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Futures Reverse Losses, Hit Session HIghs Alongside Oil Despite China Covid Curbs

Futures Reverse Losses, Hit Session HIghs Alongside Oil Despite China Covid Curbs

After trading in the red for much of the overnight session,…

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Futures Reverse Losses, Hit Session HIghs Alongside Oil Despite China Covid Curbs

After trading in the red for much of the overnight session, US futures inched higher shortly after the European open after a volatile session in Asia marked by rising Covid cases in China, while a Fed president turned dovish and showed openness to slowing the path of rate hikes. Futures on the S&P 500 traded near session highs, up 0.4% to 3,972 by 8:00 a.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1% after struggling for direction. 

Stocks in Hong Kong and Mainland China slipped as China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record, although a bounce in Japanese stocks pushed overall Asian markets higher. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose, led by energy shares. The dollar weakened against all major currencies and Treasury yields declined. Crude oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia pushed back against reports of a potential OPEC+ production increase. Bitcoin's gradual, methodic slide continued interrupted by occasional bouts of ungradual, unmethodic panic liquidations.

In premarket trading, Zoom Video dropped after the firm reported its slowest quarterly sales growth on record and trimmed full-year revenue forecasts. Chinese stocks listed in US fell after a ramp-up in Covid restrictions to curb a spike in virus cases across China. Pinduoduo -2.4%, Trip.com -0.6%, Bilibili -2.8%, Nio -2.5%, Li Auto -3.9%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Blackstone shares fall 2.5% in US premarket trading as Credit Suisse cut its rating to underperform from neutral and said that it is awaiting a better entry point for US alternative asset manager stocks.
  • Alibaba shares pare losses in US premarket trading after Reuters reported that Chinese authorities are set to hand down a fine of over $1 billion for Jack Ma’s Ant Group, an event market watchers see as an end to Beijing’s prolonged investigation into the fintech firm and a first step to restarting its IPO.
  • GameStop shares swing between slight gains and losses in US premarket trading, following a Bloomberg report that billionaire investor Carl Icahn was said to hold a large short position in the video-game retailer.
  • Dell Technologies stock slipped 2% in postmarket trading on Monday as the computer company’s revenue forecasts for the current quarter missed estimates, as economic uncertainty begins to affect information technology customers.
  • Keep an eye on Amazon.com after its price target was cut at Piper Sandler as AWS revenue decelerates along with an industry-wide slowdown at major cloud computing firms. The brokerage notes, however, that while “industry growth ticks down, AWS leadership remains.”
  • Watch Activision Blizzard as Baird raised the recommendation on the stock to outperform from neutral, while downgrading Airbnb, Carvana and Vroom all to neutral since these companies are exposed to pullbacks in discretionary “high ticket” purchases.
  • Keep an eye on software stocks, including Workday and Coupa Software as Morgan Stanley cuts price targets across the sector, with analyst saying that consensus estimates for 2023 are likely too high while customer IT budgets are set to be reduced.

"Market sentiment remains toneless for the second trading day of the week as most investors are still struggling to assess the short- to mid-term outlook for risky assets," said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Despite the market starting to price in a potential slowing in rate hikes, some Fed officials have moved to temper these anticipations by reiterating their will to tackle inflation, and that this goal was far from being achieved.”

Fed officials continued to highlight the need to curb inflation but hinted that a slower pace of hikes could be possible. On Monday, San Fran Fed President Mary Daly said officials need to be mindful of the lags with which monetary policy works, while repeating that she sees interest rates rising to at least 5%. Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she has no problem with slowing down the central bank’s rapid rate increases when officials meet next month.

“Markets get jittery whenever the Federal Reserve is due to speak or issue important information,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “With the central bank set to publish the minutes from its November meeting tomorrow, equity investors need to brace themselves for the Fed to say it is likely to keep raising rates to tame inflation, even though October’s consumer prices figure was below expectations.”

After this quarter’s 10% rally in the S&P 500, Goldman strategists expressed skepticism about US stocks returns next year, setting a 4000 points target for the benchmark by Dec. 2023 as earnings growth stalls. “Zero earnings growth will match zero appreciation in the S&P 500,” strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note on Tuesday. Then again, the same David Kostin said excatly one year ago that the S&P would close 2022 at 5,100 so expect him to be dead wrong again.

In Europe,  Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2%, with energy stocks the best-performing sector as crude advanced after Saudi Arabia denied report of discussion about OPEC+ oil-output hike. BP rose 5.3% and Repsol was 6% higher after both stocks got analyst upgrades. Hong Kong stocks slid as China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record. Covid-control restrictions now affect a fifth of China’s economy. Still, the eventual easing by China of its curbs to counter the virus are likely to mean that European profits will hold up relatively well because of the benefits to luxury and mining companies, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. Here are some of the notable European movers:

  • AO World shares jumped as much as 17%, to the highest since early July, after the online appliances retailer raised its FY adjusted Ebitda forecast.
  • Verbund rose as much as 8.2% after Stifel upgraded the utility company to buy from hold, saying conditions of Austria’s price cap are “much better” than had been anticipated.
  • Allfunds shares fell as much as 11% after a discounted share offering by holders LHC3 and BNP Paribas in the mutual-fund distributor.
  • Shares in digital price-tag maker SES- imagotag fell as much as 6%, before paring the drop, after majority shareholder BOE Smart Retail offered 1.5 million shares at a 7.3% discount to the last close.
  • ThyssenKrupp declined as much as 5.9% after holder Cevian offered ~23.4m shares via UBS with price guidance of €5.15 apiece, representing a 4.7% discount to last close.
  • Vodafone shares fell as much as 3.4% after the telecoms group was double-downgraded to underperform from outperform at Credit Suisse, which cited a growing risk to the dividend and elevated costs weighing on its outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as the yen’s recent weakness boosted Japanese exporters, offsetting losses in Chinese tech shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with Japanese firms Toyota, Sony and Mitsubishi helping lift the gauge along with Taiwan’s TSMC. Up more than 10% this month, the MSCI Asian stock benchmark has outperformed its US or European peers in November thanks to China’s rally.  Among sectors, energy and industrials advanced the most, while communication services and consumer discretionary shares edged lower. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell for another day, as a worsening outbreak on the mainland raised doubts as to whether authorities can hold on to their softer Covid Zero stance. A rally this month fueled by reopening hopes has now come to a halt as investors come to terms with China’s Covid reality.  “As we’ve seen in the Covid issues in China, it’s going to be stop-go sort of news flow in terms of the lockdowns et cetera and that’s going to add volatility to markets,” Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Japan equities climbed as the yen’s retreat over the past four days supported exporters’ shares in the face of concerns over China’s Covid Zero policy and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.   The Topix rose 1.1% to 1,994.75 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.6% to 28,115.74. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,737 rose and 366 fell, while 62 were unchanged. “There is an impression that the market will be quiet with no major selloffs ahead of the Japanese and US holidays,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities. “In some aspects, it is difficult for the stock market to fall as investors find it hard to make a move.” 

Stocks in Malaysia fell for a second day after Saturday’s election produced the country’s first-ever hung parliament. Australia’s equity benchmark rose to a five-month high buoyed by miners.The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,181.30, its highest since June 6, driven by a rebound in mining and energy shares.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,420.42. New Zealand’s central bank is poised to raise interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points on Wednesday, accelerating its monetary tightening to get inflation under control. Elsewhere, markets were mixed with moderate gains or losses. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback fell against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies and the Norwegian krone were the top performers. CFTC data showed that speculative and institutional traders turned their back to the dollar yet again last week as the currency stayed under pressure. At the same time, one-month risk reversals in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallied in favor of the topside.

  • The euro rose versus the greenback but underperformed most of its major peers. Bunds slipped and Italian bonds inched lower.
  • The pound rose against a broadly weaker dollar and was steady against the euro. Data showed UK government borrowing grew less than forecast in October, ahead of a testimony in Parliament by officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
  • The yen rose for the first time in five days after remarks from some Federal Reserve officials solidified bets for smaller US rate hikes. Japan’s yield curve steepened a tad ahead of a local holiday. One-week risk reversals in dollar-yen traded earlier at 24 basis points in favor of the Japanese currency, which marked the least bearish sentiment for the greenback in more than a month.

In rates, Treasuries ground higher leaving yields near session lows into the early US session with 10-year at around 3.79%. Bunds and gilts both lag Treasuries, trading slightly cheaper over early London session. US session focus is on Fed speakers and conclusion of this week’s auctions with a 7-year sale at 1pm.  Treasury 10-year yields outperforming bunds and gilts by ~5bp on the day. Long-end of the Treasuries curve underperforms, steepening 10s30s spread by 2.5bp on the day.  This week’s auctions conclude with $35b 7-year note sale at 1pm, follows Monday’s double auction of 2- and 5-year notes.

In commodities, it has been a contained session for the crude complex after yesterday’s WSJ fake news-prompted rollercoaster, with benchmarks higher by around 1% amid further pushback to the production increase report. Kuwait Oil Minister has pushed back against reports of any discussions over OPEC+ raising production at its next meeting, according to the State news agency; Iraq's SOMO says no discussions have taken place over an increase at the next OPEC meeting. China has reportedly paused the purchase of some Russian oil, awaiting details of the price cap to see if it provides a better price. Spot gold and silver are firmer, with the yellow metal at session highs just below the USD 1750/oz mark as risk sentiment struggles to find firm direction and the USD continues to pullback. For reference, the current spot gold peak of USD 1748/oz is shy of the 10-DMA at USD 1755/oz and still some way from the 200-DMA at USD 1801/oz.

Cryptocurrency prices were mixed, with investors braced for more ructions as further digital-asset sector bankruptcies loom following the demise of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire.

Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Holzmann, Rehn and Nagel. Data releases include Euro Area consumer confidence for November, as well as the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Lastly, the OECD will be releasing their Economic Outlook.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,964.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 435.56
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 151.12
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 486.08
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,115.74
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,994.75
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,424.41
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,088.94
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 61,380.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,181.30
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,405.27
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.99%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0272
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $88.04/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,745.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 107.46

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • More than six years after voting to leave the EU, the UK is facing a prolonged recession, a deep cost-of-living crisis and a shortage of workers. Last week’s Autumn Statement heralded years of higher taxes and cuts to public spending
  • The ECB needs to maintain the pace of rate increases at its next meeting on Dec. 15 to demonstrate policy makers are “serious” about taming inflation, Financial Times reports, citing an interview with Robert Holzmann, governor of the National Bank of Austria and member of the ECB’s governing council
  • Germany will introduce a cap on gas and electricity prices for companies and households as Europe’s largest economy seeks to contain the fallout from Russia’s moves to slash energy supplies. Large parts of German industry will no longer be able to avoid production cuts if companies need to further reduce natural gas consumption, according to a survey
  • Italy has signed off on a €35 billion ($36 billion) budget law for next year which will raise a windfall tax on energy companies in order to expand aid to families and businesses hit by higher prices
  • Spain announced a series of steps to shield mortgage-holders on lower incomes from rising costs, stepping up efforts to cushion the economic blow from high inflation and surging interest rates
  • The premium investors pay for German two-year bonds over equivalent swaps has dropped to levels last seen in July in recent days, down more than 40 basis points from a record high in September. It comes after the German finance agency and the European Central Bank took steps to increase the supply of debt available to borrow in repo markets
  • An FTX Group bankruptcy filing showed that the fallen cryptocurrency exchange and a number of affiliates had a combined cash balance of $1.24 billion
  • A new currency trading algorithm developed by a Dutch fund threatens to wrest away millions of euros of fees from investment banks if it gains traction in the pension industry
  • China’s overnight repo rate plunged to its lowest level in nearly two years, an indication that a liquidity squeeze seen last week has eased following measures by the central bank

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nesquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the regional bourses attempted to recover from the recent China COVID woes but with price action contained amid quiet newsflow and a lack of fresh macro drivers. ASX 200 was positive amid strength in the commodity-related sectors in which energy led the advances after oil prices rebounded following Saudi’s denial that it was considering a production increase. Nikkei 225 higher and reclaimed the 28,000 level with early outperformance in Shionogi after its COVID-19 therapeutic drug was presumed effective by Japan’s PMDA. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong pressured by weakness in the tech sector, while losses in the mainland were reversed after the latest policy support pledges by China including measures to sustain the recovery momentum of the industrial economy and with the PBoC to release CNY 200bln worth of loan support for commercial banks to ensure near-term delivery of homes.

Top Asian News

  • US Defence Secretary Austin met with Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe in Cambodia, according to a US official cited by Reuters. US Defence Secretary Austin discussed the need for dialogue on reducing risk and improving communication with his Chinese counterpart, according to a Pentagon spokesperson. Furthermore, Austin raised concern about increasingly dangerous behaviour by Chinese aircraft which increases the risk of an accident and he reiterated that the US remains committed to the longstanding Once China Policy.
  • Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman said the main reason for the current situation faced by China and the US is because the US made the wrong strategic judgement. In relevant news, Global Times' Hu Xijin tweeted that the meeting between the two defence ministers must be supported and that no matter how many frictions, China and the US cannot fight militarily which is the bottom line and the two sides’ due responsibility to the world.
  • EU is poised to renew sanctions on Chinese officials accused of human rights violations in Xinjiang for an additional year, according to SCMP.
  • RBA's Lowe say the Bank is not on a pre-set path and could return to 50bps increase or keep rates unchanged for a time. The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead. Understand that many people are finding the rise in interest rates difficult. It is necessary, though, to ensure that the current period of higher inflation is only temporary.
  • Beijing City reports 634 (prev. 274) COVID infections on November 22nd as of 3pm, according to a health official, via Reuters. Subsequently, Beijing will tighten COVID testing requirements as of November 24th, according to an official; COVID tests within 48 hours will be required to enter public venues.

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, though fresh developments have been limited and the upside itself is tentative at best. Sectors are mixed with the likes of Energy outperforming after yesterday's noted pressure, no overarching bias present in the European morning. Stateside, US futures are near the unchanged mark but have, similar to European peers, been modestly firmer/softer throughout the morning, ES +0.1%. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is to jointly develop 3nm chips with five-six fabless clients for large quantity supply as soon as 2023, via Korea Economic Daily citing sources.

Top European News

  • ECB's Centeno sees conditions for rate hikes to be less than 75bps in December and said they "really have to reverse" the trend of rising inflation to have greater visibility on monetary policy, according to Bloomberg.
  • ECB's Holzmann said he supports a 75bps hike in December and noted there are no signs that price pressures are easing, according to FT.
  • ECB's Rehn says they will probably hike rates again, pace depends on how the economy develops.
  • ECB's Nagel says a 50bp rate hike is "strong", rates are still "relatively far" from restrictive territory, via Reuters; calls for commencing a gradual APP unwind in Q1-2023.
  • Italy approved a EUR 35bln budget law for next year which plans to increase an energy windfall tax, according to Bloomberg.

FX

  • Dollar loses recovery momentum as risk appetite picks up, DXY drifts between 107.810-300 bounds and retests a Fib retracement level just over 107.500
  • Kiwi rebounds to top 0.6150 vs Buck irrespective of worrying NZ trade data, as RBNZ looms amidst expectations of a larger 75bp hike in the OCR
  • Aussie recovers alongside Yuan and amidst comments from RBA Governor Lowe reaffirming guidance for further tightening, AUD/USD eyes 0.6650 from around 0.6600 at the low
  • Loonie regains poise in tandem with oil and probes 1.3400 against its US rival pre-Canadian data and remarks from BoC's Rogers
  • Yen, Franc, Euro and Pound all take advantage of Greenback fade plus yield convergence to Treasuries as USD/JPY reverses from 142.00+ and USD/CHF from almost 0.9600, while EUR/USD eyes 1.0300 and Cable 1.1900 vs sub-1.0250 and 1.0825.

Fixed Income

  • Rangebound trade for core fixed income, though intraday boundaries have extended on both sides throughout the European morning as the complex struggles for firm direction.
  • Bund unreactive to a well-received Bobl auction while USTs are a handful of ticks firmer ahead of the week's last US auction, with volumes currently fairly light.
  • Note, final orders for the UK's 0.125% 2073 Gilt I/L exceed GBP 16.8bln, according to a bookrunner, with pricing set 20bp below the 2068 comparable.

Commodities

  • Comparably contained session for the crude complex after yesterday’s pronounced OPEC+ related price action; benchmarks currently firmer by around 0.5% amid further pushback to the production increase report.
  • White House Press Secretary said President Biden is committed to further lowering gasoline prices.
  • Kuwait Oil Minister has pushed back against reports of any discussions over OPEC+ raising production at its next meeting, according to the State news agency; Iraq's SOMO says no discussions have taken place over an increase at the next OPEC meeting.
  • China has reportedly paused the purchase of some Russian oil, awaiting details of the price cap to see if it provides a better price, via Bloomberg citing sources.
  • German gas price break will apply retroactively from January, via der Spiegel; reduction in gas and heat prices is not expected to take effect until March 1st.
  • European Commission proposes to introduce a gas price correction mechanism for one-year from January 1st 2023, via Reuters citing draft legislation; proposal leaves the actual price cap blank for now. Diplomats say that EU gov'ts want the gas price cap at EUR 159-180/MWh, vs the much higher cap expected to be proposed by the Commission.
  • UK officials visited Brazil in October to assess the regions beef standards, via Politico; a visit which has fuelled hopes in Brazil of a future trade deal.
  • Spot gold and silver are firmer, with the yellow metal at session highs just below the USD 1750/oz mark as risk sentiment struggles to find firm direction and the USD continues to pullback
  • For reference, the current spot gold peak of USD 1748/oz is shy of the 10-DMA at USD 1755/oz and still some way from the 200-DMA at USD 1801/oz.

Geopolitics

  • Moscow considers a search necessary for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue after Turkey's strikes in Syria and believes Turkey should restrain from the use of excessive military force, according to RIA citing Moscow's Syria envoy.
  • N. Korea will take an ultra strong response to anyone that interferes with its sovereign rights, via KCNA; US will face a greater security crisis the more it insists on taking hostile actions.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: U.S. Richmond Fed Index, Nov., est. -8, prior -10

Central bank speakers

  • 11am: Fed’s Mester Discusses Wages and Inflation
  • 11:45am: Bank of Canada’s Carolyn Rogers Speaks on Financial Stability
  • 2:15pm: Fed’s George Takes Part in Policy Panel
  • 2:45pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A decent slug of yesterday was spent debating whether England's 6-2 win at the World Cup was a performance to scare the world of football into submission or whether Iran's 20th spot in the FIFA World rankings may slightly flatter them. As ever, your opinions are welcome! Good luck to all your teams as the WC introduces a few big hitters today!

I'm not sure if it was the World Cup but markets had a rather slow and lacklustre start to the week yesterday. The S&P 500 (-0.39%) fell back amidst concerns about rising Covid cases in China and ongoing fears about a US recession next year. The effects were evident across multiple asset classes, and WTI oil prices fell below their start of 2022 levels briefly intra-day (-6.24% on the day at the lows) as investors grappled with the prospect of lower Chinese demand alongside speculation about an OPEC+ output increase, which was eventually denied. WTI rallied back hard on a Saudi denial of the story to close just -0.44% lower, while Brent futures were -6.06% lower before closing down only -0.19%. In Asia trading, WTI prices (+0.74%) have climbed back above the start of week levels and are trading just above $80/bbl while Brent futures (+0.49%) are fractionally higher as we go to print.

In terms of what’s coming out of China, there are growing concerns among investors that there’ll be a return to lockdowns following the weekend news that they’d had their first Covid death in six months. The overall rise in case numbers now makes this the third-largest outbreak of the pandemic so far, behind only the Shanghai lockdowns in Q2 and the Wuhan outbreak in early 2020. Beijing has increased its restrictions, and now requires arrivals to take three PCR tests within the first three days and to stay at home until they get a negative result. In the Haidian district of Beijing, schools have now switched to online learning as well. This has all served to dampen the speculation of recent weeks that China might be moving gradually away from its zero-Covid strategy, and the city of Shijiazhuang has even asked residents to stay at home for 5 days. China recorded 27,307 new local Covid cases nationally yesterday, almost close to the record high of 28k seen in March.

The irony is that the China reopening story has been a big positive driver of China-related risk and overall markets over the last couple of weeks, so we are trading between feast and famine on this story. Both could of course be ultimately right. There might be many more restrictions in the near term but stronger more durable reopenings by the spring. Markets are struggling to price this at the moment though.

For now, the effects were apparent among Chinese stocks listed in the US, with companies like Alibaba (-4.41%), JD.com (-6.37%) and Bilibili (-8.15%) underperforming the broader equity moves. The Chinese Yuan (-0.64%) also weakened against the US Dollar, although to be fair this was partly a function of dollar strength.

Overnight in Asia, China risk has bounced a bit. The Shanghai Composite (+0.75%) and the CSI (+0.77%) are both up alongside the Nikkei (+0.72%). The Hang Seng (-0.39%) and KOSPI (-0.35%) are both lower. US equity futures are just above flat as we type.

Staying with equities, the earlier plunge in oil prices was bad news for energy stocks, which were among the biggest sectoral underperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 was down -0.39%, with energy down -1.39%, rallying midday from -4.64% to beat out consumer discretionary shares which were -1.41% lower. A number of other cyclical industries underperformed as well, and the NASDAQ fell -1.09% on the day, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.57%. In Europe, the performance was marginally better, but that still wasn’t enough to stop the STOXX 600 posting a very marginal -0.06% decline, with energy (-3.02%) far and away the underperformer as shares closed near the nadir of Brent and WTI futures pricing. There clearly should be a bounce this morning.

The more negative tone out of China yesterday has only added to existing fears about a US recession over the coming months, which the latest moves in the Treasury yield curve did little to dispel. The 2s10s yield curve flattened another -2.2bps to -73bps taking it beneath the 1982 low of -71.65bps to a level unseen since 1981. This came as the 10yr tracked intraday pricing in oil as well, having fallen as much as -7.1bps intraday before finishing the day more or less unchanged. This morning in Asia, 10yr UST yields (-1.12 bps) are slightly lower, trading at 3.82%.

There have been a few Fed speakers over the last 24 hours to impact treasury pricing. SF Fed President Daly warned against the two-sided risks of over-tightening, but hinted that her estimate of terminal may have risen to around 5.1% since the November meeting. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Mester supported downshifting to a 50bps hike in December, but noted the Fed was not “anywhere near to stopping”, echoing Chair Powell’s tone from the November FOMC presser. There's quite a bit of Fed speak today as you'll see in the day ahead at the end.

Whilst it’s widely expected that the Fed will slow down the pace of hikes to 50bps in December, there’s somewhat more doubt about the ECB’s next move the following day, who it seems are still weighing up another 75bps hike or slowing down to 50bps. Yesterday, we heard from Austria’s Holzmann (a hawk), who said he’d only favour a 50bps hike if there was a “major reduction” in inflation this month. But Portugal’s Centeno (a dove) said that the conditions were in place for a hike beneath 75bps next month. Separately, Slovenia’s Vasle talked about the need for restrictive policy, saying that the ECB needs to “keep gradually raising rates, even into the territory where monetary policy won’t be just neutral, but will become more restrictive.”

European sovereigns seemed unfazed by this debate, trading in line with the broader global moves. Yields on 10yr bunds (-2.1bps) and OATs (-1.8bps) moved lower, but there was an underperformance among southern European countries, with yields on Italian BTPs up +4.3bps. Interestingly, there was a notable downside surprise in the latest German PPI reading, which came in at +34.5% in October (vs. +42.1% expected). Now it’s worth noting that the decline was driven by energy, but at -4.2% on the month, that was the first monthly decline in the index since mid-2020.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Holzmann, Rehn and Nagel. Data releases include Euro Area consumer confidence for November, as well as the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Lastly, the OECD will be releasing their Economic Outlook.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/22/2022 - 08:02

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New technology is now the beating heart of patient care

Patient care and healthcare provision have always appeared among society’s top priorities, but keeping people well came into
The post New technology…

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Patient care and healthcare provision have always appeared among society’s top priorities, but keeping people well came into sharp focus during the pandemic.

So, too, did the role of pharmaceutical companies – not least how amazing advances in medical science could help the world combat Covid, but also how the sector was remunerated for its efforts.

As we seek to move beyond the difficulties of the past few years, pharma firms now have the chance to make further advances and bring innovation to market and, in the process, gain competitive edge over their rivals.

The race is on

With an abundance of patient data to hand – GDPR compliance permitting – and cutting-edge technology to aid the development and delivery of new products, the race is on to escalate and improve patient care with solutions that can truly make a difference.

Patients aren’t blind to the tech-driven changes going on around them. We’ve been using wearable technology for decades already. Acceleration of this market really kicked in 20 years ago, when devices from Bluetooth headsets to smart watches came on-stream. Ever since, we seem to have been glued to screens to understand more about ourselves, tapping apps that promise to monitor everything from self-care to Circadian rhythms.

Wearables are becoming breakout technology in the pharma space, too. Biospace estimates the market for these types of devices that add to the patient care toolkit will grow from today’s $21.3bn to $196.5bn by 2030.

In effect, the possibilities are endless. We already have access to devices that monitor our heart rate and alert first responders if sensors detect a health crisis like a stroke or heart attack. Similar technology could be rolled out across society, accelerating critical treatment times.

Emergency response is the tip of the iceberg. All of the data produced by wearables – from blood sugar levels to monitoring changes in the menstrual cycle – can automatically be passed to frontline healthcare organisations, enabling professionals to read and appropriately respond.

Such tech is just one example of an area that is ripe with opportunity for pharma businesses. But there are lots of other exciting developments at our fingertips.

Biosimilars get the sector’s blood pumping

During the past few years, interest has been growing in biosimilars. If you’re unaware of these types of drugs, the NHS describes them as: “Biological medicines that have been shown not to have any clinical meaningful differences from the originator medicine in terms of quality, safety, and efficacy.”

Biosimilars are therefore biological medicines that are highly similar to another version already licensed for use, and they are now being recommended all the time. They are, of course, subject to the same NICE guidance as originator medicine it has already approved. NHS leaders believe biosimilars will create up to £300m of annual savings thanks to their speed of development, a timely saving in a challenging market that looks set to come under increasing financial pressure during the next few years.

Clinicians also note that the biosimilars market will rapidly develop and grow in complexity, since more pharma players will introduce their own treatments using these techniques. At the same time – with full patient/carer consent, it should be acknowledged – healthcare providers are beginning to offer patients biosimilar treatments, such that they should become widely recognised and hopefully accepted in short order.

Patients will experience biosimilars in different ways. For example, my own experience of biosimilars has been to help a global pharma company launch a biosimilar autoimmune drug. The really smart part about this development is the wider use of technology it taps into.

An app was developed so that patient symptoms could be monitored – for example, their baseline health indicators checked and logged, and dietary and exercise advice offered – and adjustments to the drug dose made accordingly by their healthcare provider.

Meanwhile, reading patient data and symptoms using this method will become commonplace. For the patient, constant improvements and updates to associated apps will present them with a slick interface to keep tabs on their own condition and ease access to support.

The wide-ranging benefits of tech-driven treatment

Of course, generations of patients have become used to traditional treatment methods. Whenever there is change it often happens slowly and people need to be persuaded about the benefits of such an evolution.

It’s useful to pause and summarise the reasons why different types of technology are now so important to developments in the pharma and healthcare sectors. Expressing its benefits can help win the hearts and minds of millions of patients the world over:

  • Constant ability to monitor symptoms – including emergency alerts
  • New interaction methods for healthcare providers and patients
  • Better control of treatment plans, including long-term care
  • Overall, a promise of quicker and more efficient service delivery

As mentioned, apps will be one of the main interfaces where this new type of professional-patient relationship takes place. According to a survey by NEJM Catalyst, a majority (60%) of clinicians and healthcare industry leaders believe effective patient engagement makes a serious impact on the quality of care, and can substantially decrease the costs in the system.

Anything that can be done to cure this problem must surely be viewed as a positive. A patient engagement app that improves the experience for physicians and patients is a valuable tool.

Digital tools augment the benefits of medical products, such as by the aforementioned remote monitoring features with the ability to collect important patient data. Overall, mobile patient engagement promises better efficiency for pharma firms’ treatments, doctors, clinics, medical associations, and the whole industry in general.

Pharma giants such as Pfizer, Merck & Co., and Novartis are actively equipping their representatives with innovative digital tools to strengthen their credibility and relevance, reconnect with target audiences, and improve the infrastructure around medical products.

The creation and provision of efficient medical apps for professionals contributes to wider efforts to overhaul treatment programmes.

Digital can be a cure-all for lack of awareness or understanding among patients about their conditions and what they can do to alleviate symptoms. It can also drive better communication between doctors and patients by removing red tape from the process, while maintaining compliance with medical regulations. And it can build efficiency into often overwrought systems, particularly the densely populated urban areas and underserved rural communities that are under the most pressure for different reasons.

Simply by providing apps that drive patient engagement and improve their experience of treatment and healthcare provision, user trust grows. Healthcare apps can be built for patients with a deep level of personalisation, with user-friendly and agile design to suit a wide range of demographic groups. And that’s really the heart of the matter.

Why connecting with the end user matters

Mass adoption of new technology-driven medicines, treatments, and healthcare services will only stand if patients – and therefore their healthcare providers – feel comfortable that this new wave will change their outcomes for the better.

Two elements are critical to society feeling comfortable: technology and communication. That means building and using platforms, from patient apps to portals for healthcare professionals that display information and advice from pharma providers.

By connecting the dots between the pharma companies using cutting-edge platforms for innovative drug delivery, their healthcare markets, and the patients who professionals exist to support we can create a virtuous circle.

Patients will play their own part in the healthcare delivery revolution and provide their data in real-time as part of a feedback loop that the pharma industry can use to refine and invent treatment.

Whether you work in pharma or frontline healthcare delivery, there is no doubt that tech innovation can – and must – be the beating heart of patient services and treatment. You only need to consider the advances it has helped other markets make. For example, observe how smarter use of customer data has shaken up the energy market, allowing consumers to take control by switching to a more suitable option in a few short clicks.

Then consider the wider advertising industry, which has evolved from mass TV marketing to one-to-one, personalised messaging, drawing on data and technology as its fuel.

It’s in this context that we should view the future of pharma and healthcare provision. Technology and the data it delivers can drive drug development, but also the use of medicine in ongoing patient care.

Health tech investment is set to swell as the private and public sectors join forces for the benefit of society at large, and patient demand for innovation in diagnosis and treatment increases. There has never been a better time for pharma leaders to consider new ways to deliver smart, efficient treatments – driven by technology that provides a platform for new medicines and user adoption.

About the author

Rachel Grigg, partnership director at LABS (part of Initials CX), has worked in digital technology for the past 25 years and has seen and been involved with the advent of digital transformation first-hand. Her roles have varied from working in large corporate companies designing technical products to being MD and COO helping small digital agencies grow and succeed.

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Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, roughly 95% of commercial…

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Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, roughly 95% of commercial office space was occupied across the United States, according to US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – a nonprofit, non-government organization. By March 2020, occupancy plummeted to 10%, and has only recovered to 47%, according to a new NBER report which claims $453 billion in office commercial real estate value has been wiped out in an "office real estate apocalypse."

Around the US, that resulted in a 17.5 percent decrease in lease revenue between January 2020, and May 2022, and not only because fewer offices were being occupied, but also because those that are being rented are going for shorter terms, lower prices per month, and a lot less floor space is needed as staff are told they can work from home for most or all the week.

Prior to the pandemic, 253 million square feet were rented per year; as of May 2022, just 59 million square feet had been rented, NBER's data indicates. "This indicates a massive drop in office demand from tenants who are actively making space decisions," NBER said. -The Register

What's more, while vacancy rates have hit a 30-year high, 61.7% of in-force commercial leases haven't come up for renewal since the pandemic - meaning that "rents may not have bottomed out yet."

What this means is that commercial real estate - a popular choice for pension fund managers and investors alike - may not be the best idea for the foreseeable future, given the continuing work-from-home options adopted by corporate America.

A common method used to invest in office real estate is commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which are managed and traded via commercial mortgage-backed indexes (CMBX) made up of pools of CMBSes. 

According to NBER, more recent CMBXes tend to include a higher percentage of office collateral than earlier vintages. Those newer, office-heavy CMBXes, NBER said, are what's losing the most money. -The Register

NBER says that in 2019, commercial real estate assets topped $4.7 trillion - offices being the largest component.

Read the report below:

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/08/2022 - 19:20

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Starts December Lower Than Pre-Pandemic WeekU.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week but showed weakened comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 3.Nov. 27 through Dec. 3,…

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U.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week but showed weakened comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 3.

Nov. 27 through Dec. 3, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

Occupancy: 55.4% (-7.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $141.71 (+10.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $78.50 (+1.7%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate continue to decline into the Winter.

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