Futures Jump, Bonds Slump As Taiwan Tensions Ease
Futures Jump, Bonds Slump As Taiwan Tensions Ease
If yesterday morning markets were losing their mind over the potential risk of World War…
If yesterday morning markets were losing their mind over the potential risk of World War 3 ahead of Nancy Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan, this morning it has been a mirror image, with risk assets rising and fears unclenching as investor anxiety over tense US-China ties eased after Pelosi left Taiwan less than 24 hours after arriving after pledging solidarity and hailing its democracy, leaving a trail of Chinese anger over her brief visit to the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own. Meanwhile, despite all the jawboning, China's response to Pelosi's Taiwan visit fell short of more aggressive expectations raised by nationalists like Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, giving markets a breather. Among them:
- Trade: Beijing added boycotts to fish and fruit imports from Taiwan and banned natural sand exports. It also prohibited dealings with some Taiwanese companies including Hyweb.
- Markets: China's potential to weaponize its almost $1 trillion pile of US bonds became a source of chatter after yesterday's surge in Treasury yields.
- On the ground: Pelosi flew off after vowing the US wouldn't abandon Taiwan as she met with President Tsai Ing-wen. She was expected to meet with TSMC's chairman.
As a result, both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by about 0.5%. In New York premarket trading, while Treasuries extended a slide sparked by hawkish Federal Reserve comments (and the lack of world war). The dollar fell against most G-10 peers, gold fluctuated and oil was lower ahead of an OPEC+ meeting where some report output may be boosted by a modest 100kb/d (or less jet-fuel than Biden consumed flying on Air Force One to Jedda last month) as Saudis "appease"the president.
In premarket trading, Airbnb fell after the home-rental company missed estimates on bookings. Match Group fell after the parent to dating appsincluding Tinder gave a weak revenue forecast. PayPal Holdings jumped after the payments giant said activist investor Elliott Investment Management is now among its biggest shareholders. Robinhood slumped after saying it'll cut 23% of its workforce and shut two offices amid a reorganization. MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor is stepped aside as CEO to focus on Bitcoin after the token's plunge prompted a $1 billion loss. CVS beat and raised guidance. Under Armour,and Moderna are up next. Lucid and eBay are after hours.
While an immediate concern around US-China tensions may be fading Wednesday, investors still face a host of worries including inflation and how the policy response by central banks to surging prices could hobble global growth. Equities trading doesn’t reflect the headwinds confronting the market, according to Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell. Additionally, it remains to be seen what China's delayed response to Pelosi's visit will be. Here is a summary of the key overnight Taiwan/Pelosi linked headlines:
- US House Speaker Pelosi has concluded her Taiwan visit, has now departed on SPAR19
- US House Speaker Pelosi said there is bilateral support for Taiwan in the US and that her visit is a reminder of the bedrock promise America to always stand with Taiwan, while she added that the delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear that they will not abandon Taiwan. Pelosi also said they explored deepening trade ties with Taiwan and a trade agreement may be imminent, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
- Taiwan President Tsai told Pelosi she is one of Taiwan's most devoted friends and the visit shows firm US support for Taiwan, while she thanked Pelosi for her unwavering support of Taiwan on the international stage. President Tsai also said Taiwan will not back down in facing deliberately heightened military threats and Taiwan will do whatever it takes to strengthen its self-defence.
- White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications Kirby said the US is monitoring Pelosi's travel and has taken measures to ensure her safety, while he added that China has positioned itself to take further steps and the White House expects China to react beyond Pelosi's trip including by scheduling live fire exercises, while other steps by China could include economic coercion, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan Defence Ministry said Chinese drills have invaded Taiwan's territorial space and they will counter any move that violates Taiwan's territorial sovereignty, while it added that Chinese drills violate UN rules and amount to a blockade of Taiwan's air and sea space, according to Reuters.
- China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it will take disciplinary actions against two Taiwan foundations which will be banned from financially cooperating with mainland firms and individuals. China also announced a stoppage of certain fruit and fish imports from Taiwan and halted exports of natural sands to Taiwan which is a key component used in chip-making, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, China will adopt criminal penalties regarding Taiwan separatists and vowed criminal punishments for Taiwan-independence diehards, according to Xinhua.
- China's Vice Foreign Minister Xie lodged representations regarding Pelosi's Taiwan visit, according to Xinhua.
- Taiwan is negotiating alternative aviation routes with Japan and the Philippines, according to Taiwanese press.
Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials including Mary Daly, Loretta Mester and Charles Evans served to highlight a challenging backdrop of rising borrowing costs, price pressures and slowing economic growth. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the Fed has “a long way to go” on reaching price stability around a 2% inflation target. Cleveland counterpart Mester said she wants to see “very compelling evidence” that month-to-month price increases are moderating.
In crypto, Senate Democrats want to expand CFTC oversight to include trading in the largest digital assets. New legislation will be unveiled today amid questions over whether the derivatives regulator or the SEC is best placed to oversee the industry. Also of note: Thousands of Solana wallets were hacked overnight, and at least $8 million appears to have been stolen
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was little changed as traders assessed the latest company earnings. BMW AG sank as the carmaker flagged softening demand, while Societe Generale SA rallied after the French lender outlined new revenue targets. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Infineon rises as much as 3.7% after the chipmaker lifts full- year sales and margin guidance, marking the third straight quarter with an outlook boost. Citi says better margins provide some relief to concerns that the company may not be willing or able to price as aggressively as peers.
- Just Eat Takeaway’s shares gain as much as 6.1% in Amsterdam after swinging between gains and losses. The food delivery firm’s top-line growth and profit metrics missed consensus estimates but the report reassures investors that the firm is on track to reach positive adjusted Ebitda in FY23, according to analysts.
- Avast shares jump as much as 43%, the most on record, after the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority provisionally cleared its acquisition by NortonLifeLock, seen as a welcome surprise by analysts.
- Auto1 shares jump as much as 19% with analysts highlighting a strong quarterly revenue performance from the digital auto platform.
- JDE Peet’s shares rise as much as 12% after reporting 1H results which Citi called reassuring, noting that both adjusted Ebit and organic sales growth beat consensus expectations.
- Taylor Wimpey shares rise as much as 4.9%, second-best performer in FTSE 100 Index, after the UK homebuilder released 1H results and forecast FY operating profit around the top end of current market estimates. Citi called it an “encouraging” performance.
- Rolls- Royce shares gain as much as 4.1% in London after the UK company said that the Spanish government has approved the sale of ITP Aero to a consortium of investors led by Bain Capital Private Equity.
- Siemens Healthineers shares fell as much as 9.1%, the most ever since 2018 IPO, after the company reported weaker- than-expected earnings as supply chain snarl-ups and pandemic lockdowns in China hurt profits.
- BMW drops as much as 6.2% in Frankfurt trading despite a beat on second-quarter results; Citi notes that a downgrade to full-year free cash flow forecast “points to growing pressures” in 2H. Oddo BHF says the FY outlook update is likely to disappoint, highlighting a cut to the FCF outlook.
- Bank of Ireland shares drop as much as 5.9%, with Morgan Stanley saying weaker revenue drove a miss on the bottom line for the lender.
- Man Group shares fall as much as 5.6% on Wednesday, dropping for a third consecutive day as Barclays cuts its AUM estimate following weaker flow momentum in 2Q.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks pared losses as investors monitored China’s response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip along with the latest corporate results. MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific equity index slipped 0.2% in a mixed day after falling as much as 0.8% earlier. Japanese megabank MUFG was among the biggest drags as it reported a profit decline the previous day. Alibaba was among the biggest gainers and also lifted Hong Kong shares ahead of its earnings report on Thursday. Key equity gauges in Hong Kong and Taiwan fluctuated before closing slightly higher while equities in mainland China declined. Pelosi reaffirmed US support for the democratically elected government in Taipei. Beijing halted some trade with Taiwan and planned military drills around the island.
“Further deterioration of diplomatic relations between the two countries could hurt manufacturing and supply chains, stoking inflationary pressures,” said Manish Bhargava, a fund manager at Straits Investment Holdings in Singapore. Heightened US-China tensions have renewed pressure on Asian stocks, which capped their best month this year in July. The regional benchmark has underperformed US and European peers in 2022 amid worries about inflation, rising interest rates as well as China’s property crisis and Covid curbs.
Japanese stocks climbed as traders looked past an escalation in US-China tensions and a weaker yen boosted the outlook for exporters’ earnings. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,930.77 as of the close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 27,741.90. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain as it advanced 2%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 756 rose and 1,294 fell, while 120 were unchanged. “While NY stocks fell yesterday, Japan factored in tensions over US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan first,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, general manager at SBI Securities.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 6,975.90, dragged by weakness in banks as well as consumer discretionary and staples stocks. Nine of the 11 sub-gauges finished lower, with only mining and technology shares advancing. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.5% to 11,705.03. The nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from a record low in the second quarter but wages climbed at the fastest pace in 14 years, suggesting the central bank may need to keep raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation
Key Indian equity gauges also rose, capping a rally that’s brought benchmarks back to levels at the start of the year, as foreign inflows and a drop in crude oil prices supported appetite for riskier assets. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed for a sixth-straight session, rising 0.4% to 58,350.53, its highest level since April 12. The gauge fell as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose 0.3%. Both indexes have gained at least 5.5% over the past six sessions. The rally has been helped by a resumption of inflows from foreign funds, which purchased a net $1.5 billion of local stocks in the quarter through August 1. “A perceived pivot in the US Fed’s tightening cycle and cooling off of crude oil prices have made the macro environment more favorable for India, which has outperformed emerging markets and Asian peers by 6% in the last week,” S. Hariharan, head of sales trading at Emkay Global Financial Services wrote in a note. Price of Brent crude, a major import for India, fell below $100 a barrel as part of a drop by about 9% in the week. All but three of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell Wednesday, led by telecom companies, which were down amid worries over operators’ massive commitment for 5G expansion. A measure of IT companies was the best performer and climbed 1.3%, with heavyweight Infosys giving the Sensex its biggest boost.
European yield curves flatten after PMIs reaffirmed economic weakness in Europe, on the heels of hawkish remarks from Fed speakers. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.3%. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.4%, FTSE 100 is flat but underperforms peers. Travel, tech and insurance are the strongest performing sectors. S&P futures rise 0.2%. Nasdaq contracts are steady. Treasury curve inversion deepens with 2s10s widening 1.8bps. Bund and gilt curves bear-flatten. Bloomberg dollar spot index is slightly down but has steadied since Thursday’s climb. CHF and NZD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and CAD outperform. WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.5% to around $94. Spot gold rises roughly $7 to trade near $1,767/oz. Most base metals trade in the red; LME tin falls 1.4%, underperforming peers
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.1% erasing a bigger drop earlier. CHF and NZD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and CAD outperform. The yen swung between gains and losses as traders assessed rising US yields and China’s sanctions against Taiwan following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island. USD/JPY is largely unchanged on the day after snapping four days of losses on Tuesday. The dollar’s better performance followed comments by Fed officials that pushed back against the narrative that policy makers will slow down on rate hikes. EUR/USD gained as much as 0.3%; still, with more comments from Fed officials expected on Wednesday, “any fresh hawkishness could easily push EUR/USD back to parity,” ING Groep NV strategists wrote in a note. GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2194; UBS analysts see the pound falling to $1.15 this quarter and staying around that level until the end of the year.
In rates, the two-year Treasury yield added to its advance beyond 3% following a selloff in bonds on Tuesday sparked by Fed officials indicating the central bank has some way to go to curb inflation, leading traders to trim wagers on policy easing in 2023. Treasuries traded near session lows into early US session, following wider selloff across core European rates which underperform with stocks marginally higher. Yields cheaper by up to 4bp across front-end and belly of the curve, flattening 5s30s, 10s30s spreads by 1bp and 1.5bp; 10- year yields around 2.785%, cheaper by 3.5bp on the day and outperforming bunds by ~4bp. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement is due at 8:30am, where dealers forecast more cuts to issuance with particular emphasis on the 20-year sector. The market is awaiting ISM’s gauge of services in the US: “A reading below 50 might administer a strong shock to markets -- challenging yesterday’s jump in US Treasury yields and sharp fall in the Japanese yen,” according to Saxo Bank strategists. European yield curves flattened after PMIs reaffirmed economic weakness in Europe, on the heels of hawkish remarks from Fed speakers.
In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.5% to around $94. Spot gold rises roughly $7 to trade near $1,767/oz. Most base metals trade in the red; LME tin falls 1.4%, underperforming peers.
Bitcoin continues to firm after eclipsing the USD 23k handle from an initial USD 22.6k trough.
Looking at today’s economic data, we get July ISM services index and June factory orders for the US, with the focus on signs of economic weakness. A line-up of Fed speakers includes Bullard, Harker, Barkin and Kashkari. In Europe, trade balance will be due for Germany, along with Italy’s July services PMI and June retail sales, UK’s July official reserves changes, and Eurozone’s June PPI and retail sales. Corporate earnings will feature AXA, Maersk, CVS Health, Just Eat, Regeneron, Nintendo, BMW, Vonovia, Moderna, Booking, Fortinet, eBay, Telecom Italia and Robinhood. All eyes will also be on Taiwan.
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,101.50
- MXAP down 0.2% to 159.38
- MXAPJ little changed at 517.86
- Nikkei up 0.5% to 27,741.90
- Topix up 0.3% to 1,930.77
- Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 19,767.09
- Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,163.67
- Sensex down 0.2% to 58,041.78
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,975.95
- Kospi up 0.9% to 2,461.45
- STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 435.72
- German 10Y yield little changed at 0.85%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0186
- Brent Futures down 1.1% to $99.47/bbl
- Brent Futures down 1.1% to $99.48/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,766.57
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.15
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China Warns Airlines to Avoid ‘Danger Zones’ Around Taiwan
- World’s Food Supply Faces Threat as India Rice Crop Falters
- Fed Pushes Back Against Pivot Idea, With Inflation Yet to Slow
- China Hits Taiwan With Trade Curbs Amid Tensions Over Pelosi
- Pelosi Hints Gender Is Real Reason China Is Mad at Taiwan Trip
- Pelosi Vows US Won’t Abandon Taiwan in Face of China Threats
- Oil Swings as OPEC+ Decision on Production Takes Center Stage
- Taiwan Turmoil Prompts Detours, Delays for Global Shipping
- Pelosi Knocks Out China’s Weibo as Millions Track Taiwan Trip
- Pelosi Visit Highlights TSMC and Taiwan’s Global Tech Import
- ‘Burn Pit’ Bill Passes Senate After Jon Stewart Assails GOP
- China Disappointment Over Taiwan Response Puts Pressure on Xi
- Twitter Subpoenas Musk Deal Investors, Digs Into Andreessen, VCs
- Apollo Said Nearing $3.2 Billion Takeover of Atlas Air Worldwide
- JPMorgan’s China Calls Show Market Timing Is Tough: Tech Watch
- Fed Pushes Back Against Pivot Idea, With Inflation Yet to Slow
- Microsoft Investor Targets Donations to Anti-Abortion GOP Groups
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly kept afloat with markets somewhat relieved following US House Speaker Pelosi’s safe arrival in Taiwan but with upside capped given China’s response including the announcement of military drills and bans on trading certain items with Taiwan. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in consumer-related sectors despite better-than-expected Retail Sales. Nikkei 225 gained amid earnings updates and with exporters underpinned after yesterday’s resumption of the currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rebounded from recent losses but with the recovery contained by the geopolitical concerns and mixed Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data in which both remained in expansion territory albeit with a slowdown in the latter.
Top Asian News
- Chinese city of Yiwu imposed COVID restrictions and locked down some areas, according to Reuters.
- Nomura’s 97% Profit Drop Adds Urgency to Shift Away From Trading
- Billion-Dollar IPOs Keep Coming to Mainland China: ECM Watch
- Blinken Doesn’t Plan to Meet China’s Wang, Lavrov in Cambodia
- S. Korea Presidential Office Says Pelosi-Yoon Meeting Unlikely
- Nomura to Review Retail Costs as Business Trails Daiwa Again
- Turkish Inflation Approached 80% in July and Has Yet to Peak
- Stand By Me: The Bloomberg Close, Asia Edition
- Nintendo Expects Switch Output to Improve From Late Summer
European bourses are mixed but with a modest positive underlying bias emerging as the session progresses ahead of key risk events, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%. Note, the FTSE 100 -0.1% is the morning's clear laggard owing to its high energy exposure as the broader crude complex comes under pressure. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, moving directionally with their European peers and eyeing US/China/Taiwan, ISM Services and Fed speak.
Top European News
- EDF to Curb Nuclear Output as French Energy Crisis Worsens
- UK July Composite PMI 52.1 vs Flash Reading 52.8
- Ukraine Latest: US Blacklists Former Gymnast Linked to Putin
- Avast Jumps on UK Regulator’s NortonLifeLock Deal Clearance
- Vonovia Results Show Resilience, Upside Potential: Analysts
- Danish Gas Field Delays Restart, Raising Stakes in Energy Crisis
- Buck wanes after decent bounce on hawkish Fed vibes and marked rebound in US Treasury yields, DXY nearer 106.000 than 106.550 recovery high.
- Aussie pares some post-RBA losses as Kiwi labours in wake of sub-forecast NZ jobs data, AUD/USD back on 0.6900 handle, AUD/NZD just under 1.1100 and NZD/USD hovering around 0.6250.
- Yen attempts to stabilise following sharp retreat, USD/JPY circa 133.00 between 132.28-133.90 band and sub-130.50 low on Tuesday.
- Euro derives some support from broadly better than expected Eurozone PMIs, but faces hefty option expiries vs Dollar between 1.0195-1.0200 (1.84bln).
- Franc lags after fractionally softer anticipated headline YY Swiss CPI, but Lira remains pressured as Turkish inflation metrics rise further, USD/CHF approaching 0.9600 and USD/TRY elevated around 17.9500.
- Sterling cautious ahead of BoE on Thursday with analysts and markets split on 25/50bp hike verdict, Cable pivots 1.2150 and EUR/GBP straddles 0.8350.
- Bond reversal extends with Bunds sub-157.00 vs 159.70 at best yesterday, Gilts under 118.00 from almost 120.00 on Tuesday and 10 year T-note just shy of 120-00 compared to 122-02.
- 2038 German supply lacklustre as demand dips and retention rises.
- Debt still feeling the after-effects of hawkish Fed commentary and eyeing further speeches in pm session.
- Benchmarks have been moving lower as we head into today's JMMC and OPEC+ events, sources thus far suggest production will be maintained or subject to a small increase - newsquawk preview available here.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.2mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing +0.7, Distillates -0.2mn (exp. +1.0mln) and Gasoline -0.4mln (exp. -1.6mln).
- Kazakhstan's Energy Minister says OPEC+ nations are to discuss the fate of the deal after 2022 at Wednesday's meeting. Current prices of USD 100/bbl are above the preferred USD 60-80/bbl corridor; OPEC+ needs to look at prices so they become more realistic.
- Three OPEC+ sources state that they see "very little chance" for an oil output increase at today's meeting, according to Reuters.
- OPEC Sec Gen says OPEC expects demand to continue to recover albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year and 2021, according to Algerian TV; Challenges to the supply of US shale is impacting global supply and demand.
- Three ships may leave Ukrainian ports daily vs one per day following the first ships successful departure, via a Senior Turkish Official.
- Spot gold is firmer as the USD pulls-back further, but the yellow metal remains well within yesterdays and recent parameters; base metals are mixed owing to broader uncertainty.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.8%
- 09:45: July S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 47.0, prior 47.0
- 09:45: July S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 47.5
- 10:00: June Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%; -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 10:00: June Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 1.6%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 1.7%
- 10:00: June Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%
- 10:00: June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%
- 10:00: July ISM Services Index, est. 53.5, prior 55.3
- 07:30: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on CNBC
- 10:30: Fed’s Harker speaks on fintech at Philadelphia Fed conference
- 11:15: Fed’s Daly speaks in Reuters Twitter Space event
- 11:45: Fed’s Barkin gives speech on inflation
- 14:30: Fed’s Kashkari speaks in fireside chat
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’m trying not to get too distracted by markets during the day for the next couple of weeks until I have to start work on the EMR as I’m trying to write my annual long-term study before holidays in the second half of the month. However, I couldn’t resist engaging in the bizarre spectacle of tracking and then watching a US politician’s plane land yesterday afternoon US time. It seems like the entire market was also watching if you look at the reaction. Yields sold off and US equities moved back into positive territory as US House leader Pelosi's plane landed in Taiwan without incident at 3:43pm BST yesterday. The last time I watched a plane tracker was when Liverpool tried to sign a player on transfer deadline day.
To be fair yields had already moved a lot higher earlier as hawkish Fed speak cast some doubt on the (dubious) Fed pivot narrative that's been developing since the FOMC. Anyway, we’ll move onto a big sell-off in yields in a bit but first more on Speaker Pelosi. In response to Pelosi's visit, China announced a series of military tests and drills from August 4th (tomorrow) to August 7th that will encircle Taiwan. These drills are said to be the most significant since 1995. So things will undoubtedly be tense for a few days. Additionally, China has imposed a series of punitive economic moves, including suspending exports of natural sand to Taiwan and banning various food imports from the Island.
10-year US yields had already climbed 10bps before Speaker Pelosi's safe landing, mostly in the hour or so before the plane landed on comments from San Fran Fed President Daly who said the Fed’s work was “nowhere near” done on fighting inflation. Chicago Evans’ comments didn’t really move the market but Mester highlighted that “monthly inflation hasn’t even stabilized yet”. 2 and 10yr yields eventually closed up +19.7bps and +18.6bps, respectively, and thus inverted the curve back a bit to around cycle lows of -30.6bps. In fact, this move has wiped out the post FOMC dovish pivot interpretation. Indeed, looking at swaps pricing, last Tuesday (pre-FOMC) the terminal rate peaked at 3.40% for the December meeting, in contrast to yesterday’s close that sees it around 3.44% in February. Both dipped to the low 3.20s after the strange interpretation of the FOMC.
Speaking after the bell, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also gave a hawkish message by expressing confidence in the US economy stating that the economy can avoid a recession, even though he expects the Fed will need to keep hiking rates to control inflation.
In fact, the 10yr US move yesterday was the 4th biggest in the last 5 years behind 2 Covid days and the WSJ leaked 75bps story just before the June FOMC last month. The 2yr move was the 4th biggest in the last decade with 9 of the top 10 happening so far in 2022 with one just after the Covid lows. So we're still seeing big volatility in markets. As we go to print, yields on the 10yr USTs are -4.18bps lower, currently at 2.71%. We did highlight that one of the reasons that August is usually bullish for bonds is that corporate issuance is light and thus leaving investors having to park money in government bonds. However, the surprise of the first two days of August is how much US corporate supply there has been. Bloomberg reported that we're already seeing supply estimates for the entire month surpassed already. So maybe some money rolled out of Treasuries yesterday that was loosely parked there.
US stocks were originally chiefly preoccupied by geopolitics before the spike in yields gathered momentum, with major benchmarks recouping earlier losses as Speaker Pelosi landed in Taiwan only to dive back into the red again after headlines of China’s missile tests came through shortly after. Dragged lower by the risk sentiment and then ever higher yields, the Nasdaq (-0.16%) outpaced the S&P 500 (-0.67%), although both ended the day way off the intraday highs. As the risk-off mood took over by the close, 76% of the index constituents ended the day lower, with no sector in the green for the day. Most pain came from real estate (-1.30%), financials (-1.07%) and industrials (-1.05%). On the other end of the performance spectrum were communications (-0.18%), energy (-0.21%) and utilities (-0.22%) stocks as investors looked for more stable names.
Some dispersion in price action also came from earnings, which provided a boost to sentiment earlier in the day after solid results from Uber and Lyft. Yet, Caterpillar’s results and earnings call sent a gloomy message for capital-intensive stocks by pointing to sticky costs and supply-chain issues. Speaking of the latter, it was a tailwind for Maersk that raised its guidance by expecting full-year EBIT of $31bn (up from $24bn) and the company will report its earnings this morning. It was a more cheerful day for oil firms as well, with BP rounding up oil majors’ reporting season yesterday by raising dividend and boosting buybacks. The five firms have squirreled $62bn in income in the last quarter amid elevated oil prices that helped trading firm Vitol report record profits as well. But with crude prices struggling in recent weeks, the meeting of OPEC+ today will be in focus. Oil prices were up by +0.31% for WTI and +0.08% for Brent yesterday but WTI is around -0.48% lower this morning.
European yields were also lifted by the hawkish tone in the US, especially in the front end. Yields on bunds rose +3.9bps, ahead of the +0.9bps rise in breakevens. The 2y (+7.8bps) raced ahead in a bear flattening. A similar picture but with larger magnitudes in moves was seen in France (OATS +5.9bps and front end +17.5bps) and Italy’s (BTPs +6.8bps and front end +8.0bps) markets. Higher yields weighed on stock markets in the region as the STOXX 600 declined by -0.32%. IT (-1.45%) and discretionary (-1.10%) stocks were the main drivers, and only four sectors managed to cling to gains on the day, led by energy (+0.57%) and utilities (+0.51%). So Spain’s IBEX (+0.15%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.06%) were the relative outperformers in the region.
Back to yesterday and markets got a brief reprieve from geopolitical headlines when the JOLTS data dropped early in the US session. Going through the numbers, the headline figure fell by more than the median estimate on Bloomberg (10.7m vs 11m) from May’s 11.25m in a sign of some easing in the labour market. In fact, it was the first miss since January. However, this is still relative to 7.2m job openings in January 2020 so it’s all relative. Metrics like private quits (unchanged at 3.1%) and the vacancy yield at 0.56 continued to point to historical tightness despite the miss in openings. In line with warnings we received from US retailers in the recent weeks, retail (-343k) and wholesale trade (-82k) saw the largest decreases in openings. Overall the data is consistent with a historically very tight labour market, albeit one where some of this pressure is loosening.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning after stumbling earlier following China stepping up the rhetoric with Speaker Pelosi's Taiwan visit. As I type, the Hang Seng (+0.60%) is trading higher led by a rebound in Chinese listed technology stocks whilst the Nikkei (+0.53%) and the Kospi (+0.50%) are also up. Over in Mainland China, markets are mixed with the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) in the green while the CSI (-0.04%) has been oscillating between gains and losses in early trade. Further, US stock futures are fluctuating in Asia with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.13%) higher while NASDAQ 100 futures (-0.04%) are just below the flat line.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s service sector activity nearly stagnated in July as the final au Jibun Bank Japan Services dropped to a seasonally adjusted 50.3, marking the lowest reading since March.
Today’s economic data releases will include July ISM services index and June factory orders for the US, with the focus on signs of economic weakness. A line-up of Fed speakers includes Bullard, Harker, Barkin and Kashkari. In Europe, trade balance will be due for Germany, along with Italy’s July services PMI and June retail sales, UK’s July official reserves changes, and Eurozone’s June PPI and retail sales. Corporate earnings will feature AXA, Maersk, CVS Health, Just Eat, Regeneron, Nintendo, BMW, Vonovia, Moderna, Booking, Fortinet, eBay, Telecom Italia and Robinhood. All eyes will also be on Taiwan.
Asia’s trade at a turning point
Policymakers in Asia are rightly focused on the potential reconfiguration of global supply chains, given the implications these shifts may have for the…
By Sebastian Eckardt, Jun Ge, Hassan Zaman
Policymakers in Asia are rightly focused on the potential reconfiguration of global supply chains, given the implications these shifts may have for the development of their export-oriented and highly open economies. While the focus on potential shifts on the supply side of the global and regional trading system is well-justified, equally dramatic shifts on the demand side deserve as much attention. This blog provides evidence of the growing role of final demand originating from within emerging Asia and draws policy implications for the further evolution of trade integration in the region.
Trade has been a major driver of development in East Asia with Korea and Japan reaching high-income status through export-driven development strategies. Emerging economies in East Asia, today account for 17 percent of global trade in goods and services. With an average trade-to-GDP ratio of 105 percent, these emerging economies in East Asia trade a higher share of the goods and services they produce across borders than emerging economies in Latin America (73.2 percent), South Asia (61.4 percent), and Africa (73.0 percent). Only EU member states (138.0 percent), which are known to be the most deeply integrated regional trade bloc in the world, trade more. Alongside emerging East Asia’s rise in global trade, intra-regional trade—trade among economies in emerging East Asia—has expanded dramatically over the past two decades. In fact, the rise of intra-regional trade accounted for a bit more than half of total export growth in emerging East Asia in the last decade, while exports to the EU, Japan, and the United States accounted for about 30 percent, a pattern that was briefly disrupted by the COVID-19 crisis. In 2021, intra-regional trade made up about 40 percent of the region’s total trade, the highest share since 1990.
Drivers of intra-regional trade in East Asia are shifting
Initially, much of East Asia’s intra-regional trade integration was driven by rapidly growing intra-industry trade, which in turn reflected the spread of cross-border global value chains with greater vertical specialization and geographical dispersion of production processes across the region. This led to a sharp rise in trade in intermediate goods among economies among emerging economies in Asia, while the EU, Japan, and the United States remained the main export markets for final goods. Think semiconductors and other computer parts being traded from high-wage economies, like Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, China for final assembly to lower-wage economies, initially Malaysia and China and more recently Vietnam, with final products like TV sets, computers, and cell phones being shipped to consumers in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
The sources of global demand have been shifting. Intra-regional trade no longer primarily reflects shifts in production patterns but is increasingly underpinned by changes in the sources of demand for exports of final goods. With rapid income and population growth, domestic demand growth in emerging East Asia has been strong in recent years, expanding by an average of 6.4 percent, annually over the past ten years, exceeding both the average GDP and trade growth during that period. China is now not only the largest trading partner of most countries in the region but also the largest source of final demand for the region, recently surpassing the U.S. and the EU. Export value-added absorbed by final demand in China climbed up from 1.6 percent of the region’s GDP in 2000 to 5.4 of GDP in 2021. At the same time, final demand from the other emerging economies in East Asia has also been on the rise, expanding from around 3 percent of GDP in 2000 to above 3.5 percent of GDP in 2021. While only about 12 cents of every $1 of export value generated by emerging economies in Asia in 2000 ultimately met consumer or investment demand within the region, today more than 30 cents meet final demand originating within emerging East Asia.
Figure 1. Destined for Asia
Source: OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables, staff estimates. Note: East Asia: EM (excl. China) refers to Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
These shifting trade patterns reflect dramatic shifts in the geography and makeup of the global consumer market. Emerging East Asia’s middle class has been rising fast from 834.2 million people in 2016 to roughly 1.1 billion in 2022. Today more than half of the population—54.5 percent to be precise—has joined the ranks of the global consumer class, with daily consumer spending of $12 per day or more. According to this definition, East Asia accounted for 29.0 percent of the global consumer-class population by 2022, and by 2030 one in three members of the world’s middle class is expected to be East Asian. Meanwhile, the share of the U.S. and the EU in the global consumer class is expected to decline from 19.2 percent to 15.8 percent. If we look at consumer-class spending, emerging East Asia is expected to become home to the largest consumer market sometime in this decade, according to projections, made by Homi Kharas of the Brookings Institution and others, shown in the figure below.
Figure 2. Reshaping the geography of the global consumer market
Source: World Bank staff estimates using World Data Pro!, based on various household surveys. Note: Middle-class is defined as spending more than $12 (PPP adjusted) per day. Emerging East Asia countries included in the calculation refer to Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and China.
Intraregional economic integration could act as a buffer against global uncertainties
Emerging economies in Asia are known to be the factories of the world. They play an equally important role as rapidly expanding consumer markets which are already starting to shape the next wave of intra-regional and global trade flows. Policymakers in the region should heed this trend. Domestically, policies to support jobs and household income could help bolster the role of private consumption in the steady state in some countries, mainly China, and during shocks in all countries. Externally, policies to lower barriers to regional trade could foster deeper regional integration. While average tariffs have declined and are low for most goods, various non-tariff barriers remain significant and cross-border trade in services, including in digital services remains particularly cumbersome. Multilateral trade agreements, such as ASEAN, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) offer opportunities to address these remaining constraints. Stronger intraregional trade and economic integration can help diversify not just supply chains but also sources of demand, acting as a buffer against uncertainties in global trade and growth.spread covid-19 tariffs gdp global trade consumer spending africa japan europe eu china
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California Hospital Refuses Transplant Surgery For Unvaccinated Woman With End-Stage Kidney Disease
California Hospital Refuses Transplant Surgery For Unvaccinated Woman With End-Stage Kidney Disease
Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch…
Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Even on a good day, Linda Garinger of Ramona, California, thinks about dying.
Since she went on kidney dialysis two years ago, she’s had a heart attack and a cardiac episode associated with her thrice-weekly treatments.
Her energy is low as her other vital organs slowly fail. Her blood pressure is out of control—hovering at around 200 systolic over “100-something”diastolic whenever she undergoes dialysis.
Garinger feels it’s only a matter of time before her next heart attack, which could prove fatal unless she gets a new kidney.
“The dialysis is very stressful on me. My vision is going. My hair is falling out. I’ve got skin cancer,” said Garinger, 68. “They said it’s from the dialysis not filtering out all the bad stuff.
“My biggest fear is I’ll have a heart attack during dialysis. I’m just going downhill right now.”
In 2022, Garinger was eagerly waiting for a kidney transplant at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, having found a good organ match in her daughter, the doctors told her.
But, “I needed [the transplant] like two years ago,” Garinger said.
Early last May, Garinger received an unexpected letter from the hospital saying she was no longer on the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) waitlist for a kidney transplant.
“The reason for this status change is you have not had your COVID vaccines,” read the May 6, 2022, letter Garinger shared with The Epoch Times.
“Once this situation is remedied, you will be evaluated for re-activation on the transplant waitlist.”
Garinger did not appeal the hospital’s decision. She knew “in her gut” her unvaccinated status would always be a problem.
Still, she put her faith in Sharp Memorial, only to be put through tests, medical procedures, and consultations at a substantial cost to Medicare.
“The whole time, they knew I wasn’t vaccinated and that [my daughter] wasn’t vaccinated. They would always ask me, ‘Why don’t you want to get a vaccine?'”
“I was pretty adamant,” said Garinger. “I didn’t want to take anything that was still experimental.”
She remembered her good friend who died two weeks after receiving a COVID shot. “She lived right over here, on the other side [of the street],” Garinger said.
Garinger said she was fortunate to find another hospital nearby that would operate without her taking the vaccine.
Starting All Over
The challenge now is the time it will take to complete all the required paperwork and preliminary procedures, the time it will take to get on a waitlist for a kidney donor, and the time it will take to find a donor.
She fears her time will run out before then.
One sympathetic doctor said, ‘Linda, you could drop over dead. Your heart could stop.’ So, I have to watch what I eat, and on the days I don’t do dialysis, I take this powder that tastes like gritty sand” to remove the excess potassium from her body.
Garinger finds herself among many people who need an organ transplant but are up against a medical system still adhering to vaccine protocols in many facilities.
In a 2021 Healio transplantation survey, 60 percent of the 141 transplant centers that responded did not require a COVID-19 injection before surgery. The survey sample represented just over 56 percent of the transplant centers in the United States.
Jeffrey Childers, a commercial attorney based in Gainesville, Florida, served clients facing COVID-19 mandates at hospitals and medical clinics during the pandemic.
He said Garinger’s case reflects the “COVID mania” that permeated the medical establishment beginning in 2020.
“This was an ugly manifestation of the COVID management regime that popped up,” Childers said. “All the cases get a lot of attention because people are horrified. But the transplant people will say they have limited resources, only get so many organs each year, and we have to give them to people with the best survival chances. They’ll hide behind that forever.”
Childers said health care facilities still have tremendous discretionary power to make critical decisions concerning COVID-19 vaccines.
“To see these kinds of life-and-death bureaucratic powers wielded by people who are not motivated by the science but—something else—is horrifying,” Childers said.
“I’ve run into it a handful of times in Florida. The law that applies is state dependent. The folks who manage those donor lists and the assignments have a lot of discretion.
“It’s even more appalling it’s happening now so late in the pandemic when the mandates are gone. You can’t find a single person who says they regret not taking the vaccine. But you can find tons going the other way.”
Childers said pro-vaccine advocates argue that an unvaccinated recipient is much more likely to die from COVID-19 following transplant surgery than a vaccinated patient.
“I don’t know the official line anymore,” he told The Epoch Times. “[The vaccine] doesn’t stop you from dying. It doesn’t stop you from getting sick.”
One study in the November 2022 MDPI, a Switzerland-based publisher of open-access scientific journals, claimed that over 60 days, the death rate among unvaccinated kidney transplant patients was 11.2 percent at the time of COVID-19 infection.
The study found the death rate among the vaccinated was 2.2 percent. More than two-thirds of the 144 patients in the study received a kidney transplant.
By contrast, a study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine in September 2022 found that some cornea transplant patients rejected the grafts after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.
In some cases, the rejection took place 20 years after the procedure.
Childers believes the science generally does not support the notion that unvaccinated transplant recipients are at an increased risk of dying from COVID-19.
“The argument is always don’t give an organ to a person who is living some kind of lifestyle that is risky or increases the risk of dying from something else,” Childers told The Epoch Times.
“That’s the logic they’re applying to this. They’re essentially saying by not taking the vaccine, [transplant patients] are at higher risk of dying from COVID. So they don’t want to give an organ to somebody at high risk voluntarily.”
Ohio attorney Warner Mendenhall, representing clients in vaccine mandate cases, said he knows at least 60 organ transplant denial suits working through the medical freedom group Liberty Counsel.
Each case involves a client refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine required for transplant surgery.
“We’re seeing [transplant denials] at many hospitals across the country,” Mendenhall said.
And while the medical establishment remains split on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 injections, some “medical people are concerned about clotting and other issues that occur with the vaccinated.”
“Especially if you’ve got liver and kidney problems and need that type of transfer, you don’t want to be vaccinated before the transplant. That’s my understanding,” Mendenhall said.
A ‘Fiduciary Responsibility’ to Patients
Often, the unvaccinated transplant patient has maintained a longstanding medical relationship with the hospital or clinic without issue before the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts.
For this reason, Mendenhall believes there is a “fiduciary relationship that the hospitals engage in with a transplant patient.” To break that obligation would be “a real breach of that fiduciary responsibility to them.”
According to the Chronic Disease Research Group, an estimated 37 million people in the United States have kidney disease in varying stages.
About 1 million Americans are in the end stages of the disease. At the same time, 550,000 undergo kidney dialysis to remove excess toxins from the blood because their kidneys cannot perform this function.
The average wait time for a kidney transplant in the United States is three to five years at most health facilities, but it’s longer in some parts of the country, according to kidney.org.
“It is best to explore transplant before you need to start dialysis. This way, you might be able to get a transplant ‘preemptively,’ before you need dialysis,” the organization’s website states.
“It takes time to find the right transplant center for you, to complete the transplant evaluation, to get on the transplant waitlist for a deceased donor, or to find a living kidney donor if you can.”
Garinger said she is in terminal Stage 5 of her kidney disease and needs dialysis almost every other day to stay alive.
“I’m pissed off,” said Garinger, who gets short of breath just walking to the kitchen.
“I can’t walk to Costco or a grocery store now. My muscles—I get out of wind so easily. I can’t walk down to my chickens anymore.”
Her daughter Emily Lewis, 35, is a recent medical assistant program graduate and is now her mother’s live-in caretaker as she waits for a kidney transplant.
“I put my life on hold because [of my mother],” Lewis said, although she has no regrets.
With her career in limbo, Lewis said she is angry at the injustice of the COVID-19 mandates while doubting the shots even work.
“Everyone I know who’s COVID vaccinated has had it four or five times. I’ve had it zero,” Lewis told The Epoch Times.
Denied access to the kidney wait list at Sharp Memorial, Garinger found that the University of California San Diego Medical Center was willing to perform the kidney transplant surgery.
But the longer it takes to find a kidney donor, the more likely it is that she won’t make it back to a more normal life.
She characterized her relationship with her doctors at Sharp Memorial as adversarial since she opposed taking the COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.
She remembered one doctor in Ramona who kept “pressuring me” about the vaccine.
He said, “What will you do if you get COVID? What if you catch COVID and you have to go to the hospital?’
“Well,” she told him. “I have this protocol on my fridge—vitamins C and D. I have ivermectin. Number one: I won’t go to the hospital. It’s a death sentence there.”
“I guess you know more than me,'” the doctor said as he stood up and left the room.
“I didn’t know I had an adversary” or that “I was an evil person. I just had a gut feeling they would deny me [a kidney] because they kept pressuring me about the shot.”
“They did the same thing with me,” Emily said.
‘Why Aren’t You Vaccinated?’
At one point, Garinger demanded data showing the vaccine’s side effects.
“There was none,” she said. “It came down to the last final interview with the surgeon. All he could ask me was, ‘Why aren’t you vaccinated? Why don’t you want to get vaccinated?'”
“I don’t have COVID,” Garinger said. “[Emily] doesn’t have COVID. Another thing they told me was we were a [donor] match. And then I got to UCSD, and the bloodwork showed she was not a match.”
Sharp Memorial did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times. UCSD Medical Center did not return an email seeking comment.
New Orleans attorney David Dalia said Garinger’s case seems to be medical “discrimination.”
“They are discriminating against her based on her vaccination status,” he said.
During the pandemic, Dalia worked on vaccine mandate cases with Frontline doctors, filing amicus briefs on behalf of 1.5 million federal employees who refused to take a COVID-19 vaccine by order of President Joe Biden.
“The truth is [Garinger] has a lot better chance of living than a vaccinated person. We can back that up. They’re viewing it as sort of a disability.
“Well, that’s a violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act. And federal law specifically says all experimental use authorization drugs are strictly voluntary and subject to informed consent.”
Dalia said informed consent is “never coerced.”
As Garinger works through the intake process at UCSD Medical Center, she has good, bad, and “hell” days.
“I sit in a chair all day,” said Garinger, who ran a successful foreclosure business before she retired due to her illness. “[Emily] helps me do cooking. She does all the chopping and stuff. I have a chair in the kitchen. I walk to the kitchen and start cooking. I don’t do much. My gardening is on hold—everything is on hold. My muscles are gone. I use electric carts to go to Costco. I can’t do anything. I’m out of breath. It sucks.”
“Every part of my body is deteriorating. So, I’m on hold until I get a kidney.”
Just as painful are the times people call her “evil ” because she refuses to take an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19.
“You’re going to give [COVID] to everybody,” they tell her. “You’re evil for not getting vaccinated.”
“That’s how I felt,” Garinger told The Epoch Times.
She said another fear is receiving a kidney from a vaccinated donor, with unknown health effects, since there is no way to determine which donor is vaccinated and which one is not.
Feeling her time is growing short, Garinger said she is still determined to keep fighting in the time she has left.
“I’ve got to get this done. Every day there’s something else going wrong with me because my kidneys are gone,” Garinger said.
“I Couldn’t Remain Silent”: Physician Assistant Fired For Reporting COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events To VAERS
"I Couldn’t Remain Silent": Physician Assistant Fired For Reporting COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events To VAERS
Authored by Matt McGregor via…
Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
For her efforts to report injuries to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) and to educate others in her hospital system on doing the same, Physician Assistant Deborah Conrad said she was labeled an anti-vaxxer and fired from her job.
Today, the New York-based Conrad tells her story at medical freedom conferences throughout the country, the most recent being one in Mississippi where physicians, scientists, and the vaccine injured warned state lawmakers to pull the COVID-19 vaccines from the market.
Conrad told The Epoch Times she began to see early danger signals in 2021 upon the vaccine rollout, and with that, resistance among her colleagues to report on them.
“After the vaccines came out, there was this uptick in unusual symptoms, some of which I had never seen in my 20-year career,” Conrad said. “In every case, it was in somebody who had received the COVID-19 vaccine.”
Conrad said she had never admitted an adult patient with RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) until the COVID-19 vaccines.
“And every patient who came in with RSV was vaccinated for COVID,” Conrad said. “It wasn’t normal.”
Then, there were the adolescents with no previous medical conditions who had gotten the COVID-19 vaccine a week prior and, suddenly, they were struck with pneumonia and not able to function, she said.
“They weren’t able to walk or eat, and they were completely and totally fatigued,” Conrad said.
This was in 2021 before myocarditis was being discussed, so many of those early cases that were probably myocarditis were diagnosed as pneumonia, she said.
“A lot of these myocarditis cases came in with fevers because of this massive inflammatory response that was taking place in the body, so they would be labeled as septic, treated as if we were treating pneumonia or fevers of unknown origin,” Conrad said. “We’d treat them with antibiotics and all sorts of other things, not realizing that they were having heart failure.”
Conrad began reporting to VAERS, which she said was an overwhelming task not made easy by its multiple user-interface complications.
“My entire life had been taken over by doing these VAERS reports by myself,” she said.
In meetings with leadership, she would propose implementing a reporting system and hiring someone to manage the reports, she said.
‘A Hostile Environment’
“They kept telling me we’re looking into it and we’ll get back to you,” Conrad said. “Around April 2021, leadership came back and said no one else is reporting injuries—implying that I was crazy and there was nothing really going on with the vaccines.”
Leadership then audited her reports, she said and concluded that she was overreporting.
“I was then told that by doing VAERS reports and even discussing VAERS that it was an admission that the vaccines were unsafe, so it’s contributing to vaccine hesitancy,” Conrad said.
From there, it became a “very hostile environment” that compelled her to seek legal counsel, who wrote letters to the Department of Health, the CDC, and the FDA.
“No one cared,” Conrad said. “Finally, I had had it. It was so unethical; I couldn’t take it anymore. These VAERS reports are critical to assuring these vaccines are safe for us all. I could no longer be a part of a system that is lying to the American people.”
Conrad decided to become a whistleblower, telling her story on Del Bigtree’s The Highwire, knowing, she said, that it would cost her job.
“I couldn’t remain silent, even if it meant losing my career and everything I worked for,” she said. “I was fired a few weeks later and walked out like a criminal in front of all my peers.”
The initiative and education she had brought forth to report to VAERS were squashed that day, she said.
National Vaccine Injury Act of 1986
According to Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), under the National Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, it’s a federal requirement for health care workers to report vaccine-related adverse events to VAERS.
Fisher, whose son was harmed by the DTP vaccine in 1980, worked with other parents of vaccine-injured children in establishing the NVIC in 1982.
“The 1986 Act was driven by parents of DPT vaccine injured children asking the government to pass legislation to secure vaccine safety informing, recording, reporting, and research provisions in the vaccination system to make it safer, and to create a federal compensation system alternative to a lawsuit against manufacturers of vaccines that injure or kill children,” Fisher told The Epoch Times.
In addition to NVIC arguing that physicians and vaccine manufacturers should be giving informed consent and report injuries, the organization maintained they should also continue to be held accountable in a civil court to serve as an incentive for physicians to administer vaccines responsibly, for manufacturers to produce safer vaccines, and for adequate federal compensation to vaccine-injured children.
Read more here...
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