softer crude prices on balance compound considerably weaker than forecast headline CPI to leave Eur/Nok hovering near new wtd highs around 10.1270 compared to sub-10.0250 lows and Nok/Sek unwinding gains as the Swedish Crown holds above 10.2000 in Euro cross terms. Elsewhere, broad weakness vs the Usd and the Zar having to contend with Russia surmising that its Sputnik V vaccine is not as effective against SA’s COVID-19 strain, while the Cnh weighs up mixed Chinese data and Try digests latest CBRT survey findings revealing higher year-end projections for inflation and the 1-week repo rate, but significant Lira depreciation – see 8.00BST post on the headline feed for details.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures traded with modest losses in early European hours as the indecisive risk tone and firmer Dollar keep prices subdued but somewhat contained. At the time of writing, WTI resides around USD 59.50/bbl (vs 59.13-95 range) whilst its Brent counterpart trades near USD 63/bbl (vs 62.57-63.49 range). Futures saw a similar bout of pre-US-entrance choppiness as had been experienced throughout the week, with no specific fundamental catalyst at the time of the move. The narrative remains little changed as participants eye any demand impacts from the rising COVID cases among key consumers, prompting more stringent lockdown measures – with the German Health Minister today stating that nationwide measures are needed to break the latest wave. On the flip side, France has announced that the first AstraZeneca dose should be followed by a second dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for those under 55 years of age. Although this announcement may have been a function of the rare blood clots, this may provide more flexibility when it comes to the vaccination drive as the EU has secured more orders of the latter. On the supply front, Chinese oil giant CNOOC said today a fire that broke out on an offshore platform Monday was extinguished on Tuesday. The incident may affect its production by up to 600k barrels, or 0.1% of the annual total. Aside from the above, oil-specific news flow has remained on the lighter side. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are subdued as they track the firmer Buck, with the former back below USD 1,750/oz (vs high 1,757/oz) and the latter still holding its head above USD 25/oz (vs high 25.49/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper remains softer whilst Shanghai copper and Dalian iron prices were pressured overnight by the firmer Dollar, indecisive risk tone – with some also citing fears over potential Chinese policy tightening following the inflation figures.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: March PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 2.8%, MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: March PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.2%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: March PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%, MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: Feb. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 4.9%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%

DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

It was yet another buoyant day for financial markets yesterday as remarks from Fed Chair Powell helped to sustain the ongoing strength in risk assets, whilst also putting downward pressure on Treasury yields. Although Powell’s comments stuck to his dovish messaging of late, they offered fresh reassurance to investors who’d begun to price in earlier rate increases on the back of some very strong economic data in recent weeks, not least with last week’s jobs report. In response to this, equity indices hit fresh highs across multiple regions, with the S&P 500 (+0.42%), the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) and the MSCI World index (+0.50%) all climbing to new records. That marked the 7th successive advance for the MSCI World Index, whilst the VIX index of volatility (-0.21pts) closed beneath 17pts for the first time since the pandemic began last year.

Looking at Powell’s remarks in more depth, he reiterated the extent of the damage to the economy and the labour market relative to its pre-Covid state, saying how eight and a half million people were still out of work, and that the “burden is still falling on lower income workers, the unemployment rate in the bottom quartile is still 20 per cent.” He also noted that the country’s disparate vaccination rates could pose a risk to the recovery, which “remains uneven and incomplete.” Notably, he said that the Fed wanted to see a succession of strong monthly jobs growth like the one in March, saying that “we want to see a string of ones like that so we can really begin to show progress toward our goals”. So the jobs reports over the coming months will be under intense focus from investors to see if they meet this criteria. In response to Powell, yields on 10yr Treasuries extended their decline, ending the day -5.5bps lower at 1.619%, though this morning they’re up +1.6bps. That level at the close yesterday was actually their lowest closing level in more than two weeks, and even with this morning’s increase, the decline in Treasury yields over the week so far (-8.7bps) puts them on track for their biggest weekly move lower since last June, which marks a reversal of fortunes from Q1 when 10yr Treasury yields saw their third biggest increase so far this century, having moved up by +83bps.

With yields continuing to move lower yesterday, this offered further support for tech stocks, which led the outperformance in US equities once again, as the NASDAQ rose +1.03% and the NYSE FANG+ index (+1.39%) recorded its 9th consecutive daily advance. Technology hardware (+1.64%), Software (+1.47%), and Semiconductors (+1.01%) were the leading industries in the S&P at the expense of cyclicals such as Energy (-1.36%) and Banks (-0.23%) which were strong outperformers in the first quarter when oil and rates rose sharply. Meanwhile financial conditions continued to ease, with Bloomberg’s index for the US moving to its most accommodative level since late-2018. And although we did get some worse-than-expected data on the weekly initial jobless claims, which came in at 744k in the week through April 3 (vs. 680k expected), if anything this just bolstered the view that the Fed will remain on hold for longer. Furthermore, the decline in the US dollar yesterday (-0.43%) has put the greenback on track for its worst weekly performance so far this year.

Overnight in Asia markets are mostly trading lower with the Shanghai Comp (-0.74%), Hang Seng (-0.72%), Kospi (-0.13%) and Asx (-0.45%) all losing ground. The main exception to this pattern this morning is the Nikkei (+0.38%), which has moved higher even as the Japanese government appear set to impose tougher restrictions in a few areas, with Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura saying that they would seek to introduce them in Tokyo, Kyoto and Okinawa. Separately in South Korea, the country said that social distancing measures would stay in place for another 3 weeks, which includes a limit on gatherings of more than 5 people. In terms of economic data, the Chinese inflation release has showed that PPI inflation rose to +4.4% yoy in March (vs. +3.6% expected), which is the fastest pace of price growth since July 2018. Meanwhile CPI also printed higher at +0.4% yoy (vs. +0.3% expected). Outside of Asia, equity futures are pointing higher once again in both the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.14% this morning, suggesting yet another rise from the index’s latest record high.

Looking at yesterday’s other moves, European equities were similarly buoyant as mentioned with the STOXX 600 at a fresh record, though they’d closed for the day by the time Powell started speaking. A number of new milestones were reached, with the CAC 40 (+0.57%) at a post-GFC high, whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.83%) reached a post-pandemic high. For sovereign bonds it was a strong day once again as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-0.8bps) and BTPs (-3.0bps) all moving lower.

In terms of the latest on the pandemic, vaccination numbers have continue to improve around the world. France met its target of vaccinating 10 million residents with a first shot one week ahead of schedule as the country is in the midst of its third national lockdown. Separately, Bloomberg reported new numbers on the number of Covid-19 vaccinations that have been exported from the EU, with over 80 million vials having been sent abroad –of which nearly 40% have gone to the UK and Japan. By comparison, 112 million shots have been delivered to EU member states through April 5th, and although various EU leaders have called for slowing vaccine exports, there has yet to be a meaningful change in policy. Over in the US, the 7-day average of vaccinations doses rose to 3.04 million per day, which comes as eligibility for the shot has increased to include almost all US adults. Even as the vaccination program continues at pace however, cases are increasing in spots all across the country – Florida saw its most cases since early February, Ohio rose by its most in nearly a month, and Wisconsin saw the most new cases in nearly two months. The latter two were driven primarily by new variants.

Back to Europe, and yesterday saw the release of the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, which showed that all of the Governing Council supported the move to use the flexibility built into PEPP to increase the pace of bond purchases, provided that the size of the overall PEPP envelope was not on the table. Our chief European economist Mark Wall has a write up of the minutes (link here), and he notes that the hawks are stretching their wings by making this the price of their support. On the question of reviewing the pace of purchases, the minutes showed that the Governing Council “would undertake a quarterly joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook in order to determine the pace of purchases”, but it also said that there should be flexibility applied in the intervening period to determine the pace according to market conditions. Against this backdrop, 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the Euro Area hit their highest level since early 2019 yesterday, rising another +0.5bps to 1.565%.

Wrapping up with yesterday’s data, German factory orders rose by +1.2% in March as expected, though the previous month figures was revised down to show +0.8% growth (vs. +1.4% previously). Staying on Germany, the March construction PMI rose to 47.5, its highest level since August, while the UK’s construction PMI rose to 61.7 (vs. 55.0 expected), which was its highest level since September 2014. Finally, the Euro Area PPI reading for February rose to +1.5% year-on-year (vs. +1.3% expected), which is the fastest pace since May 2019.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include German and French industrial production for February, as well as Italian retail sales for that month. Meanwhile in the US, we’ll get the PPI reading for March. In addition, central bank speakers include ECB.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/09/2021 - 08:00

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Revving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry

With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.

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Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive.”

But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As the inaugural chair of the University of Florida’s department of tourism, hospitality and event management, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent a growing share of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them.

And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada.
The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Katherine Fu

The future of tourism is in events and experiences

Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the U.S. alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both industry leaders and academics are paying attention.

Event tourism is also key to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated an estimated $422 million for the local economy and drew record-breaking crowds to the city’s hotels.

That’s why when Formula One announced it would be making a 10-year commitment to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was eager to spread the news. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated $100 million in tax revenue, the head of that agency later announced.

Why Formula One?

Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated about $2.6 billion in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and 27% from 2019, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019.

This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500.

Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur.
Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix. Rachel Fu, CC BY

That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond.

This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.

How hospitality and business programs should prepare students

To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential.

Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on environmental responsibility in recent years. While some critics have been skeptical of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both contributes to climate change and is threatened by it. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism.

Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important.

Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the younger generation’s growing interest in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts.

Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow

F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a strategic move in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.

Looking ahead in 2024, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in broadcasting technology and evolving sponsorship models are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on Feb. 23, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.

Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady…

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Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances during the first half of 2023. In this post, we interpret the recent drop in ON RRP take-up through the lens of the channels that we identify in our recent Staff Report as driving its initial increase.

ON RRP Take-up Has Been Decreasing since June 2023…

A blue single-line chart depicts ON RRP take-pp from 2020  through the end of 2023 in trillions of U.S. dollars. The chart shows a steady increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022. Ater a period of relatively stable balances in the first half of 2023, the chart shows a recent drop in ON RRP take-up.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis. FRED database.

Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs

As the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased the supply of reserves to the banking system and, as a result, banks’ balance sheets also grew. Reserves increased from $1.6 trillion—or 9 percent of banks assets—in January 2020 to $3.2 trillion—or 16 percent of bank assets—over the following three months, reaching a historical maximum of 19 percent of banks’ assets in September 2021. As the chart below shows, bank assets also grew from $18 trillion in January of 2020 to $20 trillion in April 2020, and continued to increase to $23 trillion in May 2023.

As banks’ balance sheets expand, regulatory ratios—such as the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)—are likely to become tighter for some institutions. Banks react to increased balance-sheet costs by pushing some of their deposits toward the money market fund (MMF) industry—for instance, by lowering the rate paid on bank deposits—and reducing their demand for short-term debt. As we explain in our paper, both effects are likely to have boosted ON RRP take-up during March 2021 – May 2023, as most MMFs are eligible to invest in the ON RRP and do so especially when alternative investment options, such as banks’ wholesale short-term debt—including repos by dealers affiliated with a bank holding company—dwindle.

Likely, these effects have subsided relative to 2022. Indeed, since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023, below the average of 16 percent observed between March 2020 and May 2023. Since the SLR treats all assets in the same way regardless of their riskiness, large banks’ balance-sheet expansions are particularly costly if they are used to finance safe assets with low returns. Therefore, though bank assets have remained relatively stable, the recent decline in the ratio of reserves to bank assets has likely reduced banks’ overall balance-sheet costs.

…while Bank Assets and Reserves Relative to Bank Assets Have Remained Roughly Constant.

 A two-line chart depicts bank assets in red and the ratio of bank reserves to assets in blue from 2020 to late 2023. Since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED database.

Consistent with a decrease in banks’ balance-sheet costs (and an increase in the supply of bank debt), the interest rates at which banks and broker dealers borrow via overnight Treasury-backed repos have increased since the fourth quarter of 2022 and are now a few basis points above the ON RRP rate (see chart below). This positive rate differential pushes MMFs away from investing at the ON RRP facility and into private repos.

The SOFR-ON RRP Spread Has Been Positive…

A blue single-line chart depicts the spread between the secured overnight financing rate and the ON RRP rate in basis points from 2020 through the end of 2024. The rate differential has been positive since early 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, FRED database.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can affect ON RRP take-up by MMFs in two ways. First, the interest-rate pass-through of MMF shares is higher than that of bank deposits; as a result, the size of the MMF industry comoves with the monetary policy cycle as investors switch from bank deposits to MMF shares when the policy rate increases. Though the assets of the MMF industry are at an all-time high, the pace of the increase has somewhat decreased recently, consistent with a slower pace of monetary policy tightening; moreover, the share of MMF assets managed by government funds—the ones most likely to invest in the ON RRP—has decreased since June 2022 by 7 percentage points.

Second, monetary policy can affect MMFs’ take-up at the ON RRP also through its effect on interest-rate uncertainty. Higher uncertainty leads MMFs to rebalance their portfolios toward investments with shorter duration; the ON RRP is one such investment as it is overnight. Indeed, interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023. Recently, however, the increase has been partially reversed. Indeed, the average level of the MOVE was 125.6 in the first half of 2023 but declined to 117.3 in the second half of the year.

…while Interest-Rate Uncertainty Has Been Decreasing.

A blue single line chart shows that interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

The Supply of T-bills

A third driver of ON RRP take-up is the supply of T-bills. The Federal Government has expanded the supply of T-bills dramatically in 2023: T-bills outstanding increased from $3.7 trillion at the end of 2022 to $5.3 trillion at the end of September 2023, with a $1.3 trillion increase since June. As the supply of T-bills grows, the investment options of MMFs—and especially of government funds, which represent 83 percent of the industry and can only invest in short-term government debt and repos backed by government debt—expand and, as a result, their investment in the ON RRP dwindles. In our staff report, we estimate that a $100 billion increase in the amount of T-bill issuance reduces the proportion of ON RRP investment in a government-MMF portfolio by 2.3 percentage points, relative to that in a prime-MMF portfolio; since average monthly T-bill issuance went from $1.12 trillion in the period from 2022:Q1-2023:Q1 to $1.53 trillion in 2023:Q2-2023:Q3, this effect on portfolio rebalancing amounts to an additional decrease in ON RRP investment of roughly $350 billion.

Summing It Up

The increase in ON RRP take-up between 2021 and May 2023 was driven by a series of factors: a rise in banks’ balance-sheet costs due to the expansion of the supply of reserves in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid hikes in policy rates aimed at fighting inflation and the resulting increase in interest-rate uncertainty, and the decrease in the T-bill supply of 2021-22 resulting from the normalization of public debt after the COVID-19  crisis.

These factors have reversed: the Federal Reserve restarted running off its balance sheet after the temporary expansion during the banking turmoil of March 2023; the growth of the banking system waned while the ratio of reserves to asset decreased; the pace of interest-rate hikes slowed down; and the T-bill supply increased again. If these dynamics persist in the months ahead, ON RRP take-up may continue to decrease. Such a steady decline would be consistent with that observed in early 2018, when investment at the ON RRP gradually disappeared as the Federal Reserve continued to normalize the size of its balance sheet and reserves in the banking system became less abundant.

Gara Afonso is the head of Banking Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Gabriele La Spada is a financial research economist in Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.   

How to cite this post:
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada, “Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 19, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

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