Connect with us

Spread & Containment

Futures Slide As Gold Gets Monkeyhammered After Hitting $2,000

Futures Slide As Gold Gets Monkeyhammered After Hitting $2,000

Published

on

Futures Slide As Gold Gets Monkeyhammered After Hitting $2,000 Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2020 - 08:01

S&P futures and European stocks slumped as market optimism faded during the busiest week of earnings season...

... while Gold was hammered moments after the December future hit an all time high of $2000 following a record-breaking rally, with spot gold tanking more than $30 in minutes and silver dropping as much as 2% before regaining composure.

Gold hit a record high on Tuesday before the sheer scale of its gains drew a burst of profit-taking, with the volatility prompting the Shanghai Gold Exchange to issue a notice on risk prevention and express a willingness to take action if required. The dump in gold also helped the dollar rebound from two-year lows.

It also appears that our old friend, Benoit Gilson is finally back in his Basel office.

After rising almost $40 higher at one point to reach $1,980 an ounce, gold was hit by a wave of selling which it pushed back to $1,915 in volatile trade. Gold is still up over $125 in little more than a week as investors bet the Federal Reserve will reaffirm its super- accommodative policies at its meeting this week, and perhaps signal a tolerance for higher inflation in the long run.

"Fed officials have made clear that they will be making their forward guidance more dovish and outcome-based soon," wrote analysts at TD Securities. “The chairman is likely to continue the process of prepping markets for changes when he speaks at his press conference.” One shift could be to average inflation targeting, which would see the Fed aim to push inflation above its 2% target to make up for years of under-shooting.

The retreat in gold took some steam out of stocks, with Europe’s STOXX 600 turning red even after MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended up 0.8%. Italian and French markets led declining markets in Europe, with LVMH and Moncler SpA both dropping after the high-end apparel makers earnings missed analyst expectations. There were bright spots in earnings: PSA Group jumped as much as 5.6% after the Peugeot maker surpassed estimates for revenue and profit.

In the US, Pfizer jumped in the premarket after boosting its earnings forecast and saying it began a later-stage trial with a German partner for their top coronavirus vaccine candidate. McDonalds meanwhile slumped after missing on both earnings (EPS $0.65 vs exp. 0.74) and comp sales (-23.9%, exp. -22.3%).

Asian stocks trimmed tech-powered gains as the Taiex index briefly wiped out 3.5% rally, seen after TSMC extended its gravity-defying surge by another 9.9% to become 10th largest company in the world. Most markets in the region were up, with South Korea's Kospi Index gaining 1.8% and India's S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 0.9%, while Japan's Topix Index dropped 0.5%. The Topix declined 0.5%, with Chori and Mitsubishi Motors falling the most.

While China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, with Sichuan Hongda and Jilin Forest Ind posting the biggest advances, the recent China stock bubble appears to have completely fizzled with trading in mainland equities cooling again on Tuesday with a further dip in turnover while overseas investors trimmed holdings for a fourth day, the longest streak in four months. Turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 867 billion yuan on Tuesday, falling for a second straight day after ending a 17-day streak above 1 trillion yuan on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Overseas investors offloaded 2.23 billion yuan worth of Chinese stocks via exchange links; the four-day selling streak is the longest since late March, during a global slump in equities.  Northbound net selling since July 23 has reached 23.75 billion yuan; for the month to date, overseas investors have net bought 10.9 billion yuan of mainland equities.

According to Bloomberg, investors are betting setbacks in the fight against the coronavirus will lead Jerome Powell to signal Wednesday that rates will stay near zero for longer. Health officials are tackling rising cases in countries ranging from Japan and China to Germany, underscoring the difficulty of curbing the pandemic.

Fabiana Fedeli, global head of fundamental equities at Robeco cast doubt on whether further Fed moves to supply liquidity and hold rates low will spark more gains in the biggest stock market: "What we’re going to need next for another leg up is a better macroeconomic outlook, because the next leg up will come from a rotation into cyclicals,"  Fedeli told Bloomberg TV.  "Right now you can see some improvement in North Asia. But still not in the U.S.”

After days of sliding, the dollar turned stronger against all FX majors after the record-breaking precious metals rally showed signs of petering out. The euro pulled back from its highest since 2018; the pound slipped from a four- month high on a lack of fresh catalysts as some technical indicators suggested the U.K. currency’s recent gains were excessive. That said, the BBG DXY index slipped after a brief recovery when investors took profit on precious metal trades. A sharp drop in gold prices spurred a fall in commodity currencies, putting downward pressure on the Aussie and the Kiwi, which led losses against the greenback. Funds were seen cutting dollar balances before the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, according to an Asia-based FX trader. 

Alan Ruskin, head of G10 strategy at Deutsche Bank, noted currencies had been tracking the relative performance of their economies, so that high-ranked economic performance was associated with stronger currencies.

“One clear pattern is how economies linked most tightly to China — including commodity producers as diverse as Australia, Chile and Brazil — have tended to perform better than economies most directly linked to the U.S., notably its NAFTA trading partners," said Ruskin. The dollar has been falling almost across the board, reaching a two-year low against a basket of currencies at 93.416 before recovering to 93.975. The euro dropped back to $1.1710 after rising to its highest in two years at $1.1781. The dollar touched its lowest against the Swiss franc since mid-2015. It also fell to a four-month low of 105.10 against the Japanese yen before last trading at 105.57.

In rates, treasuries unwound Asia-session losses by early U.S. trading, leaving yields marginally richer across the curve vs Monday’s close. S&P 500 E-mini futures erased gains, helping lift Treasury futures off session lows, as Euro Stoxx 50 were pressured lower with no clear catalyst. U.S. 10-year yields were richer by 0.5bp at ~0.61%; bunds underperform by ~0.5bp, gilts by ~1.7bp following auctions of bonds due in 2027 and 2054. Treasury auction cycle concludes with record $44b 7-year note sale at 1pm ET; Monday’s 2- and 5-year auctions tailed while stopping at record low yields. IG credit issuance slate includes Adani Ports 7-year; $15.85 billion priced Monday, headed by AT&T jumbo deal.

Elsewhere in commodities, oil's front month benchmarks are modestly firmer but overall little changed and following the generally tentative equity sentiment this morning. Today's private inventory release is expected to show a build of 1mln compared to last week’s more considerable, and unexpected, build of 7.54mln.

Looking at the day ahead, expected data include consumer confidence. Harley-Davidson, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Amgen and Starbucks are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures -0.5% to 3,216.0
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 367.59
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 167.30
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 551.70
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,657.38
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,569.12
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,772.76
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,227.96
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 38,392.74
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,020.50
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,256.99
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $43.36/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,930.73
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.90
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to -0.495%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1714
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.862%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.349%

Top Overnight News

  • Senate Republicans presented their $1 trillion plan to bolster the pandemic-ravaged U.S. economy with a package that that didn’t completely settle differences within the GOP
  • Gold’s record-breaking rally showed signs of losing steam after futures touched $2,000 an ounce for the first time
  • The European Central Bank urges banks to hold off on returning capital to shareholders and show moderation in setting bonuses amid the coronavirus outbreak in a blow to some lender
  • China’s “bat woman” says the U.S. president owes her country an apology as she again denied assertions that the novel coronavirus is linked to the Wuhan lab where she works
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez lashes out in response to the U.K. ratcheting up its travel ban to Spain to include popular holiday islands

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the initial optimism abated despite a lack of fresh catalysts and a positive handover from Wall Street, which saw the NDX rise almost 2% as tech stocks surged, with Netflix, Amazon and Apple all closing higher by between 1.5-3%. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was driven by upside in the mining sectors at the open as precious metals continued on their upwards trajectory before paring gains. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) had somewhat of a lacklustre start amid currency dynamics but later managed to notch some gains for the session. KOSPI (+1.8%) saw firm advances amid hopes of an economic rebound coupled by stable COVID-19 infection rates, whilst Samsung Electronics joined the broader tech rally with gains in excess of 6% as it further propped up the index. On that note, Taiwan’s chip-behemoth TSMC rose as much as 10% today after a similar rally yesterday, to obtain a spot in the top 10 largest stocks by market cap.  Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) conformed to the broader gains across the region, with the former buoyed by IT stocks following the debut of its tech index, whilst Mainland China was supported by a PBoC liquidity injection.

Top Asian News

  • SoftBank Hits New Highs as Son’s Investing Record Is Reappraised
  • Nissan Forecasts Sharp Sales, Profit Drop as Business Struggles
  • Tencent Offers $2.1 Billion for Chinese Search Giant Sogou

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%) traded with little in the way of firm direction with incremental newsflow since yesterday’s close relatively light for much of the session; however, as US participants begin to arrive both European bourses & US equity futures have slipped a touch – with the e-mini S&P Sep’20 future down some 10 points. One of the minor outliers in Europe has been the CAC 40 (-0.7%) with the index hampered by performance in LVMH (-5.3%) after posting a 68% decline in H1 profits amid the COVID-19 hit to the luxury sector, whilst the Co. also refrained from providing much in the way of detail on its prospects for the recovery; Hermes (-2.2%), Kering (-1.7%) have been seen lower in sympathy. Stemming some losses from the index has been PSA (+3.3%) after exceeding expectations for H1 net revenues and adjusted operating profits, support for the CAC 40 has also been provided by Carrefour (+3.5%) ahead of aftermarket earnings later today. Sector-wise UK homebuilders are cheering reports in the FT suggesting that UK Ministers are said to be drawing up plans to extend the "Help to Buy" property scheme past its December deadline to prevent buyers from losing out due to pandemic-related delays. For the Eurozone banking sector, as flagged, ECB extended its recommendation for Eurozone banks not to pay dividends until January 2021. Other notable movers include, Delivery Hero (+0.5%) after raising FY revenue guidance and UBI Banca (+7.8%) with Intesa Sanpaolo (-1.3%) stating that it sees its bid for the Co. as likely to succeed. Notable US earnings today include Pfizer, 3M, Starbucks, Altria, Amgen, McDonald's, Visa & eBay.

Top European News

  • Spain Lashes Out at the U.K.’s ‘Unbalanced’ Travel Ban
  • Spanish Unemployment Rises Above 15%, With Worse to Come
  • Intesa Expects UBI Takeover to Succeed as Deadline Is Extended

In FX, it seems as if Usd 2000/oz and 1.1800 were just too rich or resistant for bullion and single currency buyers, but the subsequent reversals also coincided with specific factors such as the US Mint cutting Gold and Silver coins to suppliers and Japanese data revealing the biggest net oversold Eur/Jpy intraday positioning since October 2018. Moreover, one trader in Japan contended that Euro optimism based on economic recovery is simply overdone and the cross is now well below 124.00, while Eur/Usd is testing 1.1700 bids from a circa 1.1781 high on Monday. Back to the yellow metal, spot hit a fresh peak around Usd 1980 and the December 2020 future did crest the 2k mark, but only briefly and some might say for sentiment’s sake or the tape before an abrupt and aggressive about face. Clearly, long liquidation, profit taking and stops were tripped amidst the recoil, with contacts noting technical selling when the prior record high (Usd 1921 or so) was breached on the way back down, but the retracement has petered out ahead of Usd 1900 and very close to a Fib level as the clock ticks down to front month July contract expiry on Wednesday where there could still be residual physical demand for delivery.

  • USD - The Dollar looks in prime position for a classic turnaround Tuesday, albeit at the behest or whim of others and notwithstanding another twist in the tale. Indeed, after only just holding above yesterday’s low (at 93.492 vs 93.469) the index is back near 94.000 and has been a fraction over the round number on broad recovery gains in Buck/major pairings. Ahead, US consumer confidence and some regional Fed surveys on FOMC day 1.
  • NZD - Not quite a case of hero to zero, but the Kiwi has been hit hardest in G10 circles by the Greenback’s revival, and with added pressure from NZ joining the throng of countries cutting extradition ties with Hong Kong in response to China’s new national security law. Nzd/Usd has retreated through 0.6650 after touching 0.6700 and braced for Beijing’s anticipated response.
  • CAD/AUD/JPY/GBP/CHF - Also yielding to the US Dollar’s ‘renaissance’, but to varying degrees with the Loonie unwinding gains between 1.3330-90 parameters, Aussie pivoting 0.7150, Yen straddling 105.50, Sterling slipping from 1.2900+ and Franc back under 0.9200, though the latter clawing back some heavy losses vs the Euro from under 1.0800.
  • SCANDI/EM - The Swedish Crown continues to outperform and solid data is helping as retail sales gathered pace in June, while the trade surplus swelled compared to May, but the Norwegian Krona is lagging despite an even bigger pick up in consumption as Eur/Nok hugs 10.7000 in contrast to Eur/Sek holding sub-10.3000. Elsewhere, at last a break from monotony for the Turkish Lira, but not a positive move as the Try succumbed to a flash crash overnight and is struggling to recover within a 6.9075-6.8615 range even though the country’s BDDK banking watchdog has exempted foreign development banks from restricted access to Lira liquidity.

In commodities, precious metals have once again taken the spotlight but are somewhat tarnished after this mornings & APAC price action. Overnight, spot gold fell from highs of USD 1981.20/oz by some USD 40/oz, with little in the way of a clear fundamental catalyst or driver for the move. Since then, price action has come under further pressure dropping to the session low of USD 1907.20/oz shortly after the European cash equity open. In terms of potential drivers for this move the reversal in the USD is a plausible catalyst with the DXY having picked up considerably given recent price action to a high above the 94.00 handle. Alongside this the GOP stimulus unveiling and positioning pre-FOMC may have a role to play. Technically, investors may well be electing to take physical delivery of gold rather than roll their futures contract over, July future expires on 29th July, alongside the US mint reducing gold and silver coin supply to purchasers; the latter may be factoring into the demand side as well as the obvious supply implications as investors could be concerned regarding the scope for physical delivers to be readily available in the period ahead. In terms of levels to watch out for, USD 1900/oz serves as the clear psychological barrier to watch and below this USD 1898.75/oz was the low from Monday. Note, the volatility seen in gold and silver has prompted the Shanghai Gold Exchange to issue a notice on risk prevention and express a willingness to take action if required. Turning to WTI and Brent it has, again, been a session devoid of fundamental catalysts explicitly for the crude complex and as such the front month benchmarks are modestly firmer but overall little changed and following the generally tentative equity sentiment this morning. Tonight’s private inventory release is expected to show a build of 1mln compared to last week’s more considerable, and unexpected, build of 7.54mln.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.3%, prior 0.33%; YoY NSA, est. 4.05%, prior 3.98%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 95, prior 98.1; Present Situation, prior 86.2; Expectations, prior 106
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 5, prior 0

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Truth be told it’s not been the most exciting last 24 hours to report in markets at least for newsflow, however with some of the more significant events still to come, the Fed meeting on Wednesday and a slew of corporate earnings being the most obvious, hopefully there should be more to talk about over the coming days.

Despite what felt like a classic summer lull session, equities still trended higher across the pond with the S&P 500 closing +0.74% and reversing all of Friday’s decline. As we’ve become accustomed to, the market had large cap tech to thank with the NASDAQ rallying +1.67%. That means that since the March 23 lows, the index has gained at least 1% in a single session 33 times in the 87 trading days during the period. As noted at the top, we’ve got a jam-packed next four days for earnings with 179 S&P 500 companies reporting including the likes of Alphabet, Amazon and Apple so the sector will be firmly in the spotlight. Speaking of earnings, so far the overall story has been positive with 82% of companies beating analyst’s estimates (with 129 companies having reported), compared to 65% last quarter. Although how much of that is due to the number of companies that pulled guidance three months ago at the height of the selloff.

Meanwhile, there’s been no stopping Gold recently with the precious metal up another +2.11% yesterday. Overnight, futures briefly touched $2000/oz with spot now at $1945/oz. That puts it up an incredible $475 since the March lows. Silver also made headway yesterday, jumping another +8.00% which means that since the end of June alone it is up +35.05%. Treasuries were a shade weaker through all of this, with 10y yields up +2.6bps while the USD index fell another -0.81%, meaning it’s now dropped 7 days in a row and 11 times in the last 12 trading days.

Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+0.10%), Hang Seng (+0.53%), Shanghai Comp (+0.60%), Kospi (+1.23%) and ASX (+0.09%) all advancing while futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.09%.

Back to yesterday, where we did get some headlines around the latest fiscal developments in the US. Senate Republicans unveiled their opening salvo, with the bill a reported $1tn and which includes cutting supplemental unemployment benefits to $200 weekly from $600 until states are able to provide 70% of a worker’s previous pay. There remains a great deal of consternation within the party, as Senator Lindsey Graham said Sunday that half of his caucus are going to vote no on any additional stimulus. Majority Leader McConnell said that the end of the first week of August is still the target date, so time is ticking. Overnight, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delivered a harsh assessment of the GOP plan, calling it a “pathetic” piecemeal approach and saying it wasn’t adequate to the country’s needs. However, she added “having said that, we are going to see if we can find some common ground. But we are not there yet.”

In other news, it was a slightly different picture here in Europe yesterday where the STOXX 600 closed -0.31% albeit on well below average volumes. Bonds were stronger, with 10y Bund yields down -4.3bps and with the rally it’s worth noting that the stock of negative yielding debt in the world hit $15.18tn yesterday, taking it above the March highs. However it’s still some way off the $17.04tn back in August 2019. The weakness in Europe appeared to be due to some of the deteriorating virus data. In Germany, the public-health authority announced a “very concerning” trend of case growth traced to a farm in Bavaria. Similar concerns are faced in the Catalonia region of Spain, where the regional President Torra said the region faces a critical situation with coronavirus outbreaks. For more, see the latest Exit Strategy Policy Tracker from our team member Marion, (link here).

Staying with the virus, Moderna started its late-stage vaccine trial in the US with 30,000 people and received an additional $472 million award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) over the weekend. In terms of cases, California’s 7-day average of new cases fell to just under 2.3%, which is the lowest level since mid-June before the recent acceleration in cases. Florida similarly has seen its 7-day average rate of new cases drop under 3% for the first time since the current wave started last month. Overall the US’s 7 day average is now under 1.7% new cases per day for the first time this month, indicating reinstated restrictive measures are indeed slowing the rate of spread.

Elsewhere, Australia’s state of Victoria reported a further 384 new cases in the past 24 hours and said that it will suspend all but the most urgent elective surgeries. In Vietnam, provinces are now making it mandatory to wear masks in public after an unexpected flare-up in community infections in Danang (reported 11 new cases yesterday). Danang province has put about 7,000 people in quarantine for 14 days. China also reported 68 new infections overnight with 1 new case in Beijing which went without any case for over 2 weeks in a row. Hong Kong, India and Japan are also showing concerning trends.

In terms of data, Germany’s July Ifo business climate reading came in at 90.5 (vs. 89.3 expected), up from a revised 86.3 from last month, but still well below pre-pandemic levels. US preliminary June durable goods orders rose by 7.3% (vs. 6.9% expected) last month after the prior month’s downwardly revised 15.1%. The speed of recovery slowed even though the overall level of orders remains well below February’s recording. Staying in the US, the July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index was at -3.0 (vs. -4.8 expected) up from the prior month’s -6.1 reading and nearly at 2019’s average overall level. Euro Area June M3 money supply grew to 9.2% y-o-y, (vs. -9.3% expected) up from last month’s 8.9%.

Finally to the day ahead, where this morning we get the UK July CBI distributive trade survey, while this afternoon releases in the US include the July Conference Board consumer confidence and the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index. In terms of earnings we will see results from Starbucks, Visa, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Peugeot and Nissan.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

Published

on

By

Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Revving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry

With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.

Published

on

By

Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive.”

But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As the inaugural chair of the University of Florida’s department of tourism, hospitality and event management, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent a growing share of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them.

And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada.
The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Katherine Fu

The future of tourism is in events and experiences

Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the U.S. alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both industry leaders and academics are paying attention.

Event tourism is also key to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated an estimated $422 million for the local economy and drew record-breaking crowds to the city’s hotels.

That’s why when Formula One announced it would be making a 10-year commitment to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was eager to spread the news. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated $100 million in tax revenue, the head of that agency later announced.

Why Formula One?

Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated about $2.6 billion in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and 27% from 2019, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019.

This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500.

Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur.
Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix. Rachel Fu, CC BY

That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond.

This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.

How hospitality and business programs should prepare students

To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential.

Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on environmental responsibility in recent years. While some critics have been skeptical of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both contributes to climate change and is threatened by it. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism.

Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important.

Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the younger generation’s growing interest in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts.

Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow

F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a strategic move in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.

Looking ahead in 2024, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in broadcasting technology and evolving sponsorship models are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on Feb. 23, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.

Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady…

Published

on

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances during the first half of 2023. In this post, we interpret the recent drop in ON RRP take-up through the lens of the channels that we identify in our recent Staff Report as driving its initial increase.

ON RRP Take-up Has Been Decreasing since June 2023…

A blue single-line chart depicts ON RRP take-pp from 2020  through the end of 2023 in trillions of U.S. dollars. The chart shows a steady increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022. Ater a period of relatively stable balances in the first half of 2023, the chart shows a recent drop in ON RRP take-up.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis. FRED database.

Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs

As the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased the supply of reserves to the banking system and, as a result, banks’ balance sheets also grew. Reserves increased from $1.6 trillion—or 9 percent of banks assets—in January 2020 to $3.2 trillion—or 16 percent of bank assets—over the following three months, reaching a historical maximum of 19 percent of banks’ assets in September 2021. As the chart below shows, bank assets also grew from $18 trillion in January of 2020 to $20 trillion in April 2020, and continued to increase to $23 trillion in May 2023.

As banks’ balance sheets expand, regulatory ratios—such as the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)—are likely to become tighter for some institutions. Banks react to increased balance-sheet costs by pushing some of their deposits toward the money market fund (MMF) industry—for instance, by lowering the rate paid on bank deposits—and reducing their demand for short-term debt. As we explain in our paper, both effects are likely to have boosted ON RRP take-up during March 2021 – May 2023, as most MMFs are eligible to invest in the ON RRP and do so especially when alternative investment options, such as banks’ wholesale short-term debt—including repos by dealers affiliated with a bank holding company—dwindle.

Likely, these effects have subsided relative to 2022. Indeed, since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023, below the average of 16 percent observed between March 2020 and May 2023. Since the SLR treats all assets in the same way regardless of their riskiness, large banks’ balance-sheet expansions are particularly costly if they are used to finance safe assets with low returns. Therefore, though bank assets have remained relatively stable, the recent decline in the ratio of reserves to bank assets has likely reduced banks’ overall balance-sheet costs.

…while Bank Assets and Reserves Relative to Bank Assets Have Remained Roughly Constant.

 A two-line chart depicts bank assets in red and the ratio of bank reserves to assets in blue from 2020 to late 2023. Since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED database.

Consistent with a decrease in banks’ balance-sheet costs (and an increase in the supply of bank debt), the interest rates at which banks and broker dealers borrow via overnight Treasury-backed repos have increased since the fourth quarter of 2022 and are now a few basis points above the ON RRP rate (see chart below). This positive rate differential pushes MMFs away from investing at the ON RRP facility and into private repos.

The SOFR-ON RRP Spread Has Been Positive…

A blue single-line chart depicts the spread between the secured overnight financing rate and the ON RRP rate in basis points from 2020 through the end of 2024. The rate differential has been positive since early 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, FRED database.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can affect ON RRP take-up by MMFs in two ways. First, the interest-rate pass-through of MMF shares is higher than that of bank deposits; as a result, the size of the MMF industry comoves with the monetary policy cycle as investors switch from bank deposits to MMF shares when the policy rate increases. Though the assets of the MMF industry are at an all-time high, the pace of the increase has somewhat decreased recently, consistent with a slower pace of monetary policy tightening; moreover, the share of MMF assets managed by government funds—the ones most likely to invest in the ON RRP—has decreased since June 2022 by 7 percentage points.

Second, monetary policy can affect MMFs’ take-up at the ON RRP also through its effect on interest-rate uncertainty. Higher uncertainty leads MMFs to rebalance their portfolios toward investments with shorter duration; the ON RRP is one such investment as it is overnight. Indeed, interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023. Recently, however, the increase has been partially reversed. Indeed, the average level of the MOVE was 125.6 in the first half of 2023 but declined to 117.3 in the second half of the year.

…while Interest-Rate Uncertainty Has Been Decreasing.

A blue single line chart shows that interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

The Supply of T-bills

A third driver of ON RRP take-up is the supply of T-bills. The Federal Government has expanded the supply of T-bills dramatically in 2023: T-bills outstanding increased from $3.7 trillion at the end of 2022 to $5.3 trillion at the end of September 2023, with a $1.3 trillion increase since June. As the supply of T-bills grows, the investment options of MMFs—and especially of government funds, which represent 83 percent of the industry and can only invest in short-term government debt and repos backed by government debt—expand and, as a result, their investment in the ON RRP dwindles. In our staff report, we estimate that a $100 billion increase in the amount of T-bill issuance reduces the proportion of ON RRP investment in a government-MMF portfolio by 2.3 percentage points, relative to that in a prime-MMF portfolio; since average monthly T-bill issuance went from $1.12 trillion in the period from 2022:Q1-2023:Q1 to $1.53 trillion in 2023:Q2-2023:Q3, this effect on portfolio rebalancing amounts to an additional decrease in ON RRP investment of roughly $350 billion.

Summing It Up

The increase in ON RRP take-up between 2021 and May 2023 was driven by a series of factors: a rise in banks’ balance-sheet costs due to the expansion of the supply of reserves in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid hikes in policy rates aimed at fighting inflation and the resulting increase in interest-rate uncertainty, and the decrease in the T-bill supply of 2021-22 resulting from the normalization of public debt after the COVID-19  crisis.

These factors have reversed: the Federal Reserve restarted running off its balance sheet after the temporary expansion during the banking turmoil of March 2023; the growth of the banking system waned while the ratio of reserves to asset decreased; the pace of interest-rate hikes slowed down; and the T-bill supply increased again. If these dynamics persist in the months ahead, ON RRP take-up may continue to decrease. Such a steady decline would be consistent with that observed in early 2018, when investment at the ON RRP gradually disappeared as the Federal Reserve continued to normalize the size of its balance sheet and reserves in the banking system became less abundant.

Gara Afonso is the head of Banking Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Gabriele La Spada is a financial research economist in Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.   

How to cite this post:
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada, “Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 19, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending