Futures Slide Ahead Of Jobless Claims As Gold Surge ContinuesTyler DurdenThu, 08/06/2020 - 08:17
US stock index futures dropped on Thursday alongside European stocks as investors looked forward to the latest weekly jobless claims report to gauge the pace of a rebound in the labor market, while also anticipating a new fiscal stimulus bill.
The top decliner among components of the Nasdaq 100 index was Western Digital shares, which sank 8.9% pre-market after the hard drive maker reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and forecast a soft current quarter outlook.
In Europe, mining giant Glencore Plc led losses among peers after scrapping its dividend. U.K. broadcaster ITV Plc slumped after saying it wouldn’t provide an outlook for the rest of the year after the pandemic led to its worst-ever drop in advertising sales. Turkey’s lira tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar as interventions by state banks failed to reassure markets.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were little changed, with materials and energy rising, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with South Korea's Kospi Index gaining 1.3% and India's S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7%. The Topix declined 0.3%, with Japan Sys Tech and Grace falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%, with Sichuan Hongda and Bohai Automative Systems posting the biggest advances. Chinese shares dropped after Secretary of State Pompeo warned of ‘significant threat’ from ‘untrusted Chinese apps’.
“There are some risks of the market relying too heavily on positive news around the fiscal stimulus and an earnings season that still wasn’t that great, even if many companies did beat,” Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Melbourne, said on Bloomberg TV. “There’s a case for markets, in the U.S. particularly, taking a pause from here on out rather than continuing this rally, given how strong it has been.”
Gold pushed further above $2,000 an ounce for a third day before news on whether the U.S. will approve another trillion-dollar aid package (or much bigger) to counter the coronavirus. Silver prices were up 25% in July, the second-biggest monthly gain for the white metal on record, anbd are extending gains this week, with spot silver spiking above $28 this morning...
And gold rising too...
In FX, the dollar index halted its slide after falling for two sessions after California reported its second-deadliest day from the virus and Florida’s tally topped 500,000. Traders are monitoring negotiations for the next virus aid package while Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said more fiscal support is needed after a sharp drop in U.S. employment gains in July. The pound strengthens as much as 0.5% against the U.S. dollar as the BOE points to the pitfalls of negative rates, and leaves them on hold at a record low of 0.1%. Turkey’s lira tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar as interventions by state banks failed to reassure markets. The Norwegian krone trimmed some of its gains after it reached its highest levels since January on Wednesday as a rally in oil prices falters. Australia’s dollar also trims its gains after rising on an uptick in iron ore prices.
China’s yuan weakened for the first time in three sessions, following a rapid advance a day earlier that some traders saw as excessive. The currency dropped 0.16% to 6.9458 per dollar as of 5:14 p.m. in Shanghai. The slide came after the yuan rallied 0.6% on Wednesday, driven by optimism on China-U.S. relations as senior officials from the two countries planned to discuss the trade deal this month. That hopefulness then faded as the U.S. stepped up its attack on Chinese technology firms. The earlier advance took the yuan’s 14-day relative strength index versus the dollar beyond a level which to some traders signaled the gains were overdone
In rates, treasuries bull-steepen as long-end yields shed up to 4bp, extending slide in early U.S. session as S&P 500 futures fall, led by European stocks on earnings. Yields were lower by 1bp to 4bp across a flatter curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads tighter by 2.5bp and 1.4bp; 30-year touched 1.179%, lowest since April. Dip-buying during Asia session and a flurry of futures activity including block trades sparked the move, which continued through European morning.
Looking at today's initial claims report, consensus expects a 1.415 million Americans filed for state unemployment benefits in the latest week, down slightly after two consecutive weeks of huge increases triggered fears of a stalled recovery in the labor market.
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,320.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 364.28
MXAP up 0.1% to 169.72
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 567.44
Nikkei down 0.4% to 22,418.15
Topix down 0.3% to 1,549.88
Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 24,930.58
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,386.46
Sensex up 1.2% to 38,101.69
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,042.19
Kospi up 1.3% to 2,342.61
German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to -0.515%
Euro down 0.06% to $1.1856
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $45.03/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.847%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.296%
Brent futures down 0.2% to $45.06/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,051.33
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.01% to 92.86
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Twitter Inc. and Facebook Inc. blocked a video shared by accounts linked to U.S. President Donald Trump for violating their policies on coronavirus misinformation in clip of an interview in which he said children were “virtually immune” from Covid-19
German manufacturing continued its recovery in June, with orders rising much stronger than forecast after restrictions to contain the coronavirus were loosened
Investors should consider the risk of a successful coronavirusvaccine unsettling markets by sparking a sell-off in bonds and rotation out of technology into cyclical stocks, warned Goldman Sachs Group Inc
Glencore Plc won’t pay its deferred dividend after net debt spiked because the commodities giant poured money into its trading business to cash in on volatile price swings
Asian equity markets traded mixed amid a lack of fresh catalysts and with the region failing to take advantage of the mild tailwinds from Wall St where cyclicals led the upside and the DJIA outperformed its major peers after the blue-chip index received a boost from a surge in Disney shares post-earnings and with Boeing also flying high after optimism on its ability to navigate through the aviation crisis. Furthermore, participants continue to hang on COVID-19 relief discussions where the latest headlines suggested that progress must be made by this Friday or else President Trump is ready to take executive action. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was positive with the index kept afloat of the 6000 level, supported by the commodity-related sectors and with the RBA continuing its QE operations for a 2nd consecutive day. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) was subdued by a firmer currency and as earnings remained in focus with Honda Motor and Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding among the worst hit after posting losses during the prior quarter, while KOSPI (+1.3%) benefitted alongside strength in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics after it unveiled a new phablet, foldable smartphone and wearable products. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) failed to hold on to early gains with sentiment dampened by a continued PBoC liquidity drain and ongoing US-China tensions with the US said to want untrusted Chinese apps removed from US app stores and President Trump criticized that Hong Kong will not be a successful financial exchange anymore in which the city will dry up and fail. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid spill-over selling from USTs and with prices also dampened by weaker demand at the 10yr inflation-indexed auction.
Top Asian News
India’s Central Bank Holds Rates, Focuses on Financial Stability
Thailand Picks Ex-Banker as Finance Chief to Fight Crisis
Philippines Raises Budget Deficit Ceiling Until 2022
Japan Stocks Fall as Traders Shift Holdings Before Summer Break
A choppy day in European stock markets [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%] as losses seen at the open where met with a bout of buying – which took most of Europe into positive territory – but price action thereafter reversed. UK’s FTSE 100 (-1.3%) remains the underperformer in the region in the aftermath of the BoE monetary policy decision, which prompted a firmer GBP thus providing unfavourable currency conditions. On the other side of the spectrum, DAX (Unch) has remained somewhat resilient amid post-earning gains from a number of heavyweights including Siemens (+2.7%) and Adidas (+4.0%) who hold 8.3% and 4.4% weightings respectively. Sectors are mostly lower with the exception of industrials – which benefits from the broader losses across materials – but broader sectors do not show a particular risk bias. The breakdown paints a similar picture and sees Industrial Goods & Services leading the gains, with Travel & Leisure now flat after Lufthansa (Unch) trimmed gains, albeit the Co. reported less dire-than-expected numbers. Individual movers again are largely oriented around earnings: Adecco (+1.1%), Credit Agricole (-0.5%), ING (-0.2%), Glencore (-5.9%) – with the latter narrowing its FY20 copper production guidance after reporting deteriorations in both revenue and adj. EBIT.
Top European News
Merck KGaA Lifts Profit Outlook as Pandemic Seen Abating
Pound Gains, Bonds Fall as Prospect of BOE Negative Rates Fades
Lufthansa Rises as Airline Widens Job Cuts, Analysts Cite Beats
Hammerson to Raise $1.1 Billion as Covid Hurts Malls
In FX, EUR/GBP - The cross has drifted back down towards 0.9000 following a much more pronounced Euro retreat from post-German data peaks relative to Sterling after a less pessimistic BoE near term outlook via the latest MPC minutes and MPR. Indeed, Eur/Usd has reversed sharply from 1.1915 to circa 1.1840, while Cable is holding firm on the 1.3100 handle between 1.3113-82 even though the Dollar has clawed back losses against most major counterparts and vs GOLD that has been instrumental in terms of the Greenback’s downfall. Back to the Pound, post-policy meeting comments from Governor Bailey underlined the message that NIRP remains under review and in the toolbox, but not currently on the agenda.
DXY/NZD/CAD/AUD - Consolidation, short covering and a technical rebound may all be contributing to the broad Buck bounce after the index breached the prior ytd low, but held close to 92.500 at 92.495 in the run up to Friday’s jobs data. However, 93.000 is capping the recovery for now as US Treasury yields and the curve stabilises amidst dip and block buying after Wednesday’s post-Quarterly Refunding bear-steepening and a bumper NFP print could yet prompt renewed Dollar selling given the likely boost to overall risk sentiment. Nevertheless, the Loonie has pared gains from 1.3250+ towards 1.3300, Kiwi is back below 0.6650 and Aussie sub-0.7200 against the backdrop of retracements in crude and commodities.
CHF/JPY - Both displaying degrees of resilience in the context of the aforementioned Greenback revival, as the Franc maintains 0.9100+ status and Yen stays comfortable afloat of 106.00 within a raft of hefty option expiries spanning 105.00 to 106.25 – for full details check out the headline feed at 7.30BST. Ahead, Japanese household spending data may provide some independent impetus for the Jpy before the monthly US labour report.
SCANDI/EM - The Norwegian and Swedish Crowns have been undermined by waning risk appetite on top of the downturn in oil prices, with Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek hovering around 10.6400 and 10.3100 respectively even though the single currency remains well off early highs, but the Turkish Lira is plunging further below 7.0000 vs the Dollar and looks destined to revisit record lows (7.2690), at least, as the rout continues and some market participants speculate whether the CBRT is compliant if not complicit with Try depreciation as a means of addressing the country’s deteriorating finances having depleted reserves and approaching the limits of monetary easing. Conversely, a Rupee rebound after the RBI confounded consensus for a 25 bp rate cut and remained on hold, while the Czech Koruna is anticipating the CNB to stand pat later.
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures remain in the doldrums in early European trade as a firmer Dollar and subdued risk sentiment weighs on prices amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts for the complex, whilst analysts at JPM have trimmed their H2 2020 pol demand forecast by 1.5mln BPD – potentially on account of second wave woes. On the docket, traders will be eyeing the possible release of Saudi Aramco’s OSPs for September – which could come later this week or early next week according to sources. Expectations point towards an OSP cut to their flagship grade to Asia amid the easing of supply cuts from OPEC+. Elsewhere, spot gold ekes mild gains relative to recent performance and trades on either side of USD 2050/oz, whilst spot silver remains the outperformer, some analysts cite the sharp recovery in global industrial activities coupled with constrained mining activity as factors behind the rally. Finally, Shanghai base metals had. a session of firm gains with prices hitting multi-month highs – with Nickel prices closing higher by almost 3% after a key miner Philippines reimposed lockdown measures, whilst Dalian iron ore rose some 3% on a rosier Chinese steel demand outlook
US Event Calendar
7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 305.5%
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.4m, prior 1.43m; Continuing Claims, est. 16.9m, prior 17m
In this specific predicament, U.S. officials have to choose a strategy to deliver the aid without the perception of benefiting Hamas, a group the U.S. and Israel both classify as a terrorist organization.
When aiding people in war zones, you can’t just send money, a development strategy called “cash transfers” that has become increasingly popular due to its efficiency. Sending money can boost the supply of locally produced goods and services and help people on the ground pay for what they need most. But injecting cash into an economy so completely cut off from the world would only stoke inflation.
So the aid must consist of goods that have to be brought into Gaza, and services provided by people working as part of an aid mission. Humanitarian aid can include food and water; health, sanitation and hygiene supplies and services; and tents and other materials for shelter and settlement.
Due to the closure of the border with Israel, aid can arrive in Gaza only via the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border.
The U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, will likely turn to its longtime partner on the ground, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, to serve as supply depots and distribute goods. That agency, originally founded in 1949 as a temporary measure until a two-state solution could be found, serves in effect as a parallel yet unelected government for Palestinian refugees.
USAID will likely want to tap into UNRWA’s network of 284 schools – many of which are now transformed into humanitarian shelters housing two-thirds of the estimated 1 million people displaced by Israeli airstrikes – and 22 hospitals to expedite distribution.
Since Biden took office, total yearly U.S. assistance for the Palestinian territories has totaled around $150 million, restored from just $8 million in 2020 under the Trump administration. During the Obama administration, however, the U.S. was providing more aid to the territories than it is now, with $1 billion disbursed in the 2013 fiscal year.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency is a U.N. organization. It’s not run by Hamas, unlike, for instance, the Gaza Ministry of Health. However, Hamas has frequently undermined UNRWA’s efforts and diverted international aid for military purposes.
Humanitarian aid professionals regularly have to contend with these trade-offs when deciding to what extent they can work with governments and local authorities that commit violent acts. They need to do so in exchange for the access required to help civilians under their control.
Similarly, Biden has had to make concessions to Israel while brokering for the freedom to send humanitarian aid to Gaza. For example, he has assured Israel that if any of the aid is diverted by Hamas, the operation will cease.
This promise may have been politically necessary. But if Biden already believes Hamas to be uncaring about civilian welfare, he may not expect the group to refrain from taking what they can.
Security best practices
What can be done to protect the security of humanitarian aid operations that take place in the midst of dangerous conflicts?
Under International Humanitarian Law, local authorities have the primary responsibility for ensuring the delivery of aid – even when they aren’t carrying out that task. To increase the chances that the local authorities will not attack them, aid groups can give “humanitarian notification” and voluntarily alert the local government as to where they will be operating.
Under the current agreement between the U.S., Israel and Egypt, the convoy will raise the U.N. flag. International inspectors will make sure no weapons are on board the vehicles before crossing over from Arish, Egypt, to Rafah, a city located on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
The aid convoy will likely cross without militarized security. This puts it at some danger of diversion once inside Gaza. But whether the aid convoy is attacked, seized or left alone, the Biden administration will have demonstrated its willingness to attempt a humanitarian relief operation. In this sense, a relatively small first convoy bearing water, medical supplies and food, among other items, serves as a test balloon for a sustained operation to follow soon after.
In that case, the presence of U.S. armed forces might provoke attacks on Gaza-bound aid convoys by Hamas and Islamic jihad fighters that otherwise would not have occurred. Combined with the mobilization of two U.S. Navy carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, I’d be concerned that such a move might also stoke regional anger. It would undermine the Biden administration’s attempts to cool the situation.
On U.N.-approved missions, aid delivery may be secured by third-party peacekeepers – meaning, in this case, personnel who are neither Israeli nor Palestinian – with the U.N. Security Council’s blessing. In this case, tragically, it’s unlikely that such a resolution could conceivably pass such a vote, much less quickly enough to make a difference.
Topher L. McDougal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
Credit: 2023 Barbarewicz et al.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
BUFFALO, NY- October 20, 2023 – A new research perspective was published in Oncoscience (Volume 10) on October 4, 2023, entitled, “Diagnosis and management of postoperative wound infections in the head and neck region.”
In everyday clinical practice at a department for oral and maxillofacial surgery, a large number of surgical procedures in the head and neck region take place under both outpatient and inpatient conditions. The basis of every surgical intervention is the patient’s consent to the respective procedure. Particular attention is drawn to the general and operation-specific risks.
Particularly in the case of soft tissue procedures in the facial region, bleeding, secondary bleeding, scarring and infection of the surgical area are among the most common complications/risks, depending on the respective procedure. In their new perspective, researchers Filip Barbarewicz, Kai-Olaf Henkel and Florian Dudde from Army Hospital Hamburg in Germany discuss the diagnosis and management of postoperative infections in the head and neck region.
“In order to minimize the wound infections/surgical site infections, aseptic operating conditions with maximum sterility are required.”
Furthermore, depending on the extent of the surgical procedure and the patient‘s previous illnesses, peri- and/or postoperative antibiotics should be considered in order to avoid postoperative surgical site infection. Abscesses, cellulitis, phlegmone and (depending on the location of the procedure) empyema are among the most common postoperative infections in the respective surgical area. The main pathogens of these infections are staphylococci, although mixed (germ) patterns are also possible.
“Risk factors for the development of a postoperative surgical site infection include, in particular, increased age, smoking, multiple comorbidities and/or systemic diseases (e.g., diabetes mellitus type II) as well as congenital and/ or acquired immune deficiency [10, 11].”
Continue reading the paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/oncoscience.589
Correspondence to: Florian Dudde
Keywords: surgical site infection, head and neck surgery
Oncoscience is a peer-reviewed, open-access, traditional journal covering the rapidly growing field of cancer research, especially emergent topics not currently covered by other journals. This journal has a special mission: Freeing oncology from publication cost. It is free for the readers and the authors.
To learn more about Oncoscience, visit Oncoscience.us and connect with us on social media:
A year after the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, he presented a new scheme to the Department of Education on Tuesday. While it is less aggressive than the prior plan, this proposal would cost hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, doing more harm than good.
As the legendary economist Milton Friedman noted, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
Higher education in America is costly, and this “forgiveness” would make it worse.
Signing up for potentially life-long student loans at a young age is too normalized. At the same time, not enough borrowers can secure jobs that offer adequate financial support to pay off these massive loans upon graduation or leaving college. These issues demand serious attention. But “erasing” student loans, as well-intentioned as it may be, is not the panacea Americans have been led to believe.
Upon closer examination, the President’s forgiveness plan creates winners and losers, ultimately benefiting higher-income earners the most. In reality, this plan amounts to wealth redistribution. To quote another top economist, Thomas Sowell described this clearly: “There are no solutions, only trade-offs.”
Forgiving student loans is not the end of the road but the beginning of a trade-off for a rising federal fiscal crisis and soaring college tuition.
When the federal government uses taxpayer funds to give student loans, it charges an interest rate to account for the cost of the loan. To say that all borrowers no longer have to pay would mean taxpayers lose along with those who pay for it and those who have been paying or have paid off their student loans.
Let’s consider that there will be 168 million tax returns filed this year. A simple calculation suggests that student loan forgiveness could add around $2,000 yearly in taxes per taxpayer, based on the CRFB’s central estimate.
Clearly, nothing is free, and the burden of student loan forgiveness will be shifted to taxpayers.
One notable feature of this plan is that forgiveness is unavailable to individuals earning over $125,000 annually. In practice, this means that six-figure earners could have their debts partially paid off by lower-income tax filers who might not have even pursued higher education. This skewed allocation of resources is a sharp departure from progressive policy.
Inflation remains high, affordable housing is a distant dream, and wages fail to keep up with soaring inflation. Introducing the potential of an additional $2,000 annual tax burden at least for those already struggling, mainly to subsidize high-income earners, adds insult to injury.
Furthermore, it’s vital to recognize that the burden of unpaid student loans should not fall on low-income earners or Americans who did not attend college. Incentives play a crucial role in influencing markets.
By removing the incentive for student loan borrowers to repay their debts, we may encourage more individuals to pursue higher education and accumulate debt without the intention of paying it back. After all, why would they when it can be written off through higher taxes for everyone?
The ripple effect of this plan could be far-reaching.
It may make college more accessible for some, opening the floodgates for students and the need for universities to expand and hire more staff, leading to even higher college tuition. This perverse incentive will set a precedent that will create a cycle of soaring tuition, which would counteract the original goal of making higher education more affordable.
While the intention behind President Biden’s student loan forgiveness may appear noble (in likelihood, it is a rent-seeking move), the results may prove detrimental to our nation’s economic stability and fairness. And if the debt is monetized, more inflation will result.
Forgiving student loans will exacerbate existing problems, with the brunt of the burden falling on lower-income Americans. Instead of improving the situation, it will likely create an intricate web of financial consequences, indirectly affecting the very people it aims to help. But that is the result of most government programs with good intentions.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is president of Ginn Economic Consulting, chief economist or senior fellow at multiple state thinks across the country, host of the Let People Prosper Show, and previously the associate director for economic policy of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20. Follow him on X.com @VanceGinn.