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Futures Power Higher On Upbeat Chinese, German Data

Futures Power Higher On Upbeat Chinese, German Data



Futures Power Higher On Upbeat Chinese, German Data Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2020 - 07:59

US equity futures and world stocks continued their ramp higher on Tuesday following upbeat German and Chinese data showed the economic recovery was gaining traction, coupled with the usual optimism about coronavirus vaccines while the struggling dollar kept the hot streaks for the euro and some of the biggest emerging market currencies sizzling. The USDJPY slumped to 105.53 while the Chinese yuan rose above 6.80, the highest level since May 2019.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 put on 0.6%, also reversing early losses. Tesla, Apple and Nvidia all climbed in pre-market trading, while in Europe Hennes & Mauritz AB led a rally among fashion retailers after beating profit estimates. Ocado Group gained after the U.K. grocery delivery company reported a strong surge in sales. Sentiment was also boosted by hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine after British drugmaker AstraZeneca restarted its vaccine trial and the dollar extending recent losses, other currencies were also on the rise.

“It is better risk appetite and the softer dollar environment,” ING’s Chief EMEA FX and interest rate strategist, Petr Krpata, said, though the approaching U.S. election was likely to prevent too much of a run up, he added.

"Market volatility is returning after months of steady advances in risk assets,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Elga Bartsch said. "Valuations have risen, and we could see greater volatility as a result, especially as the U.S. election closes in."

Europe’s STOXX 600 was last up 0.5% having shaken off its slow start after a surprise jump too in Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey, which surged to 77.4 (up from 71.5), smashing expectations of 69.8, and the highest since June 2000.

“The September ZEW was a strong beat, with expectations reaching a 20-year high and current conditions also exceeding expectations,” Morgan Stanley economist Markus Guetschow said, although he did caution most other data was still gloomier.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan added 0.5%, for a fourth straight day of gains that propelled it up 3% for the year  with health care rising and consumer staples falling, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Thailand's SET gaining 0.8% and South Korea's Kospi Index rising 0.6%, while Jakarta Composite dropped 1.2%. The Topix declined 0.6%, with Hamee and Diamond Electric Holdings falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5%, with Junzheng Energy and Ningbo Shanshan posting the biggest advances.

The offshore yuan climbed to the highest level in a year and stocks in Shanghai advanced on evidence that China is accelerating out of the virus slump. As noted last night, industrial production beat expectations, while retail sales rose for the first time this year in August.

The day’s eye-catching move was a 16-month high for the yuan as 5.6% jump in Chinese industrial output in August and the first pick-up in retail sales since the coronavirus outbreak gave it its best day since July. "Strong external demand, a further recovery from the pandemic and pent-up demand from the floods all contributed to the robust activity data in August," Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note to clients. "We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery of the services sector, a steady improvement in retail sales and elevated fixed-asset investment growth."

With the yuan leading the charge, MSCI’s EM FX index also climbed to a near 7-month high. The Australian dollar led an advance among Group-of-10 currencies against the greenback after the central bank’s latest minutes showed it didn’t plan to ease further anytime soon. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gave up an earlier advance after China posted its first growth in retail sales since Covid-19 hit early in the year. The euro rose a fifth day against the greenback, up 0.2% at $1.1891 after the surprise jump too in Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey, while the pound advanced for a second day on improved global risk appetite. The yen nudged higher as Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won a ruling party leadership vote, as expected, paving the way for Japan’s first change of leader in nearly eight years.

“He’s seen as someone who’s particularly stock market friendly. The fact that we’ve got political certainty for the next two years from someone who’s connected to the free market is going to be good news for Japan,” said Jim McCafferty, joint head of Asia Pacific equity research at Nomura.

Investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve whose two-day policy meeting begins today to gauge the outlook for markets following a slide of about 2% in global stocks this month. The Fed is expected to maintain its dovish stance after earlier saying it will shift to a more relaxed approach on inflation. Central bank largesse is shoring up sentiment in the face of risks from the pandemic, the U.S. presidential election and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.

In rates, treasuries were weaker as U.S. trading gets under way, led by long end ahead of $22b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm. U.S. yields lag steeper increase in several European markets, especially supply-driven move in U.K. gilts. Yields were higher by about 2bp at long end, 10-year by less than 1bp at 0.68%; WI 20-year yield is around 1.22% vs 1.185% stop in August new-issue auction. Last week’s 30-year reopening stopped through slightly, arresting a bear-steepening move in Treasuries and easing concern about appetite for record-size auctions; Tuesday’s 20-year reopening is $5b larger than last quarter’s taps, and the projected total issue size for the August 2040 bond is $69b vs $44 billion for the May 2040 according to Bloomberg.

In commodities, Brent crude climbed back to $40 a barrel and gold prices put on 0.4%, extending a sharp rise in the previous session. WTI and Brent futures have been on an upward trajectory in the latter part of the European morning as traders balance the supply and demand implication arising from developments in the Gulf of Mexico alongside a resurgence of the pandemic ahead of the JMMC meeting on Thursday. Most industrial metals were bolstered by the robust Chinese data; gold jumped on the back of the weaker dollar.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the Empire State manufacturing survey for September, as well as industrial production, capacity utilisation and the import price index for August. FedEx is among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot


  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,395.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 369.30
  • MXAP up 0.09% to 173.18
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 569.87
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 23,454.89
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,640.84
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 24,732.76
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,295.68
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 38,966.30
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.08% to 5,894.83
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,443.58
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $39.72/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,963.16
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.92
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to -0.471%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1884
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $39.72/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 0.815%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.3%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Federal Reserve’s new approach to setting interest rates will probably be hard to divine from the economic projections it’s set to publish on Wednesday
  • The head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management is shorting government bonds of Spain, France and Italy -- as well as the euro itself -- on the expectation that Turkey’s market ructions will soon be felt on the balance sheets of European banks
  • Barclays Plc asked Pritpal Gill, head of foreign exchange trading in Asia Pacific, to leave after about 18 months with the British lender

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk:

Asian equity markets were somewhat mixed as the region only partially sustained the momentum from the firm handover from the US where the tech sector resumed its outperformance and sentiment was underpinned by vaccine and M&A developments. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was indecisive and only briefly benefitted from the announcement to ease regional Victoria coronavirus restrictions, with strength in tech and mining stocks offset by losses in energy and financials, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) underperformed as exporters suffered from the ill-effects of a firmer currency and with Sony shares pressured by reports it is to reduce its PS5 sales forecast by 4mln units due to chip supply issues. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) eventually gained following a CNY 600bln MLF announcement by the PBoC and better than expected Chinese data where Industrial Production and Retail Sales both topped forecasts. In addition, China announced to extend tariff exemptions for 1 year on imports of some US products which were due to expire tomorrow, although the support for stocks was limited as uncertainty regarding TikTok remained given the no-algorithm inclusion aspect of the deal and with the US to block imports of cotton, linen, hair products and computer parts made by specific entities in Xinjiang. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat following similar rangebound trade in T-notes, while firmer demand at today’s enhanced liquidity auction for long-end JGBs only mildly supported as price action was once again hampered by resistance at the 152.00 level.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Consumers Join Industrial Recovery From Covid-19
  • China Gives Markets Just Enough Support, Lets Yuan Strengthen
  • Hong Kong to Reopen Pubs, Pools and Theme Parks From Friday
  • Singapore Trader Rhodium Sued by Maybank for $3 Million Payment

Europe saw an uninspiring cash open following a mixed APAC handover, but thereafter upside momentum seeped into the markets (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%) – with little by way of fresh catalysts to shift the dials ahead of the FOMC policy decision tomorrow. Nonetheless, performance across bourses remain mixed but tilted to the upside, with the DAX (+0.2%) the laggard in the region whilst IBEX (+1.6%) leads the gains, propped up by solid gains in index heavyweight Inditex amid broader consumer discretionary outperformance, with the sector underpinned by H&M (+13%) after a well-received trading update. Sticking with sectors, material names are supported by the USD-induced gains in copper coupled with strong Chinese data and a slew of broker upgrades for the UK mining sectors; for the likes of Anglo American (+2.4%), Glenore (+2.8%), BHP (+2.5%), Rio Tinto (+2.82%), Fresnillo (+0.6%) and Polymetal (+0.8%). To the downside, Financials are weighed by the European banking sector consolidation, with Spanish banks pressured after Caixabank (+0.9%) is said to be mulling a EUR 4bln bid for Bankia (-0.9%) vs. current market cap EUR 4.2bln, whilst UBS (-1.5%) threatened to move its HQ to Frankfurt if officials were to forbid a merger with Credit Suisse (-2.0%). In terms of other individual movers, Fiat Chrysler (+7.1%) has benefitting from a revision of its planned merger with PSA (-0.9%) which includes dividend cut in order to keep cash inside the merged entity. This has also weighed on the likes of Faurecia (-6.5%) as PSA is the majority shareholder in the group, will in turn delay the planned spinoff of Faurecia until after the mergers’ closing. Finally, Carrefour (-2.5%) shares remain on the backfoot after Credit Agricole corporate and investment bank launched the disposal of around 3.1% of Carrefour share capital.

Top European News

  • Panetta Says ECB Needs to Remain Vigilant on Inflation Outlook
  • Trial Against Carlos Ghosn Begins as Kelly Faces Charges Alone
  • U.K. Says ‘No Magic Solution’ for Struggling Covid Test System
  • William Hill Soars to 22-Month High; Partner Signs ESPN Deal

In FX, in contrast to yesterday, news that COVID-19 restrictions have been eased in the state of Victoria allied to a relatively upbeat economic assessment in the RBA minutes have boosted Aud/Usd and Aud/Nzd from sub-0.7300 and circa 1.0860 respectively, while the ongoing appreciation of the Yuan (CNY and CNH both through key resistance at 6.8000 vs the US Dollar) following stronger than expected Chinese data (ip and retail sales) has also propelled the Aussie a bit further than the Kiwi as Nzd/Usd pivots 0.6700 before Q2 current account data.

  • GBP - Encouraging UK labour market metrics and some LHS interest in the Eur/Gbp cross appear to be propping up the Pound rather than safe enough passage of the IMB through parliament last night, as Cable bounces from the low 1.2800 zone to retest 1.2900 and Sterling takes another look at bids/support protecting 0.9200 vs against the Euro. However, the 200 WMA at 1.2933 still poses a technical hurdle if 1.2900 is breached again and market contacts suggest a breach of 0.9200 may be shallow given ongoing no deal Brexit risk.
  • CHF/EUR - Also firmer vs the Greenback, with the Franc holding near the top of a 0.9090-55 range and undeterred by more deflationary Swiss import and produce prices, while the Euro trades closer to 1.1900 than 1.1850 amidst decent option expiry interest (1 bn between 1.1900-10, 1 bn at 1.1885 and 2.4 bn at 1.1850) and underpinned by ZEW readings beating consensus comfortably.
  • CAD/JPY/USD - The Loonie and Yen are narrowly mixed against the Buck, as Usd/Cad straddles 1.3150 in advance of Canadian manufacturing sales and Usd/Jpy hovers below 106.00 before several US data points and Japanese trade ahead of the Fed. Meanwhile, the DXY is tethered to 93.000 awaiting impetus in the run up to the FOMC or via fresh guidance and SEP forecasts in the newly adopted flexible AIT era.
  • SCANDI/EM - Moderately firmer oil prices and risk sentiment overall appear to have nudged the Norwegian and Swedish Crowns off Monday’s lows instead of data in the form of a wider trade deficit and fractionally softer than anticipated SA unemployment rate respectively. Moreover, improvements in the latest Norges Bank regional survey and the Riksbank rolling out Usd swap agreements until the end of Q1 next year may be keeping Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek capped at 10.7000 and 10.4000. Conversely, Turkey’s Lira is struggling to rebound after slipping briefly and marginally beneath 7.5000 as EU’s Borell warns that the country’s future relationship with the bloc is on the line. Elsewhere, the Rand will be eyeing SA business confidence for more pre-SARB pointers.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have been on an upward trajectory in the latter part of the European morning as traders balance the supply and demand implication arising from developments in the Gulf of Mexico alongside a resurgence of the pandemic ahead of the JMMC meeting on Thursday. In terms of the breakdown, the supply side sees disruptions from the myriad of hurricanes and tropical storms developing in the Atlantic, with Hurricane Sally the most pertinent as it is poised for landfall in the Gulf later today – with BSEE yesterday estimating that that approximately 21.39% of the current oil production and ~25.28% of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, with today’s update due at 1900BST. Sticking with supply side, sources yesterday suggested the OPEC+ meeting is unlikely to advocate deeper oil output cuts, with Saudi to reportedly not looking to lift oil prices, in-fitting with recent source reports via the FT. Moving to demand, the IEA cut its 2020 global oil demand growth forecast by 200k BPD, citing resurgence of COVID-19 cases, local lockdown measures, remote working and weak aviation for the downgrade. The agency also expects the recovery in oil demand to decelerate markedly in H2 this year. The report aligned itself with both the OPEC and EIA STEO, with OPEC and IEA also highlighting the renewed weakness in the Indian markets dragging on demand. Nonetheless, WTI resides around USD 38/bbl (vs. low 37.06/bbl) while its Brent counterpart regains a footing above 40.00 (vs. low 39.39/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver derive support from the softer USD to eke mild gains around USD 1960/oz and above USD 27/oz respectively. In terms of base metals, LME copper is supported and Shanghai copper was underpinned by the strong Chinese industrial production data and the recent gains in the stock markets, whilst Dalian iron ore futures came under pressure from lower Chinese steel margins.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 6.8, prior 3.7
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%; YoY, est. -2.1%, prior -3.3%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%; Index YoY, est. -3.2%, prior -4.4%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 3.0%; Capacity Utilization, est. 71.35%, prior 70.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap


I’ll be publishing my monthly chart book later today so please keep an eye out for that. We released a single off this new album yesterday and previewed our “Print money not babies” chart which basically reinforces our long standing view that money printing is going to increase for years to come unless in part we can magic up more people in the generations behind us. See the CoTD here and a reminder that if you want it straight to your mailbox daily please email Also a reminder that we published our annual long-term study last week. This year’s is entitled “The Age of Disorder” (link here).

It was “Merger Monday” in markets yesterday which must mean its “Takeover Tuesday” today? What will Wednesday welcome? Anyway, this M&A theme helped kick US equity markets off on a strong footing ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, as the S&P (+1.27%) and the NASDAQ (+1.87%) both saw major gains. The NASDAQ particularly benefited from the large M&A deals in Tech and Biotech, the two biggest components of the index. Although tech stocks led the advance, every sector in the S&P and 90% of all stocks in the index moved higher on the day. Meanwhile the VIX volatility index fell -1.0pts to 25.85, a lower mark than when the S&P hit record highs back on 2 Sept.

Oracle (+4.32%) had a good day after press reports (per Bloomberg) said that the company had reached a preliminary agreement in its bid for TikTok’s US operations, while Immunomedics was the top performer in the NASDAQ, seeing a massive +97.99%% advance after Gilead Sciences agreed to acquire the company for $21bn. Softbank remained in the tech headlines after agreeing to sell its chip division Arm Ltd. to Nvidia for $40bn. Nvidia, the seventh biggest company in the NASDAQ, rose +5.82% on the news. As has generally been the case this year however, European equities lagged behind, with the STOXX 600 up just +0.15% in spite of the tech outperformance there as well.

There were M&A headlines in Europe as well in the form of the perennial UBS / Credit Suisse merger story. The story emanated from an Inside Paradeplatz story, a Swiss Finance blog, claiming that the Chairmen of both banks are working on it together and had discussed the idea with the Swiss Finance Minister Maurer. Shares of Credit Suisse (+4.33%) and UBS (+2.47%) rose more than the Euro banking sector (+0.96%) – of which they are not eligible of course – on the reports.

On the coronavirus, there was mixed news on the vaccine front. AstraZeneca have restarted their trials in the U.K. (as we discussed yesterday), after an 8 day delay due to a subject falling ill, though the U.S. trial could remain on hold through midweek pending its independent probe. Separately, Pfizer CEO Bourla saw his weekend comments that it’s “likely” that the U.S. could deploy a vaccine before year-end expanded upon. He added that Pfizer and Germany partner, BioNTech, have a 60% chance of having an idea on the efficacy by the end of October.

Any positive vaccine news will be welcome as restrictions are once again being enacted as caseloads rise. France had over 6000 new cases on Monday, with Marseille and Bordeaux limiting public gatherings for individuals to 10 people or fewer, while the limit for large outdoor gatherings such as sporting events and concerts have been lowered to 1000 from 5000 people. Both regions are outlawing standing outdoor bars and will be shutting down bars and restaurants that are not strictly observing and enforcing distancing guidelines. Weekly cases in France are now up to 58,400 compared to a high of 41,000 back in April. Here in the UK the new guidelines restricting gatherings to no more than 6 people in both indoor and outdoor settings went into place yesterday as weekly cases are now over 21,000 for the first time since mid-May. Meanwhile Israel’s cabinet have voted to enact a second national lockdown starting at the end of this week as the country is currently seeing 25,000 new cases a week, compared to 12,000 weekly cases at the start of September. Cases in the US continue to fall as the major hotspots see cases coming back under control, however the weekly cases (243,800) have still not fallen under the highs of the first wave (217,700). Though as we have noted in the past the second wave saw fewer hospitalisations than the first, see the aforementioned upcoming chartbook for more on this.

Overnight we have seen China’s August economic data with retail sales (at +0.5% yoy vs. unchanged expected) and industrial production (at +5.6% yoy vs. +5.1% yoy expected) both beating expectations and thereby underscoring a rebound in economic activity due to fiscal stimulus and strong exports. Meanwhile the surveyed jobless rate came in line with expectations at 5.6% and YtD fixed asset ex rural were a touch better than expectations at -0.3% yoy. The Hang Seng (+0.57%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) are advancing this morning on the back of these data beats. Other bourses in the region are trading a bit more mixed with the Nikkei (-0.56%) and Asx (-0.17%) both down while the Kospi (+0.64%) is up. In FX, all G-10 currencies are up against the greenback with the euro advancing +0.20% to 1.1890 and the onshore Chinese yuan up +0.35% to 6.7868, the highest level since May 2019. Other EM currencies are also trading up. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.17% this morning.

While we’re on Asia, in Japan just after we went to print yesterday the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election was won by chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga, in line with expectations. Suga won more than 70% of the available votes, and is now almost certain to replace Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote tomorrow, with the new cabinet also expected to be announced the same day. Meanwhile overnight reports (per the Nikkei newspaper and Nippon TV) are suggesting that incumbent Finance Minister Taro Aso will keep his post in new cabinet. Aso has served as finance minister since the start of the Abe government in late 2012 and keeping him on would reinforce Suga’s message that he intends to keep the main policies of the outgoing Abe administration. Elsewhere, Aso has said overnight that the incoming government should consider calling an early election given plans to hold the postponed summer Olympics next year.

Staying on politics, Brexit got further attention yesterday, as the House of Commons began debating the Internal Market Bill, which passed its second reading vote by 340-263. However, that included 20 Conservative MPs who rebelled/abstained, including former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid, who said “It is not clear to me why it is necessary for the UK to break international law”. For those who haven’t been following this as closely as us in the UK, the controversy behind this bill is that elements of it would allow the government to override parts of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement reached with the EU, and hence break the UK’s international treaty obligations. The EU have given the UK until the end of the month to withdraw the relevant measures, but the UK government have shown no sign of backing down thus far, in spite of the fact that every former UK Prime Minister has now offered at least some criticism of the measures, albeit of varying degrees. Having passed its second reading, the bill now goes into committee stage from today and carries in into next week, during which amendments can be made by MPs. An important one there to look out for will be that from Tory MP Bob Neill, which would add the requirement that the House of Commons approve any measures before the government could decide to override the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement.

On yesterday’s meeting between the EU and China over a trade deal, Xinhua has reported overnight that President Xi Jinping agreed that both sides need to “accelerate” the negotiations for the deal but shrugged off Europe’s “lecturing” over human rights issues and doubled down on the stance that any criticism of China’s policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong is meddling in China’s internal affairs. Meanwhile, the EC Chief Ursula von der Leyen said of the meeting that “China has to convince us that it is worth having an investment agreement,” and the EU summit chair Michel told reporters that Xi Jinping appeared to be willing to allow visits by diplomats into the far western province of Xinjiang, however, details of this need to be worked out.

Turning back to yesterday and core sovereign bonds fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with gilts seeing the largest move as 10yr yields rose +1.2bps. Otherwise, yields on 10yr Treasuries (+0.7bps) and bunds (+0.1bps) all moved just slightly lower. Safe havens elsewhere advanced, with gold (+0.84%) recording its strongest performance in 2 weeks, and platinum (+2.88%) seeing its best day in a month. Oil lost ground however, as Brent crude (-0.55%) closed at its lowest level in 3 months.

There wasn’t a great deal of data yesterday, though we did get Euro Area industrial production for July, which saw a +4.1% increase (vs. +4.2% expected). That still leaves IP down -7.7% year-on-year however, compared to the -2.2% yoy decline in February, so there’s still some way to go before reaching pre-Covid levels again. Otherwise, the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator rose to 106 in August, its highest level since May 2017.

To the day ahead now, and today’s data highlights include the UK labour market statistics, the German ZEW survey for September, and Canadian manufacturing sales for July. Meanwhile from the US, we’ll get the Empire State manufacturing survey for September, as well as industrial production, capacity utilisation and the import price index for August. Otherwise, the ECB’s Panetta will be speaking.

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Looking Back At COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes

After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked,…



After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked, in March 2020, when President Trump and most US governors imposed heavy restrictions on people’s freedom. The purpose, said Trump and his COVID-19 advisers, was to “flatten the curve”: shut down people’s mobility for two weeks so that hospitals could catch up with the expected demand from COVID patients. In her book Silent Invasion, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, admitted that she was scrambling during those two weeks to come up with a reason to extend the lockdowns for much longer. As she put it, “I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.” In short, she chose the goal and then tried to find the data to justify the goal. This, by the way, was from someone who, along with her task force colleague Dr. Anthony Fauci, kept talking about the importance of the scientific method. By the end of April 2020, the term “flatten the curve” had all but disappeared from public discussion.

Now that we are four years past that awful time, it makes sense to look back and see whether those heavy restrictions on the lives of people of all ages made sense. I’ll save you the suspense. They didn’t. The damage to the economy was huge. Remember that “the economy” is not a term used to describe a big machine; it’s a shorthand for the trillions of interactions among hundreds of millions of people. The lockdowns and the subsequent federal spending ballooned the budget deficit and consequent federal debt. The effect on children’s learning, not just in school but outside of school, was huge. These effects will be with us for a long time. It’s not as if there wasn’t another way to go. The people who came up with the idea of lockdowns did so on the basis of abstract models that had not been tested. They ignored a model of human behavior, which I’ll call Hayekian, that is tested every day.

These are the opening two paragraphs of my latest Defining Ideas article, “Looking Back at COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes,” Defining Ideas, March 14, 2024.

Another excerpt:

That wasn’t the only uncertainty. My daughter Karen lived in San Francisco and made her living teaching Pilates. San Francisco mayor London Breed shut down all the gyms, and so there went my daughter’s business. (The good news was that she quickly got online and shifted many of her clients to virtual Pilates. But that’s another story.) We tried to see her every six weeks or so, whether that meant our driving up to San Fran or her driving down to Monterey. But were we allowed to drive to see her? In that first month and a half, we simply didn’t know.

Read the whole thing, which is longer than usual.


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Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study

Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis…



Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People who recovered from COVID-19 and received a COVID-19 shot were more likely to suffer adverse reactions, researchers in Europe are reporting.

A medical worker administers a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to a patient at a vaccination center in Ancenis-Saint-Gereon, France, on Nov. 17, 2021. (Stephane Mahe//Reuters)

Participants in the study were more likely to experience an adverse reaction after vaccination regardless of the type of shot, with one exception, the researchers found.

Across all vaccine brands, people with prior COVID-19 were 2.6 times as likely after dose one to suffer an adverse reaction, according to the new study. Such people are commonly known as having a type of protection known as natural immunity after recovery.

People with previous COVID-19 were also 1.25 times as likely after dose 2 to experience an adverse reaction.

The findings held true across all vaccine types following dose one.

Of the female participants who received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, for instance, 82 percent who had COVID-19 previously experienced an adverse reaction after their first dose, compared to 59 percent of females who did not have prior COVID-19.

The only exception to the trend was among males who received a second AstraZeneca dose. The percentage of males who suffered an adverse reaction was higher, 33 percent to 24 percent, among those without a COVID-19 history.

Participants who had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (confirmed with a positive test) experienced at least one adverse reaction more often after the 1st dose compared to participants who did not have prior COVID-19. This pattern was observed in both men and women and across vaccine brands,” Florence van Hunsel, an epidemiologist with the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb, and her co-authors wrote.

There were only slightly higher odds of the naturally immune suffering an adverse reaction following receipt of a Pfizer or Moderna booster, the researchers also found.

The researchers performed what’s known as a cohort event monitoring study, following 29,387 participants as they received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The participants live in a European country such as Belgium, France, or Slovakia.

Overall, three-quarters of the participants reported at least one adverse reaction, although some were minor such as injection site pain.

Adverse reactions described as serious were reported by 0.24 percent of people who received a first or second dose and 0.26 percent for people who received a booster. Different examples of serious reactions were not listed in the study.

Participants were only specifically asked to record a range of minor adverse reactions (ADRs). They could provide details of other reactions in free text form.

“The unsolicited events were manually assessed and coded, and the seriousness was classified based on international criteria,” researchers said.

The free text answers were not provided by researchers in the paper.

The authors note, ‘In this manuscript, the focus was not on serious ADRs and adverse events of special interest.’” Yet, in their highlights section they state, “The percentage of serious ADRs in the study is low for 1st and 2nd vaccination and booster.”

Dr. Joel Wallskog, co-chair of the group React19, which advocates for people who were injured by vaccines, told The Epoch Times: “It is intellectually dishonest to set out to study minor adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination then make conclusions about the frequency of serious adverse events. They also fail to provide the free text data.” He added that the paper showed “yet another study that is in my opinion, deficient by design.”

Ms. Hunsel did not respond to a request for comment.

She and other researchers listed limitations in the paper, including how they did not provide data broken down by country.

The paper was published by the journal Vaccine on March 6.

The study was funded by the European Medicines Agency and the Dutch government.

No authors declared conflicts of interest.

Some previous papers have also found that people with prior COVID-19 infection had more adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination, including a 2021 paper from French researchers. A U.S. study identified prior COVID-19 as a predictor of the severity of side effects.

Some other studies have determined COVID-19 vaccines confer little or no benefit to people with a history of infection, including those who had received a primary series.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still recommends people who recovered from COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine, although a number of other health authorities have stopped recommending the shot for people who have prior COVID-19.

Another New Study

In another new paper, South Korean researchers outlined how they found people were more likely to report certain adverse reactions after COVID-19 vaccination than after receipt of another vaccine.

The reporting of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, or pericarditis, a related condition, was nearly 20 times as high among children as the reporting odds following receipt of all other vaccines, the researchers found.

The reporting odds were also much higher for multisystem inflammatory syndrome or Kawasaki disease among adolescent COVID-19 recipients.

Researchers analyzed reports made to VigiBase, which is run by the World Health Organization.

Based on our results, close monitoring for these rare but serious inflammatory reactions after COVID-19 vaccination among adolescents until definitive causal relationship can be established,” the researchers wrote.

The study was published by the Journal of Korean Medical Science in its March edition.

Limitations include VigiBase receiving reports of problems, with some reports going unconfirmed.

Funding came from the South Korean government. One author reported receiving grants from pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 05:00

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‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded…



'Excess Mortality Skyrocketed': Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack 'Criminal' COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded experimental vaccines were hastily developed for a virus which primarily killed the old and fat (and those with other obvious comorbidities), and an aggressive, global campaign to coerce billions into injecting them ensued.

Then there were the lockdowns - with some countries (New Zealand, for example) building internment camps for those who tested positive for Covid-19, and others such as China welding entire apartment buildings shut to trap people inside.

It was an egregious and unnecessary response to a virus that, while highly virulent, was survivable by the vast majority of the general population.

Oh, and the vaccines, which governments are still pushing, didn't work as advertised to the point where health officials changed the definition of "vaccine" multiple times.

Tucker Carlson recently sat down with Dr. Pierre Kory, a critical care specialist and vocal critic of vaccines. The two had a wide-ranging discussion, which included vaccine safety and efficacy, excess mortality, demographic impacts of the virus, big pharma, and the professional price Kory has paid for speaking out.

Keep reading below, or if you have roughly 50 minutes, watch it in its entirety for free on X:

"Do we have any real sense of what the cost, the physical cost to the country and world has been of those vaccines?" Carlson asked, kicking off the interview.

"I do think we have some understanding of the cost. I mean, I think, you know, you're aware of the work of of Ed Dowd, who's put together a team and looked, analytically at a lot of the epidemiologic data," Kory replied. "I mean, time with that vaccination rollout is when all of the numbers started going sideways, the excess mortality started to skyrocket."

When asked "what kind of death toll are we looking at?", Kory responded " 2023 alone, in the first nine months, we had what's called an excess mortality of 158,000 Americans," adding "But this is in 2023. I mean, we've  had Omicron now for two years, which is a mild variant. Not that many go to the hospital."

'Safe and Effective'

Tucker also asked Kory why the people who claimed the vaccine were "safe and effective" aren't being held criminally liable for abetting the "killing of all these Americans," to which Kory replied: "It’s my kind of belief, looking back, that [safe and effective] was a predetermined conclusion. There was no data to support that, but it was agreed upon that it would be presented as safe and effective."

Carlson and Kory then discussed the different segments of the population that experienced vaccine side effects, with Kory noting an "explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society," adding "And why did the employed fare far worse than those that weren't? And this particularly white collar, white collar, more than gray collar, more than blue collar."

Kory also said that Big Pharma is 'terrified' of Vitamin D because it "threatens the disease model." As journalist The Vigilant Fox notes on X, "Vitamin D showed about a 60% effectiveness against the incidence of COVID-19 in randomized control trials," and "showed about 40-50% effectiveness in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 in observational studies."

Professional costs

Kory - while risking professional suicide by speaking out, has undoubtedly helped save countless lives by advocating for alternate treatments such as Ivermectin.

Kory shared his own experiences of job loss and censorship, highlighting the challenges of advocating for a more nuanced understanding of vaccine safety in an environment often resistant to dissenting voices.

"I wrote a book called The War on Ivermectin and the the genesis of that book," he said, adding "Not only is my expertise on Ivermectin and my vast clinical experience, but and I tell the story before, but I got an email, during this journey from a guy named William B Grant, who's a professor out in California, and he wrote to me this email just one day, my life was going totally sideways because our protocols focused on Ivermectin. I was using a lot in my practice, as were tens of thousands of doctors around the world, to really good benefits. And I was getting attacked, hit jobs in the media, and he wrote me this email on and he said, Dear Dr. Kory, what they're doing to Ivermectin, they've been doing to vitamin D for decades..."

"And it's got five tactics. And these are the five tactics that all industries employ when science emerges, that's inconvenient to their interests. And so I'm just going to give you an example. Ivermectin science was extremely inconvenient to the interests of the pharmaceutical industrial complex. I mean, it threatened the vaccine campaign. It threatened vaccine hesitancy, which was public enemy number one. We know that, that everything, all the propaganda censorship was literally going after something called vaccine hesitancy."

Money makes the world go 'round

Carlson then hit on perhaps the most devious aspect of the relationship between drug companies and the medical establishment, and how special interests completely taint science to the point where public distrust of institutions has spiked in recent years.

"I think all of it starts at the level the medical journals," said Kory. "Because once you have something established in the medical journals as a, let's say, a proven fact or a generally accepted consensus, consensus comes out of the journals."

"I have dozens of rejection letters from investigators around the world who did good trials on ivermectin, tried to publish it. No thank you, no thank you, no thank you. And then the ones that do get in all purportedly prove that ivermectin didn't work," Kory continued.

"So and then when you look at the ones that actually got in and this is where like probably my biggest estrangement and why I don't recognize science and don't trust it anymore, is the trials that flew to publication in the top journals in the world were so brazenly manipulated and corrupted in the design and conduct in, many of us wrote about it. But they flew to publication, and then every time they were published, you saw these huge PR campaigns in the media. New York Times, Boston Globe, L.A. times, ivermectin doesn't work. Latest high quality, rigorous study says. I'm sitting here in my office watching these lies just ripple throughout the media sphere based on fraudulent studies published in the top journals. And that's that's that has changed. Now that's why I say I'm estranged and I don't know what to trust anymore."

Vaccine Injuries

Carlson asked Kory about his clinical experience with vaccine injuries.

"So how this is how I divide, this is just kind of my perception of vaccine injury is that when I use the term vaccine injury, I'm usually referring to what I call a single organ problem, like pericarditis, myocarditis, stroke, something like that. An autoimmune disease," he replied.

"What I specialize in my practice, is I treat patients with what we call a long Covid long vaxx. It's the same disease, just different triggers, right? One is triggered by Covid, the other one is triggered by the spike protein from the vaccine. Much more common is long vax. The only real differences between the two conditions is that the vaccinated are, on average, sicker and more disabled than the long Covids, with some pretty prominent exceptions to that."

Watch the entire interview above, and you can support Tucker Carlson's endeavors by joining the Tucker Carlson Network here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 16:20

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