US equity futures traded higher led by tech stocks, after Tesla’s results beat expectations boosting hopes for another strong earnings season and allayed fears of an imminent recession. The electric-vehicle maker’s shares jumped 7.2% in premarket trading on Thursday, while United Airlines rose 7% after forecasting it will return to profit this year. By contrast, Alcoa dropped 5.7% after reporting worse-than-expected sales and higher inventories due to supply-chain disruptions. S&P futures rose 0.85% or 37 points to 4,493 while Nasdaq 100 futs rose 1.2% to 14,175. A selloff in Treasuries resumed with a debate raging around whether inflation is peaking: the 10-year Treasury yield added 4 basis points. The euro and German bund yields rose after hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials. The dollar reversed losses, gold slumped to session lows and bitcoin jumped above $42,000.

Tesla’s earnings provided some relief for investors in tech after Netflix’s 35% slump on Wednesday raised concerns that the industry is being hit by inflation and expected rapid monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. "The macroeconomic conditions are not favorable for tech companies this year,” she said. “Although we haven’t seen a shocking migration from tech to value names, the tech companies that have shaky future earnings, and that can’t pass inflation on to their customers will likely suffer more."

Besides the surging Tesla, here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alcoa (AA US) shares decline 5.7% in premarket trading Thursday after the aluminum producer’s 1Q revenue missed estimates.
• Netflix (NFLX US) shares fall 1.1% in premarket trading, extending Wednesday’s 35% plunge after the streaming firm announced a surprise decline in subscribers. Analysts highlight the company’s valuation and business model are under review, while inflation and competition are challenging for the stock.
• United Airlines (UAL US) shares rise 7.5% in premarket trading after forecasting a profit this year. It has experienced a “rapid improvement” in both demand and revenue, according to MKM Partners.
• U.S.-listed Macau casino operators Las Vegas Sands (LVS US), MGM Resorts (MGM US) and Melco Resorts (MLCO US) may be active after Shanghai reported a sharp increase in its number of seriously ill Covid patients.

Meanwhile, Chinese stocks extended this week’s rout as investors fretted over the economic effects of the nation’s Covid-Zero strategy, with lower-than-expected policy stimulus adding to their disappointment. An address by President Xi Jinping failed to soothe investors pining for more measures to support growth.

Bond bears have returned after Wednesday’s rally in Treasuries fueled by some investors including Bank of America and Nomura who said the panic over inflation and rate-hike bets had gone too far. However, a Federal Reserve anecdotal survey showed inflationary pressures remained strong. Meanwhile, equities stayed resilient to higher yields with their focus on earnings.

While the peak-inflation debate is intensifying, it’s unlikely to derail global central banks from their tightening path as commodity shortages from the war in Ukraine keep prices elevated. New Zealand inflation accelerated in the first quarter to the fastest pace in 32 years, validating the central bank’s pursuit of an aggressive tightening cycle. As noted yesterday, the U.S. 10-year real yield turned positive on Wednesday for the first time since March 2020 as traders added to bets on an aggressive Fed hiking cycle. However, the level failed to hold for long.

Separately, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey released Wednesday revealed that the U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace through mid-April, but rising prices and geopolitical developments created uncertainty and clouded the outlook for future growth.

“Strong demand allowed firms to pass through input cost increases in consumers,” Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note. “The anecdotal evidence supports our view the FOMC is well behind the curve and needs to tighten policy aggressively.”

In Europe, the travel and construction sectors led gain, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 0.9% higher. CAC 40 outperforms, adding 1.2%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.3%. Travel, construction and industrials are the strongest-performing sectors. French equities including Alstom and Saint-Gobain outperform after Wednesday’s sole debate between President Emmanuel Macron and nationalist leader Marine Le Pen reassured investors, with the pro-business incumbent seen as having dominated the encounter. Basic resources shares underperform in Europe, heading for the biggest three-day decline on a closing basis since January, as miners fall on 1Q production reports. ABB jumped 5.3% after the Swiss automation group reported better-than-expected earnings. Anglo American fell 8.2% in London after the mining company cut output goals and said costs would be higher than expected. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Nestle shares advance as much as 1.9% after the food company reported quarterly sales that exceeded market expectations. Analysts were impressed by the quality of the beat, highlighting the company’s pricing power.
• ABB shares rise as much as 5.9% after the industrial automation and robotics group’s 1Q results topped expectations.
• Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 7.7% after the paint maker’s first-quarter adjusted operating income beat estimates, which Citi says is the result of pricing offsetting increased raw material costs for the first time this cycle.
• Sartorius AG rises as much as 6.1%, biggest gainer on the Stoxx 600 Health Care subindex, after reporting earnings that included consensus beats on adjusted Ebitda and adjusted Ebitda margins.
• Rexel rose as much as 7.3% after reporting 1Q revenue that topped estimates. The electrical-supplies company enjoyed pricing benefits, though there may be questions about why it didn’t raise guidance, Citi writes in a note.
• Europeanlong-haul airlines rise on Thursday after U.S. peer United Air forecast a return to profit, with British Airways owner IAG +6.8%, Air France-KLM +4.1% and Lufthansa +3.9%.
• Anglo American stock drop as much as 9.3% after the miner cut some output goals and raised costs guidance; Antofagasta also slumps following production decline, trades “ex-dividend.”
• Carrefour falls as much as 4.4%, with Citi saying it could “pause” after a recent run even as it met 1Q sales expectations, with Latin America and French convenience stores outperforming.
• Kinnevik shares slide as much as 9.2%, the most since February, after reporting its latest earnings, which included a drop in NAV to SEK243.50 from SEK424 y/y

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, with Chinese and Hong Kong gauges leading losses on mounting growth concerns, while stocks in other parts of the region were mostly higher.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.5% Thursday before paring losses. Communication and consumer shares slipped as technology stocks got a boost for a second day from stabilizing bond yields. Japanese equities gained as the yen resumed weakening against the dollar. Chinese benchmarks extended declines as investors became increasingly worried about growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese tech stocks fell for a third consecutive day, weighed by shares linked to electric-vehicle production as lockdowns on the mainland disrupt logistics. Investors have so far been disappointed at Chinese attempts to counter the economic impact of lockdowns. JD.com Inc. and Pinduoduo Inc. fell at least 1.4% each in New York premarket trading.

The CSI 300 Index capped a fifth day of losses, with lockdown-induced disruptions to supply chains and a series of disappointing monetary policy decisions quelling sentiment. “The timing of the policy stimulus would be key,” said Wai Ho Leong, a strategist at Modular Asset Management, referring to China’s monetary policy. He added that investors are also watching for stabilization of Covid-19 cases. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is down from a three-year high as some investors called for dip buying after the recent rout. Still, more monetary tightening is expected as the Federal Reserve said inflation pressures remain strong and that rising prices are clouding the economic outlook. More aggressive tightening by the Fed in early May, “such as a 75 basis-point hike or start of balance sheet reduction, may limit the People’s Bank of China’s options going forward,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Japanese equities rose for a third day, driven by advances in electronics and machinery makers. Chemical makers also boosted the Topix, which gained 0.7%. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 1.2% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen resumed weakening against the dollar after rallying 0.8% Wednesday.

India’s stock gauges rose for a second consecutive session to further reduce their sharp losses in the previous five days, driven by a continued recovery in index heavyweight technology and banking stocks. Reliance Industries surged to a record, giving the biggest boost to the indexes, after Morgan Stanley raised the price target on India’s most valuable company by 11%, citing the company’s focus on hydrogen production amid global energy transition. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.5% to 57,911.68 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by an equal measure. There were 27 advancers, while 3 stocks declined. All but one the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed. Auto, consumer discretionary and finance companies were among the top performers

Australia's commodity-heavy stocks rose for a fifth day near a record high. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,592.80, climbing for a fifth day, led by gains in the industrial and real estate sectors. The five-day advance brought the benchmark less than 1% shy of a record high hit in August. Brambles rose after boosting its underlying profit at constant FX rates forecast for the full year. Meanwhile, Megaport plunged the most on record following its third-quarter revenue update. Citi said the result was weaker than expected and saw misses on monthly recurring revenue (MRR) and Megaport Virtual Edge (MVE) additions. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 11,954.00

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index rebounded back into the green after falling 0.1%. NZD and JPY are the weakest performers in G-10 FX. the Euro rallies while short-end German bond yields rise sharply in response to hawkish comments from ECB’s Wunsch and Guindos. EUR/USD rises 0.7% on to a 1.09 handle, outperforming in G-10. Money markets briefly price 75 bps of interest-rate hikes by the ECB’s December decision. China’s yuan dropped for a third day amid rising volatility; the currency extended declines amid rising volatility spurred by uncertainties surrounding policy support for the slowing economy. Cautious risk sentiment in global markets also weighed on the yuan ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later on Thursday.

In rates, treasuries resumed their drop and are cheaper across the curve, following wider losses across bunds after hawkish comments from ECB’s Wunsch and Guindos as money markets priced in a more aggressive rate path for the euro-zone central bank. Treasury yields cheaper by ~5bp across the curve with 10-year around 2.87%; bunds lead losses in core rates. The German curve leads a broad-based bear-flattening move. Short end moves sharply lower, with 2y and 5y yields rising 10-12bps. USTs and gilts follow but outperform by ~3bps at the 10y point. Peripheral spreads are mixed, tightening to core at the short end, widening a touch at the back end. Futures activity during Asia session and European morning has featured continued selling of 10-year note contracts via 5k-lot block trades, most recent at 6:38am. The IG corporate issuance slate is not too busy and includes Development Bank of Japan 5Y SOFR and KfW 5Y SOFR; four deals priced $10.5b Wednesday, taking weekly volume above $40b. Focal points of U.S. session focus include appearance by Fed Chair Powell and 5-year TIPS auction, both at 1pm ET.

European bonds fell, with 10-year bund yields adding 5 basis points. Traders are betting on three quarter-point hikes from the ECB this year, after Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said policy rates could be raised above zero before year-end, with the bank perhaps even deploying “restrictive” policy to get surging prices under control. Adding to the sense of urgency, fellow members Luis de Guindos and Martins Kazaks said a rate hike in July was possible.

In commodities, WTI drifts 1% higher to trade around $103; Brent is also firmer but off best levels and currently reside around the mid-point of USD 2.50/bbl ranges amid multiple pertinent updates. Namely, Russian-Ukraine negotiations and Mariupol developments, though we await Western confirmation, and China's COVID situation with strict curbs seemingly set to remain. Brazilian Oil Minister discussed raising oil output with the US amid the Ukraine crisis, while Brazil is willing to meet India's oil needs and wants Indian investment. Furthermore, the oil minister hopes oil prices stabilise below USD 100/bbl and said a high oil price is not good for producers and consumers, according to Reuters. Spot gold has continued to slip below the USD 1950/oz mark losing the 21-DMA at USD 1947 ahead of potential 50-DMA support at USD 1936.05/oz.

Bitcoin is firmer on the session but seemingly remains drawn to the USD 42k mark, in-spite of a brief foray above the figure.

Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde, who are taking part in a panel on the global economy, as well as BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Mann. Data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, and from the Euro Area there’s also the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for April. Finally, earnings releases include Danaher, NextEra Energy, Philip Morris International, Union Pacific and Blackstone.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 4,489.75
• MXAP down 0.2% to 171.95
• MXAPJ down 0.4% to 567.72
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,553.06
• Topix up 0.7% to 1,928.00
• Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 20,682.22
• Shanghai Composite down 2.3% to 3,079.81
• Sensex up 1.4% to 57,837.40
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,592.79
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,728.21
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 461.91
• Brent Futures up 0.9% to $107.76/bbl
• German 10Y yield little changed at 0.93%
• Euro up 0.6% to $1.0916
• Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,945.26
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.39% to 100.00

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The ECB could lift policy rates above zero before the end of the year unless the euro-zone economy suffers a severe shock, and it might even have to deploy “restrictive” policy to get surging prices under control, Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said
• The ECB should be able to phase out asset purchases in July to pave the way for an interest-rate increase as early as that month, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos
• The euro is being used less often as a global payment currency, posting its biggest percentage-point drop in more than a decade in March, as inflation and the war in Ukraine weigh on its appeal for transactions
• Liquefied natural gas suppliers are asking clients to pay much higher rates for new long-term contracts, as a global effort to cut Russian imports is expected to keep the market tight for the next decade
• President Xi Jinping defended China’s lockdown-dependent approach to fighting the pandemic, even as he sought to reassure the world that the country was still committed to opening its economy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Top Asian News

• China State Energy Giants in Talks for Shell’s Russian Gas Stake
• Japan Upgrades View of Economy Following Lifting of Covid Curbs
• Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Warns of Debt, Aging Risks
• BofA Said to Relocate Some Hong Kong Dealmakers to Singapore

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, upside that occurred alongside renewed EUR upside; potentially, on a stronger currency alleviating some imported-inflation pain. However, the FTSE 100 -0.1% is the clear laggard in-spite of favourable GBP action with heavy-weight mining names pressured after Q1 production reports. Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board, NQ +1.0%, following a strong TSLA, +7% pre-market, report and ahead of commentary from Fed's Powell at two events.

Top European News

• Fired BNP Boss Accused of ‘Emotional Terrorism’ Seeks $4 Million
• Macron Brushes Off Attacks as Debate Reassures Investors
• Dutch Government Votes to Tighten Bonus Rules For Finance Firms
• Binance Limits Russia Services After EU Sanctions on Crypto

FX

• Euro outperforms as dovish-leaning ECB member de Guindos tilts towards July hike and markets factor in 75 bps tightening before year end; EUR/USD hits 1.0936 high after breaching series of tech resistance levels and huge option expiries between 1.0900-05 (3.3 bln).
• Dollar rattled by Euro exertions and DXY loses 100.000+ status in response.
• Loonie and Kiwi diverge after mixed Canadian and NZ inflation data in relation to consensus, USD/CAD sub-1.2500 where 1.36bln expiry interest resides and NZD/USD sub-0.6800.
• Yen back under pressure as yields rebound markedly and BoJ continues efforts to impose YCT, while keeping verbal currency intervention trained on the pace rather than scale of moves, USD/JPY above 128.00.
• Pound undermined by EUR/GBP rally through technical resistance awaiting BoE rhetoric, while Yuan extends losses after latest weaker CNY fix and comments from Chinese media citing factors that may lead to further depreciation; Cable capped into 1.3100 and cross up over 21 and 50 DMAs to circa 0.8367.
• Rouble rebounds as CBR says it is contemplating FX controls, USD/RUB just under 80.0000.

Fixed Income

• Bonds reverse course after latest correction from bear market territory, with Bunds, Gilts and 10 year T-note trying to stay on 154.00, 118.00 and 119-00 handles.
• Eurozone debt hit by hawkish sounding remarks from usual ECB dove de Guindos to the effect that data may determine a July hike.
• French OATs hold up better than the rest after strong multi-tranche auction, on balance and Macron's outperformance during Presidential TV debate.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are firmer but off best levels and currently reside around the mid-point of USD 2.50/bbl ranges amid multiple pertinent updates.
• Namely, Russian-Ukraine negotiations and Mariupol developments, though we await Western confirmation, and China's COVID situation with strict curbs seemingly set to remain.
• Brazilian Oil Minister discussed raising oil output with the US amid the Ukraine crisis, while Brazil is willing to meet India's oil needs and wants Indian investment. Furthermore, the oil minister hopes oil prices stabilise below USD 100/bbl and said a high oil price is not good for producers and consumers, according to Reuters.
• Peru is to declare a state of emergency to restore copper output at the Cuajone mine which was halted by protests in late February, according to Reuters.
• Spot gold has continued to slip below the USD 1950/oz mark losing the 21-DMA at USD 1947 ahead of potential 50-DMA support at USD 1936.05/oz.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.46m, prior 1.48m
• 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 180,000, prior 185,000
• 08:30: April Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 21.4, prior 27.4
• 10:00: March Leading Index, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%

Central Bank Speakers

• 13:00: Powell and Lagarde Take Part in IMF Panel on Global Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a major selloff so far in April, sovereign bonds have pared back their losses over the last 24 hours as investors await comments today from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde, who’ll be appearing together on an IMF panel on the global economy in the New York afternoon. The moves saw 10yr Treasury yields undergo a major intraday swing, falling more than -13bps from their intraday high of 2.98% during Asian trading, before closing at 2.83%, ahead of a +3bps move back higher this morning. There seemed to be a belief that if inflation was in the process of peaking out, the strength of the recent rates sell-off might be overdone.

But even as longer-dated yields moved lower on both sides of the Atlantic, the front end has been much more subdued by comparison, with the 2yr yield falling just -1.6bps yesterday and actually up +3bps this morning as investors continue to price in yet more Fed hikes over the near term. In fact, the amount of hikes priced in by December hit a fresh high of 227bps yesterday, and when you include the 25bp hike from last month, that implies the Fed will have tightened by more than 260bps for the year as a whole, so more than the 250bps worth of tightening we saw back in 1994. Market pricing is in line with what the Fed has been communicating of late. Even yesterday’s dovish leaning speakers, Presidents Daly and Evans, expressed a desire to get policy rates to neutral by the end of this year, which the most recent dot plot pegs at right around 250bps. Looking beyond this year as well, the rate that futures are pricing in for June 2023 hit a fresh closing high of 3.10%, although that’s still beneath our US economists’ call for a rate of 3.6% by then.

This growing drumbeat for monetary tightening was echoed in Europe too, where a couple of speakers signalled that an initial rate hike as early as July was potentially on the table. First, we heard from Latvian central bank governor Kazaks in a Bloomberg interview, who said that “A rate increase in July is possible”. And then Bundesbank President Nagel said that there could be a rate hike “at the beginning of the third quarter” if asset purchases were finished at the end of Q2. Currently, overnight index swaps are only fully pricing in a 25bp hike by the September meeting, and that’s when our own European economists are also expecting the ECB to move on rates as well. So if July were realised that would be a step up from where markets currently are right now. That said, this would fit the pattern we saw with the Fed, where markets progressively brought forward the expected timing of the first hike, having initially not expected one in 2022 at all to the point where one got priced in as early as March, even with the shock presented by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Even with the increasing chatter around a July ECB hike, sovereign bonds in Europe pretty much echoed their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps), OATs (-4.6bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all moving lower. That came as European natural gas prices fell to another post-invasion low yesterday, down -1.21% at €92.63/MWh, though the war itself continues to show no sign of ending, with the commentary around any negotiations still taking on a very negative tone from both sides.

Equities put in a solid performance for the most part, although Netflix plunged -35.12% in trading after it reported a decline in subscribers in the first quarter, marking its worst daily performance since 2004. The move also leaves its share price at its lowest level in over 4 years, and the company’s YTD losses now stand at -62.45%, making it the worst performer in the entire S&P 500 on a YTD basis. My bingeing of Bridgerton 2 on holiday and starting the final series of Better Call Saul (the best show of the last few years) last night obviously hasn’t helped. Netflix’s decline dragged down a number of indices, with the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks shedding -6.17%, primarily due to the Netflix move, whilst the NASDAQ fell -1.22%. The broader S&P 500 was more resilient, falling a mere -0.06%, with 378 stocks actually advancing showing that big cap tech was a drag. European shares were stronger, with the STOXX 600 gaining +0.84% as it more than recovered from the previous day’s losses.

Contrary to Netflix, Tesla revealed a record profit on strong demand for electric vehicles and through the sale of carbon credits in their earnings after the close. Going forward, they believe production will continue to grow despite supply chain issues beleaguering the industry. TSLA shares were +5.59% higher in after hours trading, moving back above $1,000 a share.

Most Asian equity markets are trading higher but with mainland China and Hong Kong stocks lagging, hurt by worries about the Chinese economy as the nation continues to battle Covid-19 outbreaks. The Shanghai Composite (-1.68%), CSI (-1.05%) and the Hang Seng (-1.56%) are trading in negative territory as a speech by the Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to bolster investor sentiment as markets have been disappointed with Chinese attempts at tackling the economic impact of lockdowns. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.21%) and the Kospi (+0.48%) are trading up building on previous session gains. Looking ahead, stock futures are indicating a positive start after Tesla's earnings with the S&P 500 (+0.38%), Nasdaq (+0.55%) and DAX (+0.30%) in the green.

Oil prices are higher this morning with pressure in Europe to impose formal sanctions on Russian oil mounting. As I type, Brent futures are +1.04% higher at $107.91/bbl. In FX, the Japanese Yen continues to remain weaker and is -0.32% lower.

Elsewhere, we’re just 3 days away from the French presidential election runoff now. The second round candidates held their only debate last night, expounding their world views for about three hours. There didn’t seem to be anything from the debate that should tip the scales of the election in either direction. The polls continue to put President Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen, and yesterday’s releases maintained that pattern of Macron’s lead being outside the margin of error, with leads of 56.5-43.5 (Ipsos), 55.5-44.5 (Ifop), 55-45 (from Kantar), and 54-46 (from Harris).

There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, but we did get a fresh reminder on inflationary pressures from the German PPI data, which came in at a year-on-year rate of +30.9% in March (vs. +30.0% expected). It’s also the fastest annual rate since the official series begins in 1949. Otherwise, there were US existing home sales for March, which fell to an annualised rate of 5.77m as expected, the lowest rate since June 2020.

Elsewhere the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said Russia’s remuneration of foreign currency bonds with rubles would constitute a default, triggering credit default swaps on Russian debt. Recall, US bank custodians were prevented from processing Russian dollar debt payments earlier this month. Russia still has some time to avoid a default, with a 30-day grace period to make creditors whole expiring on May 4.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde, who are taking part in a panel on the global economy, as well as BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Mann. Data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, and from the Euro Area there’s also the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for April. Finally, earnings releases include Danaher, NextEra Energy, Philip Morris International, Union Pacific and Blackstone.