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Futures Soar In Sharp Rebound From Thursday’s Massacre

Futures Soar In Sharp Rebound From Thursday’s Massacre

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Futures Soar In Sharp Rebound From Thursday's Massacre Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2020 - 07:47

After the worst market rout since the March crash, which saw the S&P plunge almost 6% on Thursday, U.S. stock index futures surged about 2% on Friday along with European stocks, pointing to a quick rebound for Wall Street from its biggest one-day dive in about three months on fears of a resurgence in coronavirus infections. Big U.S. lenders including Bank of America Corp , Citigroup Inc and Morgan Stanley rose between 3% and 5% in premarket trading after taking a hammering earlier this week. The dollar dropped along with the yen and Treasurys as investors sold safa havens. The VIX eased about 4.5 points after spiking to 40, its highest level since April 23.

Why are stocks surging? Because it appears that the lunatic have taken over the asylum again, with Hertz stock up over 50% after the company announced on Thursday it would try to sell bankrupt stock (to manic Robinhood daytraders), in order to fund its operations during bankruptcy, something that has never been attempted before as bankrupt stock is traditionally worthless but to Robinhooders it has about $600MM in value.

"We see some positive points - the worst is over, the economy is gradually re-opening - but we also see downside risks,” Janet Mui, investment director at Brewin Dolphin, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall we are adding a bit of equities now, primarily to the U.S. and emerging markets ex-Asia.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped, with car makers, banks and travel companies leading gains after driving yesterday’s losses. The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index was the best-performing segment on the broader European share gauge after Goldman Sachs eased its prediction for 2020 global car-market contraction, citing better regional expectations: Renault +3.3%, Daimler +2.1%, Continental AG +1.8%, Faurecia +1.7%, Volkswagen +1.5%

Markets largely ignored dismal news out of the U.K., where the economy shrank a record 20.4% in April as businesses and workers reeled under the lockdown designed to control the coronavirus pandemic. Leisure & accommodation activity fell nearly 90%. "These data state the obvious, but they're not of much value; data for the rest of Q2, H2 and the fiscal response are far more important. The GBP barely moved in response" according to BMO's Stephen Gallo.

Asian stocks fell, led by energy and IT, after falling in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with South Korea's Kospi Index dropping 2% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 falling 1.9%, while Jakarta Composite gained 0.5%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 11% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 1.1%, with DLE and Access falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed, with Zhejiang Guangsha advancing and Beijing Changjiu Logistics declining the most.

In rates, Treasuries bear-steepened by up to 6 basis points in the long end while European peripheral bonds slipped, unwinding a significant portion of Thursday’s flattening move on heavy volume in cash and futures, triggered by profit-taking during Asia session. Haven demand further unwound during European morning as U.S. stock futures recovered a portion of Thursday’s losses according to Bloomberg. Yields were cheaper by up to 6bp at long end with 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by 4bp-5bp and front end little changed; 10-year higher by ~4bp at 0.71%, still lower on the week by more than 18bp tracking declines for U.S. stocks; bunds outperformed U.S. by ~3.5bp on the day, gilts by ~1bp. Futures volumes through 7am ET were 10% above 5-day average levels at the long end.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell after yesterday posting the biggest gain in almost two months; the greenback weakened versus all Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc and the yen while Scandinavian and antipodean currencies rallied as equities climbed, despite oil trading around month-to-date lows; the euro climbed back above 1.13 per dollar. The pound recovered against the dollar after a dip following data that showed a record contraction of 20.4% for the U.K. economy in April. The yen weakened for the first time in five days as haven bids wane after Japanese stocks trimmed losses.

In commodities, WTI crude steadied at around $36 a barrel in New York, while Brent was trading around $39 after dropping as low as $37 overnight.

Looking at the day ahead now, the data highlights include UK GDP for April and Euro Area industrial production for April, in the US there’s the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Wunsch.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.6% to 3,057.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 355.57
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 157.07
  • MXAPJ down 1% to 504.86
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,305.48
  • Topix down 1.2% to 1,570.68
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 24,301.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.04% to 2,919.74
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 33,435.34
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.9% to 5,847.80
  • Kospi down 2% to 2,132.30
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to -0.419%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1333
  • Brent futures down 1.3% to $38.06/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.2 bps to 1.37%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.643%
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $38.06/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,734.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.53

Top Overnight News

  • The European Union’s 27 member states agreed this week to sign off on legislation that would offset the “considerable negative impact” on capital requirements from any losses on government bonds, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News that summarizes the deal
  • Germany has moved forward with the implementation of the first elements of a sweeping 130 billion- euro ($145 billion) stimulus package to help pull the country’s economy out of the worst recession since World War II
  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was due to testify Friday before prosecutors investigating the government’s failure to isolate two northern towns earlier this year, amid a bitter political tussle over handling of the coronavirus outbreak
  • North Korea accused the U.S. of breaking promises it made at a historic summit two years ago, saying the Trump administration had turned dreams for peace into “a dark nightmare” and dashed hopes for denuclearization
  • As host of this year’s Group of Seven meetings, the U.S. president gets to invite whomever he wants as guests. But his musings about including leaders from Russia, Australia, India and South Korea, while leaving out China’s Xi Jinping, have set off alarm bells in European capitals

Asian equity markets suffered losses after the bloodbath on Wall St where risk appetite collapsed due to several factors including coronavirus 2nd wave fears triggered by a surge in cases and following the recent glum outlook from the Fed, while a push back in stimulus hopes added to the depressed mood with the White House and Republicans said to not be planning formal negotiations on a fourth coronavirus stimulus package until late July. As such, the DJIA slumped by nearly 1900 points and the S&P 500 posted its worst day since March 16th with almost all its constituents closing in the red, although futures nursed some of the losses overnight after the E-Mini S&P and Mini Dow futures found a floor at the 3K and 25K levels respectively. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (-1.9%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) weakened from the open with energy and financials front running the declines in Australia and with sentiment also not helped by the souring ties with China which reportedly moved to curb coal imports by stepping up customs checks, while the Japanese benchmark briefly retreated below the 22K level before paring the majority of losses in late trade with price action at the whim of currency fluctuations. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the widespread negativity after another net liquidity drain by the PBoC and ongoing tensions between the global powerhouses as reports noted a Chinese PLA officer was arrested and charged with visa fraud as he tried to leave the US after having documented an incorrect rank on the visa application, while KOSPI (-2.0%) was also dragged by geopolitical concerns in which North Korea stated relations with US have currently shifted to despair and that it will build up a more reliable force to confront the US military threat. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid the broad losses in global stock markets and following the bull flattening seen in US, while the BoJ were also present in the market today for nearly JPY 700bln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-5yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Hedge Fund Group Says Don’t Write Off Hong Kong as Finance Hub
  • India Credit Market Has Been Stung by Bankruptcy Suspension
  • Japan Passes $298 Billion Second Extra Budget Amid Pandemic
  • Hedge Fund Oasis Sets Up Tokyo Office, Plans to Hire Analysts

A rocky start to the final European session of the week, but stock futures in the region managed to nurse initial losses of almost 2% to trade higher on the day by around a percent. Cash markets meanwhile continue to recover from yesterday’s sell-off [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%], whilst participants remain wary on a second wave resurging – with Beijing reportedly shutting down a part of its key wholesale meat market as a coronavirus related countermeasure, which came alongside two confirmed cases in the city, whilst Houston is mulling reimposing stay-at-home orders. Sectors have shifted from a more defensive bias at the cash open to a cyclical tilt – with the Energy sector going from zero to hero as the session is underway. Financials follow a close second whilst healthcare falls to the bottom of the pile. The breakdown paints a similar picture whilst mirroring yesterday’s performance. In terms of individual movers, UBI Banca (+1.5%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.4%) muster support from the lower yield environment alongside reports the Italian market regulator is likely to approve the Intesa takeover.

Top European News

  • Soft U.K. Border Checks Planned With the EU, Deal or No- Deal
  • Airlines Challenge U.K.’s Quarantine in Bid to Resurrect Travel
  • Iconic U.K. Episode of ‘Fawlty Towers’ Pulled for Racist Content
  • Sweden’s Recession Set to Be Much Milder Than Feared, SEB Says

In FX, the Dollar has clawed back some losses, with the DXY on a relatively firmer footing between 96.940-491 parameters after recent dips just below 96.000. However, sellers continue to fade rebounds in the Greenback and the Buck is still underperforming G10 counterparts aside from safer havens that soared on Thursday amidst heightened risk aversion due to second wave coronavirus concerns and spill-over from the Fed’s cautious economic outlook. Looking ahead, US import/export price data is unlikely to be pivotal in terms of direction or insight, but the more timely preliminary Michigan sentiment survey could be insightful as a gauge of economic conditions for the current month.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD/NOK/SEK - Not quite all change following yesterday’s abrupt retreat, though the Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie have all regained some composure within 0.6395-0.6472, 0.6800-0.6900 and 1.3666-1.3553 respective ranges. A degree of stability in crude and commodities is keeping the high beta and risk sensitive currencies afloat, albeit with the Aud still wary about escalating trade and diplomatic tensions between Australia and China as the latter turns its attentions to coal imports for more stringent customs scrutiny. Conversely, a fillip for the Nzd via a rebound in the manufacturing PMI, while the Cad will be eyeing Canadian Q1 capacity utilisation for some independent impetus. Elsewhere, the Scandinavian Crowns are benefiting from the mildly constructive or less destructive risk tone, as Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek reverse from 10.9300+ and 10.5500+ to nestle under 10.8500 and 10.5000.
  • GBP/EUR - Both pivoting round numbers vs the Buck and well within this week’s extremes, at 1.2600 and 1.1300, with Cable shrugging off a raft of mostly worse than expected UK data on the basis that it was widely anticipated to be bad in April during almost complete COVID-19 lockdown, but the Eur/Gbp cross elevated alongside prospects of a no deal Brexit given the ongoing stalemate and Britain sticking to its December 2020 transition deadline. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd has not really been hampered by no further Eurogroup progress on the Recovery Fund, but ran into resistance ahead of 1.1350 and could be anchored by 1.2 bn option expiry interest residing just above 1.1300 (1.1305-10) even though the headline pair has breached the 200 HMA (1.1284).
  • CHF/JPY - In contrast to all the above, safe haven unwinding has pushed the Franc and Yen off Thursday’s lofty pinnacles, as Usd/Chf bounces firmly from sub-0.9400 and Usd/Jpy circa one big figure from 106.40.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have drifted off lows now reside in positive territory as the complex nursed losses seen during APAC hours, with fears of a second COVID-19 wave weighing on the demand side of the equation during overnight trade. That being said, the benchmarks saw some support from headlines nothing that China imports of US crude are on track to reach a record level next month. In terms of Bank commentary, Barclays said it raised its oil price forecasts in which it sees Brent at USD 41/bbl and WTI at USD 37/bbl this year but remains cautious regarding the curve near-term, while it suggested the pace of recovery in oil prices is likely to slow as the steepest decline in supply and fastest improvement in demand is likely behind us. WTI futures currently reside around USD 36/bbl, having printed a current base at USD 34.50/bbl, while its Brent counterpart found overnight support at USD 37/bbl. Looking ahead to next week, the OPEC and IEA monthly oil reports will be released but focus is likely to remain on the JMMC meeting and any accompanying sources, where the committee will review secondary source data alongside current market fundamentals before proposing policy recommendations. Sources last week said that OPEC+ is to move cautiously to rebalance the market amid easing lockdowns, while anticipated Shale resumptions could also weigh on eastern producers’ minds. Participants will also give credence to compliance and how the heads of the group plan to enforce full/over-compliance – namely among the known laggards Iraq and Nigeria – who reaffirmed commitment. On that front, Iraq has already hinted at possible problems regarding making up for its shortfall, whilst compliance enforcement also remains in question as producers are to “self-police” adherence to the pact. Elsewhere, spot gold continues to grind higher amid the softer USD with prices now above its 50 DMA at USD 1729.70 as it eyes its 100 DMA at USD 1744.55/oz. Copper tracks the recovery in stocks with added impetus from a weaker Buck.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -2.6%; YoY, est. -6.4%, prior -6.8%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -3.3%; YoY, prior -7.0%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 75, prior 72.3; Current Conditions, est. 85.2, prior 82.3; Expectations, est. 69, prior 65.9

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy birthday to me today and a move firmly closer to 50 than 40. My birthday present is looking after the kids tomorrow while my wife has a covid-19 antibody test. Readers with a long memory will remember that our Xmas holiday in the Alps was ruined by my wife being ill in bed for two weeks with what we thought was awful flu. She struggled to breathe, couldn’t move without feeling shattered and lost her taste. As Covid-19 subsequently started to spread around the world we did wonder whether she was a very early victim. Clearly this test won’t prove it but it may give us some additional info. If she did have it then, it’s fascinating with regards to the timing and because the rest of us just had bad coughs at worse at the time. So possibly expect me to have wild theories about Covid-19 on Monday. All bets off if she tests negative though.

Staying with the virus, earlier this week we highlighted Robin Winkler’s excellent analysis ( link here ) on the risk of a second wave in certain US states. Well over the last 24 hours the market has certainly become much more concerned about this, with yesterday being the worst day for equities since March. In today’s pdf (click on “view report”) we show the problem US states in terms of the virus in the context of our usual case and fatality tables.

The states that look most problematic currently are California, Texas, Florida and Arizona. The first three are the largest states in terms of population in the US (combined at 90.5 million people) and all have seen growing cases rates in the last 2 weeks. While Arizona is a somewhat smaller state (7.3mn), it has the fastest growth rate in the last week. While these states have not seen the sort of case numbers that New York has (fourth in overall population and nearly 20,000 total cases per million), the total case per million for each of those states is between 2,700-4,100. This is similar to the numbers out of Italy and France and just below the U.K. even if fatalities in these states are so far relatively low. See the full tables for more.

However, unlike in European countries and New York today, cases in these states are continuing to rise. California enacted shutdowns relatively early, but has not been able to bend its curve sufficiently with daily case growth between 1.5-3% for the last 33 days. Texas and Florida both were among the first to open, and have consequently not seen the same drop in case rates as other regions that remained closed. Florida in particular seems to have seen a ‘second wave’ of sorts over the past 2 weeks. Daily cases have risen by 1.9% on average over the past 14 days, while the 14 days prior to that was 1.5% on average. Texan cases have grown by 2.3% over the last 7 days, higher than the daily case rate 2 weeks back of 2.0%. To give an idea of how things have turned in Texas, Houston may need to reopen an emergency hospital that was set up in a stadium to accommodate possible hospital overflow. Arizona is one of the most worrisome states currently, with cases rising an average of 4.6% over the last 7 days, which is considerably higher than the daily rate 2 weeks back at 3.3%.

Using the rtlive effective transmission rates (Rt) that Robin references in his note, Florida, Texas and Arizona all have R-values over 1, indicating the virus is still actively spreading. California’s Rt is estimated at 0.97, but the confidence intervals extends north of 1, meaning the virus could still be spreading rather dwindling. An additional concern from this recent spike, or in some cases a lack of plateau, is what it might mean for the seasonality argument. These are some of the warmest states in the US, and if the virus is continuing to spread there it means the northern hemisphere has to perhaps tread more carefully this summer. Finally on this, our US economics team updated their Covid-19 impact tracker last night (link here). The report notes that even as overall cases continue to fall across the US, 20 states saw an increase in the growth rate of confirmed cases over the past 7 days.

As investors assessed the chances of a second wave in the US alongside some weak economic data, yesterday saw the biggest risk-off moves for financial markets since the initial March selloff. By the end of the session the S&P 500 had completed its 3rd successive move lower with a -5.89% fall. It was the first time the broad index had retreated for 3 straight days since March 9th. The selloff was incredibly broad, with every company in the index lower on the day except one (the supermarket Kroger rose +0.40%). The S&P opened down with a slightly more than -2% gap down and then steadily sold off throughout the session, trading in a fairly tight band. This was the worst day since March 16th (-11.98%) and the fourth worst day of this Covid crisis. Overall it was the 46th worst day for the S&P 500 out of all 23,221 trading days for the index going back to January 1928. The NASDAQ was not able to hide behind the Tech outperformance, falling -5.27% yesterday. The DOW was down -6.90% with Boeing (the second worst S&P performer) leading the charge and down -16.42%. In a further sign of sentiment erosion, the VIX volatility index rose by +13.2pts to its highest level in over 6 weeks – this was also the biggest one day move in the index since March 16th.

The weakness has continued into Asia this morning however the good news is that markets are well of their lows. As we type the Nikkei is down -0.74%, Hang Seng -1.27%, Shanghai Comp -0.38%, ASX -1.77% and Kospi -2.25%. In currency markets the US dollar index is up a further +0.11% this morning after the +0.81% gain yesterday. Meanwhile, yields on 10y USTs are up +2.5bps to 0.696% and futures on the S&P 500 are up +1.17%. Elsewhere, WTI oil prices are down -1.82% to $35.66.

In terms of the various snippets of newsflow overnight, North Korea has accused the US of breaking promises it made at a summit two years ago, saying the Trump administration had turned dreams for peace into “a dark nightmare” and diminished hopes for a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In Europe, the head of the Single Resolution Board in Brussels warned against using taxpayer’s money to rescue lenders that were barely surviving before the coronavirus pandemic. She also said that proposals from some European officials to set up an EU-wide bad bank to buy soured loans are premature and probably unworkable because they’d hand a manager a “hodgepodge” of assets while adding, “I’m not very much convinced that a broad bank that is then collecting from everywhere is a manageable solution.”

Moving on. Even with fears of a second wave, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said in a CNBC interview yesterday that “We can't shut down the economy again. I think we've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage”. There’s little doubt that the US response to this virus has been far less coordinated than the EU’s even if the latter has been done by independent governments. When history writes the book on this pandemic it’ll be interesting as to which is economically better in the long-run. Chaos but with more short-term activity vs control but a deeper initial slump. The answer probably won’t be black and white, but without a vaccine the virus will either have to die out naturally, be totally suppressed by control, or we will have to revisit the concept of herd immunity at some point. I don’t think any of us can safely say which is the best long term strategy yet, although many will have very strong opinions.

Back to markets and looking at yesterday’s moves in more detail, energy companies led the equity declines (-9.45% in US and -6.19% in Europe) against the backdrop of serious falls in oil prices. In fact, both Brent (-7.62%) and WTI (-8.23%) each had their worst day in over 6 weeks, something that could well mean that this week finally sees the end to a run of 7 weekly gains. Oil-producing currencies took a hit too, with both the Norwegian Krone (-3.25%) and the Russian Ruble (-2.49%) weakening noticeably against the US dollar. There were smaller declines in Europe, as the US equity market continued to fall after Europe had closed. The STOXX 600 (-4.10%), the DAX (-4.47%) and the CAC 40 (-4.71%) all moved sharply lower. European banks were -7.04% with US banks -9.61% not helped by the zero for longer Fed message the previous night.

The big move away from risk saw investors move strongly into safe assets, with yields on 10yr Treasuries falling by -5.7bps, as those on 10yr bunds fell by -8.3bps. Periphery debt widened yesterday with both Spanish and Italian debt more than +3bps wider to German bunds. In FX markets, the safe haven Swiss Franc (-0.04% against USD) and the Japanese Yen (+0.23%) were the two strongest performing G10 currencies, while the dollar itself climbed +0.81% yesterday, following a run of 9 declines in the last 10 sessions. Highlighting the greenback and US equity correlation, the dollar had not rallied that much in one day since 19 March, the same week the S&P last fell as much as it did yesterday.

In terms of data, weekly initial jobless claims from the US fell to 1.542m (vs. 1.550m expected) in the week ending June 6th. Although this is the 10th consecutive weekly decline in the number of initial claims, more concerning was the dip in the number of continuing claims for the week ending May 30 to 20.929m, this was above the 20m reading expected, with the insured unemployment rate only falling to 14.4%, down just two-tenths from the previous week’s revised 14.6%. Taken together the report added to concerns that the improvements in labour markets as lockdowns are eased might not be as strong as many might have hoped for following last week’s jobs report.

In Europe, we got some further Brexit news yesterday as the FT reported that the long-awaited high-level talks between the two sides would be taking place this coming Monday. This will feature Prime Minister Johnson for the UK, along with European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Michel for the EU. This meeting is one that’s been planned for some time but further news broke later that more intense talks will follow over the next several weeks. Overnight, Bloomberg has reported that the UK’s Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove will today detail a plan that will have the country introduce a temporary light-touch customs regime at its border with the European Union next year. The report suggests that the new light-touch border checks will come into force whether or not the UK and EU reach a new trade deal at the end of the year.

Wrapping now up with yesterday’s other data. Italian industrial production fell by -19.1% in April (vs. -24.0% expected), which follows a -28.4% decline in March. We also got US PPI data for May, which saw final demand producer prices rise +0.4% month-on-month (vs. +0.1% expected), rebounding from a -1.3% decline in May.

To the day ahead now, the data highlights include UK GDP for April and Euro Area industrial production for April, while from the US there’s the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Wunsch.

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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