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Futures Resume Levitation, Push On To New All Time Highs

Futures Resume Levitation, Push On To New All Time Highs

One day after a brief interruption in the Santa rally, as US stocks fell for the first time in five days amid a rotation out of megacap tech shares, futures have resumed their upward…

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Futures Resume Levitation, Push On To New All Time Highs

One day after a brief interruption in the Santa rally, as US stocks fell for the first time in five days amid a rotation out of megacap tech shares, futures have resumed their upward climb as investors brushed aside rapidly shifting fears about the economic implications of the omicron coronavirus outbreak. Treasury yields ticked higher along with the dollar. Bitcoin continued its recent tax-loss related selling which pushed it back under $47,000. As of 730am ET, emini S&P futures were up 2 points or 0.04%, fading an earlier gain which pushed ES up to 4,790, while Dow Jones futures were flat and Nasdaq futures were up 0.16%.

Tesla gained more than 2% in pre-market trading after Elon Musk sold a further $1.02 billion off shares, taking him that much closer to his target of reducing his stake in the electric-car maker by 10%. Other notable premarket movers include:

  • Shares in Apple (AAPL US) rise 0.2% in premarket trading after it closed lower on Tuesday after a four-day rally that put it within striking distance of a historic $3 trillion market value
  • Calix (CALX US) climbed 8.9% in extended trading on news the software company will join the S&P Midcap 400 Index before trading opens on Jan. 4
  • Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI US) sank 22% postmarket after saying the FDA declined to review the company’s application for an emergency use authorization (EUA) for its DPP Respiratory Antigen Panel -- a test for coronavirus and influenza
  • Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM US) fell 7.1% in after- hours trading as the egg producer posted 2Q profit that missed the average analyst estimate

Shares slipped in Japan, technology stocks drove a retreat in Hong Kong and China slid (more below). Sentiment in China is being sapped by Beijing’s tightening oversight of overseas share sales and economic risks from a property slowdown. Authorities are expected to add stimulus next year to steady expansion.

In the latest Omicron news, two years after reports of the mysterious disease first emerged in Wuhan, the pandemic shows no signs of abating, with the omicron variant pushing worldwide Covid-19 cases above 1 million for a second straight day. The Netherlands will require travelers arriving from the U.S. to self-quarantine for up to ten days. Rapid tests that are widely used to detect infections may miss some omicron cases, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Covid hospitalizations are spiking from New South Wales to New York state, pressuring health systems. Overall, however, omicron appears to be triggering a lower rate of hospitalizations. In China’s Xi’an, an outbreak eased after residents were asked to stay indoors and driving was banned.

“Although omicron cases in the U.S. and Europe amongst others, continue to surge, it has yet to make its presence felt negatively in economic data,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said in a note. “With market activity much reduced for the holiday season, investors continue to tentatively price in a global recovery hitting a minor bump, and not a pothole.”

As Bloomberg notes, investors are rounding out the year by booking profits after a 17% jump in global equities. The coronavirus, Federal Reserve policy tightening and China’s outlook are cited among the key risks for 2022. Omicron fears are easing on growing evidence that the fast-spreading strain leads to milder symptoms. Still volatility remains with the Nasdaq now swinging more than 2.5% per week for 5 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in a decade.

“We’re sober about potential headwinds that still could be coming, even the rest of this year, but early in 2022 -- the Fed is going to be raising rates, that will change things for the markets,” Ann Miletti, head of active equity at Allspring Global Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “We are also hopeful because as you look at a lot of the economic data, it remains strong.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index hit a new all-time high record before retreating, with retailers outperforming. The FTSE 100 Index climbed to its highest level since February 2020 as U.K. markets reopened after Christmas, catching up to European market gains, with the FTSE 100 Index rising to the highest level since February 2020. The FTSE 100 Index was up as much as 1% with Rolls-Royce the best performer with a 3% gain; the FTSE 250 Index gained as much as 1.3%; Darktrace jumps 5.1%. Technology shares declined, following the sector’s retreat in the U.S. and Asia. Volumes remained thin into the end of the year in some markets.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by losses in Chinese shares, amid an extended global selloff in technology giants. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.5%, with Samsung Electronics, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. China’s CSI 300 was the worst-performing major gauge in the region, losing 1.5%.

“There’s not much news, but the drop in Chinese shares has worsened the mood a bit,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management. “It’s almost strange how equity markets have been rising despite this sense of anticipated cutbacks in monetary easing by Europe and the U.S., so you’re seeing stocks correct recent gains.” U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days amid a rotation out of megacap tech shares. While some traders saw a chance to take profits after the S&P 500 posted its 69th record-high close for 2021 on Monday, the market also remains wary over record numbers of daily Covid-19 cases. “I think the most pressing issue is omicron and whether or not surging case numbers lead to a pick-up in hospitalizations and fatalities in coming weeks,” said Kyle Rodda, a market analyst at IG Markets. “That could pull the rug from under the market, especially as trading conditions return to normal from next week onwards.” 

Japanese equities also slid as investors sold technology shares, mirroring moves in the U.S. market overnight. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which fell 0.3%. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.6% loss in the Nikkei 225.

India’s key stock gauges likewise fell after a two-day advance, led by declines in lenders. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharmaceutical rose after the government approved more vaccines and treatments to curb the spread of coronavirus.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 57,806.49 in Mumbai, after swinging between gains and losses ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts on Thursday. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.1%. Twelve of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. fell, led by a measure of metals companies.   The government on Tuesday granted approval for restricted emergency use of two new vaccines and the anti-viral drug Molnupiravir, to be manufactured by local firms including Dr. Reddy’s. India recorded 9,195 new Covid-19 cases, according to the latest data release on Wednesday. The daily count surged from 6,358 on Tuesday. Rising infections have prompted some Indian states to impose curbs on public gatherings, with New Delhi ordering closures of cinemas, schools and gyms.  HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, falling 0.5%. Out of 30 shares in the benchmark, 18 fell and 12 rose.

In rates, Treasuries slipped in light trading as equity futures hold near Tuesday’s record high, with the year's last auction - a sale of $56 billion in 7-year paper due at 1pm ET, in low-volume trading typical of the last week of the year. Yields are higher cheaper by 1bp-2bp in 10- to 30-year sectors with front-end and belly yields little changed; 30-year at 1.917% is above its above its 50-DMA, breached Tuesday for first time since late November. Monday’s 2-year and Tuesday’s 5-year auctions tailed slightly, though both have since improved and sported solid internals. The WI 7Y yield ~1.42% is between last two auction stops and ~16bp richer than last month’s. Euro-area sovereign bonds were mixed, with German bunds fluctuating. Japanese government bonds gained as concern over the coronavirus omicron strain supports demand for haven assets.

In FX, a gauge of the U.S. dollar rose for a third day, sending the Japanese yen sliding past 115/USD for the first time in a month. The Turkish lira resumed its collapse, dropping as much as 5% against the dollar, extending this week’s loss to 15% with the nation’s 10-year government bond yield standing at an all-time high. Turkey’s central bank will prioritize the promotion of lira deposits next year after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced controversial new steps to curb the currency’s depreciation. Meanwhile, China’s overnight interbank borrowing rates plummet to the lowest level in 11 months after the central bank injected more liquidity into the financial system.

In commodities, crude oil hovered near a one-month high, partly on bets that the global recovery can ride out omicron. Iron ore futures in Singapore and China declined for a third day. Bitcoin stayed below $48,000 after a tumble that hinted at diminished ardor for the most speculative assets; the cryptocurrency remains on course for its biggest monthly drop since the cryptocurrency rout in May.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,788.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 489.63
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 192.40
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 625.02
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 28,906.88
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,998.99
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 23,086.54
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,597.00
  • Sensex little changed at 57,920.29
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,509.81
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,993.29
  • Brent Futures little changed at $78.95/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,803.78
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 96.37
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.23%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1279

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Investors are primed for the dollar to climb next year. But the juiciest trades may be over even before 2021 ends
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Index is racing toward its best annual gain in six years and hedge funds’ net long bets on the currency have climbed to the highest since June 2019 as traders have been front-running a hawkish Federal Reserve
  • European equities climbed toward a record in thin holiday trading as investors bet that the economic recovery can withstand the impact of the omicron variant
  • Bitcoin edged higher after a steep decline in choppy year-end trading, but it’s still on course for its biggest monthly drop since the cryptocurrency rout in May
  • U.K. households are heading into the “year of the squeeze” as surging energy bills and faster inflation eat into incomes, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Nov. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$88.1b, prior - $82.9b
  • 8:30am: Nov. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 2.3%
  • 10am: Nov. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -4.7%; Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.8%, prior 7.5%
Tyler Durden Wed, 12/29/2021 - 08:11

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Spread & Containment

Japanese yen remains directionless

The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.32, up 0.17% on the day. The US dollar pummelled…

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The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.32, up 0.17% on the day.

The US dollar pummelled the yen in the months of March and April, but the yen has held its own in May. Still, USD/JPY remains at high levels and the 130 line, which has psychological significance, remains vulnerable. If there is a line in the sand for the Japanese government or the BoJ to intervene and prop up the yen, it certainly is not the 130 level, as the dollar broke through this line without a response. The yen is extremely sensitive to the US/Japan rate differential, and with the BoJ demonstrating that it will tenaciously defend its yield curve, the yen is at the mercy of Powell & Co.

Japan releases GDP for Q1 on Thursday. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.4%, after a respectable gain of 1.1% in Q4 of 2020. Investors never like to see negative growth, and a lower-than-expected GDP report will put downward pressure on the yen.

 

US retail sales within expectations

Over in the US, retail sales for April came in at 0.9%, just shy of the consensus estimate of 1.0%. Core retail sales rose 1.0%, above the forecast of 0.7% and close to the 1.1% gain in March. The numbers were not spectacular by any stretch, but were respectable, given that consumer confidence has weakened – the UoM Consumer Sentiment index fell to 59.42 in May, its lowest level since October 2011. US households continue to spend, despite a deterioration in consumer confidence. Wages are not keeping up with the cost of living, but consumers appear to be using savings which accumulated during the Covid pandemic.

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USD/JPY Technical

  • USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.2938, followed by resistance at 1.3123
  • There is support at 1.3000 and 1.2918

 

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Bonds

Best Stocks to Buy in a Bear Market: Your Complete Guide

To protect your portfolio this year, keep reading to find the best stocks to buy in a bear market and how they can still earn you a profit.
The post Best…

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Stocks fell again last week, making it six straight weeks of fallout. Everything is slipping from its highs between stocks, bonds and the latest victim, crypto. With this in mind, if you wish to find the best stocks to buy in a bear market, there are several factors to consider first.

For one thing, the Federal Reserve is committing to using all the tools necessary to bring down the price of goods. Although the pace of inflation is slowing, prices are still on the rise.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading shows prices rose another 0.3% in April. Furthermore, as the fed works to get inflation under control, Chairman Jerome Powell is warning there could be more pain ahead.

Several analysts are cutting their economic predictions as a result. For example, Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein suggests a recession may be in the works. On CBS’s “Face the Nation,” he mentions “there’s a path” to a recession, and taming inflation will be tricky. If you wish to protect your portfolio this year, keep reading to find the best stocks to buy in a bear market and how they can still earn you a profit.

What Are the Best Stocks to Buy in a Bear Market?

The first thing to consider is not all bear markets are the same. They can appear out of nowhere, often caused by a black swan event such as the pandemic.

At the same time, bear markets are a natural part of investing. In a way, they can help correct valuations, allowing investors to build long-term wealth. For example, the S&P 500 (SPX) P/E ratio is around 20, down from 38 in December. Yet the value is still higher compared to its historical average of 15.

However, they can also be detrimental if you are not prepared. There are a few things to look for to find good stocks to invest in during a recession, such as…

  • Dividends
  • Sales Growth
  • Free Cash Flow

On top of this, how the stock performs relative to its peer can help you identify leaders. If a stock is trading above its 200D SMA while its peers are slipping, it’s generally a sign of strength and momentum. To get your portfolio ready for what’s next, check out the best stocks to buy in a bear market.

No. 4 Consumer Defensive

When inflation is high, it makes goods more expensive, reducing consumers’ purchasing power. Although this is true, people still need their essentials. With this in mind, the consumer defensive sector consists of companies that make essential goods such as household essentials, tobacco and food.

Kroger (NYSE: KR)

Kroger is one of the largest food retailers in the U.S., with close to $138 billion in sales in 2021. Despite growing inflation and wage pressure, the grocer continues growing at an impressive rate. Lastly, with many locations having pharmacies and fuel centers, Kroger’s margins shouldn’t see too much pressure as food and wage prices continue climbing.

Boston Beer Co. (NYSE: SAM)

Sticking with the theme of industry leaders, Boston Beer is a top brewing company in the U.S. with brands such as Sam Adams, Twisted Tea and Truly. Although the brewer saw sales decline in the first quarter, its positioning itself for future growth with younger-generation favorites such as Truly hard Selzer.

Companies in the consumer defensive sector are some of the best stocks to buy in a bear market. However, as employees seek higher wages to offset inflation, we could see some short-term pressure. With this in mind, both companies are fundamentally solid while positioned for future growth.

No. 3 Healthcare Stocks

Healthcare is an investor’s favorite industry when the economy is slowing. For one thing, healthcare is an industry with stable demand. To explain, consumers have healthcare plans, and people will still get sick. Not to mention patients still need to take their medication.

One of the last things people will cut out of their budget is healthcare. As a result, the industry sees relatively stable earnings. That said, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLV) is down 6% YTD compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY), down 15%.

CVS Health (NYSE: CVS)

During the pandemic, CVS transformed its business to meet the changing industry needs. By providing affordable, convenient, and personal care, CVS is seeing the results pay off. In Q1, health care benefits, pharmacy sales, retail, and store visits rose significantly as a result. Even more, the company is raising guidance for 2022.

Mckesson (NYSE: MCK)

As the largest pharmaceutical distributor in the U.S., Mckesson plays a critical role in healthcare. Although exiting international markets may slow growth in the short term, an aging U.S. population and more access to healthcare should promote higher sales.

Both CVS and Mckesson have strong free cash flow, pay dividends, and are trading above their 200D SMA.

No. 2 Materials and Miners

Materials and mining companies are some of the best stocks to buy in a bear market with tangible value. Mining companies extract resources such as metals, selling them to be made into goods. Other materials firms can include chemicals, packaging and agricultural goods.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS)

One of the largest fertilizer nutrient producers looking to fill the supply gap left by the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, a tight agriculture market is driving prices higher, resulting in over 300% operating earnings growth. Lastly, crop prices are likely to remain elevated this year with growing sanctions and lack of supply.

Alcoa Corp. (NYSE: AA)

The world’s largest bauxite miner plays a vital role in the aluminum market. Bauxite is used to produce alumina, then used to make aluminum. With demand for aluminum expected to remain elevated (especially as automakers pick up again), Alcoa rewards shareholders with a new dividend and increased buyback program.

Another key thing to consider is the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act intended to rebuild and replace America’s roads, bridges, etc. Many of these projects will require significant resources such as steel, iron, and other construction materials. With this in mind, the bill states these materials must be domestic.

No. 1 Best Stock to Buy in a Bear Market: Energy Stocks

This year, energy stocks are outperforming the market, and it’s not even close. The Select SPDR Trust Energy ETF (NYSE: XLE) is up 48% so far in 2022. Yet the sector doesn’t look to be slowing anytime soon.

Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN)

The number one performing stock in the S&P 500 last year looks to continue its reign. With oil prices over $114 a barrel, Devon Energy is seeing profits soar as operating cash flow rose another 14% in Q1 to $1.8 billion. With this in mind, the company is returning profits to investors through a record $1.27 dividend (nearly 8% yield) and a massive $2 billion share buyback.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

The second-largest oil company in the U.S. (behind Exxon) is ramping spending to boost production. After several smart partnerships and acquisitions, Chevron is investing in growth. So far, the strategy is paying off as the company becomes more efficient and profitable. Lastly, Chevron’s focus on a lower carbon future with renewable energy investments will likely prove to be a smart bet in the long run.

As many nations look to phase out Russian oil, other companies are stepping up to increase production and fill the supply gap. The economy is largely dependent on oil and gas to continue running smoothly. People will still need gas and oil to power their homes, get to and from work, etc.

Given these points, energy stocks are on the top of my list of best stocks to buy in a bear market. Even though energy is outperforming this year, they have more room to run. To explain, energy makes up only about 4.5% of the S&P 500, even after running up this year. However, it’s still relatively low compared to its historical average of around 10%.

The post Best Stocks to Buy in a Bear Market: Your Complete Guide appeared first on Investment U.

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Bonds

A central bank digital euro could save the eurozone – here’s how

By changing the rules around bank lending, you can make a huge cut to national debt.

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Blockchain bailout? 4K_Heaven

The European Central Bank and its counterparts in the UK, US, China and India are exploring a new form of state-backed money built on similar online ledger technology to cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum. So-called central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) envision a future where we’ll all have our own digital wallets and transfer money between them at the touch of a button, with no need for high-street banks to be involved because it all happens on a blockchain.

But CBDCs also present an opportunity that has gone unnoticed – to vastly reduce the exorbitant levels of public debt weighing down many countries. Let us explain.

The idea behind CBDCs is that individuals and firms would be issued with digital wallets by their central bank with which to make payments, pay taxes and buy shares or other securities. Whereas with today’s bank accounts, there is always the outside possibility that customers are unable to withdraw money because of a bank run, that can’t happen with CBDCs because all deposits would be 100% backed by reserves.

Today’s retail banks are required to keep little or no deposits in reserve, though they do have to hold a proportion of their capital (meaning easily sold assets) as protection in case their lending books run into trouble. For example, eurozone banks’ minimum requirement is 15.1%, meaning if they have capital of €1 billion (£852 million), their lending book cannot exceed €6.6 billion (that’s 6.6 times deposits).

In an era of CBDCs, we assume that people will still have bank accounts – to have their money invested by a fund manager, for instance, or to make a return by having it loaned out to someone else on the first person’s behalf. Our idea is that the 100% reserve protection in central bank wallets should extend to these retail bank accounts.

That would mean that if a person put 1,000 digital euros into a retail bank account, the bank could not multiply that deposit by opening more accounts than they could pay upon request. The bank would have to make money from its other services instead.

At present, the ECB holds about 25% of EU members’ government debt. Imagine that after transitioning to a digital euro, it decided to increase this holding to 30% by buying new sovereign bonds issued by member states.

To pay for this, it would create new digital euros – just like what happens today when quantitative easing (QE) is used to prop up the economy. Crucially, for each unit of central bank money created in this way, the money circulating in the wider economy increases by a lot more: in the eurozone, it roughly triples. This is essentially because QE drives up the value of bonds and other assets, and as a result, retail banks are more willing to lend to people and firms. This increase in the money supply is why QE can cause inflation.

If there was a 100% reserve requirement on retail banks, however, you wouldn’t get this multiplication effect. The money created by the ECB would be that amount and nothing more. Consequently, QE would be much less inflationary than today.

The debt benefit

So where does national debt fit in? The high national debt levels in many countries are predominantly the result of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the eurozone crisis of the 2010s and the COVID pandemic. In the eurozone, countries with very high debt as a proportion of GDP include Belgium (100%), France (99%), Spain (96%), Portugal (119%), Italy (133%) and Greece (174%).

One way to deal with high debt is to create a lot of inflation to make the value of the debt smaller, but that also makes citizens poorer and is liable to eventually cause unrest. But by taking advantage of the shift to CBDCs to change the rules around retail bank reserves, governments can go a different route.

The opportunity is during the transition phase, by reversing the process in which creating money to buy bonds adds three times as much money to the real economy. By selling bonds in exchange for today’s euros, every one euro removed by the central bank leads to three disappearing from the economy.

Indeed, this is how digital euros would be introduced into the economy. The ECB would gradually sell sovereign bonds to take the old euros out of circulation, while creating new digital euros to buy bonds back again. Because the 100% reserve requirement only applies to the new euros, selling bonds worth €5 million euros takes €15 million out of the economy but buying bonds for the same amount only adds €5 million to the economy.

However, you wouldn’t just buy the same amount of bonds as you sold. Because the multiplier doesn’t apply to the bonds being bought, you can triple the amount of purchases and the total amount of money in the economy stays the same – in other words, there’s no extra inflation.

For example, the ECB could increase its holdings of sovereign debt of EU member states from 25% to 75%. Unlike the sovereign bonds in private hands, member states don’t have to pay interest to the ECB on such bonds. So EU taxpayers would now only need to pay interest on 25% of their bonds rather than the 75% on which they are paying interest now.

Interest rates and other questions

An added reason for doing this is interest rates. While interest rates payable on bonds have been meagre for years, they could hugely increase on future issuances due to inflationary pressures and central banks beginning to raise short-term interest rates in response. The chart below shows how the yields (meaning rates of interest) on the closely watched 10-year sovereign bonds for Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal have already increased between three and fivefold in the past few months.

Mediterranean 10-year bond yields

Following several years of immense shocks from the pandemic, the energy crisis and war emergency, there’s a risk that the markets start to think that Europe’s most indebted countries can’t cover their debts. This could lead to widespread bond selling and push interest rates up to unmanageable levels. In other words, our approach might even save the eurozone.

The ECB could indeed achieve all this without introducing a digital euro, simply by imposing a tougher reserve requirement within the current system. But by moving to a CBDC, there is a strong argument that because it’s safer than bank deposits, retail banks should have to guarantee that safety by following a 100% reserve rule.

Note that we can only take this medicine once, however. As a result, EU states will still have to be disciplined about their budgets.

Instead of completely ending fractional reserve banking in this way, there’s also a halfway house where you make reserve requirements more stringent (say a 50% rule) and enjoy a reduced version of the benefits from our proposed system. Alternatively, after the CBDC transition ends, the reserve requirement could be progressively relaxed to stimulate the economy, subject to GDP growth, inflation and so on.

What if other central banks do not take the same approach? Certainly, some coordination would help to minimise disruption, but reserve requirements do differ between countries today without significant problems. Also, many countries would probably be tempted to take the same approach. For example, the Bank of England holds over one-third of British government debt, and UK public debt as a proportion of GDP currently stands at 95%.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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