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Futures Slump Ahead Of Powell Speech

Futures Slump Ahead Of Powell Speech

US futures dropped as investors waited to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will differentiate himself…



Futures Slump Ahead Of Powell Speech

US futures dropped as investors waited to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will differentiate himself from hawkish comments made by two policy makers on Monday when he speaks later at an event in Sweden at 9am ET. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped to session lows around 7:15am ET after trading little changed for much of the overnight session. Traders are also reluctant to take strong directional bets before US inflation data is published on Thursday and visibility clears up on the trajectory of interest rates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was near session after trading earlier in a tight range, while the rest of the currencies in the Group of 10 were mixed. Treasuries also broke out above a range, hitting session highs around 3.57% around the time stocks stumbled. Oil rose with gold and Bitcoin rallying for a seventh-straight day.

Among US premarket movers, Virgin Orbit slumped as much as 27%, putting the stock on track for its biggest drop since June 2022, after the failure of a rocket that Richard Branson’s satellite company launched from a Boeing 747. Among winners, Oak Street Health rose 33% after Bloomberg reported that drugstore operator CVS is exploring an acquisition of the primary care provider, in a deal which could exceed $10 billion, including debt. Shares in Frontline, listed both in the US and Norway, surged as much as 20% in Oslo after the shipping giant controlled by billionaire John Fredriksen walked away from its plans to acquire Belgium’s Euronav, which dropped 21% on the news. Bed Bath & Beyond shares also jumped as much as 20%, poised to continue its rebound from the previous session, ahead of its earnings report and after the troubled home furnishings retailer saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Boeing stock slides 2.7% as Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the planemaker to equal-weight from overweight, saying the stock is now approaching fair value following recent outperformance.
  • Frontline (FRO US) shares surge 22% after the company said it wouldn’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator Euronav. The decision not to proceed follows opposition from Belgium’s Saverys family - a major holder in Euronav.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares jump 20%, poised to continue their rebound from the previous session before its earnings report. The troubled home furnishings retailer also saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P.
  • HP Enterprise shares were down 1.9% after Barclays downgraded them to equal-weight, taking a cautious view on IT hardware stocks in 2023 given a challenging macro backdrop. The broker also cut NetApp (NTAP US) and upgraded Keysight (KEYS US) shares.
  • Barclays expects a difficult 1H for US software stocks as estimates still look too high, even if valuation levels are “interesting.” The broker upgrades DoubleVerify (DV US) and Confluent (CFLT US), cuts Dynatrace (DT US).
  • RBC anticipates a challenging start for US software stocks in 2023, which will eventually give way to “green shoots” of optimism. The broker outlines its top picks in the sector and cuts Box (BOX US) to underperform.
  • Watch Chemours (CC US) after the stock was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC on expectations that a challenging fourth quarter for the chemicals firm will feed into the first half of 2023.
  • Keep an eye on PPG Industries (PPG US) as it was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC with limited upside seen for the paint-maker’s stock amid expectations that volumes will come under pressure.

Sentiment was dented on Monday, as a 1.4% gain in the S&P was fully reversed, after the San Francisco and Atlanta Fed presidents poured cold water on hopes that monetary tightening would soon ease off by calling for interest rates to rise above 5% and staying there, a scenario strategists believe would be negative for stock markets. It's also what they have been saying for months, but the market is always happy to keep pricing in the same flashing red headline as if it was new.

"Sentiment is torn between the fear of missing out good news on inflation and, by opposite, angsts the Fed will be stubborn in its fight against inflation which reinforces the risk of a recession,” said Sarah Thirion, a Paris-based strategist at TP ICAP Europe. Fears about Covid in China and the trend of corporate guidance which will be unveiled during the next earnings season are also weighing on stocks, Thirion said.

"The same pattern keeps emerging, with investors clinging onto any data which appears to show the economy is cooling off, only to see their hopes dashed by policymakers who clearly believe the inflation-busting job is far from over,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Thursday’s US inflation report, which will come out almost a week after the latest jobs data showed wage growth has decelerated, will be among the last such readings Fed policy makers will see before their Jan. 31-Feb. 1 gathering.

European stock markets, which have outperformed Wall Street since September, were also in a cautious mood with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6% after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Retailers, industrials and miners are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable European movers:

  • Orsted gains as much as 4.1% after being named among preferred picks in the renewables space by both Morgan Stanley and Exane.
  • Card Factory jumps as much as 9.4% after raising full-year pretax profit guidance in a trading update. Liberum said the greetings-card retailer delivered another “impressive” update.
  • Plus500 gains as much as 3% after giving an update for the year-end, with Liberum saying the trading platform saw an “excellent” performance in FY22.
  • AO World rises as much as 18% after raising guidance for FY adjusted Ebitda. Jefferies says the update shows that efforts to cut costs and improve margins are working.
  • European staffing stocks drop following a warning from UK recruiter Robert Walters and with Dutch peer Randstad downgraded by Degroof
  • Euronav slumps 21% after Frontline said it won’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator.
  • Husqvarna falls as much as 4.6%, the most since Dec. 15, after Danske Bank cut its recommendation to hold from buy, expecting a “challenging” first half of 2023.
  • Kahoot shares fall as much as 18%, the most since November, after the company published below-forecast fourth- quarter preliminary adjusted Ebitda on weak macro conditions.
  • Games Workshop falls as much as 6.9% after reporting 1H results that Jefferies said contained highs and lows, highlighting the challenges flagged by management.

Optimism for the region is rising with economists at Goldman Sachs no longer predicting a euro-zone recession after the economy proved more resilient at the end of 2022, natural gas prices fell sharply and China abandoned Covid-19 restrictions earlier than anticipated. GDP is now expected to increase 0.6% this year, compared with an earlier forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. Economists led by Jari Stehn warn in a report to clients of weak growth during the winter given the energy crisis, and say headline inflation will ease faster than thought, to about 3.25% by end-2023. As reported previously, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett said a new era may have started with the ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Stoxx Europe 600 breaking its 100-week moving average, a support that has held strong for more than a decade.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as Chinese equities halted their rally, which had pushed a key regional benchmark to a bull market, amid profit-taking and renewed caution on the Fed’s rate-hike path.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.3% as of 4:17 pm in Singapore, dragged lower by Alibaba and Ping An Insurance. Trading volume was about 4% lower than the three-month average, according to data complied by Bloomberg. Tuesday’s breather comes as Asia’s benchmark index a day earlier entered bull territory, driven by China’s reopening and a weakening dollar that lured investors back to the region after facing a downward spiral for much of 2022.  Benchmarks in Hong Kong posted moderate losses while stock gauges in India, Singapore and Indonesia dropped more than 1%. Indonesian stocks were on track to enter a technical correction as investors looked to cash out from one of Asia’s hottest markets for 2022.

Japanese equities climbed as traders returned from a holiday; as investors assessed the impact of China’s reopening and US job data that showed slower-than-expected average wage growth. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,880.88 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.8% to 26,175.56. Daikin Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 5.3%. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 1,092 rose and 953 fell, while 117 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks benefited from the belief that the Fed’s next rate hike will be more moderate,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “China’s reopening has a positive impact on Japanese stocks, and inbound demand will resume once regulations around Chinese tourists are eased.”

“After the sharp rally, Asian markets could see a bout of profit taking amid headwinds from tighter financial conditions and no respite in Fed rate-hike outlook,” said Nitin Chanduka, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.  Two Fed officials said the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. Still, the recent rally in Chinese equities may have more legs as consumption-driven firms drive the reopening rebound further and China shifts its focus to economic growth. Investors expect a strong 2023 for both Chinese stocks and the yuan as Asia’s largest economy bucks the global trend of weakening expansion. Morgan Stanley turned even more bullish on the market, raising price targets further and expecting China to top global equity-market performance in 2023.  “We remain of the view that Asian investors should use this volatility in 1Q23 as an opportunity to raise exposure,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia equity strategist at Nomura Holdings. 

Australian stocks nudged lower after Fed speakers dampened risk sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,131.00 as investors assessed hawkish commentary from Fed officials. The retreat halted the benchmark’s four-day run of gains. Miners and banks were the biggest drags on Tuesday. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,665.26

Stocks in India resumed a decline after bellwether Tata Consultancy’s quarterly earnings showed increasing caution over technology spending amid an uncertain economic outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1% to 60,115.48 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by an equal measure. Both the gauges are close to extending their losses from peak levels last month to 5% as investors resort to profit-taking at the start of the earnings season. Sixteen of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-gauges declined, led by telecom companies, while Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on the Sensex, plunging 1.5%. Tata Consultancy Services closed 1% lower after its net income for the fiscal third quarter trailed estimates. Foreign investors have been sellers of local shares this month, taking out about $602 million through Jan. 6 after $167m of outflows in December.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index jumped near session highs after the greenback initially slipped against most of its Group-of-10 peers. The dollar finds itself at a make-or-break technical moment, with its two-year rally under threat as key US inflation data looms.

  • The euro rose to a daily high of around $1.0750 in European session. The euro hit fresh cycle highs Monday and options pricing is coming to reflect a more constructive outlook in the short-term. Bunds and Italian bonds dropped, underperforming Treasuries
  • The Canadian dollar was steady. USD/CAD’s downward path is being refueled in the options space as traders position for an extended period of US dollar weakness
  • The Australian dollar was the worst G-10 performer. Sovereign bonds inched up
  • The yen was steady at 131.80 per dollar. Tokyo’s inflation outpaced forecasts to hit 4% for the first time since 1982, suggesting the underlying price trend is stronger than expected by economists, a factor that could further fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will adjust policy again

In rates, Treasuries ease lower, following wider losses across core European rates amid supply pressures and ahead of a Riksbank conference on central bank independence where ECB’s Schnabel, BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell are all scheduled to speak. US 10-year yield around 3.56%, cheaper by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 2.5bp and 2bp; long-end Treasuries outperformance flattens 5s30s by 1.5bp vs Monday’s close.  Front-end and intermediates lead slight losses in Treasuries, flattening 5s30s spread. After Powell appearance, the year's first auction cycle begins at 1pm ET with $40bn in 3-year new issue, followed by $32b 10-year, $18b 30-year reopenings on Wednesday and Thursday.  European bonds are also in the red with Bund futures underperforming their UK counterparts. The Gilt curve bear steepens with 2s10s widening 2.1bps.

In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier drop to trade higher. WTI Has added 0.5% to trade near $75.00. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade near $1,877/oz.

Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.

Looking to the day ahea, at 9 a.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an event hosted by the Swedish central bank. Other speakers include  BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. An hour later, we’ll get the latest data on wholesale inventories. At 10:30 a.m., President Joe Biden will meet Canada’s Justin Trudeau, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland at 1:30 p.m. The US will sell $40 billion 3-year notes at 1 p.m.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,896
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 445.05
  • MXAP little changed at 161.72
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 534.27
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 26,175.56
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,880.88
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 21,331.46
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,169.51
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 60,097.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,131.00
  • Kospi little changed at 2,351.31
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0751
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.73/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.74/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,876.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.06

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Cost pressures in corporate Germany appear to be easing, with fewer companies planning price increases during the coming months. Price expectations for the whole economy fell to 40.3 points in December from 46.2 points the previous month, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute published Tuesday
  • Back in October equities and bonds were breaking from their normal settings to move together far more tightly than at almost any stage in history. Since then, the ties have only become tighter, as the prospects of an end to Fed rate hikes helps to drive gains for both Treasury futures and S&P 500 contracts
  • East European nations started 2023 with a flurry of dollar issuance, putting the region on track for a record year as it rediscovers the foreign-debt market beyond its traditional euro-denominated sales
  • Deflationary pressure in China worsened in the fourth quarter as the economy slumped, with price-growth likely to be subdued even when the economy rebounds later this year, according to China Beige Book International
  • Egypt’s urban inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in five years as several rounds of currency devaluation filtered through to consumers

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the risk appetite in the region stalled following a similar handover from Wall St where the major indices failed to sustain early gains despite a further dovish Fed repricing. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in industrials and mining stocks, although price action was rangebound amid the lack of any major fresh drivers. Nikkei 225 outperformed as it played catch-up to Monday’s advances on return from the extended weekend but with upside capped as participants also reflected on weak Household Spending and firm Tokyo CPI data releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the border reopening euphoria faded and despite reports that China will cut VAT for small businesses, while the PBoC also continued to drain liquidity.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese state media noted that the COVID-19 wave is past its peak in many parts of China.
  • China's embassy in South Korea stopped issuing short-term visas for Korean citizens visiting China and said it will adjust policy subject to the lifting of South Korea's discriminatory entry restrictions against China, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the embassies in Japan took the same step.
  • China's State Planner publishes registration rules for mid- & long-term foreign borrowings by companies, aimed at promoting orderly offshore financing.
  • PBoC is to increase financial support for domestic demand and the supply system, to guide the balance sheets of high-quality real estate enterprises back to a safe range, ensure steady and orderly property financing.

European bourses are underpressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow. US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell. Amazon (AMZN) intends to close three UK warehouses (will impact 1,200 jobs), according to the PA.

Top European News

  • ECB's Schnabel says greening monetary policy requires structural changes to our monetary policy framework rather than adjustments to our reaction function. Preliminary inflation data for December point to a persistent build-up of underlying price pressures even as energy price inflation has started to subside. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive.
  • Adyen, Nexi to Be Hit by Weaker Card Spending, Barclays Says
  • Teneo Is Said to Near Deal to Buy British PR Firm Tulchan
  • RBC Sees Good Growth For European Luxury and Premium Brands
  • Uniper Says CEO and COO to Resign After Government Takeover


  • Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
  • Kiwi marginally outperforming as Aussie retreats with Yuan after some Chinese officials warn about 2-way volatility in 2023.
  • AUD/NZD cross reverses towards 1.0800 from 1.0860+, USD/CNH bounces from 6.7585 to almost 6.8000.
  • Euro consolidates on a 1.0700 handle vs Buck, but Pound runs into resistance pips from 1.2200
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7611 vs exp. 6.7613 (prev. 6.8265)

Fixed Income

  • Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
  • Bunds sub-137.00 and very close to Monday's base, Gilts mostly under 102.00 and T-note below par within a 114-19+/11 range.
  • Focus on Central Bank speakers at a Riksbank symposium where ECB's Schnabel has already been hawkish.
  • Saudi Arabia has begun marketing a three-part USD bond, via Bloomberg.


  • Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
  • Barclays remains constructive on the space reiterating its Brent 2023 forecast of USD 98/bbl; writing there is the potential for USD 15-25/bbl of downside if the slump in global manufacturing worsens..
  • Goldman Sachs cut its Summer 2023 TTF price forecast by EUR 80 to EUR 100/MWh, citing exceptionally warm realised and forecast weather, as well as strong energy conservation.
  • Iraq's December crude production was unchanged from November at 4.43mln BPD; in-line with its OPEC+ quota.
  • Large Chinese nickel producer Tsingshan is in talks with struggling Chinese copper plants regarding processing its material which could double Chinese refined nickel output this year, according to
  • LME says further work will be required to prepare and communicate to the market a detailed implementation plan re. the Oliver Wydman review.
  • Spot gold and silver are diverging a touch and remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark in similarly narrow ranges, base metals are generally contained though the negative APAC bias remains in play.


  • US Pentagon is mulling sending Stryker armoured vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Politico.
  • UK is willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine with PM Sunak supportive of Challenger II supply that could provide Ukrainian President Zelensky with a ‘knockout punch’, according to The Telegraph.
  • Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says Moscow will develop its nuclear triad and be the main guarantee of Russian sovereignty, according to Interfax.


  • Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: Dec. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.8; est. 91.5, prior 91.9
  • 10:00: Nov. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
  • 10:00: Nov. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 05:10: Bailey, Schnabel, Macklem Speak in Stockholm
  • 09:00: Powell Discusses Central Bank Independence at Riksbank Event

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets looked set to start the week off with a positive start across the globe yesterday until the last hurdle as the S&P 500 slipped around 1.5% from the European close to end -0.07%. The narrative explaining the reversal centred around more hawkish Fed speak but short-end markets didn’t move at all over this period so one has to be cautious on the reasons for the dip.

For the record though, Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that the Fed was committed to raising interest rates into a “5-5.25% range” and then holding there through 2024 in order to stamp down on excess demand in the economy. The length of time and the implication that rate cuts were not imminent seems to have been what the market grabbed on to, and this mirrors the comments from the FOMC minutes earlier this month, which indicated the Fed’s concern over a “pause” being mistaken by the market as a “pivot”. Bostic also was in favour of slowing rate hikes to 25bps in February if the inflation print on Thursday showed consumer prices cooling after the payrolls data last Friday showed slowing wage growth. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that she expected the fed funds rate to reach above 5% but that the final level is dependent on incoming inflation data, while highlighting how core services ex-housing has been a persistent source of pricing pressures. Neither Fed presidents are voting members this year, but offer a window into the FOMC’s thinking but as we said, Fed pricing was also little changed after these comments.

Those remarks come ahead of Fed Chair Powell today, who’ll be speaking at an event on central bank independence at 14:00 London time. It’s uncertain whether the topic in question will lead to an in-depth policy discussion, but if we do get any, a key question will be whether he entertains the prospect of a further downshift in the pace of rate hikes to 25bps. That’s currently the base case in markets, but clearly the CPI release on Thursday will be an influence on this and to future FOMC meetings too.

Most of the US session was more about pricing in less Fed hikes over the coming months with the 10yr yield down -2.59bps to 3.532% (fairly flat in Asia this morning). Investors also continued to downgrade their expectations for further hikes from the Fed, with the year-end rate at just 4.44%, down -4.2bps on the day. Those moves were given a further boost by data from the New York Fed, whose data on inflation expectations showed that 1yr expectations fell to a 17-month low in December of 5.0%. That said, the news wasn’t quite as positive when it came to longer time horizons, with 3yr expectations remaining at 3.0%, and 5yr expectations ticking up a tenth to 2.4%.

Even though US equities gave up gains, Tech stocks outperformed with yields lower, with both the NASDAQ (+0.63%) and particularly the FANG+ index (+2.41%) holding on to larger gains. Tesla (+5.9%) was the best performing member of the large-cap index and reduced its YTD losses to -2.77%. And back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.88%) continued to move higher, bringing its 2023 YTD gains to +5.52%, and marking out European equities as one of the top 2023 performers so far.

However, one area that struggled yesterday were European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.8bps) and OATs (+1.1bps) both rising, even if both had come off their earlier session highs. That followed data showing that Euro Area unemployment remained at a record low of 6.5% in November, which points to a historically tight labour market that could lead to further wage and hence inflationary pressures. Gilts were one of the biggest underperformers, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps on the day amidst a speech from BoE chief economist Pill. In his remarks, he said that “the distinctive context that prevails in the UK… creates the potential for inflation to prove more persistent”.

In terms of currencies, the US Dollar index (-0.85%) weakened to its lowest level since early June, which brings its declines to almost -10% (-9.73%) since its peak in late-September, back when the UK mini-budget turmoil was at its height and global markets were selling off more broadly. This decline in the dollar very much leans into our strategists’ latest FX blueprint, where they write that various forces such as a reversal in the European energy shock and the economic reopening in China have bearish implications for the dollar with a target of $1.15 by year-end (current $1.07). You can read their full piece here.

That dollar weakness went hand-in-hand with noticeably tighter CDS spreads for most of the day, hitting levels we haven’t seen in months. For instance in Europe, the iTraxx Crossover tightened -8.4bps to 417bps, meaning it’s now more than -250bps beneath its own peak in late-September and the tightest since April. Meanwhile in the US, the CDX HY spread was down -10bps to 438bps at one point, its tightest level since August, before the late turn in risk assets saw CDX HY spreads wider (+1.9bps) on the day. A reminder that we revised our already bullish Euro Q1 credit spreads forecasts tighter over the weekend. See the piece here.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.34%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.18%) and the CSI (-0.10%) lower whilst the KOSPI (+0.31%) and Nikkei (+0.76%) are edging higher with the latter reopening following a public holiday. DM stock futures are pricing in a weaker start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.28%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) and the DAX (-0.85%) all trading in the red.

Early morning data showed broadening signs of inflationary pressures in Japan after Tokyo’s core consumer prices advanced +4.0% y/y in December - the fastest pace in four decades and beating market expectations of a +3.8% gain and against a +3.6% increase last month. With the core inflation figure staying above the BOJ’s 2% price target for the seventh consecutive month, it further heightens the possibility of an additional rise in the nationwide CPI.

There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday, although German industrial production grew by +0.2% in November (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month’s decline was revised to show a larger -0.4% contraction (vs. -0.1% previously).

To the day ahead now, and there are an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for November, and in the US there’s the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/10/2023 - 08:08

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…



BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
  • Aging Facebook
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  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
  • Aging Pinterest
  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…



NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…



  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  


Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400


The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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