US equity futures extended last week's post-payrolls slump, and as of 730am ET traded -0.2% at 3,646, having bounced off the session's worst levels down as much as -1%, while European stocks fell for the fourth straight day as concerns mounted that central bank policy-tightening would send the global economy into a hard landing (as Michael Hartnett warned) taking a heavy toll on the global economy and company earnings. The dollar extended its gains while bonds were closed for trading on the Columbus Day bond market holiday; cryptos were flat.
The semiconductor sector saw an across-the-board hit from Washington’s decision to further restrict exports of cutting-edge chips and chipmaking tools to China, adding to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand. Europe-listed Infineon, STMicro and OSRAM dropped, while in premarket New York trade, chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices shed more than 1% each. Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech index plunged as much as 4.1% after fresh US tech curbs send Chinese semiconductor stocks tumbling. Mainland shares fall after a week-long break as Caixin services PMI returns to contraction territory and reports show sharp slide in holiday spending.
In premarket trading, Ford shares dropped 3.9% after a downgrade to sell at UBS due to weak profit margins. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM US) falls 3% after being cut to neutral from buy, with UBS seeing “demand destruction” for its EV segment after a strong start. Kraft shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, as Goldman upgrades the stock to buy and downgrades home/personal care “bellwether” P&G to neutral, adding more food exposure within US consumer staples coverage. Here are other notable premarket movers:
- Rivian (RIVN US) falls as much as 7.6% in premarket trading after the EV maker said it will recall about 13,000 vehicles it delivered to customers after discovering a minor structural defect.
- Grab Holdings (GRAB US) falls as much as 2.9% in US premarket trading after Barclays initiates coverage of the ride-sharing and delivery provider at equal-weight, questioning whether the business can continue to thrive as lower income levels and saying car ownership in Southeast Asia may have implications for longer-term profitability.
- US-listed Chinese stocks drop in premarket trading, with sentiment hurt by weak holiday spending data during the Golden Week and new Covid flareups across the country one week before the key Communist Party congress.
- Alibaba (BABA US) -1.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) -1.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -2.1%, JD.com (JD US) -1.9%, Bilibili (BILI US) -5.6%
- US-listed Macau casino operators drop in New York premarket trading after Citigroup cut its estimate of Macau’s gross gaming revenue in October to 5.5 billion patacas from 7 billion patacas, citing disappointing revenue during the first nine days of this month.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) shares -3.1%, Melco Resorts (MLCO US) -1.7%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -2.2%, MGM Resorts (MGM US) -1.2%
- Keep an eye on Meta (META US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US), as Morgan Stanley trimmed its price targets on the stocks citing low visibility for the digital ads market. Even so, the brokerage expects October to be strong for the sector, given continued efforts to pull forward consumer holiday demand.
While the bond market is closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday and there is no macro on deck Monday, an action-packed week lies ahead, with inflation data due Thursday and the third-quarter earnings season kicking off in earnest. Hotter-than-expected CPI growth would heap pressure on policy makers to extend 75 basis-point rate hikes beyond this year. Minutes of the latest Fed policy meeting on Wednesday may provide insight into where the pain threshold lies for Fed officials, who are so far resolutely hawkish in their message that neither financial-market volatility nor the threat of an economic downturn will deter them from raising rates. Investors are also bracing for disappointment from the coming earnings season, with more than 60% of the 724 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Pulse poll predicting the season would push the S&P 500 Index lower.
The poll underscored Wall Street’s fear that even after this year’s brutal selloff, stocks have not priced all the risks stemming from central banks’ aggressive tightening and stubbornly high inflation. Over the weekend, Goldman's David Kostin warned that the soaring dollar could hammer corporate earnings. While JPMorgan, Citigroup and other big banks report this week, iPhone maker Apple is in particular focus as its report is expected to offer insight into themes ranging from global consumer demand to the impact of dollar strength.
“The narrative will start changing from central banks and inflation, to one of weaker growth and downward earnings revisions that is going to weigh on risk sentiment over coming weeks,” Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar wrote in a note.
Doubling down on his relentless pessimism, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warned that the bear market in US stocks won’t be over until earnings forecasts are cut further or share valuations better reflect the risks.
European stocks declined for the 4th day in a row; the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.8%. DAX outperforms peers, dropping 0.2%, CAC 40 lags, retreating 0.9%. Consumer products, tech and utilities are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Renault shares jump as much as 6.8% as analysts highlight press reports saying the French carmaker and Japanese partner Nissan are in talks to reshape their two decade-old alliance.
- DS Smith jumps as much as 12% after its trading update noted strong revenue growth and “effective cost mitigation,” which analysts said is set to trigger consensus upgrades to FY23 Ebita. Its paper-packaging peers Mondi and Smurfit Kappa also advanced.
- Unite Group’s shares rose as much as 4.2% after a trading update that Peel Hunt said shows robust demand, with a return of students en masse driving full occupancy and an uplift to 2023/24 rental growth guidance.
- Deutsche Bank shares rise as much as 3.4%, the most in the Stoxx 600 Bank Index, after Kepler Cheuvreux says it expects 3Q earnings to beat consensus.
- Credit Suisse shares gained as much as 3.7% after Bloomberg News reported that its SPG unit has drawn interest from bidders including Pimco and Centerbridge.
- ASML shares drop 3.2% as European semiconductor stocks continue to slide on Monday, after the US announcement of more restrictions on exports of cutting- edge chips and chipmaking tools to China added to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand.
- Stocks including SSE, Drax and Centrica post the biggest declines in the utilities sub-sector after the Financial Times reported the UK government is pushing ahead with plans to cap renewable electricity revenues with legislation that could be unveiled next week. Drax drop as much as -6.5%
- Casino shares slumped as much as 13% to a fresh all-time low after S&P lowered its credit rating on the French grocer, saying the company faces added pressure on its ability to refinance its debts because of the tougher retail environment in France.
In Britain, the Bank of England stepped up its measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week. The UK central bank said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion ($10.8 billion), from £5 billion previously. However, UK long-dated bonds shrugged off the news, with 10-year yields rising 6 basis points.
Focus is also training on Italy where the yield premium demanded by investors to hold Italian debt compared to Germany has surged to the highest since 2020, after ratings agency Moody’s warned of the need to keep national debt on a sustainable path.
Earlier in the session, equities across Asia declined Monday as strong US jobs data quelled hopes for a less hawkish Fed, while China traders returning from holiday added to the selling pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.4%, falling to its lowest in a week. Consumer discretionary and financials were the biggest drag. China’s CSI 300 closed at its lowest since April 2020 as bleak consumption data and lockdown fears gripped traders as markets reopened after a week-long break. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and the Philippines were among the worst decliners in the region after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to a historic low, bolstering the case for another 75 basis point hike by the Fed. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan markets were closed for a holiday. The data and comments from Fed officials recently are “throwing cold water on the idea of a Fed pivot,” Nomura strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a note.
While a much-softer-than-expected US CPI reading this week may lead to a stock rally, “it will likely not last as the market -- and the Fed -- will want to see a series of low monthly inflation readings before expecting a definite pause,” they added. US consumer inflation data will be released Thursday, helping set the tone for the Fed’s decision early next month. Traders are also turning their attention to the latest earnings season and China’s Covid restrictions ahead of the much-awaited party congress in mid October
Australian stocks tumbled the most in two weeks as the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to 6,667.80 after strong US jobs data bolstered bets for more aggressive Fed hikes. The Australian benchmark dropped the most since Sept. 26 as all sectors retreated. Banks and miners contributed the most to the gauge’s decline. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.7% to 10,918.48.
Stocks in India extended their decline to a second day as investors booked profits in some of the recent sectoral outperformers, including consumer goods firms. Software makers were the top performers ahead of the start of the sector’s quarterly results season. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 57,991.11, its biggest single-day drop since Oct. 3. The NSE Nifty 50 Index ended 0.4% lower after paring a plunge of as much as 1.4%. All but two of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by consumer durables makers. Tata Consultancy Services will kick-start the earnings season for the September quarter later on Monday. The software exporter’s shares advanced 1.8%. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.1%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 11 rose, while 19 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers.
- The euro dropped below 0.97 per dollar. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility.
- The pound fell against a broadly stronger dollar, edging lower to trade around 1.10 against the dollar, but rallied against the euro. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility
- The yen traded below 145 per dollar. One-week implied volatility in the dollar-yen has fallen to trade well below highs seen last month, even as the currency pair closes on 145.90 -- a level that triggered a near $20 billion intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The Japanese currency has fallen for eight weeks in a row, its longest-losing streak since May
- The Aussie slid to the weakest level in more than two years after stronger-than-expected US payroll numbers on Friday boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes
In rates, treasury futures drifted lower led by ultra-long contracts following a wider steepening move across the UK gilt curve with cash bond trading closed for Columbus Day in the US. Futures are lower by up to 23 ticks in the ultra-long bond contracts which lead losses on the session; 10-year note futures are lower by 3 ticks trading around 111-12 and inside Friday session range. UK gilts are cheaper by up to 16.5bp across 30-year sector, while UK long-end real yields surge ahead of Tuesday’s 2051 linker sale. US auctions resume Tuesday with 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday. UK bonds also declined, led by long-end; 30-year yield rises above 4.5%. Bunds 10-year yield rises ~3bps to 2.16%. UK bonds fell even after the Bank of England stepped up measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week.
In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday. WTI dipped below $92, down 0.7% after last week’s 17% gain, while Brent traded just around $97. French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters. Spot gold fell roughly $14 to trade near $1,681/oz; it traded lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz. Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
Bitcoin is on a softer footing and remains under the USD 19,500 mark whilst Ethereum holds onto 1,300 status.
There is nothing on today's US economic calendar; Fed speakers include Evans and Brainard.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,625.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 388.37
- MXAP down 1.4% to 140.77
- MXAPJ down 1.9% to 454.16
- Nikkei down 0.7% to 27,116.11
- Topix down 0.8% to 1,906.80
- Hang Seng Index down 3.0% to 17,216.66
- Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,974.15
- Sensex down 0.8% to 57,712.89
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 6,667.75
- Kospi down 0.2% to 2,232.84
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
- Euro down 0.6% to $0.9688
- Brent Futures down 0.8% to $97.11/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,680.29
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.42% to 113.27
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- The Biden administration’s new restrictions on technology exports to China could undercut the country’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons
- Missiles struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early Monday, two days after an attack on a key bridge to Crimea that Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed on Ukraine
- Norway’s inflation hit a new 34-year high last month, in a development that may boost expectations of another half-point hike by Norges Bank in November. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.9% in September, above the median projection of 6.2% in Bloomberg analyst poll, and the central bank’s forecast of 6%
- The Danish island of Bornholm, located in the Baltic Sea near the Nord Stream pipelines, was been hit by a complete power failure on Monday, broadcaster DR reported, citing the local energy company
- Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament on Monday, paving the way for elections this year as his ruling party seeks to strengthen its position following a run of successful local polls
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were negative in a holiday-thinned start to the week with market closures in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while the region digested a contraction in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the recent stronger-than-expected US jobs data which paves the way for the Fed to continue with its hawkish normalisation. ASX 200 was led lower by gold miners and tech stocks after the post-NFP rise in yields and with risk appetite also not helped by a deterioration in the AIG Services Index. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with Hong Kong pressured by notable losses in the tech sector after the US recently announced new curbs on exports to China on certain tools essential for high-end chip production. Furthermore, sentiment was also dampened following the PBoC’s largest weekly net drain in eight months and after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs fell into contraction territory, although losses in the mainland are somewhat cushioned following the return of participants from a week-long holiday.
Top Asian News
- PBoC injected CNY 17bln via 7-day reverse repos for CNY 594bln net daily drain on Saturday and injected CNY 2bln through 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Sunday which resulted in the largest net weekly drain in eight months. PBoC also injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Monday, according to Reuters.
- PBoC noted that it issued CNY 400bln via MLF during September and outstanding MLF loans fell to CNY 4.55tln at end-September vs. CNY 4.75tln at end-August, while it issued a total of CNY 969mln via SLF in September and its outstanding PSL was at CNY 2.65tln at end-September vs CNY 2.54tln at end-August, according to Reuters.
- PBoC survey found that 53% of bankers believe Q3 monetary policy is appropriate and 45.8% believe Q3 monetary policy is loose, according to Reuters.
- China was placed on high alert amid increases in COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party Congress, according to FT.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US is abusing trade measures to maintain technological hegemony following the recent announcement of controls targeting Chinese chip manufacturers, according to Reuters.
- China's Shanghai requires arrivals to take three COVID tests within three days, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses have kicked the week off on the backfoot as the negativity from last Friday has continued into this week. Sectors in Europe are predominantly softer with the exception of Retail and Telecoms. To the downside, Consumer Products, Tech and Utilities lag. Stateside, futures are softer across the board but to a lesser extent than European peers.
Top European News
- UK Cabinet Office Minister Zahawi said it is extremely unlikely that Britain will have planned power cuts over the winter, according to Reuters.
- UK PM Truss is prepared to listen to Conservative critics who oppose proposals to raise benefits by less than inflation, according to Telegraph sources.
- Retailers in London’s West End warned that the capital faces a consumer growth slowdown with footfall in London’s main shopping area remaining about a fifth lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to research by New West End Company cited by FT.
- DXY extends on Friday's gains with the index back above the 113.00 mark with a current intraday peak of 113.31, with G10s softer vs the USD to varying degrees.
- EUR/USD tested 0.9700 to the downside from a high just over 0.9750 and retreated further from decent option expiry interest spanning 0.9800-55 (around EUR 2.8bln).
- AUD sits as the current laggard with China's sub-50 PMIs overnight adding to the pressure, whilst USD/CNH topped 7.1500.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0992 vs exp. 7.1215 (prev. 7.0998).
- Turkish President Erdogan said the CBRT will keep cutting rates every month for as long as he is in power, according to Reuters.
- Bunds and US Treasuries are off best levels amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and an upturn in overall risk sentiment that has perked up hitherto weak Italian bonds.
- Gilts are still deeply underwater with the BoE remaining on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday.
- French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold has been ebbing lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz.
- Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
- Kumba Iron Ore declared a force majeure due to strike action; export sales will be impacted by around 120k tonnes per day.
- Ukrainian media reported a large explosion at the Kerch bridge in Crimea where a fuel tank was on fire at one of the sections of the bridge, while there were comments from a Ukrainian presidential adviser who called the bridge explosion ‘the beginning’ and said ‘everything illegal must be destroyed’ but did not directly claim responsibility, according to Reuters.
- Russian President Putin described the Crimea bridge explosion as an act of terrorism which Ukraine is responsible for and he ordered tighter security for the Crimea bridge, as well as the infrastructure supplying electricity and natural gas to Crimea, according to Reuters and Interfax.
- Russian investigative committee head said the blast on the Crimea bridge was prepared by Ukrainian special services, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russian government spokesperson Peskov said it is wrong to consider the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge as a reason for the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Ria Novosti.
- White House national security spokesman Kirby said US President Biden’s “Armageddon” warning was not based on any new intelligence and reflects the very high stakes that are currently in play. Kirby also stated that Russian President Putin started the war and could end it simply by moving troops out of Ukraine, while he added the US will continue offering security assistance to Ukraine, according to The Guardian and Reuters.
- Explosions were reported across several Ukrainian cities on Monday morning including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Ternopil. Explosions were also reported near Ukrainian President Zelensky's office in Kiev, according to Al Arabiya citing Russian press.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia used Iranian drones in Monday's attacks on Ukraine, according to AFP.
- Belarus and Russia to form a joint regional grouping of troops, according to Belta citing Belarussian President Lukashenko.
- Taiwan President Tsai said they must stand up for democracy and prepare prudently and sufficiently to respond to any possible contingency, while she added that they are sending a message to the international community that Taiwan will take responsibility for its self-defence. Tsai also stated that they want to make clear that armed confrontation is absolutely not an option for both sides and they look forward to the gradual resumption of the healthy and orderly cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, thereby easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
- China's Foreign Ministry, responding to Taiwan's President's national day speech, says Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory and China will never leave any space for separatists or independence.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing Scheduled
Central Bank speakers
- 09:00: Fed’s Evans Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago
- 13:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
For those remembering my pre-match nerves from Friday, I won my 36 hole matchplay final yesterday and was absolutely over the moon. There is a big cup and my name goes on the honours board for hopefully a few generations. The first name on the board won this cup in 1910! In the morning round I had 6 birdies, including 4 in a row. I’d never done either of those things before in probably somewhere around a thousand rounds since I started playing at about 11 years old. My whole body aches this morning though and my sciatica has flared up a little. However it was all worth it. Sorry, boast over now but outside of work this is all I have been thinking and stressing about for the last few weeks! I can now return to exclusively stress about which way markets are going.
After another volatile week, it’s a quieter week for data with one ginormous exception. Yes all roads to and from will all center around US CPI on Thursday. Over the last few months Fed expectations have generally risen with this number and markets have consistently sold off. However there have been a few strong counter-trend rallies on either the perception of a coming Fed pivot or on hopes of being near peak inflation. All have so far been ultimately reversed but the potential for Thursday to dominate the next few weeks of trading is high. Before we delve into some of the details, US PPI and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the UoM inflation expectations and US retail sales (Friday) are the other key events Stateside. It’s Columbus Day in the US today with bond markets shut but equities open. It should be quiet but Fed VC Brainard is speaking later today to keep us on our toes. Finally in the US, results from key banks will kick off the earnings season later in the week before the deluge over the subsequent 2-3 weeks.
Elsewhere across the globe, we will also get inflation and trade data from China (Friday) and the PPI for Japan (Thursday). In Europe, the UK will be in the spotlight with an array of economic indicators due, including labour market data (tomorrow) and monthly GDP (Wednesday). After the dramatic aftermath of the UK mini-budget, there will also be some focus on Italy’s draft budget that is supposed to be submitted to the EC by Saturday. Clearly any signs of it being too expansionary could be a red rag to markets increasingly concerned about debt sustainability in pockets of the DM world with yields this high.
A quick early preview of the US CPI number now. Our economists highlight that with gas prices down another near 7% from August to September, energy will again drag on the headline CPI print (+0.28% forecast vs. +0.12% previously). However, core CPI (+0.44% vs. +0.57%) will draw the most focus especially given last month’s upside surprise. Assuming their forecasts are correct, year-over-year headline CPI should continue to decline, falling two-tenths to 8.1%, while core should tick up two-tenth to peak at 6.5%. This is in line with consensus. Whether one number should be the basis for huge swings in markets, it seems inevitable that a notable miss on core on either side could bring about big moves in trading over the coming weeks so stand by.
As mentioned at the top, US Q3 earnings season will kick off with results from major US banks on Friday, including JPMorgan, Citi and Morgan Stanley. Consumer-focused companies like PepsiCo (Thursday), Domino's Pizza and Delta (both Friday) will also be in focus. TSMC reports on Thursday amid concerns of oversupply in some pockets of the semiconductor industry. The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual.
Over the weekend, the war in Ukraine saw another landmark event after the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was partially destroyed by an explosion, disrupting the most crucial supply line for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine. In a video address, President Putin on Sunday accused Ukrainian special services of being behind the attack on the bridge, calling it a “terrorist attack”. Meanwhile, President Putin has tightened security for the bridge and for energy infrastructure between Russia and Crimea and will Chair a meeting with his national security council today. We will have to carefully watch Putin’s and Russia’s response in a conflict where the risks of a major escalation are increasing.
Overnight in Asia equity markets are slipping and further extending a global equity sell-off in thin trading this morning. The Hang Seng (-2.44%) is leading losses with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.34%) also trading in negative territory on their return after the Golden Week holiday. Chinese semiconductor equities slumped after the US announced fresh export controls on semiconductors to Chinese companies, limiting the nation’s ability to buy and manufacture high-end chips used in AI and supercomputing. In addition, the Caixin Chinese services PMI for September contracted for the first time in four months, falling to 49.3 from 55.0 in August as Covid-19 containment measures disrupted supply and demand while dimming business confidence. Elsewhere, markets in Japan and South Korea are closed for holiday.
In overnight trading, the risk-off mood has persisted in US equities with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.48%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.51%) both moving lower after a tumultuous week. European futures are also down.
Looking back at last week, it was a tale of two halves. The first half of the week saw yet another attempt at the Fed (and other CB) pivot narrative and a huge risk on alongside an initial sharp rates rally. By the second half of the week global central bank officials said ‘not so fast’, holding their line and leading to a drift tighter in financial conditions via higher yields and lower equities. The back and forth led to another volatile week in global markets.
Diving into the specific numbers. 10yr Treasury and Bund yields increased +5.3bps (+5.8bps Friday) and +8.6bps (+10.9bps Friday), respectively, after hitting intraday levels of -27.1bps and -33.7bps for the week on Tuesday.
Major equity indices danced to the same tune. The S&P 500 finished +1.51% higher, but that marked a steep fall (-2.80% on Friday alone) from its intraweek heights of +6.15% on the week when it appeared the Fed policy pivot was in full play. Fed speakers in the back half of the week had plenty to say about that, with New York Fed President invoking the current SEP median showing policy rates at 4.6% by the end of next year as a reasonable base case, with some of the more typically dovish members of the Committee considering even higher policy rates. Likewise, the STOXX 600 finished the week +0.98% (-1.18% Friday), having pulled back -2.82% from its intraday week peak.
10yr gilts exhibited a similar pattern, after the government retreated from the higher income tax cuts, with 10yr gilts +14.5bps higher on the week (+6.9bps Friday), having been -35.5bps lower as of Tuesday. 30yr gilts marched steadily higher over the week despite the broader pattern in sovereign yields, as BoE purchases of the sector slowed dramatically, with yields climbing +56.8bps (+8.5bps Friday) to 4.39%. Still below the dizzying heights reached following the initial release of the fiscal plan but otherwise the highest since 2011.
In data Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased +263k in the US in September, close to +255k consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% with a decline in labour force participation to 62.3% from 62.4%. The move tighter along with the contraction in supply fed the building end of week narrative against any Fed policy pivot. Underscoring the point, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index rose to 2.89% to end the week. Not the sort of numbers that will get the Fed to ease anytime soon.
Plan will put everyone in England within 15 minutes of green space – but what matters is justice not distance
The UK government wants every household in England to be within 15 minutes walk of a park, woodland or water.
How long does it take you to walk to your nearest park, woodland, lake or river? If it takes more than 15 minutes, according to the UK government’s new environmental improvement plan for England, something needs to be done about it. It says 38% people in England don’t have a green or blue space within a 15-minute walk of their home.
The plan promises a “new and ambitious commitment to work across government and beyond” to provide access to local green and blue spaces. It recognises the importance of connecting with nature, and that time spent outdoors is good for physical and mental health.
That’s a message researchers have been underlining for years, as a recent evidence review shows, and it has been amplified by COVID-19, which showed the importance of local green and blue spaces for wellbeing.
But the plan’s laudable ambitions overlook the ways our experiences of the outdoors are shaped by privileges of wealth and health.
If you live in a disadvantaged area, your local green space may be further away from your home, or you might have to share it with more people. As the campaign group Fields in Trust pointed out in a 2022 report, this is a question of justice.
However, there’s more to justice than the amount of space you have to share with others, or how long it takes you to get there. It’s also about how you feel and what you can do when you get there.
My own research highlights some key questions we need to ask if we’re to protect and improve our green spaces for future generations. Questions such as “Do I feel welcome here?” “Does this space meet my needs?” or “Do I get a say in how it is looked after?” highlight the fact that access is a matter of equality and democracy.
Some green spaces are greener than others
There are three key aspects of green and blue spaces that should be considered, and invested in, if the environmental improvement plan is to be more than wishful thinking.
First, not all green and blue spaces are the same or provide the same benefits. The qualities of a football pitch are very different from those provided by a woodland walk along a stream.
Lumping them all together as “green and blue spaces” overlooks the need for a variety of spaces within easy reach to meet local people’s needs for physical and mental wellbeing.
Second, not all spaces are equally well looked after. Spaces that are fly-tipped or associated with antisocial activities can feel intimidating, especially after dark.
Green and blue spaces in disadvantaged areas need more care, and that requires time and money. As Public Health England noted, access to good quality green spaces is worse in more disadvantaged areas.
Third, simply being in a space won’t necessarily bring you all the benefits a space can offer. For people suffering from anxiety or depression, for example, more structured activities might be more helpful.
Be like Birmingham
In Birmingham, the local authority isn’t content with trumpeting the merits of its 600 parks. Instead, the city has developed a city of nature plan (I was part of a team that evaluated it).
At the heart of its approach is the idea of environmental justice, which it defines as “the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, colour, national origin, or income, with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies”.
To apply environmental justice to the city’s green spaces, Birmingham Council has assessed each of its 69 electoral ward in terms of access to green space of two hectares (about three football pitches) or more within 1,000 metres, as well as flood risk, urban heat island effects, health inequalities and deprivation.
Through this work, it has identified 13 of its 69 wards which are most in need of investment to reach a new “fair parks standard”. These mainly central areas have less accessible green space, are more at risk of flooding and urban heating, and are more deprived.
Starting with a pilot programme in Bordesley & Highgate Ward (setting for the BBC series Peaky Blinders), the plan is then to invest in a further five priority areas in central and east Birmingham: Balsall Heath West, Nechells, Gravelly Hill, Pype Hayes and Castle Vale.
This is the kind of approach that could guide investment in many other cities. It links funding with equalities and brings together climate change, public health and community issues. It shows that quality and equity can’t just be boiled down to the distance between your home and the nearest park.
The challenge now is to learn from Birmingham’s pioneering approach and apply similar principles elsewhere. At its best, this work can be used to highlight the challenges not only of applying resources equitably, but of ensuring the resources are there in the first place, an issue the environmental impact plan rather predictably glosses over.
Julian Dobson and colleagues were funded by the National Trust and National Lottery Heritage Fund to evaluate the Future Parks Accelerator programme. The views expressed here are the author's own.depression covid-19 treatment uk
UN Initiative Targets And Doxxes Doctors And Nurses Who Don’t Follow COVID-19 Narrative
UN Initiative Targets And Doxxes Doctors And Nurses Who Don’t Follow COVID-19 Narrative
Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis…
Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Nicole Sirotek is a registered nurse in Nevada with over a decade of experience working in some of the harshest conditions. When a hurricane devastated Puerto Rico, Sirotek and the organization she founded, American Frontline Nurses (AFLN), were there and gave out over 500 pounds of medical equipment and supplies.
She hasn’t hesitated to be the first in when an emergency hits and medical professionals are needed. She’s lost count of the number of times she’s woken up on a cot in the middle of nowhere, boots still strapped to her feet, and ready to go.
But in tears during an interview with The Epoch Times, she detailed her ordeal with harassment and doxing over the past year and how she’s contemplated suicide due to crippling anxiety and depression.
“It took such a toll on my mental health. I wasn’t sleeping and wasn’t eating,” Sirotek said.
To regain her mental health, she decided to step back from the group she started. But even that decision brought pain.
“I said after I left New York, I’d do everything that I can to make sure it didn’t happen again,” Sirotek said, recalling the death she witnessed when she volunteered in New York as a nurse at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. “I mean, for me to step back and take a break just makes me feel like I failed!”
Sirotek is the victim of ongoing harassment. She’s received pictures of her children posed in slaughterhouses and hanging from a noose, drive-by photos of her house, and letters with white powder that exploded upon opening.
The Nevada State Board of Nursing was inundated with calls for Sirotek’s professional demise and flooded with anonymous complaints.
In response, Sirotek filed a police report. Her lawyer sent a cease-and-desist letter. The Epoch Times reviewed the documents.
The reply from the cease-and-desist letter? The client was acting within his First Amendment rights.
The Harassment Begins
In February 2022, Sirotek, as the face of AFLN, a patient advocacy network that boasts 22,000 nurses, appeared before Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and testified about the harm patients were experiencing when they sought treatment for COVID-19.
She said she didn’t witness patients dying from the novel virus when she volunteered to work the front lines in New York at the start of the pandemic.
Instead, in her opinion, as a medical professional with multiple master’s degrees, patients were dying from “negligence” and “medical malfeasance.”
Sirotek detailed the withholding by higher-ups of steroids and Ibuprofen and the prescribing of remdesivir. Additionally, there was zero willingness to consider possible early intervention treatments like ivermectin.
As the pandemic continued, such practices only escalated, Sirotek said.
Sirotek’s testimony resulted in cheers, widespread attention, and a target on her back.
“[The harassment] all started the day we got back from DC,” Sirotek said.
At first, the attacks started with the typical “you’re transphobic, you’re anti-LGBTQ. I mean, they even called me racist,” Sirotek, who is Hispanic, recalled.
And as more patients sought AFLN’s help, the attacks increased in frequency and force.
At first, Sirotek said the attacks appeared to come from random people. But as the attacks continued, the terms “Project Halo,” “Team Halo,” and “#TeamHalo” continually cropped up. Especially on TikTok and from two accounts, “@jesss2019” and “@thatsassynp.”
“[@thatsassynp] just kept on saying how I was spreading misinformation, [that] ivermectin doesn’t work,” Sirotek said. “He kept targeting the Nevada State Board of Nursing because I was on the Practice Act Committee, and he did not feel like that was acceptable.”
Craig Perry, a lawyer representing nurses, including Sirotek, before the Nevada State Board of Nursing, confirmed Sirotek’s account. The executive director of the Nevada State Board of Nursing, Cathy Dinauer, declined to provide details on complaints or investigations, stating to The Epoch Times via email that they are “confidential.”
Sirotek said the complaints overwhelmed her ability to defend her nursing license.
“Untimely, they were filing so many complaints against me that [the Nevada State Board of Nursing] had to start filtering them as to what was applicable and not applicable. And [the complaints] just buried my nursing license to the point that we couldn’t even defend it,” Sirotek said.
Attacks Transition to Threats
Whenever Sirotek, or AFLN, tried to set up a community outreach webinar, hateful comments flooded their videos.
Julia McCabe, a registered nurse and the director of advocacy services for AFLN, told The Epoch Times that initially, they tried kicking the trolls out of the outreach videos. But they couldn’t keep up with the overwhelming numbers and had to shut the videos down, usually after only 10 minutes, she said.
To address the swarms, as McCabe labeled them, AFLN started charging an entrance fee for their webinars. But, McCabe said, they’d send out an email with a free access code to all of their subscribers before the webinar started. It helped, but not enough. The swarms kept coming. And the attacks escalated.
On June 5, 2022, @thatsassynp posted a video on TikTok calling for a “serious public uprising,” because the Nevada State Board of Nursing and other regulatory agencies weren’t disciplining nurses for spreading “disinformation.”
It became one of many such videos in the ensuing days. In the comments of one, he stated, “Also, stay tuned as [@jesss2019] will be addressing this as well. We are teaming up (as per usual) to raise awareness and demand action on this issue.” @jesss2019 responded, “Yes!!!! We will get this taken care of.”
Jess and Tyler Kuhk of @thatsassynp have “teamed up” on several occasions, targeting healthcare workers who question the COVID-19 narrative. Team Halo doesn’t officially list Kuhk on its site, but Kuhk posts with the #teamhalo.
In another video, he states, “If you’re new to this series, PLEASE watch the videos in my playlist ‘Nevada board of nursing.’ This started in Feb of this year.” His video has almost 35,000 “loves.”
On June 7, 2022, @jesss2019 posted a video on TikTok accusing Sirotek of spreading misinformation. It included a link to @thatsassynp, and his complaints about Sirotek to the Nevada State Board of Nursing and calls to remove her from the Practice Act Committee. She implored TikTok to boost the message. It, too, became one of many videos attacking Sirotek.
Specifically, @jesss2019 and @thatsassynp took issue with videos and posts from Sirotek, and AFLN, advocating for ivermectin and highlighting possible issues with remdesivir and the COVID-19 vaccines.
@jess2019 removed all of the above videos after The Epoch Times sought comment. The Epoch Times retains copies.
Sirotek says she received the first death threat against herself and her children around the same time, in June 2022.
“They cut off the pictures of my children’s faces from our family photos, where we take them every year on our front porch—we’ve got 11 years of those photos—and they cut them out and put them on the bodies of those little boys that have been sexually abused. And that’s what would get sent to my house. And I gave the police that,” Sirotek said.
In response to a request for comment from The Epoch Times, Sen. Johnson defended Sirotek.
“The COVID Cartel continues to frighten and silence those who tell the truth and challenge their failed response to COVID,” Johnson said. “It is simply wrong for Ms. Sirotek to be smeared and attacked like so many others who have had the courage and compassion to successfully treat COVID patients.”
As the threats continued and escalated, Sirotek also asked Perry to send a cease-and-desist letter to Tyler Kuhk on Aug. 1, 2022.
Kuhk, a nurse practitioner, is the person posting on TikTok under the pseudonym @thatsassynp.
The letter sent to Kuhk alleges that on at least 10 different occasions, @thatsassynp encouraged a “public uprising” against Sirotek. It also details that his videos attacking Sirotek garnered over 400,000 views.
In response, McLetchie Law, a “boutique law firm serving prominent and emerging … media entities” responded to Perry by stating in a letter dated Aug. 16, 2022, “Both Nevada law and the First Amendment provide robust protections for our client’s (and others’) rights to criticize Ms. Sirotek’s dangerous views and practices—and to advocate for her removal from the Nursing Practice Advisory Committee of the Nevada State Board of Nursing.”
It also warned that any attempt to deter Kuhk from his chosen path would “backfire” and could result in a “negative financial impact.” Neither Kuhk nor McLetchie Law responded to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.
Unable to confirm the real name behind the TikTok account @jesss2019, and thus, unable to send her a legal letter, Sirotek posted some of the threats she’d received on Facebook, pleading for @jesss2019 to cease targeting her, and recognize the possible real-world harm.
In desperation, Sirotek asked Perry to file a legal name change, which he did on Sep. 15, 2022, hoping that would thwart people’s ability to look up Sirotek’s information. Perry told The Epoch Times, “Usually, when you do a name change, it’s a public record. But under extenuating circumstances, you can have that sealed.”
In Sirotek’s case, the court recognized the threat to her and her family’s safety, waived the publication requirement, granted the change, and sealed her record on Oct. 4, 2022.
Sirotek, at the behest of Perry, filed a police report detailing the harassment on Oct. 17, 2022.
In December 2022, @jesss2019 posted a video to TikTok doxing Sirotek by revealing her name change. The Epoch Times sought comment from @jesss2019 but has not received a response. After the request for comment, the user removed the video.
Team Halo and Social Media
On Dec. 17, 2020, Theo Bertram, a director at TikTok; Iain Bundred, the head of public policy at YouTube; and Rebecca Stimson, the UK head of public policy for Facebook, appeared before the UK’s House of Commons to explain what their social media sites were doing to combat “anti-vaccination disinformation.”
All three stated their companies employed a “two-pronged approach.” Specifically, “tackle disinformation and promote trusted content.”
Bundred stated that from the beginning of the year to November 2020, YouTube had removed 750,000 videos that promoted “Covid disinformation.”
Stimson stated that between March and October 2020, “12 million pieces of content were removed from [Facebook],” and it had labeled 167 million pieces with a warning.
Bertram stated that for the first six months of 2020, TikTok removed 1,500 accounts for “Covid violation” and had recently increased that activity. “In the last two months, we took action against 1,380 accounts, so you can see the level of action is increasing,” Bertram said.
“In October, we began work with Team Halo,” Bertram added. “I do not know if you are familiar with Team Halo. It is run by the Vaccine Confidence Project at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and is about getting reliable, trusted scientists and doctors on to social media to spread trusted information.”
Team Halo’s Origins
On Sep. 20, 2022, Melissa Fleming, the under-secretary-general for global communications at the United Nations, appeared at the World Economic Forum to discuss how the United Nations was “Tackling Disinformation” regarding “health guidance” as well as the “safety and efficacy of the vaccine” for COVID-19.
“A key strategy that we had was to deploy influencers,” Fleming stated. “Influencers who were really keen, who had huge followings, but really keen to help carry messages that were going to serve their communities.”
Fleming also explained that the United Nations knew its messaging wouldn’t resonate as well as influencers, so they developed Team Halo.
“We had another trusted messenger project, which was called Team Halo, where we trained scientists around the world, and some doctors, on TikTok. We had TikTok working with us,” Fleming said. “It was a layered deployment of ideas and tactics.”
Read more here...
Why Is There A COVID Vaccine Mandate For Students?
Why Is There A COVID Vaccine Mandate For Students?
Authored by Margaret Anna Alice via ‘Through The Looking Glass’ Substack,
Letter to the…
Letter to the Stanford Daily: Why Is There a COVID Vaccine Mandate for Students?
“Not to know is bad. Not to wish to know is worse.”
I can’t figure out why Stanford is mandating the COVID vaccine for students.
Is it to protect students from the virus, hospitalization, or death?
Is it to protect them from other students?
Is it to protect the Stanford community members from the students?
If it’s to protect the students from catching COVID, that doesn’t make sense because the CDC says it “no longer differentiate[s] based on a person’s vaccination status because breakthrough infections occur.”
The CDC also acknowledges natural immunity, noting that “persons who have had COVID-19 but are not vaccinated have some degree of protection against severe illness from their previous infection.”
It appears Stanford didn’t get the memo because Maxwell Meyer—a double-jabbed, COVID-recovered alum who was nearly prohibited from graduating for choosing not to get boosted—was informed by an administrator that the booster mandate is “not predicated on history of infection or physical location.”
Despite living 2,000 miles away from campus and not being enrolled in coursework for his final term, Maxwell was told Stanford was “uniformly enforc[ing]” the mandate “regardless of student location.” Does that sound like a rational policy?
Fortunately, a different administrator intervened and granted Maxwell an exemption, but few Stanford students are so lucky. Almost everyone else simply follows the rules without realizing they’ve volunteered for vaccine roulette.
A Cleveland Clinic study of the bivalent vaccines involving 51,011 participants found the risk of getting COVID-19 increased “with the number of vaccine doses previously received”—much to the authors’ surprise.
They were stumped as to why “those who chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations on remaining updated with COVID-19 vaccination” had a lower risk of catching COVID than “those who received a larger number of prior vaccine doses.”
So if the vaccines don’t keep you from getting COVID, maybe they at least protect you from hospitalization?
That doesn’t wash, either, because according to data from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), hospitalization rates for 18–64-year-olds have increased 11 percent since the vaccine rollout. Worse, kids under 18 have suffered a shocking 74 percent spike in hospitalizations.
An observational study conducted at Germany’s University Hospital Wuerzburg found:
“The rate of adverse reactions for the second booster dose was significantly higher among participants receiving the bivalent 84.6% (95% CI 70.3%–92.8%; 33/39) compared to the monovalent 51.4% (95% CI 35.9–66.6%; 19/37) vaccine (p=0.0028). Also, there was a trend towards an increased rate of inability to work and intake of PRN medication following bivalent vaccination.”
A new paper published in Science titled Class Switch Towards Non-Inflammatory, Spike-Specific IgG4 Antibodies after Repeated SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination even has Eric Topol concerned:
Late after mRNA Covid vaccines, or with booster or breakthrough infections, there is a shift to IgG4 antibodies, not seen with adenovirus vector vaccines. The clinical significance is not knownhttps://t.co/5thLxRwemm @SciImmunology @UniFAU pic.twitter.com/YozSLVjVLd— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 22, 2022
If you don’t know what that means, Dr. Syed Haider spells it out in this tweet. He explains that the shots “train your immune system to ignore the allergen by repeated exposure,” the end result being that “Your immune system is shifted to see the virus as a harmless allergen” and the “virus runs amok.”
Latest IgG4 COVID vax study— Dr. Syed Haider (@DrSyedHaider) December 28, 2022
Think allergy shots. They train your immune system to ignore the allergen by repeated exposure.
That’s what repeated shots with the vax are doing.
Your immune system is shifted to see the virus as a harmless allergen.
Which means: virus runs amok.
Well, then does the vaccine at least prevent people from dying of COVID?
Nope. According to the Washington Post, “Vaccinated people now make up a majority of COVID deaths.”
At Senator Ron Johnson’s December 7, 2022, roundtable discussion on COVID-19 Vaccines, former number-one–ranked Wall Street insurance analyst Josh Stirling reported that, according to UK government data:
“The people in the UK who took the vaccine have a 26% higher mortality rate. The people who are under the age of 50 who took the vaccine now have a 49% higher mortality rate.”
Obtained by a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to KBV (the association representing physicians who receive insurance in Germany), “the most important dataset of the pandemic” shows fatalities starting to spike in 2021.
Data analyst Tom Lausen assessed the ICD-10 disease codes in this dataset, and the findings are startling. His presentation includes the following chart documenting fatalities per quarter from 2016 to 2022:
This parallels the skyrocketing fatality rates seen in VAERS:
The vaccinated are more likely to contract, become hospitalized from, and die of COVID. If the vaccine fails on all of those counts, does it at least prevent its transmission to other students and community members?
The obvious answer is no since we already know it doesn’t prevent you from getting COVID, but this CDC study drives the point home, showing that during a COVID outbreak in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, “three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons.”
Maybe Stanford can tell us why they feel the mandate is necessary. Their booster requirement reads:
“Why does Stanford have a student booster shot requirement? Our booster requirement is intended to support sustained immunity against COVID-19 and is consistent with the advice of county and federal public health leaders. Booster shots enhance immunity, providing additional protection to individuals and reducing the possibility of being hospitalized for COVID. In addition, booster shots prevent infection in many individuals, thereby slowing the spread of the virus. A heavily boosted campus community reduces the possibility of widespread disruptions that could impact the student experience, especially in terms of in-person classes and activities and congregate housing.”
The claim that “booster shots enhance immunity” links to a January 2022 New York Times article. It seems Stanford has failed to keep up with the science because the very source they cite as authoritative is now reporting, “The newer variants, called BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, are spreading quickly, and boosters seem to do little to prevent infections with these viruses.”
Speaking of not keeping up, that same article says the new bivalent boosters target “the original version of the coronavirus and the Omicron variants circulating earlier this year, BA.4 and BA.5.”
It then goes on to quote Head of Beth Israel Deaconess’s Center for Virology & Vaccine Research Dan Barouch, who says, “It’s not likely that any of the vaccines or boosters, no matter how many you get, will provide substantial and sustained protection against acquisition of infection.”
In other words, Stanford’s rationale for requiring the boosters is obsolete according to the authority they cite in their justification.
If Stanford is genuinely concerned about “reduc[ing] the possibility of widespread disruptions that could impact the student experience,” then it should not only stop mandating the vaccine but advise against it.
Some nations have suspended or recommended against COVID shots for younger populations due to the considerable risks of adverse events such as pulmonary embolism and myocarditis—from Denmark (under 50) to Norway (under 45) to Australia (under 50) to the United Kingdom (seasonal boosters for under 50).
The Danish Health Authority explains why people under 50 are “not to be re-vaccinated”:
“People aged under 50 are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19. In addition, younger people aged under 50 are well protected against becoming severely ill from covid-19, as a very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected with covid-19, and there is consequently good immunity among this part of the population.”
Here’s what a Norwegian physician and health official had to say:
“Especially the youngest should consider potential side effects against the benefits of taking this dose.”
—Ingrid Bjerring, Chief Doctor at Lier Municipality
“We did not find sufficient evidence to recommend that this part of the population [younger age bracket] should take a new dose now.… Each vaccine comes with the risk for side effects. Is it then responsible to offer this, when we know that the individual health benefit of a booster likely is low?”
—Are Stuwitz Berg, Department Director at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health
A new Nordic cohort study of 8.9 million participants supports these concerns, finding a nearly nine-fold increase in myocarditis among males aged 12–39 within 28 days of receiving the Moderna COVID-19 booster over those who stopped after two doses.
This mirrors my own findings that myocarditis rates are up 10 times among the vaccinated according to a public healthcare worker survey.
Coauthored by MIT professor and risk management expert Retsef Levi, the Nature article Increased Emergency Cardiovascular Events Among Under-40 Population in Israel During Vaccine Rollout and Third COVID-19 Wave reveals a 25 percent increase in cardiac emergency calls for 16–39-year-olds from January to May 2021 as compared with the previous two years.
The paper cites a study by Israel’s Ministry of Health that “assesses the risk of myocarditis after receiving the 2nd vaccine dose to be between 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000 in men of age 16–24 and 1 in 120,000 in men under 30.”
A Thai study published in Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease found cardiovascular manifestations in 29.24 percent of the adolescent cohort—including myopericarditis and tachycardia.
“[W]e need to be upfront that nearly every intervention has some risk, and the coronavirus vaccine is no different. The most significant risk is myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, which is most common in young men. The CDC cites a rate of 39 myocarditis cases per 1 million second doses given in males 18 to 24. Some studies found a much higher rate; a large Canadian database reported that among men ages 18 to 29 who received the second dose of the Moderna vaccine, the rate of myocarditis was 22 for every 100,000 doses.”
All over the world, prominent physicians, scientists, politicians, and professors are asking pointed questions about illogical mandates; the safety and efficacy of the vaccines; and the dangers posed by the mRNA technology, spike protein, and lipid nanoparticles—including in the UK, Japan, Australia, Europe, and the US.
Formerly pro-vaxx cardiologists such as Dr. Aseem Malhotra, Dr. Dean Patterson, and Dr. Ross Walker are all saying the COVID vaccines should be immediately stopped due to the significant increase in cardiac diseases, adverse events, and excess mortality observed since their rollout, noting that, “until proven otherwise, these vaccines are not safe.”
Dear Prime Minister @RishiSunak,— Dr Aseem Malhotra (@DrAseemMalhotra) December 18, 2022
YOU have the power to stop the ongoing unnecessary harm that is devastating individuals and families. @Keir_Starmer the Labour Party also lost one of its most decorated doctors @KailashChandOBE to this mRNA product. Please stop this roll out NOW https://t.co/SECbfK9joz
BREAKING:— Dr Aseem Malhotra (@DrAseemMalhotra) December 16, 2022
President of the international vascular society raises concerns about covid vaccines in relation to cardiovascular problems.
‘It would be great if someone can show us the light of where to go from here’
We must pause the mRNA jab now to stop more unnecessary harm pic.twitter.com/gIZr19SVl8
And now, perhaps most notably, Dr. John Campbell has performed a 180-degree turn on his previous position and is saying it is time to pause the mass vaccination program “due to the risks associated with the vaccines”:
A Rasmussen poll published on December 7, 2022, found 7 percent of vaccinated respondents have suffered major side effects—a percentage that echoes the 7.7 percent of V-Safe users who sought medical care as well as my own polling data.
Add the 34 percent who reported experiencing minor side effects, and you have nearly 72 million adults who’ve been hit with side effects from the vaccine.
Rasmussen Head Pollster Mark Mitchell explains:
“With 7% having a major side effect, that means over 12 million adults in the US have experienced a self-described major side effect that they attribute to the COVID-19 vaccine. That’s over 11 times the reported COVID death numbers. And also note that anyone who may have died from the vaccine obviously can’t tell us that in the poll.”
“The Pfizer and Moderna trials are both showing a clear signal of increased risk of serious adverse events among the vaccinated.…
“The trial data are indicating that we’re seeing about an elevated risk of these serious adverse events of around 1 in 800 people vaccinated.… That is much, much more common than what you see for other vaccines, where the reported rates are in the range of 1 or 2 per million vaccinees. In these trials, we’re seeing 1 in every 800. And this is a rate that in past years has had vaccines taken off the market.…
“We’re talking about randomized trials … which are widely considered the highest-quality evidence, and we’re talking about the trials that were submitted by Pfizer and Moderna that supported the regulators’ authorization.”
Dr Peter Doshi senior editor of the BMJ wants to know why we haven't already #StoptheShots when 1 in 800 are seriously harmed, yet previous vaccines were suspended for harming 'only' 1 in 100'000.— Porridge2022 (@porridge2022) December 16, 2022
Beats me too! pic.twitter.com/llT4JwL5WQ
And this is the same Pfizer data the FDA tried to keep hidden from the public for 75 years.
Nothing to see here … except 1,223 deaths, 158,000 adverse events, and 1,291 side effects reported in the first 90 days according to the 5.3.6 Cumulative Analysis of Post-Authorization Adverse Event Reports—and those numbers are likely underreported by a factor of at least 10 (my conservative calculations show an underreporting factor (URF) of 41 for VAERS).
Stanford is asking students to risk a 1 in 800 chance of serious adverse events—meaning the kind of events that can land you in the hospital, disable you, and kill you. And for what?
Anyone who knows how to perform a cost-benefit analysis can see this is all cost and zero benefit.
Stanford’s own Dr. John Ioannidis—professor of medicine, epidemiology & population health, statistics, and biomedical data science—demonstrated that college students are at a near-zero risk of dying from COVID-19 in his “Age-Stratified Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in the Non-Elderly Population.”
One of the six most-cited scientists in the world, Ioannidis found the median IFR was 0.0003 percent for those under 20 and 0.002 percent for twenty-somethings, concluding the fatalities “are lower than pre-pandemic years when only the younger age strata are considered” and that “the IFR in non-elderly individuals was much lower than previously thought.”
And yet Ioannidis’s employer is mandating an experimental product with extensively documented risks of severe harm.
What if a Stanford student dies and the coroner determines it was caused by the vaccine? That happened with George Watts Jr., a 24-year-old college student whose cause of death Chief Deputy Coroner Timothy Cahill Jr. attributed to “COVID-19 vaccine-related myocarditis.” Cahill says, “The vaccine caused the heart to go into failure.”
“We are revoking our vaccination policy and will no longer require students, employees, and visitors to be vaccinated to come to campus.”
The timing is interesting, don’t you think? I’m sure it’s just a coincidence—even though this Clinical Research in Cardiology paper determined vaccine-induced myocardial inflammation was the cause of death in “five persons who have died unexpectedly within seven days following anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination.” In that analysis, the authors “establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.”
Coincidences notwithstanding, Stanford may want to revoke the mandate before anything like that happens to one of its students … if it hasn’t already.
“Mandating COVID-19 vaccines under an EUA is legally and ethically problematic. The act authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs requires the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to specify whether individuals may refuse the vaccine and the consequences for refusal. Vaccine mandates are unjustified because an EUA requires less safety and efficacy data than full Biologics License Application (BLA) approval.”
Dr. Naomi Wolf delivered an impassioned speech to her alma mater, Yale, in which she called their booster mandate “a serious crime. It is deeply illegal. Certainly, it violates Title IX.” She explains:
“Title IX commits the university to not discriminate on the basis of sex or gender in getting an equal education.… I oversee a project in which 3,500 experts review the Pfizer documents released under court order by a lawsuit. In that document, there is catastrophic harm to women! And especially to young women! And especially to their reproductive health.… 72% of those with adverse events in the Pfizer documents are women!”
Other universities are currently facing lawsuits for mandating the COVID vaccine in violation of state laws, including one against Ohio University, University of Cincinnati, Bowling Green State University, and Miami University of Ohio.
Abundant evidence proves the vaccines FAIL to:
prevent contraction of COVID
lower hospitalization rates
By the same token, this evidence shows the vaccines are ASSOCIATED with:
heightened transmission levels
greater chances of catching COVID
increased hospitalization rates
higher excess mortality
disproportionate injuries to women
Why is Stanford mandating these unsafe and ineffective products, again?
If logic, peer-reviewed studies, and legal concerns such as the violation of Title IX don’t convince Stanford to rescind the mandate, then what about its stated ethical commitment to upholding its Code of Conduct?
BMJ’s Journal of Medical Ethics recently published COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk Benefit Assessment and Ethical Analysis of Mandate Policies at Universities. In this paper, eminent researchers from Harvard, Oxford, Johns Hopkins, and UC San Francisco (among other institutions) present five reasons university mandates are unethical.
They argue that the vaccines:
“(1) are not based on an updated (Omicron era) stratified risk-benefit assessment for this age group; (2) may result in a net harm to healthy young adults; (3) are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; (4) violate the reciprocity principle because serious vaccine-related harms are not reliably compensated due to gaps in vaccine injury schemes; and (5) may result in wider social harms.” (emphases mine here and below)
They calculate that:
“To prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation over a 6-month period, we estimate that 31,207–42,836 young adults aged 18–29 years must receive a third mRNA vaccine.”
The authors conclude that:
“university COVID-19 vaccine mandates are likely to cause net expected harms to young healthy adults—for each hospitalisation averted we estimate approximately 18.5 SAEs and 1,430–4,626 disruptions of daily activities.… these severe infringements of individual liberty and human rights are ethically unjustifiable.”
This builds on a previously published BMJ Global Health article by some of the same authors titled, “The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Vaccine Policy: Why Mandates, Passports, and Restrictions May Cause More Harm Than Good.”
In this paper, the authors contend that COVID-19 vaccine mandates “have unintended harmful consequences and may not be ethical, scientifically justified, and effective” and “may prove to be both counterproductive and damaging to public health.”
Over the course of history, countless products once thought to be safe—from DDT to cigarettes to thalidomide for pregnant women to Vioxx—were eventually discovered to be dangerous and even lethal. Responsible governments, agencies, and companies pull those products from the market when the scientific data proves harm—and institutions that care about their community members certainly don’t mandate those products when evidence of risk becomes obvious, as is the case now for the experimental COVID vaccines.
Mahatma Gandhi once stated:
“An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it. Truth stands, even if there be no public support. It is self-sustained.”
The truth is clear to anyone who’s willing to look.
Will it stand up for the lives and health of its students—or will it wait until tragedy strikes another George Watts Jr. or Megha Thakur?
This is a historic opportunity for Stanford to prove its allegiance to people, scientific data, and critical thought over pharmaceutical donors, political pressures, and conformist thinking.
The stakes could not be higher.
* * *
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