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Futures Hit All Time High, Oil Soars Ahead Of Jobs Report

Futures Hit All Time High, Oil Soars Ahead Of Jobs Report

With overnight US equity futures rising for a 5th straight day, tracking global markets, the Emini climbed to a new all time high as investors parsed through a flurry of corporate…

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Futures Hit All Time High, Oil Soars Ahead Of Jobs Report

With overnight US equity futures rising for a 5th straight day, tracking global markets, the Emini climbed to a new all time high as investors parsed through a flurry of corporate results amid signs the U.S. labor market may be gradually improving, while covid news continued to improve.

At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 146 points, or 0.51%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 51.25 points, or 0.39% and S&P 500 E-minis were up 18.75 points, or 0.49%. Some notable moves:

  • Pinterest jumped 11% after the image-sharing company reported better-than-expected quarterly results, benefiting from strong user growth and heavy advertising by e-commerce retailers during the holiday season.
  • Johnson & Johnson rose 2.2% after the drugmaker said it had asked U.S. health regulators to authorize its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, and it would apply to European authorities in coming weeks.
  • Snapchat dropped about 7% after it warned that upcoming privacy changes by Apple could hurt its ad business.
  • GameStop shares were up 8% at $58 after Robinhood eased all trading restrictions.

Europe's STOXX 600 index was up 0.3% at 410.8, as strong earnings results spurred gains in stocks including Vinci SA, the region’s largest construction company, and drugmaker Sanofi SA. One sign of the rally’s durability: the benchmark Stoxx 600 has risen for five straight days, the longest stretch in a month though slower vaccination rollouts in continental Europe and disappointing industrial data from Germany tempered optimism.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares outside Japan rose 0.4% while Japan’s Nikkei rallied 1.5%. Asian stocks rose with the regional benchmark posting its biggest weekly gain since early November, after economic optimism and improving coronavirus trends saw U.S. shares reach record highs. Equity benchmarks in the Philippines and Japan led the broad rally, helping the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rise for a fourth day this week. Philippine stocks advanced, erasing an earlier loss, as the central bank said inflation will settle within its target after data showed consumer price gains in January reached the fastest pace in two years. Japanese automakers climbed following a Nikkei report that Apple is in talks with several manufacturers as potential EV partners and strong earnings from Mazda Motor. The company’s stock surged 19%, the most in 12 years. Hong Kong shares were also strong, as short-video service provider Kuaishou Technology nearly tripled in its trading debut following the world’s biggest internet IPO since Uber’s U.S. share sale in May 2019

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set to wrap up their best week since the Nov 3 election as upbeat earnings and economic data boosted optimism about a speedy recovery while a retail trading frenzy appeared to fade following a bout of market volatility last week. With Thursday data showing US jobless claims fell last week to the lowest level since the end of November, investors will be closely watching today's January payrolls report which as we previewed earlier, could hammer risk assets if it comes in too hot (over 200K), as that would spark fears of roaring reflation and remove the urgency for Biden to pass his stimulus. The BLS data is likely to show U.S. economy added 105,000 jobs in January after 140,000 jobs were lost in December, as pandemic-led restrictions eased. The data is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET (see our full preview here).

Moves in the U.S. stock market indicate “the business cycle has entered an early stage of recovery,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, a market strategist at Mizuho Securities. Stocks with cheap valuations are likely to be bought, with expectations for an economic normalization getting a lift thanks to improving economic data and progress in vaccinations, he said.

“The economic data is coming in very strong,” Andrew Slimmon, fund manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “The market is going to struggle at some point this year, but at the moment it’s too early because the numbers are still coming through.”

On the political front, President Biden’s drive to enact a $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill gained momentum early on Friday as the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget plan allowing the passage of the legislation in coming weeks with or without Republican support. The House had already adopted its budget resolution but will likely have to vote again Friday to agree on the Senate’s language. Once that’s done, Democrats will be able to craft a relief bill in the coming weeks that can pass without any Republican votes under special budget rules.

“Following from a positive U.S. trading session on Thursday supported by decent earnings numbers, it looks as though Democrats will go on their own on stimulus and not try to compromise with Republicans, so you might get something closer to the $1.9 trillion rather than a compromise,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec in London.

In FX, the dollar headed for its best weekly gain in three months, confounding dollar bears and tracing a trading pattern known as the “Dollar Smile”, which in previous years has preceded major U.S. economic rebounds and currency surges. However, on Friday the dollar slipped ahead of a U.S. jobs report, falling against most of its Group-of-10 peers, while Treasuries edged lower. Most major currency pairs traded in a narrow range, with the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone gaining the most against the greenback.

“It seems markets are now trying to trade on economic normalisation based on progress in vaccination,” said Arihiro Nagata, general manager of global investment at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank. “The fact that the only currencies that are doing better than the dollar over the past two days are the British pound and the Israeli shekel, the two countries that are going further ahead in vaccination, seems to support that.”

The Norwegian krone led an advance in G-10 as Brent oil rose toward $60 a barrel on expectations OPEC+ is committed to restraining global supplies even as the demand outlook improves. The pound rose a second day after the Bank of England said on Thursday it isn’t close to introducing negative interest rates; gilts edged lower. The Australian dollar advanced in European session after the earlier slipping amid a weaker yuan fixing, and as central bank chief Philip Lowe said interest rates will remain low for “quite a while yet”.

“The market is concentrating on position adjustment as investors want to look at U.S jobs data to see whether or not the dollar’s uptrend is clearly in place and will continue,” said Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd.

In rates, longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose in anticipation of the large pandemic relief bill from Washington as well as on rising inflation expectations. The benchmark 10-year yield stood at 1.165%, a fresh three-week high as Treasury futures traded near session lows, extending a weekly slide, amid steeper losses for gilts and gain for S&P 500 futures. The 10-year yield rebounded to ~1.16% from session low 1.127% reached during Asia hours, is more than 9bp higher on the week; 10-year gilts lag Treasuries by an additional ~3bp following Thursday’s BOE policy decision while bunds keep pace. Bond yields rose in Europe as well, with Germany’s 30-year government bond yield climbing back into positive territory for the first time since September.

In commodities, oil hit its highest level in a year, above $59 a barrel, supported by hopes of a quicker economic revival and supply curbs by OPEC and its allies. Brent crude was up 63 cents, or 1.1%, at $59.47 by 1200 GMT after hitting its highest since Feb. 20 last year at $59.75. U.S. crude was up 54 cents, or 1%, at $56.77, after reaching $57.09, its highest since Jan. 22 last year.

“The conditions still remain supportive for oil markets,” said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA. “Oil should find plenty of willing buyers on any material dip.”

In commodities, Brent was on track to rise more than 6% this week. The last time it traded at $60, the pandemic had yet to take hold, economies were open and people were free to travel, meaning demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel was much higher. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, however, is fuelling hopes of lockdowns being eased, boosting fuel demand. But even demand optimists such as OPEC do not expect oil consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022. Further boosting the market, a weekly supply report showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories to their lowest since March, suggesting that output cuts by OPEC+ producers are having the desired effect. Gold edged up 0.7% to over $1,805 per ounce, but was still set for its worst weekly dip in four after hitting a two-month low of $1,785.10 on Thursday.

Friday’s earnings highlights include chemicals giant Linde, makeup firm Estee Lauder and biotech Regeneron. Nonfarm payrolls are also due, expected to show a sharp gain for January.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,878.25
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 212.64
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 716.31
  • Nikkei up 1.5% to 28,779.19
  • Topix up 1.4% to 1,890.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,288.68
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,496.33
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 50,746.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 6,840.53
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 3,120.63
  • Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.4%
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to -0.462%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1982
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $59.63/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,806.22
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.16% to 91.38

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Senate voted 51-50 to adopt a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion virus relief package -- following nearly 15 hours of wading through amendments from both parties
  • It will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace before reaching 75% coverage with a two-dose vaccine, a Bloomberg database of Covid-19 shots suggests
  • The dollar’s turnaround is shaking up a consensus on Wall Street that a strengthening recovery would weigh on havens such as the dollar. The opposite appears to be happening, as the prospect of more- generous U.S. government spending and rising Treasury yields have spurred the currency
  • It didn’t take much from the Bank of England for U.K. investors to price out the specter of negative interest rates. Now, their attention is turning just as fast to whether it might wean the nation’s bond market off life- support
  • The U.K. will require travelers from coronavirus hot spots to quarantine starting Feb. 15, the government said, adding flesh to a policy first announced last month
  • A return of the reflation trade is seen pushing the U.S. yield curve higher, though swap markets may be what’s driving the latest extension. Hedging activity in interest rates -- from insurance companies contending with record stock gains and investors who were short volatility -- may be fueling the climb in longer-dated bond yields

A look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stock markets traded higher as regional bourses took their cues from the fresh all-time highs on Wall St where focus remained on earnings releases and stimulus hopes, with risk appetite stateside also stoked by encouraging data. ASX 200 (+1.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) gained from the open with the broad constructive mood spurring outperformance among cyclicals in Australia and after the RBA reiterated its supportive tone, as well as upgraded its 2020 GDP forecast to -2.0% from -4.5%, while sentiment in Tokyo was underpinned after better-than-expected Household Spending data which showed surprise growth of 0.9% (exp. -1.9%) and as earnings updates also provided a catalyst with SoftBank Corp lifted after it raised FY net guidance. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) benefitted from the rising tide across stocks but with upside capped by a continued tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC which remained net neutral in today’s open market operations. Nonetheless, Kuaishou Technology stole the limelight on its Hong Kong debut as its shares surged to triple the IPO price which also benefitted its backer and index heavyweight Tencent Holdings, while CNOOC was buoyed after the Chinese oil giant posted a record preliminary production for last year. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued with demand sapped by the gains across stocks but with downside stemmed following a recent rebound in USTs and with the BoJ present in the market today for a total of JPY 640bln of bonds mostly concentrated in 5yr-25yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Cap Best Week in Three Months as Philippines Rallies
  • SoftBank May See Record Vision Fund Profit on Market Rebound
  • Tencent Music Said to Tap Banks for $5 Billion Hong Kong Listing
  • Kuaishou Surges 161% In Biggest Technology IPO Since Uber

Equities in Europe trade mostly higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%) as sentiment tilts towards risk-on ahead of the looming US jobs data. US equity futures meanwhile trade with broad-based gains across the ES (+0.4%), NQ (+0.3%), and YM (+0.4%), whilst the RTY (+0.7%) narrowly outperforms. In terms of the broader environment in the midst of earnings season, eyes remain on the rate of vaccinations alongside any vaccine resilience shown by emerging COVID-19 variants, whilst markets also eye policymakers for any hints of recalibration to fiscal or monetary packages as the recovery stage is underway – as US Senate adopted budget measures to fast-track the USD 1.9tln Biden stimulus plan, although the swift passage will depend on any opposition for Democrats. Back to Europe, the FTSE MIB (+1.5%) outperforms following reports that the PD Chief said the party will support a Draghi government and expects Draghi has an 80-90% chance of forming a government, whilst the SMI (-0.3%) continues to be weighed on by Nestle (-1.3%) following yesterday’s report of potential toxic metal levels in its baby food products. Sectors are mostly firmer with a cyclical bias. Travel & Leisure top the charts whilst JNJ submitted an application to US FDA for EUA of its single-shot Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, thus paving the way for another vaccine addition, and recent reports telegraphed the experimental mixing of vaccines in a bid to make distribution and inoculation more flexible. Oil & Gas also resides as a winner amid price action in the crude complex, meanwhile telecoms underperform after T-Mobile (-2.5%) underwhelmed markets post-earnings, in turn denting its largest shareholder Deutsche Telekom (-1%). In terms of large-cap earnings-related movers, BNP Paribas (+3.9%) is supported despite missing on revenue and FICC expectations as the board is to propose a dividend equivalent to 21% of 2020 net income, and is looking into share buybacks contingent on the ECB. Sanofi (+2%) is buoyed as earnings matched forecasts and the group confirmed its target regarding the expansion of business operating income margin.

Top European News

  • Report on Credit Suisse Banker’s Fraud Shows Years of Lapses
  • Sanofi Bolsters Cost-Cutting in Pursuit of More Blockbusters
  • BNP Paribas Warns Fixed Income to Slow After Uneven Results
  • Deutsche Bank Single-Handedly Revives Europe’s Floater Market

In FX, it could purely be a case of consolidation ahead of the monthly BLS update, but also a function of external factors and perhaps some technical impulses given the fact that the DXY failed to sustain upward momentum towards the next bullish chart target in the form of the 100 DMA (91.839 as of today) having eclipsed Thursday’s peak by a fraction at one stage (91.600 vs 91.581), and is now back below 91.500 nearer a 91.329 low. However, the US Treasury yield backdrop and curve profile is also a tad less supportive, oil remains on the boil and precious metals are trying to find a footing after their fall from grace, with Gold back on the Usd 1800/oz handle, albeit just and Silver straddling Usd 26.50/oz.

  • AUD/CAD/GBP - The Aussie is back on the 0.7600 handle with independent impetus from firmer than forecast retail sales data and a relatively upbeat RBA SOMP, albeit underlining the likelihood that ultra-accommodative policy will be maintained for the next 3 years at least, while the Loonie remains anchored around 1.2800 with one eye on crude prices and the other on the upcoming Canadian labour report. Elsewhere, Sterling is still elevated in wake of the BoE’s emphatic not now if at all NIRP message, with Cable probing 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp under 0.8750 even though the Euro is trying to claw back losses against the Buck and other peers. Note, little reaction to latest comments from BoE’s Broadbent – see 9.08GMT post on the headline feed for details – or weaker than expected Halifax house prices, as the Pound awaits more from Governor Bailey around the same time as NFP, but in cross terms 1.2 bn option expiries between 0.8760-70 could either cap rebounds or keep bears at bay.
  • CHF/EUR/NZD/JPY - Also firmer vs the Dollar or clawing back recent losses, as the Franc draws encouragement from hold just above 0.9050 again, the Euro recovers from a slightly deeper pullback from 1.2000 where 1.1 bn option expiry interest resides, the Kiwi bounces from under 0.7150 and Yen through 105.50 after hitting a sub-105.60 trough.
  • SCANDI/EM - Similar theme of Nok outperformance relative to the Sek, almost irrespective of Norwegian and Swedish fundamentals, like a decline in manufacturing output vs pronounced pick-up in Swedish new industrial orders, as the former continues to track oil in the main and latter run into resistance circa 10.1000 against the Eur. Conversely, the Try has breached 7.1000 vs the Usd following yet more hawkish statements from the CBRT as Governor Agbal pledges to take action before any rise in inflation beyond the forecast path, noting upside risks via January CPI and adding that policy will have a strong inflationary bias. All this in contrast to an unchanged RBI with guidance to maintain and accommodative stances as long as requited, and the PBoC staying neutral in terms of daily liquidity operations ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holidays, keeping the Inr and Cny/Cnh steady 72.9000 and 6.4700 respectively.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures trade on a firmer footing with gains of some USD 0.5-0.6/bbl seen across the benchmarks as WTI eyes USD 57/bbl to the upside (vs low USD 56.43/bbl) and Brent meanders on either side of USD 59.50/bbl (vs. low USD 50/bbl). The complex is seemingly garnering strength from the stock market performance, whilst also being underpinned on vaccine hopes and OPEC+ flexibility. Fresh catalysts have remained light during early European hours, with markets awaiting the Jan US jobs report for the next scheduled impetus. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade in positive territory in what seems like a breather from the recent volatility and losses seen in the complex, whilst a softer dollar helps keep prices afloat, with spot gold marginally north of USD 1800/oz after rebounding from yesterday’s USD 1784/oz low – and spot silver trades on either side of USD 26.50/oz after briefly dipping below USD 26/oz yesterday. In terms of base metals, LME copper is back on the rise and steadily making its way towards USD 7,500/t as the softer Dollar and risk-on tilt in the markets support the sentiment-influenced metal. Meanwhile, industrial metals overnight saw gains heading into the Chinese Lunar New Year, with Dalian iron ore futures ending the session over 4% higher as higher demand expectations after the Chinese New Year propped up prices.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 105,000, prior -140,000
  • 8:30am: Jan. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.1%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Unemployment Rate, est. 6.7%, prior 6.7%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Trade Balance, est. - $65.7b, prior -$68.1b
  • 3pm: Dec. Consumer Credit, est. $12b, prior $15.3b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Global risk assets advanced for a 4th day running yesterday, as positive sentiment among investors was supported by continued progress on the vaccine rollouts, hopes for further fiscal stimulus, as well as strong economic data. By the close, the S&P 500 had risen a further +1.09% to close at a fresh all-time high, in an advance that saw 387 companies in the index rise on the day. Small-caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 gaining +1.98% to reach a record high itself, and while the NASDAQ (+1.23%) similarly reached new highs, it was banks that saw the strongest performance on a sector basis. The S&P 500 Banks industry group was up a further +2.77%, as the Europe’s STOXX Banks index also rose +2.68%. Meanwhile the VIX index of volatility continued to fall from last week’s peak, down -1.1pts to 21.8pts, and European bourses shared in the rally, as the STOXX 600 (+0.56%), the DAX (+0.91%) and the CAC 40 (+0.82%) all moved higher. As an aside, GameStop fell -42.11%, while AMC pulled back -20.96%, as the deflation of this bubble continues. GameStop is now -89% lower than its intraday day highs, but is also remarkably still up roughly +200% YTD.

Yesterday I put out a CoTD comparing the run up of some tech stocks today with radio stocks of the 1920s. See here for more but the parallels are there. Both share common features like being in sectors that were/are likely long-term winners but at elevated and rapidly increasing valuations, both saw huge retail participation and were also helped by very loose monetary conditions. So is history repeating itself? Maybe with fresh stimulus cheques coming any potential bubbles could intensify further first.

On the topic of fresh stimulus, the US Senate started voting last night on a budget resolution for the 2021 fiscal year, following the House passing its version on Wednesday evening. This would allow President Biden’s Covid-19 relief package to pass with a simple party line vote. The topic of the minimum wage hike to $15/hr came up again yesterday, with the White House saying that President Biden “feels strongly” that it should go into effect. However it is unclear whether it would fit the rules of budget reconciliation. Regardless, Speaker Pelosi said that even if it does not make this bill, Democrats will try to rally support for it in the follow on recovery package that is expected later in the year.

Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+1.24%), Hang Seng (+0.55%), Shanghai Comp (+0.53%) and Kospi (+0.68%) all up. Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.20%.

So with reflation being the trade of the week and with equities climbing to new highs yesterday, some big moves actually came from selected sovereign bond markets, where a number of fresh milestones were reached on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, gilt yields jumped and sterling rose after the Bank of England struck a hawkish tone. Most notably, although the BoE signalled that negative rates “might become desirable at some point, they said they weren’t likely to happen anytime soon. The MPC stating that they would require at least six months preparation to get it operational thus meaning August was the earliest we could see it. By then we should be in full reopening mode.

Furthermore, though the BoE forecast that the economy would contract by around -4% in Q1, they projected that it would bounce back strongly after that, with CPI inflation above the BoE’s 2% target by Q1 2022. In response, gilts noticeably underperformed other sovereign bonds, with 10yr yields rising +6.9bps to 0.44%, their highest level since March, while sterling was the strongest G10 currency yesterday, with a +0.19% gain against the US dollar.

At the other end of the spectrum, the biggest outperformer yesterday were Italian BTPs once again, which reached a big milestone as the spread of their 10yr yields over bunds fell a further -5.1bps to 1.0%, falling beneath the 1% mark for the first time in over 5 years. The moves came as former ECB President Mario Draghi began consultations in order to form a new government, with a number of senior political figures sounding a conciliatory note towards the idea. The outgoing foreign minister and former Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio said that his party had a “duty” to hear Draghi, while former PM Silvio Berlusconi said that the decision to give Draghi a mandate to form a government “goes in the direction we’ve advocated for weeks”.

As well as the UK and Italy, there were some reasonably notable levels seen elsewhere, with yields on 10yr bunds up +1.0bps to -0.45%, a level not seen since back in September. Treasury moves were more subdued however, with 10yr yields around unchanged at +0.2bps to 1.139%, which came as the dollar strengthened +0.39% to a fresh 2-month high.

Later today, markets’ attention will be on the US jobs report for January, which is also the first of the Biden presidency. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are now forecasting a +200k increase in nonfarm payrolls, after total jobless claims fell by 1.73 million since the last report and the ADP print surprised to the upside (+174k). This comes after the -140k decrease in jobs back in December (which was the first monthly decline since the height of the pandemic). However, that increase likely won’t be enough to shift the unemployment rate, which they think will remain unchanged at 6.7%, so it would be no surprise if the Biden administration seize upon the jobs report to pressure Congress to act swiftly on their stimulus proposal. Ahead of the jobs report, there were some promising signs from the latest weekly initial jobless claims, with the numbers for the week through January 30 falling to a 9-week low of 779k (vs. 830k expected), while the continuing claims figure for the week through January 23 fell to a post-pandemic low of 4.592m (vs. 4.7m expected). That said, both figures remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

In terms of the pandemic, restrictions were relaxed all over the US yesterday as case counts continue to fall as the holiday wave is squarely behind us in many states. Here in the UK, the Times reported that officials are working on a “vaccine passport” to facilitate tourism.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, US factory orders for December rose by +1.1% (vs. +0.7% expected), while the November data was also revised up three-tenths. Separately, Euro Area retail sales rose by +2.0% in December (vs. +2.8% expected), and the January construction PMIs from Germany (46.6) and the UK (49.2) were both beneath the 50-mark in contractionary territory.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned US jobs report for January is likely to be the highlight. Other data releases include December data on German factory orders, Italian retail sales and the US trade balance. Separately, central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey and the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/05/2021 - 07:58

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Spread & Containment

Revving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry

With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.

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Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive.”

But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As the inaugural chair of the University of Florida’s department of tourism, hospitality and event management, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent a growing share of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them.

And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada.
The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Katherine Fu

The future of tourism is in events and experiences

Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the U.S. alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both industry leaders and academics are paying attention.

Event tourism is also key to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated an estimated $422 million for the local economy and drew record-breaking crowds to the city’s hotels.

That’s why when Formula One announced it would be making a 10-year commitment to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was eager to spread the news. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated $100 million in tax revenue, the head of that agency later announced.

Why Formula One?

Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated about $2.6 billion in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and 27% from 2019, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019.

This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500.

Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur.
Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix. Rachel Fu, CC BY

That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond.

This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.

How hospitality and business programs should prepare students

To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential.

Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on environmental responsibility in recent years. While some critics have been skeptical of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both contributes to climate change and is threatened by it. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism.

Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important.

Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the younger generation’s growing interest in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts.

Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow

F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a strategic move in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.

Looking ahead in 2024, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in broadcasting technology and evolving sponsorship models are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on Feb. 23, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.

Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Spread & Containment

Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady…

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Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances during the first half of 2023. In this post, we interpret the recent drop in ON RRP take-up through the lens of the channels that we identify in our recent Staff Report as driving its initial increase.

ON RRP Take-up Has Been Decreasing since June 2023…

A blue single-line chart depicts ON RRP take-pp from 2020  through the end of 2023 in trillions of U.S. dollars. The chart shows a steady increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022. Ater a period of relatively stable balances in the first half of 2023, the chart shows a recent drop in ON RRP take-up.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis. FRED database.

Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs

As the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased the supply of reserves to the banking system and, as a result, banks’ balance sheets also grew. Reserves increased from $1.6 trillion—or 9 percent of banks assets—in January 2020 to $3.2 trillion—or 16 percent of bank assets—over the following three months, reaching a historical maximum of 19 percent of banks’ assets in September 2021. As the chart below shows, bank assets also grew from $18 trillion in January of 2020 to $20 trillion in April 2020, and continued to increase to $23 trillion in May 2023.

As banks’ balance sheets expand, regulatory ratios—such as the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)—are likely to become tighter for some institutions. Banks react to increased balance-sheet costs by pushing some of their deposits toward the money market fund (MMF) industry—for instance, by lowering the rate paid on bank deposits—and reducing their demand for short-term debt. As we explain in our paper, both effects are likely to have boosted ON RRP take-up during March 2021 – May 2023, as most MMFs are eligible to invest in the ON RRP and do so especially when alternative investment options, such as banks’ wholesale short-term debt—including repos by dealers affiliated with a bank holding company—dwindle.

Likely, these effects have subsided relative to 2022. Indeed, since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023, below the average of 16 percent observed between March 2020 and May 2023. Since the SLR treats all assets in the same way regardless of their riskiness, large banks’ balance-sheet expansions are particularly costly if they are used to finance safe assets with low returns. Therefore, though bank assets have remained relatively stable, the recent decline in the ratio of reserves to bank assets has likely reduced banks’ overall balance-sheet costs.

…while Bank Assets and Reserves Relative to Bank Assets Have Remained Roughly Constant.

 A two-line chart depicts bank assets in red and the ratio of bank reserves to assets in blue from 2020 to late 2023. Since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED database.

Consistent with a decrease in banks’ balance-sheet costs (and an increase in the supply of bank debt), the interest rates at which banks and broker dealers borrow via overnight Treasury-backed repos have increased since the fourth quarter of 2022 and are now a few basis points above the ON RRP rate (see chart below). This positive rate differential pushes MMFs away from investing at the ON RRP facility and into private repos.

The SOFR-ON RRP Spread Has Been Positive…

A blue single-line chart depicts the spread between the secured overnight financing rate and the ON RRP rate in basis points from 2020 through the end of 2024. The rate differential has been positive since early 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, FRED database.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can affect ON RRP take-up by MMFs in two ways. First, the interest-rate pass-through of MMF shares is higher than that of bank deposits; as a result, the size of the MMF industry comoves with the monetary policy cycle as investors switch from bank deposits to MMF shares when the policy rate increases. Though the assets of the MMF industry are at an all-time high, the pace of the increase has somewhat decreased recently, consistent with a slower pace of monetary policy tightening; moreover, the share of MMF assets managed by government funds—the ones most likely to invest in the ON RRP—has decreased since June 2022 by 7 percentage points.

Second, monetary policy can affect MMFs’ take-up at the ON RRP also through its effect on interest-rate uncertainty. Higher uncertainty leads MMFs to rebalance their portfolios toward investments with shorter duration; the ON RRP is one such investment as it is overnight. Indeed, interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023. Recently, however, the increase has been partially reversed. Indeed, the average level of the MOVE was 125.6 in the first half of 2023 but declined to 117.3 in the second half of the year.

…while Interest-Rate Uncertainty Has Been Decreasing.

A blue single line chart shows that interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

The Supply of T-bills

A third driver of ON RRP take-up is the supply of T-bills. The Federal Government has expanded the supply of T-bills dramatically in 2023: T-bills outstanding increased from $3.7 trillion at the end of 2022 to $5.3 trillion at the end of September 2023, with a $1.3 trillion increase since June. As the supply of T-bills grows, the investment options of MMFs—and especially of government funds, which represent 83 percent of the industry and can only invest in short-term government debt and repos backed by government debt—expand and, as a result, their investment in the ON RRP dwindles. In our staff report, we estimate that a $100 billion increase in the amount of T-bill issuance reduces the proportion of ON RRP investment in a government-MMF portfolio by 2.3 percentage points, relative to that in a prime-MMF portfolio; since average monthly T-bill issuance went from $1.12 trillion in the period from 2022:Q1-2023:Q1 to $1.53 trillion in 2023:Q2-2023:Q3, this effect on portfolio rebalancing amounts to an additional decrease in ON RRP investment of roughly $350 billion.

Summing It Up

The increase in ON RRP take-up between 2021 and May 2023 was driven by a series of factors: a rise in banks’ balance-sheet costs due to the expansion of the supply of reserves in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid hikes in policy rates aimed at fighting inflation and the resulting increase in interest-rate uncertainty, and the decrease in the T-bill supply of 2021-22 resulting from the normalization of public debt after the COVID-19  crisis.

These factors have reversed: the Federal Reserve restarted running off its balance sheet after the temporary expansion during the banking turmoil of March 2023; the growth of the banking system waned while the ratio of reserves to asset decreased; the pace of interest-rate hikes slowed down; and the T-bill supply increased again. If these dynamics persist in the months ahead, ON RRP take-up may continue to decrease. Such a steady decline would be consistent with that observed in early 2018, when investment at the ON RRP gradually disappeared as the Federal Reserve continued to normalize the size of its balance sheet and reserves in the banking system became less abundant.

Gara Afonso is the head of Banking Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Gabriele La Spada is a financial research economist in Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.   

How to cite this post:
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada, “Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 19, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

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