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Futures Hit New All Time High As Manic Melt Up Won’t Stop

Futures Hit New All Time High As Manic Melt Up Won’t Stop

Tyler Durden

Wed, 12/09/2020 – 08:04

The market meltup just won’t let up, with futures and global stocks reaching new record highs on Wednesday as sentiment was stoked after.

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Futures Hit New All Time High As Manic Melt Up Won't Stop Tyler Durden Wed, 12/09/2020 - 08:04

The market meltup just won't let up, with futures and global stocks reaching new record highs on Wednesday as sentiment was stoked after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin unveiled a surprise $916 billion pandemic-relief package proposal (which was quickly slammed by Pelosi and Schumer) coupled with now daily positive news on COVID-19 vaccines, overshadowing fears about resurgent coronavirus cases while sterling made gains as British and European leaders meet for talks on a Brexit trade deal. Treasuries dropped as did the dollar, while the Chinese yuan surged above 6.50 for the first time in 2 years.

MSCI’s index of world stocks rose to a record 635.65, up 0.23%. The index has been on a roll for weeks, gaining 15% since the beginning of last month. Global equities were "energized" after the White House’s surprise re-entry into pandemic-relief talks with a $916 billion proposal late on Tuesday that opened a potential new path to a year-end deal.

As of 7:30am Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.28%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.14% to a new all time high, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 15 points, or 0.08%. U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as well as industrial bellwethers Boeing and 3M rose about half a percent. Car-battery producer QuantumScape surges 27% in premarket trading, adding to a 31% jump on Tuesday.

Travel stocks including United Airlines and American Airlines Group Inc gained 1.3% and 2.7% amid new covid hopes: the race for a vaccine narrowed on Tuesday after the FDA raised no new issues about the safety or efficacy of Pfizer's candidate, while Johnson & Johnson reported it could obtain late-stage trial results for a single-dose vaccine earlier than expected. Both drugmakers’ shares gained about 1% in early trading, as did Moderna.  Joe Biden also vowed that his administration would vaccinate 100 million Americans during his first 100 days in office, push to reopen schools and strengthen mask mandates.

"Momentum will be a little bit less than it has been. There are certain questions to be answered about the logistics of the vaccines, and vaccines don’t change the winter picture for the virus, but we are expecting positive returns for next year ... there’s a lot going for the global economy,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors.

Separately, Congress continued to negotiate on a long-awaited coronavirus relief package, but provisions on liability protections for businesses and aid to state and local governments are causing divisions between Republicans and Democrats. Late on Tuesday, the Trump administration proposed a new $916 billion aid package on Tuesday, after congressional Democrats shot down a suggestion for a pared-down plan.

As Bloomberg notes, with little time left before the year-end holiday break and no let-up in Covid-19 cases in some of the biggest economies, investors are clinging to prospects for an 11th-hour stimulus deal and more progress on vaccine roll-outs. Emergency-use authorization for Pizer’s shot in the biggest economy may come as early as Thursday.

The opportunities are "in equities and credit, so we are overweight, we are risk on,” Richard Lacaille, global chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors, said on Bloomberg TV. "We know that we will be tested again next year in terms of Covid and elsewhere."

In Europe, equities reached their highest level since February but traded slightly off best levels, fading an early DAX-led rally, with the Stoxx 600 trading 0.5% higher as pro-cyclical mining and chemical firms led gains, and travel, autos and insurance companies also outperformed. The German DAX index gained 0.9% and Britain’s FTSE 100, which has been hardest hit of the main global indexes this year, added 0.36%. However, Britain injected a note of caution into the vaccine euphoria, saying people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely to the Pfizer vaccine.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 0.6%, touching a record high. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.3% to approach a 29 1/2-year high. South Korean stocks also jumped by 1.6% to trade near a record high after falling on Tuesday. Shares in China bucked the trend and fell 0.7% on profit taking. SoftBank shares rose almost 6% in Tokyo after Bloomberg reported it’s debating a new strategy to go private (now that the Nasdaq Whale is a distant memory). And machinery orders in Japan jumped at the fastest pace in more than a decade, adding to signs that the global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic.

In rates, Treasuries retreated and curves steepened as hopes for a U.S. stimulus deal dented demand for havens. Treasury 10-year yields at ~0.94% were 2.2bps higher on day, vs 2.6bp increase for U.K. 10-year, 1.2bp for German bunds. Portugal’s 10-year bond yield, which fell this week to a record low of -0.01%, was trading at zero. "That caps off a remarkable journey from the height of the sovereign debt crisis, when in early 2012 (the yield) was trading above 18% intraday,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. Spain’s 10-year yields could be next to go sub-zero.

Crude futures give back early gains. WTI reverses a move up to $46.24 to trade little changed; Brent fades a similar move to trade near $48.90. Spot gold holds a narrow range near $1,860/oz. Base metals trade in the green with LME aluminum and zinc outperforming.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell, erasing a two-day advance, and the greenback weakened against all Group-of-10 peers amid an advance led by risk-sensitive currencies in the wake of the U.S. relief proposal. The euro advanced, ending a three-day decline, but stayed within recent trading ranges; bunds edged lower, yet outperformed Treasuries. The pound rallied above $1.34, boosted by a broadly weaker dollar, as traders positioned for a meeting between U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson heads to Brussels on Wednesday for a meeting over dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a push to avoid a turbulent breakup in three weeks. There was a glimmer of hope on Tuesday after Britain said it would drop clauses in draft domestic legislation that breach the already agreed Brexit divorce settlement, after reaching an “agreement in principle” with the EU over how to manage the Ireland-Northern Ireland border.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar pushed toward its strongest close in more than two years, catching the updraft from the highest consumer confidence reading in a decade and hawkish views on the central bank’s likely stance. China’s offshore yuan pared an advance after earlier breaching the key 6.5 per dollar level for the first time since 2018. HUF and PLN were the best EM FX performers, bolstered by positive news on EU stimulus.

In commodities, oil prices rallied as the positive vaccine news lifted investor hopes for a recovery in fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $48.99 a barrel. WTI futures gained 13 cents to $45.73. Spot gold fell 0.9% as the start of vaccine treatment reduced safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

On today's calendar, we get data on mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. There are also monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Central Bank of Brazil.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,711.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 395.35
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 195.03
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 646.21
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 26,817.94
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,779.42
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 26,502.84
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,371.96
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 46,107.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,728.47
  • Kospi up 2% to 2,755.47
  • Brent futures up 1.1% to $49.39/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,860.17
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 90.77
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to -0.6%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.2125
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.479%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.034%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Global central banks are embarking on fresh waves of bond-buying to fight the fallout from the pandemic, despite mounting claims that the once-mighty policy is losing its power to boost the economy
  • Poland and Hungary have agreed on a compromise with Germany to unblock the European Union’s $2.2 trillion budget and pandemic stimulus plan, a senior government official in Warsaw said
  • China’s state-backed coronavirus vaccine protected 86% of people against Covid-19 in trials conducted in the United Arab Emirates, state media there reported, giving credence to the quickly developed shot that China intends to distribute around the developing world
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Germans to make an additional sacrifice over the Christmas holidays to contain the coronavirus as daily coronavirus-related deaths rose the most since the outbreak began
  • About seven weeks before the inauguration, Biden’s picks for top administration slots are making clear that economic restrictions on countries will remain an essential tool, even if they don’t like everything about the way Trump used them
  •  
  • Norway’s mainland gross domestic product, which adjusts for Norway’s offshore industry, expanded 1.2% in October from the previous month, the Oslo-based statistics office said on Wednesday. That’s three times the bounce expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, strengthening the case for the central bank to be among the first to raise interest rates
  • While trial results published Tuesday in The Lancet found that a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc is safe and effective, more analysis will be needed to see how well it works in people over 55, among those at higher risk from the pandemic

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewSquawk

Asia-Pac bourses traded positively as the region took impetus from the record highs on Wall St with sentiment underpinned by ongoing vaccine optimism and amid stimulus hopes which were also spurred after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a USD 916bln coronavirus relief proposal, although key Democrats have since labelled it as unacceptable as it cuts unemployment insurance from the bipartisan proposal. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was led higher by outperformance in the healthcare sector amid firm gains in Healius following its performance update and share buyback announcement, with an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment contributing to the tailwinds. Nikkei 225 (+1.3%) was lifted after stronger than expected Machinery Orders which jumped 17.1% for the month of October and as exporters found reprieve from a pause in the recent currency appreciation, while SoftBank shares surged on reports that the Co. was said to be in discussions on going private through a slow burn buyout in which it could gradually repurchases shares until its founder can squeeze out other investors. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) were mixed with Hong Kong conforming to the overall upbeat mood, although the mainland lagged amid currency strength and ongoing tensions after China’s Vice Foreign Minister summoned the US embassy representative over US sanctions on Chinese officials and reiterated to take reciprocal countermeasures. The release of Chinese inflation data was also discouraging as CPI printed in negative territory at -0.5% and its lowest since 2009 which although was mostly due to a 2% drop in food inflation and in particular a 12.5% slump in pork prices, it still highlighted a weak consumer profile given that non-food CPI also contracted by 0.1%. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with the prior day’s upside losing steam amid gains in stocks and an overnight pullback in T-notes, with demand also sapped by the lack of BoJ presence in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • UAE Says Sinopharm Vaccine Has 86% Efficacy Against Covid-19
  • First Electric Air Taxis Set to Fly in Singapore by 2023
  • Indonesia Virus Deaths at Record High on Local Election Day
  • Stocks Push Higher Amid U.S. Stimulus Wrangling: Markets Wrap
  • Central Banks Step Up $5.6 Trillion Bond Binge Despite Doubts

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.5%) are on the front-foot following on from an upbeat Asia-Pac handover and further record highs on Wall St. Sentiment has been underpinned by ongoing vaccine optimism and stimulus hopes with the latter spurred after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a USD 916bln coronavirus relief proposal which included money for state and local governments, as well as liability protections for businesses. The proposal was later deemed as unacceptable by House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer as it cut unemployment insurance, however, they noted that Senate Majority Leader McConnell agreeing to the White House proposal was progress. Closer to home in Europe, beyond the ongoing Brexit stalemate, attention is firmly fixated on tomorrow’s crunch ECB meeting in which policymakers have set the bar for a “dovish surprise” particularly high (a full preview of the event can be found in the Newsquawk research suite). From a sectoral standpoint all sectors, with the exception of IT names trade firmer with the tech sector hampered by losses in STMicroelectronics (-9%) after the Co. abandoned its EUR 1bln sales target by a year to 2023; Infineon (-0.5%) are seen lower in sympathy. In terms of broader follow-through to equities in the US, the tech-heavy e-mini Nasdaq is flat on the session, lagging the e-mini S&P and Russell 2000 which trade higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. To the upside, energy names are the clear outperformers, supported by modestly firmer crude prices with other cyclically exposed sectors such as autos and banks also near the top of the leaderboard. Corporate updates are once again on the light side with two standouts being German-listed Covestro (+4.6%) after upgrading its FY 20 EBITDA and FCF guidance, whilst Signify (-5.4%) are a noteworthy loser after announcing it expects the COVID-19 pandemic to impair sales by 13-13.5%.

Top European News

  • Deutsche Bank’s Loetscher Steps Aside Pending Wirecard Probe
  • U.K. Urged to Levy $350 Billion Wealth Tax to Pay for Pandemic
  • French Retailer Casino Unveils Debt Plan to Bolster Finances
  • UniCredit May Consider Deal With BPER Under a New CEO, Sole Says
  • Norway GDP Surprise Shows Pandemic Grip Weaker Than Feared

In FX, all eyes on Sterling as PM Johnson gears up for a make-or-break evening meeting with EU’s von der Leyen (19:00GMT/14:00EST) in the run up to the European Council meeting tomorrow. In terms of the lie of the land, optimistic omens came out of the UK’s Cabinet Minister Gove in early hours intimating scope for compromise on fisheries, whilst Irish Deputy PM Varadkar expressed a similar tone but noted the LPF remains the most difficult outstanding issue. Nonetheless, Cable garnered impetus from the comments whereby the pair rose to a fresh session high at 1.3460 (vs. low 1.3350) surpassing Monday’s peak and the psychological 1.3450 mark. Subsequently, flows into Sterling translated into pressure on the EUR/GBP cross which dipped below 0.9050 from 0.9081 at best to a current base at 0.9035. As such, EUR/USD fails to fully benefit from the softer Buck but retains its 1.2100+ status having had risen to a whisker away from 1.2150 before it side-lined the wider-than-expected German trade data for October.

  • DXY, Yuan - The broad Dollar and Index kicked off the mid-week session on the back foot, with some downside pressure seen in light of the Sterling bounce, but with attention remaining on State-side negotiations over government funding and the COVID relief bill. DXY remains sub-91.000 after printing an overnight base around 90.700 with the next immediate downside level comprising of Monday’s 90.612 low followed by the psychological 90.500 mark. Elsewhere, the strengthening Yuan garnered focus overnight whereby the offshore hit the firmest level against the Buck since June 2018 despite a relatively stable PBoC fix and discouraging Chinese CPI figures. USD/CNH printed a base at 6.4975 with bears now eyeing the 76.4% retracement of the 2018 low to the 2019 high at 6.4626.
  • AUD, NZD, CAD - The high-beta non-US Dollars see gains across the board amid tailwinds from the positive risk sentiment coupled with follow-through from the firmer Yuan. Sources overnight suggested Chinese trade officials are unlikely to reassess their bilateral free-trade agreement with Australia this month as outlined in the ChAfta deal. The news has seen varying interpretations, with one suggestion being the deal signed with goodwill remains intact despite the ever-deteriorating ties between the countries, whilst others suggests this takes away a platform for negotiations to improve ties. Nonetheless, the Aussie outpaces its peers vs. the USD following a breach of 0.7450 to the upside from its overnight low of ~0.7400 to a current peak at 0.7471 with the next level to the upside around 0.7486 marking the highs set on the 9th and 10th July 2018. NZD/USD meanwhile continues to gain ground above 0.7050 (vs. low 0.7036). The Loonie is also supported as USD/CAD remains sub-1.2800 (vs. high 1.2822) but remains cautious in the run up to the BoC policy announcement (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite).
  • JPY - Contrary to its G10 peers, the Yen fails to glean support from the softer Dollar as haven outflows hamper gains. USD/JPY remains contained within a tight 104.07-25 band in early European trade with OpEx seeing USD 704mln rolling off between 104.40-50 and USD 750mln at strike 104.65.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have erased overnight losses as the complex piggy-backed on the positive risk tone in broader trade with gains of some USD 0.40/bbl apiece. Losses overnight stemmed from the private sector inventory report which showed a surprise build in headline crude and larger than expected build to gasoline stockpiles at 6.4mln (exp. 2.3mln), whilst the EIA STEO also cut its world oil demand growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021, with the OPEC and IEA's respective monthly reports due next week. Notwithstanding yesterday's bearish supply/demand side updates, WTI Jan hovered around USD 46/bbl (vs. low 45.33/bbl) before losing ground below the figure whilst Brent Feb sees itself just south of USD 49/bbl (vs. low 48.54/bbl). Looking ahead, the weekly DoE inventory figures will be released at the usual time, with headline crude stocks expected to see a draw of 1.424mln bbls. Elsewhere, precious metals are relatively uneventful and lacklustre with the former still north of USD 1850/oz, but off its overnight high of 1871/oz, whilst spot silver sees itself under USD 24.50/oz (vs high 24.58/oz). In terms of forecast, Commerzbank anticipates gold will approach USD 2100/oz by end-2021 whilst the German bank sees silver at USD 28/oz in the same timeframe. In terms of base metals, iron ore prices hit the highest level since March 2013 amid firm demand from steel plants coupled with woes surrounding the deteriorating Aussie-Sino relationship, prompting China's Dalian Commodity Exchange to limit non-future members' single day open position for iron ore futures for May 21 delivery to 5k lots from Dec 14th. Finally, LME copper is firmer on the day as the red metal sees tailwinds from the softer Buck and constructive risk tone.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications -1.2%, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,300, prior 6,436

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was a landmark day as the first non-trial Covid vaccine was administered to the Developed World population. This happened here in the U.K. to a 91 year old lady called Margaret Keenan. However the first man to be vaccinated was William Shakespeare which is taking prioritising the elderly to new heights as according to Wikipedia he is now 456 years old. On a serious note his name sake was 81 years old and his family suggests they may have been related to the famous playwright. Good publicity for the vaccine.

Anyway to be vaccinated or not to be vaccinated, that is the question. This brings us nicely onto our monthly survey which we launch today and will keep open until this Friday December 11th at 11AM BST. You can fill it in here. The bulk of this month’s survey is covering your views on vaccines, Covid-19 and the impact it’s having on your life and the world around you – including several new questions along with selected ones from prior months to enable us to see trends. We also have a few market-related questions and have added a few 2021-specific questions as well as a fun Christmas one at the end. All help greatly appreciated as ever.

Moving onto markets and risk assets recovered steadily all day yesterday and hit a fresh record high in the US at the close after a tougher early session. The grind higher in equities can be partially attributed to legislative headway on fiscal stimulus in the US as well as news that the UK government dropped controversial parts of the Internal Market Bill. The S&P 500 rose +0.28% even if there was continued rotation under the surface, though not necessarily led by cyclicals. The odd pairing of Energy (+1.57%) and Biotech (+1.26%) helping lead the broad index higher, while Autos (-0.44%) and Consumer Durables (-0.65%) were among the worst performers. Europe rose a similar +0.20%, though the threat of renewed or elongated lockdowns saw a return of cyclical caution. Travel & Leisure (-1.00%), Retail (-0.69%) and Banks (-0.63%) were the worst three sectors, while Personal Care Drug Stores (+1.19%) and Media (+0.96%) were the best.

As noted above, US stimulus talks took a more positive turn with Senate Majority Leader McConnell suggesting that the two parties set aside their top priority demands – State and Local aid for Democrats and business liability protections for Republicans – in order to reach deal to “pass those things that we can agree on knowing full well we’ll be back at this after the first of the year.” He went on to acknowledge that “the new administration is going to be asking for another package.” This may not be suitable for Democrats, as Senate Minority Leader Schumer said that the state and local aid funds were necessary for “thousands of workers, including police and firefighters.” However the conciliatory tone was welcomed by markets, which reached intraday highs shortly after McConnell’s comments. After the market closed, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a new $916 billion bill to Speaker Pelosi, which was the first salvo from the Trump Administration since just before the election. “This proposal includes money for state and local governments and robust liability protections for businesses, schools and universities,” Mnuchin said. It was a joint proposal from the White House, the House minority leader McCarthy and McConnell, and though Pelosi and Schumer put out a statement saying the deal was “progress” they wanted to keep working on the bipartisan framework already making its way through Congress. They also said that “The President’s proposal starts by cutting the unemployment insurance proposal being discussed by bipartisan Members of the House and Senate from $180 billion to $40 billion. That is unacceptable”

US 10yr Treasuries yields fluctuated with the stimulus news and were down 3bps shortly after the New York open before ending nearly unchanged (-0.5bps) at 0.918%. They are a further 2bps higher overnight. European sovereign bond markets earlier rallied strongly as the focus turns to tomorrow’s ECB meeting, where it’s anticipated there’ll be a further easing of the monetary policy stance. 10yr bunds fell -2.5bps to -0.607% while gilts fell -2.6bps to 0.26%. A whole array of new records were set, with perhaps the most notable being that Portugal’s 10-year yield closed in negative territory for the first time, at -0.006%. That caps off a remarkable journey from the height of the sovereign debt crisis, when in early 2012 it was trading above 18% intraday. Given the moves yesterday, Spain might be next to join the negative rates club, with its own 10-year yield falling to an all-time low of 0.029%, as Italy’s similarly fell to an all-time low of 0.590%.

On the vaccine, we now have the publication of detailed trial results for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which confirm the original findings that giving patients an initial half dose and then a full dose was the more effective method, with an efficacy rate of 90%. Though it’ll require further analysis to see how it affects the elderly, that was because older adults were brought into the studies later so there’s been less time to study those age groups. In the US, the FDA published a report indicating that the Pfizer vaccine is highly effective in preventing Covid-19 and that there are no safety concerns that would prevent it from being granted an emergency-use authorization. This comes ahead of the meeting on Thursday of outside advisers to the agency, after which the FDA can clear the vaccine for immediate use.

Overnight in Asia, markets have largely taken Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.00%), Hang Seng (+1.06%), Kospi (+1.54%) and Asx (+0.61%) all advancing. Chinese bourses are trading a bit more mixed with the Shanghai Comp (+0.06%) up while the CSI (-0.12%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.53%) are down. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up +0.23% while the US dollar index is down -0.16% and yields on 10y USTs are up +2bps to 0.940%. In commodities, spot gold prices are down -0.55% to $1860.31/oz. In terms of data this morning, China’s November CPI fell -0.5% yoy (vs. 0% yoy expected) , making this the first contraction since October 2009 while PPI came in at -1.5% yoy (vs. -1.8% yoy expected). Elsewhere, Japan’s October core machine orders printed at +17.1% mom (vs. +2.5% mom expected), marking a record gain with comparable data going back to 2005. Its worth nothing that the data series is quite volatile though.

Turning to the latest on the virus, it is continuing to spread at an accelerated pace in the US as the country reported 218,310 cases in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile in Europe, Switzerland has said overnight that it will reduce opening hours for shops and restaurants from December 12 to January 20 and has indicated that measures could be tightened further on December 18, when restaurants and shops might be asked to shut altogether, if caseloads don’t come down. France’s Health Minister Veran has also said that the country could introduce a new curfew or stick to the current lockdown for some additional days as the number of virus cases continues to remain high. This comes ahead of further scheduled easing of restrictions on December 15 and the French government is supposed to discuss the situation today with an announcement due before end of the week. For more on the virus spread see the table below.

In terms of the latest on Brexit, UK Prime Minister Johnson and European Commission President von der Leyen will be meeting in Brussels tonight. Not much new has happened in public over the last 24 hours. We did see a report from Sky News’ Europe correspondent that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier had told ministers yesterday morning that the chances of a deal were “very slim”. This continued nervousness has seen market jitters continue, with sterling weakening by a further -0.19% against the US dollar in its 3rd consecutive move lower, while 1-week sterling/dollar implied volatility rose to its highest level since March.

We did get a positive development yesterday as it was announced that an agreement in principle had been reached on a number of issues relating to the application of the already-reached Withdrawal Agreement, including on arrangements for Northern Ireland. As a result of this, the UK government announced that they’d be withdrawing the contentious provisions from their Internal Market Bill that would have enabled them to break international law. Though this doesn’t resolve the main issues in the trade talks, this does remove a stumbling block from the talks that led to major unease on the EU side.

Staying on EU politics, we got reports yesterday saying that hope for a deal with Hungary and Poland was increasing over their budget standoff, which could see the EU clarify how its rule-of-law mechanism would work. As a reminder, the two countries have vetoed the EU’s long-term budget and recovery fund over the fact that other member states wanted there to be conditions requiring EU countries to adhere to certain rule-of-law requirements in order for funds to be disbursed. However, these have been seen by both Poland and Hungary as unacceptable infringements on their national sovereignty, and in turn there have been threats to remove both countries from the recovery fund altogether if they didn’t lift their vetoes.

In Germany, the ZEW survey showed the expectations reading rising to a stronger-than-expected 55.0 (vs. 46.0 expected), up from the previous 39.0 reading in November. The current situation reading actually fell slightly however, down to -66.5 (vs -66.0 expected). Separately, the Euro Area’s GDP reading for Q3 was revised down slightly to show growth of +12.5% quarter-on-quarter (vs. flash +12.6%). And over in the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index fell to 101.4 (vs. 102.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October, as well as the German trade balance for that month. There are also monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Central Bank of Brazil.

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

Published

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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