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Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting

Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting

US index futures turned positive on Thursday, even as European stock slipped ahead of the ECB decision…

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Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting

US index futures turned positive on Thursday, even as European stock slipped ahead of the ECB decision at 745am ET, with Nasdaq 100 contracts outperforming as oil prices and bond yields stabilized and strategists at Goldman and JPMorgan gave more bullish comments on equities. Sentiment was boosted after Bloomberg reported that China’s crackdown on internet companies may be easing with a revival of the Ant Group IPO, which boosted the country’s US-traded stocks (the news was since refuted by China, but moments later Reuters re-reported what Bloomberg said). S&P 500 futures traded 22 points or 0.5% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futs were 0.4% higher. The dollar slid, and 10Y rates were flat at 3.02%.

Markets remain fixated on the risk that central banks intent on cooling inflation snuff out economic recoveries in the process. Money markets have priced in 36.5 basis points of tightening to the ECB’s rate by next month’s meeting, just short of a 50% chance of a half-a-percentage point increase, which would be the first since 2000.

“To rein in surging prices the Fed has to increase rates, which can result in a recession,” Geir Lode, head of global equities at Federated Hermes, wrote in a note. “However, the pandemic-induced supply-chain shock and the Ukraine conflict are beyond the central bank’s control. In this environment we need to be lucky to avoid stagflation that could last for a long time.”

While the ECB isn’t expected to raise official borrowing costs, President Christine Lagarde signaled in a blog post last month that the central bank will end bond purchases this month, and hike once in July and again in September, lifting the deposit rate from minus 0.5% to zero. Some investors see a new tone reaching beyond the official line as central bankers succumb to huge pressure to rein in record inflation at more than four times their target of 2%. Peers at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia have hiked in 50-basis point increments this year.

“Chances are that the ECB will have a hawkish pivot today,” Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said on Bloomberg Television.

In US premarket trading, Alibaba Group was among the best performers - at least initially - as it pumped, dumped and then rose again after several conflicting reports that Chinese regulators are considering a potential revival of the initial public offering by Jack Ma’s Ant Group.

Tesla gained 3% after an upgrade to Buy from UBS and after the company said its deliveries of cars made in China doubled in May compared with April and as UBS recommended buying the stock. Bank stocks also traded higher in premarket trading as the US 10-year Treasury yield hovered just above 3%. In corporate news, Credit Suisse shares dropped after its CEO Thomas Gottstein said he wouldn’t comment on State Street’s reported interest in the Swiss bank. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Five Below (FIVE US) shares decline 7.3% in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year guidance, while analysts trimmed their targets for the stock, but were broadly positive on the firm’s longterm prospects.
  • Spotify (SPOT US) shares could be in focus today as analysts were positive on the streaming giant’s forecast that its podcasting business will turn profitable as the company focuses on more non-music segments like audiobooks.
  • Travel stocks could be active on Thursday following Expedia CEO Peter Kern’s bullish comments on summer travel. Keep an eye on Delta (DAL US), United (UAL US), Marriott (MAR US), Expedia (EXPE US), Airbnb (ABNB US) and Booking Holdings (BKNG US) among others
  • Watch Oxford Industries (OXM US) shares after the company reported results, as Citi says that there is no sign of consumer weakness in any part of the branded apparel retailer’s business.
  • Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI US) stock may be in focus as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the discount retailer to outperform, saying that despite another tough quarter, its fundamentals should improve in the back-half and beyond.

In Europe, equities slipped ahead of a European Central Bank decision that will put the region’s monetary policy on a path of tightening and help close the gap with global peers. Real-estate companies and retailers led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 0.5% lower. EDF jumped the most in three months, after a newspaper report that the new French government is studying two options for the electricity giant’s nationalization, including a buyout offer. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • EDF shares rise as much as 8.3% after Les Echos newspaper reported that nationalization is among priorities for new government after this month’s legislative elections alongside combating inflation and pension reform.
  • Prosus gains as much as 7.4% in Amsterdam and Naspers gains as much as 6.8% in Johannesburg following a report that Chinese financial regulators are considering reviving the IPO of Jack Ma’s Ant Group.
  • Tate & Lyle advances as much as 4.4% after the company reported FY22 results that beat estimates. The FY23 outlook suggests upgrades to consensus estimates, according to Jefferies.
  • Beiersdorf rises as much as 7.8% after the company said in a Capital Markets Day presentation on its website that it targets above-market organic sales growth at its consumer unit in the medium term.
  • Credit Suisse drops as much as 4.9% after State Street declined to comment on a report that it was looking to acquire the Swiss bank. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse is tapping the brakes on its China expansion.
  • CMC Markets falls as much as 19% after cutting its dividend and saying it was boosting spending on new hires, product development and marketing as the firm seeks to diversify amid a fading retail trading boom.
  • Wizz Air drops as much as 8.3%, extending Wednesday’s 9.5% decline after the company gave guidance for an operating loss for the first quarter, while analysts also noted their concern about pricing trends.

Asian stocks slipped as technology and financial firms declined and higher oil prices stoked concerns about inflation.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, trimming its gain this week. Chip stocks declined after a warning on demand from Intel Corp., with the Hang Seng Tech Index sliding more than 1%, a breather after its recent rally. Australian banks were among the biggest contributors to the regional benchmark’s loss.  “We are seeing profit-taking moves after Chinese stocks rose a lot in recent sessions,” said Xue Hua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “There are also renewed concerns about the second-quarter corporate earnings.” Australia’s broad benchmark was among the biggest decliners in Asia Pacific as bank stocks slumped on concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks. Shares in Singapore and Malaysia also fell. South Korean equities erased early-day losses to close nearly flat on options expiry, while Japanese peers also finished little changed amid the yen’s extended weakness.  Read: Australian Bank Stocks Take $32 Billion Hit on Rate Concerns Stocks in much of the region held losses after data showed Chinese exports jumped more than expected in May, while a mini-lockdown weighed on market sentiment. Even with Thursday’s dip, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained on track for its fourth straight weekly gain, which would be its longest winning streak since early 2021

Japanese stocks traded in a narrow range as investors continued to worry about inflation and growth while the yen extended losses to a fresh 20-year low.  The Topix Index was virtually unchanged at 1,969.05 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was stable at 28,246.53. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 937 rose and 1,105 fell, while 128 were unchanged.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to close at 7,019.70, its lowest level since May 12. Banks contributed the most to the benchmark’s slump on growing concerns that faster monetary policy tightening might increase housing-market risks and pressure valuations.  Magellan was the top performer after saying co-founder Hamish Douglass will resume working with the business in a new consultancy role. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,211.31.

In India, stock gauges advanced for the first session in five, helped by a surge in Reliance Industries and energy companies on the improving outlook for refining margin and software exporters extending recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 55,320.28 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.7%. Both indexes are still headed for weekly drops of about 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, their first decline in four weeks. “With policy rate announcements now behind us, investors lapped up stocks that were in a downward spiral for quite some time,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said in a note. The market may witness select bouts, but volatility is expected to remain over the near-to-medium term, he added.  Reliance Industries provided the biggest boost to the key gauges, increasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 21 rose and 9 fell

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The euro fluctuated around $1.07. Bunds and Italian bonds swung between modest gains and losses. Options pricing in the euro and spot swings suggest not everyone is convinced that the euro will rally after the ECB meeting, which leaves ample room for an advance on a hawkish decision. The yen rebounded after touching a fresh two-decade low against the dollar and seven-year lows against the Australian dollar and the euro, as traders adjusted positions before the ECB. Speculators are gathering around the beleaguered yen and positioning is by no means extended, suggesting there’s still room for bears to pile in. The New Zealand dollar inched up and the nation’s 10-year yield hit a seven-year high after the RBNZ announced plans to offload QE bond holdings.

One beneficiary of a hawkish pivot by the ECB would be the euro. The common currency has been bogged down by concerns over euro-area growth while a resurgent dollar and hawkish Fed pushed it to a five-year low against the US currency last month. The euro traded little changed against the dollar at $1.07.
“If we do see Christine Lagarde leaning toward a 50 basis-points hike in July, that’s going to be very supportive of the euro-dollar,” Kong said.

In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield flatter ahead of ECB rate decision at 7:45am ET and 30-year bond reopening, the last of this week’s coupon auctions. 2-year TSY yields rose to 2.80%, highest level since May 4 YTD high. 10-year little changed at 3.02%, underperforming bunds while gilts trail. US front-end cheapening flattens 2s10s by ~1bp on the day toward lowest level since May 25; as previewed before, the ECB is expected to announce imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, opening the door for interest-rate hikes at the July meeting; swaps price in around 30bp of rate- hike premium. Looking at today's auction we have a $19BN 30-year bond reopening which follows Wednesday’s mediocre 10-year, which tailed by 1.2bp. WI 30-year yield at ~3.16% is above auction stops since 2018 and ~16bp cheaper than May’s, which stopped 0.9bp through.

German bonds and the euro are steady ahead of the ECB’s meeting later Thursday, where traders will look for clues on whether the bank will raise rates by 25bps or 50bps in July. Money markets don’t expect a hike today, and currently bet on 36bps next month, and about 132bps by the end of the year. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany.  Both gilt and Treasury curves flatten. 

In commodities, WTI trades within Wednesday’s range around the $122 level. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 2.9%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,850/oz

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,130.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 437.16
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 168.75
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 557.70
  • Nikkei little changed at 28,246.53
  • Topix little changed at 1,969.05
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 21,869.05
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,238.95
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 54,988.33
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,019.75
  • Kospi little changed at 2,625.44
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $123.07/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,848.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.62
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.0701

Top overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The ECB is set to announce an imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, paving the way for the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade next month
  • Traders are betting the BOE will deliver a historic half-point interest-rate hike by September to wrest control of inflation running at the fastest pace in four decades
  • Judging by the latest comments, the yen’s exchange rate still has some way to go before Japan’s finance ministry would consider intervention to prop up the currency via actual purchase operations, something it has avoided for more than two decades. With the US more likely to be against any moves to weaken the dollar, Japan faces the problem that actual intervention may not be effective
  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears to be counting on the Bank of Japan to keep borrowing costs near rock-bottom levels as his government paves the way for continued spending even after a record-breaking pandemic splurge and with the yen languishing at two-decade lows
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Breman said all options are on the table for the June policy meeting as speculation grows over whether the Swedish central bank needs to speed up its interest rate increases
  • China’s exports rebounded in May as Covid-related bottlenecks on production and logistics clear up, but a slowdown looms this year as global consumer demand for goods cools, weakening trade’s ability to act as a driver for economic growth

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were subdued following a weak handover from the US and with sentiment cautious. ASX 200 was pressured by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and weakness in property-related stocks also suffering amid expectations of aggressive RBA rate hikes which increases banks’ funding costs and could threaten the quality of their loan portfolios. Nikkei 225 kept afloat as participants contemplated the ramifications of further currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lacklustre despite the mostly better than expected Chinese trade data as some COVID concerns resurfaced in Shanghai with the city locking down the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID testing.

Asia headlines

  • Shanghai will lockdown the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg; additionally, Beijing's Chaoyang district is to close all entertainment venues from 14:00 local time (07:00BST) for COVID containment.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said China is guilty of unfair trade practices but some tariffs on Chinese goods do not serve US strategic interests and the Biden administration is looking to reconfigure tariffs in a way that would be more strategic, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japan is planning to expand its prefectural travel subsidies across the entire country, according to Yomiuri.
  • RBNZ outlined plans to sell New Zealand government bonds from July 2022 in which it intends to offload NZD 5bln per fiscal year in order of maturity date until its LSAP holdings are reduced to zero, according to Reuters.

Equities are, overall, struggling for clear direction in relatively cautious trade going into ECB; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Bourses, and US futures, were lifted amid further constructive China tech developments, this time for Ant Group; albeit, we have drifted modestly off best since, ES +0.3%. China is said to be mulling reviving Jack Ma's Ant IPO, with reports framing it as an easing in crackdowns from China, according to Bloomberg sources. *Click here for analysis/reaction. China PCA Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (May): -17.3% YY; Tesla (TSLA) 32.2k (prev. 33.5k YY). Walgreens Boots Alliance's (WBA) Boots has received a non-binding bid from Apollo Global Management and Reliance Industries, according to FT sources.

European headlines

  • Hawkish Lagarde Is Not Fully Priced In the Euro: ECB Cheat Sheet
  • Traders Bet BOE Will Join Peers in Historic Half-Point Rate Hike
  • European Gas Soars as Fire in US Compounds Russia Supply Concern
  • Italy’s Eni to List Renewable Unit Plenitude in Milan
  • FirstGroup Rejects £1.2 Billion Takeover Bid From I Squared

FX

  • Yen finally finds some friends amidst less hostile yield environment and supportive risk backdrop; USD/JPY retreats just over 100 pips around 134.00 and EUR/JPY almost 150 pips from 144.00+ peak.
  • DXY remains anchored around 102.500 ahead of Friday’s US CPI data and as Euro pivots 1.0700 pre-ECB; EUR/USD flanked by decent option expiries as well from 1.0750-55 to 1.0605-00 on the downside.
  • Kiwi underpinned after RBNZ outlines schedule for balance sheet rundown; NZD/USD hovers near 0.6450, AUD/NZD sub-1.1150 with AUD/USD capped into 0.7200.
  • Rand continues bull run with extra incentive from wider than forecast SA current account surplus, USD/ZAR straddling 15.2500.
  • Lira rout resumes following fleeting respite on prospect of capital controls raised by S&P, USD/TRY above 17.2200.
  • Yuan retains bulk of Chinese trade data related gains even though parts of Beijing and Shanghai reimpose restrictive Covid measures; USD/CNH closer to 6.6700 than 6.7100, USD/CNY settles sub-6.7000 vs circa 6.7000 high.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds choppy and lagging Eurozone periphery within 149.17-148.52 range pre-ECB, as focus falls on fragmentation along with rate and QE guidance
  • Gilts underperforming between 114.86-42 parameters as BoE tightening expectations rise and drag Sonia strip down
  • US Treasuries flat-lining ahead of jobless claims and long bond supply, with 10 year T-note just above par inside tight 118-07/117-26+ band

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are steady after giving up overnight gains with participants cautious and cognizant of China's fluid COVID situation.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are sub-USD 122/bbl and USD 123.50/bbl respectively, vs highs of 122.72 and 124.34.
  • Magnitude 5.6 earthquake hits the Antofagasta region in Chile, according to EMSC.
  • Spot gold is sub-USD1850/oz, having slipped below its falling 10-DMA but holding above the overlapping 200- & 21-DMAs at USD 1842/oz.

Central Banks

  • Riksbank's Breman says she will support doing what is required to attain the inflation target, including more hikes than are currently in the path; adding, to control inflation back to target, need to act now. Does not exclude a 50bps hike at the next meeting.
  •  
  • Hungarian Finance Minister says the Hungary has issued FX bonds totalling USD 3bln and EUR 750mln; follows the NBH maintaining its one-week deposit rate at 6.75%.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m
  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 206,000, prior 200,000
  • 12:00: 1Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5.3t

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I kicked off Day 1 of our annual European LevFin conference in London yesterday and we had a record attendance of over 1100 issuers and investors. It was the first in-person version since 2019 and if this conference is anything to go by, people still like the personal contacts that such an event brings. I also had a dinner at the event last night so I’m a bit shattered this morning so bear with me. This conference has been going now for 26 years at DB and the headline acts at the post conference entertainment have in the past included, The Killers, Duran Duran, Cheryl Crow, Dire Straits, The Corrs, The Sugababes, Stevie Wonder and Bon Jovi. Last night’s entertainment was a pub quiz. How times have changed.

If you think the above means Zoom is dead then think again, as I’ll be doing a Zoom webinar next Wednesday (June 15th) at 2pm on my annual Default Study (“The End of the ultra-low default world?”), published earlier this week, that I presented at the conference. Please click here to register, and here to see the report itself.

The day before this (June 14th), also at 2pm London time, a selection of our heads of trading and research desks will do a call on the near-term macro outlook across rates, FX, EM, equities and credit. Please click here to register.

As I recover from the heckling of telling High Yield investors that defaults are coming, we arrive at the business end of the week with a big 36 hours ahead with the ECB meeting today, and US CPI tomorrow, looming large! And then don’t forget the FOMC, BoE and BoJ meetings next week. Markets approach this busy period on the nervous side with rates and equities selling off over the last 24 hours, and that’s still the case in much of Asia in this morning’s trading.

Starting with Europe, sovereign bond yields hit fresh highs yesterday as investors have come to view a potential 50bp hike at some point this year as an increasingly likely possibility. In fact by the close of trade yesterday, overnight index swaps were pricing in 132bps worth of ECB hikes by the December meeting, which is the highest to date and more than double the 63bps of hikes expected after their last meeting in mid-April. So if they don’t hike until July as is widely expected, that implies at least one 50bp move is being fully priced in by year-end.

In their preview last week (link here), our European economists agreed with this assessment that a 50bp hike is likely soon, and their view is that one of the two hikes in Q3 will be a 50bp hike, with September being more likely than July. After that, they then see the ECB reverting to continuous back-to-back 25bp hikes until they reach a terminal deposit rate of 2% in mid-summer 2023, although there’s a risk of a second 50bp hike before policy rates reach neutral. In terms of today’s decision however, they expect the ECB to confirm that APP net purchases will cease at the end of June, and that their new staff forecasts will show inflation at 2.0% in 2024, thus satisfying the liftoff criteria. When it comes to new guidance, their view is that the three conditions for policy rate liftoff are likely to be replaced by new guidance on the speed and extent of the hiking cycle. And finally on TLTRO, they expect the end of the TLTRO discount to be confirmed and the ECB to pledge a smooth transmission of monetary tightening through the banking system.

With all that in mind, European yields moved higher through the day, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) and OATs (+7.0bps) both rising to their highest levels since 2014. The selloff was more pronounced among peripheral debt, with yields on 10yr Italian (+8.8bps) and Spanish (+8.2bps) debt seeing even larger rises, although the spread of both over bunds was still tighter than their recent peak last week. There are signs of growing nervousness elsewhere too, with EURUSD overnight implied volatility at its highest level right now since the US presidential election in November 2020. Meanwhile, those at the more hawkish end of the Governing Council received further support yesterday from data revisions, with Euro Area growth in Q1 revised up to show a +0.6% expansion (vs. +0.3% previously).

This investor concern about rate hikes and persistent inflation was bad news for equities, first in Europe where the STOXX 600 (-0.57%) fell for a second day running and then extending to a late sell-off across the Atlantic, where the S&P 500 fell -1.08%, with only energy (+0.15%) managing to end the day in the green. This brings the index to +0.18% for the week, as it enters yet another late week showdown to see if it can manage to stay in positive territory. The decline came as 10yr Treasuries eclipsed the 3% mark again, closing up +4.8bps at 3.02%, and we’re up another +1.5 bps higher this morning at 3.036%. The impact of tighter monetary policy extended beyond risk assets and showed some signs of being felt in the real economy, too, with the number of mortgage applications in the US falling to a 22-year low in the week ending June 3.

These inflationary worries for investors and central banks were aggravated further by a fresh rise in commodity prices. Oil prices saw further gains, and Brent Crude (+2.50%) moved back above $123/bbl again, inching ever closer to their post-invasion peak levels despite news of OPEC supply expansion and US reserve releases. That trend has continued this morning, with Brent crude up a further +0.33% at $123.98/bbl. WTI (+2.26%) moved above $122/bbl as well, so not far from its peak closing level following the invasion of $123.70/bbl. US natural gas prices displayed a lot of volatility, hitting a post-2008 high intraday before crashing into the close to finish down -6.39% following reports of a fire at a terminal used for exporting, keeping supplies stateside. European natural gas futures fell for a 6th consecutive session to hit another post-Ukraine invasion low of €78.41/MWh.

Those losses on Wall Street have carried over into Asia overnight as that rally in oil prices has ramped up worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. The Hang Seng (-0.24%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.49%) and the CSI 300 (-0.64%) are all in negative territory, as is the Kospi (-0.31%), although the Nikkei (+0.26%) is up as the weaker Yen has raised hopes for an earnings improvement. Indeed yesterday, the Yen fell a further -1.22% against the US Dollar to close at a 20-year low of 134.25 Yen per dollar, having at one point traded at an intraday low of 134.47. Bear in mind that its intraday low so far in the 21st century was at 135.15 back in January 2002, so we’re not far off reaching levels unseen since the 1990s, although this morning it’s strengthened a touch to 134.06. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US and Europe are pointing to additional losses today with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) and DAX (-0.44%) edging lower.

Finally on the data front, China’s May exports advanced +16.9% y/y, beating analyst estimates for a +8.0% rise and faster than the +3.9% increase in April. At the same time, the nation’s trade surplus grew to $78.76 bn in May, (vs. $57.7 bn expected) and compared to a $51.12 bn surplus in April. Separately, German industrial production grew by a weaker-than-expected +0.7% in April (vs. +1.2% expected), which comes on the back of an unexpected contraction in factory orders the previous day.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/09/2022 - 07:45

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Zero Young Healthy Individuals Died Of COVID-19, Israeli Data Show

Zero Young Healthy Individuals Died Of COVID-19, Israeli Data Show

Authored by Lia Onely via The Epoch Times,

Zero healthy individuals under…

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Zero Young Healthy Individuals Died Of COVID-19, Israeli Data Show

Authored by Lia Onely via The Epoch Times,

Zero healthy individuals under the age of 50 have died of COVID-19 in Israel, according to newly released data.

“Zero deceased of 18–49 years of age with no underlying morbidities,” the Israel Ministry of Health (MOH) said in response to a formal request from an attorney.

Officials noted that the statement only applies to COVID-19 deaths where the MOH conducted an epidemiological investigation and had received information about the underlying diseases.

“Zero is a very, very clear number, and cannot be subject to interpretation,”  Yoav Yehezkelli, a specialist in internal medicine and medical management, and former lecturer in the Department of Emergency and Disaster Management at Tel Aviv University in Israel, told The Epoch Times.

“Why were all the extreme measures of school closures, vaccination of children, and lockdowns needed?” he added.

The MOH did respond to a request for comment.

Freedom of Information Request

The information was sparked by a freedom of information request filed by attorney Ori Xabi, who has been filing several such requests as he seeks to obtain information from the MOH regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19 policies.

Xabi asked to know the average age of people who died of COVID-19, segmented by vaccination status at the time of death; how many COVID-19 patients with no underlying morbidities under the age of 50 died; and the annual number of cardiac arrest cases between 2018 to 2022.

According to the MOH response, the average age of vaccinated COVID-19 patients who died was 80.2 years. The average for the unvaccinated was 77.4 years.

The MOH emphasized that the data they have about the underlying diseases of patients is partial since it relies on information provided by the patients or their relatives, if they chose to do so. And then, only in cases in which the MOH conducted an epidemiological investigation.

Therefore “the available information does not necessarily reflect the health status of the patient” the MOH wrote adding that they do not have access to the patients’ medical records.

It is not clear why the MOH responded to Xabi’s request using only cases where the MOH had conducted an epidemiological investigation, and which was limited to deceased patients where the families had cooperated, since in 2020 the MOH told the Israeli Knesset—the Israeli parliament—that they use an intelligence system that provides the MOH with extensive information about deceased patients that included “underlying diseases.”

A document (pdf) from the Knesset Research and Information Center, dated June 7, 2020, stated that the MOH provided data to the Special Committee for the New COVID Virus about COVID-19 deaths—298 by that day at 4:30 p.m.—at the request of Yifat Shasha-Biton, a member of the Knesset, and the chair of that committee.

The ministry’s intelligence system has data on gender, age, district of residence, and the underlying diseases of the deceased, according to the document. The system showed that about 94 percent of the deceased were 60 years or older and that there were no deceased with zero underlying diseases.

In addition, on May 4, 2020, the Medical Directorate of the MOH in a letter (pdf) issued instructions to the heads of the hospitals and the medical departments of the Health Maintenance Organizations—national health care organizations—on how to fill out COVID-19 death notices, directing them to include underlying diseases.

In a December 22, 2020 letter (pdf) the Medical Directorate to the managers of the hospitals stated that for every COVID-19 patient who died during the acute phase or due to complications of the illness later, or people who were positive for COVID-19 who died, a death notice and a summary of the case “must be sent to the COVID war room of the MOH.”

They said the purpose was “to improve surveillance.”

“It’s a bit naive” for the MOH to say they do not have the full data and access to the death certificates said Yehezkelli, who was also a founder of a team that advises the MOH’s director general.

Yet this response from the MOH is meaningful, said Yehezkelli as “it finally reveals the truth.”

A health worker administers a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to a pregnant woman at Clalit Health Services, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Jan. 23, 2021. (Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images)

‘False Presentation’

Studies and other data, including a study led by Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis, show that COVID-19 mortality, even with the original variant, was largely age-dependent.

“It was definitely a disease that actually only endangered the elderly,” Yehezkelli said.

Over the age of 60, mortality doubled every 5 years while under that age mortality was negligible, and “now we really see that it was zero under the age of 50, at least.”

The MOH’s response showed that the average age of the COVID-19 deceased is about 80 years of age, which also indicates that “this is a disease of the elderly, almost exclusively,” said Yehezkelli.

“That only means that what we were told for 3 years was not true,” he said.

There may not have been many young people who got seriously ill, yet the MOH had emphasized cases of pregnant women hospitalized in critical condition and young healthy people who died because of COVID-19. It was not the true situation, he said.

“They created a false presentation of a very severe epidemic that affects the entire population and therefore the entire population should also be vaccinated, regardless of age,” said Yehezkelli.

If we are talking about people under the age of 50 that means that no pregnant women actually died of COVID-19, he said.

The justification given for vaccinating pregnant women, young people, and children was that they too are affected by COVID-19.

It was known back then that this was not the case “and we now see it clearly,” Yehezkelli said, asserting that the MOH has “lost the public’s trust” by making a “false presentation” of the dangers of COVID-19.

Cardiac Arrest Data

In response to Xabi’s recent FOI, the MOH provided the number of cardiac arrest cases from 2018 to 2020. They added, “The information for the years 2021–2022 does not exist in the office.”

The MOH explained that “The registration of the causes of death of deceased persons is carried out, in accordance with the notification of death,” by the Central Bureau of Statistics, adding “the data for the years 2021–2022 have not yet been transferred to the Ministry of Health.”

study published in April 2022 that analyzed the dataset of the Israel National Emergency Medical Services (EMS) found a 25 percent increase in EMS calls due to cardiac arrests among 16- to 39-year-olds between January–May 2021.

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout began in December 2020.

Retsef Levi, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management, was one of the researchers of the study.

The MOH objected to the findings of the study in a post on Twitter where they said that “there is no connection between the EMS calls that were analyzed in the study and the COVID vaccines.”

In a MOH webinar on Oct. 8, 2021, about the effectiveness and the safety of the COVID vaccines, Dr. Sharon Elroy-Pries, the head of Public Health Services at the Israel MOH said regarding Levi’s study: “This is one of the biggest fake news I have seen.”

“The National Center for Disease Control did a very comprehensive analysis—including of the data of that study, [which were] EMS calls,” she said adding that “there was nothing. No more [cases of] heart attacks. No more calls to the ER.”

She continued by saying that “in the mortality data from the beginning of 2021, you don’t see an increase in mortality except for COVID mortality. That is, if we look at excess mortality in the State of Israel we see it precisely at the peaks that were peaks of [COVID] morbidity in the State of Israel.”

“When you remove the … morbidity from COVID at all ages, one sees either the same mortality rate as in previous years, or less,” she said, adding “there is no increase in heart attacks here.”

Sharon Alroy-Preis, the head of Public Health Services at the Israel Ministry of Health at the Health Committee meeting to discuss special powers to deal with COVID-19 in Jerusalem on Feb. 6, 2023. (Dani Shem Tov / Knesset)

In a February 2023 meeting of the Health Committee of the Knesset for extending the COVID special powers law, Elroy-Pries reiterated that the MOH does have access to COVID mortality data.

“COVID has killed over 12,000 people in the State of Israel,” she said at the meeting, explaining further that this figure is known since “from the beginning of the epidemic, the Medical Directorate received people’s death certificates.”

When asked about whether there is an increase in cardiac arrest cases in Israel among young people, Elroy-Pries said, “We do not see an increase in the death of young people,” adding “We’re checking it. We’re looking for it.”

Levi said to The Epoch Times that the MOH attacked him personally and the EMS, and asked “If they don’t have data for 2021 and 2022 [according to the FOI], then how can they know that they don’t have an increase [in cardiac arrests]?”

When the MOH says things that are contrary to science, said Levi, or are “contrary to the facts on a regular basis, you must ask yourself the question: are they doing it because they didn’t bother to read the science, or are they doing it even though they … read the science.”

“Both scenarios are very serious,” he added.

Vaccines Saved ‘Millions Around the World’: MOH

The MOH did not reply to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Yet about 2 hours after sending the request on May 25, the agency posted on its Twitter account a statement regarding Xabi’s FOI.

“Following the manipulation that has been taking place in recent days regarding one of the Ministry of Health’s [reply to] Freedom of Information requests, we will clarify that the answers to the requests submitted under the Freedom of Information Law are, naturally, answered directly to the specific question that was asked.

“In this case, the ministry was asked about mortality data and underlying diseases. The Ministry of Health ‘does not have’ access to the medical file [of patients], therefore information is only based on cases where an epidemiological investigation was carried out and the person or his family answered the question [regarding underlying morbidities]. Therefore, this is very limited information. This was of course clearly written in the answer [to the FOI].

“We will clarify: So far, 356 young people (18–49 years of age) have died of COVID.

“Of these, only about half have documentation of an epidemiological investigation (184 deceased).

“And only 7.5% (27 deceased) included an answer to the question regarding underlying diseases. The answer was provided based on this information.

“The Ministry of Health is committed to maintaining the health of all citizens and making the information available in the Ministry transparently. This is how we acted [so far] and will continue to act.

“We must not forget that the COVID epidemic has so far killed more than 12,500 people in Israel, caused severe and critical morbidity, and post-COVID symptoms that accompany some of those recovering to this day.

“The vaccination campaign began in the midst of a third lockdown that resulted from an increase in morbidity and mortality and the opening of the economy was made possible thanks to the activation of the green passport, which its purpose was to reduce the risk of infection in mass events.

“The vaccines have saved thousands of people in the state of Israel and millions around the world—the attempt to rewrite history is dangerous.”

Following an administrative appeal filed by Xabi and colleagues, the MOH committed to publishing all-cause mortality segmented by vaccination status and age by the end of this month.

This appeal is an ongoing case that followed a FOI request submitted to the MOH on Oct. 10, 2021, which was not answered within the time frame according to Israeli law, and the data provided by the agency during a number of hearings since has been incomplete.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/29/2023 - 06:20

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‘The Official Truth’: The End Of Free Speech That Will End America

‘The Official Truth’: The End Of Free Speech That Will End America

Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,

If legacy news corporations…

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'The Official Truth': The End Of Free Speech That Will End America

Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,

If legacy news corporations fail to report that large majorities of the American public now view their journalistic product as straight-up propaganda, does that make it any less true?

According to a survey by Rasmussen Reports, 59% of likely voters in the United States view the corporate news media as "truly the enemy of the people." This is a majority view, held regardless of race: "58% of whites, 51% of black voters, and 68% of other minorities" — all agree that the mainstream media has become their "enemy."

This scorching indictment of the Fourth Estate piggybacks similar polling from Harvard-Harris showing that Americans hold almost diametrically opposing viewpoints from those that news corporations predominantly broadcast as the official "truth."

Drawing attention to the divergence between the public's perceived reality and the news media's prevailing "narratives," independent journalist Glenn Greenwald dissected the Harvard-Harris poll to highlight just how differently some of the most important issues of the last few years have been understood. While corporate news fixated on purported Trump-Russia collusion since 2016, majorities of Americans now see this story "as a hoax and a fraud."

While the news media hid behind the Intelligence Community's claims that Hunter Biden's potentially incriminating laptop (allegedly containing evidence of his family's influence-peddling) was a product of "Russian disinformation" and consequently enforced an information blackout on the explosive story during the final weeks of the 2020 presidential election, strong majorities of Americans currently believe the laptop's contents are "real." In other words, Americans have correctly concluded that journalists and spies advanced a "fraud" on voters as part of an effort to censor a damaging story and "help Biden win." Nevertheless, The New York Times and The Washington Post have yet to return the Pulitzer Prizes they received for reporting totally discredited "fake news."

Similarly, majorities of Americans suspect that President Joe Biden has used the powers of his various offices to profit from influence-peddling schemes and that the FBI has intentionally refrained from investigating any possible Biden crimes. Huge majorities of Americans, in fact, seem not at all surprised to learn that the FBI has been caught abusing its own powers to influence elections, and are strongly convinced that "sweeping reform" is needed. Likewise, large majorities of Americans have "serious doubts about Biden's mental fitness to be president" and suspect that others behind the scenes are "puppeteers" running the nation.

Few, if any, of these poll results have been widely reported. In a seemingly-authoritarian disconnect with the American people, corporate news media continue to ignore the public's majority opinion and instead "relentlessly advocate" those viewpoints that Americans "reject." When journalists fail to investigate facts and deliberately distort stories so that they fit snugly within preconceived worldviews, reporters act as propagandists.

Constitutional law scholar Jonathan Turley recently asked, "Do we have a de facto state media?" In answering his own question, he notes that the news blackout surrounding congressional investigations into Biden family members who have allegedly received more than ten million dollars in suspicious payments from foreign entities "fits the past standards used to denounce Russian propaganda patterns and practices." After Republican members of Congress traced funds to nine Biden family members "from corrupt figures in Romania, China, and other countries," Turley writes, "The New Republic quickly ran a story headlined 'Republicans Finally Admit They Have No Incriminating Evidence on Joe Biden.'"

Excoriating the news media's penchant for mindlessly embracing stories that hurt former President Donald Trump while simultaneously ignoring stories that might damage President Biden, Turley concludes:

"Under the current approach to journalism, it is the New York Times that receives a Pulitzer for a now debunked Russian collusion story rather than the New York Post for a now proven Hunter Biden laptop story."

Americans now evidently view the major sources for their news and information as part of a larger political machine pushing particular points of view, unconstrained by any ethical obligation to report facts objectively or dispassionately seek truth. That Americans now see the news media in their country as serving a similar role as Pravda did for the Soviet Union's Communist Party is a significant departure from the country's historic embrace of free speech and traditional fondness for a skeptical, adversarial press.

Rather than taking a step back to consider the implications such a shift in public perception will have for America's future stability, some officials appear even more committed to expanding government control over what can be said and debated online. After the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in the wake of public backlash over First Amendment concerns, halted its efforts to construct an official "disinformation governance board" last year, the question remained whether other government attempts to silence or shape online information would rear their head. The wait for that answer did not take long.

The government apparently took the public's censorship concerns so seriously that it quietly moved on from the collapse of its plans for a "disinformation governance board" within the DHS and proceeded within the space of a month to create a new "disinformation" office known as the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which now operates from within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Although ostensibly geared toward countering information warfare arising from "foreign" threats, one of its principal objectives is to monitor and control "public opinion and behaviors."

As independent journalist Matt Taibbi concludes of the government's resurrected Ministry of Truth:

"It's the basic rhetorical trick of the censorship age: raise a fuss about a foreign threat, using it as a battering ram to get everyone from Congress to the tech companies to submit to increased regulation and surveillance. Then, slowly, adjust your aim to domestic targets."

If it were not jarring enough to learn that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has picked up the government's speech police baton right where the DHS set it down, there is ample evidence to suggest that officials are eager to go much further in the near future. Democrat Senator Michael Bennet has already proposed a bill that would create a Federal Digital Platform Commission with "the authority to promulgate rules, impose civil penalties, hold hearings, conduct investigations, and support research."

Filled with "disinformation" specialists empowered to create "enforceable behavioral codes" for online communication — and generously paid for by the Biden Administration with taxpayers' money — the special commission would also "designate 'systemically important digital platforms' subject to extra oversight, reporting, and regulation" requirements. Effectively, a small number of unelected commissioners would have de facto power to monitor and police online communication.

Should any particular website or platform run afoul of the government's First Amendment Star Chamber, it would immediately place itself within the commission's crosshairs for greater oversight, regulation, and punishment.

Will this new creation become an American KGB, Stasi or CCP — empowered to target half the population for disagreeing with current government policies, promoting "wrongthink," or merely going to church? Will a small secretive body decide which Americans are actually "domestic terrorists" in the making? US Attorney General Merrick Garland has gone after traditional Catholics who attend Latin mass, but why would government suspicions end with the Latin language? When small commissions exist to decide which Americans are the "enemy," there is no telling who will be designated as a "threat" and punished next.

It is not difficult to see the dangers that lie ahead. Now that the government has fully inserted itself into the news and information industry, the criminalization of free speech is a very real threat. This has always been a chief complaint against international institutions such as the World Economic Forum that spend a great deal of time, power, and money promoting the thoughts and opinions of an insular cabal of global leaders, while showing negligible respect for the personal rights and liberties of the billions of ordinary citizens they claim to represent.

WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab has gone so far as to hire hundreds of thousands of "information warriors" whose mission is to "control the Internet" by "policing social media," eliminating dissent, disrupting the public square, and "covertly seed[ing] support" for the WEF's "Great Reset." If Schwab's online army were not execrable enough, advocates for free speech must also gird themselves for the repercussions of Elon Musk's appointment of Linda Yaccarino, reportedly a "neo-liberal wokeist" with strong WEF affiliations, as the new CEO of Twitter.

Throughout much of the West, unfortunately, free speech has been only weakly protected when those with power find its defense inconvenient or messages a nuisance. It is therefore of little surprise to learn that French authorities are now prosecuting government protesters for "flipping-off" President Emmanuel Macron. It does not seem particularly astonishing that a German man has been sentenced to three years in prison for engaging in "pro-Russian" political speech regarding the war in Ukraine. It also no longer appears shocking to read that UK Technology and Science Secretary Michelle Donelan reportedly seeks to imprison social media executives who fail to censor online speech that the government might subjectively adjudge "harmful." Sadly, as Ireland continues to find new ways to punish citizens for expressing certain points of view, its movement toward criminalizing not just speech but also "hateful" thoughts should have been predictable.

From an American's perspective, these overseas encroachments against free speech — especially within the borders of closely-allied lands — have seemed sinister yet entirely foreign. Now, however, what was once observed from some distance has made its way home; it feels as if a faraway communist enemy has finally stormed America's beaches and come ashore in force.

Not a day seems to go by without some new battlefront opening up in the war on free speech and free thought. The Richard Stengel of the Council on Foreign Relations has been increasingly vocal about the importance of journalists and think tanks to act as "primary provocateurs" and "propagandists" who "have to" manipulate the American population and shape the public's perception of world events. Senator Rand Paul has alleged that the DHS uses at least 12 separate programs to "track what Americans say online," as well as to engage in social media censorship.

As part of its efforts to silence dissenting arguments, the Biden administration is pursuing a policy that would make it unlawful to use data and datasets that reflect accurate information yet lead to "discriminatory outcomes" for "protected classes." In other words, if the data is perceived to be "racist," it must be expunged. At the same time, the Department of Justice has indicted four radical black leftists for having somehow "weaponized" their free speech rights in support of Russian "disinformation." So, objective datasets can be deemed "discriminatory" against minorities, while actual discrimination against minorities' free speech is excused when that speech contradicts official government policy.

Meanwhile, the DHS has been exposed for paying tens of millions of dollars to third-party "anti-terrorism" programs that have not so coincidentally equated Christians, Republicans, and philosophical conservatives to Germany's Nazi Party. Similarly, California Governor Gavin Newsom has set up a Soviet-style "snitch line" that encourages neighbors to report on each other's public or private displays of "hate."

Finally, ABC News proudly admits that it has censored parts of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s interviews because some of his answers include "false claims about the COVID-19 vaccines." Essentially, the corporate news media have deemed Kennedy's viewpoints unworthy of being transmitted and heard, even though the 2024 presidential candidate is running a strong second behind Joe Biden in the Democrat primary, with around 20% support from the electorate.

Taken all together, it is clear that not only has the war on free speech come to America, but also that it is clobbering Americans in a relentless campaign of "shock and awe." And why not? In a litigation battle presently being waged over the federal government's extensive censorship programs, the Biden administration has defended its inherent authority to control Americans' thoughts as an instrumental component of "government infrastructure." What Americans think and believe is openly referred to as part of the nation's "cognitive infrastructure" — as if the Matrix movies were simply reflecting real life.

Today, America's mainstream news corporations are already viewed as processing plants that manufacture political propaganda. That is an unbelievably searing indictment of a once-vibrant free press in the United States. It is also, unfortunately, only the first heavy shoe to drop in the war against free speech. Many Chinese-Americans who survived the Cultural Revolution look around the country today and see similarities everywhere. During that totalitarian "reign of terror," everything a person did was monitored, including what was said while asleep.

In an America now plagued with the stench of official "snitch lines," censorship of certain presidential candidates, widespread online surveillance, a resurrected "disinformation governance board," and increasingly frequent criminal prosecutions targeting Americans who exercise their free speech, the question is not whether what we inaudibly think or say in our sleep will someday be used against us, but rather how soon that day will come unless we stop it. After all, with smartphones, smart TVs, "smart" appliances, video-recording doorbells, and the rise of artificial intelligence, somebody, somewhere is always listening.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/28/2023 - 23:00

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Never Short a Dull Market; AI is Sexy, But Everyone Hates Oil

There’s an old adage of Wall Street, which says: "never short a dull market." And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about…

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There's an old adage of Wall Street, which says: "never short a dull market." And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about as dull as it gets. This, of course, brings the energy sector to the top of my contrarian alert list.

This is not to say that I'm buying oil-related assets with both hands. It just means that, at this point, it makes more sense to look at energy as a value asset, as it is oversold and ripe for a move up whenever the right set of variables required to deliver such a move line up just right.

In the current world, the variables could line up just right as early as today.

There are No Oil Bulls Left

Nobody loves oil.

The level of bearishness expressed by futures traders is at least equal to where it was during the pandemic, and after the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapse. The International Energy Agency (IEA), forecasts that, of the expected $2.8 trillion in energy investments for 2023, roughly $1.7 trillion will be allocated to low carbon energy sources, including nuclear, solar, and other potential sources. Only $1.1 trillion will be invested in fossil fuels.

And according to the Financial Times, auctioneers in Texas are trying to unload two brand new fracking rigs, which together cost $70 million, for a starting combined bid of just below $17 million.

Supply is the Primary Influence on Oil Prices

Meanwhile, oil companies are quietly merging with competitors, and exploration outside the United States is continuing aggressively, with new discoveries being frequently announced. 

Simultaneously, the U.S. active rig count is slowly falling, led by natural gas. The price of gasoline is steadily rising, as the market begins to price in future supply reductions. Just in my neck of the woods, regular unleaded is up some $0.32 in the last week alone.

That doesn't sound like an industry that's planning on fading away. It sounds like an industry that's hunkering down and waiting for better times and preparing to squeeze supply in order to boost prices.

Charting the Oil Sector

The price chart for West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark (WTIC), shows the depressed price picture which has led investors to walk away. And, until proven otherwise, there are plenty of sellers at the $75-$80 price area, where a sizeable Volume by Price bar highlights the point of resistance.

At first glance, there little difference in the general price behavior for Brent Crude, the European benchmark. (BRENT) where there is a resistance band defined by VBP bars between $80 and $90. A closer look reveals an uptick in Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and the semblance of some nibbling in On Balance Volume (OBV). It's subtle, but it's there.

The oil stocks are far from a bull trend. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is trading below its 200-day moving average, facing resistance put from $78 to $90 (VBP bars).

So why bother? Simply stated, OPEC has an upcoming meeting on June 3-4. The cartel is not happy about the prices and the way things are evolving. The Saudi oil minister recently warned bearish speculators to "watch out." And my gut is doing flips when I think about oil, as I see gasoline prices creep up when I drive to work.

But mostly, it's because there are no oil bulls left. This is what we saw in the technology sector a few months ago before its current rally. In early 2023, the tech sector was pronounced dead. The stories were all about the technology sector shuddering as the economy slowed. How about this one, from March 2023, which breathlessly announced a 5.2% decrease in semiconductor sales on a month to month basis and an 18.5% year to year drop?

Yet, as validated by the recent AI-fueled rally, the bad news first marked a bottom, while preceding a significant move up in tech shares.

Never short a dull market.

I've recently recommended several energy sector picks. You can have a look at them with a free trial to my service. In addition, I've posted a Special Report on the oil market which you can gain access to here.

Bond and Mortgage Roller Coaster Reverses Course

Expect negative news about the effect of rising mortgage rates on the homebuilder industry. That's because, as the chart below illustrates, there is a tight and very close correlation between rising bond yields, mortgage rates, and the homebuilder stocks (SPHB).

Moreover, the rise above 3.75% on the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) has triggered headlines about mortgage rates climbing above 7%. What the news isn't reporting is that, once bond yields roll over, which they are likely to do at some point in the future when the economy shows more signs of slowing and the Fed finally admits that they must pause, is that mortgage rates will drop and demand for new homes will once again pick up. Thus, we will see the homebuilders pick up where they left off.

As things stood last week, SPHB seems to have made a short term bottom.

For now, expect a continuation of the backing and filling in the homebuilder stocks. But, if I'm right and bond yields reverse course, the homebuilders are likely to rally again.

For an in-depth comprehensive outlook on the homebuilder sector click here.

NYAD Holds Above 200-Day Moving Average. SPX Joins NDX in Breaking Out. Liquidity is Shrinking.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) tested its 200-day moving average on an intra-week basis but did not break below the key technical level. On the other hand, NYAD remained below its 50-day moving average, which is still an intermediate-term negative.

Moreover, with the major indexes (see below) breaking out to new highs, we remain in a technical divergence as the market's breadth is lagging the action in the indexes. This is of some concern, given the fade in the market's liquidity, as I point out below.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) extended its recent breakout, closing the week well above 14,200. The current move is unsustainable, so some sort of pullback and consolidation are likely over the next few days to weeks. Both ADI and OBV remain encouraging.

What's more bullish is that the S&P 500 (SPX) finally broke out above the 4100–4200 trading range on 5/24/23. On Balance Volume (OBV) is perking up while the Accumulation Distribution (ADI) indicator is very encouraging.

We may be seeing a shift from a short-covering rally to a fear-of-missing-out buyer's rally.

VIX Holds Steady

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained below 20, as it has since March 2023. This remains a positive for the markets, as it shows short sellers are staying away at the moment.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity is Getting Squeezed

The market's liquidity is now in a downtrend. The Eurodollar Index (XED) is now below 94.5, and looks weak. A move above 95 will be a bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks.


To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I've made my NYAD-Complexity - Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.


Joe Duarte

In The Money Options


Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe's exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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