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Futures Soar, Safe Havens Tumble After Russia Announces Some Troops Returning To Base

Futures Soar, Safe Havens Tumble After Russia Announces Some Troops Returning To Base

With less than 24 hours to go until the Feb 16 CNN and…

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Futures Soar, Safe Havens Tumble After Russia Announces Some Troops Returning To Base

With less than 24 hours to go until the Feb 16 CNN and CIA-leaked Putin "invasion day" - because if you are Russia you always leak to the US intel agencies when you are going to invade a sovereign nation - this morning markets got a welcome surprise when just after 3am ET, Interfax reported and Russia's Defense Ministry later confirmed that some troops are starting to return to their regular bases after completing drills. Markets welcomed the positive signals from Moscow, which included Russia’s top diplomat saying that diplomacy with the West could succeed, as US equity futures surged, bond yields were lifted and and oil, gold and other safe havens were slammed amid continued optimism that geopolitical tensions in Ukraine may be easing.

As of 715am, emini S&P futures were 1.6%, or 72 points higher, and trading at 4,464 while Nasdaq futures rose 2.2% and Dow futures were 1.2% higher. 10Y Treasury yields bounced above 2.02% after dropping as low as 1.90% yesterday after the US deep state sparked fresh groundless panic about an imminent invasion. The dollar, oil and gold tumbled while cryptos jumped. Meanwhile, iron ore tumbled as China ramped up a campaign to stop prices from overheating.

In premarket trading, Intel rose after agreeing to buy Israel’s Tower Semiconductor Ltd. for $5.4 billion. Big U.S. technology companies including Apple Inc., Tesla Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also rose, along with cryptocurrency-exposed stocks as Bitcoin extended its recent rebound back above the $44,000 level. Bigtech stocks also gained in premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Intel (INTC US) adds 1.4% in early trading after it agreed to acquire Tower Semiconductor for about $5.4 billion. Tower Semiconductor jumps 45%.
  • Resonant Inc. (RESN US) shares soar257% following its announced sale to Murata Electronics North America for $4.50 per share.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) shares rise 3.5% in U.S. premarket; focus is shifting to solid long-term and multiple growth factors now that the semiconductor company completed Xilinx acquisition, writes Cowen (outperform).
  • Larimar Therapeutics (LRMR US) shares sink 58% in premarket trading after the company said the FDA is maintaining its clinical hold on Larimar’s CTI-1601 program.
  • Arista Networks (ANET US) shares jump 10% in premarket trading after the cloud-networking company gave a quarterly revenue forecast that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
  • Amkor Technology (AMKR US) shares gain 9% in early trading, after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave a forecast.
  • Car rental company Avis Budget (CAR US) reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Shares fell 1.2% in postmarket trading Monday, with Morgan Stanley pointing out a weakness in pricing.

Also in knee jerk reaction, the Russian ruble strengthened the most in more than two weeks against the dollar, leading gains among emerging-market currencies after the Interfax news service reported some troops were returning to bases after drills in the Western and Southern military districts, fueling speculation tensions over Ukraine are abating. The yield on Russia’s ruble debt tumbled a quarter percentage point.

Still, significant uncertainty remains over the extent of Russia’s pullback, with NATO saying it has yet to see evidence of a pullback. And nerves are still raw after Monday, when stocks were spooked by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s sarcastic comment about the rest of the world predicting a date for an attack by Russia. The U.S. has said its intelligence indicates Russia may attack imminently, although officials in Moscow have repeatedly denied an invasion is planned and it now looks like they were correct again. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are continuing, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Markets have been whipsawed this week as the Ukraine crisis added to existing concerns over high inflation and the withdrawal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Investor focus will turn to producer price inflation figures for cues on how aggressive the Fed is likely to be with reining in its monetary policy.

“What we are seeing is a Fed that is reacting to inflationary prints even though many of the pressures on inflation are factors that the Fed really can’t solve,” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said on Bloomberg Television. “So that certainly increases the risks and reduces the clarity.”

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1%, with FTSE MIB outperforms adding 1.1%, FTSE 100 lags adding 0.3%. Autos, industrials and chemicals are the strongest performing sectors.  Energy shares underperformed in Europe as oil retreated from the highest since 2014 and natural gas prices dropped on a possible cooling in the crisis. Delivery Hero SE led gains in Europe, while Glencore Plc jumped to a 10-year high.

Asian stocks, most of which closed before the Russian news hit the tape, extended losses for a third day, checked by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and concern Russia’s fallout with Ukraine will lead to conflict. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%. Financial and industrial sectors were the biggest drags while consumer staples and healthcare names provided support. Equities in mainland China bucked the trend, climbing after the central bank stepped up support for the slowing economy. The CSI 300 rose more than 1% after the People’s Bank of China injected a net 100 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) into the banking system with its medium-term lending facility, while leaving the borrowing rate unchanged. The key China stock gauge is still down nearly 7% this year, hurt by concerns over the economy. Investors will closely examine the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes due this week for the next clues on monetary-policy tightening, said Mamoru Shimode, the chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. The market also remains on edge over geopolitical tensions, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spooked investors with confusing comments. “We’re in a very delicate situation for markets,” Shimode said. “The worst-case scenario is for this to drag on, leading to higher and higher oil and energy prices, which will leave no choice for the U.S. to tighten policy further and in turn, deteriorate economic growth.”

Japanese equities fell for a second day as the latest data on the local economy failed to cheer investors amid ongoing worry over Russia-Ukraine tensions and upcoming U.S. interest-rate hikes. Service providers and banks were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.8%. Recruit was the largest contributors to a 0.8% loss in the Nikkei 225, dropping 12% as analysts pointed to concerns about the post-pandemic outlook for HR-related business. The yen strengthened 0.2% against the dollar. Japan’s gross domestic product expanded at a slightly slower-than-expected annualized pace of 5.4% in the three months through December compared with the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office reported Tuesday. Economists had estimated growth of 6%. “Real GDP remained 0.2% below pre-pandemic 4Q 2019, highlighting Japan’s lagging recovery compared to the U.S. and Europe,” Shuji Tonouchi, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley wrote in a note. “High import prices continue to spread to the investment deflator, which has weighed on housing and other investment.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.3% as risk assets rallied; Sweden’s krona was the top performer among G-10 peers while the yen and the Swiss franc were at the bottom, after giving up earlier gains. The euro erased yesterday’s loss versus the dollar to briefly top $1.1350. The pound advanced against the dollar but fell against the euro. U.K., real average wages fell at the fastest pace since 2014 in December, prompting concerns about a cost of living crisis. The Aussie recovered even as iron ore plummeted after Beijing ramped up a campaign to stop prices overheating. The ruble soared as much as 2.1% and currencies in the EU’s east extended gains against the dollar

In rates, Treasuries slid as haven-buying is unwound leading to modest bear steepening with 2s10s widening ~3bps, while bunds hovered, underperforming European peripheral bonds. Treasury losses were led by long-end of the curve, as stocks rally globally on signs that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be easing. Yields are cheaper by 4bp-5bp across long-end of the curve, steepening 5s30s by ~2bp; front-end outperforms slightly with 2- year yields cheaper by less than 1bp and 2s10s steeper by nearly 4bp. In the 10-year sector bunds outperform U.S. by 2.7bp, gilts by 6.3bp.  Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing ~1bp. Italian 10-year yield briefly touches 2%, now back to 1.965%.

In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Monday’s range, falling 2.7% to trade near $92.85. Spot gold falls roughly $15 to trade near $1,856/oz, while other precious metals follow suit. Most base metals trade in the green; LME lead rises 1%, outperforming peers. LME aluminum lags.

Bitcoin continues to pick up and back away from a potential test of the USD 40k mark to the downside following pressure emerging at the tail-end of last week/over the weekend

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include January’s PPI and the February Empire State manufacturing survey. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s UK unemployment for December, the German ZEW survey for February, and the second estimate of the Euro Area’s Q4 GDP. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, and earnings releases include Airbnb.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 4,450.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 465.91
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 187.14
  • MXAPJ little changed at 616.00
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 26,865.19
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,914.70
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 24,355.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,446.09
  • Sensex up 3.0% to 58,096.29
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,206.93
  • Kospi down 1.0% to 2,676.54
  • Brent Futures down 2.5% to $94.02/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,854.13
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.31% to 96.07
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.29%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1340
  • Brent Futures down 2.5% to $94.02/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Investor confidence in Germany’s economic recovery improved further as the country edges closer to loosening its coronavirus restrictions. The ZEW institute’s gauge of expectations rose to 54.3 in February from 51.7 the previous month. An index of current conditions also increased
  • Employment in the euro area exceeded its pre-pandemic level, shrugging off surging Covid-19 infections to highlight the economy’s increasing resilience to virus disruptions. The number of employed people rose 2.1% from a year ago in the final quarter of 2021, reaching 161.8 million, data released Tuesday showed
  • China’s central bank stepped up support for its slowing economy by pumping in cash via policy loans for a second straight month. The benchmark stock index advanced, outperforming regional equities.
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden says the recent krona weakening is partly related to the market perceiving the Riksbank’s latest decision as dovish, but even more to the tensions linked to Russia and Ukraine

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk:

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly lower following a similar handover from Wall Street. ASX 200 was subdued as the energy and mining names gave back some of yesterday’s gains, whilst the RBA minutes offered no fresh information. Nikkei 225 was pressured by its industrial sector and with a resilient Yen providing further headwinds. Hang Seng continued to be overpowered by the COVID situation in Hong Kong which prompted Chief Executive Lam to announce new measures to curb the spread. Shanghai Comp. bucked the trend and posted mild gains after the PBoC decided to inject CNY 300bln via 1yr MLF, albeit at a maintained rate of 2.85%

Top Asian News

  • China Warns Iron Ore Trading Cos Against Speculation, Hoarding
  • Hong Kong ‘Overwhelmed’ But Doesn’t Plan Lockdown: Virus Update
  • PBOC Offers 300b Yuan of MLF With Rate Unchanged at 2.85%
  • Japan Preliminary 4Q GDP Annualized Rises 5.4% Q/q; Est. +6%

European bourses are firmer in a pick-up from a relatively contained open amid developments on the geopolitical front. Updates that some Russia troops are returning to base lifted above Monday's best levels.US futures In Europe, sectors are all in the green though is the relative underperformer amid additionalBasic Resources monitoring from China re. iron ore.

Top European News

  • U.K. Incomes See Biggest Squeeze Since 2014 as Inflation Bites
  • HSBC Said to Face ‘Disruptive’ Review of Credit Risk Reporting
  • Glencore Sets Aside $1.5 Billion as Graft Probes Near End
  • Engie Hikes Dividend 60% as Energy Price Surge Lifts Profits

In FX, the greenback slips as markets draw encouragement from Russia recalling troops after completing drills. Euro especially relieved by less perceived risk of imminent invasion of Ukraine. Pound perky as risk sentiment picks up and UK earnings exceed expectations. Kiwi and firm as NZ and China improve FTA terms.Yuan Rouble up as Russia’s Lavrov says dialogue with West to continue and results are achievable.

In commodities, crude benchmarks were hit on the reported withdrawal of some Russian troops, in an unwinding of geopolitical premia after a relatively uneventful APAC session. Pressure that sent below the USD 94.00/bbl mark, for instance. Brent Spot gold/silver also deteriorated on the above update, as havens across the board waned; albeit, the yellow metal retains USD 1850/oz. China's NDRC and SAMR will reportedly be holding a meeting on iron ore in Qingdao on Feb 17th; Glencore (GLEN LN) and Trafigura are among those required to submit recent transaction data and port stockpiles, according to Chinese press. Iraq Federal Court deems Kurdish oil and gas law as unconstitutional, State News reports. Barclays raised its WTI and Brent price forecasts, both by USD 7/bbl, to USD 89/bbl and USD 92/bbl respectively, according to Reuters.

In fixed income, core bonds back off in tandem with some Russian forces returning from drills. Gilts hold up better after well received 2032 DMO issuance in contrast to a so-so German Bobl sale. US Treasuries bear-steepen awaiting Wednesday's 20 year note supply.

In crypto, bitcoin continues to pick up and back away from a potential test of the USD 40k mark to the downside following pressure emerging at the tail-end of last week/over the weekend.

In geopolitics:

  • Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin is "willing to negotiate", has always demanded negotiations and diplomacy; adding the Ukraine crisis was only one part of Russia's larger security concerns, via CNN.
  • US State Department advises US citizens to immediately depart Belarus, according to Bloomberg.
  • US is reportedly closing its embassy in Kyiv and relocating diplomatic operations to Western Ukraine. US State Department ordered destruction of computer equipment amid warnings of Russian invasion, according to WSJ.
  • Russia military says it is continuing set of drills involving almost all districts and navies, Interfax reports; some Western and Southern units are set to return to bases.
  • Russian Kremlin says that warnings from the US that Russia is going to launch a fresh attack on Ukraine on Wednesday is "baseless hysteria", via Reuters.
  • Russian lawmakers vote in favour of sending a resolution on the recognition of two breakaway regions in Eastern Ukraine to President Putin, via Reuters.
  • EU's Borrell says if there is a war between Ukraine and Russia, Nordstream 2 will not become operational, via Reuters.
  • Biden admin officials are reportedly running out of patience regarding talks on China's shortfalls under the Phase One deal, but the White House plans to let the talks play out before considering the next steps, according to Bloomberg sources. This is in-fitting with reports from last Monday.
  • There are reports of Houthi militias firing a ballistic missile at Marib, Yemen, according to Al Arabiya

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%, revised 0.3%; YoY, est. 9.1%, prior 9.7%
  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 7.8%, prior 8.3%
  • 8:30am: Feb. Empire Manufacturing, est. 12.0, prior -0.7
  • 4pm: Dec. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $137.4b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was a wild ride back and forth across what were relatively restrained ranges given all the newsflow. Headlines bounced about all over the place so it was hard to keep up. However in something I've never seen before, late quotes from the Ukrainian President that Russia would attack tomorrow, were soon rowed back by his office as "sarcasm". I'm not sure if I've ever known a better use of the phrase "lost in translation".

Starting in Europe, markets began the week catching up to the negative headlines that broke late on Friday. Optimistically, by the middle of the day, comments from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to President Putin that diplomacy should continue and there was still a chance of a deal helped to stabilise various assets. Focus then turned back to global monetary policy tightening, where comments from officials echoed what they said last week. St. Louis Fed President Bullard, much like last week, preferred a more aggressive path of policy, reiterating in a CNBC interview that he wanted 100bps of rate increases by July 1, saying that “our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to data.”

This led to a big reversal in fixed income which peaked around the European close. Initially European sovereign yields sold off nearly 10bps in the morning but closed only marginally lower with 10yr bunds (-1.3bps) and OATs (-0.4bps) making a sharp about turn. Gilt yields actually rose across the curve, with the 10yr yield up +4.5bps to a 3-year high of 1.59% as overnight index swaps priced in a more aggressive series of rate moves this year. In keeping with the pattern of recent days, there was yet another widening in peripheral spreads, with the gap between Spanish and German 10yr yields moving above 100bps for the first time since June 2020, whilst the gap between Italian and German yields hit 169bps, the highest since July 2020.

The day was awash with headlines. Earlier U.S. officials reportedly had satellite images of Russian troops moving to attack positions which caused a wobble, but the big one was the headline from Ukraine’s President that was later put down to sarcasm.

Before the clarification, the headlines drove a discrete risk-off cross-asset price response, with 10yr yields falling around -7bps from their intraday highs, the S&P 500 dipping to session lows, and safe-haven currencies appreciating. Most assets stabilised for the remainder of the afternoon, however, as markets digested the misunderstanding. Next stop is German Chancellor Scholz’s planned trip to Moscow today. Expect plenty of headlines.

Treasury yields still wound up increasing across the curve after all was said and done, albeit below intraday highs, with 2yr yields (+7.5bps) outpacing 10yr yields (+5.0bps) on the continued hawkish tone from Fed officials combined with deteriorating risk sentiment. This drove the 2s10s curve to 41.0bps, the flattest level since August 2020. Fed funds futures are pricing 6.6 rate hikes by the end of 2022, the highest closing reading so far, and around +164bps of tightening, just below our US econ team’s updated call for +175bps of tightening this year.

For equities, the continued geopolitical tensions and the move to price in additional rate hikes led to further declines and the S&P 500 shed another -0.39%, well off the intra-day lows (-1.22%) but bringing its losses since January’s all-time high to -8.23% (-7.65% YTD). Growing volatility saw the VIX index rise a further +1.27pts, hitting 28.6pts, and Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions fell to its least accommodative level in 3 weeks. US tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ flat and the FANG+ up +0.57%. Over in Europe, where markets had been closed on Friday when the Ukraine headlines came through, the STOXX 600 lost a larger -1.83% (-2.99% at the day's lows).

Looking at some of the most affected assets, oil prices took another leg higher after the geopolitical headlines, echoing Friday’s surge, with Brent Crude up +2.16%, whilst WTI saw a somewhat bigger gain of +2.53%. That marked the highest closing level for both since 2014. Furthermore, European gas prices remained elevated with a further +4.32% gain, but at €80.77/MWh it was still roughly in line with where they’d spent most of January. Growing appetite for haven assets was very good news for gold however, which advanced +0.6% in its 6th gain in the last 7 sessions, and 9 of the last 11, eclipsing its recent closing peak back in November.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are mostly trading lower. In Japan, the Nikkei (-0.74%) has reversed its early morning gains after Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of +5.4% q/q, less than the consensus estimate of +6.0%. For 2021, the nation’s economy grew +1.7%, recording its first expansion in three years after contracting -4.5% in 2020 and -0.2% in 2019. Meanwhile, the Kospi (-1.06%) and the Hang Seng (-1.14%) are both also trading lower. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) and the CSI (+0.93%) are trading up after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected cash via policy loans for a second consecutive month to counter the economic slowdown. The PBOC pumped in a net amount of 100 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) in the banking system via its medium-term lending facility (MLF). The MLF rate was kept unchanged at 2.85% after being cut from 2.95% last month.

Separately, oil prices are touch lower with Brent crude futures down -0.69% to $95.81/bbl while US crude futures -0.76% to $94.73/bbl. US treasury yields are 1-2bps across the curve.

Looking ahead, equity futures in the DM are relatively flat with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.08%), Nasdaq (+0.20%) and DAX (+0.02%) waiting for fresh newsflow.

There wasn’t much on the data front yesterday, though we did get the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for January, which interestingly saw a decline in short and medium-term inflation expectations. In fact, short-term inflation expectations at the one-year horizon fell to 5.8%, the first decline since October 2020, whilst 3-year ahead expectations fell to 3.5% from 4.0% which was a bit surprising given all that we've seen and heard of late.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include January’s PPI and the February Empire State manufacturing survey. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s UK unemployment for December, the German ZEW survey for February, and the second estimate of the Euro Area’s Q4 GDP. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, and earnings releases include Airbnb.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/15/2022 - 07:48

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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March 14, 2024

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded…

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'Excess Mortality Skyrocketed': Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack 'Criminal' COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded experimental vaccines were hastily developed for a virus which primarily killed the old and fat (and those with other obvious comorbidities), and an aggressive, global campaign to coerce billions into injecting them ensued.

Then there were the lockdowns - with some countries (New Zealand, for example) building internment camps for those who tested positive for Covid-19, and others such as China welding entire apartment buildings shut to trap people inside.

It was an egregious and unnecessary response to a virus that, while highly virulent, was survivable by the vast majority of the general population.

Oh, and the vaccines, which governments are still pushing, didn't work as advertised to the point where health officials changed the definition of "vaccine" multiple times.

Tucker Carlson recently sat down with Dr. Pierre Kory, a critical care specialist and vocal critic of vaccines. The two had a wide-ranging discussion, which included vaccine safety and efficacy, excess mortality, demographic impacts of the virus, big pharma, and the professional price Kory has paid for speaking out.

Keep reading below, or if you have roughly 50 minutes, watch it in its entirety for free on X:

"Do we have any real sense of what the cost, the physical cost to the country and world has been of those vaccines?" Carlson asked, kicking off the interview.

"I do think we have some understanding of the cost. I mean, I think, you know, you're aware of the work of of Ed Dowd, who's put together a team and looked, analytically at a lot of the epidemiologic data," Kory replied. "I mean, time with that vaccination rollout is when all of the numbers started going sideways, the excess mortality started to skyrocket."

When asked "what kind of death toll are we looking at?", Kory responded "...in 2023 alone, in the first nine months, we had what's called an excess mortality of 158,000 Americans," adding "But this is in 2023. I mean, we've  had Omicron now for two years, which is a mild variant. Not that many go to the hospital."

'Safe and Effective'

Tucker also asked Kory why the people who claimed the vaccine were "safe and effective" aren't being held criminally liable for abetting the "killing of all these Americans," to which Kory replied: "It’s my kind of belief, looking back, that [safe and effective] was a predetermined conclusion. There was no data to support that, but it was agreed upon that it would be presented as safe and effective."

Carlson and Kory then discussed the different segments of the population that experienced vaccine side effects, with Kory noting an "explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society," adding "And why did the employed fare far worse than those that weren't? And this particularly white collar, white collar, more than gray collar, more than blue collar."

Kory also said that Big Pharma is 'terrified' of Vitamin D because it "threatens the disease model." As journalist The Vigilant Fox notes on X, "Vitamin D showed about a 60% effectiveness against the incidence of COVID-19 in randomized control trials," and "showed about 40-50% effectiveness in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 in observational studies."

Professional costs

Kory - while risking professional suicide by speaking out, has undoubtedly helped save countless lives by advocating for alternate treatments such as Ivermectin.

Kory shared his own experiences of job loss and censorship, highlighting the challenges of advocating for a more nuanced understanding of vaccine safety in an environment often resistant to dissenting voices.

"I wrote a book called The War on Ivermectin and the the genesis of that book," he said, adding "Not only is my expertise on Ivermectin and my vast clinical experience, but and I tell the story before, but I got an email, during this journey from a guy named William B Grant, who's a professor out in California, and he wrote to me this email just one day, my life was going totally sideways because our protocols focused on Ivermectin. I was using a lot in my practice, as were tens of thousands of doctors around the world, to really good benefits. And I was getting attacked, hit jobs in the media, and he wrote me this email on and he said, Dear Dr. Kory, what they're doing to Ivermectin, they've been doing to vitamin D for decades..."

"And it's got five tactics. And these are the five tactics that all industries employ when science emerges, that's inconvenient to their interests. And so I'm just going to give you an example. Ivermectin science was extremely inconvenient to the interests of the pharmaceutical industrial complex. I mean, it threatened the vaccine campaign. It threatened vaccine hesitancy, which was public enemy number one. We know that, that everything, all the propaganda censorship was literally going after something called vaccine hesitancy."

Money makes the world go 'round

Carlson then hit on perhaps the most devious aspect of the relationship between drug companies and the medical establishment, and how special interests completely taint science to the point where public distrust of institutions has spiked in recent years.

"I think all of it starts at the level the medical journals," said Kory. "Because once you have something established in the medical journals as a, let's say, a proven fact or a generally accepted consensus, consensus comes out of the journals."

"I have dozens of rejection letters from investigators around the world who did good trials on ivermectin, tried to publish it. No thank you, no thank you, no thank you. And then the ones that do get in all purportedly prove that ivermectin didn't work," Kory continued.

"So and then when you look at the ones that actually got in and this is where like probably my biggest estrangement and why I don't recognize science and don't trust it anymore, is the trials that flew to publication in the top journals in the world were so brazenly manipulated and corrupted in the design and conduct in, many of us wrote about it. But they flew to publication, and then every time they were published, you saw these huge PR campaigns in the media. New York Times, Boston Globe, L.A. times, ivermectin doesn't work. Latest high quality, rigorous study says. I'm sitting here in my office watching these lies just ripple throughout the media sphere based on fraudulent studies published in the top journals. And that's that's that has changed. Now that's why I say I'm estranged and I don't know what to trust anymore."

Vaccine Injuries

Carlson asked Kory about his clinical experience with vaccine injuries.

"So how this is how I divide, this is just kind of my perception of vaccine injury is that when I use the term vaccine injury, I'm usually referring to what I call a single organ problem, like pericarditis, myocarditis, stroke, something like that. An autoimmune disease," he replied.

"What I specialize in my practice, is I treat patients with what we call a long Covid long vaxx. It's the same disease, just different triggers, right? One is triggered by Covid, the other one is triggered by the spike protein from the vaccine. Much more common is long vax. The only real differences between the two conditions is that the vaccinated are, on average, sicker and more disabled than the long Covids, with some pretty prominent exceptions to that."

Watch the entire interview above, and you can support Tucker Carlson's endeavors by joining the Tucker Carlson Network here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 16:20

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These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

Homeownership…

Published

5 hours ago

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March 14, 2024

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These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

Homeownership is one of the key pillars of the American dream. But for many families, the idyllic fantasy of a picket fence and backyard barbecues remains just that—a fantasy.

Thanks to elevated mortgage rates, sky-high house prices, and scarce inventory, millions of American families have been locked out of the opportunity to buy a home in many cities.

To shed light on America’s housing affordability crisis, Creditnews Research ranked the 50 most populous cities by the percentage of neighborhoods within reach for the typical married-couple household to buy a home in.

The study reveals a stark reality, with many cities completely out of reach for the most affluent household type. Not only that, the unaffordability has radically worsened in recent years.

Comparing how affordability has changed since Covid, Creditnews Research discovered an alarming pattern—indicating consistently more unaffordable housing in all but three cities.

Fortunately, there’s still hope for households seeking to put down roots in more affordable cities—especially for those looking beyond Los Angeles, New York, Boston, San Jone, and Miami.

The typical American family has a hard time putting down roots in many parts of the country. In 11 of the top 50 cities, at least 50% of neighborhoods are out of reach for the average married-couple household. The affordability gap has widened significantly since Covid; in fact, no major city has reported an improvement in affordability post-pandemic.

Sam Bourgi, Senior Analyst at Creditnews

Key findings

  • The most unaffordable cities are Los Angeles, Boston, St. Louis, and San Jose; in each city, 100% of neighborhoods are out of reach for for married-couple households earning a median income;

  • The most affordable cities are Cleveland, Hartford, and Memphis—in these cities, the typical family can afford all neighborhoods;

  • None of the top 50 cities by population saw an improvement in affordable neighborhoods post-pandemic;

  • California recorded the biggest spike in unaffordable neighborhoods since pre-Covid;

  • The share of unaffordable neighborhoods has increased the most since pre-Covid in San Jose (70 percentage points), San Diego (from 57.8 percentage points), and Riverside-San Bernardino (51.9 percentage points);

  • Only three cities have seen no change in housing affordability since pre-Covid: Cleveland, Memphis, and Hartford. They’re also the only cities that had 0% of unaffordable neighborhoods before Covid.

Cities with the highest share of unaffordable neighborhoods

With few exceptions, the most unaffordable cities for married-couple households tend to be located in some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets.

Four cities in the ranking have an unaffordability percentage of 100%—indicating that the median married-couple household couldn’t qualify for an average home in any neighborhood.

The following are the cities ranked from the least affordable to the most:

  • Los Angeles, CA: Housing affordability in Los Angeles has deteriorated over the last five years, as average incomes have failed to keep pace with rising property values and elevated mortgage rates. The median household income of married-couple families in LA is $117,056, but even at that rate, 100% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable.

  • St. Louis, MO: It may be surprising to see St. Louis ranking among the most unaffordable housing markets for married-couple households. But a closer look reveals that the Mound City was unaffordable even before Covid. In 2019, 98% of the city’s neighborhoods were unaffordable—way worse than Los Angeles, Boston, or San Jose.

  • Boston, MA: Boston’s housing affordability challenges began long before Covid but accelerated after the pandemic. Before Covid, married couples earning a median income were priced out of 90.7% of Boston’s neighborhoods. But that figure has since jumped to 100%, despite a comfortable median household income of $172,223.

  • San Jose, CA: Nestled in Silicon Valley, San Jose has long been one of the most expensive cities for housing in America. But things have gotten far worse since Covid, as 100% of its neighborhoods are now out of reach for the average family. Perhaps the most shocking part is that the median household income for married-couple families is $188,403—much higher than the national average.

  • San Diego, CA: Another California city, San Diego, is among the most unaffordable places in the country. Despite boasting a median married-couple household income of $136,297, 95.6% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable.

  • San Francisco, CA: San Francisco is another California city with a high married-couple median income ($211,585) but low affordability. The percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods for these homebuyers stands at 89.2%.

  • New York, NY: As one of the most expensive cities in America, New York is a difficult housing market for married couples with dual income. New York City’s share of unaffordable neighborhoods is 85.9%, marking a 33.4% rise from pre-Covid times.

  • Miami, FL: Partly due to a population boom post-Covid, Miami is now one of the most unaffordable cities for homebuyers. Roughly four out of five (79.4%) of Miami’s neighborhoods are out of reach price-wise for married-couple families. That’s a 34.7% increase from 2019.

  • Nashville, TN: With Nashville’s population growth rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, the city has also seen greater affordability challenges. In the Music City, 73.7% of neighborhoods are considered unaffordable for married-couple households—an increase of 11.9% from pre-Covid levels.

  • Richmond, VA: Rounding out the bottom 10 is Richmond, where 55.9% of the city’s 161 neighborhoods are unaffordable for married-couple households. That’s an 11.9% increase from pre-Covid levels.

Cities with the lowest share of unaffordable neighborhoods

All the cities in our top-10 ranking have less than 10% unaffordable neighborhoods—meaning the average family can qualify for a home in at least 90% of the city.

Interestingly, these cities are also outside the top 15 cities by population, and eight are in the bottom half.

The following are the cities ranked from the most affordable to the least:

  • Hartford, CT: Hartford ranks first with the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods at 0%, unchanged since pre-Covid times. Married couples earning a median income of $135,612 can afford to live in any of the city’s 16 neighborhoods. Interestingly, Hartford is the smallest city to rank in the top 10.

  • Memphis, TN: Like Hartford, Memphis has 0% unaffordable neighborhoods, meaning any married couple earning a median income of $101,734 can afford an average homes in any of the city’s 12 neighborhoods. The percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods also stood at 0% before Covid.

  • Cleveland, OH: The Midwestern city of Cleveland is also tied for first, with the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods at 0%. That means households with a median-couple income of $89,066 can qualify for an average home in all of the city’s neighborhoods. Cleveland is also among the three cities that have seen no change in unaffordability compared to 2019.

  • Minneapolis, MN: The largest city in the top 10, Minneapolis’ share of unaffordable neighborhoods stood at 2.41%, up slightly from 2019. Married couples earning the median income ($149,214) have access to the vast majority of the city’s 83 neighborhoods.

  • Baltimore, MD: Married-couple households in Baltimore earn a median income of $141,634. At that rate, they can afford to live in 97.3% of the city’s 222 neighborhoods, making only 2.7% of neighborhoods unaffordable. That’s up from 0% pre-Covid.

  • Louisville, KY: Louisville is a highly competitive market for married households. For married-couple households earning a median wage, only 3.6% of neighborhoods are unaffordable, up 11.9% from pre-Covid times.

  • Cincinnati, OH: The second Ohio city in the top 10 ranks close to Cleveland in population but has a much higher median married-couple household income of $129,324. Only 3.6% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable, up slightly from pre-pandemic levels.

  • Indianapolis, IN: Another competitive Midwestern market, only 4.4% of Indianapolis is unaffordable, making the vast majority of the city’s 92 neighborhoods accessible to the average married couple. Still, the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods before Covid was less than 1%.

  • Oklahoma City, OK: Before Covid, Oklahoma City had 0% neighborhoods unaffordable for married-couple households earning the median wage. It has since increased to 4.69%, which is still tiny compared to the national average.

  • Kansas City, MO: Kansas City has one of the largest numbers of neighborhoods in the top 50 cities. Its married-couple residents can afford to live in nearly 95% of them, making only 5.6% of neighborhoods out of reach. Like Indiana, Kansas City’s share of unaffordable neighborhoods was less than 1% before Covid.

The biggest COVID losers

What's particularly astonishing about the current housing market is just how quickly affordability has declined since Covid.

Even factoring in the market correction after the 2022 peak, the price of existing homes is still nearly one-third higher than before Covid. Mortgage rates have also more than doubled since early 2022.

Combined, the rising home prices and interest rates led to the worst mortgage affordability in more than 40 years.

Against this backdrop, it’s hardly surprising that unaffordability increased in 47 of the 50 cities studied and remained flat in the other three. No city reported improved affordability in 2024 compared to 2019.

The biggest increases are led by San Jose (70 percentage points), San Diego (57.8 percentage points), Riverside-San Bernardino (51.9 percentage points), Sacramento (43 percentage points), Orlando (37.4 percentage points), Miami (34.7 percentage points), and New York City (33.4 percentage points).

The following cities in our study are ranked by the largest percentage point change in unaffordable neighborhoods since pre-Covid:

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 14:00

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